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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Contribution of Meteorological Downscaling to Skill and Precision of Seasonal Drought Forecasts

Research in meteorological prediction on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales has seen growth in recent years. Concurrent with this, demand for seasonal drought forecasting has risen. While there is obvious synergy between these fields, S2S meteorological forecasting has typically focused on low resolution global models, while the development of drought can be sensitive to the local expression of weather anomalies and their interaction with local surface properties and processes. This suggests that downscaling might play an important role in the application of meteorological S2S forecasts to skillful forecasting of drought. Here, we apply the Generalized Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) algorithm to downscale meteorological hindcasts from the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global S2S forecast system. Downscaled meteorological fields are then applied to drive offline simulations with the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) to forecast United States Drought Monitor (USDM) style drought indicators derived from simulated surface hydrology variables. We compare the representation of drought in these downscaled hindcasts to hindcasts that are not downscaled, using the North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase 2 (NLDAS-2) dataset as an observational reference. We find that downscaling using GARD improves hindcasts of temperature and temperature anomalies, but the results for precipitation are mixed and generally small. Overall, GARD downscaling led to improved hindcast skill for total drought across the Contiguous United States (CONUS), and improvements were greatest for extreme (D3) and exceptional (D4) drought categories.

Ryan A Zamora↗
NASA NTRS2023

Global Assessment of Drought Characteristics in the Anthropocene

Contemporary understanding of the impacts of climate change on global drought characteristics (e.g., intensities, extents) is still limited and not well understood. This knowledge is critical because projected changes in climate are expected to impact on future water availability as well as influence decisions on how water resources are allocated. The main aim of this study is to improve understanding of drought characteristics (extents and duration) in the Anthropocene where rapid changes in the environment are caused by the composite influence of human activities and climate change. Multi-scale earth observation data (1980 - 2020) and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate models, which incorporate the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2040 - 2070 and 2070 - 2100) are used to assess these characteristics as well as identify climatic hotspots where changes in drought characteristics could drive groundwater hydrology. Results show that towards the end of the 21st century, global land areas under drought will significantly decrease but their durations will not. Generally, there is evidence of significant decline in the proportion of areas that will experience various drought intensities (moderate, severe and extreme drought) in the future and for each category, drought affected areas will not reach 30% on average. Moreover, some regions are potential hotspots of climate–groundwater interactions where drought events could directly impact on groundwater. This is because of the varying degree of strong correlations (positive and negative) between climate and groundwater data in some areas (e.g., Australia, Europe, Southern Africa, Asia). The relatively strong negative correlations in some of these hotspots are indicative of the presence of considerable lags, that could be caused by aridity as well as human groundwater footprints.

Christopher E Ndehedehe↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Drought Stress on Sorghum bicolor Yield, Deconstruction, and Microbial Conversion Determined in a Feedstocks-to-Fuels Pipeline

Sorghum is an attractive feedstock for biobased fuel and chemical production because it is familiar to farmers, naturally drought tolerant, and versatile as a food, feed, and fuel crop. Although sorghum is a promising feedstock, particularly in regions that experience drought stress, little is known about how drought conditions impact the ease of conversion of sorghum to fuels and products. This study combines agronomic field trials with a high-throughput experimental pipeline to explore the field performance and liquid biofuel (bisabolene) yields resulting from three sorghum types (photosensitive forage sorghum, optimized grain sorghum, and drought-resistant grain sorghum) grown under pre- and postflowering water limitations in two different California locations. Multiple drought treatments are compared to the control, as the timing (preflowering versus postflowering) of drought stress elicits different survival strategies and corresponding impacts on yield and composition. Forage-type sorghum maintained the highest biomass yields across all irrigation conditions and locations. Glucose and xylose yields resulting from ionic liquid pretreatment and enzymatic saccharification were not significantly impacted by irrigation treatments but differed by location and genotype. However, Rhodosporidium toruloides grown on the resulting plant hydrolysates unexpectedly produced higher titers of bisabolene for drought-stressed sorghum samples regardless of genotype.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Contribution of Anthropogenic Warming to California Drought During 2012-2014

A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012-2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012-2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8-27 percent of the observed drought anomaly in 2012-2014 and 5-18 percent in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

California↗
NASA NTRS2018

Past and Future Drought in Mongolia

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

drought projection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydroclimate-coupled framework for assessing power system resilience under summer drought and climate change

