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At least 109 records · Page 6

Interpreting biomarker data from the COPHES/DEMOCOPHES twin projects: Using external exposure data to understand biomarker differences among countries

In 2011 and 2012, the COPHES/DEMOCOPHES twin projects performed the first ever harmonized human biomonitoring survey in 17 European countries. In more than 1800 mother–child pairs, individual lifestyle data were collected and cadmium, cotinine and certain phthalate metabolites were measured in urine. Total mercury was determined in hair samples. While the main goal of the COPHES/DEMOCOPHES twin projects was to develop and test harmonized protocols and procedures, the goal of the current paper is to investigate whether the observed differences in biomarker values among the countries implementing DEMOCOPHES can be interpreted using information from external databases on environmental quality and lifestyle. In general, 13 countries having implemented DEMOCOPHES provided high-quality data from external sources that were relevant for interpretation purposes. However, some data were not available for reporting or were not in line with predefined specifications. Therefore, only part of the external information could be included in the statistical analyses. Nonetheless, there was a highly significant correlation between national levels of fish consumption and mercury in hair, the strength of antismoking legislation was significantly related to urinary cotinine levels, and we were able to show indications that also urinary cadmium levels were associated with environmental quality and food quality. These results again show the potential of biomonitoring data to provide added value for (the evaluation of) evidence-informed policy making. - Highlights: • External data was collected to interpret HBM data from DEMOCOPHES. • Hg in hair could be related to fish consumption across different countries. • Urinary cotinine was related to strictness of anti-smoking legislation. • Urinary Cd was borderline significantly related to air and food quality. • Lack of comparable data among countries hampered the analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Expert Radiation Oncologist Interpretations of Involved-Site Radiation Therapy Guidelines in the Management of Hodgkin Lymphoma

Purpose: Recently, involved-site radiation therapy (ISRT) guidelines have been developed and published to replace the previous concept of involved-field radiation therapy for patients with lymphoma. However, these ISRT guidelines may be interpreted in different ways, posing difficulties for prospective clinical trials. This study reports survey results regarding interpretation of the ISRT guidelines. Methods and Materials: Forty-four expert lymphoma radiation oncologists were asked to participate in a survey that included 7 different cases associated with 9 questions. The questions pertained to ISRT contouring and asked respondents to choose between 2 different answers (no “correct” answer) and a third write-in option allowed. Results: Fifty-two percent of those surveyed responded to the questionnaire. Among those who responded, 72% have practiced for >10 years, 46% have treated >20 Hodgkin lymphoma cases annually, and 100% were familiar with the ISRT concept. Among the 9 questions associated with the 7 cases, 3 had concordance among the expert radiation oncologists of greater than 70%. Six of the questions had less than 70% concordance (range, 56%-67%). Conclusions: Even among expert radiation oncologists, interpretation of ISRT guidelines is variable. Further guidance for ISRT field design will be needed to reduce variability among practicing physicians.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Interpretation of energy deposition data from historical operation of the transient test facility (TREAT)

The Transient Test Reactor (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory will resume operations in late 2017 after a 23 year hiatus while maintained in a cold standby state. Over that time period, computational power and simulation capabilities have increased substantially and now allow for new multiphysics modeling possibilities that were not practical or feasible for most of TREAT's operational history. Hence the return of TREAT to operational service provides a unique opportunity to apply state-of-the-art software and associated methods in the modeling and simulation of general three-dimensional steady state and kinetic behavior for reactor operation, and for coupling of the core power transient model to experiment simulations. However, measurements taken in previous operations were intended to predict power deposition in experimental samples, with little consideration of three-dimensional core power distributions. Hence, interpretation of data for the purpose of validation of modern methods can be challenging. For the research discussed herein, efforts are described for the process of proper interpretation of data from the most recent calibration experiments performed in the core, the M8 calibration series (M8-CAL). These measurements were taken between 1990 and 1993 using a set of fission wires and test fuel pins to estimate the power deposition that would be produced in fast reactor test fuel pins during the M8 experiment series. Because of the decision to place TREAT into a standby state in 1994, the M8 series of transients were never performed. However, potentially valuable information relevant for validation is available in the M8-CAL measurement data, if properly interpreted. This article describes the current state of the process of recovery of useful data from M8-CAL measurements and quantification of biases and uncertainties to potentially apply to the validation of multiphysics methods.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

PBPK and population modelling to interpret urine cadmium concentrations of the French population

