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At least 109 records · Page 6

Assessment of Modeling and Simulation Technical Gaps in Safety Analysis of High Burnup Accident-Tolerant Fuels

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to maintain regulatory-required levels of safety while ensuring economic competitiveness to stay in business. Safety remains a key parameter for all aspects related to the operation of light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), and it can be achieved more economically by using a risk-informed ecosystem, such as that being developed by the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. The LWRS Program is promoting a wide range of research and development activities to maximize both the safety and economically efficient performance of NPPs through improved scientific understanding, especially given that many plants are considering second license renewal. The RISA Pathway has two main goals: The deployment of methodologies and technologies that enable better representation of safety margins and the factors that contribute to cost and safety, and; The development of advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. As part of the RISA Pathway, the Enhanced Resilient Plant (ERP) project refers to an NPP where safety is improved by implementing various measures, such as accident-tolerant fuels (ATF), diverse and flexible coping strategy (FLEX), enhancements to plant components and systems, incorporation of augmented or new passive cooling systems, and utilization of advanced battery technologies. The objective of the ERP research is to use novel methods and computational tools to enhance existing reactors’ safety while reducing operational costs. Many U.S. utilities are targeting implementation of ATFs instead of traditional fuel in the near future since ATFs offer benefits in terms of improved performance and cost savings. The robust properties of ATF make it possible to extend the refueling cycle from 18 to 24 months in addition to the opportunity to use less of fuel. Extensive safety assessments are required to support regulatory requirements and obtain the approvals to use ATFs and the ERP project support the industry by developing novel effective methodologies for safety evaluations. In this project, the technical gaps in the modeling and simulation of the high burnup (HBU) ATF were assessed in terms of the fuel cladding behavior during the postulated accident events. The issues were identified in modeling the cladding deformation, the hydrodynamic change due to cladding deformation and the critical heat flux (CHF). The RELAP5-3D cladding deformation model was assessed by multiple verification tests and validation with the instrumented fuel assembly (IFA) experiment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Identification and Resolution of Gaps in Mechanistic Source Term and Consequence Analysis Modeling for Molten Salt Reactors Salt Spill Scenarios

This report represents an assessment of the gaps in Mechanistic Source Term (MST) and consequence assessment modeling for Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs). The current capabilities for MELCOR and the MELCOR Accident Code System (MACCS) are discussed, along with updates needed in order to address specific needs for MSRs. A test plan developed by Argonne National Laboratories is discussed as addressing some of these gaps, while some will require additional attention. Further recommendations are made on addressing these gaps. This report satisfies the DOE NE Milestone M2RD-21SN0601061 to leverage MELCOR and MACCS to identify parameters of importance for source term assessments for salt spill experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Assessing Inverter-Based Resources Modeling Gaps in Commonly Used Short-Circuit Programs

Future bulk power systems are expected to operate with a high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBR). This is anticipated to fundamentally change the system’s short-circuit behaviors and demand a change in existing transmission line protection settings or schemes. Phasor-domain short circuit programs (e.g., ASPEN, CAPE, and CYME) remain the mainstream tools for developing protection settings. However, the system protection community has shared concerns about the accuracy of IBR models in short-circuit programs. This report compares the performance of existing generic IBR models in short-circuit programs with detailed electro-magnetic transient (EMT) models provided by several different IBR manufacturers in PSCAD, to quantify the short-circuit program’s IBR model accuracy, assess their ability to replicate individual IBR controls such as negative sequence current injections, and identify specific gaps in the existing generic phasor-domain IBR models that are currently available.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Prediction of orbiter RSI tile gap heating ratios from NASA/Ames double wedge model test

In-depth gap heating ratios for Orbiter RSI tile sidewalls were predicted based on near steady state temperature measurements obtained from double wedge model tests. An analysis was performed to derive gap heating ratios which would result in the best fit of test data; provide an assessment of open gap response, and supply the definition of gap filler requirements on the Orbiter. A comparison was made of these heating ratios with previously derived ratios in order to verify the extrapolation of the wing glove data to Orbiter flight conditions. The analysis was performed with the Rockwell TPS Multidimensional Heat Conduction Program for a 3-D, 2.0-inch thick flat RSI tile with 255 nodal points. The data from 14 tests was used to correlate with the analysis. The results show that the best-fit heating ratios at the station farthest upstream on the model for most gap depths were less than the extrapolated values of the wing glove model heating ratios. For the station farthest downstream on the model, the baseline heating ratios adequately predicted or over-predicted the test data.

