An integrated model of population genetics and community ecology
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Isaac Overcast↗
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Results for “Ecological modeling”
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Foundational Human-Autonomy Teaming Research and Development in Scalable Remotely Operated Advanced Air Mobility Operations: Research Model and Initial Work
To achieve the scalability envisioned for many Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) applications, uncrewed aerial system (UAS) concepts are being pursued with the goal of enabling fewer human operators to manage more increasingly autonomous vehicles. NASA’s Transformational Tools and Technologies – Revolutionary Aviation Mobility (T3-RAM) subproject has identified human-autonomy teaming (HAT) as a critical area of research required to support these operations. Under T3-RAM, the HAT Foundational Research Activity has been tasked with providing basic research to identify HAT and human-automation interaction (HAI) principles that can be used to achieve scalable multi-vehicle UAS operations. This paper first outlines a research model to produce ecologically relevant basic research, then contextualizes completed and planned research and development activities within this model. Proposed research threads are presented, along with their practical and theoretical implications.
Human-Autonomy Teaming↗
Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Land Cover Change and Elephant Wildlife Corridors in Southern Bhutan
The diverse landscapes of Bhutan host a rich biodiversity of animal and plant species. Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are a flagship keystone wildlife species whose conservation is essential for the functioning of Bhutan’s forest ecosystems. Despite this, increasing habitat loss and human-elephant conflict continue to be detrimental to the survival of Asian elephants. The lack of information on Bhutan’s elephants and land use and land cover (LULC) trends present major challenges for Bhutan in modeling locations with suitable habitat and biological corridors for elephants. The DEVELOP Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting II team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center partnered with the Bhutan Foundation, Bhutan Tiger Center, and Bhutan Ecological Society to help address this problem. The team mapped LULC in Bhutan for 2010 and 2015 by utilizing NASA Earth observations, including Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) to acquire information on historical LULC patterns and view apparent land cover change. The team used the Linkage Pathways Tool of the Linkage Mapper Toolbox in ArcMap to derive biological corridor maps from habitat suitability model outputs of the previous term and known locations of protected areas in Bhutan. The corridor maps were used to view and assess corridor suitability and connectivity between protected parks. Project results are being provided to partners to help make informed decisions on the placement and conservation of elephant movement corridors.
Thinley Yidzin Wangden↗
Evaluation of a ground based manned demonstration as a milestone in CELSS development
The requirements for a ground based manned controlled ecological life support system demonstration are summarized for the following: nutrition and food processing, food production, waste processing, systems engineering and modeling, and ecology-systems safety.
Source record↗
Advancing representations of equity and justice in climate mitigation futures
THIS PAPER WAS PRIMARILY COMPLETED PRIOR TO THE AUTHOR JOINING PNNL AND NO DOE FUNDING WAS USED FOR THIS PAPER. In this work, we review how equity and justice issues in global climate mitigation scenarios are addressed within Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and propose a new research agenda to strengthen their integration in model development and application. We begin by examining prominent concerns at the science-policy interface. We introduce a typology of equity and justice limitations in climate mitigation scenarios, distinguishing among structural, methodological, and epistemological biases that shape what integrated assessment models can reveal at policy-relevant scales. Reflecting on these concerns, we propose a research agenda that describes new avenues of work and draws together distinct emerging initiatives. This agenda is based on the feasibility and depth of required interventions, from incremental improvements to structural reforms and alternative participatory approaches. Drawing on reflexive insights from integrated assessment practitioners, it addresses the operational challenges of translating justice concepts into metrics, including risks of reductionism, tokenism, and narrow definitions. Underlying this research agenda is a recognition that modeling communities must engage more critically with implicit assumptions in model design and use that have equity and justice implications. Achieving equitable climate futures will require transformative actions that integrate diverse justice concerns, advance sustainable development goals, and confront systemic inequities across both human and ecological dimensions. Although models will never capture all these aspects, they can be significantly enhanced to support more informed discussion and practical application. Our contribution proposes a way forward to achieving this goal.
