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At least 109 records · Page 6

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗

Remotely Operated Aircraft (ROA) Impact on the National Airspace System (NAS) Work Package: Data Modeling and Sharing Perspective for Development of a Common Operating Picture

This report documents analyses that were performed in support of Task #3 of Work Package #3 (WP3), ROA Impact on the NAS. The purpose of the overall work package was to determine if there are any serious issues that would prevent or prohibit ROA's flying in the NAS on a routine basis, and if so, what actions should be taken to address them. The purpose of Task #3 was to look at this problem from the perspective of data modeling and sharing.

Source record↗

Continuity of A Global, Satellite-Based Terrestrial Primary Productivity Dataset in the VIIRS Era Achieved With Model-Data Fusion

The NASA Terra and Aqua satellites have been successfully operating for over two decades and have far exceeded their original 5‐year design life. However, the era of NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) may be coming to a close as early as 2023. We conducted a comprehensive calibration and validation of the MODIS MOD17 product [1,2] and the potential for continuity of multi‐decadal ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP) and annual net primary productivity (NPP), using data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors aboard Suomi NPP and NOAA‐20. We combined an 18‐year record of eddy covariance flux tower measurements with hundreds of field measurements of NPP from the Oak Ridge National Laboratories Multi‐Biome collection to benchmark MODIS MOD17 Collection 6.1 (C61) and to develop the first terrestrial productivity estimates from VIIRS. Plant traits from the literature and the global TRY database [3,4] provide strong priors for identifying model parameters in a Bayesian model‐data fusion. As MODIS‐like observations are still needed for global environmental applications, the new VIIRS VNP17 product has the potential to extend these continuous estimates of global, terrestrial primary productivity beyond 2030.

K. Arthur Endsley↗

Evaluating the Impact of Agricultural Soil NOx Emissions on Air Quality Using Advanced Satellite, Ground-based, and Model Data

Soil moisture can also influence the concentration of atmospheric trace gases by moderating the emission of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) from agricultural fields. Human activities can play an important role in controlling the available soil moisture depending on irrigation demand and agricultural management. To further complicate matters, nitrogen fertilizer use has also been found to be a significant source of NOx emissions in agricultural areas. In fact, some of the highest emissions have been reported from fertilized soils in high-temperature agricultural regions, such as the Imperial Valley of California. Since NO2 is an important precursor to ozone formation in the troposphere, which is a leading cause of premature death in humans, it is critical to understand how natural and anthropogenic factors contribute to NOx emissions in these areas. O3 pollution is also a growing threat to global food security due to its detrimental impacts on crop production. This work uses a suite of satellite, ground-based, and model data to investigate how agricultural soil NOx emissions from natural (rainfall) and anthropogenic factors (irrigation, nitrogen fertilizer) govern air quality over California. We evaluate the capabilities of using SMAP retrievals and SMAP Land Information System (LIS) output for monitoring irrigation activities over the major agricultural areas of California by conducting intensive analyses of soil moisture and precipitation data. High-resolution trace gas observations from the new generation TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) sensor are used to characterize and monitor the variability of trace gases and air quality conditions associated with soil NOx emissions. We also synthesize satellite, ground-based, and agriculture data to estimate the separate contributions from rainfall, irrigation, and nitrogen fertilizer practices on soil NOx emissions and associated air quality conditions. Finally, unprecedented hourly trace gas retrievals from the NASA Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO) geostationary satellite sensor are used to monitor the diurnal evolution of NO2 and O3 concentrations from soil NOx emissions.

Aaron R Naeger↗

The Simulation of a Jumbo Jet Transport Aircraft. Volume 2: Modeling Data

The manned simulation of a large transport aircraft is described. Aircraft and systems data necessary to implement the mathematical model described in Volume I and a discussion of how these data are used in model are presented. The results of the real-time computations in the NASA Ames Research Center Flight Simulator for Advanced Aircraft are shown and compared to flight test data and to the results obtained in a training simulator known to be satisfactory.