Source record↗

Orbiter Gap Filler Bending Model for Re-entry

Pressure loads on a protruding gap filler during an Orbiter reentry are investigated to evaluate the likelihood of extraction due to pressure loads, and to ascertain how much bending will be induced by re-entry pressure loads. Oblique shock wave theory is utilized to develop a representation of the pressure loads induced on a gap filler for the ISSHVFW trajectory, representative of a heavy weight ISS return. A free body diagram is utilized to react the forces induced by the pressure forces. Preliminary results developed using these methods demonstrate that pressure loads, alone, are not likely causes of gap filler extraction during reentry. Assessment of the amount a gap filler will bend over is presented. Implications of gap filler bending during re-entry include possible mitigation of early boundary layer transition concerns, uncertainty in ground based measurement of protruding gap fillers from historical Orbiter flight history, and uncertainty in the use of Orbiter gap fillers for boundary layer prediction calibration. Authors will be added to the author list as appropriate.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

TRL Assessment of Solar Sail Technology Development Following the 20-Meter System Ground Demonstrator Hardware Testing

The NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Projects Office has been sponsoring 2 separate, independent system design and development hardware demonstration activities during 2002-2005. ATK Space Systems of Goleta, CA was the prime contractor for one development team and L'Garde, Inc. of Tustin, CA was the prime contractor for the other development team. The goal of these activities was to advance the technology readiness level (TRL) of solar sail propulsion from 3 towards 6 by the year 2006. Component and subsystem fabrication and testing were completed successfully, including the ground deployment of 10-meter and 20-meter ground demonstration hardware systems under vacuum conditions. The deployment and structural testing of the 20-meter solar sail systems was conducted in the 30 meter diameter Space Power Facility thermal-vacuum chamber at NASA Glenn Plum Brook in April though August, 2005. This paper will present the results of the TRL assessment following the solar sail technology development activities associated with the design, development, analysis and testing of the 20-meter system ground demonstrators. Descriptions of the system designs for both the ATK and L'Garde systems will be presented. Changes, additions and evolution of the system designs will be highlighted. A description of the modeling and analyses activities performed by both teams, as well as testing conducted to raise the TRL of solar sail technology will be presented. A summary of the results of model correlation activities will be presented. Finally, technology gaps identified during the assessment and gap closure plans will be presented, along with "lessons learned", subsequent planning activities and validation flight opportunities for solar sail propulsion technology.

Montgomery, Edward E.↗

TRL Assessment of Solar Sail Technology Development Following the 20-Meter System Ground Demonstrator Hardware Testing

The NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) Projects Office has been sponsoring 2 separate, independent system design and development hardware demonstration activities during 2002-2005. ATK Space Systems of Goleta, CA was the prime contractor for one development team and L'Garde, Inc. of Tustin, CA was the prime contractor for the other development team. The goal of these activities was to advance the technology readiness level (TRL) of solar sail propulsion from 3 towards 6 by the year 2006. Component and subsystem fabrication and testing were completed successfully, including the ground deployment of 10-meter and 20-meter ground demonstration hardware systems under vacuum conditions. The deployment and structural testing of the 20-meter solar sail systems was conducted in the 30 meter diameter Space Power Facility thermal-vacuum chamber at NASA Glenn Plum Brook in April though August, 2005. This paper will present the results of the TRL assessment following the solar sail technology development activities associated with the design, development, analysis and testing of the 20-meter system ground demonstrators. Descriptions of the system designs for both the ATK and L'Garde systems will be presented. Changes, additions and evolution of the system designs will be highlighted. A description of the modeling and analyses activities performed by both teams, as well as testing conducted to raise the TRL of solar sail technology will be presented. A summary of the results of model correlation activities will be presented. Finally, technology gaps identified during the assessment and gap closure plans will be presented, along with "lessons learned", subsequent planning activities and validation flight opportunities for solar sail propulsion technology.

