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DOE OSTI2024

Equity and modeling in sustainability science: Examples and opportunities throughout the process

Equity is core to sustainability, but current interventions to enhance sustainability often fall short in adequately addressing this linkage. Models are important tools for informing action, and their development and use present opportunities to center equity in process and outcomes. This Perspective highlights progress in integrating equity into systems modeling in sustainability science, as well as key challenges, tensions, and future directions. We present a conceptual framework for equity in systems modeling, focused on its distributional, procedural, and recognitional dimensions. We discuss examples of how modelers engage with these different dimensions throughout the modeling process and from across a range of modeling approaches and topics, including water resources, energy systems, air quality, and conservation. Synthesizing across these examples, we identify significant advances in enhancing procedural and recognitional equity by reframing models as tools to explore pluralism in worldviews and knowledge systems; enabling models to better represent distributional inequity through new computational techniques and data sources; investigating the dynamics that can drive inequities by linking different modeling approaches; and developing more nuanced metrics for assessing equity outcomes. We also identify important future directions, such as an increased focus on using models to identify pathways to transform underlying conditions that lead to inequities and move toward desired futures. By looking at examples across the diverse fields within sustainability science, we argue that there are valuable opportunities for mutual learning on how to use models more effectively as tools to support sustainable and equitable futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate

Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are moderate in most climate model projections under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. This intermodel consensus may be an artifact of common model biases that favor a stable AMOC. Observationally based freshwater budget analyses suggest that the AMOC is in an unstable regime susceptible for large changes in response to perturbations. By correcting the model biases, we show that the AMOC collapses 300 years after the atmospheric CO2 concentration is abruptly doubled from the 1990 level. Compared to an uncorrected model, the AMOC collapse brings about large, markedly different climate responses: a prominent cooling over the northern North Atlantic and neighboring areas, sea ice increases over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian seas and to the south of Greenland, and a significant southward rain-belt migration over the tropical Atlantic. Our results highlight the need to develop dynamical metrics to constrain models and the importance of reducing model biases in long-term climate projection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid renewable energy systems

In the pursuit of ecologically sustainable and resilient energy systems, increasingly more attention is being devoted to a diversity of energy generation and storage methods. As the landscape of generation technology gains nuance and complexity, a wide-ranging set of technical questions has emerged, touching on topics that range from control and optimization of hybrid systems to finance and economic viability to multi-fidelity modeling and scientific machine learning. In the context of this special issue, hybrid renewable energy systems are any systems that consider the combined dynamics of more than one form of generation, storage, or grid subsystem. Research endeavors have delved into improving the flexibility of energy systems by utilizing existing resources, introducing novel operational strategies, deploying enhanced renewable forecasts, and exploring emerging technologies. In conclusion, the interconnection among various sectors has garnered heightened attention, not only due to the provision of additional tradable energy products but also for furnishing flexible headroom to system operators.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Intrabasin Variability of East Pacific Tropical Cyclones During ENSO Regulated by Central American Gap Winds

Hurricane Patricia in 2015 was the strongest Pacific hurricane to make landfall in Mexico. Although Patricia fortuitously spared major cities, it reminded us of the threat tropical cyclones (TCs) pose in the eastern North Pacific (ENP) and the importance of improving our understanding and prediction of ENP TCs. Patricia’s intensity and the active 2015 ENP hurricane season have been partially attributed to the strong El Niño in 2015, however there is still a lack of fundamental understanding of the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and ENP TCs. Here, we demonstrate that ENSO drives intrabasin variability of ENP TCs, with enhanced (reduced) TC frequency in the western portion of the ENP during El Niño (La Niña), but reduced (enhanced) TC frequency in the eastern nearshore area, where landfalling TCs preferentially form. This intrabasin difference is primarily driven by the Central American Gap Winds (CAGW), which intensify (weaken) during El Niño (La Niña), producing low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) relative vorticity anomalies and thus an unfavorable (favorable) environment for TC genesis. These findings shed new light on the dynamics linking ENP TC activity to ENSO, and highlight the importance of improving CAGW representation in models to make skillful seasonal forecasts of ENP TCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ab initio generalized Langevin equation