As cadmium accumulates mainly in kidney, urinary concentrations are considered as relevant data to assess the risk related to cadmium. The French Nutrition and Health Survey (ENNS) recorded the concentration of cadmium in the urine of the French population. However, as with all biomonitoring data, it needs to be linked to external exposure for it to be interpreted in term of sources of exposure and for risk management purposes. The objective of this work is thus to interpret the cadmium biomonitoring data of the French population in terms of dietary and cigarette smoke exposures. Dietary and smoking habits recorded in the ENNS study were combined with contamination levels in food and cigarettes to assess individual exposures. A PBPK model was used in a Bayesian population model to link this external exposure with the measured urinary concentrations. In this model, the level of the past exposure was corrected thanks to a scaling function which account for a trend in the French dietary exposure. It resulted in a modelling which was able to explain the current urinary concentrations measured in the French population through current and past exposure levels. Risk related to cadmium exposure in the general French population was then assessed from external and internal critical values corresponding to kidney effects. The model was also applied to predict the possible urinary concentrations of the French population in 2030 assuming there will be no more changes in the exposures levels. This scenario leads to significantly lower concentrations and consequently lower related risk. - Highlights: • Interpretation of urine cadmium concentrations in France • PBPK and Bayesian population modelling of cadmium exposure • Assessment of the historic time-trend of the cadmium exposure in France • Risk assessment from current and future external and internal exposure.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Kinetic Isotope Effects: Interpretation and Prediction Using Degrees of Rate Control

Kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) have been used for decades in catalysis research as a tool for clarifying reaction mechanisms. Significant primary kinetic isotope effects have usually been interpreted as being a result of isotope substitution at a site of bond breaking (or forming) in the rate-determining step in the reaction mechanism. However, quantitative analysis of the magnitude of the KIE in complex multistep reaction mechanisms is seldom reported. We prove here that the logarithm of the rate ratio for two isotopes is the weighted average over all species in the mechanism of their standard-state free energy difference between the two isotopes, divided by RT. The weighting factor is the degree of rate control (DRC) for that species (e.g., transition state, intermediate, reactant) when the rate is measured separately for each isotope. It is instead the degree of selectivity ratio control (DSRC) when the KIE is measured as the product selectivity in a parallel competition between two isotopes within the same reactant molecule. Since only a few species have non-zero DRCs (or DSRCs) for most reactions, only these few contribute to this weighted average and the KIE. We show that this provides a simple way to interpret and quantitatively predict kinetic isotope effects that is powerful in the insights it provides, allowing one to evaluate directly which species contribute most to the KIE. By applying it to H/D KIEs in several example mechanisms, we further show that the traditional way of interpreting KIEs that focuses only on the rate-determining step can easily lead to misunderstanding of KIE and the reaction mechanism. Finally, this highlights the importance to consider the effect of isotope substitution on the energies of all species with large DRCs (i.e, those whose energies are kinetically relevant). This method also offers opportunities for quantitative validation of mechanism-based microkinetic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Projecting Large Fires in the Western US With an Interpretable and Accurate Hybrid Machine Learning Method

More frequent and widespread large fires are occurring in the western United States (US), yet reliable methods for predicting these fires, particularly with extended lead times and a high spatial resolution, remain challenging. In this study, we proposed an interpretable and accurate hybrid machine learning (ML) model, that explicitly represented the controls of fuel flammability, fuel availability, and human suppression effects on fires. The model demonstrated notable accuracy with a F 1 -score of 0.846 ± 0.012, surpassing process-driven fire danger indices and four commonly used ML models by up to 40% and 9%, respectively. More importantly, the ML model showed remarkably higher interpretability relative to other ML models. Specifically, by demystifying the “black box” of each ML model using the explainable AI techniques, we identified substantial structural differences across ML fire models, even among those with similar accuracy. The relationships between fires and their drivers, identified by our model, were aligned closer with established fire physical principles. The ML structural discrepancy led to diverse fire predictions and our model predictions exhibited greater consistency with actual fire occurrence. With the highly interpretable and accurate model, we revealed the strong compound effects from multiple climate variables related to evaporative demand, energy release component, temperature, and wind speed, on the dynamics of large fires and megafires in the western US. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing the structural integrity of models in addition to their accuracy. They also underscore the critical need to address the rise in compound climate extremes linked to large wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data-driven distillation and precision prognosis in traumatic brain injury with interpretable machine learning

