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DOE OSTI2021

Propagation of atmospheric pressure plasmas through interconnected pores in dielectric materials

We report the propagation of atmospheric pressure plasmas (APPs) on and through porous dielectric materials is being investigated for plasma-catalysis and functionalizing biomedical materials for tissue scaffolding and bone regeneration. Such plasma functionalization improves wettability and cell attachment, and so uniformity of the treatment of the pore surfaces is important. The method of propagation of APPs through porous media is not well characterized. In this paper, we discuss results from a computational investigation of humid air APPs propagating through short fully interconnected pore-chains in a dielectric substrate. The properties of the dielectric and pores (diameter 150 μm) were chosen to resemble bone scaffolding. We found that photoionization is an important feature in plasma propagation through pore-chains to seed electrons in the following pore in the chain. This seeding of electrons in regions of high electric field allows for the formation of micro-streamers and surface ionization waves. This is particularly important when the openings between pores are small. The orientation of the pore-chain with respect to the applied electric field has a significant impact on plasma generation, mode of propagation, and fluences of short-lived, reactive species to the surfaces of the pores. The uniformity of fluences of charged and short-lived neutral species to the pore surfaces decreases as the angle of the pore chain deviates from being aligned with the applied electric field. Diffusion within pores

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predictive models of long COVID

Background: The cause and symptoms of long COVID are poorly understood. It is challenging to predict whether a given COVID-19 patient will develop long COVID in the future. Methods: We used electronic health record (EHR) data from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative to predict the incidence of long COVID. We trained two machine learning (ML) models — logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF). Features used to train predictors included symptoms and drugs ordered during acute infection, measures of COVID-19 treatment, pre-COVID comorbidities, and demographic information. We assigned the ‘long COVID’ label to patients diagnosed with the U09.9 ICD10-CM code. The cohorts included patients with (a) EHRs reported from data partners using U09.9 ICD10-CM code and (b) at least one EHR in each feature category. We analysed three cohorts: all patients (n = 2,190,579; diagnosed with long COVID = 17,036), inpatients (149,319; 3,295), and outpatients (2,041,260; 13,741). Findings: LR and RF models yielded median AUROC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively. Ablation study revealed that drugs had the highest influence on the prediction task. The SHAP method identified age, gender, cough, fatigue, albuterol, obesity, diabetes, and chronic lung disease as explanatory features. Models trained on data from one N3C partner and tested on data from the other partners had average AUROC of 0.75. Interpretation: ML-based classification using EHR information from the acute infection period is effective in predicting long COVID. SHAP methods identified important features for prediction. Cross-site analysis demonstrated the generalizability of the proposed methodology.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Use of Smart Meter Data to Estimate the Voltage Magnitude on the Primary Side of Distribution Service Transformers: Preprint

This paper develops a novel method to estimate the voltage magnitude on the primary side of distribution service transformers. The proposed method relies exclusively on smart meters, and therefore it is fully data-driven. This is an important feature because electric utilities have detailed models of only the primary network--that is, the network between the distribution substation and the primary side of service transformers that are installed closer to end-customer sites. The network that connects the secondary side of service transformers to end-customer sites, referred to as the secondary network, is simply represented by a lumped load. For each secondary network, the proposed method uses data acquired from only 2 smart meters: the closest and the farthest--in the sense of electrical distance--from the service transformer. As a reference to this feature, the proposed method is named SM2Vp. To our knowledge, this is the first time a method is shown to provide actionable information for real-time operation and control of power distribution grids using only two smart meters per secondary network. This is important because utilities have experienced barriers in managing and using large data sets for real-time operation and control. SM2Vp is primarily intended to provide pseudo-measurements for distribution system state estimation, but it can also be used directly for voltage control schemes. The performance of SM2Vp is demonstrated by numerical simulations carried out on three secondary network synthetic models and by using field data provided by a utility partner serving customers in southwestern California. A maximum relative error of approximately 3.9% or less is observed for the primary voltage magnitude estimates in all numerical experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine Learning Analysis of Direct Dynamics Trajectory Outcomes for Thermal Deazetization of 2,3-Diazabicyclo[2.2.1]hept-2-ene

