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At least 109 records · Page 6

The exercise and environmental physiology of extravehicular activity

Extravehicular activity (EVA), i.e., exercise performed under unique environmental conditions, is indispensable for supporting daily living in weightlessness and for further space exploration. From 1965-1996 an average of 20 h x yr(-1) were spent performing EVA. International Space Station (ISS) assembly will require 135 h x yr(-1) of EVA, and 138 h x yr(-1) is planned for post-construction maintenance. The extravehicular mobility unit (EMU), used to protect astronauts during EVA, has a decreased pressure of 4.3 psi that could increase astronauts' risk of decompression sickness (DCS). Exercise in and repeated exposure to this hypobaria may increase the incidence of DCS, although weightlessness may attenuate this risk. Exercise thermoregulation within the EMU is poorly understood; the liquid cooling garment (LCG), worn next to the skin and designed to handle thermal stress, is manually controlled. Astronauts may become dehydrated (by up to 2.6% of body weight) during a 5-h EVA, further exacerbating the thermoregulatory challenge. The EVA is performed mainly with upper body muscles; but astronauts usually exercise at only 26-32% of their upper body maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). For a given ground-based work task in air (as opposed to water), the submaximal VO2 is greater while VO2max and metabolic efficiency are lower during ground-based arm exercise as compared with leg exercise, and cardiovascular responses to exercise and training are also different for arms and legs. Preflight testing and training, whether conducted in air or water, must account for these differences if ground-based data are extrapolated for flight requirements. Astronauts experience deconditioning during microgravity resulting in a 10-20% loss in arm strength, a 20-30% loss in thigh strength, and decreased lower-body aerobic exercise capacity. Data from ground-based simulations of weightlessness such as bed rest induce a 6-8% decrease in upper-body strength, a 10-16% loss in thigh extensor strength, and a 15-20% decrease in lower-body aerobic exercise capacity. Changes in EVA support systems and training based on a greater understanding of the physiological aspects of exercise in the EVA environment will help to insure the health, safety, and efficiency of working astronauts.

Review↗

The accuracy of far-field noise obtained by the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data

Results are described of an analytical study of the accuracy and limitations of a technique that permits the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data to far-field conditions. The effects of the following variables on predictive accuracy of the far-field pressure were examined: (1) number of near-field microphones; (2) length of source distribution; (3) complexity of near-field and far-field distributions; (4) source-to-microphone distance; and (5) uncertainties in microphone data and imprecision in the location of the near-field microphones. It is shown that the most important parameters describing predictive accuracy are the number of microphones, the ratio of source length to acoustic wavelength, (L/wavelength), and the error in location of near-field microphones. If microphone measurement and location errors are not included, then far-field pressures can be accurately predicted up to L/wavelength values of 15 using approximately 50 microphones. For maximum microphone location errors of + or - 1 cm, only an accuracy of + or - 2-1/2 db can be attained with approximately 40 microphones for the highest L/wavelength of 10.

Ahtye, W. F.↗

The accuracy of far-field noise obtained by the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data

Results are presented for an analytical study of the accuracy and limitations of a technique that permits the mathematical extrapolation of near-field noise data to far-field conditions. The effects of the following variables on predictive accuracy of the far-field pressure were examined: (1) number of near-field microphones; (2) length of source distribution; (3) complexity of near-field and far-field distributions; (4) source-to-microphone distance; and (5) uncertainties in microphone data and imprecision in the location of the near-field microphones. It is shown that the most important parameters describing predictive accuracy are the number of microphones, the ratio of source length to acoustic wavelength (L/lambda), and the error in location of near-field microphones. For maximum microphone location errors of plus or minus 1 cm, only an accuracy of plus or minus 2.5 dB can be attained with approximately 40 microphones for the highest L/lambda of 10.

Ahtye, W. F.↗

Nuclear masses learned from a probabilistic neural network

Machine learning methods and uncertainty quantification have been gaining interest throughout the last several years in low-energy nuclear physics. In particular, Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have increasingly been applied to improve mass model predictions while providing well-quantified uncertainties. In this work, we use the probabilistic Mixture Density Network (MDN) to directly predict the mass excess of the 2016 Atomic Mass Evaluation within the range of measured data, and we extrapolate the inferred models beyond available experimental data. The MDN provides not only mean values but also full posterior distributions both within the training set and extrapolated testing set. We show that the addition of physical information to the feature space increases the accuracy of the match to the training data as well as provides for more physically meaningful extrapolations beyond the the limits of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