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) affects how the brain functions in the short and long term. Resulting patient outcomes across physical, cognitive, and psychological domains are complex and often difficult to predict. Major challenges to developing personalized treatment for TBI include distilling large quantities of complex data and increasing the precision with which patient outcome prediction (prognoses) can be rendered. We developed and applied interpretable machine learning methods to TBI patient data. We show that complex data describing TBI patients' intake characteristics and outcome phenotypes can be distilled to smaller sets of clinically interpretable latent factors. We demonstrate that 19 clusters of TBI outcomes can be predicted from intake data, a ~ 6× improvement in precision over clinical standards. Finally, we show that 36% of the outcome variance across patients can be predicted. These results demonstrate the importance of interpretable machine learning applied to deeply characterized patients for data-driven distillation and precision prognosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

How machine learning can extend electroanalytical measurements beyond analytical interpretation

Electroanalytical measurements are routinely used to estimate material properties exhibiting current and voltage signatures. Analysis of such measurements relies on analytical expressions of material properties to describe the experiments. The need for analytical expressions limits the experiments that can be used to measure properties as well as the properties that can be estimated from a given experiment. Such analytical relations are essentially solutions of the physics-based differential equations (with properties as coefficients) describing the material behavior under certain specific conditions. In recent years, a new machine learning-based approach has been gaining popularity wherein the differential equations are numerically solved to interpret the electroanalytical experiments in terms of corresponding material properties. Since the physics-based differential equations are solved, one can additionally estimate underlying fields, e.g., concentration profile, using such an approach. To exemplify the characteristics of such a machine learning assisted interpretation of electroanalytical measurements, we use data from the Hebb–Wagner test on a magnesium spinel intercalation host. In conclusion, as compared to the traditional analytical expression-based interpretation, the emerging approach decreases experimental efforts to characterize relevant material properties as well as provides field information that was previously inaccessible.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity of the interpretation of the experimental ion thermal diffusivity to the determination of the ion conductive heat flux

A moments equation formalism for the interpretation of the experimental ion thermal diffusivity from experimental data is used to determine the radial ion thermal conduction flux that must be used to interpret the measured data. It is shown that the total ion energy flux must be corrected for thermal and rotational energy convection, for the work done by the flowing plasma against the pressure and viscosity, and for ion orbit loss of particles and energy, and expressions are presented for these corrections. Each of these factors is shown to have a significant effect on the interpreted ion thermal diffusivity in a representative DIII-D [J. Luxon, Nucl. Fusion 42, 614 (2002)] discharge.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Two-dimensional interpreter for field-reversed configurations

An interpretive method is developed for extracting details of the fully two-dimensional (2D) “internal” structure of field-reversed configurations (FRC) from common diagnostics. The challenge is that only external and “gross” diagnostics are routinely available in FRC experiments. Inferring such critical quantities as the poloidal flux and the particle inventory has commonly relied on a theoretical construct based on a quasi-one-dimensional approximation. Such inferences sometimes differ markedly from the more accurate, fully 2D reconstructions of equilibria. An interpreter based on a fully 2D reconstruction is needed to enable realistic within-the-shot tracking of evolving equilibrium properties. Presented here is a flexible equilibrium reconstruction with which an extensive data base of equilibria was constructed. An automated interpreter then uses this data base as a look-up table to extract evolving properties. This tool is applied to data from the FRC facility at Tri Alpha Energy. It yields surprising results at several points, such as the inferences that the local β (plasma pressure/external magnetic pressure) of the plasma climbs well above unity and the poloidal flux loss time is somewhat longer than previously thought, both of which arise from full two-dimensionality of FRCs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Multi-frequency analysis of dark matter annihilation interpretations of recent anti-particle and γ-ray excesses in cosmic structures