Extreme drought, exacerbated by climate change, increasingly threatens power system resilience, and a systematic assessment of such impacts is challenging due to the unpredictability of drought and their associated modeling complexity. Here, to address the challenge, this research develops a hydroclimate-coupled power system resilience assessment framework that enables systematic modeling of drought and climate change impacts on generation, transmission, and demand sectors. Applying the framework to the 2025 Eastern U.S. power grid — comprising 6,055 at-risk generators — under climate-induced summer drought scenarios (including SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2023 to 2100, the study finds that climate-induced droughts could jeopardize the power system’s reliability to a greater extent than historical events, potentially leading to widespread load shedding. More specifically, the study reveals that under the twenty-one representative drought scenarios, the loss of load expectation (LOLE) of the grid could range from 34.77 to 91.48 days per summer. The simulations indicate that implementing resilience enhancement strategies is crucial to ensure reliable system operation, which encompasses initiatives such as demand response, upgrading open cooling systems, and transmission expansion. In all, these findings underscore the urgent need for proactive planning and investment in resilient U.S. power systems to mitigate the impacts of extreme drought events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intensifying Renewable Energy Droughts in the Western U.S. Amid Evolving Infrastructure and Climate

If renewable energy resources continue to become a larger part of the generation mix in the United States (U.S.), so does the potential impact of prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, known as variable renewable energy (VRE) droughts. In such a future, naturally occurring VRE droughts need to be evaluated for their potential impact on grid reliability. This study is the first of its kind to examine the impacts of compound VRE energy droughts in the Western U.S. across a range of potential future climate and infrastructure scenarios. We find that compound VRE drought severity may increase significantly in the future, primarily due to the dramatic increase in wind and solar generation needed in some future infrastructure scenarios. We find that in our future climate scenario, the variability of energy drought severity increases, which has implications for sizing energy storage necessary for mitigating drought events. We also examine the spatial patterns of compound VRE drought events that effect multiple regions of the grid simultaneously. These co-occurring events have distinct spatial patterns depending on the season. We observed overall fewer connected events in the future with the combined effect of potential climate and infrastructure changes, although in the fall we observe a climate-induced shift toward events which impact more regions simultaneously.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot droughts in the Amazon provide a window to a future hypertropical climate

Tropical forests represent the warmest and wettest of Earth’s biomes, but with continued anthropogenic warming, they will be pushed to climate states with no current analogue. Droughts in the tropics are already becoming more intense as they occur at successively higher temperatures. Here, in this study, we synthesize multiple datasets to assess the effects of hot droughts on a central Amazon forest. First, a more than 30-year record of annually resolved forest demographic data from a selective logging experiment showed higher tree mortality during intense droughts, particularly among fast-growing pioneer species with low wood density. Second, analysis of ecophysiological field measurements from the 2015 and 2023 El Niño droughts identified a soil moisture threshold beyond which transpiration rates rapidly declined. As rainless days beyond this threshold continued, drought conditions intensified, increasing the potential for tree mortality from hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. Third, analyses from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 demonstrated that under high-emission scenarios, a large area of tropical forest will shift to a hotter ‘hypertropical’ climate by 2100. Last, under a hypertropical climate, temperature and moisture conditions during typical dry season months will more frequently exceed identified drought mortality thresholds, elevating the risk of forest dieback. Present-day hot droughts are harbingers of this emerging climate, offering a window for studying tropical forests under expected extreme future conditions.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bacterial population-level trade-offs between drought tolerance and resource acquisition traits impact decomposition

Microbes drive fundamental ecosystem processes, such as decomposition. Environmental stressors are known to affect microbes, their fitness, and the ecosystem functions that they perform; yet, understanding the causal mechanisms behind this influence has been difficult. We used leaf litter on soil surface as a model in situ system to assess changes in bacterial genomic traits and decomposition rates for 18 months with drought as a stressor. We hypothesized that genome-scale trade-offs due to investment in stress tolerance traits under drought reduce the capacity for bacterial populations to carry out decomposition, and that these population-level trade-offs scale up to impact emergent community traits, thereby reducing decomposition rates. We observed drought tolerance mechanisms that were heightened in bacterial populations under drought, identified as higher gene copy numbers in metagenome-assembled genomes. A subset of populations under drought had reduced carbohydrate-active enzyme genes that suggested—as a trade-off—a decline in decomposition capabilities. These trade-offs were driven by community succession and taxonomic shifts as distinct patterns appeared in populations. We show that trait–trade-offs in bacterial populations under drought could scale up to reduce overall decomposition capabilities and litter decay rates. Using a trait-based approach to assess the population ecology of soil bacteria, we demonstrate genome-level trade-offs in response to drought with consequences for decomposition rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Drought Reduces Formation, but Enhances Persistence, of Mineral‐Associated Organic Matter in a Grassland Soil

