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New directions for Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods in optimum design

Developments and applications of artificial intelligence (AI) methods in the design of structural systems is reviewed. Principal shortcomings in the current approach are emphasized, and the need for some degree of formalism in the development environment for such design tools is underscored. Emphasis is placed on efforts to integrate algorithmic computations in expert systems.

Hajela, Prabhat

Methods for design and evaluation of integrated hardware-software systems for concurrent computation

Research activities and publications are briefly summarized. The major tasks reviewed are: (1) VAX implementation of the PISCES parallel programming environment; (2) Apollo workstation network implementation of the PISCES environment; (3) FLEX implementation of the PISCES environment; (4) sparse matrix iterative solver in PSICES Fortran; (5) image processing application of PISCES; and (6) a formal model of concurrent computation being developed.

Pratt, T. W.

Crack Turning Mechanics of Composite Wing Skin Panels

The safety of future composite wing skin integral stiffener panels requires a full understanding of failure mechanisms of these damage tolerance critical structures under both in-plane and bending loads. Of primary interest is to derive mathematical models using fracture mechanics in anisotropic cracked plate structures, to assess the crack turning mechanisms, and thereby to enhance the residual strength in the integral stiffener composite structures. The use of fracture mechanics to assess the failure behavior in a cracked structure requires the identification of critical fracture parameters which govern the severity of stress and deformation field ahead of the flaw, and which can be evaluated using information obtained from the flaw tip. In the three-year grant, the crack-tip fields under plane deformation, crack-tip fields for anisotropic plates and anisotropic shells have been obtained. In addition, methods for determining the stress intensity factors, energy release rate, and the T-stresses have been proposed and verified. The research accomplishments can be summarized as follows: (1) Under plane deformation in anisotropic solids, the asymptotic crack-tip fields have been obtained using Stroh formalism; (2) The T-stress and the coefficient of the second term for sigma(sub y), g(sub 32), have been obtained using path-independent integral, the J-integral and Betti's reciprocal theorem together with auxiliary fields; (3) With experimental data performed by NASA, analyses indicated that the mode-I critical stress intensity factor K(sub Q) provides a satisfactory characterization of fracture initiation for a given laminate thickness, provided the failure is fiber-dominated and crack extends in a self-similar manner; (4) The high constraint specimens, especially for CT specimens, due to large T-stress and large magnitude of negative g(sub 32) term may be expected to inhibit the crack extension in the same plane and promote crack turning; (5) Crack turning out of crack plane in generally anisotropic solids under plane deformation has been studied; (6) The role of T-stress and the higher-order term of sigma(sub y) on the crack turning and stability of the kinked crack has been quantified; (7) Asymptotic crack-tip fields including the effect of transverse shear deformation (Reissner plate theory) in an anisotropic plate under bending, twisting moments, and transverse shear loads has been presented; (8) The expression of the path-independent J-integral in terms of the generalized stress and strain has been derived; (9) Asymptotic crack-tip fields including the effect of transverse shear deformation (Reissner shallow shell theory) in a general anisotropic shell has been developed; (10) The Stroh formalism was used to characterize the crack tip fields in shells up to the second term and the energy release rate was expressed in a very compact form.

Yuan, F. G.

