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Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

Saile, Lynn↗

Sleep Disruption Medical Intervention Forecasting (SDMIF) Module for the Integrated Medical Model

The NASA Integrated Medical Model (IMM) assesses the risk, including likelihood and impact of occurrence, of all credible in-flight medical conditions. Fatigue due to sleep disruption is a condition that could lead to operational errors, potentially resulting in loss of mission or crew. Pharmacological consumables are mitigation strategies used to manage the risks associated with sleep deficits. The likelihood of medical intervention due to sleep disruption was estimated with a well validated sleep model and a Monte Carlo computer simulation in an effort to optimize the quantity of consumables. METHODS: The key components of the model are the mission parameter program, the calculation of sleep intensity and the diagnosis and decision module. The mission parameter program was used to create simulated daily sleep/wake schedules for an ISS increment. The hypothetical schedules included critical events such as dockings and extravehicular activities and included actual sleep time and sleep quality. The schedules were used as inputs to the Sleep, Activity, Fatigue and Task Effectiveness (SAFTE) Model (IBR Inc., Baltimore MD), which calculated sleep intensity. Sleep data from an ISS study was used to relate calculated sleep intensity to the probability of sleep medication use, using a generalized linear model for binomial regression. A human yes/no decision process using a binomial random number was also factored into sleep medication use probability. RESULTS: These probability calculations were repeated 5000 times resulting in an estimate of the most likely amount of sleep aids used during an ISS mission and a 95% confidence interval. CONCLUSIONS: These results were transferred to the parent IMM for further weighting and integration with other medical conditions, to help inform operational decisions. This model is a potential planning tool for ensuring adequate sleep during sleep disrupted periods of a mission.

Lewandowski, Beth↗

Enterprise Reference Library

Introduction: Johnson Space Center (JSC) offers two extensive libraries that contain journals, research literature and electronic resources. Searching capabilities are available to those individuals residing onsite or through a librarian s search. Many individuals have rich collections of references, but no mechanisms to share reference libraries across researchers, projects, or directorates exist. Likewise, information regarding which references are provided to which individuals is not available, resulting in duplicate requests, redundant labor costs and associated copying fees. In addition, this tends to limit collaboration between colleagues and promotes the establishment of individual, unshared silos of information The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) team has utilized a centralized reference management tool during the development, test, and operational phases of this project. The Enterprise Reference Library project expands the capabilities developed for IMM to address the above issues and enhance collaboration across JSC. Method: After significant market analysis for a multi-user reference management tool, no available commercial tool was found to meet this need, so a software program was built around a commercial tool, Reference Manager 12 by The Thomson Corporation. A use case approach guided the requirements development phase. The premise of the design is that individuals use their own reference management software and export to SharePoint when their library is incorporated into the Enterprise Reference Library. This results in a searchable user-specific library application. An accompanying share folder will warehouse the electronic full-text articles, which allows the global user community to access full -text articles. Discussion: An enterprise reference library solution can provide a multidisciplinary collection of full text articles. This approach improves efficiency in obtaining and storing reference material while greatly reducing labor, purchasing and duplication costs. Most importantly, increasing collaboration across research groups provides unprecedented access to information relevant to NASA s mission. Conclusion: This project is an expansion and cost-effective leveraging of the existing JSC centralized library. Adding key word and author search capabilities and an alert function for notifications about new articles, based on users profiles, represent examples of future enhancements.

Bickham, Grandin↗

Optimizing Medical Kits for Spaceflight

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic model that estimates medical event occurrences and mission outcomes for different mission profiles. IMM simulation outcomes describing the impact of medical events on the mission may be used to optimize the allocation of resources in medical kits. Efficient allocation of medical resources, subject to certain mass and volume constraints, is crucial to ensuring the best outcomes of in-flight medical events. We implement a new approach to this medical kit optimization problem. METHODS We frame medical kit optimization as a modified knapsack problem and implement an algorithm utilizing a dynamic programming technique. Using this algorithm, optimized medical kits were generated for 3 different mission scenarios with the goal of minimizing the probability of evacuation and maximizing the Crew Health Index (CHI) for each mission subject to mass and volume constraints. Simulation outcomes using these kits were also compared to outcomes using kits optimized..RESULTS The optimized medical kits generated by the algorithm described here resulted in predicted mission outcomes more closely approached the unlimited-resource scenario for Crew Health Index (CHI) than the implementation in under all optimization priorities. Furthermore, the approach described here improves upon in reducing evacuation when the optimization priority is minimizing the probability of evacuation. CONCLUSIONS This algorithm provides an efficient, effective means to objectively allocate medical resources for spaceflight missions using the Integrated Medical Model.