Drought effects are pervasive in terrestrial ecosystems, yet there is limited understanding of how drought impacts the transformation of plant carbon (C) inputs to mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM)—the largest and slowest-cycling pool of soil organic carbon (SOC). In a 12-week 13 C-CO 2 greenhouse labeling experiment, we tracked the formation of MAOM derived from the two dominant sources of plant C input to the mineral soil—living root inputs ( 13 C-rhizodeposits) and decaying root inputs ( 13 C-root detritus)—under normal moisture and droughted conditions in a semiarid grassland soil. At the end of the 12-week period, we also measured the persistence of 13 C-MAOM formed from rhizodeposits versus root detritus via a subsequent persistence assay. Drought reduced the formation of MAOM derived from living roots by decreasing rhizodeposits, reducing microbial growth rates, and altering the composition of organic matter, lipids, and metabolites. Drought initially delayed the formation of MAOM derived from root detritus by slowing the early stages of root litter decomposition (week 4–8), but did not decrease total MAOM formation by the end of the 12-week period. Notably, drought enhanced the persistence of MAOM derived from root detritus, but did not influence the persistence of MAOM derived from rhizodeposits. Our results provide some of the first direct evidence that drought can reduce the formation of MAOM in a grassland soil, but may enhance its persistence, based on the source of plant input from which MAOM is derived.

13C- labeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tree drought physiology: critical research questions and strategies for mitigating climate change effects on forests

Droughts of increasing severity and frequency are a primary cause of forest mortality associated with climate change. Yet, fundamental knowledge gaps regarding the complex physiology of trees limit the development of more effective management strategies to mitigate drought effects on forests. Here, in this work, we highlight some of the basic research needed to better understand tree drought physiology and how new technologies and interdisciplinary approaches can be used to address them. Our discussion focuses on how trees change wood development to mitigate water stress, hormonal responses to drought, genetic variation underlying adaptive drought phenotypes, how trees ‘remember’ prior stress exposure, and how symbiotic soil microbes affect drought response. Next, we identify opportunities for using research findings to enhance or develop new strategies for managing drought effects on forests, ranging from matching genotypes to environments, to enhancing seedling resilience through nursery treatments, to landscape-scale monitoring and predictions. We conclude with a discussion of the need for co-producing research with land managers and extending research to forests in critical ecological regions beyond the temperate zone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Acquisitive root exploration strategies help maintain higher peak sap flux rates during summer drought, but more root biomass does not

Roots are responsible for soil water uptake, yet little is known about how variation in fine-root traits relates to whole-tree water movement, particularly during periods of drought. By combining a 3-yr dataset monitoring sap flow rates with measures of fine-root biomass, length, and morphology across 10 tree species, we addressed hypotheses concerning the role of fine-root system size and morphology in determining tree responses to summer drought as well as potential changes in their relative importance under more severe droughts. Greater fine-root biomass and length did not enable trees to maintain high rates of sap flow during drought, whereas the morphological traits, specific root length and specific root area, were linked to sustained sap flow rates during drought. We found that all species, irrespective of root traits, progressively reduced their sap flow under more extreme drought conditions, although more acquisitive root morphology was still associated with smaller reductions. Our results run counter to long-standing assumptions that larger root systems are better able to access soil water and maintain photosynthetic activity during drought. Instead, we find evidence that root morphology at least partially determines the capacity for water uptake and movement as soil moisture declines.

drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating Epistemic Uncertainty in the Management of Flash Droughts

Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adverse effects through better preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detecting flash drought events to inform adaptive water management

Abstract: Flash droughts are characterized by a rapid onset of drought conditions, a common feature among various indicators of these events. The lack of a standardized definition and indicator makes flash droughts particularly challenging to predict and manage. We test six state-of-the-art flash drought indicators using 41 years of daily data across all Hydrological Unit Code 4 (HUC4) regions in the contiguous United States. Our results show substantial disagreements among indicators, suggesting that the detection of a flash drought event strongly depends on the choice of indicator. From the perspective of informing management and operations, an open challenge remains: which flash drought indicator should be used to trigger operational adaptations? To this end, we propose a methodological framework that informs adaptive actions by regionally assessing the level of agreement between different indicators. The regional differences in hydroclimatic conditions are expected to be reflected in the level of agreement between indicators. To better inform adaptive actions, the framework will also consider the impacted sectoral water uses and their varying response times. The insights gained from this study improve the understanding of how these different flash drought indicators capture the different aspects of regional differences and impacted sectors. Furthermore, this information can support more targeted adaptive actions to mitigate adverse impacts through improved preparedness and response strategies.