The Fermi-LAT observation of a γ-ray excess from the galactic-centre, as well as the PAMELA, AMS, and AMS-2 anti-particle excesses, and the recent indications of a Fermi-LAT γ-ray excess in the Reticulum II dwarf galaxy have all been variously put forward as possible indirect signatures of supersymmetric neutralino dark matter. These are of particular interest as the neutralino annihilation models which fit these observations must have observable consequences across the frequency spectrum, from radio to γ-ray emission. Moreover, since dark matter is expected to be a major constituent of cosmic structure, these multi-frequency consequences should be common to such structures across the mass spectrum, from dwarf galaxies to galaxy clusters. Thus, in this work we make predictions for the multi-frequency spectra of three well-known sources dominated by dark matter on cluster, galaxy and dwarf galaxy scales, e.g. the Coma cluster, the galaxy M81, and the Draco dwarf galaxy, using models favoured by dark matter interpretations of the aforementioned observations. We pay special attention to the consequences for these models when their cross-sections are renormalised to reproduce the recent γ-ray excess observed in the Reticulum II dwarf galaxy, as well as using cross-sections from the Fermi-LAT dwarf galaxy limits, which throw a dark matter interpretation of this excess into doubt. We find that the multi-frequency data of Coma and Draco are in conflict with the dark matter interpretation of the AMS, PAMELA and Fermi positron excess. Additionally, models derived from Fermi-LAT galactic centre observations, and AMS-2 re-analysis, present similar but less extensive conflicts. Using the sensitivity projections for the Square Kilometre Array, the Cherenkov Telescope Array, as well as the ASTROGAM and ASTRO-H satellites, we determine the detection prospects for a subset of neutralino models that remain consistent with Planck cosmological constraints. Although the SKA has the greatest sensitivity to dark matter models, we demonstrate that ASTRO-H is well positioned to probe the inverse-Compton scattering emissions from neutralino annihilation and identify characteristics of the spectra which contain information about the neutralino mass and annihilation channel. This means that, given environments with favourable X-ray backgrounds, multi-frequency observation with the next generation of experiments will allow for unprecedented sensitivity to the neutralino parameter space as well as offsetting the individual weaknesses of each observation mode. Finally we show that all of the studied models can be better tested with the SKA phase 1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Highly deformed bands in Nd nuclei: New results and consistent interpretation within the cranked Nilsson-Strutinsky formalism

Three new highly-deformed (HD) bands are identified in 136 Nd and the highly deformed band of 137 Nd is extended at higher spin by four transitions, revealing a band crossing associated with the occupation of the second $νi_{13/2}$ intruder orbital. Extended cranked Nilsson-Strutinsky calculations are performed for all HD bands observed in 134 Nd, 136 Nd, and 137 Nd, achieving for the first time a consistent interpretation of all HD bands in the Nd nuclei. The new interpretation has significant consequences, like the change of parity of the yrast HD bands of 134 Nd and 136 Nd, and the involvement of two negative-parity neutron intruder orbitals in the configurations of most HD bands. The present experimental results and their theoretical interpretation represent an important step forward in the understanding of the second-minimum excitations in the Nd nuclei.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

L-VISP: LSTM Visualization for Interpretable Symptom Prediction in Patient Cohorts

Symptom modelling in head and neck cancer is challenged by the complexity of heterogeneous patient data, leading to an interest in deep learning approaches. Although Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) have shown great results in patient risk prediction, their low interpretability requires data modellers to collaborate with clinical experts to validate the results. We present L-VISP, a human–machine solution that uses visual analytics for LSTM modelling in clinical research. L-VISP uses custom visual encodings to make multiple LSTM variants interpretable, supporting a full range of analysis, from understanding model operations and evaluating performance to interpreting results in a clinical context. We evaluate L-VISP with data modellers and a clinical oncologist and present the takeaways from this multidisciplinary collaboration.

LSTM modeling↗

The weakly nonlinear response and nonaffine interpretation of the Johnson–Segalman/Gordon–Schowalter model

We derive new analytical solutions for the non-affine Johnson-Segalman/Gordon-Schowalter (JS/GS) constitutive equation with a general relaxation kernel in medium-amplitude oscillatory shear (MAOS) deformation. The results show time-strain separable (TSS) nonlinearity, therefore providing new physically-meaningful interpretation to the heuristic TSS nonlinear parameter in MAOS. The upper-convected, lower-convected, and corotational Maxwell models are all subsets of the results presented here. The model assumes that the microscale elements causing stress in the material slip compared to the continuum deformation. We introduce a visualization of the non-affine deformation field that acts on stress-generating elements to reinforce the hysical interpretation of the JS/GS class of models. Lastly, a case study is presented where previously published results, from fitting TSS models to MAOS data, can be re-interpreted based on the concept of non-affine motion of the JS/GS framework.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Interpreting and reporting 40 Ar/ 39 Ar geochronologic data

