SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Hydrodynamical simulations”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating baryonic effects with a theoretical error covariance

ABSTRACT One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modelling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the non-linear regime at the per cent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an augmented covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a ΛCDM model using the extended halo model code HMCode to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on Ωm and σ8 of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impact of in situ nuclear networks and atomic opacities on neutron star merger ejecta dynamics, nucleosynthesis, and kilonovae

Context. Binary neutron star merger (BNSM) ejecta are key sites of rapid neutron capture (r-process) nucleosynthesis and they produce kilonovae powered by the radioactive decay of freshly synthesized nuclei. Modeling their evolution requires multi-physics simulations involving hydrodynamics, nuclear reactions, and radiative processes. The impact of nuclear burning and atomic opacity is poorly understood and often treated with simplified prescriptions. Aims. We systematically investigate different treatments of nuclear heating, particle thermalization, and atomic opacities in radiation-hydrodynamics simulations of BNSM ejecta and kilonova light curves. Methods. Ejecta profiles from long-term numerical-relativity simulations of asymmetric neutron star binaries with a massive neutron star remnant were evolved to ∼30 days using a 2D ray-by-ray approach. We compared simplified heating-rate and thermalization prescriptions with in situ Nuclear reaction Network (NN) calculations that track nuclear energy deposition and include a composition-dependent thermalization scheme. We also contrasted various gray opacity models with a frequency-dependent treatment based on atomic calculations. Results. Coupling NN and hydrodynamics significantly affects nucleosynthesis and kilonova emission. Assuming homologous expansion alters abundance evolution and produces a narrower, less populated second r-process peak and a third peak shifted to higher mass numbers. The back-reaction of nuclear heating affects the temperature evolution enough to delay and redden the early (t∼ hours) kilonova peaks. A constant thermalization efficiency underestimates and reddens the early emission while overestimating the late-time luminosity compared to the composition-dependent treatment. Analytical opacity prescriptions yield a more extended, colder photosphere, resulting in dimmer, redder kilonovae at early times (t≲ hour), while the delayed recession of the photosphere prolongs the red emission at t ≳ 5 days. Conclusions. Coupling hydrodynamics to an in situ NN is crucial for reliable nucleosynthesis and kilonova predictions. Resolving the first several hundred milliseconds of the hydrodynamics is essential for robust nucleosynthesis calculations. Composition-dependent thermalization and frequency-dependent, atomic-physics-based opacities are needed to accurately capture the temperature evolution of the ejecta and the brightness and color evolution of the kilonova. Calibrated analytic nuclear-power fits with simplified thermalization and opacity prescriptions can still reproduce the density and temperature evolution of the ejecta.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantum simulations of hydrodynamics via the Madelung transformation

Developing numerical methods to simulate efficiently nonlinear fluid dynamics on universal quantum computers is a challenging problem. In this paper, a generalization of the Madelung transform is defined to solve quantum relativistic charged fluid equations interacting with external electromagnetic forces via the Dirac equation. The Dirac equation is discretized into discrete-time quantum walks which can be efficiently implemented on universal quantum computers. A variant of this algorithm is proposed to implement simulations using current noisy intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) devices in the case of homogeneous external forces. High resolution (up to N=2 17 grid points) numerical simulations of relativistic and nonrelativistic hydrodynamical shocks on current IBM NISQs are performed with this algorithm. Here, this paper demonstrates that fluid dynamics can be simulated on NISQs, and opens the door to simulating other fluids, including plasmas, with more general quantum walks and quantum automata.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS1984

Numerical simulations of fission

Hydrodynamic simulation techniques to the fission problem of the lunar origin were applied. It is indicated that, for fluids with the compressibility of stars, dynamic fission instabilities lead to spiral arm ejection of mass and angular momentum in the form of a ring or disk of debris, not as a single body. Some quantitative aspects of these results seem favorable to lunar origin by fission. Fission instabilities in fluid objects with a smaller degree of compressibility, more closely approximating terrestrial material are considered. Although the qualitative features are similar, there are significant quantitative differences for the stiffer equation of state. The implications of the results for the fission hypothesis of lunar origin are discussed. Evolutions illustrating possible approaches to instability are presented.

