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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Improved calorimetric particle identification in NA62 using machine learning techniques

Measurement of the ultra-rare $K^+$ → $π$ +$ν$$\overline{ν}$ decay at the NA62 experiment at CERN requires high-performance particle identification to distinguish muons from pions. Calorimetric identification currently in use, based on a boosted decision tree algorithm, achieves a muon misidentification probability of 1.2×10 -5 for a pion identification efficiency of 75% in the momentum range of 15–40 GeV/c. In this work, calorimetric identification performance is improved by developing an algorithm based on a convolutional neural network classifier augmented by a filter. Muon misidentification probability is reduced by a factor of six with respect to the current value for a fixed pion-identification efficiency of 75%. Alternatively, pion identification efficiency is improved from 72% to 91% for a fixed muon misidentification probability of 10 -5 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Search for supersymmetry using vector boson fusion signatures and missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

This paper presents a search for supersymmetric particles in models with highly compressed mass spectra, in events consistent with being produced through vector boson fusion. The search uses 140 fb −1 of proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. Events containing at least two jets with a large gap in pseudorapidity, large missing transverse momentum, and no reconstructed leptons are selected. A boosted decision tree is used to separate events consistent with the production of supersymmetric particles from those due to Standard Model backgrounds. The data are found to be consistent with Standard Model predictions. The results are interpreted using simplified models of R-parity-conserving supersymmetry in which the lightest supersymmetric partner is a bino-like neutralino with a mass similar to that of the lightest chargino and second-to-lightest neutralino, both of which are wino-like. Lower limits at 95% confidence level on the masses of next-to-lightest supersymmetric partners in this simplified model are established between 117 and 120 GeV when the lightest supersymmetric partners are within 1 GeV in mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for the lepton-flavor-violating τ − → e ∓ ℓ ± ℓ − decays at Belle II

We present the result of a search for the charged-lepton-flavor violating decays τ − → e ∓ ℓ ± ℓ − , where ℓ is a muon or an electron, using a data sample with an integrated luminosity of 428 fb −1 recorded by the Belle II experiment at the SuperKEKB e + e − collider. The selection of e + e − → τ + τ − events containing a signal candidate is based on an inclusive-tagging reconstruction and on a boosted decision tree to suppress background. Upper limits on the branching fractions between 1.3 and 2.5 × 10 −8 are set at the 90% confidence level. These results are the most stringent bounds to date for four of the modes.

flavour physics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the role of segmentation on process-structure–property predictions made via machine learning

Here, the present study investigated the effect of porosity surface determination methods on performance of machine learning models used to predict the tensile properties of AlSi10Mg processed by laser powder bed fusion from micro-computed tomography data. Machine learning models applied in this work include support vector machines, neural networks, decision trees, and Bayesian classifiers. The effects of isosurface thresholding and local gradient approaches for porosity segmentation, as well as image filtering schemes, on model precision were evaluated for samples produced under differing levels of global energy density.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning for fundamental spectroscopic and thermodynamic data of actinides and lanthanides

Accurately modeling optical spectra with absolute radiometric intensities is vital for nuclear forensics applications that depend on characterizing optical emissions from energetic nuclear phenomena. This requires precise knowledge of the individual atomic transition probabilities, known as Einstein A-coefficients, for each emission line. Obtaining these values theoretically or experimentally is often impractical due to the complex electronic structures and the number of transitions involved in atoms relevant to nuclear applications. In this study, we explore the use of machine learning to predict the Einstein A coefficients for atomic transitions. Seven models were evaluated that ranged from deep learning to decision tree algorithms, and found that gradient boosting performed best, specifically the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) architecture, achieving a precision of 86% across transitions of 36 elements. Furthermore, the model was cross-validated using published transition probabilities reported in the literature and applied to estimate Pu plasma temperatures from a previous experiment conducted at Savannah River National Laboratory.

