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DOE OSTI2026

Development of an Unbiased Future Solar Dataset for Solar Resource Adequacy Research Over CONUS

A high-resolution, long-term solar dataset is essential for capturing the variability of solar energy resources and informing strategies to ensure grid reliability and resilience in systems with high levels of solar energy integration. This study focuses on generating unbiased, high-resolution projections of solar irradiance through a statistical downscaling framework, using Earth system model (ESM) simulations obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX). The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate statistical downscaling models. The newly developed dataset provides solar irradiance, surface air temperature, and surface wind speed at 4-km and hourly resolutions across the contiguous United States (CONUS), based on two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This study outlines key steps in developing the high-resolution future solar dataset, including (1) regridding ESM data to a common 20-km resolution grid, (2) correcting ESM biases using the NSRDB, and (3) applying temporal and spatial downscaling methods to generate high-resolution (4-km, hourly) solar projections. Preliminary results indicate that downscaled projections (4-km) captured reasonable spatial patterns when compared to observations across CONUS for four variables. On average across all pixels, 4-km daily-total GHI and DNI projections showed normalized bias (nBias) less than 1% and 6% for GHI and DNI against NSRDB, respectively (nBias less than 1% and 5% for daily-average surface air temperature and surface wind speed). In terms of long-term trend for GHI and DNI, there was no strong increasing or decreasing trend (when compared to surface air temperature), but it showed a very weak decreasing trend.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Freundlich isotherm equation best represents phosphate sorption across soil orders and land use types in tropical soils of Puerto Rico

Biomass production in the lowland wet tropical forest is greater than in any other biome, and it is typically limited by soil phosphorus (P) availability. However, the mechanisms involved in the P cycle remain poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Soil P sorption processes are key in the P cycle and for understanding the extent of P limitation for plant productivity. Currently, a few ESMs include isotherm equations to model these processes. Although the Langmuir equation is widely cited, other isotherm equations may better describe sorption in tropical soils. Here, we use a diverse range of soil samples from Puerto Rico to test the validity of the Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin equation. We found that across four soil orders (Inceptisols, Mollisols, Oxisols, Ultisols), and forested and cultivated land use types, the Freundlich equation best represented soil P sorption. Furthermore, the Langmuir and the Temkin equations poorly represent soil P adsorption, especially at low P concentrations. Specifically, the Langmuir equation underestimated soil P adsorption by 40% and the Temkin equation overestimated adsorption by 76%. We also found, as expected, that soil clay content and pH were the most important parameters explaining the variability of the Freundlich (K f ) constant. Greater clay content and lower pH, common in highly weathered Ultisols and Oxisols which are abundant in the tropics, led to greater K f values. Overall, our results suggest that a diversity of soils can prompt underestimation of P sorption when using the Langmuir isotherm, which leads to an overestimation of available P that can have repercussions on ESM predictions of the P cycle and tropical forest productivity.

Earth system models↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting metal-binding proteins and structures through integration of evolutionary-scale and physics-based modeling

Metals are essential elements in all living organisms, binding to approximately 50% of proteins. They serve to stabilize proteins, catalyze reactions, regulate activities, and fulfill various physiological and pathological functions. While there have been many advancements in determining the structures of protein-metal complexes, numerous metal-binding proteins still need to be identified through computational methods and validated through experiments. Here, to address this need, we have developed the ESMBind workflow, which combines evolutionary scale modeling (ESM) for metal-binding prediction and physics-based protein-metal modeling. Our approach utilizes the ESM-2 and ESM-IF models to predict metal-binding probability at the residue level. In addition, we have designed a metal-placement method and energy minimization technique to generate detailed 3D structures of protein-metal complexes. Our workflow outperforms other models in terms of residue and 3D-level predictions. To demonstrate its effectiveness, we applied the workflow to 142 uncharacterized fungal pathogen proteins and predicted metal-binding proteins involved in fungal infection and virulence.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Sea‐Level Rise on Coastal Groundwater Table Simulated by an Earth System Model With a Land‐Ocean Coupling Scheme