The 40Ar/39Ar dating method is among the most versatile of geochronometers, having the potential to date a broad variety of K-bearing materials spanning from the time of Earth’s formation into the historical realm. Measurements using modern noble-gas mass spectrometers are now producing 40Ar/39Ar dates with analytical uncertainties of ~1%, thereby providing precise time constraints for a wide range of geologic and extraterrestrial processes. Analyses of increasingly smaller subsamples have revealed age dispersion in many materials, including some minerals used as neutron fluence monitors. Accordingly, interpretive strategies are evolving to address observed dispersion in dates from a single sample. Moreover, inferring a geologically meaningful “age” from a measured “date” or set of dates is dependent on the geological problem being addressed and the salient assumptions associated with each set of data. We highlight requirements for collateral information that will better constrain the interpretation of 40Ar/39Ar data sets, including those associated with single-crystal fusion analyses, incremental heating experiments, and in situ analyses of microsampled domains. To ensure the utility and viability of published results, we emphasize previous recommendations for reporting 40Ar/39Ar data and the related essential metadata, with the amendment that data conform to evolving standards of being findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) by both humans and computers. Our examples provide guidance for the presentation and interpretation of 40 Ar/ 39 Ar dates to maximize their interdisciplinary usage, reproducibility, and longevity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advancing subsurface analysis: Integrating computer vision and deep learning for the near real-time interpretation of borehole image logs in the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project

The accurate quantification and mapping of subsurface natural fracture systems using borehole imaging logs are critical for the success of CO 2 sequestration in geologic formations, optimization of engineered geothermal systems, and hydrocarbon production enhancement. However, traditional interpretation processes suffer from time-consuming procedures and human bias. To address these challenges and expedite fracture analysis, we investigated the application of integrated computer vision and DL workflows to automate image log analysis. Specifically, the design of our workflow was crafted to swiftly detect fractures and baffles by using actual electrical resistivity of borehole wall from microresistivity imaging device alongside their binary representation. This novel approach significantly reduces computational time while providing invaluable insights. By incorporating conventional logging and microseismic data, we present a regional subsurface natural fracture mapping technique. Through the minimization of human bias in image log analysis, our automated workflow achieves reduced fracture interpretation time and costs while ensuring robust and reproducible results. We demonstrated the efficacy of our approach by applying the workflow to the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project site. The automated workflow successfully identified major fractured zones, multiple baffles, and an interbedded layer with a high resolution of 0.01 ft or 0.12 in. (0.3 cm) and can be upscaled to any desired resolution. Validation through microseismic and image log interpretations allows for accurate and near-real-time mapping of fractures and baffles, significantly enhancing CO 2 pressure forecasting and postinjection site care. Our approach stands out due to its robustness, consistency, and reduced computational cost compared with alternative feature extraction technologies. It presents exciting possibilities for advancing CO 2 sequestration and engineered geothermal efforts by offering comprehensive and efficient fracture mapping solutions. This technology can contribute significantly to the optimization of CO 2 sequestration projects, facilitating sustainable environmental practices, and combating climate change.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

HEP Software Foundation Community White Paper Working Group - Data Analysis and Interpretation

At the heart of experimental high energy physics (HEP) is the development of facilities and instrumentation that provide sensitivity to new phenomena. Our understanding of nature at its most fundamental level is advanced through the analysis and interpretation of data from sophisticated detectors in HEP experiments. The goal of data analysis systems is to realize the maximum possible scientific potential of the data within the constraints of computing and human resources in the least time. To achieve this goal, future analysis systems should empower physicists to access the data with a high level of interactivity, reproducibility and throughput capability. As part of the HEP Software Foundation Community White Paper process, a working group on Data Analysis and Interpretation was formed to assess the challenges and opportunities in HEP data analysis and develop a roadmap for activities in this area over the next decade. In this report, the key findings and recommendations of the Data Analysis and Interpretation Working Group are presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Introduction to Special Section: Machine Learning for Image-based Geologic Interpretation

Image-based geological interpretation has been a labor-intensive and time-consuming process because it requires well-trained geoscientists to identify geological structures, features, and textures from various types of images. These images include scanning electron microscopic images, optical microscopic images, optical photos, resistivity images, seismic volumes, remote-sensing images, etc. With fast-evolving machine learning (ML) technology and computing power in recent decades, computers can achieve nearhuman-level to super-human-level performance with scalable high efficiency in the computer vision field. These technological revolutions facilitated image-based geological interpretation in petroleum exploration and production. For example, a fault picking method applied to 3-D seismic volume data using deep learning can achieve superior performance in comparison to conventional auto-picking methods. In addition, under the new normal of low oil prices, the petroleum industry seeks cost-effective strategies such as automating traditionally labor-intensive processes. Nevertheless, the potential of applying ML to geological image interpretation is still facing a few key challenges including data scarcity, data distribution, poor data and/or label quality, data leakage, learning algorithms, model architecture, training methodologies, testing and evaluation metrics, hyper-parameters optimization, model drift, production deployment, and the like.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