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NASA NTRS2021

Intergenerational Inequities in Exposure to Climate Extremes: Young Generations Are Severely Threatened By Climate Change

Under continued global warming, extreme events such as heat waves will continue to rise in frequency, intensity, duration, and spatial extent over the next decades. Younger generations are therefore expected to face more such events across their lifetimes compared with older generations. This raises important issues of solidarity and fairness across generations that have fueled a surge of climate protests led by young people in recent years and that underpin issues of intergenerational equity raised in recent climate litigation. However, the standard scientific paradigm is to assess climate change in discrete time windows or at discrete levels of warming, a “period” approach that inhibits quantification of how much more extreme events a particular generation will experience over its lifetime compared with another. By developing a “cohort” perspective to quantify changes in lifetime exposure to climate extremes and compare across generations (see the first figure), we estimate that children born in 2020 will experience a two- to sevenfold increase in extreme events, particularly heat waves, compared with people born in 1960, under current climate policy pledges. Our results highlight a severe threat to the safety of young generations and call for drastic emission reductions to safeguard their future. Meteorological extremes, hazards, or climate change impacts are mostly studied as they evolve over time under varying emission scenarios and socioeconomic pathways. For example, applying a heat wave indicator (see table S1) to four bias-adjusted global climate models indicates that the land area annually affected by such heat waves will increase from ~15% around 2020 to ~22% by 2100 under a scenario compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and to ~46% under a scenario in line with current emission reduction pledges (see the first figure). Recent studies extended this approach, studying aspects of climate change as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) increments, highlighting the scenario-independence of several extreme event indicators but remaining, in essence, a comparison of time windows. By contrast, we performed a birth cohort analysis by combining a collection of multimodel extreme event projections with country-scale life expectancy information, gridded population data, and future global temperature trajectories from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (see supplementary materials). By integrating the exposure of an average person in a country or region to extreme events across their lifetime, we encapsulate spatiotemporal changes in climate hazards, population density, cohort size, and life expectancy (see the first figure).

global warming↗
NASA NTRS1997

Deviations from uniform power law scaling in nonstationary time series

A classic problem in physics is the analysis of highly nonstationary time series that typically exhibit long-range correlations. Here we test the hypothesis that the scaling properties of the dynamics of healthy physiological systems are more stable than those of pathological systems by studying beat-to-beat fluctuations in the human heart rate. We develop techniques based on the Fano factor and Allan factor functions, as well as on detrended fluctuation analysis, for quantifying deviations from uniform power-law scaling in nonstationary time series. By analyzing extremely long data sets of up to N = 10(5) beats for 11 healthy subjects, we find that the fluctuations in the heart rate scale approximately uniformly over several temporal orders of magnitude. By contrast, we find that in data sets of comparable length for 14 subjects with heart disease, the fluctuations grow erratically, indicating a loss of scaling stability.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS1993

Structural similitude and design of scaled down laminated models

The excellent mechanical properties of laminated composite structures make them prime candidates for wide variety of applications in aerospace, mechanical and other branches of engineering. The enormous design flexibility of advanced composites is obtained at the cost of large number of design parameters. Due to complexity of the systems and lack of complete design based informations, designers tend to be conservative in their design. Furthermore, any new design is extensively evaluated experimentally until it achieves the necessary reliability, performance and safety. However, the experimental evaluation of composite structures are costly and time consuming. Consequently, it is extremely useful if a full-scale structure can be replaced by a similar scaled-down model which is much easier to work with. Furthermore, a dramatic reduction in cost and time can be achieved, if available experimental data of a specific structure can be used to predict the behavior of a group of similar systems. This study investigates problems associated with the design of scaled models. Such study is important since it provides the necessary scaling laws, and the factors which affect the accuracy of the scale models. Similitude theory is employed to develop the necessary similarity conditions (scaling laws). Scaling laws provide relationship between a full-scale structure and its scale model, and can be used to extrapolate the experimental data of a small, inexpensive, and testable model into design information for a large prototype. Due to large number of design parameters, the identification of the principal scaling laws by conventional method (dimensional analysis) is tedious. Similitude theory based on governing equations of the structural system is more direct and simpler in execution. The difficulty of making completely similar scale models often leads to accept certain type of distortion from exact duplication of the prototype (partial similarity). Both complete and partial similarity are discussed. The procedure consists of systematically observing the effect of each parameter and corresponding scaling laws. Then acceptable intervals and limitations for these parameters and scaling laws are discussed. In each case, a set of valid scaling factors and corresponding response scaling laws that accurately predict the response of prototypes from experimental models is introduced. The examples used include rectangular laminated plates under destabilizing loads, applied individually, vibrational characteristics of same plates, as well as cylindrical bending of beam-plates.

