Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “EGS fracture model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

106 records · Page 6

Analysis of Hydraulic Fracturing on the 4100 Level at the Sanford Underground Research Facility

A series of hydrofractures were performed on the 4100 ft. level of the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) to quantify the minimum principal stress and stress orientation. The motivation for this work was to determine the suitability of the site as a second testbed for the EGS Collab project and to inform the testbed design. EGS Collab is a meso-scale project where experiments are being performed to increase permeability in low-permeability rock and improve our understanding of appropriate techniques and models required for developing enhanced geothermal systems. In order to design the second testbed, a ~50 m vertical HQ (96 mm) pilot borehole was drilled in June, 2019, to perform a series of mini-frac tests to determine rock stress state. Utilizing an elastic model based on the ISIP (Instantaneous Shut In Pressure), testing indicates that the minimum principal stress is 20.4 MPa oriented NNE (24°) and plunges at an angle of approximately 28°.

Ingraham, Mathew↗

Machine Learning‐Assisted Microearthquake Location Workflow for Monitoring the Newberry Enhanced Geothermal System

Abstract Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) offer a sustainable energy source but face challenges in accurately locating microearthquakes induced during reservoir stimulation. Locating these microearthquakes provides reliable feedback on the stimulation progress. Current deep learning methods for locating earthquakes require extensive data sets for training, which is problematic as detected microearthquakes are often limited. To address the scarcity of training data, we propose a practical workflow using probabilistic multilayer perceptron (PMLP) which predicts microearthquake locations from cross‐correlation time lags in waveforms. Utilizing a 3D velocity model of Newberry site derived from ambient noise interferometry, we generate numerous synthetic microearthquakes and 3D acoustic waveforms for PMLP training. Accurate synthetic tests prompt us to apply the trained network to the 2012 and 2014 stimulation field waveforms. To enhance the accuracy of source localization, we carefully handpick the P‐arrival times. Predictions on the 2012 stimulation data set show major microseismic activity at depths of 0.5–1.2 km, correlating with a known casing leakage scenario. In the 2014 data set, the majority of predictions concentrate at 2.0–2.9 km depths, consistent with results obtained from conventional physics‐based inversion, and align with the presence of natural fractures from 2.0 to 2.7 km. We validate our findings by comparing the synthetic and field picks, demonstrating a satisfactory match for the first arrivals. By combining the benefits of quick inference speeds and accurate location predictions, we demonstrate the feasibility of using realistic synthetic data set to locate microseismicity for EGS monitoring.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Well-Controlled Hydro-thermo-chemical Stimulation of a Coso Geothermal Well to Enhance Productivity

The goal of this project was to demonstrate controlled fracturing and permeability increase to enhance resource production and power generation at Coso. It was planned to stimulate at least two intervals in the Well 73-18RD with zonal isolation using advanced high-temperature packer technology. The anticipation was that a hydraulic fracture would form in one zone and in the second zone natural fractures would reopen, shear and extend, thereby increasing fluid communication in the field. In both cases, the intent was to carefully design the stimulation to take advantage of the relative roles of hydraulic pressure, thermal stress and chemical (“hydro-thermo-chemical”) dissolution. The project had planned to use the Welltec Annular Barrier (WAB) system developed as part of another DOE-funded project which was on schedule to be ready for field deployment. If successful, the Coso Operating Company would incorporate this approach into their ongoing well maintenance in other wells increasing the total MWs produced. The project had multiple tasks and the objective of Task 1 was to develop a workover plan, to build a geologic model, to design a stimulation program, and to work with the operating and services companies to develop a detailed budget and obtain the necessary permits and sundry notices. In Phase 2 the workover plan would be implemented, the designed stimulation would be carried out, and subsequently the well would logged and tested to measure the impact of stimulation. Per sponsor request, a Pre-Task 1 activity with a Go/No Go decision point was scheduled in Task 1.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Utah FORGE: Optimization of a Plug-and-Perf Stimulation (Fervo Energy)

