Improvement of ACCERT Algorithm - FY20
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CBRN Situational awareness (SA) should be a key operational requirement in the CNI area of discussion, not only for the “boots-on-the-ground” warfighter, but at a strategic level. For example, maneuver plans will need to be developed for contamination avoidance and battlefield survivability. Large datasets from instruments dispersed across the battlefield will thus need to be collected and processed into a holistic assessment of the radiological hazard. From there, hazard maps then must be distributed at the tactical level, all while continuing to effectively engage a peer adversary. This vision represents a network of sensors, software tools, data processing algorithms, communications suites, and common operational picture (COP) platforms working in concert to inform warfighters and command echelons alike of evolving nuclear and radiological hazards. This complex system-of-systems and the ultimate goal of effective engagement in a nuclear or radiological-hazard battlefield can be achieved through pursuit of improvement in collaborative SA tools.
We describe the BeyondPlanck project in terms of motivation, methodology and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in fuller detail. Building directly on experience from ESA's Planck mission, we implement a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a joint posterior distribution P(omega|d), where omega represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission etc.), and cosmological (CMB map, power spectrum etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-l CMB polarization reconstruction, paying special attention to the LFI 44 GHz channel. We find evidence of significant residual systematic effects that are still not accounted for in the current processing, but must be addressed in future work. These include a break-down of the 1/f correlated noise model at 30 and 44 GHz, and scan-aligned stripes in the Southern Galactic hemisphere at 44 GHz. On the Northern hemisphere, however, we find that all results are consistent with the LCDM model, and we constrain the reionization optical depth to tau = 0.067 +/- 0.016, with a low-resolution chi-squared probability-to-exceed of 16%. The marginal CMB dipole amplitude is 3359.5 +/- 1.9 uK. (Abridged.)
Fission Batteries (FBs) are nuclear reactors defined by five characteristics which enable large-scale deployment: cost competitive, standardized sizes for economic mass production, easy installation and removal, secure and safe unattended operation with high reliability. FBs are not defined by technology or power level. Technical and market considerations suggest that most FBs will produce 20 to 30 MWt. This proceedings reports on the outcomes of two workshops that were held in January 2021 to better define markets and economic challenges for FBs. Three major markets were identified. The largest market is the industrial and commercial heat market. There are about 4000 industrial users (excluding utilities) that require more than one megawatt of heat. The number of customers versus size of heat demand was determined. In a low-carbon world there is the potential for many additional customers—including expanded biofuels production and district heat. The second market is for non-grid electricity. This includes co-generation plants that produce heat and electricity for a single customer. The third market is the maritime market with ~100,000 ships worldwide. In the United States, natural gas is the low-cost energy option today and will remain so unless constraints or taxes impact its use. If restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, the FB competition includes natural gas with carbon capture, biofuels, hydrogen and grid electricity. Natural gas with carbon capture is not economically viable on a small scale. Biofuels may be expensive but may be the economically preferred option for locations with small energy demands of a few megawatts. Hydrogen is a potential competitor with many of the characteristics of natural gas. Grid electricity is not a competitive source of heat. For FBs to be economically competitive, the price of delivered heat must be $20-50/MWh ($6-15/million BTU). The economically competitive range for non-grid electricity is estimated at $70-100/MWh. These electricity prices are competitive with the retail prices of electricity in many parts of the United States for the customer. FBs are not expected to be competitive selling wholesale electricity to the grid. To achieve the aforementioned cost targets for heat and electricity markets, FB designers must (1) maximize the power output within the constraints of a FB (e.g., truck transportability, passive decay heat removal), (2) drastically reduce the size of onsite staff, (3) adopt core designs with low fuel costs (enrichment and fabrication), and (4) develop a system design that is efficiently manufactured in factories. The business case depends upon more than being just a replacement for natural gas. The largest incentives for adoption of FBs is where they create new markets and new sources of revenue. An example is the paper and pulp industry that burns biomass wastes to provide heat and electricity to make paper. An external heat source could meet the demand for heat and electricity by the paper process and enable converting waste biomass into liquid biofuels rather than burning to provide heat. Other markets, such as data centers, are driven by special energy requirements such as extreme reliability. Most customers are not in the energy business but need heat and electricity to produce a product—a manufactured good, education, retail sales (shopping malls), marine transport or some other product. As a consequence, there will be large incentives to lease rather than own FBs. Leasing avoids the regulatory challenges that remain with the owner of the FB. Leasing creates large incentives for FP standardization of sizes and transportability to maintain the value of the FB at the end of the lease—similar to the leasing of jet engines and aircraft. The economic constraints combined with technical constraints suggest competitive FBs will likely have outputs exceeding 10 MWt. There appear to be little incentives for very long-lived reactor cores because such machines require much larger inventories of fuel. Maintenance requirements and the options to provide technology updates may favor shorter lifetimes (~5 years). The assessment is that there is the potential for FBs to be economically viable and play a major role in global decarbonization in three markets: heat, non-grid electricity and maritime applications.