Chemical Thermodynamics and the Mathematical Integration of Reaction Kinetics

Key advances in the development of numerical methods for non-reacting compressible flows have been enabled by translating physical requirements into concrete numerical guidelines, such as the satisfaction of entropy inequalities for shock-capturing techniques [Lax, Contributions to Nonlinear Functional Analysis (1971) 603-634]. In the present work, we present nonlinear numerical analysis tools that draw from Chemical Thermodynamics , the branch of Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics that deals with chemical reactions. Through Gibbs formalism, chemical thermodynamics provides a well-known theoretical expression for the chemical equilibrium constant of a reaction in terms of reduced chemical potentials. A less-known, yet extremely valuable result, due to [Krambeck, Arch. Ration. Mech. Anal. , 38 (1970) 317], states that when this expression is implemented, mass-action kinetic models are consistent with the dynamical prescriptions of the 2nd law of thermodynamics. For fixed-temperature ordinary differential equations modeling constant-volume reacting gas mixtures, this leads to a decreasing Helmholtz free energy. If the temperature is allowed to vary in accordance with conservation of energy (1st law), this leads to the statement of increasing entropy. These nonlinear prescriptions can, and should be, used to further develop temporal integration techniques for reaction kinetics. We demonstrate that Krambeck's result holds even when the equilibrium constants are approximated from data. We prove this result by constructing the implicit free energy and the implicit entropy inherent to a given approximation. This is first done for a 5-species, 17-reaction model problem for air. With this structure established, elements of discrete entropy-stability theory [Tadmor, Acta Numer. , 12 (2003) 451] are leveraged to examine the consistency of time-integration schemes with these prescriptions. Using chemical potentials, one can compute the respective contributions of the kinetics model and of the temporal scheme to free energy/entropy variations. We introduce a nonlinear-stable version of the Discontinuous-Galerkin (DG) scheme in time which shows robustness improvements over the standard linearly-stable version. Most notably, the maximum timestep that can be resolved with the nonlinearly-stable variant tends to grow with polynomial order, in contrast to the linearly-stable variant. We generalize our constructions to arbitrary systems of reversible chemical reactions, ultimately showing that the compressible reacting Euler system admits the opposite of the implicitly constructed thermodynamic entropy as a mathematical entropy . This lays important theoretical foundations towards robust scheme development [Harten, J. Comput. Phys. 49 (1983) 151-164].

STMD

Real-time neutron multiplicity and source localization for criticality safety during fuel debris removal

Advancing neutron detection and analysis techniques for complex radiation environments is an ongoing focus in nuclear instrumentation and monitoring. This proposal presents research and development of a generalized real-time neutron monitoring and analysis system, applicable to any detector capable of producing time-tagged neutron count data. While the work is demonstrated using the Neutron Multiplication Analysis Detector (NoMAD), a modular 15-tube helium-3 (He-3) array, due to its availability, spatial resolution, and flexible deployment, the methods developed are extensible to other systems, including organic scintillators and fast digital detectors. This research investigates two complementary analytical techniques for real-time characterization of neutron emitting sources: neutron multiplicity estimation based on the Hage-Cifarelli formalism and spatial localization using supervised machine learning applied to spatial count rate patterns. These methods are designed to operate under dynamic, evolving conditions such as fuel debris retrieval or reactor startup, where neutron-emitting material geometries may be partially unknown or changing over time. By integrating statistical neutron emission data with spatial localization, this research aims to develop and evaluate methods for real time neutron monitoring, source characterization, and material verification. Key contributions include implementation of a low-latency data pipeline for continuous neutron multiplicity analysis, development and validation of machine learning models for spatial inference, and experimental evaluation of system performance under variable measurement conditions. The outcomes are intended to support applications in nuclear safeguards, verification, emergency response, and reactor startup.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND

Formalization of the Integral Calculus in the PVS Theorem Prover

The PVS Theorem prover is a widely used formal verification tool used for the analysis of safety-critical systems. The PVS prover, though fully equipped to support deduction in a very general logic framework, namely higher-order logic, it must nevertheless, be augmented with the definitions and associated theorems for every branch of mathematics and Computer Science that is used in a verification. This is a formidable task, ultimately requiring the contributions of researchers and developers all over the world. This paper reports on the formalization of the integral calculus in the PVS theorem prover. All of the basic definitions and theorems covered in a first course on integral calculus have been completed.The theory and proofs were based on Rosenlicht's classic text on real analysis and follow the traditional epsilon-delta method. The goal of this work was to provide a practical set of PVS theories that could be used for verification of hybrid systems that arise in air traffic management systems and other aerospace applications. All of the basic linearity, integrability, boundedness, and continuity properties of the integral calculus were proved. The work culminated in the proof of the Fundamental Theorem Of Calculus. There is a brief discussion about why mechanically checked proofs are so much longer than standard mathematics textbook proofs.

