Framework for Extracting and Characterizing Load Profile Variability Based on a Comparative Study of Different Wavelet Functions
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
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Flexible Grid-Based Electrolysis Hydrogen Production for Fuel Cell Vehicles Reduces Costs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) have been proposed as an option for lowering carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and pollutants emissions from the transportation sector, when implemented in combination with green hydrogen production methods such as water electrolysis powered by renewable electricity. FCEVs also have the added advantages of high specific energy density and rapid refueling, two important challenges that battery electric vehicles have not yet fully overcome. Moreover, flexible operation of electrolysis could support the grid and lower electricity costs. In this paper, we simulate time-varying FCEV hydrogen refueling demand for light, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles met using electrolysis systems distributed throughout the Western U.S. power system. We find that by oversizing electrolyzers the resulting load flexibility results in different hydrogen generation temporal profiles, average electricity costs, renewable curtailment levels, and CO2 emissions. Our results indicate that increasing hydrogen production flexibility lowers hydrogen and electricity generation cost and CO 2 emissions, but there is a tradeoff between lowering operational cost and increasing electrolyzer capital cost, yielding a minimum total system cost at a size corresponding to between 80% and 90% annual capacity factor assuming a future electrolyzer cost of $300/kW.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Climate Influences on Capacity Expansion Planning with Application to the Western U.S
Electric power system planners utilize a variety of planning tools to inform decisions concerning generation and transmission additions to the electric grid, the need for operational changes, and to evaluate potential stressors on the system. Numerous factors contribute to the planning process including projected fuel and technology costs, policy and load profiles. There is also a growing recognition of the interdependency of the electric grid with other natural and engineered systems. Here we explore how future climate change and hydropower operability might influence decisions related to electricity capacity expansion planning and operations. To do so we assemble a multi-model framework. Specifically, water resource modeling is used to simulate climate impacts on future water supply for thermoelectric and hydropower generation. Separately, temperature impacts on electricity load are evaluated. Together, these climate factors spatially constrain a capacity expansion model that projects generation and transmission additions to the grid. The projected new capacity-builds are then evaluated on their operations, reliability, and cost under average and extreme climate conditions using production cost modeling. This coupled framework is demonstrated on the electric grid in the Western U.S., supporting capacity expansion planning by WECC, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regional entity responsible for reliability assurance of the Western Interconnection. This region was selected in part because the West is unique in that it has high potential for renewable penetrations and is experiencing large retirements/displacements of baseload resources, primarily coal, leading to possible operational challenges in terms of changing resource mix and the need for resource flexibility. Toward this challenge, planning scenarios encompass a range of alternative energy, climate and drought futures. In this context we explore answers to two strategic questions: 1) How does changing climate influence electricity expansion planning (generation and transmission) and future operations, including type and capacity of new builds, system reliability, cost and environmental impacts? 2) How does the representation of hydropower in the modeling framework influence the evaluation of bulk power system operations? Results indicate that climate has a measurable influence on recommendations concerning the capacity, type and location of new generation and transmission additions, with up to 17 GW additional capacity needed by 2038 to meet peak loads (~6.6% increase over capacity-builds based on historical climate). The extent of additional infrastructure needs is strongly influenced by future water availability for hydropower and the potential deployment of demand response technologies. Systems designed for future climate conditions were found to maintain high system reliability under a range of electricity and water availability scenarios (including significant drought), with minimal system curtailments. Additional capacity needs due to higher load tend to increase cumulative 20-year investment and operating costs by $\$$5-$\$$17 billion and generation costs increase by 9 to 19%. Finally, changing the representation of hydropower flexibility has a relatively small influence on capacity expansion in the Western Interconnection through 2038, but hydropower flexibility impacts generation costs to a similar extent as climate.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock
The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation. To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that culminated in this publicly available dataset of calibrated and validated 15-minute resolution load profiles for all major residential and commercial building types and end uses, across all climate regions in the United States. These EULPs were created by calibrating the ResStock and ComStock physics-based building stock models using many different measured datasets, as described in the "Technical Report Documenting Methodology" linked in the submission.
