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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Group velocity and nonlinear dispersive wave propagation.

By the use of a Hamiltonian formulation, a basic group velocity is defined as the derivative of frequency with respect to wavenumber keeping action density constant, and is shown to represent an incremental action velocity in the general nonlinear case. The stability treatment of Whitham and Lighthill is extended to several dimensions. The water-wave analysis of Whitham (1967) is extended to two space dimensions, and is shown to predict oblique-mode instabilities for kh smaller than 1.36. A treatment of Lighthill's (1965) solution in the one-dimensional elliptic case resolves the problem of the energy distribution in the solution past the critical time.

Hayes, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

On accuracy conditions for the numerical computation of waves

The Helmholtz equation (Delta + K(2)n(2))u = f with a variable index of refraction n, and a suitable radiation condition at infinity serves as a model for a wide variety of wave propagation problems. Such problems can be solved numerically by first truncating the given unbounded domain and imposing a suitable outgoing radiation condition on an artificial boundary and then solving the resulting problem on the bounded domain by direct discretization (for example, using a finite element method). In practical applications, the mesh size h and the wave number K, are not independent but are constrained by the accuracy of the desired computation. It will be shown that the number of points per wavelength, measured by (Kh)(-1), is not sufficient to determine the accuracy of a given discretization. For example, the quantity K(3)h(2) is shown to determine the accuracy in the L(2) norm for a second-order discretization method applied to several propagation models.

Bayliss, A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

On accuracy conditions for the numerical computation of waves

The Helmholtz equation (Delta + K(2)n(2))u = f with a variable index of refraction n, and a suitable radiation condition at infinity serves as a model for a wide variety of wave propagation problems. Such problems can be solved numerically by first truncating the given unbounded domain and imposing a suitable outgoing radiation condition on an artificial boundary and then solving the resulting problem on the bounded domain by direct discretization (for example, using a finite element method). In practical applications, the mesh size h and the wave number K, are not independent but are constrained by the accuracy of the desired computation. It will be shown that the number of points per wavelength, measured by (Kh)(-1), is not sufficient to determine the accuracy of a given discretization. For example, the quantity K(3)h(2) is shown to determine the accuracy in the L(2) norm for a second-order discretization method applied to several propagation models.

Bayliss, A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The effect of parallel currents on auroral micropulsations

Field aligned currents play an important role in the global coupling between the magnetosphere and the ionosphere and in their relationship to the auroral phenomena. Moreover, there exists evidence that resonant oscillations are related to large-scale Birkeland currents. The spatial confinement of the field-aligned currents forms an inhomogeneous system susceptible to low-frequency oscillations, which can be excited due to periodic variations in the solar wind pressure or to the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability. In this paper we present a study of ultralow-frequency (ULF) oscillations in an inhomogeneous magnetic field formed by a large-scale current. We investigate the effects of the field-aligned currents on the generation of localized Alfven waves. The field oscillations are described by an eigenvalue wave equation which includes the effects of the field aligned currents and which produces a discrete spectrum of Alfven waves. These waves are observed mainly in three regions of the magnetosphere: in the magnetosheath, in the polar cusp, and in the plasmasphere. In the present study we limit our investigation to the auroral region.

Tavares, M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Can Kelvin-Helmholtz Instabilities of Jet-Like Structures and Plumes Cause Solar Wind Fluctuations at 1 AU?

The long high latitude sampling of Ulysses provides the opportunity to study fine structures. At latitudes poleward of approx. -60 deg, the solar wind had fluctuations in velocity gradients which were attributed to "microstreams". The data also suggested fluctuations characterized by magnetic plus thermal pressure balance structures ("PBS"). At higher frequencies, MHD turbulence was observed and found to be less evolved than in the ecliptic, but essentially independent of heliographic latitude. It is argued here that microstreams, PBS, and MHD turbulence could all be the remnants of mixing due to shear instabilities associated with plumes and other filamentarystructures ("jets") in coronal holes. To show this we simulate a plume-like jet in the presence of an ambient magnetic field. We find the presence of the ambient field reduces the growth rate of the instability, but the shear between a jet and its ambient still becomes unstable to the MHD Kelvin-Helmholtz ("KH") instability when the shear speed is larger than the largest local magnetosonic speed - a condition probably satisfied for plumes.