Young, Roy M.↗

Assessment of Cold Spray Technology for Nuclear Power Applications

This report provides an overview of cold spray (CS) technology as it relates to repair and fabrication of metal alloys in the nuclear power industry. CS is a relatively new technology with applications established in other industries (e.g., aerospace, defense), and greater use of CS is anticipated within the nuclear power industry. This report is prepared in support of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Action Plan for Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMTs) Rev. 1, which includes objectives to identify the AMTs most likely to be used for nuclear power applications that require NRC approval, and to prepare NRC staff to review regulatory submittals containing components manufacturing using AMTs. In addition to providing an overview of CS technology, this report highlights engineering and scientific knowledge gaps of CS and rates the size of the knowledge gaps. It also assesses importance rankings of the knowledge gaps as they relate to several application categories. The application categories considered in this exercise include factory-applied CS for chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC) mitigation, field CISCC repair, light water reactor (LWR) factory structural fabrication, and LWR field dimensional restoration and corrosion protection. The combination of a knowledge gap size rating and importance ranking for an application can be used to prioritize additional data or information gathering efforts.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Effects of Porous Gap Fillers on Leading-Edge Slat Noise of 30P30N. Part II: PIV Measurements

The leading edge slat of a high-lift system is one of the main contributors to the airframe noise during approach conditions. This paper, the second of two parts, continues our previous studies on the slat gap filler as a passive noise control device on the two-dimensional, 30P30N multielement airfoil. Whereas the earlier study was focused on the effects of an impermeable gap filler that completely blocks the flow through the gap, this follow-on assessment is devoted to permeable slat gap fillers that allow limited amounts of flow to pass through the gap. Part I of this two-part abstract described the aerodynamic and acoustic effects of the permeable gap fillers, as inferred from both the measurements of static and unsteady surface pressures and the microphone array data for the radiated noise. To understand the physical mechanism responsible for the noise reduction documented in Part I, as well as for the accompanying aerodynamic penalty due to the porous gap fillers, Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) is used in this paper to measure the flow details in the slat-cove region of the 30P30N model. A single angle of attack (𝛼 = 5.5◦) and a chord based Reynolds number of 1.71𝑒6 are selected as the test conditions. The PIV results show that the slat flow features are significantly altered with the presence of the porous gap filler, resulting in a more stable slat-cove shear layer and, thus, reduced velocity fluctuations with a successive decrease in the permeability. The porous gap filler with the lowest permeability acts similar to the solid gap filler. However, flow separation is observed on the upper side of the porous interface, which leads to an aerodynamic performance penalty via a reduction in lift on the main wing.

slat noise↗

Technology for return of planetary samples

Technological requirements of a planetary return sample mission were studied. The state-of-the-art for problems unique to this class of missions was assessed and technological gaps were identified. The problem areas where significant advancement of the state-of-the-art is required are: life support for the exobiota during the return trip and within the Planetary Receiving Laboratory (PRL); biohazard assessment and control technology; and quarantine qualified handling and experimentation methods and equipment for studying the returned sample in the PRL. Concepts for solving these problems are discussed.

Source record↗

Physical science research needed to evaluate the viability and risks of marine cloud brightening

Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is the deliberate injection of aerosol particles into shallow marine clouds to increase their reflection of solar radiation and reduce the amount of energy absorbed by the climate system. From the physical science perspective, the consensus of a broad international group of scientists is that the viability of MCB will ultimately depend on whether observations and models can robustly assess the scale-up of local-to-global brightening in today’s climate and identify strategies that will ensure an equitable geographical distribution of the benefits and risks associated with projected regional changes in temperature and precipitation. To address the physical science knowledge gaps required to assess the societal implications of MCB, we propose a substantial and targeted program of research—field and laboratory experiments, monitoring, and numerical modeling across a range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Economic Impact Assessments (EIA) of application of GEOGLOWS in Ecuador: Data Gaps, Limitations and Recommendations