Array↗
End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Demand Control Ventilation
This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - Demand Control Ventilation (DCV). DCV can save energy by reducing the rate at which outdoor air (OA) is delivered during periods of less-than-design occupancy. This measure will enable DCV for air loops using applicable HVAC system types (all except dedicated outdoor air systems [DOAS], packaged systems, or that have an energy recovery ventilator [ERV]) and serving applicable space types (all except kitchens, dining areas, patient spaces, mechanical rooms, stairwells and corridors, or high exhaust space types) using model occupancy schedules to control the DCV. The measure is applicable to 72.7% of the stock floor area. As office buildings outside of California in ComStock are modeled using a single, whole-building space type, DCV is not applied to these building types. The DCV measure demonstrates 2.6% total site energy savings (119 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control
Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification
The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High- quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation (Frick, Eckman, and Goldman 2017; Frick 2019). To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project - End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock - that culminated in the release of a publicly available dataset1 of simulated EULPs representing residential and commercial buildings across the contiguous United States. The motivation for this work is further detailed in a November 2019 report: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps (Mims Frick et al. 2019). This Methodology and Results report provides detailed descriptions of how the dataset was developed, intended for an audience of dataset and model users interested in the technical details. These details include descriptions of all of the model improvements made for calibration and the final comparisons to empirical data sources. A companion report, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Applications and Opportunities, will be published subsequently and will describe example applications and considerations for using the dataset, intended for an audience of general dataset users.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Economizers
Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Low-Cost Identification and Monitoring of Diverse MELs in Residential and Commercial Buildings with PowerBlade (Final Technical Report)
This report describes our progress in developing a scalable wireless metering system that integrates plug-load energy meters that measure real, reactive, and apparent power along with load monitoring based on extracting high-fidelity electrical waveform features collected at every load to capture power profiles and automatically identify and categorize MELs, and make this technology available to the research, commercial, and government sectors.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
Development of Multiresolution Capabilities for the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool A progress update
INL researchers work on technoeconomic analyses for integrated energy systems (IES) using the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). Within FORCE, researchers use the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool to conduct optimization of grid portfolios under uncertain market conditions. These optimizations determine optimal capacities for all IES components and strategies for resource dispatch which maximize some economic metric (e.g., net present value). Resource dispatch occurs on finer timescales (typically hours) and thus are asked to respond to a given time series (e.g. hourly load demand profiles for a grid, or pre-determined electricity prices). Volatile and complex bidding dynamics as well as poorly forecasted weather events within deregulated markets add uncertainty to the time series; FORCE can address this uncertainty by training a reduced order model on historical time series and generate unique synthetic time series which represent individual scenarios or realizations of the market. The IES configuration can be simulated under these different sampled realizations and a stochastic optimization is conducted which optimizes the expected value of the desired economic metric. The training of a synthetic time series generator is limited by the chosen time resolution; dynamics can occur on different time scales. Seasonal demand trends can dominate faster dynamical events (such as power outages from certain sectors or severe weather events) which might not get captured correctly by the trained model. In this report, we investigate different ways of addressing the training and generation of time series on multiple time scales using three main algorithms: wavelet decomposition, dynamic mode decomposition, and generative adversarial networks for time series. We demonstrate a time series analysis that yields information on not just the frequency space but also temporal space: where a fast Fourier transform can provide what frequencies dominate, the new algorithms can provide when the frequencies dominate as well. These analyses can help improve IES optimization by allowing researchers to couple simulations at different timescales when it is most needed - seasonal, day-ahead, and real time optimization - with greater computational efficiency. Future work will include implementation of a subset of the proposed algorithms into the FORCE toolset and application of these analyses into multiple timescale optimization.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Time and Frequency Analysis of Load Profile Data
Technology advancements and integration of modern advanced metering systems can monitor, forecast, inform, control, and operate the building's mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) systems. They offer a higher level of information, which can contribute to making smart buildings more energy efficient and to making them closer to becoming grid-interactive energy efficient buildings (GEB). This paper builds on the ongoing research on variability analysis of a case study building with a 1-minute load profile and examines the Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) process in the frequency domain to quantify the signal's energy in each bandwidth, with respect to each end-use category. Moreover, the amount of variability in the total variability is not similar among the end-use categories. This information is needed to understand the behavior of the variability in the frequency domain for future applications, such as generating synthetic load profiles with a similar frequency spectrum as the measured signal.
decomposition↗
A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data
Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
COVID-19 pandemic ramifications on residential Smart homes energy use load profiles
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected people’s behavioral patterns and schedules because of stay-at-home orders and a reduction of social interactions. Therefore, the shape of electrical loads associated with residential buildings has also changed. In this paper, we quantify the changes and perform a detailed analysis on how the load shapes have changed, and we make potential recommendations for utilities to handle peak load and demand response. Our analysis incorporates data from before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, from an Alabama Power Smart Neighborhood with energy-efficient/smart devices, using around 40 advanced metering infrastructure data points. This paper highlights the energy usage pattern changes between weekdays and weekends pre– and post–COVID-19 pandemic times. The weekend usage patterns look similar pre– and post–COVID-19 pandemic, but weekday patterns show significant changes. We also compare energy use of the Smart Neighborhood with a traditional neighborhood to better understand how energy-efficient/smart devices can provide energy savings, especially because of increased work-from-home situations. HVAC and water heating remain the largest consumers of electricity in residential homes, and our findings indicate an even further increase in energy use by these systems.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Airport Ground Support Equipment Analysis