Shyamsundar, Parhi↗
NASA NTRS1990

Limiting concentrations of activated mononucleotides necessary for poly(C)-directed elongation of oligoguanylates

Selected imidazolide-activated nucleotides have been subjected to hydrolysis under conditions similar to those that favor their template-directed oligomerization. Rate constants of hydrolysis of the P-N bond in guanosine 5'-monophosphate 2-methylimidazolide (2-MeImpG) and in guanosine 5'-monophosphate imidazolide (ImpG), kh, have been determined in the presence/absence of magnesium ion as a function of temperature and polycytidylate [poly(C)] concentration. Using the rate constant of hydrolysis of 2-MeImpG and the rate constant of elongation, i.e., the reaction of an oligoguanylate with 2-MeImpG in the presence of poly(C) acting as template, the limiting concentration of 2-MeImpG necessary for oligonucleotide elongation to compete with hydrolysis can be calculated. The limiting concentration is defined as the initial concentration of monomer that results in its equal consumption by hydrolysis and by elongation. These limiting concentrations of 2-MeImpG are found to be 1.7 mM at 37 degrees C and 0.36 mM at 1 degrees C. Boundary conditions in the form of limiting concentration of activated nucleotide may be used to evaluate a prebiotic model for chemical synthesis of biopolymers. For instance, the limiting concentration of monomer can be used as a basis of comparison among catalytic, but nonenzymatic, RNA-type systems. We also determined the rate constant of dimerization of 2-MeImpG, k2 = 0.45 +/- 0.06 M-1 h-1 in the absence of poly(C), and 0.45 +/- 0.06 less than or equal to k2 less than or equal to 0.97 +/- 0.13 M-1 h-1 in its presence at 37 degrees C and pH 7.95.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS).

NASA Discipline Number 52-20↗
NASA NTRS2005

Modeling of Turbulence Effects on Liquid Jet Atomization and Breakup

Recent experimental investigations and physical modeling studies have indicated that turbulence behaviors within a liquid jet have considerable effects on the atomization process. This study aims to model the turbulence effect in the atomization process of a cylindrical liquid jet. Two widely used models, the Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of Reitz (blob model) and the Taylor-Analogy-Breakup (TAB) secondary droplet breakup by O Rourke et al, are further extended to include turbulence effects. In the primary breakup model, the level of the turbulence effect on the liquid breakup depends on the characteristic scales and the initial flow conditions. For the secondary breakup, an additional turbulence force acted on parent drops is modeled and integrated into the TAB governing equation. The drop size formed from this breakup regime is estimated based on the energy balance before and after the breakup occurrence. This paper describes theoretical development of the current models, called "T-blob" and "T-TAB", for primary and secondary breakup respectivety. Several assessment studies are also presented in this paper.

Trinh, Huu P.↗
NASA NTRS2006

MHD Flow Visualization of Magnetopause and Polar Cusps Vortices

Detailed analysis of Wind, Geotail, and Cluster data shows how magnetopause boundary and polar cusps vortices associated with high speed streams can be a carrier of energy flux to the Earth s magnetosphere. For our analysis time interval, March 29 . - April 5 2002, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is primarily northward and MHD simulations of vortices along the flanks within nine hours of the time interval suggest that a Kelvin Helmholtz (KH) instability is likely present. Vortices were classified by solar wind input provided by the Wind satellite located 70-80 RE upstream from Earth. We present statistics for a total of 304 vortices found near the ecliptic plane on the magnetopause flanks, 273 with northward IMF and 31 with southward IMF. The vortices generated under northward IMF were more driven into the dawnside than into the duskside, being substantially more ordered on the duskside. Most of the vortices were large in scale, up to 10 RE, and with a rotation axis closely aligned with the ZGSE direction. They rotated preferentially clockwise on the dawnside, and. counter-clockwise on the duskside. Those generated under southward IMF were less ordered, fewer in number, and also smaller in diameter. Significant vortex activity occurred on the nightside region of the magnetosphere for these southward cases in contrast to the northward IMF cases on which most of the activity was driven onto the magnetopause flanks. Magnetopause crossings seen by the Geotail spacecraft for the time interval were analyzed and compared with the MHD simulation to validate our results. Vortices over the polar cusps are also being analyzed and the simulation results will be compared to the multi-point measurements of the four Cluster satellites.