Hanke, C. R.↗

Utah FORGE: 2024 Discrete Fracture Network Model Data

The Utah FORGE 2024 Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Model dataset provides a set of files representing discrete fracture network modeling for the FORGE site near Milford, Utah. The dataset includes four distinct DFN model file sets, each corresponding to different time frames and modeling approaches in 2024. These models characterize both natural and induced fractures in the geothermal reservoir, which consists of crystalline granitic and metamorphic rock approximately 8,000 feet below the ground surface. The dataset includes a reference DFN model from February 2024 that incorporates planar fractures and well trajectories, as well as upscaled permeability, porosity, compressibility, and storage values on specified grids. Additionally, there are models based on new microseismic (MEQ) data from May and July 2024, including fracture planes fitted to the latest MEQ catalog datasets, tensile fractures from hydraulic stimulation, and an alternative connected DFN for modeling purposes. Coordinate data is provided in both global and local frames, with detailed instructions on the transformations used to align with principal stress orientations. The dataset also includes notes and calculation files for estimating fracture sizes and differences between various fracture sets. There are subfolders for Global Coordinates and Local Coordinates. To move from the global to the local coordinate frame, fractures and wells were a) rotated 20 degrees counterclockwise looking down about the global point (335376.400482041, 4263189.99998761, 250.093546450195) to better align with the principal stresses; and b) translated by (-335408.68, -4263010.9, 1150). Upscaled permeability values using the _XYZ suffix show directions with respect to the global XYZ coordinate frame, while those using the _IJK suffix are aligned with local coordinate frame.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Learjet 25D Jet Noise Flyover Measurements: Comparisons with Scale-Model Data

Continued interest in commercial supersonic flight has highlighted the need for accurate jet-noise predictions as jet noise is expected to be a dominant noise source for aircraft takeoff conditions. The current study compares the acoustic spectra obtained from a scale-model investigation to that from a Learjet 25D flyover test. Reasonable agreement was achieved between the scale-model and flight data in both peak level and frequency when the physical scale factor for the scale-model was increased by roughly 6%. The peak perceived noise levels (PNL) for the flight data were between 1.29 dB and 1.65 dB higher than those for the scale model. The roll-off of PNL with time for large emission angles was greater for the flight data than for the scale-model data. Using a distributed source model for shear-layer-refraction corrections to the scale-model data slightly improved comparisons to flight data at low frequencies for emission angles near 70° and between 110° and 130°. Distributed source models had no impact on the scale-model spectra near the peak jet-noise angle. Applying a stretching factor to the distributed source models to capture the effects of a flight stream had a very limited impact on the computed spectra.

Acoustics↗

Block Island Acoustic Propagation Modeling Data

This dataset contains acoustic propagation model outputs, computational subroutines, and analysis tools for underwater sound propagation in the Block Island region, including parabolic equation (PE) model results, visualization products, and comprehensive modeling software tools.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Real-Time Dynamic Modeling - Data Information Requirements and Flight Test Results

Practical aspects of identifying dynamic models for aircraft in real time were studied. Topics include formulation of an equation-error method in the frequency domain to estimate non-dimensional stability and control derivatives in real time, data information content for accurate modeling results, and data information management techniques such as data forgetting, incorporating prior information, and optimized excitation. Real-time dynamic modeling was applied to simulation data and flight test data from a modified F-15B fighter aircraft, and to operational flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft. Estimated parameter standard errors and comparisons with results from a batch output-error method in the time domain were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the identified real-time models.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Real-Time Dynamic Modeling - Data Information Requirements and Flight Test Results