Experimentally, the thermal gas-phase deazetization of 2,3-diazabicyclo[2.2.1]hept-2-ene (1) results in the loss of N2 and the formation of bicyclo products 3 (exo) and 4 (endo) in a nonstatistical ratio, with preference for the exo product. Here, we report unrestricted M06-2X quasiclassical trajectories initialized from the concerted N2 ejection transition state that were able to replicate the experimental preference to form 3. We found that the 3:4 ratio results from the relative amounts of very fast (ballistic) exotype trajectories versus trajectories that lead to the 1,3-diradical intermediate 2. These quasiclassical trajectories provided a set of transition-state vibrational, velocity, momenta, and geometric features for the machine learning analysis. Additionally, a selection of popular supervised classification algorithms (e.g., random forest) provided poor prediction of trajectory outcomes based on only transition-state vibrational quanta and energy features. However, these machine learning models provided more accurate predictions using atomic velocities and atomic positions, attaining ~70% accuracy using initial conditions and between 85 and 95% accuracy at later reaction time steps. This increased accuracy allowed the feature importance analysis to reveal that, at the later-time analysis, the methylene bridge out-of-plane bending is correlated with trajectory outcomes for the formation of either the exo product or toward the diradical intermediate. Possible reasons for the struggle of machine learning algorithms to classify trajectories based on transition-state features is the heavily overlapping feature values, the finite but very large possible vibrational mode combinations, and the possibility of chaos as trajectories propagate. We examined this chaos by comparing a set of nearly identical trajectories that differed by only a very small scaling of the kinetic energies resulting from the transition-state reaction coordinate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Autonomous platform for solution processing of electronic polymers

The manipulation of electronic polymers’ solid-state properties through processing is crucial in electronics and energy research. Yet, efficiently processing electronic polymer solutions into thin films with specific properties remains a formidable challenge. We introduce Polybot, an artificial intelligence (AI) driven automated material laboratory designed to autonomously explore processing pathways for achieving high-conductivity, low-defect electronic polymers films. Leveraging importance-guided Bayesian optimization, Polybot efficiently navigates a complex 7-dimensional processing space. In particular, the automated workflow and algorithms effectively explore the search space, mitigate biases, employ statistical methods to ensure data repeatability, and concurrently optimize multiple objectives with precision. The experimental campaign yields scale-up fabrication recipes, producing transparent conductive thin films with averaged conductivity exceeding 4500 S/cm. Feature importance analysis and morphological characterizations reveal key design factors. This work signifies a significant step towards transforming the manufacturing of electronic polymers, highlighting the potential of AI-driven automation in material science.

Wang, Chengshi [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL),↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deciphering the archaeological record: Cosmological imprints of nonminimal dark sectors

Many proposals for physics beyond the Standard Model give rise to a dark sector containing many degrees of freedom. In this work, we explore the cosmological implications of the nontrivial dynamics which may arise within such dark sectors, focusing on decay processes which take place entirely among the dark constituents. First, we demonstrate that such decays can leave dramatic imprints on the resulting dark-matter phase-space distribution. In particular, this distribution need not be thermal—it can even be multimodal, exhibiting a nontrivial pattern of peaks and troughs as a function of momentum. We then proceed to show how these features can induce modifications to the matter power spectrum. Finally, we assess the extent to which one can approach the archaeological “inverse” problem of deciphering the properties of an underlying dark sector from the matter power spectrum. Indeed, one of the main results of this paper is a remarkably simple conjectured analytic expression which permits the reconstruction of many of the important features of the dark-matter phase-space distribution directly from the matter power spectrum. Here, our results provide an interesting toolbox of methods for learning about, and potentially constraining, the features of nonminimal dark sectors and their dynamics in the early universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multiplicity dependence of charged-particle production in pp, p–Pb, Xe–Xe and Pb–Pb collisions at the LHC