First Principle based Thermal Conductivity Modeling of Metal Alloys with Applications on Uranium Alloys

Thermal conductivity is an important materials property related to heat transport, which is essential to many applications, ranging from thermoelectrics to nuclear reactor materials. High- quality thermal conductivity data is critical to these materials and their associated technologies, including the nuclear fuel materials like traditional oxide fuels and metallic uranium (U) fuels, e.g. U-Zr and U-Mo alloys. And thermal conductivity modeling is widely used to interpolate or extrapolate experimental data, to obtain high-quality thermal conductivity data over wide temperature and composition range, and to understand the impacts of different factors including defects and microstructures. However, a general thermal conductivity model for metal alloys which can work regrading different phase components is still missing. Also, for U alloys, a thermal conductivity model working with different phases is needed. Therefore, in this work, we developed thermal conductivity models for metal alloys, based on ab-initio calculations, semi-classical physics rules, and limited experimental data. The goals of these models are to help obtain high- quality thermal conductivity data within a little experimental input as possible, have models that are extendable to varying microstructures, including different types of irradiation effects, and provide mechanistic understanding of heat transfer in the modeled alloys. In this work, our model solves several challenges in the development. The DFT-BTE approach is applied to decrease the reliance on experimental data and make the model extendable to composition changes and defects. A practical and efficient way to combine the DFT inputs with physics rules is pointed out in this work too. A staged approach, which starts from simple cases of elemental metals, then extends to solid solutions, different compound phases, and multi-phase mixtures, is presented to work with the metal alloys in different phase components. Our models are demonstrated respectively on aU for elemental metal model, on U-Zr and U-Mo alloys in aU temperature range for multi-phase mixture model, on high-temperature U-Zr, U-Nb, and U-Mo alloys in the body-centered cubic phase for concentrated solid solution model, and on irradiated U-Mo alloys for irradiated metal alloy model. All models show great agreement with experimental data. In these demonstrations, our model shows its advantages compared to previous empirical fitting model. Our model requires fewer experimental data, due to the inputs from DFT. The quantitative insights into the different physical factors are provided in our model, as it incorporates the electron and phonon scattering mechanisms. Our model also can be extended to incorporate the contributions of point defects, grain boundaries, and noble gas bubbles, to integrate their effects on heat transfer. This model can serve as both a foundation for understanding the more complex thermal conductivity of realistic U alloy fuels and a useful tool to guide further modeling of thermal conductivity to aid materials and device design.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Data-Driven Machine Learning Models in Nuclear Engineering Applications: Where We Are and What Do We Need?

Machine learning (ML) has been leveraged to tackle a diverse range of tasks in almost all branches of nuclear engineering. Many of the successes in ML applications can be attributed to the recent performance breakthroughs in deep learning, the growing availability of computational power, data, and easy-to-use ML libraries. However, these empirical successes have often outpaced our formal understanding of the ML algorithms. An important but under-rated area is uncertainty quantification (UQ) of ML. ML-based models are subject to approximation uncertainty when they are used to make predictions, due to sources including but not limited to, data noise, data coverage, extrapolation, imperfect model architecture and the stochastic training process. The goal of this paper is to clearly explain and illustrate the importance of UQ of ML. We will elucidate the differences in the basic concepts of UQ of physics-based models and data-driven ML models. Various sources of uncertainties in physical modeling and data-driven modeling will be discussed, demonstrated, and compared. We will also present and demonstrate a few techniques to quantify the ML prediction uncertainties, including Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, Bayesian neural networks, Gaussian Processes and conformal prediction. Lastly, we will discuss the need for building a verification, validation and UQ framework to establish ML credibility.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

$J/\psi $-p scattering length from the total and differential photoproduction cross sections

The J/ψ-p scattering length, αJ/ψp, can be extracted from the J/ψ photoproduction cross section near threshold using the Vector Meson Dominance (VMD) model to relate the reaction γp→J/ψp to J/ψp→J/ψp. Such estimates based on experimental data result in values for |αJ/ψp|, which are much lower than most of the theoretical predictions. In this work, we study the relations between the different results, depending on the use of the total or the differential cross sections, and the method of extrapolating the data to threshold in the case of a low-statistics data sample, such as the near threshold J/ψ photoproduction dataset. We estimate a range for |αJ/ψp| of 0.003–0.025 fm as extracted from experimental data within the VMD model and discuss possible reasons for such lower values compared to the theoretical results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