Collado-Vega, Y. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

MHD Flow Visualization of Magnetopause and Polar Cusps Vortices

Detailed analysis of Wind, Geotail, and Cluster data shows how magnetopause boundary and polar cusps vortices associated with high speed streams can be a carrier of energy flux to the Earth's magnetosphere. For our analysis time interval, March 29 . - April 5 2002, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) is primarily northward and MHD simulations of vortices along the flanks within nine hours of the time interval suggest that a Kelvin Helmholtz (KH) instability is likely present. Vortices were classified by solar wind input provided by the Wind satellite located 70-80 RE upstream from Earth. We present statistics for a total of 304 vortices found near the ecliptic plane on the magnetopause flanks, 273 with northward IMF and 31 with southward IMF. The vortices generated under northward IMF were more driven into the dawnside than into the duskside, being substantially more ordered on the duskside. Most of the vortices were large in scale, up to 10 RE, and with a rotation axis closely aligned with the Z(sub GSE) direction. They rotated preferentially clockwise on the dawnside, and. counter-clockwise on the duskside. Those generated under southward IMF were less ordered, fewer in number, and also smaller in diameter. Significant vortex activity occurred on the nightside region of the magnetosphere for these southward cases in contrast to the northward IMF cases on which most of the activity was driven onto the magnetopause flanks. Magnetopause crossings seen by the Geotail spacecraft for the time interval were analyzed and compared with the MHD simulation to validate our results. Vortices over the polar cusps are also being analyzed and the simulation results will be compared to the multi-point measurements of the four Cluster satellites.

Collado-Vega, Y. M.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Modeling of Turbulence Effect on Liquid Jet Atomization

Recent studies indicate that turbulence behaviors within a liquid jet have considerable effect on the atomization process. Such turbulent flow phenomena are encountered in most practical applications of common liquid spray devices. This research aims to model the effects of turbulence occurring inside a cylindrical liquid jet to its atomization process. The two widely used atomization models Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instability of Reitz and the Taylor analogy breakup (TAB) of O'Rourke and Amsden portraying primary liquid jet disintegration and secondary droplet breakup, respectively, are examined. Additional terms are formulated and appropriately implemented into these two models to account for the turbulence effect. Results for the flow conditions examined in this study indicate that the turbulence terms are significant in comparison with other terms in the models. In the primary breakup regime, the turbulent liquid jet tends to break up into large drops while its intact core is slightly shorter than those without turbulence. In contrast, the secondary droplet breakup with the inside liquid turbulence consideration produces smaller drops. Computational results indicate that the proposed models provide predictions that agree reasonably well with available measured data.

Trinh, H. P.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Status of NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 50,000 h and 900 kg Throughput

The NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) project is developing the next-generation solar electric propulsion ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system in order to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced propulsion capabilities. As part of a comprehensive thruster service life assessment, the NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005 to demonstrate throughput capability and validate thruster service life modeling. The NEXT LDT exceeded its original qualification throughput requirement of 450 kg in December 2009. To date, the NEXT LDT has set records for electric propulsion lifetime and has demonstrated 50,170 hours of operation, processed 902 kg of propellant, and delivered 34.9 MN-s of total impulse. The NEXT thruster design mitigated several life-limiting mechanisms encountered in the NSTAR design, dramatically increasing service life capability. Various component erosion rates compare favorably to the pretest predictions based upon semi-empirical ion thruster models. The NEXT LDT either met or exceeded all of its original goals regarding lifetime demonstration, performance and wear characterization, and modeling validation. In light of recent budget constraints and to focus on development of other components of the NEXT ion propulsion system, a voluntary termination procedure for the NEXT LDT began in April 2013. As part of this termination procedure, a comprehensive post-test performance characterization was conducted across all operating conditions of the NEXT throttle table. These measurements were found to be consistent with prior data that show minimal degradation of performance over the thruster's 50 kh lifetime. Repair of various diagnostics within the test facility is presently planned while keeping the thruster under high vacuum conditions. These diagnostics will provide additional critical information on the current state of the thruster, in regards to performance and wear, prior to destructive post-test analyses performed on the thruster under atmosphere conditions.