Atomic spectroscopy↗
DOE OSTI2023

A new method for predicting hurricane rapid intensification based on co-occurring environmental parameters

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo Rapid Intensification (RI) can pose serious socioeconomic threats and can potentially result in major damaging impacts along coastal areas. Considering the complexity of various physical mechanisms that play a role in RI and its relatively low probability of occurrence, predicting RI remains a major operational challenge. In this study, we propose a simple deterministic binary classification model based on the co-occurrence of environmental parameters (MCE) to predict an RI event. More specifically, the model determines the possibility of RI based on a simple count of the number of environmental predictors deemed favorable and unfavorable. We compare our model results to logistic regression (LR) and decision tree (DT) models, well-trained using the same set of environmental predictors. Results reveal that at an RI threshold of 30 kt, the MCE exhibits a critical success index score of 0.233 which is 14% higher than DT and LR model performances. When tested at multiple RI thresholds, the MCE displays relatively higher skill scores across multiple metrics. By simultaneously evaluating the favorability of predictors, the MCE is able to comparatively reduce the number of false alarms predicted when certain predictors are unfavorable toward RI. Interpreting these model results to gain a physical understanding of how co-occurring environmental parameters can affect RI, we highlight future directions for using models based on the MCE approach to understand and predict TC RI as well as other meteorological extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the oxidation states of Mn ions in the oxygen-evolving complex of photosystem II using supervised and unsupervised machine learning

Abstract Serial Femtosecond Crystallography at the X-ray Free Electron Laser (XFEL) sources enabled the imaging of the catalytic intermediates of the oxygen evolution reaction of Photosystem II (PSII). However, due to the incoherent transition of the S-states, the resolved structures are a convolution from different catalytic states. Here, we train Decision Tree Classifier and K-means clustering models on Mn compounds obtained from the Cambridge Crystallographic Database to predict the S-state of the X-ray, XFEL, and CryoEM structures by predicting the Mn’s oxidation states in the oxygen-evolving complex. The model agrees mostly with the XFEL structures in the dark S 1 state. However, significant discrepancies are observed for the excited XFEL states (S 2 , S 3, and S 0 ) and the dark states of the X-ray and CryoEM structures. Furthermore, there is a mismatch between the predicted S-states within the two monomers of the same dimer, mainly in the excited states. We validated our model against other metalloenzymes, the valence bond model and the Mn spin densities calculated using density functional theory for two of the mismatched predictions of PSII. The model suggests designing a more optimized sample delivery and illumiation systems are crucial to precisely resolve the geometry of the advanced S-states to overcome the noncoherent S-state transition. In addition, significant radiation damage is observed in X-ray and CryoEM structures, particularly at the dangler Mn center (Mn4). Our model represents a valuable tool for investigating the electronic structure of the catalytic metal cluster of PSII to understand the water splitting mechanism.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

A novel improved model for building energy consumption prediction based on model integration

Building energy consumption prediction plays an irreplaceable role in energy planning, management, and conservation. Constantly improving the performance of prediction models is the key to ensuring the efficient operation of energy systems. Moreover, accuracy is no longer the only factor in revealing model performance, it is more important to evaluate the model from multiple perspectives, considering the characteristics of engineering applications. Based on the idea of model integration, this paper proposes a novel improved integration model (stacking model) that can be used to forecast building energy consumption. The stacking model combines advantages of various base prediction algorithms and forms them into “meta-features” to ensure that the final model can observe datasets from different spatial and structural angles. Two cases are used to demonstrate practical engineering applications of the stacking model. A comparative analysis is performed to evaluate the prediction performance of the stacking model in contrast with existing well-known prediction models including Random Forest, Gradient Boosted Decision Tree, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Machine, and K-Nearest Neighbor. The results indicate that the stacking method achieves better performance than other models, regarding accuracy (improvement of 9.5%–31.6% for Case A and 16.2%–49.4% for Case B), generalization (improvement of 6.7%–29.5% for Case A and 7.1%-34.6% for Case B), and robustness (improvement of 1.5%–34.1% for Case A and 1.8%–19.3% for Case B). The proposed model enriches the diversity of algorithm libraries of empirical models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantum computing based hybrid deep learning for fault diagnosis in electrical power systems

Quantum computing (QC) and deep learning have shown promise of supporting transformative advances and have recently gained popularity in a wide range of areas. Here, this paper proposes a hybrid QC-based deep learning framework for fault diagnosis of electrical power systems that combine the feature extraction capabilities of conditional restricted Boltzmann machine with an efficient classification of deep networks. Computational challenges stemming from the complexities of such deep learning models are overcome by QC-based training methodologies that effectively leverage the complementary strengths of quantum assisted learning and classical training techniques. The proposed hybrid QC-based deep learning framework is tested on a simulated electrical power system with 30 buses and wide variations of substation and transmission line faults, to demonstrate the framework’s applicability, efficiency, and generalization capabilities. High computational efficiency is enjoyed by the proposed hybrid approach in terms of computational effort required and quality of diagnosis performance over classical training methods. In addition, superior and reliable fault diagnosis performance with faster response time is achieved over state-of-the-art pattern recognition methods based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and decision trees (DT).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A combined machine learning and density functional theory study of binary Ti-Nb and Ti-Zr alloys: Stability and Young’s modulus

