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At least 109 records · Page 6

Analysis of ICESat Data Using Kalman Filter and Kriging to Study Height Changes in East Antarctica

We analyze ICESat derived heights collected between Feb. 03-Nov. 04 using a kriging/Kalman filtering approach to investigate height changes in East Antarctica. The model's parameters are height change to an a priori static digital height model, seasonal signal expressed as an amplitude Beta and phase Theta, and height-change rate dh/dt for each (100 km)(exp 2) block. From the Kalman filter results, dh/dt has a mean of -0.06 m/yr in the flat interior of East Antarctica. Spatially correlated pointing errors in the current data releases give uncertainties in the range 0.06 m/yr, making height change detection unreliable at this time. Our test shows that when using all available data with pointing knowledge equivalent to that of Laser 2a, height change detection with an accuracy level 0.02 m/yr can be achieved over flat terrains in East Antarctica.

Herring, Thomas A.↗

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

The East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection in the North Atlantic: Climate Impact and Relation to Rossby Wave Propagation

Large-scale winter teleconnection of the East Atlantic - West Russia (EA-WR) over the Atlantic and surrounding regions is examined in order to quantify its impacts on temperature and precipitation and identify the physical mechanisms responsible for its existence. A rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) analysis of the upper-tropospheric monthly height field captures successfully the EA-WR pattern and its interannual variation, with the North Atlantic Oscillation as the first mode. EA-WRs climate impact extends from eastern North America to Eurasia. The positive (negative) EA-WR produces positive (negative) temperature anomalies over the eastern US, western Europe and Russia east of Caspian Sea, with negative (positive) anomalies over eastern Canada, eastern Europe including Ural Mountains and the Middle East. These anomalies are largely explained by lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Positive (negative) precipitation anomalies are found over the mid-latitude Atlantic and central Russia around 60E, where lower-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly is dominant. The eastern Canada and the western Europe are characterized by negative (positive) precipitation anomalies.The EA-WR is found to be closely associated with Rossby wave propagation. Wave activity fluxes show that it is strongly tied to large-scale stationary waves. Furthermore, a stationary wave model (SWM) forced with vorticity transients in the mid-latitude Atlantic (approximately 40N) or diabatic heat source over the subtropical Atlantic near the Caribbean Sea produces well-organized EA-WR-like wave patterns, respectively. Sensitivity tests with the SWM indicate improvement in the simulation of the EA-WR when the mean state is modified to have a positive NAO component that enhances upper-level westerlies between 40-60N.

EA/WR↗

High-Energy X-rays from J174545.5-285829, the Cannonball: a Candidate Pulsar Wind Nebula Associated with Sgr a East

We report the unambiguous detection of non-thermal X-ray emission up to 30 keV from the Cannonball, a few arcsecond long diffuse X-ray feature near the Galactic Center, using the NuSTAR X-ray observatory. The Cannonball is a high-velocity (v(proj) approximately 500 km s(exp −1)) pulsar candidate with a cometary pulsar wind nebula (PWN) located approximately 2' north-east from Sgr A*, just outside the radio shell of the supernova remnant Sagittarius A (Sgr A) East. Its non-thermal X-ray spectrum, measured up to 30 keV, is well characterized by a Gamma is approximately 1.6 power law, typical of a PWN, and has an X-ray luminosity of L(3-30 keV) = 1.3 × 10(exp 34) erg s(exp −1). The spectral and spatial results derived from X-ray and radio data strongly suggest a runaway neutron star born in the Sgr A East supernova event. We do not find any pulsed signal from the Cannonball. The NuSTAR observations allow us to deduce the PWN magnetic field and show that it is consistent with the lower limit obtained from radio observations.

stars: neutron↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

Shukla, Shraddhanand↗

Health and Climate Impacts of Ocean-Going Vessels in East Asia

East Asia has the most rapidly growing shipping emissions of both CO2 and traditional air pollutants, but the least in-depth analysis. Full evaluation of all pollutants is needed to assess the impacts of shipping emissions. Here, using an advanced method based on detailed dynamic ship activity data, we show that shipping emissions in East Asia accounted for 16% of global shipping CO2 in 2013, compared to only 4-7% in 2002-2005. Increased emissions lead to large adverse health impacts, with 14,500-37,500 premature deaths per year. Global mean radiative forcing from East Asian shipping is initially negative, but would become positive after approximately eight years for constant current emissions. As a large fraction of vessels are registered elsewhere, joint efforts are necessary to reduce emissions and mitigate the climate and health impacts of shipping in the region.

climate change impacts↗

Three-Dimensional Distribution of a Major Desert Dust Outbreak over East Asia in March 2008 Derived from IASI Satellite Observations

