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At least 109 records · Page 6

Future Climate Projections for South Florida: Improving the Accuracy of Air Temperature and Precipitation Extremes With a Hybrid Statistical Bias Correction Technique

Projecting future climate variables is essential for comprehending the potential impacts on hydroclimatic hazards like floods and droughts. Evaluating these impacts is challenging due to the coarse spatial resolution of global climate models (GCMs); therefore, bias correction is widely used. Here, we applied two statistical methods—standard empirical quantile mapping (EQM) and a hybrid approach, EQM with linear correction (EQM-LIN)—to bias correct precipitation and air temperature simulated by nine GCMs. We used historical observations from 20 weather stations across South Florida to project future climate under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Compared to the EQM, the hybrid EQM-LIN method improved R 2 of daily quantiles by up to 30% over the historical period and improved MAE up to 70% in months that contain most extreme values. Projected extreme precipitation at the weather stations showed that, compared to the EQM-LIN, the EQM method underestimates the high quantiles by up to 26% in SSP585. The projected changes in annual maximum precipitation from historical period (1985–2014) to near future (2040–2069) and far future (2070–2100) were between 2% and 16% across the study area. Projected future precipitation suggested a slight decrease during summer but an increase in fall. This, along with rising summer temperatures, suggested that South Florida can experience rapid oscillations from warmer summers and increased flooding in fall under future climate. Additionally, our comparative analyses with globally and nationally downscaled studies showed that such coarse scale studies do not represent the climatic extremes well, particularly for high quantile precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long distance seawater intrusion through a karst conduit network in the Woodville Karst Plain, Florida

Five periods of increased electrical conductivity have been found in the karst conduits supplying one of the largest first magnitude springs in Florida with water. Numerous well-developed conduit networks are distributed in the Woodville Karst Plain (WKP), Florida and connected to the Gulf of Mexico. A composite analysis of precipitation and electrical conductivity data provides strong evidence that the increases in conductivity are directly tied to seawater intrusion moving inland and traveling 11 miles against the prevailing regional hydraulic gradient from Spring Creek Spring Complex (SCSC), a group of submarine springs at the Gulf Coast. A geochemical analysis of samples from the spring vent rules out anthropogenic contamination and upwelling regional recharge from the deep aquifer as sources of the rising conductivity. The interpretation is supported by the conceptual model established by prior researchers working to characterize the study area. This paper documents the first and longest case of seawater intrusion in the WKP, and also indicates significant possibility of seawater contamination through subsurface conduit networks in a coastal karst aquifer.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Grid Value of Ocean Current Energy in Florida

Ocean current energy technology has been proposed as a potential contributor to Florida's energy portfolio. There has been limited investigation of how this energy would be valued when integrated into the Florida electrical grid. This study assesses three future grid scenarios to evaluate the impact of adding zero-cost ocean current energy to each. The Resource Planning Model, a tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, is used to identify the least-cost generation mix through 2050, with and without ocean current energy. The first scenario is a base case and assumes existing policies in which the addition of ocean current energy does not retire fossil-based technologies but variable generation technologies. In the second scenario, solar and storage technologies are lower cost, and the addition of ocean current generation enables those technologies along with wind to retire existing natural gas units earlier. In the third scenario, which requires a 95% reduction in carbon emissions from 2020 levels by 2050, ocean current energy can play a role in decarbonization along with other variable generation technologies. This analysis is intended to inform stakeholders on the opportunity, potential challenges, and overall value to the grid of ocean current technology from a reliability and availability focused perspective.

capacity expansion model↗

Short-term response to season of burn by amphibians and reptiles in a Florida longleaf pine – wiregrass sandhill