Simitses, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Pseudo Linear Gyro Calibration

Previous high fidelity onboard attitude algorithms estimated only the spacecraft attitude and gyro bias. The desire to promote spacecraft and ground autonomy and improvements in onboard computing power has spurred development of more sophisticated calibration algorithms. Namely, there is a desire to provide for sensor calibration through calibration parameter estimation onboard the spacecraft as well as autonomous estimation on the ground. Gyro calibration is a particularly challenging area of research. There are a variety of gyro devices available for any prospective mission ranging from inexpensive low fidelity gyros with potentially unstable scale factors to much more expensive extremely stable high fidelity units. Much research has been devoted to designing dedicated estimators such as particular Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithms or Square Root Information Filters. This paper builds upon previous attitude, rate, and specialized gyro parameter estimation work performed with Pseudo Linear Kalman Filter (PSELIKA). The PSELIKA advantage is the use of the standard linear Kalman Filter algorithm. A PSELIKA algorithm for an orthogonal gyro set which includes estimates of attitude, rate, gyro misalignments, gyro scale factors, and gyro bias is developed and tested using simulated and flight data. The measurements PSELIKA uses include gyro and quaternion tracker data.

Harman, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2000

Gravitational Effects on Flow Instability and Transition in Low Density Jets

Recent experiments have shown that low-density gas jets injected into a high-density ambient gas undergo an instability mode, leading to highly-periodic oscillations in the flow-field for certain conditions. The transition from laminar to turbulent flow in these jets is abrupt, without the gradual change in scales. Even the fine scale turbulent structure repeats itself with extreme regularity from cycle to cycle. Similar observations were obtained in buoyancy-dominated and momentum-dominated jets characterized by the Richardson numbers, Ri = [gD(rho(sub a)-rho(sub j))/rho(sub j)U(sub j)(exp 2) ] where g is the gravitational acceleration, D is the jet diameter, rho(sub a) and rho(sub a) are, respectively, the free-stream and jet densities, and U(sub j) is the mean jet exit velocity. At high Richardson numbers, the instability is presumably caused by buoyancy since the flow-oscillation frequency (f) or the Strouhal number, St = [fD/U(sub j)] scales with Ri. In momentum-dominated jets, however, the Strouhal number of the oscillating flow is relatively independent of the Ri. In this case, a local absolute instability is predicted in the potential core of low-density jets with S [= rho(sub j)/rho(sub a)] < 0.7, which agrees qualitatively with experiments. Although the instability in gas jets of high Richardson numbers is attributed to buoyancy, direct physical evidence has not been acquired in experiments. If the instability is indeed caused by buoyancy, the near-field flow structure of the jet will change significantly when the buoyancy is removed, for example, in the microgravity environment. Thus, quantitative data on the spatial and temporal evolutions of the instability, length and time scale of the oscillating mode and its effects on the mean flow and breakdown of the potential core are needed in normal and microgravity to delineate gravitational effects in buoyant jets. In momentum dominated low-density jets, the instability is speculated to originate in the potential core. However, experiments have not succeeded in identifying the direct physical cause of the instability. For example, the theory predicts an oscillating mode for S<0.62 in the limit of zero momentum thickness, which contradicts with the experimental findings of Kyle and Sreenivasan. The analyses of momentum-dominated jets neglect buoyancy effects because of the small Richardson number. Although this assumption is appropriate in the potential core, the gravitational effects are important in the annular region surrounding the jet, where the density and velocity gradients are large. This reasoning provides basis for the hypothesis that the instability in low Richardosn number jets studied by Kyle and Sreenivasan and Monkewitz et al. is caused by buoyancy. The striking similarity in characteristics of the instability and virtually the identical conclusions reached by Subbarao and Cantwell in buoyant (Ri>0.5) helium jets on one hand and by Kyle and Sreenivasan in momentum-dominated (Ri<1x10(exp -3)) helium jets on the other support this hypothesis. However, quantitative experiments in normal and microgravity are necessary to obtain direct physical evidence of buoyancy effects on the flow instability and structure of momentum-dominated low-density jets. The primary objective of this new research project is to quantify how buoyancy affects the flow instability and structure in the near field of low-density jets. The flow will be described by the spatial and temporal evolutions of the instability, length and time scales of the oscillating mode, and the mean and fluctuating concentration fields. To meet this objective, concentration measurements will be obtained across the whole field using quantitative Rainbow Schlieren Deflectometry, providing spatial resolution of 0.1mm and temporal resolution of 0.017s to 1ms. The experimental effort will be supplemented with linear stability analysis of low-density jets by considering