We describe the daily evolution of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of a major dust outbreak initiated by an extratropical cyclone over East Asia in early March 2008, using new aerosol retrievals derived from satellite observations of IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer). A novel auto-adaptive Tikhonov-Phillips-type approach called AEROIASI is used to retrieve vertical profiles of dust extinction coefficient at 10 microns for most cloud-free IASI pixels, both over land and ocean. The dust vertical distribution derived from AEROIASI is shown to agree remarkably well with along-track transects of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) spaceborne lidar vertical profiles (mean biases less than 110 meters, correlation of 0.95, and precision of 260 meters for mean altitudes of the dust layers). AEROIASI allows the daily characterization of the 3D transport pathways across East Asia of two dust plumes originating from the Gobi and North Chinese deserts. From AEROIASI retrievals, we provide evidence that (i) both dust plumes are transported over the Beijing region and the Yellow Sea as elevated layers above a shallow boundary layer, (ii) as they progress eastward, the dust layers are lifted up by the ascending motions near the core of the extratropical cyclone, and (iii) when being transported over the warm waters of the Japan Sea, turbulent mixing in the deep marine boundary layer leads to high dust concentrations down to the surface. AEROIASI observations and model simulations also show that the progression of the dust plumes across East Asia is tightly related to the advancing cold front of the extratropical cyclone.

Cuesta, Juan↗

Rare Atmospheric River Caused Record Floods Across the Middle East

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for some of the hydroclimatic extremes around the world. Their mechanisms and contribution to flooding in the Middle East are relatively poorly understood. This study shows that the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East were caused by a powerful AR, originated from the North Atlantic Ocean. Iran, in particular, was substantially affected by the floods. The nearly 9000 km long AR propagated across North Africa and the Middle-East, and was fed by additional moisture from several other sources on its pathway. Simultaneous presence of a mid-latitude system and a subtropical jet facilitated the moisture supply. The AR, as passing over the Zagros Mountains, produced record rainfall induced by the orographic forcing. The resulting floods caused widespread damage to infrastructures and left a death toll of at least 76 in Iran.

Amin Dezfuli↗

What Caused the Record Floods of March 2019 Across the Middle East?

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for some of the hydroclimatic extremes around the world. Their mechanisms and contribution to flooding in the Middle East are relatively poorly understood. This study shows that the record floods during March 2019 across the Middle East were caused by a powerful AR, originated from the North Atlantic Ocean. Iran, in particular, was substantially affected by the floods. The nearly 9000 km long AR propagated across North Africa and the Middle-East, and was fed by additional moisture from several other sources on its pathway. Simultaneous presence of a mid-latitude system and a subtropical jet facilitated the moisture supply. The AR, as passing over the Zagros Mountains, produced record rainfall induced by the orographic forcing.

Dezfuli, Amin↗

Decadal Changes in the Interannual Variability of Heat Waves in East Asia Caused by Atmospheric Teleconnection Changes

The heat wave in East Asia is examined by using empirical orthogonal function analysis to isolate dominant heat-wave patterns in the ground-based temperature observations over the Korean Peninsula and China and related large-scale atmospheric circulations obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 during 1973–2012. This study focuses particularly on the interannual variability of heat waves and its decadal change. The analysis identifies two major atmospheric teleconnection patterns playing an important role in developing typical heat-wave patterns in East Asia—the Scandinavian (SCAND) and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) patterns, which exhibit a significant decadal change in the interannual variability in the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, heat-wave occurrence was closely related to the CGT pattern, whereas the SCAND pattern is more crucial to explain heat-wave variability in the recent period. The stationary wave model experiments suggest an intensification of the SCAND pattern in the recent period driven by an increase in land–atmosphere interaction over Eurasia and decadal change in the dominant heat-wave patterns in East Asia.

heat wave patterns↗

Validation, Comparison, and Integration of GOCI, AHI, MODIS, MISR, and VIIRS Aerosol Optical Depth Over East Asia During the 2016 KORUS-AQ Campaign