Durisen, R. H.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Molecular dynamics simulation of hydrodynamic transport coefficients in plasmas

Molecular dynamics simulations are used to calculate transport coefficients in a two-component plasma interacting through a repulsive Coulomb potential. The thermal conductivity, electrical conductivity, electrothermal coefficient, thermoelectric coefficient, and shear viscosity are computed using the Green–Kubo formalism over a broad range of Coulomb coupling strength, 0.01 ≤ Γ ≤ 140. Emphasis is placed on testing standard results of the Chapman–Enskog solution in the weakly coupled regime (Γ ≪ 1) using these first-principles simulations. As expected, the results show good agreement for Γ ≲ 0.1. However, this agreement is only possible if careful attention is paid to the definitions of linear constitutive relations in each of the theoretical models, a point that is often overlooked. For example, the standard Green–Kubo expression for thermal conductivity is a linear combination of thermal conductivity, electrothermal, and thermoelectric coefficients computed in the Chapman–Enskog formalism. Meaningful results for electrical conductivity are obtained over the full range of coupling strengths explored, but it is shown that potential and virial components of the other transport coefficients diverge in the strongly coupled regime (Γ ≫ 1). In this regime, only the kinetic components of the transport coefficients are meaningful for a classical plasma.

Electrical conductivity↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Diffusion (Mixing) of Material in Numerical Simulations of Hydrodynamics [Slides]

It is often assumed that a material interface between two materials is spread over a few numerical cells in numerical simulations for hydrodynamics. Also, we have the impression that higher order methods introduce less numerical diffusion (mixing) of material. As we know one of the purposes of adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is to resolve interfaces between materials, but we would like to know how effective AMR is to reduce numerical diffusion of material. We will present our investigation about numerical diffusion (mixing) of material in xRage. The result of the investigation indicates that the assumptions mentioned above are not always valid. In this talk, we will also demonstrate the effectiveness of numerical techniques to reduce numerical diffusion of material, including contact discontinuity steepening, isotropic interface steepening, max interface steepening, material interface reconstruct.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analysis into Asymptotic Convergence to Full Nonlinear Solutions and Exploration of the Implication of Numerical Operator Mutation of Differential Systems

A robust, sufficiently accurate and practical hydrodynamic simulation toolset is required as a key component of the modeling and simulation of air-gap electrostatic discharge events. This work was performed to complement these ongoing efforts. In particular, hydrodynamic simulations must be vetted to ensure they are robust and sufficiently accurate over relevant characteristic scales. Verification models were generated in order to cultivate the technical knowledge and expertise needed to properly create, implement and execute numerical simulations. Furthermore, this effort was utilized extensively to educate students on the mathematical and numerical principles underlying hydrodynamic simulations. This education opportunity, provided in a holistic and rigorous manner, has greatly benefited developing scientists and engineers with the necessary understandings and toolsets required to excel at accomplishing the task at hand, and, more generally, it has enabled them to generate key programmatic deliverables. This report articulates several subtilties; specifically, how perturbations, nonlinear behavior, and dissipative mechanisms influence numerical stability, how to properly structure mathematical and numerical solutions, and how to properly generate error estimation/assignment. A more rigorous discussion of the consequences of such topics can be found in the body of this report in Chapters 2 and 3 with qualitative findings discussed in Chapter 4.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hyperparameter Studies for Vision Transformers Trained on High-Fidelity Simulations

This library is a collection of python modules that define, train, and analyze vision-transformer (ViT) machine learning models. The code implements, with mild modifications, ViT models that have been made publicly available through publication and GitHub code. The training data for these models is hydrodynamic simulation output in the form of numpy arrays. This library contains code to train these ViT models on the hydrodynamic simulation output with a variety of hyperparameters, and to compare the results of such models. Furthermore, the library contains definitions of simple convolutional neural network (CNN) machine learning architectures which can be trained on the same hydrodynamic simulation output. These are included as a reference point to compare the ViT models to. Additionally, the library includes trained ViT and CNN models and example input data for demonstration purposes. The code is based on the PyTorch python library.

Callis, Skylar↗

DOE OSTI2024

Do not forget the electrons: Extending moderately-sized nuclear networks for multidimensional hydrodynamic codes