Optimization↗

HRP's Healthcare Spin-Offs Through Computational Modeling and Simulation Practice Methodologies

Spaceflight missions expose astronauts to novel operational and environmental conditions that pose health risks that are currently not well understood, and perhaps unanticipated. Furthermore, given the limited number of humans that have flown in long duration missions and beyond low Earth-orbit, the amount of research and clinical data necessary to predict and mitigate these health and performance risks are limited. Consequently, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) conducts research and develops advanced methods and tools to predict, assess, and mitigate potential hazards to the health of astronauts. In this light, NASA has explored the possibility of leveraging computational modeling since the 1970s as a means to elucidate the physiologic risks of spaceflight and develop countermeasures. Since that time, substantial progress has been realized in this arena through a number of HRP funded activates such as the Digital Astronaut Project (DAP) and the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Much of this success can be attributed to HRP's endeavor to establish rigorous verification, validation, and credibility (VV&C) processes that ensure computational models and simulations (M&S) are sufficiently credible to address issues within their intended scope. This presentation summarizes HRP's activities in credibility of modeling and simulation, in particular through its outreach to the community of modeling and simulation practitioners. METHODS: The HRP requires all M&S that can have moderate to high impact on crew health or mission success must be vetted in accordance to NASA Standard for Models and Simulations, NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [5]. As this standard mostly focuses on engineering systems, the IMM and DAP have invested substantial efforts to adapt the processes established in this standard for their application to biological M&S, which is more prevalent in human health and performance (HHP) and space biomedical research and operations [6,7]. These methods have also generated substantial interest by the broader medical community though institutions like the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to develop similar standards and guidelines applicable to the larger medical operations and research community. DISCUSSION: Similar to NASA, many leading government agencies, health institutions and medical product developers around the world are recognizing the potential of computational M&S to support clinical research and decision making. In this light, substantial investments are being made in computational medicine and notable discoveries are being realized [8]. However, there is a lack of broadly applicable practice guidance for the development and implementation of M&S in clinical care and research in a manner that instills confidence among medical practitioners and biological researchers [9,10]. In this presentation, we will give an overview on how HRP is working with the NIH's Interagency Modeling and Analysis Group (IMAG), the FDA and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) to leverage NASA's biomedical VV&C processes to establish a new regulatory standard for Verification and Validation in Computational Modeling of Medical Devices, and Guidelines for Credible Practice of Computational Modeling and Simulation in Healthcare.

Mulugeta, Lealem↗

Risks from Solar Particle Events for Long Duration Space Missions Outside Low Earth Orbit

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) simulates the medical occurrences and mission outcomes for various mission profiles using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. As part of the work with the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), this project focuses on radiation risks from acute events during extended human missions outside low Earth orbit (LEO). Of primary importance in acute risk assessment are solar particle events (SPEs), which are low probability, high consequence events that could adversely affect mission outcomes through acute radiation damage to astronauts. SPEs can be further classified into coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares/impulsive events (Fig. 1). CMEs are an eruption of solar material and have shock enhancements that contribute to make these types of events higher in total fluence than impulsive events.

health↗

Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources

INTRODUCTION: Long-duration missions beyond low Earth orbit introduce new constraints to the space medical system. Beyond the traditional limitations in mass, power, and volume, consideration must be given to other factors such as the inability to evacuate to Earth, communication delays, and limitations in clinical skillsets. As NASA develops the medical system for an exploration mission, it must have an ability to evaluate the trade space of what resources will be most important. The Medical Optimization Network for Space Telemedicine Resources (MONSTR) was developed over the past year for this reason, and is now a system for managing data pertaining to medical resources and their relative importance when addressing medical conditions. METHODS: The MONSTR web application with a Microsoft SQL database backend was developed and made accessible to Tableau v9.3 for analysis and visualization. The database was initially populated with a list of medical conditions of concern for an exploration mission taken from the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), a probabilistic model designed to quantify in-flight medical risk. A team of physicians working within the Exploration Medical Capability Element of NASA's Human Research Program compiled a list diagnostic and treatment medical resources required to address best- and worst-case scenarios of each medical condition using a terrestrial standard of care and entered this data into the system. This list included both tangible resources (e.g. medical equipment, medications) and intangible resources (e.g. clinical skills required to perform a procedure). The physician team then assigned criticality values to each instance of a resource, representing the importance of that resource to diagnosing or treating its associated condition(s). Medical condition probabilities of occurrence during a Mars mission were pulled from the IMM and imported into the MONSTR database for use within a resource criticality-weighting algorithm. DISCUSSION: The MONSTR tool is a novel approach to assess the relative value of individual resources needed for the diagnosis and treatment of medical conditions. Future work will add resources for prevention and long term care of these conditions. Once data collection is complete, MONSTR will provide the operational and research communities at NASA with information to support informed decisions regarding areas of research investment, future crew training, and medical supplies manifested as part of any exploration medical system.