Pachauri, Shonali↗
An Ensemble Investigation of the Causes for Regional Air-Quality Model Critical Load Exceedances Prediction Variability in European and North American Domains Using Diagnostics From Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative
We summarize tentative findings from multi air quality model ensembles for the years 2009 and 2010 in Europe (EU), and 2010 and 2016 in North America (NA), under AQMEII-4. The model predictions of sulphur and nitrogen deposition were used to estimate exceedances of critical loads for acidification and eutrophication, to show the extent to which the ensemble members agree in the magnitude and the trend of ecologically meaningful impacts. Model exceedance variability was analyzed using AQMEII-4 diagnostics. Evaluation against concentration and wet deposition observations, coupled with these diagnostics, identified specific process representations as the causes for variability between model predictions and for reduced model performance. All models predicted reductions in ecosystem acidification impacts in North America between the years 2010 and 2016, in accord with SO2 emissions reduction legislation which started in 2010 (SO2 SIP) However, all models in EU and NA domains had net negative biases for wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen relative to observations. The wet S deposition average mean bias for the NA ensemble was -0.17 eq ha-1 d-1, and for the EU ensemble -1.15 eq ha-1 d-1. The NA daily wet deposition average mean bias for NH4+ was -0.37 eq ha-1d-1; EU -1.19 eq ha-1 d-1. The daily NA wet NO3- deposition average mean bias was -0.24 eq ha-1d-1; EU -0.69 eq ha-1 d-1. The members of the ensemble diverged (factor of 10) in their North American predictions for Ndep and consequently their eutrophication exceedances. The models with the highest eutrophication predictions also predicted the highest levels of gas-phase ammonia dry deposition (standard deviation of ammonia dry deposition flux across ensemble members was larger than the ensemble average). These models also had negative biases of predicted ammonia concentrations; average mean biases of -0.63 (satellite NH3) and -0.85 ppbv (surface NH3) compared to ensemble averages of -0.30 and -0.34 ppbv. Diagnostics showed that these differences resulted from the manner in which bidirectional ammonia fluxes were parameterized within these models. The second largest source of NA eutrophication prediction variability were models with positive biases in particulate ammonium and nitrate concentrations, and higher particle nitrogen deposition levels ( particle ammonium concentration bias +0.35 ug m-3; ensemble bias +0.15 ug m-3). We believe two factors may have led to these latter overestimates: higher levels of fine mode particle nitrate formation compared to other models (due to the use of an inorganic heterogeneous chemistry algorithm which did not take base cation chemistry into account), and updates to particle dry deposition velocities carried out in the absence of concurrent updates to wet scavenging algorithms. The relative importance of dry gas, dry particulate, and wet deposition towards total sulphur and nitrogen deposition totals differed between EU and North American domains, though all models had negative biases in wet deposition as noted above. Parallel and subsequent work suggests that multiphase hydrometeor scavenging may improve model wet deposition performance. An increased research focus is recommended for four model processes: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging, ammonia bidirectional fluxes, base cation chemistry and emissions, and particle dry deposition.