Practical aspects of identifying dynamic models for aircraft in real time were studied. Topics include formulation of an equation-error method in the frequency domain to estimate non-dimensional stability and control derivatives in real time, data information content for accurate modeling results, and data information management techniques such as data forgetting, incorporating prior information, and optimized excitation. Real-time dynamic modeling was applied to simulation data and flight test data from a modified F-15B fighter aircraft, and to operational flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft. Estimated parameter standard errors, prediction cases, and comparisons with results from a batch output-error method in the time domain were used to demonstrate the accuracy of the identified real-time models.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Hydrologic Model Data for the East Fork Poplar Creek Watershed Simulated with the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS): Streamflow and Network Expansion–Contraction Dynamics

This dataset supports hydrologic modeling and stream network expansion–contraction analysis for the East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) Watershed in Tennessee. It includes a Jupyter notebook for model setup, model configuration files, simulation outputs, and derived products used to evaluate model performance and investigate stream dynamics under varying hydrologic conditions. The dataset was generated using the Watershed Workflow Python package and the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), enabling integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic simulations using a stream-aligned mesh. Outputs include high-resolution time series of streamflow, active network length, water table depth, and related hydrologic variables. Also included are spatially explicit stream persistency indices and classifications of reaches as perennial or non-perennial. These data facilitate reproducibility and support further research on stream intermittency and variability in network extent.The model data archive is organized in following directories:1) model_setup_inputsContains the Watershed Workflow Jupyter notebooks (accessed through any open source code editor), selected input datasets, and resulting ATS input files, including XML files (access through any open source code editor), computational mesh (.exo files can be viewed using Paraview), and meteorological forcing files (.h5 files can be accessed through h5py python package and HDFView open source software). 2) model_outputsIncludes ATS simulation outputs relevant to this study. Time series of spatially integrated or averaged variables (e.g., streamflow, water table depth) are provided as CSV files. Select spatial fields (e.g., ponded depth and water table depth) are saved as pickled Python objects to reduce file size, and can be accessed through pickle package in Python. Key geometry objects from Watershed Workflow—such as the surface mesh and river tree—are also included to support analysis of streamflow persistency and expansion–contraction dynamics. These files can also be accessed through Watershed Workflow Python package.3) model_evaluationProvides observed streamflow time series and field survey-based flow regime classifications used to evaluate model performance. Jupyter notebooks for processing ATS outputs and comparing model predictions with observations to build confidence in the model prior to scientific analysis are also included.4) Q_L_relationshipsContains workflows for generating time series of discharge, active network length, and related hydrologic variables used in the stream network expansion–contraction analysis. Includes routines for delineating baseflow-dominated periods. For each catchment, notebooks and processed data (as pickled DataFrames accessed through Pandas Python package) are provided. 5) figure_scriptsProvides the Jupyter notebooks used to generate the figures presented in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Northern Pacific Turbulence Intensity Model Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the lidar buoys sites off the coast of California (Humboldt and Morro Bay). The simulated data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observed quantities. The simulations were carried out for the north Pacific region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles near the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Gulf of Mexico Turbulence Intensity Model Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars. The simulated data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observed quantities. The simulations were carried out for the Gulf of Mexico region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles near the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Data-model files associated with the manuscript "Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California"