We investigated how herpetofauna respond to burning and burn season in longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) sandhills by contrasting preburn species richness, diversity, and evenness and captures of six reptile and six amphibian species to the first (Y+1) or second (Y+2) year after burn or between dormant-season burns (DSB) and growing-season burns (GSB). Responses to burning overall or burn season were inconsistent among species; several showed no response, whereas others responded positively or negatively. Most responses were evident only in Y+1. Reptile species richness, diversity, and evenness responses were not detected. Amphibian richness increased after burning overall; diversity and evenness decreased more in GSB than in DSB in Y+1. Southern toad (Anaxyrus terrestris (Bonnaterre, 1789)) captures increased and Florida crowned snake (Tantilla relicta Telford, 1966) captures decreased following burns overall in Y+1. Ground skink (Scincella lateralis (Say in James, 1823)) captures increased more in DSB than GSB in Y+1. Florida gopher frog (Lithobates capito (LeConte, 1855)) and southeastern five-lined skink (Plestiodon inexpectatus; Taylor, 1932) captures increased, and oak toad (Anaxyrus quercicus (Holbrook, 1840)) decreased more in GSB than DSB in Y+2. Responses were likely due to changes in aboveground activity affecting captures or (for amphibians especially) annual variability in captures unrelated to burns. Our results indicated that reptiles and amphibians of sandhills are resilient to short-term effects of burning overall and burn season.

Forestry↗

Pooling Data Improves Multimodel IDF Estimates over Median-Based IDF Estimates: Analysis over the Susquehanna and Florida

Traditional multimodel methods for estimating future changes in precipitation intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) curves rely on mean or median of models’ IDF estimates. Such multimodel estimates are impaired by large estimation uncertainty, shadowing their efficacy in planning efforts. Here, assuming that each climate model is one representation of the underlying data generating process, i.e., the Earth system, we propose a novel extension of current methods through pooling model data: (i) evaluate performance of climate models in simulating the spatial and temporal variability of the observed annual maximum precipitation (AMP), (ii) bias-correct and pool historical and future AMP data of reasonably performing models, and (iii) compute IDF estimates in a nonstationary framework from pooled historical and future model data. Pooling enhances fitting of the extreme value distribution to the data and assumes that data from reasonably performing models represent samples from the “true” underlying data generating distribution. Through Monte Carlo simulations with synthetic data, we show that return periods derived from pooled data have smaller biases and lesser uncertainty than those derived from ensembles of individual model data. We apply this method to NA-CORDEX models to estimate changes in 24-h precipitation intensity–frequency (PIF) estimates over the Susquehanna watershed and Florida peninsula. Our approach identifies significant future changes at more stations compared to median-based PIF estimates. The analysis suggests that almost all stations over the Susquehanna and at least two-thirds of the stations over the Florida peninsula will observe significant increases in 24-h precipitation for 2–100-yr return periods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

2000 Southeast Florida Regional Travel Characteristics

The Southeast Florida Regional Travel Characteristics Study (Travel 2000) provided the needed observed travel information for developing planning tools for a three-county region of Southeast Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach). Data collection efforts began in December 1998 and were completed in September 1999. Travel logs were collected for 5,168 households, which included all travel by all residents for one day. In addition, approximately 10,000 bus riders were surveyed, and visitors were surveyed at 79 hotels. Trucking information was gathered from 848 commercial establishments using trucks. Workers were surveyed at seven major employment areas in the three counties.

1Hz data↗

Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune Carbon Burial in Natural and Created Fringing Marshes of Northwest Florida (Choctawhatchee to Pensacola Bay)

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.The research effort described in this report is an attempt to quantify burial rates and standing stocks of carbon in several natural and created (aged 3 to 28 years) marshes in Northwest Florida from eastern Choctawhatchee Bay to Pensacola Bay. The goal of this work was to provide data that are useful in determining the carbon sequestration value of the sites in question and to contribute to a broader understanding of the geographical variability of carbon storage rates in both natural and created marshes. The sites chosen for this study were identified in collaboration with partners from the Choctawhatchee Basin Alliance, Hurlburt Field (part of Eglin Air Force Base), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Florida Department of Environmental Protection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux US-ONA Florida pine flatwoods

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-ONA Florida pine flatwoods. Site Description - Florida Pine flatwoods, continuously with native pastures. Soils are predominantly Spodosols, subject to periodic flooding.