Information around the plug-and-perf treatment design at Utah FORGE by Fervo Energy. Objective and Purpose: - Develop a multistage hydraulic stimulation approach designed specifically to target the top three factors that control the technical and commercial viability of an EGS system: i) Achieving sufficient injectivity to support high cross-well flow rates ii) Distributing flow evenly across the wellbore and reservoir to maximize heat mining efficiency, ensure sustained heat transfer, and mitigate thermal breakthrough iii) Overcoming the effects of stress heterogeneity, stress shadowing, and variations in natural fracture properties during the stimulation treatment, leading to a more predictable stimulated reservoir volume and offset well placement - The following activities will be performed: i) Design, plan, and execute a multistage plug-and-perf stimulation treatment at a Fervo site with data acquisition and well testing activities aimed at addressing key technical aspects of the issues above ii) Perform data processing and interpretation of field results to translate the results form the Fervo site to a site-specific design at the Utah FORGE site iii) Design, plan, and execute a multistage plug-and-perf stimulation treatment design at the Utah FORGE site Methods and Approach: - Design a detailed data acquisition plan to maximize learning around: i) DFIT testing ii) Petrophysical logging, image logging iii) Permanent DAS/DTS fiber optic monitoring iv) Deep borehole microseismic monitoring v) Shallow borehole induced seismicity monitoring vi) Injection/production testing (RTA analysis, tracer testing) vii) Integrated numerical modeling and production forecasting

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Utah FORGE: Phase 3 Magnetotelluric (MT) Data

New high-quality tensor MT data at 122 sites, including the vertical magnetic field and utilizing ultra-remote referencing, have been acquired over the Utah FORGE project area. The results will be used to delineate the densities of faults and fractures in crystalline basement rocks, to define the heat sources, and to derive baseline 3D resistivity structure for later MT monitoring of temporal changes in resistivity structure following well stimulation in the EGS reservoir. There are three files here related to Utah FORGE magnetotelluric (MT) data acquisition and processing. The FORGE MT EDIs zip file contains the observed MT responses in industry-standard EDI format. For each site, there is an EDI response file that utilized a local independent reference for noise cancellation, and a file that utilized a distant reference cancelling noise associated with the DC transmission line of the Delta IPP passing down the west side of Milford Valley. These two site files could be merged as appropriate. The FORGE Model Cell Center file contains the model volume of the 3D Forge MT inversion for characterizing the resistivity structure in the project area. It was derived using finite element inversion methodology described in Wannamaker et al, in the attached FORGE Phase3 Geophysics paper, from the MT observation EDI files. It is ASCII format (.dat) and entries are defined at top of the file in a simple x-y-z-Rho listing in UTM coordinates. The element layers drape the topography so the Rho value layers are not purely horizontal slices. This greatly simplifies the listing.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior (Final Technical Report)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) produce clean energy by circulating fluid through hot rock deep underground and bringing that heat to the surface to generate electricity. For this process to work reliably, fluids must be able to move efficiently through networks of natural or engineered fractures in the rock. Enhancing and maintaining subsurface permeability over time is essential for sustainable energy production. However, fluid injection changes the underground temperature, pressure, rock stress, and chemistry, which can alter permeability and sometimes trigger earthquakes. Predicting these interconnected processes remains a key challenge. To address this, we combined high-temperature laboratory experiments with high-fidelity simulations to better understand how fractures in geothermal reservoirs evolve over time. Our experiments measured how fractures respond to stress, slip, slip rate, and chemical reactions under geothermal conditions. These data were integrated into coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical and earthquake (THMC+E) models tailored to the Utah FORGE site. The validated modeling framework improves predictions of reservoir performance and seismic response and helps guide operational decisions. This work reduces technical risk and strengthens the scientific foundation needed to make geothermal energy a reliable and scalable clean energy resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

A reactive tracer method for predicting EGS reservoir geometry and thermal lifetime: development and field validation

The project summarized here (DOE Award No. DE-EE0006764) was intended to develop a methodology for predicting advective heat transfer in fracture-dominated crystalline rock. Our goal was to determine if a combination of inert and reactive tracers could adequately constrain the effective heat transfer surface area between an injection-production well pair. Our approach consisted of: 1. developing a novel computational framework; 2. Performing heat and tracer experiments at meso-scale; and 3. Comparing predictions of advective heat transfer to the “true” thermal breakthrough measured at the Altona site. Below is a summary of project activities/findings, a summary of project tasks, and a conclusion