We introduce a machine learning–based approach called ab initio generalized Langevin equation (AIGLE) to model the dynamics of slow collective variables (CVs) in materials and molecules. In this scheme, the parameters are learned from atomistic simulations based on ab initio quantum mechanical models. Force field, memory kernel, and noise generator are constructed in the context of the Mori–Zwanzig formalism, under the constraint of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem. Combined with deep potential molecular dynamics and electronic density functional theory, this approach opens the way to multiscale modeling in a variety of situations. Here, we demonstrate this capability with a study of two mesoscale processes in crystalline lead titanate, namely the field-driven dynamics of a planar ferroelectric domain wall, and the dynamics of an extensive lattice of coarse-grained electric dipoles. In the first case, AIGLE extends the reach of ab initio simulations to a regime of noise-driven motions not accessible to molecular dynamics. In the second case, AIGLE deals with an extensive set of CVs by adopting a local approximation for the memory kernel and retaining only short-range noise correlations. The scheme is computationally more efficient than molecular dynamics by several orders of magnitude and mimics the microscopic dynamics at low frequencies where it reproduces accurately the dominant far-infrared absorption frequency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 6: Modeling and Simulation of Wind-Farm Flows

The subject of this chapter is the modeling and simulation of the flow through full wind farms, also known as wind plants, which are collections of many wind turbines within a region working together to supply power to the grid like any other type of power plant. This topic is interesting and exciting because of the increasing variety of and uses for wind plant flow modeling and simulation. For example, Figure 6.1 shows the computed flow field from a high-fidelity simulation of the Lillgrund offshore wind farm using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with large-eddy simulation (LES) turbulence modeling and actuator line rotor aerodynamics models. There are many ways to model this type of flow, ranging from very simple models of wind turbine wakes and their interactions that can run in a matter of seconds on a laptop to high-fidelity, turbulence -resolving LES of the atmospheric flow and wakes that require days of use of thousands of cores on a high-performance computing cluster. The uses of wind plant flow simulations are equally varied. Wind plant layout designers run hundreds or thousands of simulations over all possible wind directions and speeds using simple models to predict a future wind plant's annual energy production. Researchers use LESs of the wind plant to study phenomena such as wind turbine wake interactions with each other and with the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). As computational resources become more readily available, it is even becoming common for turbine manufacturers to use CFD of some form to model wind plants in complex terrain to help in the wind turbine siting and selection process. We are beginning to see the expensive, high-fidelity tools being used to create data and knowledge that improves or enables the creation of new cheaper, lower fidelity tools. We are also beginning to see the low- and high-fidelity tools used together to perform uncertainty quantification of energy estimates and optimization of wind plant layouts. As new computing technologies mature, such as graphics processing unit (GPU)-based computing, the future of full wind plant flow modeling is exciting.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fuel Injection Dynamics and Composition Effects on RDE Performance

Rotating detonation engines (RDEs) provide a promising route to substantially increasing cycle efficiency in stationary gas turbines. Much of this increase relies on the ability to achieve consistent pressure gain within the combustor. In particular, the design of injectors that feed fuel and air into the detonation channel plays a crucial role. Such injectors have to ensure proper mixing of fuel and oxidizer, while minimizing backflow of detonation products into the feed plenums, and reduce susceptibility to the complex wave structures that exist within the combustor. From a practical perspective, such RDEs also need to operate with variable fuel composition. When fuel mixtures with components that possess vastly different oxidation pathways and time-scales are used, there could be additional losses through deflagrative burning instead of detonation-driven heat release. Such sensitivity to the complete flow path is akin to the physics of thermoacoustic instabilities in conventional gas turbines. In this sense, RDEs pose a unique research challenge: the performance of the device relies on the small-scale heat release process, which is highly dependent on the flow interactions within the full-scale system. As a result, canonical flow configurations, instrumented with detailed diagnostics or modeled using high-fidelity tools, but only focus on the small-scale processes will not contain the key system-level interactions. At the same time, macroscopic measurements and models that only capture system-level performance will not provide insight into the key sources of pressure losses. These couplings and sensitivities provide a formidable challenge to both experimental and simulation studies of the effects Thus, a joint experimental/computational program designed specifically to address these challenges was undertaken in this program. The focus of this program was on two key topics: a) the interaction between injector flow and the overall wave dynamics within the combustor, and b) the deflagration/detonation structure in multi-component fuels that are of practical interest. Both topics involve interaction of small-scale heat release processes with the geometry-dependent wave structure. Studies focused on the study of full-scale RDE systems, based on a 6-inch conventional annular geometry. Experimentally RDEs were studied using a combination of diagnostics. A combination of optical diagnostics and aero-thermo-acoustic analysis based on a combination of spectral and mode decomposition analysis was used to identify the dynamics of the detonation wave and other secondary waves that exist in the system. These studies have helped the identification and investigation of injector and detonation dynamics arising from coupling, and how they affect RDE mixing, detonation structure, operability and performance. Performance of RDEs was investigated through thrust stand measurements, which was used to evaluate the effective pressure gain generated by the system through the concept of equivalent available pressure. Optical diagnostics were developed and implemented to investigate the distribution of heat release, across the detonation wave. Novel optical diagnostics of NIR imaging was also developed and applied to investigate the high temperature / high pressure distribution across the detonation wave. In order to complement the experiments, the computational tools were geared to simulate the full experimental setup. GPU-based acceleration of the models and computations were developed to enable rapid simulation of the full system. In addition, the use of adaptive mesh refinement, and unstructured grid formulation, enabled the investigation of realistic geometries studied in the laboratory. The simulations produced a wealth of detail on the structure of the detonation wave under different operating conditions. Emphasis was placed on quantifying mixture pre-burning and the impact on wave propagation and structure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Beam Dynamics in g-2 Storage Ring