In 2022, the United Nations launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) Program to establish global early warning systems by 2027. To assess the impact of the substantial $3.1 billion annual investment over five years, EW4ALL will consider factors that will require national coordination for the data needed for these assessments. In 2023, Ecuador was identified as one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, emphasizing the need to enhance its early warning systems. In 2020, the SERVIR Amazonia hub implemented the GEOGLOWS streamflow forecast service in collaboration with Ecuador's national meteorological agency (INAMHI). GEOGloWS provides 15-day ensemble forecasts and 80 years of historical streamflow data for every river worldwide through a free web service. The World Meteorological Organization has recognized this initiative as essential in contributing to the UN's call to ensure an 'Early Warning for All' by 2027. In 2023, as part of NASA's continuous efforts to fund research for Policy-Relevant Implementations, an economic impact assessment (EIA) was performed to understand the potential socioeconomic benefits of Early streamflow predictions in Ecuador using the GEOGLOWS service. Preliminary findings highlighted that gaps remain in effectively integrating socioeconomic and Earth observation (EO) data to capture the total value of these predictions. Implementing GEOGLOWS has led to valuable hydrological forecasts; however, the total economic benefits have yet to be documented. This study addresses the gaps and makes recommendations for future work that should focus on capturing the socio-economic benefits and costs associated with these forecasts, including their impact on decision-making at national and local levels. Despite the daily use of GEOGLOWS by key figures, including the President of Ecuador, the need for comprehensive recommendations and assessments is urgent.

Reetwika Basu↗

A Geometric Analysis to Protect Manned Assets from Newly Launched Objects - COLA Gap Analysis

A safety risk was identified for the International Space Station (ISS) by The Aerospace Corporation following the launch of GPS IIR-20 (March 24, 2009), when the spent upper stage of the launch vehicle unexpectedly crossed inside the ISS notification box shortly after launch. This event highlighted a 56-hour vulnerability period following the end of the launch Collision Avoidance (COLA) process where the ISS would be unable to react to a conjunction with a newly launched object. Current launch COLA processes screen each launched object across the launch window to determine if an object's nominal trajectory is predicted to pass within 200 km of the ISS (or any other manned/mannable object), resulting in a launch time closure. These launch COLA screens are performed from launch through separation plus I 00 minutes. Once the objects are in orbit, they are cataloged and evaluated as part of routine on-orbit conjunction assessment processes. However, as the GPS IIR-20 scenario illustrated, there is a vulnerability period in the time line between the end of launch COLA coverage and the beginning of standard on-orbit COLA assessment activities. The gap between existing launch and on-orbit COLA processes is driven by the time it takes to track and catalog a launched object, identify a conjunction, and plan and execute a collision avoidance maneuver. For the ISS, the total time required to accomplish an of these steps is 56 hours. To protect human lives, NASA/JSC has requested that an US launches take additional steps to protect the ISS during this "COLA gap" period. The uncertainty in the state of a spent upper stage can be quite large after all bums are complete and all remaining propellants are expelled to safe the stage. Simply extending the launch COLA process an additional 56 hours is not a viable option as the 3-sigma position uncertainty will far exceed the 200 km miss-distance criterion. Additionally, performing a probability of collision (Pc) analysis over this period is also not practical due to the limiting effects of these large orbit state uncertainties. An estimated upper bound for Pc for a typical spent upper stage if nominally aligned for a direct broadside collision with the ISS is only on the order of 10-6. For a smaller manned object such as a Soyuz capsule, the risk level decreases to an order of 10'8 . In comparison, the Air Force Range policy (AFI 91-217) for launch COLAs would only eliminate launch opportunities when conjunctions with objects exceed a Pc of 10'5 This paper demonstrates a conservative geometry-based methodology that may be used to determine if launch opportunities pose a threat to the ISS during the COLA gap period. The NASA Launch Services Program at Kennedy Space Center has developed this COLA gap analysis method and employed it fQr three NASA missions to identify potential ISS conjunctions and corresponding launch window closures during the 56-hour at-risk period. In the analysis, for each launch opportunity, the nominal trajectory of the spent upper stage and the orbit state of the ISS are propagated over the 56 hour period. Each time the upper stage crosses the orbit plane of the ISS, the relative radial and argument of latitude separations are calculated. A window cutout is identified if these separation differences fall within a mission-specific violation box, which is determined from the evaluation of a Monte Carlo dispersions analysis that quantifies the potential variation in the upper stage radial and argument of latitude differences. This paper details the results of these analyses and their impacts to each mission.