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Complementary Subsurface Characterization Methods to Develop a Geologic Model for the EGS Collab Experiment, Sanford Underground Research Facility

The EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) Collab project was performed within the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) with a goal of understanding processes and evaluation of models related to hydraulic stimulation of rock at depth. The present work deals with the development of Testbed 2 where experiments were conducted at a depth of 1.25 km and were located within a well-characterized testbed in a metamorphic, amphibolite host rock. A total of eleven boreholes varying in length between 10.6 m and 81.2 m were continuously cored to develop the testbed. In addition to the continuous coring of the amphibolite host rock, geophysical instrumentation supporting electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), microearthquake (MEQ) detection, and optical fiber providing distributed temperature sensing (DTS) and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) were installed in the monitoring boreholes, all of which produced a comprehensive complementary suite of characterization and monitoring technologies. Pre-stimulation characterization of the groundwater conditions identified only two hydraulically significant fractures, neither of which transects the central portion of the testbed. Flow and pressure monitoring indicated low preexisting pore pressure conditions likely affected by the mine openings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Hawaii Play Fairway Analysis: Lanai Resistivity and Density 3D Inversion Models

To prepare for its third phase, the Hawaii Play Fairway project conducted groundwater sampling and analyses in ten locations in the Hawaiian islands, magnetotelluric (MT) and gravity surveys, as well as calculations of 3D subsurface stress due to the weight of the rock underlying the topography of the volcano. The subsurface stresses were used to evaluate the potential for fracture-induced permeability. Inversions of the MT and gravity data produce 3D models of resistivity and density, respectively, on Lanai, across Haleakala's SW rift (Maui), and surrounding Mauna Kea (Hawaii Island). The project developed and applied a new method for incorporating depth information about resistivity, density, and potential for fracture-induced permeability into the statistical method for computing resource probability in these three focus areas. The project then incorporated the new groundwater results with the new geophysical results and the calculations of potential for fracture-induced permeability to produce updated maps of resource probability and confidence. These results were used to identify target sites for exploratory drilling. Spreadsheet information: Each sheet contains data for a particular depth in kilometers. Positive depths are above sea level, and negative below. For more information, go to the Hawaii Groundwater and Geothermal Resources Center website linked in the resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

High Temperature, High Pressure Stability of Aqueous Foams for Potential Application in Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are typically constructed by injecting high-pressure water into deep hot dry rocks (HDR) under carefully controlled conditions to create new or re-open existing fractures, which usually uses an immense quantity of water. In lieu, a more sustainable technique is to utilize aqueous foams as fracturing fluid to reduce water consumption and waste-water treatments of conventional hydraulic fracturing. Although foam-based fracturing has shown promising results in oil and gas industries, its feasibility is not demonstrated in EGS conditions that usually involve high temperature and high pressures. One potential barrier of utilizing foams in EGS applications is that foams are thermodynamically unstable and will become more unstable with increasing temperature due to liquid drainage, bubble coarsening, and coalescence. This work focuses on evaluation of the stability of selected aqueous foams under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions. Specifically, foams generated with surfactant alfa olefin sulfonate (AOS) were studied at temperature up to 200oC, while the pressure ranged between 100 psi and 1000 psi. The effect of additional stabilizing agents was also examined, including guar gum, bentonite clay, borate salt crosslinker, silicon dioxide nanoparticles (SiO2), and graphene oxide (GO) dispersion. Results showed that the stabilizing agents can enhance the foam thermal stability. Foams made with AOS and the borate salt crosslinker exhibited the longest half-life of 20 min at 200°C when the pressure was at 1000 psi. Data fitting showed that foam stability decreased exponentially as temperature increased. On the other hand, pressure increased the foam half-life which followed a power model. This study indicates that it may be possible to obtain highly stable foams at high-temperature and high-pressure conditions with appropriate stabilizing agents.