regional air-quality model↗
Translating macroecological models to predict microbial establishment probability in an agricultural inoculant introduction
The use of potentially beneficial microorganisms in agriculture (microbial inoculants) has rapidly accelerated in recent years. For microbial inoculants to be effective as agricultural tools, these organisms must be able to survive and persist in novel environments while not destabilizing the resident community or spilling over into adjacent natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of propagule pressure to species introductions, few tools exist in microbial ecology to predict the outcomes of agricultural microbial introductions. Here, we adapt a macroecological propagule pressure model to a microbial scale and present an experimental approach for testing the role of propagule pressure in microbial inoculant introductions. We experimentally determined the risk-release relationship for an IAA-expressing Pseudomonas simiae inoculant in a model monocot system. We then used this relationship to simulate establishment outcomes under a range of application frequencies (propagule number) and inoculant concentrations (propagule size). Our simulations show that repeated inoculant applications may increase establishment, even when increased inoculant concentration does not alter establishment probabilities. Applying ecological modeling approaches like those presented here to microbial inoculants may aid their sustainable use and provide a monitoring tool for microbial inoculants.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Critical Slowing Down in Time-to-Extinction: An Example of Critical Phenomena in Ecology
We study a model for two competing species that explicitly accounts for effects due to discreteness, stochasticity and spatial extension of populations. The two species are equally preferred by the environment and do better when surrounded by others of the same species. We observe that the final outcome depends on the initial densities (uniformly distributed in space) of the two species. The observed phase transition is a continuous one and key macroscopic quantities like the correlation length of clusters and the time-to-extinction diverge at a critical point. Away from the critical point, the dynamics can be described by a mean-field approximation. Close to the critical point, however, there is a crossover to power-law behavior because of the gross mismatch between the largest and smallest scales in the system. We have developed a theory based on surface effects, which is in good agreement with the observed behavior. The course-grained reaction-diffusion system obtained from the mean-field dynamics agrees well with the particle system.
Gandhi, Amar↗
Controlled Ecological Life Support System: Research and Development Guidelines
Results of a workshop designed to provide a base for initiating a program of research and development of controlled ecological life support systems (CELSS) are summarized. Included are an evaluation of a ground based manned demonstration as a milestone in CELSS development, and a discussion of development requirements for a successful ground based CELSS demonstration. Research recommendations are presented concerning the following topics: nutrition and food processing, food production, waste processing, systems engineering and modelling, and ecology-systems safety.
Mason, R. M.↗
A chromosome-level genome assembly of the varied leaved jewelflower, Streptanthus diversifolius, reveals a recent whole genome duplication
Abstract The Streptanthoid complex, a clade of primarily Streptanthus and Caulanthus species in the Thelypodieae (Brassicaceae) is an emerging model system for ecological and evolutionary studies. This complex spans the full range of the California Floristic Province including desert, foothill, and mountain environments. The ability of these related species to radiate into dramatically different environments makes them a desirable study subject for exploring how plant species expand their ranges and adapt to new environments over time. Ecological and evolutionary studies for this complex have revealed fascinating variation in serpentine soil adaptation, defense compounds, germination, flowering, and life history strategies. Until now a lack of publicly available genome assemblies has hindered the ability to relate these phenotypic observations to their underlying genetic and molecular mechanisms. To help remedy this situation, we present here a chromosome-level genome assembly and annotation of Streptanthus diversifolius, a member of the Streptanthoid Complex, developed using Illumina, Hi-C, and HiFi sequencing technologies. Construction of this assembly also provides further evidence to support the previously reported recent whole genome duplication unique to the Thelypodieae. This whole genome duplication may have provided individuals in the Streptanthoid Complex the genetic arsenal to rapidly radiate throughout the California Floristic Province and to occupy commonly inhospitable environments including serpentine soils.
Genetics & Heredity↗
Growth of bacteria in soils from Antarctic dry valleys
Growth of bacteria in soils from Antarctic dry valleys providing soil microbial ecology as Mars model
Cameron, R. E.↗
Microstrip Ring Resonator for Soil Moisture Measurements
Accurate determination of spatial soil moisture distribution and monitoring its temporal variation have a significant impact on the outcomes of hydrologic, ecologic, and climatic models. Development of a successful remote sensing instrument for soil moisture relies on the accurate knowledge of the soil dielectric constant (epsilon(sub soil)) to its moisture content. Two existing methods for measurement of dielectric constant of soil at low and high frequencies are, respectively, the time domain reflectometry and the reflection coefficient measurement using an open-ended coaxial probe. The major shortcoming of these methods is the lack of accurate determination of the imaginary part of epsilon(sub soil). In this paper a microstrip ring resonator is proposed for the accurate measurement of soil dielectric constant. In this technique the microstrip ring resonator is placed in contact with soil medium and the real and imaginary parts of epsilon(sub soil) are determined from the changes in the resonant frequency and the quality factor of the resonator respectively. The solution of the electromagnetic problem is obtained using a hybrid approach based on the method of moments solution of the quasi-static formulation in conjunction with experimental data obtained from reference dielectric samples. Also a simple inversion algorithm for epsilon(sub soil) = epsilon'(sub r) + j(epsilon"(sub r)) based on regression analysis is obtained. It is shown that the wide dynamic range of the measured quantities provides excellent accuracy in the dielectric constant measurement. A prototype microstrip ring resonator at L-band is designed and measurements of soil with different moisture contents are presented and compared with other approaches.