This package contains the data, simulation setups, notebooks and figures used in “Modeling the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Coastal Hydrology: A Case Study of Elkhorn Slough Watershed, California” (Xu et al., 2025). In this study, we selected Elkhorn Slough, a tidal estuary, in California, to investigate the impact of wetland restoration and sea level rise on coastal hydrology using the process-based coastal hydrologic model, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), informed by site-specific data. We designed a novel modeling workflow for incorporating wetland restoration features into land cover and soil properties for the model parameterization. The validation results demonstrate a strong agreement between modeled and observed data. We studied the characteristics of coastal watershed hydrology, then focused on the surface water dynamics at two wetland sites within Elkhorn Slough, a reference site and a restored site. Our simulation results indicate that the restored site successfully maintains surface elevation, resulting in reduced surface inundation. We also examined the impact of wetland restoration under expected sea level rise over the next few decades. The low-lying Yampah Marsh, the reference site, is likely to be inundated due to future sea level rise when highest tides arrive; while a higher percentage of Hester Marsh, the restored site, would retain marsh vegetation in coming decades, regardless of tidal conditions. Our study provides important information for examining the outcome of restoration practices that include surface elevation in tidal wetlands under climate changes.Several files can be found from this data package.1. README.md: This file describes the title, journal, co-authors, abstract, repository structure and model version.2. Simulation_Setups.zip: The file contains the model configuration files (XML format) for ATS. 3. Notebooks.zip: The file contains the Jupyter notebooks for generating the pre- and post-restoration meshes and the meshes of future scenarios. 4. Figures.zip: The file contains the figures used in the manuscript.5. Data.zip: The file contains the data used to drive the model simulations, including watershed and wetlands boundaries, mesh files and references to additional datasets (e.g., meteorological forcing, tidal dataset, DEMs, land cover, soil properties). Also, it contains water level observations at the restored wetland.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerial and Processed Model Data Representing As-built Conditions in Coastal Port Arthur, Texas in May 2025

This dataset was collected by the Co-Design Team of the Southeast Texas Urban Integrated Field Lab, a research initiative led by the University of Texas at Austin and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. The broader project focuses on developing climate-resilient design solutions for the Beaumont–Port Arthur region, with more information available at www.setx-uifl.org. Our team conducted aerial surveys of the Port Arthur coastal neighborhood in May 2025, before the start of construction scheduled for Summer 2026. These pre-construction datasets are designed to facilitate comparative analyses, including pre- and post-construction assessments and simulated inundation scenario evaluations. Aerial images were captured using DroneDeploy autonomous flight systems, with imagery processed through the DroneDeploy engine. All original aerial photographs are provided in JPG format and organized in zipped folders by area. The processed data package includes: 3D surface models Orthomosaics Geospatial and topographic mappings Point clouds For guidance on file contents, structure, and recommended usage, please refer to the included README file.

2D mapping↗

Model data for Flood Frequency Analysis using Stochastic Storm Transposition and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model

This archived provides scripts and input files used for the implementation of a novel approach to conduct process-based Flood Frequency Analysis using a Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM). As a proof-of-concept, this study uses the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct flood frequency analysis by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a ~2000 km2 Southeast Texas watershed.The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include TXT, CSV, DAT, SBATCH, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model and RainyDay model have .XML and .SST extensions, respectively, and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.This archive contains:* Scripts and data files essential for generating the ATS model input. It uses the Watershed Workflow package to produce both mesh and ATS input files. * Jupyter notebooks designated for the ATS model evaluation, covering both long-term simulations and 40 rainfall-runoff events.* Input files required to simulate SST storm events using RainyDay.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward a New Generation of Agricultural System Data, Models, and Knowledge Products: State of Agricultural Systems Science

We review the current state of agricultural systems science, focusing in particular on the capabilities and limitations of agricultural systems models. We discuss the state of models relative to five different Use Cases spanning field, farm, landscape, regional, and global spatial scales and engaging questions in past, current, and future time periods. Contributions from multiple disciplines have made major advances relevant to a wide range of agricultural system model applications at various spatial and temporal scales. Although current agricultural systems models have features that are needed for the Use Cases, we found that all of them have limitations and need to be improved. We identified common limitations across all Use Cases, namely 1) a scarcity of data for developing, evaluating, and applying agricultural system models and 2) inadequate knowledge systems that effectively communicate model results to society. We argue that these limitations are greater obstacles to progress than gaps in conceptual theory or available methods for using system models. New initiatives on open data show promise for addressing the data problem, but there also needs to be a cultural change among agricultural researchers to ensure that data for addressing the range of Use Cases are available for future model improvements and applications. We conclude that multiple platforms and multiple models are needed for model applications for different purposes. The Use Cases provide a useful framework for considering capabilities and limitations of existing models and data.

Livestock models↗