Ground support equipment (GSE) plays a critical role in providing services to aircraft at arrival and departure gates, ensuring smooth and efficient airport operations. As the airline industry seeks to reduce costs and expand energy options, electric GSE (eGSE) is emerging as a promising solution. This project examines the integration of eGSE into airport operations, addressing key considerations such as vehicle deployment, charging infrastructure, and grid impacts. We developed a flexible, bottom-up modeling framework to evaluate energy demands and infrastructure requirements across more than 300 U.S. airports, providing actionable insights to support electrification planning and implementation. The study focuses on eight major types of GSE with commercially available electric counterparts: aircraft tractors, ground power units, baggage tractors, belt loaders, cargo loaders, catering trucks, lavatory trucks, and water trucks. Project results include annual charging load profiles, total energy consumption, and the charger and fleet requirements for each airport.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Hourly Electricity Demand Profiles for Each County in the Contiguous United States
This dataset provides estimated hourly electricity demand for each county in the contiguous United States from 2016-2023. The demand profiles represent the sum of two components: (1) Weighted averages of reported hourly demand profiles for North American Electric Reliability Corporation balancing authority (BA) regions and subregions, scaled to match annual estimates of county-level retail sales and direct use of electricity and weighted by the estimated percentage of county load served by each BA region or subregion. (2) Weighted averages of modeled hourly, county- and sector-level distributed photovoltaic (DPV) capacity factor profiles, scaled to match annual estimates of on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity for each county and weighted by the percentage of consumption attributable to each sector Annual county-level retail sales are estimated by aggregating utility-reported sales to the state level and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of state population. Annual county-level direct use is calculated by aggregating power plant-reported direct use values. Annual county-level on-site consumption of DPV-generated electricity is estimated by aggregating utility-reported net metering data to determine the amount of DPV-generated electricity sold back to the grid for each state, subtracting those values from modeled state-level DPV generation estimates, and allocating the results to counties according to each county's share of statewide modeled DPV generation. The open-source Python code used to develop this dataset is available at "Historical Load Data Repository" link below.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Power System Operational Impacts of Electric Vehicle Dynamic Wireless Charging
The electrification of the transportation sector poses an opportunity for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. Electric vehicle (EV) charging through dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), known as roadway electrification, could shift EV demand profiles to better coincide with renewable electricity generation. However, this would be a very large new load and few studies evaluate the regional impacts of DWPT charging in a power transmission system. This paper defines methods that address dataset generation for passenger vehicle trips and models to evaluate regional impacts for this emerging technology. Household vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data form localized EV demand profiles through discrete-event simulation. This data serves as exogenous inputs for a Production Cost Model (PCM) of a synthetic transmission system based on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas's (ERCOT) network. EV charging methods are compared for both a 2018 baseline generation mixture and a high-renewable generation case incorporating 20 GW of installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity. The PCM employs unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC&ED) models to compare financial, environmental, and grid reliability impacts from EV charging across passenger EV adoption levels. In-transit charging could reduce grid operational costs by as much as 1.49%, with up to $13.7B saved in annual vehicle operational costs for consumers compared to gas-powered vehicles. Health impacts analysis from power plant and vehicle tailpipe emissions from this study show net health benefits increase by 40% for in-transit charging coupled with high renewable generation. Renewable resources provide an avenue for cost-effective in-transit charging with reduced emissions. The combination of dataset generation and open-source power system modeling establish a foundation for the holistic evaluation of regional DWPT impacts.
dynamic wireless power transfer↗
Heavy-Duty Truck Electrification and the Impacts of Depot Charging on Electricity Distribution Systems
Major technological advancements and recent policy support are improving the outlook for heavy-duty truck electrification in the United States. In particular, short-haul operations (=200 miles (=322 km)) are prevalent and early candidates for plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) given their short, predictable routes and return-to-base applications, which allows vehicles to recharge when off shift at their depots. Although previous studies investigated the impacts of added electrical loads on distribution systems, which included light-duty EVs, the implications for heavy-duty EV charging are underexplored. Here we summarize the causes, costs and lead times of distribution system upgrades anticipated for depot charging. We also developed synthetic depot charging load profiles for heavy-duty trucks from real-world operating schedules, and found that charging requirements are met at common light-duty EV charging rates (=100 kW per vehicle). Finally, we applied depot charging load profiles to 36 distribution real-world substations, which showed that most can accommodate high levels of heavy-duty EV charging without upgrades.
47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
A Modified Sequence-to-point HVAC Load Disaggregation Algorithm
This paper presents a modified sequence-to-point (S2P) algorithm for disaggregating the heat, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load from the total building electricity consumption. The original S2P model is convolutional neural network (CNN) based, which uses load profiles as inputs. We propose three modifications. First, the input convolution layer is changed from 1D to 2D so that normalized temperature profiles are also used inputs to the S2P model. Second, a drop-out layer is added to improve adaptability and generalizability so that the model trained in one area can be transferred to other geographical areas without labelled HVAC data. Third, a fine-tuning process is proposed for areas with a small amount of labelled HVAC data so that the pre-trained S2P model can be fine-tuned to achieve higher disaggregation accuracy (i.e., better transferability) in other areas. The model is first trained and tested using smart meter and sub-metered HVAC data collected in Austin, Texas. Then, the trained model is tested on two other areas: Boulder, Colorado and San Diego, California. Simulation results show that the proposed modified S2P algorithm outperforms the original S2P model and the support-vector machine based approach in accuracy, adaptability, and transferability.
Ye, Kai↗