Sarabandi, Kamal↗
Space-based Remote Sensing: A Tool for Studying Bird Migration Across Multiple Scales
The study of bird migration on a global scale is one of the compelling and challenging problems of modern biology with major implications for human health and conservation biology. Migration and conservation efforts cross national boundaries and are subject to numerous international agreements and treaties. Space based technology offers new opportunities to shed understanding on the distribution and migration of organisms on the planet and their sensitivity to human disturbances and environmental changes. Our working hypothesis is that individual organism biophysical models of energy and water balance, driven by satellite measurements of spatio-temporal gradients in climate and habitat, will help us to explain the variability in avian species richness and distribution. Further, these models provide an ecological forecasting tool for science and application users to visualize the possible consequences of loss of wetlands, flooding, or other natural disasters such as hurricanes on avian biodiversity and bird migration.
Smith, James A.↗
Potential Scientific Output from the Visible Channels of EPIC Spectroradiometer as Part of the DSCOVR L1 Mission
In addition to 4 UV channels, the EPIC spectroradiometer will provide measurements at 6 visible (and near IR) channels (443,551,680,687.75, 764 and 779.9 nm) at roughly 10 km spatial resolution. The scattering angles are near backscattering and vary between 165 and 176 degree. Two pairs {680 and 687.75 nm} and {764 and 779.9 nm} represent 02 B- and A-bands (and their references) channels; they will be used for cloud height measurements over land and ocean. The B-band channel will contribute to the more absorbing A-band measurements over bright vegetation. A pair {680 and 779.9 nm} will be used for retrieving vegetation properties. Due to the special EPIC geometry, the illuminated part of the leaves will be always observed. As a result, in additional to the traditional Leaf Area Index (LAI), these observations for the first time will provide the sunlit fraction of LAI. Since the sunlit and shaded leaves exhibit different photosynthetic response to incident radiation, these measurements will help to improve global ecological and biogeochemistry models. Finally, a pair {443 and 551 nm} will be used for atmospheric correction. As a by-product of the atmospheric correction algorithm, we also expect to get aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and surface bidirectional reflection function (BRF). The presentation will briefly overview the proposed science algorithms.
Marshak, Alexander↗
Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting III: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Land Cover Change and Elephant Wildlife Corridors in Southern Bhutan
Habitat loss of the endangered Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) accompanied by rapid urbanization has contributed to the rising human-elephant conflict (HEC) crisis in southern Bhutan. This poses a serious threat to the survival of Asian elephants, a keystone wildlife species essential for maintaining Bhutan’s forest ecosystems and rich biodiversity. With expanding urban areas, HECs present challenges to conservation efforts in the region. The team partnered with the Bhutan Foundation, the Bhutan Tiger Center, and Bhutan Ecological Society to help mitigate this issue using remote sensing technology and NASA Earth observations. The team refined Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) maps for 2010–2019 generated in previous terms and elephant corridor maps to include information on human settlements using Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data. We generated LULC change maps and forecasted the LULC to 2030 using TerrSet Land Change Modeler, providing insights into future elephant habitat suitability in southern Bhutan. The results indicated that built-up areas increased approximately 688.9% from 2010 to 2019 and the forecasted 2030 LULC also predicted an increase in built-up areas compared to 2019. Suitable corridors in Gelephu intersect cultivated and built-up areas, indicating close proximity of elephants to humans and a need to research alternative corridor strategies. The end products from this project will aid partner organizations in decision-making processes in urban planning and future conservation strategies that include the refined placement of biological corridors to aid elephant movement and reduce the risk of HECs.