Rubin, D.↗

Implementation of a Parameterized Interacting Multiple Model Filter on an FPGA for Satellite Communications

In a communications channel, the space environment between a spacecraft and an Earth ground station can potentially cause the loss of a data link or at least degrade its performance due to atmospheric effects, shadowing, multipath, or other impairments. In adaptive and coded modulation, the signal power level at the receiver can be used in order to choose a modulation-coding technique that maximizes throughput while meeting bit error rate (BER) and other performance requirements. It is the goal of this research to implement a generalized interacting multiple model (IMM) filter based on Kalman filters for improved received power estimation on software-dened radio (SDR) technology for satellite communications applications. The IMM filter has been implemented in Verilog consisting of a customizable bank of Kalman filters for choosing between performance and resource utilization. Each Kalman filter can be implemented using either solely a Schur complement module (for high area efficiency) or with Schur complement, matrix multiplication, and matrix addition modules (for high performance). These modules were simulated and synthesized for the Virtex II platform on the JPL Radio Experimenter Development System (EDS) at NASA Glenn Research Center. The results for simulation, synthesis, and hardware testing are presented.

cognitive radio↗

Transformational Solar Array Final Report

We have made outstanding progress in the Base Phase towards achieving the final NASA Research Announcement (NRA) goals. Progress is better than anticipated due to the lighter than predicted mass of the IMM solar cells. We look forward to further improvements in the IMM cell performance during Option I and Option II; so, we have confidence that the first four items listed in the table will improve to better than the NRA goals. The computation of the end of life blanket efficiency is uncertain because we have extrapolated the radiation damage from room temperature measurements. The last three items listed in the Table were not intended to be accomplished during the Base Phase; they will be achieved during Option I and Option II.

Gaddy, Edward↗

HDAC6 regulates thermogenesis of brown adipocytes through activating PKA to induce UCP1 expression

Highlights: • HDAC6 regulates thermogenesis of brown adipose tissue. • cAMP-PKA signaling is responsible for HDAC6-dependent thermogenic regulation to control UCP1 expression. • HDAC6-dependent regulation of UCP1 affects lipid metabolism in brown adipose tissue. Mitochondrial uncoupling protein 1 (UCP1) is responsible for nonshivering thermogenesis in brown adipose tissue (BAT). UCP1 increases the conductance of the inner mitochondrial membrane (IMM) for protons to make BAT mitochondria generate heat rather than ATP. HDAC6 is a cytosolic deacetylase for non-histone substrates to regulate various cellular processes, including mitochondrial quality control and dynamics. Here, we showed that the body temperature of HDAC6 knockout mice is slightly decreased in normal hosing condition. Interestingly, UCP1 was downregulated in BAT of HDAC6 knockout mice, which extensively linked mitochondrial thermogenesis. Mechanistically, we showed that cAMP-PKA signaling plays a key role in HDAC6-dependent UCP1 expression. Notably, the size of brown adipocytes and lipid droplets in HDAC6 knockout BAT is increased. Taken together, our findings suggested that HDAC6 contributes to mitochondrial thermogenesis in BAT by increasing UCP1 expression through cAMP-PKA signaling pathway.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Survey of Evaluated Isobaric Analog States

Isobaric analog states (IAS) can be used to estimate the masses of members belonging to the same isospin multiplet. Experimental and estimated IAS have been used frequently within the Atomic Mass Evaluation (AME) in the past, but the associated set of evaluated masses have been published for the first time in AME2012 and NUBASE2012. In this paper the current trends of the isobaric multiplet mass equation (IMME) coefficients are shown. The T = 2 multiplet is used as a detailed illustration.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Calorimetric Study of Alkali Metal Ion (K + , Na + , Li + ) Exchange in a Clay-Like MXene