Thakore, Viren↗

Wellbore Fracture Imaging Using Inflow Detection Measurements

One of the most striking measurements taken during DOE’s EGS Collab project at the 4850-foot depth location was the so-called ‘sewer cam’, which enabled direct visualization of the flow of water into the production well through fractures during the stimulation. The ability to see directly which fractures were flowing and (roughly) how much was a breakthrough in understanding the topology of the created fracture network. Achieving this kind of fracture flow imaging at FORGE would be more challenging because of the 225°C temperature, but equally or even more valuable if it could be achieved. In 2017, a joint project between Sandia and Stanford developed a downhole tool concept to measure the enthalpy of multiphase fluid entering a geothermal well from individual fractures (Gao et al., 2017). For the FORGE project, measuring enthalpy is of less interest because the fluid is expected to be single-phase liquid water. However, the foundation of the device was the measurement of chloride ion concentration, which could form the basis for a direct measurement of inflow from fractures. During the 2017 project, this novel chloride sensing system was implemented into a laboratory test instrument, and we confirmed the capability of the system to measure the ion concentration of fluid entering a model wellbore through a small entry port. The wellbore was a 6-inch diameter model well, and the port was approximately 0.08 inch (2mm) in diameter. The device could measure the chloride concentration accurately even when the well was flowing in a bubbly flow. Given its accuracy, the tool should be able to identify locations of water entering the wellbore even if the ion concentration differs only slightly from that of the water in the well. It is likely that different fractures may flow slightly different chloride concentrations, which would make it feasible to detect individual fractures as well as to estimate the volume of their flow. Ultimately, we could also recognize different fractures flowing back significantly different ion concentrations after fracturing in the FORGE wells. This could be realized by adding different ions in the fracturing fluids in different fractures created at different stages of stimulation (and modifying the tool to include different ion specificity). Sandia’s tool was shown during the study to have the capability to withstand the 225°C temperature, and the electrochemical sensing elements were tested in the laboratory to 225°C at 1500 psia for 24 hours. An early implementation of the fully integrated downhole electrochemical tool, including high-temperature electronics, robust housing, and wireline truck interface, had previously been constructed and tested successfully at Sandia; thus, hardware development tasks focused on advancing the technology readiness level (TRL) of this promising technology for FORGE deployment, rather than on developing a new scientific basis for its operation. The data collection electronics in this tool allowed for several other sensors (pressure, temperature, flow spinner) to be implemented in parallel as well. The research was a new collaboration between Stanford and Sandia to modify and refine the tool for FORGE deployment, to make the downhole measurements, and to characterize the evolving fractures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Interpretation of hydrothermal conditions, production-injection induced effects, and evidence for enhanced geothermal system-type heat exchange in response to >30 years of production at Roosevelt Hot Springs, Utah, USA

The Roosevelt Hot Springs hydrothermal system is located at the base of the Mineral Mountains in southwestern Utah on the eastern side of the Basin and Range. Hydrothermal activity is related to relatively recent bimodal magmatism, and the system is hosted in coarsely crystalline rock made of Oligocene–Miocene granitoids and Precambrian gneiss. The hydrothermal plume covers ~5 km 2 , with a maximum temperature of 268 °C at ~750 m depth, and a vertically extensive fault-fracture mesh east of the Opal Mound fault controls the upflow of hydrothermal fluids. Power generation (currently 38 MWe gross) began in 1984, and up through 2016, four wells were used for fluid production, and three wells were used for edge-field injection. Chemical analyses of produced fluids show that modern reservoir fluid compositions are similar to but more concentrated than those at the start of production, having near-neutral pH, total dissolved solids of 7000–10,000 mg/kg, and ionic ratios of Cl/HCO 3 ~50–100, Cl/SO4 ~50–100, and Na/K ~4–5. Chemical geothermometers indicate equilibration temperatures that mainly range between 240° and 300 °C. Early production induced a steep drop in pressure (~3.0–3.5 MPa), which was accompanied by a 250–300 m lowering of piezometric levels in wells and development of a shallow steam zone across the system. Hydrothermal fluid compositions evolved continuously in response to production-related steam-loss and injection breakthrough, which is reflected by gradual increases in chloride of up to 35% and stable isotope ratios of up to ~2‰δ 18 O and ~10‰δD. Simple mixing model calculations suggest that there has been a significant amount, ~10–20 MW th , of sustained multi-decadal heat mining and enhanced geothermal system (EGS)–type heat transfer by the injectate as it returns to the production zone. Overall, the two factors that have sustained long-term power production (currently 38 MWe gross) are the increased upflow of deep chloride water and, to a lesser extent, the mining of heat at <1 km depth.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Complementary Subsurface Characterization Methods to Develop a Geologic Model for the EGS Collab Experiment, Sanford Underground Research Facility