On the determination of laminar flame speeds from stretched flames

The effects of stretch on the determination of the laminar flame speed are experimentally studied by using the positively-stretched stagnation flame and negatively-stretched bunsen flame, and by using lean and rich mixtures of methane, propane, butane, and hydrogen with air whose effective Lewis numbers are either greater or less than unity. Results demonstrate that flame speed determination can be influenced by stretch through two factors: (1) Preferential diffusion which tends to increase or decrease the flame temperature and burning rate depending on the effective Lewis number, and (2) Flow divergence which causes the flame speed to assume higher values when evaluated at the upstream boundary of the preheat zone instead of the reaction zone. Recent data on flame speed including the present ones are then examined from the unified viewpoint of flame stretch, leading to satisfactory resolution of the discrepancies between them. The present study also proposes a methodology of determining the laminar flame speeds by using the stagnation flame and linearly extrapolating the data to zero stretch rate.

Wu, C. K.↗

Turbine blade tip and seal clearance excitation forces

Experimental and theoretical work done as Phase 3 of a program sponsored by MSFC to investigate the magnitude, origin, and parametric variations of destabilizing forces which arise in high power turbines due to blade-tip leakage effects are described. The two facilities which were built for this purpose are first described. The larger one is a closed, 2 atm pressurized Freon-12 flow loop in which is installed a 1:1 replica of the SSME first stage hydrogen turbine, which can be driven by the flow, and which generates about 14 KW of power into a load-absorbing DC generator. The smaller facility is used to measure the forces on labyrinth seals of the same type as those used in our turbine tests with a shrouded turbine. The seals can be kinematically whirled and spun (independently), and the inlet swirl can be set to a variety of values. Air is the working fluid (with atmospheric discharge) and the data are real-time pressure distributions in the seal glands. The five different unshrouded turbine configurations were tested with static offsets, plus one with a shroud band and a two-ridge seal. Theoretical models of various degrees of complexity were developed to help interpreting and extrapolating the data. The notion of partial work done by the fluid leaking through the tip gaps was put on a quantitative basis by examining the leakage vortex roll-up dynamics. This was used to obtain a theory of the work loss due to a uniform gap. Perturbation and multiple scale arguments were then used to extend this to the case of an eccentric turbine. This yields an unsteady, 3-D theory which can predict the distribution of the approach flow, and its effect on work defect, cross-forces, pressure patterns, and dynamic damping. The predictions agree qualitatively with the data and exhibit the correct trends, but the cross-forces are generally under-predicted.

Martinez-Sanchez, M.↗

Critical analysis of nitramine decomposition data: Activation energies and frequency factors for HMX and RDX decomposition

A summary of a literature review on thermal decomposition of HMX and RDX is presented. The decomposition apparently fits first order kinetics. Recommended values for Arrhenius parameters for HMX and RDX decomposition in the gaseous and liquid phases and for decomposition of RDX in solution in TNT are given. The apparent importance of autocatalysis is pointed out, as are some possible complications that may be encountered in interpreting extending or extrapolating kinetic data for these compounds from measurements carried out below their melting points to the higher temperatures and pressure characteristic of combustion.

Schroeder, M. A.↗

Synthetic galaxy clusters and observations based on Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data

ABSTRACT We develop a novel data-driven method for generating synthetic optical observations of galaxy clusters. In cluster weak lensing, the interplay between analysis choices and systematic effects related to source galaxy selection, shape measurement, and photometric redshift estimation can be best characterized in end-to-end tests going from mock observations to recovered cluster masses. To create such test scenarios, we measure and model the photometric properties of galaxy clusters and their sky environments from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data in two bins of cluster richness $\lambda \in [30; 45)$, $\lambda \in [45; 60)$ and three bins in cluster redshift ($z\in [0.3; 0.35)$, $z\in [0.45; 0.5)$ and $z\in [0.6; 0.65)$. Using deep-field imaging data, we extrapolate galaxy populations beyond the limiting magnitude of DES Y3 and calculate the properties of cluster member galaxies via statistical background subtraction. We construct mock galaxy clusters as random draws from a distribution function, and render mock clusters and line-of-sight catalogues into synthetic images in the same format as actual survey observations. Synthetic galaxy clusters are generated from real observational data, and thus are independent from the assumptions inherent to cosmological simulations. The recipe can be straightforwardly modified to incorporate extra information, and correct for survey incompleteness. New realizations of synthetic clusters can be created at minimal cost, which will allow future analyses to generate the large number of images needed to characterize systematic uncertainties in cluster mass measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Simulation of EAS properties on the basis of high energy interaction model deduced from the accelerator data