Butler, Ricky W.

Preliminary Application of Formal Verification to An Autonomy Architecture for Unmanned Aircraft

There is a desire to design autonomous systems in such a way that capabilities can be easily added or re- combined to produce new behaviors while preserving their safety properties. ICAROUS, a prototype software architecture for building safety-centric autonomous unmanned aircraft applications, is designed to support this type of extensibility and re-configurability. In ICAROUS, core capabilities are implemented as individual soft- ware services, so that enabling access to new capabilities simply requires adding new services. To make use of these capabilities, ICAROUS includes a specialized service that provides a general framework for config- uring the relative priorities, conditions, and rules that govern how different modules should be engaged and disengaged during flight. The inherent complexity of coordinating multiple modules under changing conditions makes it difficult to determine whether a particular configuration could have erroneous behaviors in certain circumstances. A robust set of integration tests can help discover errors, but testing can only realistically cover a relatively small proportion of total system behaviors. Developing good tests and interpreting the results to pinpoint the cause of errors when they arise can also be very time-consuming. To supplement testing, formal methods can be used to model and analyze complex systems, achieving better coverage and simplifying the process of finding, understanding, and fixing errors. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper explores the ap- plication of formal methods to ICAROUS. In particular, the Spin model checker is used to specify requirements for and model portions of the system, then verify whether the model satisfies the requirements and find and fix errors when it does not.

Formal Methods

Preliminary Application of Formal Verification to An Autonomy Architecture for Unmanned Aircraft

There is a desire to design autonomous systems in such a way that capabilities can be easily added or re-combined to produce new behaviors while preserving their safety properties. ICAROUS, a prototype software architecture for building safety-centric autonomous unmanned aircraft applications, is designed to support this type of extensibility and re-configurability. In ICAROUS, core capabilities are implemented as individual soft- ware services, so that enabling access to new capabilities simply requires adding new services. To make use of these capabilities, ICAROUS includes a specialized service that provides a general framework for config- uring the relative priorities, conditions, and rules that govern how different modules should be engaged and disengaged during flight. The inherent complexity of coordinating multiple modules under changing conditions makes it difficult to determine whether a particular configuration could have erroneous behaviors in certain circumstances. A robust set of integration tests can help discover errors, but testing can only realistically cover a relatively small proportion of total system behaviors. Developing good tests and interpreting the results to pinpoint the cause of errors when they arise can also be very time-consuming. To supplement testing, formal methods can be used to model and analyze complex systems, achieving better coverage and simplifying the process of finding, understanding, and fixing errors. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper explores the ap- plication of formal methods to ICAROUS. In particular, the Spin model checker is used to specify requirements for and model portions of the system, then verify whether the model satisfies the requirements and find and fix errors when it does not.

Formal Methods

Quantum theory of an optical maser. VI - Transient behavior.

The transient behavior of a laser is discussed using the quantum theory as did Scully and Lamb. The formal solution of the density-matrix equation is expressed in terms of exponentially decaying eigenmodes. Some of the lower decay constants are obtained numerically. The equations for the moments of the density matrix are then derived and solved by a truncation method. The equations of motion are integrated numerically for the case where the average number of photons in a laser cavity has the realistically large value 1.3 x 100,000. An alternative Fokker-Planck-equation approach is discussed.

Wang, Y. K.

Principles for Integrating Mars Analog Science, Operations, and Technology Research