climate resilience↗
NASA NTRS2020

Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

There is strong evidence climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi‐model ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200–300% in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature‐sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2020

Synergistic Use of SMAP and OCO-2 Data in Assessing the Responses of Ecosystem Productivity to the 2018 U.S. Drought

Soil moisture and gross primary productivity (GPP) estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) provide new opportunities for understanding the relationship between soil moisture and terrestrial photosynthesis over large regions. Here we explored the potential of the synergistic use of SMAP and OCO-2 based data for monitoring the responses of ecosystem productivity to drought. We used complementary observational information on root-zone soil moisture and GPP (9 km) from SMAP and fine-resolution SIF (0.05°; GOSIF) derived from OCO-2 SIF soundings. We compared the spatial pattern and temporal evolution of anomalies of these variables over the conterminous U.S. during the 2018 drought, and examined to what extent they could characterize the drought-induced variations of flux tower GPP and crop yield data. Our results showed that SMAP GPP and GOSIF could well capture the spatial extent and dynamics of drought indicated by the U.S. Drought Monitor maps and the SMAP root-zone soil moisture deficit. Over the U.S. Southwest, monthly anomalies of soil moisture showed significant positive correlations with those of SMAP GPP (R2=0.44, p<0.001) and GOSIF (R2=0.76, p<0.001), demonstrating strong water availability constraints on plant productivity across dryland ecosystems. We further found that SMAP GPP and GOSIF captured the impact of drought on tower GPP and crop yield. Our results suggest that synergistic use of SMAP and OCO-2 data products can reveal the drought evolution and its impact on ecosystem productivity and carbon uptake at multiple spatial and temporal scales, and demonstrate the value of SMAP and OCO-2 for studying ecosystem function, carbon cycling, and climate change.

Soil Moisture Active Passive↗
NASA NTRS2021

Tree-Ring Reconstruction of the Atmospheric Ridging Feature that Causes Flash Drought in the Central United States Since 1500

Rapid drought intensification, or flash droughts, is often driven by anomalous atmospheric ridging and can cause severe and complex impacts on water availability and agriculture, but the full range of variability of such events in terms of intensity and frequency is unknown. New tree-ring reconstructions of May–July mid-tropospheric ridging and soil moisture anomalies back to 1500 CE in the central United States — a hotspot for flash drought — suggest that over the last five centuries, anomalies in these two variables combined to indicate flash-drought conditions in ~17% of years and exceptionally severe flash drought in ~4% of years, similar to frequencies in recent decades. However, over one-third of all inferred exceptional flash droughts occurred since 1900, suggesting the 20th century was highly flash-drought prone. These results may guide future work to diagnose the roles of external, oceanic, and land-surface forcing of warm-season atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate over North America.

Flash Drought↗
NASA NTRS2024

Characterizing the 2019-2021 Drought in La Plata River Basin With GLDAS and SMAP

Study region The La Plata River Basin (LPRB) is an area of interest, as there was a significant drought event from 2019 to 2021. With the LPRB being the second largest river basin in South America, this drought affected all aspects of life for over 100 million people who inhabit this area. Study focus In this study, we utilized satellite and model datasets to examine spatial and temporal variability of hydrological anomalies throughout the basin before and during the drought event. These variable anomalies, such as precipitation and groundwater, are derived from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Additionally, the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observations were used in the spatial and temporal analysis of the drought. The water loss was calculated using the Mann-Kendall test to assess the changes in anomalies for the terrestrial water storage throughout the basin and subbasins. New hydrological insights for the region The main insight from this study is the agreement of the GLDAS anomalies with the SMAP data throughout the drought. The variable anomalies all decreased and showed alignment with the downscaled 1 km SMAP which shows alignment with the trends from in-situ observations. It was also found that the Upper Parana subbasin lost the most water over the drought period. These products improve understanding of the spatial variability within the entire basin and facilitate understanding of droughts and resources to assist in the future management of water resources.

La Plata Basin↗