Calculations of extensive air showers in atmosphere were performed using formulae describing p-p and p-air nucleus interactions. The formulae fitted to the accelerator data were extrapolated taking the same trend up to 10 to the 16 eV. Above that energy it was assumed that the degree of scaling violating/alpha-parameter/ is saturating or even decreasing. The latter assumption follows from earlier work where it was found that without this restriction shower maxima at the highest energies are located too high in the atmosphere. Results of calculations have been compared with experimental data. The comparison was made separately for the curves obtained from the so called equal intensity cuts and for the Cerenkov data.

Kubiak, G.↗

Sonic boom predictions for three generic models using a solution-adaptive full-potential code

The TranAir full-potential code, which utilizes a solution-adaptive, unstructured Cartesian grid, was used to compute near-field pressure signatures of three generic supersonic configurations: a cone-cylinder, a low aspect ratio rectangular wing, and a delta-wing/body. TranAir pressure signatures are extrapolated to near- and mid-field distances using a quasi-linear extrapolation technique. Results are compared with existing wind tunnel data and, where possible, with extrapolated experimental data and quasi-linear Whitham-method results. In general, the extrapolated TranAir data is in good agreement with experimental and Whitham-method pressure signatures, but peak pressures are slightly under-predicted. It is thought that computed data obtained too near to the model was the main reason for the discrepancies. Flow-field grid structure was also found to be important in obtaining accurate offbody data.

Madson, Michael D.↗

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗

Improving air leakage prediction of buildings using the fan pressurization method with the Weighted Line of Organic Correlation

In many countries, the fan pressurization method is the most frequently chosen approach for measuring the air leakage of houses. The measurements are usually performed at pressures that far exceed pressures to which buildings are exposed to under normal conditions. A fit of these tests to the power-law formulation allows an extrapolation to data points outside the measured pressure range. With the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) fitting method, the pressure exponent and flow coefficient can be determined. However, the measurement results are highly sensitive to uncertainties induced by external factors like changing wind conditions during the tests, which is neglected by OLS. This may lead to errors in the prediction of flows at lower pressures. The Weighted Line of Organic Correlation (WLOC) is an alternative approach and takes measurement uncertainty into account. In this paper, a statistical analysis of an extensive data set of pressurization measurements has been performed. Both regression techniques have been compared for almost 7500 fan pressurization measurements of six houses in 109 different house leak configurations. The variability in predicting pressure exponent and flow coefficient for both WLOC and OLS regression was analyzed using probability density functions. It was found that the Weighted Line of Organic Correlation significantly decreases the uncertainty in predicting pressure exponent, flow coefficient, and other low-pressure air leakage metrics compared to the Ordinary Least Square fitting. Here, the authors highly recommend the implementation of WLOC in current measurement standards and test equipment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Crystallization Mechanisms of Poly(vinylidene Fluoride- co -chlorotrifluoroethylene): Nucleation Transitions, Growth Kinetics, and Microstructure Evolution

The crystallization kinetics of FK-800, a commercial semicrystalline copolymer of chlorotrifluoroethylene and vinylidene fluoride (poly(CTFE-co-VDF)), dictate its microstructure and functional performance. Crystallization occurs between the glass transition (T g ≈ 31 °C) and melting point (T m ≈ 110 °C), with grain boundaries playing a key role in applications such as memristors, where they regulate filament growth. This study integrates in situ atomic force microscopy (AFM), grazing-incidence wide-angle X-ray scattering (GIWAXS), and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) to characterize nucleation, growth, and morphology across the full crystallization window. Hot-stage AFM reveals a transition from homogeneous to heterogeneous nucleation near 45 °C and a shift from reaction-limited to diffusion-limited growth above 60 °C. Kinetics are analyzed using Lauritzen–Hoffman, Turnbull–Fisher, and Avrami models to extract surface free energies and activation barriers. A multiscale modeling framework is developed in which nucleation densities and growth rates measured by AFM are used to reconstruct Avrami kinetics, which are then validated against coverage data, and extrapolated to predict bulk crystallization behavior observed by DSC. GIWAXS confirms a primarily flat-on chain orientation at all temperatures, linking orientation to domain morphology. This integrative approach quantitatively connects nanoscale crystallization dynamics with macroscopic phase evolution, establishing a quantitative framework for modeling crystallization across time, temperature, and length scales.

Crystallization↗