During the Apollo program, the scientific community and NASA used terrestrial analog sites for understanding planetary features and for training astronauts to be scientists. Human factors studies (Harrison, Clearwater, & McKay 1991; Stuster 1996) have focused on the effects of isolation in extreme environments. More recently, with the advent of wireless computing, we have prototyped advanced EVA technologies for navigation, scheduling, and science data logging (Clancey 2002b; Clancey et al., in press). Combining these interests in a single expedition enables tremendous synergy and authenticity, as pioneered by Pascal Lee's Haughton-Mars Project (Lee 2001; Clancey 2000a) and the Mars Society s research stations on a crater rim on Devon Island in the High Canadian Arctic (Clancey 2000b; 2001b) and the Morrison Formation of southeast Utah (Clancey 2002a). Based on this experience, the following principles are proposed for conducting an integrated science, operations, and technology research program at analog sites: 1) Authentic work; 2) PI-based projects; 3) Unencumbered baseline studies; 4) Closed simulations; and 5) Observation and documentation. Following these principles, we have been integrating field science, operations research, and technology development at analog sites on Devon Island and in Utah over the past five years. Analytic methods include work practice simulation (Clancey 2002c; Sierhuis et a]., 2000a;b), by which the interaction of human behavior, facilities, geography, tools, and procedures are formalized in computer models. These models are then converted into the runtime EVA system we call mobile agents (Clancey 2002b; Clancey et al., in press). Furthermore, we have found that the Apollo Lunar Surface Journal (Jones, 1999) provides a vast repository or understanding astronaut and CapCom interactions, serving as a baseline for Mars operations and quickly highlighting opportunities for computer automation (Clancey, in press).

Clancey, William J.

Towards a Rigorous Basis for Specific Operations Risk Assessment of UAS

The Specific Operations Risk Assessment (SORA) guidance represents the consensus of various national aviation authorities on a common process to identify, qualitatively assess, and manage the safety risk posed by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), when preparing the safety case required for regulatory approval to conduct certain types of operations. As such, it can be considered a de facto standard, being increasingly adopted by various relevant stakeholders. This paper first gives an overview of the SORA process and associated methods, identifying a number of inconsistencies in risk identification and assessment, also discussing plausible strategies to close the associated gaps. Then, we give a well-founded basis for the applicable concepts, such as barrier integrity, assurance, and robustness, following which we present a preliminary and simple probabilistic formalization of the underpinning barrier-based safety model. We illustrate our overall approach through a worked example, also discussing how a Bayesian framework can facilitate extending and enhancing our initial formalization. We conclude with a discussion of the opportunities afforded by our approach, such as a well-founded basis for barrier selection, whilst addressing the associated challenges. The main objective of this work is to complement the current SORA guidance through a principled, mathematicallybased approach to risk assessment, particularly when it is applied to higher-risk operational concepts that warrant greater rigor in safety assessment and assurance.

Safety Cases

Determination of the Fracture Parameters in a Stiffened Composite Panel

A modified J-integral, namely the equivalent domain integral, is derived for a three-dimensional anisotropic cracked solid to evaluate the stress intensity factor along the crack front using the finite element method. Based on the equivalent domain integral method with auxiliary fields, an interaction integral is also derived to extract the second fracture parameter, the T-stress, from the finite element results. The auxiliary fields are the two-dimensional plane strain solutions of monoclinic materials with the plane of symmetry at x(sub 3) = 0 under point loads applied at the crack tip. These solutions are expressed in a compact form based on the Stroh formalism. Both integrals can be implemented into a single numerical procedure to determine the distributions of stress intensity factor and T-stress components, T11, T13, and thus T33, along a three-dimensional crack front. The effects of plate thickness and crack length on the variation of the stress intensity factor and T-stresses through the thickness are investigated in detail for through-thickness center-cracked plates (isotropic and orthotropic) and orthotropic stiffened panels under pure mode-I loading conditions. For all the cases studied, T11 remains negative. For plates with the same dimensions, a larger size of crack yields larger magnitude of the normalized stress intensity factor and normalized T-stresses. The results in orthotropic stiffened panels exhibit an opposite trend in general. As expected, for the thicker panels, the fracture parameters evaluated through the thickness, except the region near the free surfaces, approach two-dimensional plane strain solutions. In summary, the numerical methods presented in this research demonstrate their high computational effectiveness and good numerical accuracy in extracting these fracture parameters from the finite element results in three-dimensional cracked solids.