Multiplicity (N ch ) distributions and transverse momentum (p T ) spectra of inclusive primary charged particles in the kinematic range of |η| < 0.8 and 0.15 GeV/c < p T < 10 GeV/c are reported for pp, p–Pb, Xe–Xe and Pb–Pb collisions at centre-of-mass energies per nucleon pair ranging from $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 2.76 TeV up to 13 TeV. A sequential two-dimensional unfolding procedure is used to extract the correlation between the transverse momentum of primary charged particles and the charged-particle multiplicity of the corresponding collision. This correlation sharply characterises important features of the final state of a collision and, therefore, can be used as a stringent test of theoretical models. The multiplicity distributions as well as the mean and standard deviation derived from the p T spectra are compared to state-of-the-art model predictions. Providing these fundamental observables of bulk particle production consistently across a wide range of collision energies and system sizes can serve as an important input for tuning Monte Carlo event generators.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Comparing models for a unitary black hole S matrix

This paper compares features, challenges, and puzzles of different models for a unitary black hole S -matrix, focusing on both recent nonisometric models, as well as “nonviolent unitarization,” which is based on new quantum interactions of a black hole. As a foundation for comparison, the description of real-time Hawking evolution is first overviewed, including leading effects of gravitational dressing and backreaction. Connection is then made to qubit models for evolution, and some technology is outlined to facilitate their description. Important features of both nonisometric models and nonviolent unitarization are investigated in qubit models, which illustrate essential differences between the respective approaches. The nonisometric models present puzzles for understanding evolution of internal outgoing excitations, which can be excited by interactions such as particle decay. Qubit models for nonviolent unitarization are further developed, and nicely illustrate aspects of that approach. Some remaining questions in generalizing to more complete models for evolution are discussed. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Cation Ordering of Double Perovskite Oxides from Machine Learning and Causal Relations

This work investigates origins of cation ordering in double perovskites using first-principles theory computations combined with machine learning (ML) and causal relations. We have considered various oxidation states of A, A', B, and B' from the family of transition metal ions to construct a diverse compositional space. A conventional framework employing traditional ML classification algorithms such as Random Forest (RF) coupled with appropriate features including geometry-driven and key structural modes leads to accurate prediction (~98%) of A-site cation ordering. We have evaluated the accuracy of ML models by employing analyses of decision paths, assignments of probabilistic confidence bound, and finally a direct non-Gaussian acyclic structural equation model to investigate causality. Our study suggests that structural modes are crucial for classifying layered, columnar, and rock-salt ordering. The charge difference between A and A' is the most important feature for predicting clear layered ordering, which in turn depends on the B and B' charge separation. We have also designed mathematical relationships with these features to derive energy differences to form clear layered ordering. Here, the trilinear coupling between tilt, in-phase rotation, and A-site antiferroelectric displacement in the Landau free-energy expansion becomes the necessary condition behind formation of A-site cation ordering.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Progress toward favorable landscapes in quantum combinatorial optimization

The performance of variational quantum algorithms relies on the success of using quantum and classical computing resources in tandem. Here, we study how these quantum and classical components interrelate. In particular, we focus on algorithms for solving the combinatorial optimization problem MaxCut, and study how the structure of the classical optimization landscape relates to the quantum circuit used to evaluate the MaxCut objective function. In order to analytically characterize the impact of quantum features on the critical points of the landscape, we consider a family of quantum circuit ansätze composed of mutually commuting elements. We identify multiqubit operations as a key resource and show that overparameterization allows for obtaining favorable landscapes. Namely, we prove that an ansatz from this family containing exponentially many variational parameters yields a landscape free of local optima for generic graphs. However, we further prove that these ansätze do not offer superpolynomial advantages over purely classical MaxCut algorithms. Here, we then present a series of numerical experiments illustrating that noncommutativity and entanglement are important features for improving algorithm performance.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) for Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery

Tropical cyclones are an important cause of forest disturbance, and major storms caused severe structural damage and elevated tree mortality in coastal tropical forests. Model capabilities that can be used to understand post-hurricane forest recovery are still limited. We use a vegetation demography model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES) to study the processes and the key factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery. We implemented hurricane-induced forest damage, including defoliation, structural biomass reduction, and tree mortality, performed ensemble model simulations, and used random forest feature importance. For the simulation in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico, we identified factors controlling the post-hurricane forest recovery, and quantified the sensitivity of key model parameters to the post-hurricane forest recovery. The results indicate a tendency for the Bisley forests to shift toward the light demanding plant functional type (PFT) when the pre-hurricane biomass between the light demanding and shade tolerant PFTs is nearly equal and forests experience hurricane disturbance with mortality >60% for both the two PFTs. Under more realistic conditions where the shade tolerant PFT is initially dominant, mortality >80% is required for a shift toward dominance of the light demanding PFT at Bisley. Hurricane mortality and background mortality are the two major factors regulating post-hurricane forest recovery in simulations. This research improves understanding of the ELM-FATES model behavior associated with hurricane disturbance and provides guidance for dynamic vegetation model development in representing hurricane induced forest damage with varied intensities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Pulse: An Outlier Sensitive Downsampling Algorithm For Timeseries Data

Pulse is a downsampling algorithm for timeseries data. Frequently datasets become so large that visualization tools and web browsers cannot effectively render graphics due to memory constraints. Downsampling algorithms are commonly applied to minimize the quantity of data required to visualize important features or trends in the data, but some datasets are composed by distinct enough features and trends that most existing downsampling algorithms fail to preserve them. Pule was developed to downsample timeseries data for galvanostatic stack test data at the Idaho National Laboratory. These datasets were composed by approximately 4 million records, most of them being extremely uniform. However, during relatively brief time periods when the stack test changes state, for example when the test article is powered on, or a load is added, the data produce sparse asymptotes. No existing downsampling algorithm was capable of preserving the sparse asymptotes in electrolysis stack test data. Instead, we develop a downsampling algorithm that preserves important outliers in data, and otherwise aggressively downsamples uniform data. The algorithm has applications in other domains like seismology, in the measurement of earthquakes, or astronomy, in the measurement of quasars or transit photometry.

Woodruff, Nathan [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗

DOE OSTI2021

Microfluidic Liquid-Liquid Extraction Chip with Integrated Raman Sensors (Phase I and Phase II Final Report)

As demand for electricity continues to increase worldwide, the world’s nuclear power generating capacity will continue to grow. Nuclear power is the most environmentally benign way of producing electricity on a large scale. The long-term successful use of nuclear power, however, is critically dependent upon adequate and safe processing and disposal of spent nuclear fuels. A very important feature of nuclear energy is that spent fuels can be reprocessed to recover fissile and fertile materials that can then be used as fresh fuel for nuclear power plants. The DOE-NE Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCR&D) is currently developing nuclear material reprocessing technologies. In a typical nuclear fuel reprocessing system, centrifugal contactors are used as liquid-liquid extraction devices where two immiscible liquids are mixed at high speeds using a rotor, which creates a fine dispersion of droplets of organic phase in an aqueous phase that contains the analyte. Understanding the extraction efficiency at these contactors through modeling and simulation is important in the development of reprocessing technologies and the optimization of current technologies such as the PUREX process. The outcome of this program will be a liquid-liquid microfluidic flow cell chip with embedded spectroscopic sensors for the analysis of extracted analytes. This device will be useful in the optimization of new fuel reprocessing schemes as well as existing reprocessing processes by providing a microfluidic modeling platform to optimize extraction parameters. The Phase I and Phase II work developed a microfluidic chip design that allows integration of Raman and absorption fiber optic probes and successfully demonstrated the feasibility of using Raman and absorption probes to detect key analytes that partition into the aqueous and organic phases.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