The multicomponent Ti alloys, specifically the -phase, have experienced a strong growth over the last decades, due to their outstanding properties of ultra-high strength and low Young’s modulus. These properties play a significant role in many aerospace and biomedical applications. Selection and optimization of multicomponent alloys is challenging due to the vast chemical and compositional space. Here we investigate the use of machine learning techniques informed by density functional calculations to guide the selection of Nb- and Zr-based Ti binary alloys. From the cubic structures obtained from high throughput calculations and literature, we identify several structures with Young’s moduli below 40 GPa. The multivariant decision tree methods provide efficient surrogate models to identify structure variables have high influences on the energetic stability and Young’s modulus. Furthermore, we implement a workflow of incorporating DFT provided results and machine learning method to explore the chemical and composition space of other binary and multicomponent alloys, to eventually accelerate the material design via taking advantages of identified key variables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Converting sWeights to probabilities with density ratios

The use of machine learning approaches continues to have many benefits in experimental nuclear and particle physics. One common issue is generating training data which is sufficiently realistic to give reliable results. Here we advocate using real experimental data as the source of training data and demonstrate how one might subtract background contributions through the use of probabilistic weights which can be readily applied to training data. The sPlot formalism is a common tool used to isolate distributions from different sources. However, the negative sWeights produced by the sPlot technique can cause training problems and poor predictive power. This article demonstrates how density ratio estimation can be applied to convert sWeights to event probabilities, which we call drWeights. The drWeights can then be applied to produce the distributions of interest and are consistent with direct use of the sWeights. This article will also show how decision trees are particularly well suited to convert sWeights, with the benefit of fast prediction rates and adaptability to aspects of experimental data such as the data sample size and proportions of different event sources. We also show that a density ratio product approach in which the initial drWeights are reweighted by an additional converter gives substantially better results.

Glazier, Derek I. [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field-based AFDD for refrigerant undercharge in residential HVAC systems: enhancing reliability through false alarm mitigation

This study evaluated rule-based and machine learning (ML) based automated fault detection and diagnostics (AFDD) algorithms for detecting refrigerant undercharge faults in residential heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, using actual building data and a minimal set of features. The ML-based algorithms included Decision Tree (DT) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). Both the rule-based and ML-based algorithms demonstrated the capability to detect refrigerant undercharge faults of -30% or more. Both types of algorithms exhibited false alarms before the implementation of a false alarm mitigation algorithm, which motivated the development of such a mitigation strategy. After applying the mitigation, false alarms were substantially reduced, with the rule-based algorithm decreasing to 0.6% and the ML-based algorithms reaching 0%, while maintaining strong detection performance. Although the rule-based algorithm initially showed lower performance compared to the ML-based algorithms, its detection accuracy improved after mitigation to a level comparable to the ML-based algorithms. These results confirm that combining false alarm mitigation with both rule-based and ML-based AFDD algorithms significantly enhances practical reliability while preserving robust fault detection capabilities. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate the potential for field deployment of these algorithms in residential HVAC systems and highlight the importance of minimizing false alarms.

False Alarm↗
DOE OSTI2025

Parallel sorting algorithm classification: is manual instrumentation necessary?

Understanding parallel algorithms is crucial for accelerating scientific simulations on complex, distributed memory, high-performance computers. Modern algorithm classification approaches learn semantics directly from source code to differentiate between algorithms, however, accessing source code is not always possible. We can learn about parallel algorithms from observing their performance, as programs running the same algorithms and using the same hardware should exhibit similar performance characteristics. We present an approach to learn algorithm classes from parallel performance data directly in order to classify algorithms without access to the source code. We extend previous work to enable classifying parallel sorting algorithms using automatic instrumentation instead of requiring manual region annotations in the source code. In this work, we design and demonstrate a study for classification of parallel sorting algorithms using parallel performance data collected from automatic instrumentation, and evaluate the performance of our new methodology on classification. We leverage Caliper to collect the performance data, Thicket for our exploratory data analysis (EDA), and PyTorch and Scikit-learn to evaluate the effectiveness of random forests, support vector machines (SVMs), decision trees, neural networks, and logistic regressions on parallel performance data. Additionally, we study noise in parallel performance data, whether the removal of noise and pre-processing of the data is necessary to accurately classify parallel sorting algorithms, and determine the effectiveness of features created from performance data. In conclusion, we demonstrate classification accuracy for these five different models of up to 97.7% across four different parallel algorithm classes.