The EGS (Enhanced Geothermal Systems) Collab project was performed within the Sanford Underground Research Facility (SURF) with a goal of understanding processes and evaluation of models related to hydraulic simulation of rock at depth. The present work deals with the development of Testbed 2 where experiments were conducted at a depth of 1.25 km and were located within a well-characterized testbed in a metamorphic, amphibolite host rock. A total of eleven boreholes varying in length between 10.6 m and 81.2 m were continuously cored to develop the testbed. In addition to the continuous coring of the amphibolite host rock, geophysical instrumentation supporing electrical resisivity tomography (ERT), microearthquake (MEQ) detection, and optical fiber providing distributed temperature sensing (DTS) and distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) were installed in the monitoring boreholes, all of which produced a comprehensive complementary suite of characterization and monitoring technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Quarterly Research Performance Progress Report (Q8)

As part of Task 1, we have started by testing our modeling capabilities by reproducing isothermal DFIT simulations presented in the literature. Once satisfied with the results we have started by targeting the modeling of the DFITs at conducted at well 58-32. We have a identified a specific test (cycle 4 in zone 2) as the most interesting to be model with GEOS hydraulic fracturing module. Thus, we have first produced results with an isothermal model and adjusted model parameters to get a satisfying match with field pressure data. The, we have added thermal effects and compared the modeling results with and without thermal effects to estimate how thermal effects may influence test interpretation. Models seem to suggest that, for small volumes of fluid, thermal effects are moderate. In Task 2, we have adapted GEOS phase-field formulation to be able to simulate near-wellbore hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation. We have devised a novel formulation that, compared to other existing ones, incorporates rock strengths. We have submitted a journal publication about our work. We are currently employing this phase-field formulation to model the experiments taking place at U Pitt and help us understand the effect of various parameters. In Task 3, we have built a model of the region surround well 16A and have started modeling stage 3 stimulation because of its simpler planar geometry. After calibrating simulation parameters using known analytical solutions, we have simulated the stage 3 stimulation using our isothermal hydraulic fracturing module, varying the permeability field, the stress conditions including different physics to get a better understanding of the numerical challenges and of the effects of varying these parameters on the simulation results. In Task 4 laboratory experimentation, a set of specialized drilling and injection tools has been customized and constructed to accommodate an inclined well with an orientation of up to 30 degrees relative to material anisotropy or principal stress axes. These inclined samples have also undergone thermal stress and hydraulic fracturing at a temperature of 190 degrees Celsius. Furthermore, both vertical and deviated sampling testing setups enable an extended analysis of post-peak pressure behaviors, facilitating post-test pressure analyses such as the G-function, step rate, and fracture reopening measurements. Thus, the key components of in-situ stress estimation can be extracted and validated through our experiment, providing a solid foundation for validating existing in-situ stress estimation theories or proposing new ones. Simultaneously, we are integrating computer vision techniques with traditional experimental fracture observation methods such as multi-overcore/slicing and water-penetration fracture observation. This combination will prove beneficial in populating the hydraulic fracture patterns database, generated under challenging EGS conditions. This approach aims to deepen our understanding of the complexities in EGS reservoirs and pave the way for future data-driven investigations. Additionally, PITT has also equipped the ELE International compression machine, which is now prepared for conducting indirect tensile and fracture toughness tests. These tests will aid in characterizing how rock fabrics influence the resulting fracture patterns. Additionally, we have completed the required personnel training and gained access to Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy (EDS) for conducting more detailed characterization and analysis of rock fabrics, as well as the examination of thermal and hydraulically induced fracture patterns. Thus, the PITT team has effectively demonstrated the capabilities of our experimental apparatuses in exploring the thermal effects, well deviation angles, material anisotropy, and operational choices (such as circulation rate, injection fluid viscosity, and injection rate) and their impact on pressure responses and fracture trajectories under the Utah FORGE conditions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Thermal Stimulation and Injectivity Testing at Raft River, ID EGS Site