Abstract Sea‐level rise (SLR) poses a severe threat to the coastal environment through seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers. The rising groundwater table also exacerbates the risk of pluvial, fluvial, and groundwater flooding in coastal regions. However, current Earth system models (ESMs) commonly ignore the exchanges of water at the land‐ocean interface. To address this gap, we developed a novel land‐ocean hydrologic coupling scheme in a state‐of‐the‐science ESM, the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). The new scheme includes the lateral exchange between seawater and groundwater and the vertical infiltration of seawater driven by the SLR‐induced inundation. Simulations were performed with the updated E3SMv2 for the global land‐ocean interface to assess the impacts of SLR on coastal groundwater under a high CO 2 emission scenario. By the middle of this century, seawater infiltration on the inundated areas will be the dominant component in the land‐ocean coupling process, while the lateral subsurface flow exchange will be much smaller. The SLR‐induced seawater infiltration will raise the groundwater levels, enhance evapotranspiration, and increase runoff with distinct spatial patterns globally in the future. Although the coupling process is induced by SLR, we found topography and warming temperature have more control on the coupling impacts, probably due to the relatively modest magnitude of SLR during the selected future period. Overall, our study suggests significant groundwater and seawater exchange at the land‐ocean interface, which needs to be considered in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Inferring Plant Acclimation and Improving Model Generalizability With Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning of Photosynthesis

Net photosynthesis (A N ) is a key component of the global carbon cycle influencing climate feedback over decadal scales. Although plant acclimation to environmental changes can modify A N , traditional vegetation models in Earth system models (ESMs) often rely on plant functional type (PFT)-specific parameterizations or simplified acclimation assumptions limiting generalizability across time, space, and PFTs. In this study, we developed a differentiable photosynthesis model to learn the environmental dependencies of V c,max25 (maximum carboxylation rate at 25°C, representing photosynthetic capacity), as this genre of hybrid physics-informed machine learning can seamlessly train neural networks and process-based equations together. Compared to PFT-specific parameterization of V c,max25 , learning the environment dependencies of key photosynthetic parameters improved model spatiotemporal generalizability. Applying environmental acclimation to V c,max25 led to substantial variations in global mean A N indicating the need to address acclimation in ESMs. The model effectively captured multivariate observations (V c,max25 , A N , and stomatal conductance (g s )) simultaneously with multivariate constraints, improving generalization across space and PFTs. It also learned sensible acclimation relationships of V c,max25 to different environmental conditions. The model explained more than 54%, 57%, and 62% of the variance of A N , g s , and V c,max25 , respectively, presenting a first global-scale spatial test benchmark of A N and g s . These results highlight the potential for differentiable modeling to enhance process-based modules in ESMs and effectively leverage information from large, multivariate data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Vegetation responses to air dryness amplify future land surface warming

Temperature exerts a first-order control on vegetation photosynthesis and transpiration. Yet most studies investigating temperature impacts on plants rely on near-surface air temperature, rather than canopy temperature—the temperature plants actually experience. Because canopy temperature directly regulates ecosystem function, it provides a more accurate measure of vegetation–climate interactions. Combining Earth System Model (ESM) simulations and satellite observations in a dual emergent constraint, here we show that canopy temperature is projected to increase substantially more than air temperature (~0.11-degrees more or a 16% increase in their difference) over the 21st century. The ESM ensemble median fails to capture these stronger increases in the majority of vegetated regions. We find that the largest projected increases in the difference between canopy and air temperature are predicted to occur in regions where elevating moisture stress—particularly rising vapor pressure deficit—increasingly constrains vegetation growth and transpiration. This implies that future warming will impose stronger constraints on plant function than currently estimated. Relying on air temperature alone will therefore lead to systematic underestimation of temperature effects on photosynthesis, vegetation growth, and the land carbon sink. Accurate representation of canopy temperature in ESMs is thus essential to improve projections of ecosystem responses and feedbacks to climate change.