buoyancy. The first objective of this research is to investigate the effects of gravity on the flow instability and structure of low-density jets. The flow instability in these jets has been attributed to buoyancy. By removing buoyancy in our experiments, we seek to obtain the direct physical evidence of the instability mechanism. In the absence of the instability, the flow structure will undergo a significant change. We seek to quantify these changes by mapping the flow field (in terms of the concentration profiles) of these jets at non-buoyant conditions. Such information is presently lacking in the existing literature. The second objective of this research is to determine if the instability in momentum-driven, low-density jets is caused by buoyancy. At these conditions, the buoyancy effects are commonly ignored because of the small Richardson based on global parameters. By eliminating buoyancy in our experiments, globally as well as locally, we seek to examine the possibility that the instability mechanism in self-excited, buoyant or momentum-driven jets is the same. To meet this objective, we would quantify the jet flow in normal and microgravity, while systematically decreasing the Richardson number from buoyancy-driven to momentum driven flow regime. The third objective of this research is to perform a linear stability analysis of low-density gas jets by including the gravitational effects. The flow oscillations in these jets are attributed to an absolute instability, whereby the disturbance grows exponentially at the site to ultimately contaminate the entire flow field. We seek to study the characteristics of both convective and absolute instabilities and demarcate the boundary between them.

Agrawal A. K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Chemical Engineering in Space

The aerospace industry has long been perceived as the domain of both physicists and mechanical engineers. This perception has endured even though the primary method of providing the thrust necessary to launch a rocket into space is chemical in nature. The chemical engineering and chemistry personnel behind the systems that provide access to space have labored in the shadows of the physicists and mechanical engineers. As exploration into the cosmos moves farther away from Earth, there is a very distinct need for new chemical processes to help provide the means for advanced space exploration. The state of the art in launch systems uses chemical propulsion systems, primarily liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen, to provide the energy necessary to achieve orbit. As we move away from Earth, there are additional options for propulsion. Unfortunately, few of these options can compare to the speed or ease of use provided by the chemical propulsion agents. It is with great care and significant cost that gaseous compounds such as hydrogen and oxygen are liquefied and become dense enough to use for rocket fuel. These low-temperature liquids fall within a specialty area known as cryogenics. Cryogenics, the science and art of producing cold operating conditions for use on Earth, in orbit, or on some other nonterrestrial body, has become increasingly important to our ability to travel within our solar system. The production of cryogenic fuels and the long-term storage of these fluids are necessary for travel. As our explorations move farther away from Earth, we need to address how to produce the necessary fuels to make a round-trip. The cost and the size of these expeditions are extreme at best. If we take everything necessary for our survival for the round-trip, we invalidate any chance of travel in the near future. As with the early explorers on Earth, we need to harvest much of our energy and our life support from the celestial bodies. The in situ production of these energy sources is paramount to success. We are currently working on several processes to produce the propellants that would allow us to visit and explore the surface of Mars. The capabilities currently at our disposal for launching and delivering equipment to another planet or satellite dictate that the size and scale of any hardware must be extremely small. The miniaturization of the processes needed to prepare the in situ propellants and life support commodities is a real challenge. Chemical engineers are faced with the prospect of reproducing an entire production facility in miniature so the complex can be lifted into space and delivered to our destination. Another area that does not normally concern chemical engineers is the extreme physical aspects payloads are subjected to with the launch of a spacecraft. Extreme accelerations followed by the sudden loss of nearly all gravitational forces are well outside normal equipment design conditions. If the equipment cannot survive the overall trip, then it obviously will not be able to yield the needed products upon arrival. These launch constraints must be taken into account. Finally, we must consider both the effectiveness and efficiencies of the processes. A facility located on the Moon or Mars will not have an unlimited supply of power or other ancillary utilities. For a Mars expedition, the available electric power is severely limited. The design of both the processes and the equipment must be considered. With these constraints in mind, only the most efficient designs will be viable. Cryogenics, in situ resource utilization, miniaturization, launchability, and power/process efficiencies are only a few of the areas that chemical engineers provide support and expertise for the exploration of space.