The muon anomalous magnetic moment has played an important role in constraining physics beyond the Standard Model. The Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment has a goal to measure it to unprecedented precision: 0.14 ppm. To achieve this goal, we must understand the beam dynamics systematic effects in the muon storage ring. We will present the muon beam dynamics and discuss two specific topics here: the beam resonance which is related to the muon loss and the fast rotation analysis to determine the muon momentum distribution.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Can the Impact of Aerosols on Deep Convection be Isolated from Meteorological Effects in Atmospheric Observations?

Influence of pollution on dynamics of deep convection continues to be a controversial topic. Arguably, only carefully designed numerical simulations can clearly separate the impact of aerosols from the effects of meteorological factors that affect moist convection. This paper argues that such a separation is virtually impossible using observations because of the insufficient accuracy of atmospheric measurements and the fundamental nature of the interaction between deep convection and its environment. To support this conjecture, results from numerical simulations are presented that apply modeling methodology previously developed by the author. The simulations consider small modifications, difficult to detect in observations, of the initial sounding, surface fluxes, and large-scale forcing tendencies. All these represent variations of meteorological conditions that affect deep convective dynamics independently of aerosols. The setup follows the case of daytime convective development over land based on observations during the Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (LBA) field project in Amazonia. The simulated observable macroscopic changes of convection, such as the surface precipitation and upper-tropospheric cloudiness, are similar to or larger than those resulting from changes of cloud condensation nuclei from pristine to polluted conditions studied previously using the same modeling case. Observations from Phase III of the Global Atmospheric Research Program Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) are also used to support the argument concerning the impact of the large-scale forcing. The simulations suggest that the aerosol impacts on dynamics of deep convection cannot be isolated from meteorological effects, at least for the daytime development of unorganized deep convection considered in this study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2016

Perspective: Ultrafast magnetism and THz spintronics

This year the discovery of femtosecond demagnetization by laser pulses is 20 years old. For the first time, this milestone work by Bigot and coworkers gave insight directly into the time scales of microscopic interactions that connect the spin and electron system. While intense discussions in the field were fueled by the complexity of the processes in the past, it now became evident that it is a puzzle of many different parts. Rather than providing an overview that has been presented in previous reviews on ultrafast processes in ferromagnets, this perspective will show that with our current depth of knowledge the first applications are developed: THz spintronics and all-optical spin manipulation are becoming more and more feasible. The aim of this perspective is to point out where we can connect the different puzzle pieces of understanding gathered over 20 years to develop novel applications. Based on many observations in a large number of experiments. Differences in the theoretical models arise from the localized and delocalized nature of ferromagnetism. Transport effects are intrinsically non-local in spintronic devices and at interfaces. We review the need for multiscale modeling to address the processes starting from electronic excitation of the spin system on the picometer length scale and sub-femtosecond time scale, to spin wave generation, and towards the modeling of ultrafast phase transitions that altogether determine the response time of the ferromagnetic system. Today, our current understanding gives rise to the first usage of ultrafast spin physics for ultrafast magnetism control: THz spintronic devices. This makes the field of ultrafast spin-dynamics an emerging topic open for many researchers right now.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Structural switching dynamically controls the doubly pseudoknotted Rous sarcoma virus–programmed ribosomal frameshifting element