Hametz, Mark E.↗

A Modeling Approach to Support Changeability Analysis and Management of Earth Observation Portfolios

Earth observing (EO) mission portfolios provide data on many geophysical parameters that collectively inform our understanding of the Earth system. To observe large-scale climate trends, it is important to collect data on many parameters over time. However, gaps may occur between missions due to formulation complexity, development delays, and uncertain events in operations. These gaps may impact the ability to provide sustained measurements. Developing a balanced EO mission portfolio is key to supporting study of the Earth system. Yet, decision-making at the portfolio level is a complex task because missions often address multiple parameters. Currently, the likelihood of data gaps is often assessed for an individual parameter, but decisions and events can impact data collection for many parameters. This poster introduces a modeling approach that supports management of the many parameter impacts of decisions and uncertain events. The approach provides a foundation for analyzing changeability in EO mission portfolios. Changeability analysis provides insight into a portfolio’s sensitivity to changes caused by decisions or uncertain events. The model is developed to analyze two aspects of changeability, robustness and flexibility, in EO mission portfolios. In context of these portfolios, the authors define robustness as a portfolio’s ability to provide sustained measurements despite future uncertainties, and they define flexibility as the availability of decision alternatives that contribute to parameter coverage at little detriment to the rest of the portfolio. The proposed model characterizes a portfolio’s sensitivity to change by capturing mission-parameter interconnectivity and redundancy in parameter coverage. The model can be analyzed to identify events that can create substantial gaps, thereby revealing focus areas for mitigation efforts. The model can also be analyzed to identify gap mitigation decisions that may improve parameter coverage with little detriment to the rest of the portfolio, thereby revealing favorable pathways for portfolio improvement. Developing a process for identifying these threats and opportunities will be the focus of future work. A parallel poster proposes a standard for visualizing and communicating portfolio-level impacts of decisions and uncertain events.

Lindsey Jacobson↗

Vulnerability and resilience of urban energy ecosystems to extreme climate events: A systematic review and perspectives

We reviewed the present studies on the vulnerability and resilience of the energy ecosystem (most parts of the energy ecosystem), considering extreme climate events. This study revealed that the increased interactions formed during the transformation of the energy landscape into an ecosystem could notably increase the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure. Such complex ecosystem cannot be assessed using the present state of the art models used by the energy system modelers. Therefore, this study introduces a novel analogy known as the COVID analogy to understand the propagation of disruption within and beyond the energy ecosystem and organized the present state of the art based on the COVID analogy. The analogy helps to categorize the vulnerability of the energy infrastructure into three stages. The study revealed that although there are many publications covering the vulnerability and resilience of the energy infrastructure, considering extreme climate events, the majority are focused on the direct impact of extreme climate on the energy ecosystem. In addition, most of the studies do not consider the impact of future climate variations during this assessment. The propagation of disruptions was assessed mainly for wildfires and hurricanes. Further, there is a clear research gap in considering vulnerability assessment for interconnected energy infrastructure. Here, the transformation of energy systems into a complex ecosystem notably increases the complexity, making it difficult to assess vulnerability and resilience. A shift from a centralized to decentralized modeling architecture could be beneficial when considering the complexities brought by that transformation. Hybrid models consisting of both physical and data-driven machine learning techniques could also be beneficial in this context.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