Context.Nuclear networks are widely used coupled with hydrodynamical simulations of explosive scenarios to account for the change of nuclear species and energy generation rate due to nuclear reactions. In this way, there is a feedback mechanism between the hydrodynamical state and the nuclear processes. Unfortunately, the timescale of nuclear reactions is orders of magnitude smaller than the dynamical timescale that drives hydrodynamical simulations. Therefore, these nuclear networks are usually very small, reduced in most cases to a dozen elements, especially when simulations are carried out in more than one dimension. Aims.We present here an extended nuclear network, with 90 species, designed for being coupled with hydrodynamic simulations, which includes neutrons, protons, electrons, positrons, and the corresponding neutrino and anti-neutrino emission. This network is also coupled with temperature, making it extremely robust and, together with its size, unique of its kind. The inclusion of electron captures on free protons makes the network very appropriate for multidimensional studies of Type Ia supernova explosions, especially when the exploding object is a massive white dwarf. Methods.We perform several tests that are relevant to simulate explosive scenarios, such as Type Ia supernovae and core-collapse supernovae. We compare the results of the 90 nuclei network with a standardα-chain network with 14 elements to evaluate the differences in the energy generation rate. We also evaluate the relevance of including the electrons in the network in terms of generated yields and how it affects the pressure of a degenerate fluid such as that of white dwarfs. The results obtained with the 90-nuclei network have been verified with a much larger 2000-nuclei network built from REACLIB (WinNet), in terms of nuclear energy generation rate, pressure, and produced yields. Results.The results obtained with the proposed medium-sized network compare fairly well, to a few percent, with those computed withWinNetin scenarios reproducing the gross physical conditions of current Type Ia supernova explosion models. In those cases where the carbon and oxygen fuel ignites at high density, the high-temperature plateau typical of the nuclear statistical equilibrium regime is well defined and stable, allowing large integration time steps. We show that the inclusion of electron captures on free protons substantially improves the estimation of the electron fraction of the mixture. Therefore, the pressure is better determined than in networks where electron captures are excluded, which will ultimately lead to more reliable hydrodynamic models. Explosive combustion of helium at low density, occurring near the surface layer of a white dwarf, is also better described with the proposed network, which gives nuclear energy generation rates much closer toWinNetthan typical reduced alpha networks. Conclusions.A nuclear network withN= 90 species, including electrons, aimed at multidimensional calculations of supernova explosions is described and verified. The proposed network is suitable for the study of Type Ia supernova explosions because it provides better values of pressure and electron abundance than other existing networks with smaller or even a similar size but without including electron capture processes.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Compressing the Cosmological Information in One-dimensional Correlations of the Lyman-$\alpha$ Forest

Observations of the Lyman-α forest from spectroscopic surveys such as the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey or its extension, eBOSS, or the ongoing Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey offer a unique window to study the growth of structure on megaparsec scales. Interpretation of these measurements is a complicated task, requiring hydrodynamical simulations to model and marginalize over the thermal and ionization state of the intergalactic medium. This complexity has limited the use of Lyα clustering measurements in joint cosmological analyses. In this work we show that the cosmological information content of the one-dimensional power spectrum (P 1D ) of the Lyman-α forest can be compressed into a simple two-parameter likelihood without any significant loss of constraining power. We simulate P 1D measurements from DESI using hydrodynamical simulations and show that the compressed likelihood is model independent and lossless, recovering unbiased results even in the presence of massive neutrinos or running of the primordial power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evidence for large baryonic feedback at low and intermediate redshifts from kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich observations with ACT and DESI photometric galaxies

Recent advances in cosmological observations have provided an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the distribution of baryons relative to the underlying matter. In this work, we show that the gas is more extended than the dark matter, and the amount of baryonic feedback at $z \lesssim 1$ disfavors low-feedback models such as that of state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG compared with high-feedback models such as that of the original Illustris simulation. This has important implications for bridging the gap between theory and observations and understanding galaxy formation and evolution. Furthermore, a better grasp of the baryon-dark matter link is critical to future cosmological analyses, which are currently impeded by our limited knowledge of baryonic feedback. Here, we measure the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), stacked on the luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging survey. This is the first analysis to use photometric redshifts for reconstructing galaxy velocities. Due to the large number of galaxies comprising the DESI imaging survey, this is the highest signal-to-noise stacked kSZ measurement to date: we detect the signal at 13$σ$, finding strong evidence that the gas is more spread out than the dark matter, as well as a preference for larger feedback compared to some commonly used state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations. Here, our work opens up the possibility of recalibrating large hydrodynamical simulations using the kSZ effect. In addition, our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for baryonic feedback with future surveys such as LSST through direct probes such as the kSZ, and shed light on long-standing enigmas in astrophysics, such as the “missing baryon” problem.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observation of ponderomotively driven bow shock using Thomson scattering