A hallmark of retrovirus replication is the translation of two different polyproteins from one RNA through programmed –1 frameshifting. This is a mechanism in which the actively translating ribosome is induced to slip in the 5′ direction at a defined codon and then continues translating in the new reading frame. Programmed frameshifting controls the stoichiometry of viral proteins and is therefore under stringent evolutionary selection. Forty years ago, the first frameshifting stimulatory element was discovered in the Rous sarcoma virus. The ~120 nt RNA segment was predicted to contain a pseudoknot, but its 3D structure has remained elusive. Now, we have determined cryoEM and X-ray crystallographic structures of this classic retroviral element, finding that it adopts a butterfly-like double-pseudoknot fold. One “wing” contains a dynamic pyrimidine-rich helix, observed crystallographically in two conformations and in a third conformation via cryoEM. The other wing encompasses the predicted pseudoknot, which interacts with a second unexpected pseudoknot through a toggle residue, A2546. This key purine switches conformations between structural states and tunes the stability of interacting residues in the two wings. We find that its mutation can modulate frameshifting by as much as 50-fold, likely by altering the relative abundance of different structural states in the conformational ensemble of the RNA. Taken together, our structure–function analyses reveal how a dynamic double pseudoknot junction stimulates frameshifting by taking advantage of conformational heterogeneity, supporting a multistate model in which high Shannon entropy enhances frameshifting efficiency.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2013

Modeling the within-host dynamics of HIV infection

The new field of viral dynamics, based on within-host modeling of viral infections, began with models of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but now includes many viral infections. Here we review developments in HIV modeling, emphasizing quantitative findings about HIV biology uncovered by studying acute infection, the response to drug therapy and the rate of generation of HIV variants that escape immune responses. We show how modeling has revealed many dynamical features of HIV infection and how it may provide insight into the ultimate cure for this infection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of reverse gun taylor cylinder experimental configuration

Experimental efforts for Taylor-anvil impact tests have often been limited to near room temperature. The ‘Reverse Gun’ method proposed by Gust in 1982 allows for the Taylor impact specimen to be uniformly heated without temperature losses before impact. Through the use of finite element analysis, we explore two topics in this work. First, we examine whether the reverse gun experimental configuration is comparable to the traditional Taylor-anvil setup. Second, we assess the accuracy of several commonly employed flow strength models in terms of their ability to predict the reverse gun experimental results which involve dynamic loading conditions and complex thermo-mechanical coupling. The reverse gun simulations are performed for tantalum targets at initial temperatures in the range 295 K to 1295 K and velocities from 135 m/s to 242 m/s. We show that with suitable care in the modeling of the preheated reverse gun experiments one can make valuable assessments of flow strength models. Given the conditions explored, these observations probe the thermal softening, strain hardening, and strain rate sensitivity of the material.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Beam manipulation techniques, nonlinear beam dynamics, and space charge effect in high energy high power accelerators

We had carried out a design of an ultimate storage ring with beam emittance less than 10 picometer for the feasibility of coherent light source at X-ray wavelength. The accelerator has an inherent small dynamic aperture. We study method to improve the dynamic aperture and collective instability for an ultimate storage ring. Beam measurement and accelerator modeling are an integral part of accelerator physics. We develop the independent component analysis (ICA) and the orbit response matrix method for improving accelerator reliability and performance. In collaboration with scientists in National Laboratories, we also carry out experimental and theoretical studies on beam dynamics. Our proposed research topics are relevant to nuclear and particle physics using high brightness particle and photon beams.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Advances in 3D transient plasma dynamics and control through MHD and hybrid fluid-kinetic simulations with JOREK