Life test↗
NASA NTRS2015

Status of NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) Long-Duration Test as of 50,000 h and 900 kg Throughput

The NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster (NEXT) project is developing the next-generation solar electric propulsion ion propulsion system with significant enhancements beyond the state-of-the-art NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) ion propulsion system in order to provide future NASA science missions with enhanced propulsion capabilities. As part of a comprehensive thruster service life assessment, the NEXT Long-Duration Test (LDT) was initiated in June 2005 to demonstrate throughput capability and validate thruster service life modeling. The NEXT LDT exceeded its original qualification throughput requirement of 450 kg in December 2009. To date, the NEXT LDT has set records for electric propulsion lifetime and has demonstrated 50,170 h of operation, processed 902 kg of propellant, and delivered 34.9 MN-s of total impulse. The NEXT thruster design mitigated several life-limiting mechanisms encountered in the NSTAR design, dramatically increasing service life capability. Various component erosion rates compare favorably to the pretest predictions based upon semi-empirical ion thruster models. The NEXT LDT either met or exceeded all of its original goals regarding lifetime demonstration, performance and wear characterization, and modeling validation. In light of recent budget constraints and to focus on development of other components of the NEXT ion propulsion system, a voluntary termination procedure for the NEXT LDT began in April 2013. As part of this termination procedure, a comprehensive post-test performance characterization was conducted across all operating conditions of the NEXT throttle table. These measurements were found to be consistent with prior data that show minimal degradation of performance over the thruster's 50 kh lifetime. Repair of various diagnostics within the test facility is presently planned while keeping the thruster under high vacuum conditions. These diagnostics will provide additional critical information on the current state of the thruster, in regards to performance and wear, prior to destructive post-test analyses performed on the thruster under atmosphere conditions.

Ion thruster↗
NASA NTRS2019

Completing the development of the 12.5 kW Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS)

The Hall Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) is a 12.5 kW Hall thruster co-developed by NASA Glenn Research Center and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. HERMeS incorporates magnetic shielding to eliminate discharge channel erosion in order to reach its design lifetime of 50 kh at specific impulses up to 3000 s. The capabilities of the HERMeS thruster technology transferred to Aerojet Rocketdyne under the Advanced Electric Propulsion System (AEPS) program are described. HERMeS hardware testing is now focused at reducing risk and supporting the qualification of the AEPS thruster. These includes a series of progressively longer wear tests, plasma characterization and modeling supporting life qualification, magnetic field optimization, and environmental testing. Initial results from AEPS thruster testing show operation consistent with the HERMeS thrusters and steady-state operation has been achieved at 600 V, 12.5 kW.

Herman, Daniel↗
NASA NTRS2021

Long-Duration Wear Testing of the ASTRAEUS Thruster, Phase I: 50 kg Xe Throughput

The thruster component of the Ascendant Sub-kW Transcelestial Electric Propulsion System successfully completed a propellant throughput demonstration of 50 kg Xe. The thruster was operated for a total of 3,287 h, of which 97.9% was spent at 300 V – 1000 W, and generated 790 kN-s of total impulse. Thrust, telemetry, and temperature measurements periodically recorded at four operating conditions spanning 200 – 500 V and 200 – 1000 W revealed constant performance across the full test duration. High-fidelity plasma simulations of the erosion of the thruster’s downstream faces suggest a theoretical lifetime capability of >30 kh, corresponding to propellant throughput of >450 kg Xe and a total impulse of >7 MNs, at the 300 V – 1000 W operating condition. The test was voluntarily paused after 50 kg Xe throughput to take these erosion measurements before the test was resumed at a different operating condition.

Goebel, Dan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Propellant Throughput Sub-kW Electric Propulsion System for Deep Space Science and Exploration