Intercalation of ions in layered materials has been explored to improve the rate capability in Li-ion batteries and supercapacitors. This work investigates the energetics of alkali ion exchange in a clay-like MXene, Ti 3 C 2 T x , where T x stands for anionic surface moieties, by immersion calorimetry in aqueous solutions. The measured immersion enthalpies of clay-like Ti 3 C 2 T x , ΔH imm , at 25 °C in 1 M KCl, 1 M NaCl, 1 M LiCl, and nanopure water are -9.19 (±0.56), -5.90 (±0.31), -1.31 (±0.20), and -1.29 (±0.13) kJ/mol of MXene, respectively. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry is used to obtain the concentrations of alkali ions in the solid and aqueous phases. Using these concentrations, the enthalpies of exchange of alkali metal ions (Li+, Na+, and K+) are calculated; ΔHex in 1 M KCl, 1 M NaCl, 1 M LiCl, and nanopure water are -9.3 (±2.2), 21.0 (±0.9), -1.3 (±0.2), and 302.4 (±0.6) kJ/mol of MXene, respectively. Both immersion and exchange enthalpies are most exothermic for potassium. This suggests that K+ ions interact more strongly with anions present in the interlayers of this MXene than Na + and Li + ions. Water vapor adsorption calorimetry indicates very weak interaction of water with the MXene, while immersion calorimetry suggests a weakly hydrophilic nature of the MXene surface.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Experimental identification of the T = 1 , J π = 6 + state of Co 54 and isospin symmetry in A = 54 studied via one-nucleon knockout reactions

In this paper, new experimental data obtained from γ-ray tagged one-neutron and one-proton knockout from 55 Co are presented. A candidate for the sought-after T = 1, T z = 0, J π = 6 + state in 54 Co is proposed based on a comparison to the new data on 54 Fe, the corresponding observables predicted by large-scale-shell-model (LSSM) calculations in the full fp-model space employing charge-dependent contributions, and isospin-symmetry arguments. Furthermore, possible isospin-symmetry breaking in the A = 54, T = 1 triplet is studied by calculating the experimental c coefficients of the isobaric mass multiplet equation (IMME) up to the maximum possible spin J = 6 expected for the (1f 7/2 ) -2 two-hole configuration relative to the doubly magic nucleus 56 Ni. Lastly, the experimental quantities are compared to the theoretically predicted c coefficients from LSSM calculations using two-body matrix elements obtained from a realistic chiral effective field theory potential at next-to-next-to-next-to-leading order (N 3 LO).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Low-lying level structure of $^{56}\mathbf{Cu}$ and its implications for the $\mathit{rp}$ process

The low-lying energy levels of proton-rich Cu 56 have been extracted using in-beam γ -ray spectroscopy with the state-of-the-art γ -ray tracking array GRETINA in conjunction with the S800 spectrograph at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory at Michigan State University. Excited states in Cu 56 serve as resonances in the Ni 55 ( p , γ ) Cu 56 reaction, which is a part of the rp process in type-I x-ray bursts. To resolve existing ambiguities in the reaction Q value, a more localized isobaric multiplet mass equation (IMME) fit is used, resulting in Q = 639 ± 82 keV. We derive the first experimentally constrained thermonuclear reaction rate for Ni 55 ( p , γ ) Cu 56 . We discover that, with this new rate, the rp process may bypass the Ni 56 waiting point via the Ni 55 ( p , γ ) reaction for typical x-ray burst conditions with a branching of up to ~ 40 % . We further identify additional nuclear physics uncertainties that need to be addressed before drawing final conclusions about the rp -process reaction flow in the Ni 56 region.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Strategies for Thinning Graded Buffer Regions in Metamorphic Solar Cells and Performance Tradeoffs

Compositionally graded buffers (CGBs) have enabled the development of inverted metamorphic (IMM) multijunction solar cells that contain three or more junctions and exhibit record efficiencies. Typically, the CGB is grown thick with a constant grading rate, because this is the most straightforward way to minimize the threading dislocation density (TDD) in device active regions. The CGB growth represents a significant expense, in terms of materials consumption and capital cost, however, hampering the economic viability of metamorphic devices. This work explores strategies for thinning Ga1-xInxP CGBs from GaAs to InP while minimizing performance loss, as evaluated by the open-circuit voltage (VOC) of ~0.74 eV Ga0.47In0.53As solar cells. Using the Ga1-xInxP CGB as a model, we demonstrate that slower grading is necessary in certain regions of the grade where dislocation nucleation rates are higher. Grading must be more gradual in these regions to suppress threading dislocation density. Grading rates can be increased in non-critical areas where dislocation nucleation is lower, permitting a thinner buffer. We demonstrate the relationship between VOC and TDD, establishing tradeoffs between thickness and performance. Through careful design, we demonstrate a CGB with a 40% thickness reduction (2 im) achieved with a VOC decrease of only 6.3% (21 mV).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Dark energy survey operations: years 4 and 5