Lin, Chung-Yi

A Critical Look at Coulomb Counting Approach for State of Charge Estimation in Batteries

In this paper, we consider the problem of state-of-charge estimation for rechargeable batteries. Coulomb counting is a well-known method for estimating the state of charge, and it is regarded as accurate as long as the battery capacity and the beginning state of charge are known. The Coulomb counting approach, on the other hand, is prone to inaccuracies from a variety of sources, and the magnitude of these errors has not been explored in the literature. We formally construct and quantify the state-of-charge estimate error during Coulomb counting due to four types of error sources: (1) current measurement error; (2) current integration approximation error; (3) battery capacity uncertainty; and (4) timing oscillator error/drift. It is demonstrated that the state-of-charge error produced can be either time-cumulative or state-of-charge-proportional. Time-cumulative errors accumulate over time and have the potential to render the state-of-charge estimation utterly invalid in the long term. The proportional errors of the state of charge rise with the accumulated state of charge and reach their worst value within one charge/discharge cycle. The study presents methods for reducing time-cumulative and state-of-charge-proportional mistakes through simulation analysis.

Battery management system

From Requirements to Autonomous Flight: An Overview of the Monitoring ICAROUS Project

The Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems(ICAROUS) is a software architecture incorporating a set of algorithms to enable autonomous operations of unmanned aircraft applications. This paper provides an overview of Monitoring ICAROUS, a project whose objective is to provide a formal approach to generating runtime monitors for autonomous systems from requirements written in a structured natural language. This approach integrates FRET, a formal requirement elicitation and authoring tool, and Copilot, a runtime verification framework. FRET is used to specify formal requirements in structured natural language. These requirements are translated into temporal logic formulae. Copilot is then used to generate executable runtime monitors from these temporal logic specifications. The generated monitors are directly integrated into ICAROUS to perform runtime verification during flight.

Formal Methods

Application of the generalized Galerkin method to the computation of fluid flows.

The purpose of this paper is to show that most existing methods for the calculation of fluid flows can be interpreted as special applications of a single mathematical formalism. This formalism, called the generalized Galerkin method, then provides a single conceptual framework for comparing various methods in terms of convergence and accuracy. The method is presented in sufficient mathematical detail to permit its interpretation as a projection in function space. In order to demonstrate the basic thesis, finite difference, finite element, strip integral, and classical integral methods of boundary layer theory are developed by application of the method.

Murphy, J. D.

Monitoring ICAROUS: From Requirements to Autonomous Flight

The Independent Configurable Architecture for Reliable Operations of Unmanned Systems (ICAROUS) is a software architecture incorporating a set of algorithms to enable autonomous operations of unmanned aircraft applications. This paper provides an overview of Monitoring ICAROUS, a project whose objective is to provide a formal approach to generating runtime monitors for autonomous systems from requirements written in a structured natural language. This approach integrates FRET, a formal requirement elicitation and authoring tool, and Copilot, a runtime verification framework. FRET is used to specify formal requirements in structured natural language. These requirements are translated into temporal logic formulae. Copilot is then used to generate executable runtime monitors from these temporal logic specifications. The generated monitors are directly integrated into ICAROUS to perform runtime verification during flight.

Formal Methods

Formal and heuristic system decomposition methods in multidisciplinary synthesis

The multidisciplinary interactions which exist in large scale engineering design problems provide a unique set of difficulties. These difficulties are associated primarily with unwieldy numbers of design variables and constraints, and with the interdependencies of the discipline analysis modules. Such obstacles require design techniques which account for the inherent disciplinary couplings in the analyses and optimizations. The objective of this work was to develop an efficient holistic design synthesis methodology that takes advantage of the synergistic nature of integrated design. A general decomposition approach for optimization of large engineering systems is presented. The method is particularly applicable for multidisciplinary design problems which are characterized by closely coupled interactions among discipline analyses. The advantage of subsystem modularity allows for implementation of specialized methods for analysis and optimization, computational efficiency, and the ability to incorporate human intervention and decision making in the form of an expert systems capability. The resulting approach is not a method applicable to only a specific situation, but rather, a methodology which can be used for a large class of engineering design problems in which the system is non-hierarchic in nature.

Bloebaum, Christina L.

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.