A key contributor to high capital costs and schedule overruns for new nuclear power plants is lack of standardization, driven by site-specific customization and construction of multiple designs by competing vendors rather than commitment to a single standardized program. While advanced reactor vendors typically individually target repeat construction of standardized units, the many competing designs could exacerbate the problem. “Open Architecture”, the open specification of requirements and interfaces for structures, systems and components (SSCs), has been proposed as a means of promoting standardization, by facilitating existing non-nuclear suppliers to enter the industry and/or allowing SSCs to be configured for more than one reactor within the same technology type. Contracting mechanisms that facilitate information sharing and alignment of incentives between stakeholders may complement such an approach. A preliminary scheme is presented for selection of SSCs for which such strategies could be adopted, based on a vendor make/buy decision model and stakeholder interviews. SSCs are categorized according to number of suppliers and their contribution to the reactor’s competitive edge. SSCs with many potential suppliers and a high contribution to competitive edge may be attractive for widening the supply chain via open specification of system requirements and interfaces, e.g., SSCs in the power island. SSCs with few suppliers and low contribution to competitive edge may be potential avenues for common system specification between vendors, e.g., some of the auxiliary SSCs. Potential cost reductions from such strategies will depend upon the size of the build program and the reactor type.
Microreactors may be able to be cost competitive in niche markets, but they are likely to be much more expensive than small modular reactors or large reactors in terms of levelized cost. The vision of microreactors being catered to larger markets relies heavily on their ability to be mass produced and cut costs. Since commercial nuclear reactors have not been mass produced before it is challenging to estimate what kind of manufacturing facilities will be needed, what they will cost, and how factory considerations influence the unit cost of microreactors. This summary attempts to imagine the various possible production layouts of microreactors and identify the different possible manufacturing facilities (factories) that might be required. Regulatory and economic considerations for these layouts and factories are then listed.
NEXT-100 is a high-pressure xenon time projection chamber with electroluminescent amplification, designed to operate with up to approximately 70.5 kg at 13.5 bar. It is the most recent detector developed by the NEXT collaboration to search for the neutrinoless double-beta decay ($ββ0ν$) of Xe-136. The NEXT gas TPC technology offers the best energy resolution near the Q-value of the decay ($Q_{ββ}$ = 2458 keV) among xenon detectors, which is set by design to be <1% FWHM. We report here the high-energy calibration of the detector using a Th-228 source, demonstrating linear response and an energy resolution of $(0.90 \pm 0.02)$% FWHM at the Tl-208 photopeak (2615 keV). This performance extrapolates to a resolution at the double-beta decay end-point of $R(Q_{ββ})$ = $(0.93 \pm 0.02)$% FWHM, confirming the detector's capability for precision energy measurement in the search for $ββ0ν$.
The NEXT-DEMO++ detector, a high-pressure xenon gas time projection chamber serving as a prototype for the NEXT-100 experiment, was used to measure the electroluminescence (EL) yield as a function of reduced electric field ($E/p$) across pressures from 2.0 to 9.4 bar, utilizing the 41.5 keV de-excitation peak of $^{83m}$Kr. These measurements were made to examine the pressure dependence of the slope of the reduced EL yield $Y/p$, which has shown inconsistencies in the literature. The reduced yield was fitted with a linear model, revealing a modest ($\sim$5%) change in slope, beginning around 5 bar and increasing with pressure up to 9.4 bar.
Wavelength-shifting (WLS) techniques enable particle detectors based on noble gases, whose scintillation light is predominantly emitted in the vacuum-ultraviolet. We investigate WLS fibers coated with tetraphenyl butadiene (TPB) for scintillation light detection in gaseous xenon and argon at pressures up to 8.5 bar, motivated by future high-pressure xenon time-projection chambers of the NEXT program. Two detector configurations are studied: an elongated high-pressure vessel with four PTFE panels equipped with WLS fibers read by temperature-stabilized SiPMs, and a compact box-shaped detector operated at 1 bar Xe with WLS fibers read out by PMTs. Both operate with continuous gas purification. The detector response is characterized using cosmic muons and alpha particles from a $^{241}$Am source. With the SiPM setup, we measure a light collection efficiency (LCE) of ${1.18 \pm 0.01~\mathrm{(sta.)}~^{+0.07}_{-0.09}~\mathrm{(sys.)}~\%}$ for xenon and ${1.07 \pm 0.01~\mathrm{(sta.)}~^{+0.06}_{-0.08}~\mathrm{(sys.)}~\%}$ for argon. With PMT readout, we measure a LCE of ${0.45 \pm 0.01~\mathrm{(sta.)} \pm 0.05~\mathrm{(sys.)}~\%}$ in xenon, in agreement with the SiPM result once photon detection efficiency is accounted for. Average scintillation waveforms in xenon and argon are studied to assess the time structure of the emitted light. Cosmic-muon measurements yield a mean energy required to produce a scintillation photon $45\pm7~\mathrm{(sta.)}~^{+4}_{-5}~\mathrm{(sys.)}~\mathrm{eV}$ at 1.5 bar, in agreement with the literature. The results demonstrate that TPB-coated WLS fiber systems can reliably detect scintillation light in high-pressure gaseous noble detectors, with a LCE representing an upper limit for realistic large-scale TPCs, where additional photon losses from materials and fiber attenuation are expected.