Lobmeyer, Dennis A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of a Global Landslide Catalog

Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations ofwhere andwhen landslides have happened andmay occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer. herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslideswere reportedmost frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5% of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates fromthe Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60% of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMMrecord for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.

Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2016

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

extreme weather events↗
NASA NTRS2021

Uncertainties, Limits, and Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation for Soil Moisture Drought in Southwestern North America

Over the last two decades, southwestern North America (SWNA) has been in the grip of one of the most severe droughts of the last 1,200 years, with one third to nearly one half of its severity attributable to climate change. We analyze how the risk of extreme soil moisture droughts in SWNA, analogous to the most severe 21-year (≥ in magnitude to 2000–2020) and single-year (≥ in magnitude to 2002) events of the last several decades, changes in projections from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. By the end of the 21st century, SWNA experiences robust (R ≥ 0.80) soil moisture drying and substantial increases in extreme single-year drought risk that scale strongly with warming, spanning an 8%–26% probability of occurrence across +2–4 K. Notably, our results show that 21-year droughts analogous to 2000–2020 are up to 5 times more likely than extreme single-year droughts under all levels of warming (≈50%). These high levels of 21-year drought risk are largely invariant across scenarios because of large spring precipitation declines in half the models, shifting SWNA into a drier mean state. Despite projections of this sweeping and ostensibly inevitable increase in 21-year drought risk, climate mitigation reduces their severity by reducing the magnitude of extreme single-year droughts during these events. Our results emphasize both the importance of preparing SWNA for imminent increases in persistent drought events and constraining projected precipitation uncertainty to better resolve future long-term drought risk.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2013

Future Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health over the Coterminous U.S.

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km), to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wideranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Seasonal Prediction of an Extreme Temperature Index over the United States

Heat extremes have the potential to cause significant societal harm; advanced warming of the frequency of these events for a given season could help with planning and mitigation measures. While an individual temperature extreme event may not be predictable on seasonal time scales, the number of such events could be. In this study, we use an index representing the number of extreme days per summer to examine the ability of NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction system to predict summertime temperature extremes over the continental United States. The index is defined as the number of days per summer (June-August) where the daily mean temperature is above the calendar-day 90th percentile and is computed for 1991-2020 using the GEOS-S2S seasonal retrospective forecasts as well as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2). Temporal correlations are assessed over this period at the grid point scale, indicating significant correlation between the retrospective forecasts and MERRA-2, particularly in the western half of the United States. Spatial correlations between the retrospective forecast and MERRA-2 indices are computed over the United States for each year revealing year-to-year variability in the forecast skill. We investigate local and remote processes associated with increased prediction skill of summertime temperature extremes in a given year.

Natalie Thomas↗
NASA NTRS1986

International Halley Watch: Discipline specialists for large scale phenomena

The largest scale structures of comets, their tails, are extremely interesting from a physical point of view, and some of their properties are among the most spectacular displayed by comets. Because the tail(s) is an important component part of a comet, the Large-Scale Phenomena (L-SP) Discipline was created as one of eight different observational methods in which Halley data would be encouraged and collected from all around the world under the aspices of the International Halley Watch (IHW). The L-SP Discipline Specialist (DS) Team resides at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center under the leadership of John C. Brandt, Malcolm B. Niedner, and their team of image-processing and computer specialists; Jurgan Rahe at NASA Headquarters completes the formal DS science staff. The team has adopted the study of disconnection events (DE) as its principal science target, and it is because of the rapid changes which occur in connection with DE's that such extensive global coverage was deemed necessary to assemble a complete record.