Algorithm Classification↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding drivers of oil and gas well integrity issues in the greater wattenberg area of Colorado

Well integrity is critically important to maintain to minimize the environmental impacts of oil and gas development and other subsurface energy operations. The Wattenberg Field of Colorado—a top producing field with >40,000 wells—has one of the most robust publicly reported well integrity programs in the country. Here, in this study, we analyzed annular pressure and annular-fluid geochemical test results collected from Wattenberg wells through the end of 2019 to characterize the frequency and spatial variability of integrity issues in the field and understand their drivers. Estimated frequencies of integrity issues among tested wells were 8.2-17.1% between 1955 and 2019 and 6.1-11.4% in 2019 alone. The frequency of integrity issues was nearly four times greater in wells located above the Longmont Wrench Fault Zone. Potential drivers of integrity issues were identified using ensemble decision tree models trained with a broad set of relevant information. Models show that well integrity issues are spatially clustered on regional and sub-regional scales and suggest the relatively high frequency of integrity issues observed is likely attributed to geologic factors. These findings are valuable for regulatory agencies and operators seeking to inform well integrity monitoring, plugging, and emissions reduction efforts and design future subsurface energy projects.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparative study of machine learning models for predicting the state of reactive mixing

Mixing phenomena are important mechanisms controlling flow, species transport, and reaction processes in fluids and porous media. Accurate predictions of reactive mixing are critical for many Earth and environmental science problems such as contaminant fate and remediation, macroalgae growth, and plankton biomass evolution. Here, to investigate the evolution of mixing dynamics under different scenarios (e.g., anisotropy, fluctuating velocity fields), a finite-element-based numerical model was built to solve the fast, irreversible bimolecular reaction-diffusion equations to simulate a range of reactive-mixing scenarios. A total of 2,315 simulations were performed using different sets of model input parameters comprising various spatial scales of vortex structures in the velocity field, time-scales associated with velocity oscillations, the perturbation parameter for the vortex-based velocity, anisotropic dispersion contrast (i.e., ratio of longitudinal-to-transverse dispersion), and molecular diffusion. The outputs comprised concentration profiles of reactants and products. The inputs to and outputs from these simulations were concatenated into feature and label matrices, respectively, to train 20 different machine learning (ML) models intended to emulate system behavior. These 20 ML emulators, based on linear methods, Bayesian methods, ensemble learning methods, and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), were trained to classify the state of mixing and predict three quantities of interest (QoIs) characterizing species production, decay (i.e., average concentration, square of average concentration), and degree of mixing (i.e., variances of species concentration). Unsurprisingly, linear classifiers and regressors failed to reproduce the QoIs; however, ensemble methods (classifiers and regressors) and the MLP model accurately classified the state of reactive mixing and the QoIs. Among ensemble methods, random forest and decision-tree-based AdaBoost faithfully predicted the QoIs. At run time, trained ML emulators produced results times faster than the finite-element simulations. Due to their low computational expense and high accuracy, ensemble and MLP models are excellent emulators for these numerical simulations and great utilities in uncertainty quantification exercises, which can require 1,000s of forward model runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Segmentation and Classification of Fission as Pores in Reactor Irradiated Annular U–10Zr Metallic Fuel Using Machine Learning Models

Metallic fuels, particularly U—10Zr, are promising candidates for next-generation sodium-cooled fast reactors. Irradiation of nuclear fuels in reactors can lead to the formation of solid and gas fission product which subsequently forms microstructural pores, deteriorating fuel performance. Due to the massive amount of pores and complex phases formed, a quantitative description of fission gas pores is not yet available, preventing the development of microstructure-informed fuel performance modeling for fuel qualification. This paper applied a pre-trained deep learning model to ~10,260 high magnification scanning electron microscopy images. This method increased the accuracy of fission gas pore segmentation and allows statistical features to be extracted which cannot be achieved manually. A pre-trained decision tree model worked on the segemenation results and further classified the pores into different categories to produce a correlation between the pores, movement of lanthanides, and temperature gradient during irradiation. Finally, this paper emphasizes the potentials of machine learning models to accelerate fuel research, development, and qualification for advanced reactors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