The information content of jet quenching and machine learning assisted observable design

Jets produced in high-energy heavy-ion collisions are modified compared to those in proton-proton collisions due to their interaction with the deconfined, strongly-coupled quark-gluon plasma (QGP). In this work, we employ machine learning techniques to identify important features that distinguish jets produced in heavy-ion collisions from jets produced in proton-proton collisions. We formulate the problem using binary classification and focus on leveraging machine learning in ways that inform theoretical calculations of jet modification: (i) we quantify the information content in terms of Infrared Collinear (IRC)-safety and in terms of hard vs. soft emissions, (ii) we identify optimally discriminating observables that are in principle calculable in perturbative QCD, and (iii) we assess the information loss due to the heavy-ion underlying event and background subtraction algorithms. We illustrate our methodology using Monte Carlo event generators, where we find that important information about jet quenching is contained not only in hard splittings but also in soft emissions and IRC-unsafe physics inside the jet. This information appears to be significantly reduced by the presence of the underlying event. We discuss the implications of this for the prospect of using jet quenching to extract properties of the QGP. Since the training labels are exactly known, this methodology can be used directly on experimental data without reliance on modeling. We outline a proposal for how such an experimental analysis can be carried out, and how it can guide future measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2023

maslov-group/FUN-PROSE

mRNA levels of all genes in a genome is a critical piece of information defining the overall state of the cell in a given environmental condition. Being able to reconstruct such condition-specific expression in fungal genomes is particularly important to metabolically engineer these organisms to produce desired chemicals in industrially scalable conditions. Most previous deep learning approaches focused on predicting the average expression levels of a gene based on its promoter sequence, ignoring its variation across different conditions. Here we present FUN-PROSE—a deep learning model trained to predict differential expression of individual genes across various conditions using their promoter sequences and expression levels of all transcription factors. We train and test our model on three fungal species and get the correlation between predicted and observed condition-specific gene expression as high as 0.85. We then interpret our model to extract promoter sequence motifs responsible for variable expression of individual genes. We also carried out input feature importance analysis to connect individual transcription factors to their gene targets. A sizeable fraction of both sequence motifs and TF-gene interactions learned by our model agree with previously known biological information, while the rest corresponds to either novel biological facts or indirect correlations.

Liu, Simon↗

DOE OSTI2023

FUN-PROSE: A deep learning approach to predict condition-specific gene expression in fungi

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Frost prediction using machine learning and deep neural network models

This study describes accurate, computationally efficient models that can be implemented for practical use in predicting frost events for point-scale agricultural applications. Frost damage in agriculture is a costly burden to farmers and global food security alike. Timely prediction of frost events is important to reduce the cost of agricultural frost damage and traditional numerical weather forecasts are often inaccurate at the field-scale in complex terrain. In this paper, we developed machine learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of such frost events near Alcalde, NM at the point-scale. ML algorithms investigated include deep neural network, convolution neural networks, and random forest models at lead-times of 6–48 h. Our results show promising accuracy (6-h prediction RMSE = 1.53–1.72°C) for use in frost and minimum temperature prediction applications. Seasonal differences in model predictions resulted in a slight negative bias during Spring and Summer months and a positive bias in Fall and Winter months. Additionally, we tested the model transferability by continuing training and testing using data from sensors at a nearby farm. We calculated the feature importance of the random forest models and were able to determine which parameters provided the models with the most useful information for predictions. We determined that soil temperature is a key parameter in longer term predictions (>24 h), while other temperature related parameters provide the majority of information for shorter term predictions. The model error compared favorable to previous ML based frost studies and outperformed the physically based High Resolution Rapid Refresh forecasting system making our ML-models attractive for deployment toward real-time monitoring of frost events and damage at commercial farming operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