Brandt, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

It's the Heat AND the Humidity -- Assessment of Extreme Heat Scenarios to Enable the Assessment of Climate Impacts on Public Health

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. In a NASA-funded project supporting the National Climate Assessment, we are providing historical and future measures of extreme heat to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The project s emphasis is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM output, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons, 2040 and 2090, are the focus of future assessments; these are compared to the recent past period of 1981-2000. We are characterizing regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM output for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM output have been analyzed to develop a heat stress climatology based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and past periods have been used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes, combined with hourly historical meteorological data at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, enable us to create future climate realizations, from which we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields. These include the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices and a new heat stress variable that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. All output is being provided at the 12 km spatial scale and will also be aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health researchers. County-level statistics will be made available by our collaborators at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. CDC WONDER makes the information resources of the CDC available to public health professionals and the general public. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER will allow decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. It will also allow public health researchers and policy makers to better include such heat stress measures in the context of national health data available in the CDC WONDER system. The users will be able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Crosson, William L↗
NASA NTRS2020

Advancing Precipitation Estimation, Prediction, and Impact Studies

Precipitation exhibits a large variability over a wide range of space and time scales: from seconds to years and decades in time; from the millimeter scale of microphysical processes to regional and global scales in space. It also exhibits a large variability in magnitude and frequency, from low extremes resulting in prolonged droughts to high extremes resulting in devastating floods. Improving precipitation estimation and prediction has great societal impact for decision support in water resources management, infrastructure protection and design under accelerating climate extremes, quantifying water and energy balances at the regional to global scales, and predicting hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts that affect the economy and security around the world (e.g., Blunden and Arndt, 2019). Yet, despite significant advances in observations and physical understanding, precipitation still remains one of the most challenging variables to model and predict at local, regional and global scales with significant implications for our ability to quantify water and energy cycle dynamics, inform decision making, and predict hydro-geomorphic hazards in response to precipitation extremes (e.g. Maggioni and Massari, 2019).

Efi Foufoula-Georgiou↗
NASA NTRS1981

Tornadoes and downbursts in the context of generalized planetary scales

In order to cover a wide range of horizontal dimensions of airflow, the paper proposes a series of five scales, maso, meso, miso (to be read as my-so), moso and muso arranged in the order of the vowels, A, E, I, O, U. The dimensions decrease by two orders of magnitude per scale, beginning with the planet's equator length chosen to be the maximum dimension of masoscale for each planet. Mesoscale highs and lows were described on the basis of mesoanalyses, while sub-mesoscale disturbances were depicted by cataloging over 20,000 photographs of wind effects taken from low-flying aircraft during the past 15 years. Various motion thus classified into these scales led to a conclusion that extreme winds induced by thunderstorms are associated with misoscale and mososcale airflow spawned by the parent, mesoscale disturbances.

Fujita, T. T.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Particle acceleration parallel and perpendicular to the magnetic field observed by DE-2

Observations by the instrument payload on DE-2 have been used to study the plasma and electrodynamic properties of the ionosphere when field-aligned currents approaching 100 microA/sq m flow at about 900-km altitude. In such a situation, it is found that the thermal ions may account for a substantial fraction of the current carriers and that the bulk of the energetic electron population has undergone a net acceleration of a few hundred electron volts. Large amplitude electrostatic waves that have a maximum near 100 Hz and an energetic ion population that shows evidence for both parallel and perpendicular acceleration to about 30 eV also accompany such events. The horizontal thermal ion drift (electric field) that accompanies these plasma phenomena has extremely large gradients over small spatial scales. Such a signature is consistent with a requirement for a large field-aligned current, and a limit to the available field-aligned potential difference that may be applied to the plasma.

Heelis, R. A.↗