Green, Julia K↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physical inconsistencies in the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus in simple climate models

The Ocean Heat-Carbon Nexus, linking ocean heat and carbon uptake, is crucial for understanding climate responses to cumulative carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and to net zero CO 2 emissions. It results from a suite of processes involving the exchange of heat and carbon across the sea-air interface as well as their storage below the mixed layer and redistribution by the ocean large-scale circulation. The Ocean Heat and Carbon Nexus is assumed to be consistently represented across two modelling platforms used in the latest IPCC assessments: the Earth System Models (ESMs) and the Simple Climate Models (SCMs). However, our research shows significant deficiencies in state-of-the-art SCMs in replicating the ocean heat-carbon nexus of ESMs due to a crude treatment of the ocean thermal and carbon cycle coupling. With one SCM, we show that a more realistic heat-to-carbon uptake ratio exacerbates the projected warming by 0.1 °C in low overshoot scenarios and up to 0.2 °C in high overshoot scenarios. It is therefore critical to explore how SCMs’ physical inconsistencies, such as the representation of the ocean heat-carbon nexus, can affect future warming projections used in climate assessments, not just by SCMs in Working Group 3 but also by ESMs in Working Group 1 via SCM-driven emission-to-concentration translation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using feature importance as an exploratory data analysis tool on Earth system models

Abstract. Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used to generate predictions, but these models can also support the discovery of new science. Generating accurate predictions necessitates that a model captures the structure of the underlying data. If the structure is properly extracted, ML could be a useful exploratory and evidential tool. In this paper, we present a case study that demonstrates the use of ML for exploratory data analysis (EDA) in the climate space. We apply the ML explainability method of spatiotemporal zeroed feature importance (stZFI) to understand how climate-variable associations evolve over space and time. Our analyses focus on data from ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) which provide data on different climate states and conditions. We elect to work with ESM ensembles since they allow us to compare feature importance across alternative scenarios not available with observed data. The ensembles also account for natural variability so that we can distinguish between signal and noise due to natural climate variability when computing feature importance. The use of perturbed initial condition ensembles introduces variability mimicking the natural variability in the atmosphere; thus the signals emerging using feature importance (FI) can be evaluated against the natural variability in the climate system. For our analyses, we consider the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo, which was a large stratospheric aerosol injection. We explore the climate pathway associated with the eruption from aerosols to radiation to temperature at both the near-surface and stratospheric levels. In addition to applying the method to data generated from two different ESMs, we apply stZFI to reanalysis data to compare the associations identified by stZFI. We show how stZFI tracks the importance of aerosol optical depth over time on forecasting temperatures. This case study illustrates usefulness of an ML tool (stZFI) for EDA on a well-studied climate exemplar.

Ries, Daniel (ORCID:0000000250294647)↗

DOE OSTI2025

CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs. The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities. This input was then collated and translated into CMIP7 standard templates for inclusion in the broader data request, leading to 13 I&A data request opportunities, 60 variable groups and 539 unique variables sought by vulnerability, impacts, adaptation, and climate services user communities. Here, we describe these opportunities and variable groups, as well as new insights into how ESM groups can prioritize outputs that set off a chain of further analyses, ultimately informing decisions impacting society and natural systems. These include an emphasis on high-resolution outputs to allow further modeling of climate impacts at regional and local scales, improved representation of extreme weather events, enhanced accuracy of downscaling and bias-adjustment techniques, and support for more detailed assessments for decision-making in adaptation and mitigation strategies. There is also broad interest in more extensive provisioning of two-dimensional variables at the Earth's surface, prioritizing experiments that enhance our understanding of both the recent past and future scenarios, and providing outputs that allow further downscaling and bias adjustment. We emphasize that variable groups are the fundamental level at which to engage with the I&A data request, matching the scale of input and the way output provision enables specific I&A applications. Given resource constraints, we applaud CMIP7 efforts to foster strong engagement and communication between ESM groups and the I&A team to build consensus around prudent compromises in priority variables, temporal resolutions, simulation experiments, time subsets, and ensemble members.

Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating an Earth system model from a water manager perspective

Abstract. The large spatial scale of global Earth system models (ESMs) is often cited as an obstacle to using the output by water resource managers in localized decisions. Recent advances in computing have improved the fidelity of hydrological responses in ESMs through increased connectivity between model components. However, the models are seldom evaluated for their ability to reproduce metrics that are important for and resonate with practitioners or that allow practitioners to situate higher-resolution model outputs within a cascade of uncertainty stemming from different models and scenarios. We draw on the combined experience of the author team and water manager workshop participants to identify salient water management metrics and evaluate whether they are credibly reproduced over the conterminous USA by the Community Earth System Model v2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble. We find that, while the exact values may not match the observations, aspects such as interannual variability can be reproduced by CESM2 for the mean wet day precipitation and length of dry spells. CESM2 also captures the proportion of total annual precipitation that derives from the heaviest rain days in watersheds that are not snow-dominated. Aggregating the 7 d mean daily runoff to two-digit Hydrological Unit Code (HUC2) watersheds also shows that rain-dominated regions capture the timing and interannual variability of annual maximum and minimum flows. We conclude that there is potential for far greater use of large-ensemble ESMs, such as CESM2, in long-range water management decisions to supplement high-resolution regional projections.

Tye, Mari R. (ORCID:0000000324911020)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate Model Output Rewriter

The Climate Model Output Rewriter (CMOR) software was first developed by LLNL’s PCMDI program in early 2000s and was formally released with v1.0 (July 2006), v2.0 (January 2011), and v3.1(June 2016). CMOR is used to produce Climate and Forecast Convention (http://cfconventions.org/) CF-compliant netCDF files, in the standard format required to satisfy the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The software has been used across multiple phases of the Earth System Modeling (ESM) project CMIP (CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6, and planned use in CMIP7) along with numerous parallel projects focused on preparation observations for use in model evaluation (obs4MIPs) and forcing datasets (input4MIPs) to guide ESM simulations to meet strict experimental protocols. More information can be obtained from the CMOR website and code repositories: https://cmor.llnl.gov/; https://github.com/pcmdi/cmor; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmor3_documentation The ESM variable definitions used as input for CMOR can also be viewed in code repositories: https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip3-cmor-tables/; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip5-cmor-tables/; https://github.com/PCMDI/cmip6-cmor-tables/

Mauzey, ChristopherF↗

NASA NTRS2000

Scheduling and Estimating the Cost of Crew Time

In a previous paper, Theory and Application of the Equivalent System Mass Metric, Julie Levri, David Vaccari, and Alan Drysdale developed a method for computing the Equivalent System Mass (ESM) of crew time. ESM is an analog of cost. The suggested approach has been applied but seems to impose too high a cost for small additional requirements for crew time. The proposed method is based on the minimum average cost of crew time. In this work, the scheduling of crew time is examined in more detail, using suggested crew time allocations and daily work schedules. Crew tasks are typically assigned using priorities, which can also be used to construct a crew time demand curve mapping the value or cost per hour versus the total number of hours worked. The cost of additional crew time can be estimated by considering the intersection and shapes of the demand and supply curves. If e assume a mathematical form for the demand curve, a revised method can be developed for computing the cost or ESM of crew time. This method indicates a low cost per hour for small additional requirements for crew time and an increasing cost per hour for larger requirements.