High-energy speckled lasers are known to exert ponderomotive forces on a plasma. This can reduce flow transverse to the propagation of the beams. When coupled with a supersonic flow, this has been shown to lead to the formation of a shock that travels against the flow. Experiments conducted on the OMEGA laser facility have used Thomson scattering to observe density and velocity changes consistent with this ponderomotively driven shock. Comparisons of the data with hydrodynamic simulations with the ponderomotive force, particle-in-cell simulations with a full Maxwell field solver, and hydrodynamic simulations without the ponderomotive force show that this shock feature is only reproduced when accounting for the ponderomotive force.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1994

X-ray clusters from a high-resolution hydrodynamic PPM simulation of the cold dark matter universe

A new three-dimensional hydrodynamic code based on the piecewise parabolic method (PPM) is utilized to compute the distribution of hot gas in the standard Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE)-normalized cold dark matter (CDM) universe. Utilizing periodic boundary conditions, a box with size 85 h(exp-1) Mpc, having cell size 0.31 h(exp-1) Mpc, is followed in a simulation with 270(exp 3)=10(exp 7.3) cells. Adopting standard parameters determined from COBE and light-element nucleosynthesis, Sigma(sub 8)=1.05, Omega(sub b)=0.06, we find the X-ray-emitting clusters, compute the luminosity function at several wavelengths, the temperature distribution, and estimated sizes, as well as the evolution of these quantities with redshift. The results, which are compared with those obtained in the preceding paper (Kang et al. 1994a), may be used in conjuction with ROSAT and other observational data sets. Overall, the results of the two computations are qualitatively very similar with regard to the trends of cluster properties, i.e., how the number density, radius, and temeprature depend on luminosity and redshift. The total luminosity from clusters is approximately a factor of 2 higher using the PPM code (as compared to the 'total variation diminishing' (TVD) code used in the previous paper) with the number of bright clusters higher by a similar factor. The primary conclusions of the prior paper, with regard to the power spectrum of the primeval density perturbations, are strengthened: the standard CDM model, normalized to the COBE microwave detection, predicts too many bright X-ray emitting clusters, by a factor probably in excess of 5. The comparison between observations and theoretical predictions for the evolution of cluster properties, luminosity functions, and size and temperature distributions should provide an important discriminator among competing scenarios for the development of structure in the universe.

Bryan, Greg L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Water Flow Simulation using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH)

Simulation of water flow from the rainbird nozzles has been accomplished using the Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH). The advantage of using SPH is that no meshing is required, thus the grid quality is no longer an issue and accuracy can be improved.

Hydrodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Constraining hydrodynamic models of inertial confinement fusion implosions using capsule surrogate experiments

We conduct capsule surrogate experiments at the National Ignition Facility to calibrate radiation hydrodynamic simulations to infer hydrodynamic conditions that are not observable in indirect drive ignition implosions. We tune the simulations by applying laser power and cross beam energy transfer (CBET) saturation multipliers to match the observables from capsule surrogate experiments. Shock timing, velocity, and symmetry are measured in liquid D 2 filled Keyhole capsule surrogate experiments and implosion trajectory, stagnation time, and shape time history are measured in in-flight 2D backlit x-ray radiography experiments (“2DConA”) of D 2 gas filled capsule implosions. Calibrated simulations suggest that the N210808 ignition implosion (fusion target gain = 0.7) had a shell mass remaining at stagnation of less than the nominal %5 (3.8%) and resulted in less confinement. For N221204, the shell was made 5.75 μm thicker to trade implosion velocity for increased confinement and resulted in a target gain = 1.5 with a shell mass remaining of 5.7%. Furthermore, a single adjusted model can reproduce all shock timing data as changes are made to shell thickness (79–85 μm) and laser wavelength separation (1.8–4.0 Å). However, for the 2DConA implosions, a 5% variation in the peak power laser multipliers and a 30% variation in late-time CBET between experiments are needed to match the observed stagnation times, in-flight $P_2$ shape, and hot-spot $P_2$ shape. While progress is being made to improve the models in simulations using focused experiments, capsule surrogate experiments will continue to be needed to optimize future ignition designs.

Lasers↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of charge exchange on the evaporative wind of HD 209458b

ABSTRACT The role of charge exchange in shaping exoplanet photoevaporation remains a topic of contention. Exchange of electrons between stellar wind protons from the exoplanet’s host star and neutral hydrogen from the planet’s wind has been proposed as a mechanism to create ‘energetic neutral atoms’ (ENAs), which could explain the high absorption line velocities observed in systems where mass-loss is occurring. In this paper, we present results from three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of the mass-loss of a planet similar to HD 209458b. We self-consistently launch a planetary wind by calculating the ionization and heating resulting from incident high-energy radiation, inject a stellar wind into the simulation, and allow electron exchange between the stellar and planetary winds. We predict the potential production of ENAs by the wind–wind interaction analytically, and then present the results of our simulations, which confirm the analytic limits. Within the limits of our hydrodynamic simulation, we find that charge exchange with the stellar wind properties examined here is unable to explain the absorption observed at high Doppler velocities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of mid- Z gas fill on dynamics and performance of shock-driven implosions at the OMEGA laser