The Raft River geothermal field is the site of an innovative Department of Energy Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project to determine the viability of using combined thermal and hydraulic stimulation techniques to improve energy production. Well RRG-9 is currently undergoing a stimulation program using injectate from the US Geothermal Raft River Power Plant and cold water from a cooling tower make-up water well. The stimulation began on 13 June 2013 with injection from the power plant at a temperature of about 39 °C and a pressure of 275 psig. Next, two positive displacement plunger type pumps were used to increase the injection pressure and flow rate for about one month. The highest rate achieved was 258 gpm at a pressure of 741 psig. During this time, fluid from the cooler water well was injected for about 2 weeks at various pressures. Then, the pumps were removed and plant injection resumed on 25 September. Plant injection will continue until the spring of 2014, when a high pressure hydraulic stimulation will be conducted. A series of seismic monitoring stations deployed around the well are providing data on seismic events occurring at the site. Over the past year, 51 microseismic events have been recorded, all less than Magnitude 1. During injection, several diagnostic tests were conducted to gain a better understanding of the well and reservoir. A step-rate test was performed on 22 August to measure the in-situ stress and aid in modeling in-situ fractures. A tracer was injected into the well on 9 September. No tracer was detected in adjacent production wells after several months. A second borehole televiewer survey was conducted for comparison to pre-stimulation images. Here, a third borehole televiewer survey is planned after the high pressure stimulation. Injection test data is evaluated in real time. A modified Hall plot analysis indicates the effective permeability is increasing. The injectivity index supports the results of the modified Hall plot analysis. As the thermal stimulation has continued, the injectivity index has consistently followed an upward trend from 0.1 gpm/psi to 0.53 gpm/psi.

enhanced geothermal systems↗

Predicting Water Cycle Characteristics from Percolation Theory and Observational Data

The fate of water and water-soluble toxic wastes in the subsurface is of high importance for many scientific and practical applications. Although solute transport is proportional to water flow rates, theoretical and experimental studies show that heavy-tailed (power-law) solute transport distribution can cause chemical transport retardation, prolonging clean-up time-scales greatly. However, no consensus exists as to the physical basis of such transport laws. In percolation theory, the scaling behavior of such transport rarely relates to specific medium characteristics, but strongly to the dimensionality of the connectivity of the flow paths (for example, two- or three-dimensional, as in fractured-porous media or heterogeneous sediments), as well as to the saturation characteristics (i.e., wetting, drying, and entrapped air). In accordance with the proposed relevance of percolation models of solute transport to environmental clean-up, these predictions also prove relevant to transport-limited chemical weathering and soil formation, where the heavy-tailed distributions slow chemical weathering over time. The predictions of percolation theory have been tested in laboratory and field experiments on reactive solute transport, chemical weathering, and soil formation and found accurate. Recently, this theoretical framework has also been applied to the water partitioning at the Earth’s surface between evapotranspiration, ET, and run-off, Q, known as the water balance. A well-known phenomenological model by Budyko addressed the relationship between the ratio of the actual evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation, ET/P, versus the aridity index, ET 0 /P, with P being the precipitation and ET 0 being the potential evapotranspiration. Existing work was able to predict the global fractions of P represented by Q and ET through an optimization of plant productivity, in which downward water fluxes affect soil depth, and upward fluxes plant growth. In the present work, based likewise on the concepts of percolation theory, we extend Budyko’s model, and address the partitioning of run-off Q into its surface and subsurface components, as well as the contribution of interception to ET. Using various published data sources on the magnitudes of interception and information regarding the partitioning of Q, we address the variability in ET resulting from these processes. The global success of this prediction demonstrated here provides additional support for the universal applicability of percolation theory for solute transport as well as guidance in predicting the component of subsurface run-off, important for predicting natural flow rates through contaminated aquifers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