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is maturing high-propellant throughput sub-kilowatt electric propulsion technologies to enable small spacecraft deep space science and exploration missions with high delta-v requirements. The pathfinder model (PM) propulsion system consists of the H71M-PM Hall-effect thruster, a breadboard 1-kW power processing unit (PPU), and a propellant flow control system. The propulsion system requirements balance the needs of various high delta-v NASA and commercial industry mission concepts to achieve a design that both enables a variety of NASA small spacecraft deep space missions, while remaining viable for select commercial applications. The H71M-PM thruster has completed performance characterization and three 500-h short duration wear tests (SDWT). The propulsion system provides stable thrust generation over a wide range of operating conditions from 200 W to 1 kW, and 200 V to 400 V. The thruster has demonstrated a thrust as high as 68 mN at 300 V and 1 kW. The thruster has similarly demonstrated a specific impulse of 1850 s at 400 V and 1 kW. Key surfaces were machined between each SDWT to simulate accelerated discharge channel and pole cover erosion. Profilometry scans across masked pole cover surfaces were conducted to determine erosion rates. SDWT results support that a target thruster lifetime of 14 kh with 50% margin is achievable. Component testing has demonstrated propellant azimuthal flow uniformity better than ± 2 percent of the nominal value, azimuthal magnetic field uniformity better than ± 0.5 percent of the nominal value, and cathode heater cycle testing to greater than 30,000 cycles. Propulsion system integrated system testing is planned to use the H71M-PM and a breadboard 1-kW PPU. Pathfinder model test results are now supporting the design of the H71M-EM engineering model thruster. A second-generation breadboard PPU has been fabricated and is currently under test. NASA has made these technologies available to U.S. industry through a no cost, nonexclusive license agreement.

Hall↗
NASA NTRS2021

Long-Duration Wear Testing of the ASTRAEUS Hall Thruster, Phases II & III: 72 kg Xe Throughput & 1.2 MN-s Total Impulse

The thruster component of the Ascendant Sub-kW Transcelestial Electric Propulsion System successfully completed a propellant throughput demonstration of 72 kg Xe in a long-duration wear test planned to eventually exceed 100 kg. The thruster has been operated for a total of 5450 h over three operating conditions: 3287 h at 300 V – 1000 W, 1745 h at 500 V – 1000 W, and 417 h at 400 V – 600 W. A total of 1.2 MN-s of impulse has been demonstrated to date. Thrust, telemetry, and temperature measurements periodically recorded at four operating conditions spanning 200 – 500 V and 200 – 1000 W revealed constant performance across the full test duration. The erosion of the downstream faces of the thruster was observed to be higher than anticipated after the first 5032 h of thruster operation. This issue was traced to the application of sub-nominal magnetic field strengths throughout the LDWT, caused by an electrical-related ground-support equipment issue, which resulted in a downstream shift of the discharge plasma and enhanced erosion of the thruster’s pole covers. Nevertheless, the thruster performance and operational behaviour remained unaffected. High-fidelity plasma simulations of the erosion of the thruster’s downstream faces, supported by prior short-duration wear testing, suggest a theoretical lifetime capability of >30 kh, corresponding to propellant throughput of >450 kg Xe and a total impulse of >7 MNs, at the 300 V – 1000 W operating condition. The test was voluntarily paused after 68 kg Xe and 72 kg Xe throughput, respectively, to take these erosion measurements at the 500 V and 400 V operating conditions before the test was resumed at a different operating condition.

Goebel, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the critical behavior near ferromagnetic to paramagnetic phase transition in CrTe 1-x Se x alloys: An experimental study

For this study, we used the conventional solid-state reaction method to prepare stoichiometric samples of CrTe 1-x Se x , where 0 ≤ x ≤ 0.10, and investigated the structural and critical behavior of the prepared samples. Room temperature powder X-ray diffraction, along with Rietveld refinement, revealed the emergence of the NiAs structure with P6 3 /mmc (194) space group with increasing Se substitution. The high-temperature linear fit to inverse of the dc-susceptibility versus temperature for the mother sample resulted in an effective moment of 3.65μ B Cr with Curie-Weiss temperature near 335K, which is slightly higher than the Tc of ~332K obtained from the inflection point of magnetization versus temperature. Magnetization isotherms were employed to investigate the critical behavior of ferromagnetic CrTe 1-x Se x with 0.0 ≤ x ≤ 0.10 near their Curie temperatures (Tc). The magnetic behavior near Tc was found to follow 3D mean-field critical exponents with a second-order phase transition in all samples investigated. We fine-tuned the critical exponents (β, γ, and δ) using a combination of an iteration technique, the Kouvel-Fisher method, and modified Arrott plots. All samples follow a mean field behavior, with Tc ranging from 298 to 340K. The acquired values exhibit self-consistency, as indicated by the results from the Widom scaling relation. Furthermore, the magnetization isotherms exhibit a universal scaling behavior, providing additional credence to the calculated critical exponents.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