Transient phenomena and their control are of high relevance in magnetic confinement fusion plasmas to guarantee a stable and safe plasma operation. Interpretative simulations can maximize the insights gained from experiments on present machines and predictive simulations can help in the preparation of design, mitigation techniques and operational scenarios for future devices. In this article, we provide an overview of recent advances and novel scientific results obtained with the 3D non-linear hybrid fluid-kinetic code JOREK, covering physics of plasma transients from the core to the scrape-off layer (SOL) both for tokamak and stellarator devices. Substantial progress was made in the physics understanding, model validation with experiments and experiment interpretation, thus, giving confidence for predictions to devices like DTT, ITER and DEMO. The topics addressed comprise a wide range: the edge physics of new operation scenarios and edge localized mode suppression; major disruptions with a focus on runaway electrons and vertical displacement events as well as disruption mitigation by shattered pellet injection; the physics mechanisms and operational limits of the flux pumping regime for sawtooth control; MHD limits of stellarators and work towards incorporating advanced edge/SOL/exhaust dynamics; continuing improvements of the code for more efficient hybrid simulations on conventional and accelerated high performance computing architectures.

disruptions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scientific machine learning for modeling and simulating complex fluids

The formulation of rheological constitutive equations—models that relate internal stresses and deformations in complex fluids—is a critical step in the engineering of systems involving soft materials. While data-driven models provide accessible alternatives to expensive first-principles models and less accurate empirical models in many engineering disciplines, the development of similar models for complex fluids has lagged. The diversity of techniques for characterizing non-Newtonian fluid dynamics creates a challenge for classical machine learning approaches, which require uniformly structured training data. Consequently, early machine-learning based constitutive equations have not been portable between different deformation protocols or mechanical observables. Here, we present a data-driven framework that resolves such issues, allowing rheologists to construct learnable models that incorporate essential physical information, while remaining agnostic to details regarding particular experimental protocols or flow kinematics. These scientific machine learning models incorporate a universal approximator within a materially objective tensorial constitutive framework. By construction, these models respect physical constraints, such as frame-invariance and tensor symmetry, required by continuum mechanics. We demonstrate that this framework facilitates the rapid discovery of accurate constitutive equations from limited data and that the learned models may be used to describe more kinematically complex flows. This inherent flexibility admits the application of these “digital fluid twins” to a range of material systems and engineering problems. We illustrate this flexibility by deploying a trained model within a multidimensional computational fluid dynamics simulation—a task that is not achievable using any previously developed data-driven rheological equation of state.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2015

Artium mater in relativistic astrophysics : New perspectives for a European-Latin American PhD program

Following the successful scientific space missions by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Southern Observatory (ESO) in Chile, as well as the high-energy particle activities at CERN in Genve, we have created a Ph.D. program dedicated to the formation of scientists in the field of relativistic astrophysics. The students of such a program will lead the theoretical developments of one of the most active fields of research, based on the above observational and experimental facilities. This program needs expertise in the most advanced topics of mathematical and theoretical physics, and in relativistic field theories. It requires the ability to model the observational data received from the above facilities, as well as all the basic knowledge in astronomy, astrophysics and cosmology. This activity is necessarily international, no single university can cover the broad expertises. From this, the proposed program of the IRAP Ph.D., in one of the youngest and most dynamical French universities, pole of research and teaching in the Euro-Mediterranean region (PRES): the University of Nice. It benefits from the presence of the astrophysics research institute of Observatoire de la Cte d’Azur involved in relativistic and non-photonic astrophysics. The participation of the Freie Universitaet Berlin, Oldenburg and Bremen Universities and of the Einstein Institute in Potsdam offers the possibility of teaching in relativistic field theories at the highest level. The University of Savoy offers the link to the particle physics at CERN. The activities at the University of Rome, at Stockholm University and at ICRANet offer teaching programs in all the fields of relativistic astrophysics, including cosmology, the physics of gravitational collapse, gamma-ray bursts, and black hole physics. Finally, the University of Ferrara will be present with lectures and researches in the topics they have pioneered such as x-ray astrophysics and observational cosmology. Through ICRANet the extra-European connections with Brazil, China and India will be guaranteed: in China, with the Shanghai Observatory of the Chinese Academy of Science, studying the formation and evolution of large-scale structure and galaxies; in India, with the Indian Centre for Space Physics (ICSP), renowned for its research on compact objects as well as on solar physics and astrochemistry; in Brazil with ICRANet Brazil where a successful program of research and teaching in relativistic astrophysics has been established in recent years.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