Silveira, Maria L.↗

AmeriFlux US-PAS Florida, Paspalum notatum pasture

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-PAS Florida, Paspalum notatum pasture. Site Description - Florida cultivated grass (Paspalum notatum) pasture rotationally stocked year-round. Soils are predominatly spodosols, subject to periodoc flooding.

Bracho, Rosvel↗

Rare-earth leaching from Florida phosphate rock in wet-process phosphoric acid production

Phosphorite, or phosphate rock, is the most significant secondary rare-earth resource. It contains high amounts of phosphate-bearing minerals along with low contents of rare earth elements (REEs). In Florida, about 19 Mt of phosphate rock are mined annually and most are used to manufacture fertilizers using a wet process, in which sulfuric acid reacts with phosphates to produce phosphoric acid and phosphogypsum. In the wet process, REEs are also leached out into solution and eventually get lost in the leaching residue and phosphate fertilizer. Recovering REEs from Florida phosphate rock in the wet process will be beneficial to broadening rare-earth availability, improving the quality of phosphoric acid product and protecting the environment. Here, this study focuses on the influences of wet-process operating conditions on REE leaching efficiency. The results indicate that REE leaching efficiency increases with phosphoric acid addition in the initial pulp. At a temperature of 75 °C, a stoichiometric ratio of sulfuric acid (H2 SO4 ) to calcium oxide (CaO) of 1.05 and a weight ratio of liquid to solid of 3.5, REE leaching efficiency reached a relatively high value of 52.82 percent. The trends of REE leaching efficiency were similar to those for phosphoric acid (P2O5 ). Extensive tests on the leaching residue showed that during leaching, about 90 percent of the REEs were released from the phosphate rock but only 52.82 percent ended up in the leaching solution. This phenomenon can be attributed to two factors: (1) the effect of phosphate ions (PO43-) in the solution, which caused REE ions to form REE phosphates and be precipitated into the leaching residue, and (2) the influence of large amounts of anions such as sulfate (SO42-), dihydrogen phosphate (H2 PO4-) and hydrogen phosphate (HPO42-) anions as well as the polar molecule H3 PO4 , which surrounded the REE cations and formed an ion atmosphere that prevented the PO43- from contacting and combining with REE cations. Finally, interaction of these two opposite effects determined the REE distribution between leaching solution and residue.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effect of Ducted HPWH on Space-Conditioning and Water Heating Energy Use -- Central Florida Lab Home

The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of ducted heat pump water heaters (HPWH's) on space conditioning and water heating energy use in residential applications. Two identical HPWH's, each of 60 gallon capacity were tested side by side at the Flexible Residential Test facility (FRTF) laboratories of the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) campus in Cocoa, Florida. The water heating experiments were run in each test house from July 2014 until February 2015.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Advanced Grid Support Functionality Testing for Florida Power and Light

This report describes the results of laboratory testing of advanced photovoltaic (PV) inverter testing undertaken by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) on behalf of the Florida Power and Light Company (FPL). FPL recently commissioned a 1.1 MW-AC PV installation on a solar carport at the Daytona International Speedway in Daytona Beach, Florida. In addition to providing a source of clean energy production, the site serves as a live test bed with 36 different PV inverters from eight different manufacturers. Each inverter type has varied support for advanced grid support functions (GSFs) that are becoming increasingly commonplace, and are being required through revised interconnection standards such as UL1741, IEEE1547, and California (CA) Rule 21. FPL is interested in evaluating the trade-offs between different GSFs, their compliance to emerging standards, and their effects on efficiency and reliability. NREL has provided a controlled laboratory environment to undertake such a study. This work covered nine different classes of tests to compare inverter capabilities and performance for four different inverters that were selected by FPL. The test inverters were all three-phase models rated between 24-36 kW, and containing multiple PV input power point trackers. Advanced grid support functions were tested for functional behavior, and included fixed power factor operation, voltage-ride through, frequency ride-through, volt-var control, and frequency-Watt control. Response to abnormal grid conditions with GSFs enabled was studied through anti-islanding, fault, and load rejection overvoltage tests. Finally, efficiency was evaluated across a range of operating conditions that included power factor, output power, and input voltage variations. Test procedures were derived from requirements of a draft revision of UL741, CA Rule 21, and/or previous studies at NREL. This reports summarizes the results of each test case, providing a comparative performance analysis between the four test inverters. Inverters were mostly able to meet the requirements of their stated GSF capabilities, with deviations from expected results discussed throughout the report. There were mixed results across the range of abnormal tests, and results were often dependent on the capability of each test inverter to deploy the GSFs of interest. Detailed test data has been provided to FPL to support future decision making with respect to inverter selection and GSF deployment in the field.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Effect of Ducted HPWH on Space-Conditioning and Water Heating Energy Use -- Central Florida Lab Home