Recently launched multichannel geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite sensors, such as the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI) and the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI), provide aerosol products over East Asia with high accuracy, which enables the monitoring of rapid diurnal variations and the transboundary transport of aerosols. Most aerosol studies to date have used low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite sensors, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), with a maximum of one or two overpass daylight times per day from midlatitudes to low latitudes. Thus, the demand for new GEO observations with high temporal resolution and improved accuracy has been significant. In this study the latest versions of aerosol optical depth (AOD) products from three LEO sensors – MODIS (Dark Target, Deep Blue, and MAIAC), MISR, and the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), along with two GEO sensors (GOCI and AHI), are validated, compared, and integrated for a period during the Korea–United States Air Quality Study (KORUS-AQ) field campaign from 1 May to 12 June 2016 over East Asia. The AOD products analyzed here generally have high accuracy with high R (0.84–0.93) and low RMSE (0.12–0.17), but their error characteristics differ according to the use of several different surface-reflectance estimation methods. High-accuracy near-real-time GOCI and AHI measurements facilitate the detection of rapid AOD changes, such as smoke aerosol transport from Russia to Japan on 18–21 May 2016, heavy pollution transport from China to the Korean Peninsula on 25 May 2016, and local emission transport from the Seoul Metropolitan Area to the Yellow Sea in South Korea on 5 June 2016. These high-temporal-resolution GEO measurements result in more representative daily AOD values and make a greater contribution to a combined daily AOD product assembled by median value selection with a 0.5∘×0.5∘ grid resolution. The combined AOD is spatially continuous and has a greater number of pixels with high accuracy (fraction within expected error range of 0.61) than individual products. This study characterizes aerosol measurements from LEO and GEO satellites currently in operation over East Asia, and the results presented here can be used to evaluate satellite measurement bias and air quality models.

Myungje Choi↗

East–West Proton Flux Anisotropy Observed with the PAMELA Mission

We present a study of the east–west anisotropy of trapped-proton fluxes in low-Earth orbit based on the measurements of the Payload for Antimatter Matter Exploration and Light-nuclei Astrophysics(PAMELA)experiment. The differential intensities of eastward- and westward-traveling protons detected in the South Atlantic Anomaly region were estimated as a function of equatorial pitch angle and drift shell, for six energy bins between80 MeV and 2 GeV. We found that, as a consequence of the strong atmospheric gradient coupled with the large gyro radius in this energy range, the intensities of eastward fluxes exceed those of westward fluxes by a factor of∼10–20. However, the reported directional asymmetry also depends on the sign of the local flux gradient, resulting in more intense westward fluxes beyond the radial distances where the inner belt peaks. PAMELA observations can be used to improve the description of the near-Earth radiation environment at lowest altitudes and highest trapping energies, where current theoretical and empirical models are affected by the largest uncertainties. Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Cosmic rays(329);Van Allen radiation belts(1758)1. Introduction Low-altitude inner-belt protons are strongly influenced by the density distribution of Earth’s atmosphere, mostly through interactions with its neutral constituents, which induce significant flux anisotropies. In prim is, the atmospheric loss cone results in a steep pitch-angle distribution, which becomes narrower for lower drift shells. A further, azimuthal anisotropy originates from finite gyro radius effects at proton energies in excess of a few tens of MeV(Haerendel1962; Lenchek & Singer1962). In fact, for a given spacecraft position, protons with the same pitch angle but different gyro phase—the azimuth angle associated with the gyration motion—have their guiding centers on different drift shells. In particular, protons from the west and from the east gyrate around magnetic field lines located at higher and lower altitudes, respectively. The guiding-center separationΔhincreaseswith increasing energy, so that protons moving eastward will encounter progressively lower drift-averaged densities, thus experiencing less atmospheric absorption; the opposite situation will occur for protons traveling westward, resulting in an east–west asymmetry of flux intensities whenΔhbecomes comparable to or larger than the flux scale height(Garmire1963; Heckman &Nakano1963).The trapped-flux anisotropy is a relevant aspect of the modeling of the low Earth orbit(LEO)radiation environment, given the significant engineering implications, especially for The Astrophysical Journal,919:114(6pp), 2021 October 1https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ac1677© 2021. The American Astronomical Society.

A. Bruno↗

Modeling the East-West Asymmetry of Energetic Particle Fluence in Large Solar Energetic Particle Events Using the iPATH Model

It has been noted that in large solar energetic particle (SEP) events, the peak intensities show an East-West asymmetry with respect to the source flare locations. Using the 2D improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model, we investigate the origin of this longitudinal trend. We consider multiple cases with different solar wind speeds and eruption speeds of the coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and fit the longitudinal distributions of time-averaged fluence by symmetric/asymmetric Gaussian functions with three time intervals of 8, 24 and 48 hr after the flare onset time respectively. The simulation results are compared with a statistical study of three-spacecraft events. We suggest that the East-West asymmetry of SEP fluence and peak intensity can be primarily caused the combined effect of an extended shock acceleration process and the evolution of magnetic field connection to the shock front. Our simulations show that the solar wind speed and the CME speed are important factors determining the East-West fluence asymmetry.