Thinley Yidzin Wangden↗
NASA’s NextGen Remote Sensing Instruments Have Arrived: Data Products For Studying Disease Vectors
Remote sensing can be used to measure, evaluate or estimate both the environment (state functions) and interfaces (processfunctions) defining vector habitats. The products of remote sensing can be integrated directly into the epidemiological equationsto significantly enhance our understanding of disease vector’s life cycles and habitats. The next generation of NASA’s remotesensing instruments which have become recently operational will provide a significant enhancement in our ability to studydisease vector’s life cycles and habitats. These instruments are on the International Space Station (ISS) and includeECOSTRESS, DESIS, and GEDI. ECOSTRESS is a 5 channel, thermal IR instrument with 70 m resolution and approximately1-5 day repeat cycle of day/night pairs. DESIS jointly developed by German Aerospace Center and Teledyne Brown Engineeringis a hyperspectral sensor system of 235 channels and 30 m resolution. DESIS data is only being acquired on demand. GEDI is ahigh-resolution laser ranger used for observing Earth’s forests and topography. NASA’s current ISS instrument configuration provides measurements of the critical environmental measures of environmentalstate functions important to vector & disease life cycles. Remote sensing data provide a spatial context and time series oflandscape scale process functions represented by land use mapping and measurements of ecological functions. Global publichealth is entering a new information age through the use of spatial models of disease vector/host ecologies driven by the use ofremotely sensed data to measure environmental and structural factors critical in determining disease vector habitats. In 2018, NASA initiated a new study for the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG) Designated Observable, identified in the 2018National Academies’ Decadal Survey entitled, “Thriving on Our Changing Planet: A Decadal Strategy for Earth Observationfrom Space.” (https://www.nap.edu/catalog/24938/thriving-on-our-changing-planet-a-decadal-strategy-for-earth) . The SBG isplanned to collect global remote sensing measurements using a hyperspectral spectrometer and multispectral thermal data. Thesedata sets will provide a significant enhancement in our ability to study disease vector’s life cycles and habitats globally. The 3sensors on the ISS provide precursor data to prepare the community for the application of future SBG data toward diseasestudies.
Disease Vectors↗
Reimagining Earth in the Earth System
Abstract Terrestrial, aquatic, and marine ecosystems regulate climate at local to global scales through exchanges of energy and matter with the atmosphere and assist with climate change mitigation through nature‐based climate solutions. Climate science is no longer a study of the physics of the atmosphere and oceans, but also the ecology of the biosphere. This is the promise of Earth system science: to transcend academic disciplines to enable study of the interacting physics, chemistry, and biology of the planet. However, long‐standing tension in protecting, restoring, and managing forest ecosystems to purposely improve climate evidences the difficulties of interdisciplinary science. For four centuries, forest management for climate betterment was argued, legislated, and ultimately dismissed, when nineteenth century atmospheric scientists narrowly defined climate science to the exclusion of ecology. Today's Earth system science, with its roots in global models of climate, unfolds in similar ways to the past. With Earth system models, geoscientists are again defining the ecology of the Earth system. Here we reframe Earth system science so that the biosphere and its ecology are equally integrated with the fluid Earth to enable Earth system prediction for planetary stewardship. Central to this is the need to overcome an intellectual heritage to the models that elevates geoscience and marginalizes ecology and local land knowledge. The call for kilometer‐scale atmospheric and ocean models, without concomitant scientific and computational investment in the land and biosphere, perpetuates the geophysical view of Earth and will not fully provide the comprehensive actionable information needed for a changing climate.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Southern Bhutan Ecological Forecasting II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Model Land Cover Change and Elephant Wildlife Corridors in Southern Bhutan
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Thinley Yidzin Wangden↗