Shock-driven implosions with 100% deuterium (D 2 ) gas fill compared to implosions with 50:50 nitrogen-deuterium (N 2 ⁢D 2 ) gas fill have been performed at the OMEGA laser facility to test the impact of the added mid-Ζ fill gas on implosion performance. Ion temperature (Τ ion ) as inferred from the width of measured DD-neutron spectra is seen to be 34%±6% higher for the N 2⁢ D 2 implosions than for the D 2 -only case, while the DD-neutron yield from the D 2 -only implosion is 7.2±0.5 times higher than from the N 2⁢ D 2 gas fill. The T ion enhancement for N 2 ⁢D 2 is observed in spite of the higher Z, which might be expected to lead to higher radiative loss, and higher shock strength for the D 2 -only versus N 2 ⁢D 2 implosions due to lower mass, and is understood in terms of increased shock heating of N compared to D, heat transfer from N to D prior to burn, and limited amount of ion-electron-equilibration-mediated additional radiative loss due to the added higher-Z material. Further, this picture is supported by interspecies equilibration timescales for these implosions, constrained by experimental observables. The one-dimensional (1D) kinetic Vlasov-Fokker-Planck code ifp and the radiation hydrodynamic simulation codes hyades (1D) and xrage [1D, two-dimensional (2D)] are brought to bear to understand the observed yield ratio. Comparing measurements and simulations, the yield loss in the N 2 ⁢D 2 implosions relative to the pure D 2 -fill implosion is determined to result from the reduced amount of D 2 in the fill (fourfold effect on yield) combined with a lower fraction of the D 2 fuel being hot enough to burn in the N 2 ⁢D 2 case. The experimental yield and T ion ratio observations are relatively well matched by the kinetic simulations, which suggest interspecies diffusion is responsible for the lower fraction of hot D 2 in the N 2 ⁢D 2 relative to the D 2 -only case. The simulated absolute yields are higher than measured; a comparison of 1D versus 2D XRAGE simulations suggest that this can be explained by dimensional effects. The hydrodynamic simulations suggest that radiative losses primarily impact the implosion edges, with ion-electron equilibration times being too long in the implosion cores. The observations of increased T ion and limited additional yield loss (on top of the fourfold expected from the difference in D content) for the N 2 ⁢D 2 versus D 2 -only fill suggest it is feasible to develop the platform for studying CNO-cycle-relevant nuclear reactions in a plasma environment.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1995

The ocean response to operational westerly wind bursts during the 1991 - 1992 El Nino

Numerical simulations of the remotely forced ocean response to westerly wind bursts prior to and during the 1991 - 1992 El Nino are examined; the models are forced by wind stress from the U.S. Navy's atmospheric global operational analysis/forecast system. The study focuses on (1) the relative response of the first and second internal modes to a single episode of westerly bursts; (2) the role of westerly bursts in producing the eastern Pacific sea level variations from October 1990 to February 1992; and (3) the relative importance of the remotely forced sea level responses generated by central and western Pacific wind anomalies. The simulation use the Naval Research Laboratory global multilayer formulation; the suite of experiments includes hydrodynamic simulations that use both one- and three- active-layer reduced gravity models as well as an experiment that also includes thermodynamic effects. The models are executed from January 1, 1990, to March 1, 1992, a period that includes 10 significant westerly wind bursts or burst clusters and the 1991 - 1992 El Nino event. The numerical experiments reveal an ability to accurately simulate the eastern Pacific sea level variations during this period. In response to a single burst, the three-layer hydrodynamic simulation reveals that the second internal mode Kelvin wave yields a sea level change at the eastern boundary that is approximately one third that of the first mode and a surface velocity signature that is equivalent to the first mode. During the onset of the El Nino event the inclusion of higher modes also produces a more realistic representation of the observed eastern boundary sea level signal. Furthermore, by comparing the model response to particular wind bursts with the observed sea level at Baltra, Galapagos, a value of 2.5 - 2.6 m/s is suggested as the most appropriate mean speed for the first internal mode Kelvin wave during the onset phase. A scenario for the onset of the 1991 - 1992 El Nino is given.

Kindle, John C.↗