Zheyi Ding↗

Sources, frequency, and chemical nature of dust events impacting the United States East Coast

This study examines 14 years (2004–2017) of surface aerosol composition data from the EPA IMPROVE network with a focus on the monthly profile, sources, and chemical nature of extreme dust events (>92nd percentile of fine soil concentration each month) impacting ten sites along the United States East Coast ranging in latitude from Florida to Maine. Based on trajectory, remote sensing, and reanalysis data, dust events were categorized into four source categories: African, Asian, Mix (African + Asian), and Other (anything other than African and Asian). The results reveal that extreme dust events account for between 3.3% and 4.6% of total available days depending on the site. March-April-May (MAM) had the most (174) dust events, followed by June-July-August (JJA) with 172, and then by September-October-November (SON) with 160 and December-January-February (DFJ) with 150. There is a variability in the predominant dust sources based on latitude, with African and Other sources more influential from North Carolina to the south, while Asian and Other were most important from New Jersey to the north. The Mix category is consistently the least frequent dust category at all sites. The African dust category was linked to the highest fine soil levels across the entire East Coast relative to other sources regardless of location. JJA is mostly impacted by African dust for sites ranging from Florida to New Jersey, while MAM is dominated by Asian dust for all sites. Mix events occurred mostly between April and October and Other events were most common outside of MAM and JJA seasons. Seven out of ten sites had Other as the most dominant source. Aerosol constituents organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) had higher average concentrations in Other events (2.39 ± 0.78 μg m -3 and 0.79 ± 0.81 μg m -3 , respectively) as compared to the other three source categories, suggestive of regional anthropogenic emissions. Moreover, the ratios of elements (Si:Al, K:Fe, Fe:Ca, Al:Ca) contributing to fine soil and PM 2.5 :PM 10 exhibited distinct values depending on the dust source category and the site. This study builds on the growing evidence of the importance of long-range transport of dust in impacting distant regions and how a variety of sources can impact the U.S. East Coast at all times of the year.

Abdulmonam M. Aldhaif↗

A Climate and History Case Study of 18th- and 19th-Century Multidecadal Droughts in East Africa Using a new Tree-Ring Drought Atlas

Historians and paleoclimatologists have both identified the decades spanning the late-18th and early-19th centuries in many East African regions as a period of prolonged and severe drought. A challenge that emerges from both the historical evidence and the paleolimnological data that have been primarily used to characterize this drought period, however, concerns the dating of events and the characterization of their spatial character; both oral traditions and lake-core proxies cannot typically offer hydroclimate estimates with seasonal or annual resolution, nor can they provide gridded reconstructions on the order of 1° latitude and longitude. The new East African Drought Atlas (EADA) incorporates far-field dendroclimatic records and several local East African tree-ring chronologies to provide estimates of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. We present the Point-by-Point Regression technique that was used to create the EADA, the rationale for the employed input data network, and the calibration and validation skill of the derived hydroclimatic field reconstruction. We use the EADA to characterize the timing of two decadal-scale droughts, centered over the Uganda and Kenya regions, which occurred in the late 18th century and early in the 19th century and were separated by a shorter, but pronounced wet period. We characterize the spatial patterns of the associated events and the dynamical causes that that the patterns imply. The reconstructed droughts are also compared to historical and paleolimnological data to evaluate the robustness of the reconstruction and the degree of agreement across the different sources of information.

Droughts↗

A Climate and History Case Study of 18th- and 19th-Century Multidecadal Droughts in East Africa Using a new Tree-Ring Drought Atlas

Historians and paleoclimatologists have both identified the decades spanning the late-18th and early-19th centuries in many East African regions as a period of prolonged and severe drought. A challenge that emerges from both the historical evidence and the paleolimnological data that have been primarily used to characterize this drought period, however, concerns the dating of events and the characterization of their spatial character; both oral traditions and lake-core proxies cannot typically offer hydroclimate estimates with seasonal or annual resolution, nor can they provide gridded reconstructions on the order of 1° latitude and longitude. The new East African Drought Atlas (EADA) incorporates far-field dendroclimatic records and several local East African tree-ring chronologies to provide estimates of the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. We present the Point-by-Point Regression technique that was used to create the EADA, the rationale for the employed input data network, and the calibration and validation skill of the derived hydroclimatic field reconstruction. We use the EADA to characterize the timing of two decadal-scale droughts, centered over the Uganda and Kenya regions, which occurred in the late 18th century and early in the 19th century and were separated by a shorter, but pronounced wet period. We characterize the spatial patterns of the associated events and the dynamical causes that that the patterns imply. The reconstructed droughts are also compared to historical and paleolimnological data to evaluate the robustness of the reconstruction and the degree of agreement across the different sources of information.

Droughts↗

A review of lithium application for the plasma-facing material in EAST Tokamak

As a low-Z material, lithium is widely tested and used in tokamak devices for particle recycling and impurity control to improve plasma performance. Lithium application as plasma-facing materials via different methods, such as coating, injection and flowing liquid limiter, has been investigated more than 10 years on EAST. This study presents the development of the lithium techniques applied on EAST, and reviews the progresses on the investigation of its interaction with plasma and its effects on the improvement on the plasma performances. In addition, this paper further discusses the potential applications of lithium technique in future fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