Jones, Harry↗

NASA NTRS2003

Equivalent Mass versus Life Cycle Cost for Life Support Technology Selection

The decision to develop a particular life support technology or to select it for flight usually depends on the cost to develop and fly it. Other criteria such as performance, safety, reliability, crew time, and technical and schedule risk are considered, but cost is always an important factor. Because launch cost would account for much of the cost of a future planetary mission, and because launch cost is directly proportional to the mass launched, equivalent mass has been used instead of cost to select advanced life support technology. The equivalent mass of a life support system includes the estimated mass of the hardware and of the spacecraft pressurized volume, power supply, and cooling system that the hardware requires. The equivalent mass of a system is defined as the total payload launch mass needed to provide and support the system. An extension of equivalent mass, Equivalent System Mass (ESM), has been established for use in the Advanced Life Support project. ESM adds a mass-equivalent of crew time and possibly other cost factors to equivalent mass. Traditional equivalent mass is strictly based on flown mass and reflects only the launch cost. ESM includes other important cost factors, but it complicates the simple flown mass definition of equivalent mass by adding a non-physical mass penalty for crew time that may exceed the actual flown mass. Equivalent mass is used only in life support analysis. Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is much more commonly used. LCC includes DDT&E, launch, and operations costs. For Earth orbit rather than planetary missions, the launch cost is less than the cost of Design, Development, Test, and Evaluation (DDTBE). LCC is a more inclusive cost estimator than equivalent mass. The relative costs of development, launch, and operations vary depending on the mission destination and duration. Since DDTBE or operations may cost more than launch, LCC gives a more accurate relative cost ranking than equivalent mass. To select the lowest cost technology for a particular application we should use LCC rather than equivalent mass.

Jones, Harry↗

NASA NTRS2014

Implementation of the Orbital Maneuvering Systems Engine and Thrust Vector Control for the European Service Module

The European Space Agency (ESA) has entered into a partnership with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to develop and provide the Service Module (SM) for the Orion Multipurpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program. The European Service Module (ESM) will provide main engine thrust by utilizing the Space Shuttle Program Orbital Maneuvering System Engine (OMS-E). Thrust Vector Control (TVC) of the OMS-E will be provided by the Orbital Maneuvering System (OMS) TVC, also used during the Space Shuttle Program. NASA will be providing the OMS-E and OMS TVC to ESA as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) to integrate into the ESM. This presentation will describe the OMS-E and OMS TVC and discuss the implementation of the hardware for the ESM.

Orbital Maneuvering System↗

NASA NTRS2015

Electrical Pressurization Concept for the Orion MPCV European Service Module Propulsion System

The paper presents the design of the pressurization system of the European Service Module (ESM) of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). Being part of the propulsion subsystem, an electrical pressurization concept is implemented to condition propellants according to the engine needs via a bang-bang regulation system. Separate pressurization for the oxidizer and the fuel tank permits mixture ratio adjustments and prevents vapor mixing of the two hypergolic propellants during nominal operation. In case of loss of pressurization capability of a single side, the system can be converted into a common pressurization system. The regulation concept is based on evaluation of a set of tank pressure sensors and according activation of regulation valves, based on a single-failure tolerant weighting of three pressure signals. While regulation is performed on ESM level, commanding of regulation parameters as well as failure detection, isolation and recovery is performed from within the Crew Module, developed by Lockheed Martin Space System Company. The overall design and development maturity presented is post Preliminary Design Review (PDR) and reflects the current status of the MPCV ESM pressurization system.

Helium↗

NASA NTRS2017

Examination of the Structural Response of the Orion European Service Module to Reverberant and Direct Field Acoustic Testing

The NASA Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV), comprised of the Service Module, the Crew Module, and the Launch Abort System, is the next generation human spacecraft designed and built for deep space exploration. Orion will launch on NASAs new heavy-lift rocket, the Space Launch System. The European Space Agency (ESA) is responsible for providing the propulsion sub-assembly of the Service Module to NASA, called the European Service Module (ESM). The ESM is being designed and built by Airbus Safran Launchers for ESA. Traditionally, NASA has utilized reverberant acoustic testing for qualification of spaceflight hardware. The ESM Structural Test Article (E-STA) was tested at the NASA Plum Brook Stations (PBS) Reverberant Acoustic Test Facility in April-May 2016. However, Orion is evaluating an alternative acoustic test method, using direct field acoustic excitation, for the MPCVs Service Module and Crew Module. Lockheed Martin is responsible for the Orion proof-of-concept direct field acoustic test program. The E-STA was exposed to direct field acoustic testing at NASA PBS in February 2017. This paper compares the dynamic response of the E-STA structure and its components to both the reverberant and direct field acoustic test excitations. Advantages and disadvantages of direct field acoustic test excitation method are discussed.

Acoustics↗

NASA NTRS2017

Examination of the Structural Response of the Orion European Service Module to Reverberant and Direct Field Acoustic Testing

Acoustics↗