The Dark Energy Survey is a “stage III” dark energy experiment, performing an optical imaging survey to measure cos-mological equation of state parameters using four independent methods. The scope and complexity of the survey, originallyscheduled for 525 nights of observing spread over five years and combining a 5000 degree wide survey with a 10 field weeklytime-domain survey, introduced complex strategic and tactical scheduling problems that needed to be addressed. We beginwith an overview of the process used to develop DES strategy and tactics, from the inception of the project, to task forces thatstudied and developed strategy changes over the course of the survey, to the nightly pre-observing meeting in which imme-diate tactical issues were addressed. We then summarize the strategic choices made for each sub-survey, including metrics,scheduling considerations, choice of time domain fields and their sequences of exposures, and wide survey footprint andpointing layout choices. We go on to describe the detailed process that determined which specific exposures were taken atwhich specific times. We give a chronology of the strategic and tactical peculiarities of each year of observing, including theproposal and execution of a sixth year. We give an overview ofobstac, the implementation of the DES scheduler used to sim-ulate and evaluate strategic and tactical options, and automate exposure scheduling; and describe developments inobstacfor use after DES. Appendices describe further details of data quality evaluation,τ, andteff; airmass calculation; and model-ing of the seeing and sky brightness. The significant corpus of DES data indicates that the simple scaling relations for seeingas a function of wavelength and airmass derived from the Kolmogorov turbulence model work adequately for exposureplanning purposes: deviations from these relations are modest in comparison with short time-scale seeing variations

Gruendl, Robert A.↗

HBMax: Optimizing Memory Efficiency for Parallel Influence Maximization on Multicore Architectures

The goal of influence maximization is to select k most-influential vertices or seeds in a network, where influence is defined by a given diffusion process. The problem has a number of important applications such as viral marketing, information spread, and epidemic control. Although computing optimal seed set is NP-Hard, due to the submodular nature of the problem efficient approximation algorithms exist. However, even state-of-the-art parallel implementations are limited by a sampling step that incurs large memory footprints. This in turn limits the problem size reach and approximation quality. In this work, we study the memory footprint of the sampling process collecting reverse reachability information in the IMM algorithm over large real-world social networks. We present an adaptive and memory-efficient optimization approach for a state-of-the-art multi-threaded parallel influence maximization algorithm. Our approach,HuffMax, uses a portion of the reverse reachable (RR) sets collected by the algorithm to learn the characteristics of the graph. Then, it compresses the intermediate reverse reachability information with Huffman coding, and queries directly on the compressed data to preserve the memory savings obtained through compression. We also propose an efficient sampling strategy based on the distribution of RR sets, which can further reduce the computation time for typical social networks with long-tail distributions. Considering a NUMA architecture, we scale up our solution on 128-core CPUs and reduce the memory footprint by up to 45.7% with negligible time overhead (or even faster) and without perceivable loss of accuracy.

Chen, Xinyu↗

High-Level Synthesis of Irregular Applications: A Case Study on Influence Maximization

The Influence Maximization problem is the problem of identifying a small cohort of actors from a broader population that, when initially activated in a diffusion process, are expected to result in a large number of activations in the population. While the problem is known to be NP-hard, several approximation algorithms have been devised by leveraging its submodular structure. While these algorithms are theoretically efficient, they are computationally very expensive in practice. This work advances the current state-of-the-art parallelization scheme for the IMM algorithm by devising the adoption of custom hardware accelerators implemented on FPGAs by leveraging High Level Synthesis from OpenCL. We study the performance of our proposed approach by exploring optimizations tailored at improving the parallel efficiency of the accelerators and highlight their effects and limitations in accelerating complex graph analytic applications. Our experimental evaluation shows that FPGA acceleration can improve the performance of the LT diffusion model up to 1.72x for the entire application and up to 2.90x for its most important kernel with respect to a CPU only parallel execution. The FPGA acceleration of the LT model shows also a 1.54x reduction in energy consumption when compared to a parallel CPU only run.

Neff, Reece W.↗