The purpose of this research is to investigate the impact of ducted heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) on space conditioning and water heating energy use in residential applications. Two identical HPWHs, each of 60 gallon capacity were tested side by side at the Flexible Residential Test facility (FRTF) laboratories of the Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC) campus in Cocoa, Florida. The water heating experiments were run in each test house from July 2014 until February 2015.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Epidemiological Investigation of a Mortality Event in a Translocated Gopher Tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) Population in Northwest Florida

Nokuse Plantation, a 22,055 ha private conservation preserve in northwest Florida, is a recipient site for gopher tortoises translocated from development sites in Florida. Since 2006, Nokuse has received over 5,000 tortoises from multiple development sites. During 2013–2015, 52 tortoises were found sick (n = 14) or dead (n = 38) in multiple soft-release enclosures in which tortoises consistently exhibited clinical signs, with additional sick (n = 5) and dead (n = 5) tortoises presenting similarly during 2016–2017. When found alive, tortoises behaved abnormally (e.g., frequently out of burrows during cold weather, pacing along enclosure fencing), appeared emaciated, were lethargic, and had developed redness under plastron scutes. Similar numbers of male (n = 28) and female (n = 32) tortoises were recovered along with two of unidentified sex, including mainly adults (n = 59) and three subadults. Physical examination, blood analysis, and other diagnostics were indicative of starvation and dehydration. Most sick tortoises provided with supportive care recovered. Necropsy findings generally confirmed starvation, with no evidence of infectious pathogens or contaminants. There were no apparent differences in quality of habitat, plant community, or soil or water among affected and unaffected enclosures. Botanical surveys indicated adequate forage quality and quantity, with no poisonous exotic or native plants detected. No land management practices changed prior to this event. Analysis of epidemiological data and demographic factors from before and during this mortality event identified initial density of tortoises in the enclosures as exerting the strongest influence on detection of tortoise morbidity and mortality. We believe that the stress associated with mixing tortoises from different populations and at higher densities during translocation impacted an individual tortoise’s ability to obtain or absorb adequate nutrients from foraging, ultimately leading to a wasting condition consistent with starvation. Based on our findings, we recommend a maximum of 3 gopher tortoises per ha in soft-release enclosures for translocation, but further research is warranted to investigate the complexity of stress and social pressures associated with translocation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High altitude color photography as a tool for regional analysis: As demonstrated for southeastern Florida

High altitude color and color infrared photography of the tri-county region of southeast Florida made it feasible to evaluate its potential for quantifying the dimensions of regional change. Attention was focused upon three main aspects of change in the region, which in fact overlap. These were; (1) the transformation of the southeast Florida wetlands; (2) the expansion of agriculture; and (3) the growth of the urbanized area. The development analyzed covered the period of thirteen years from 1956 to 1969. Results using this new 18 km photography were superior because of the degree of resolution, the combined power of color and color infrared interpretation, and the large area covered by each frame. The greatest advantage of high altitude imagery is the time-saving element, since it is possible to delineate and identify major geographic patterns over thousands of sq km very rapidly.

Eyre, L. A.↗