SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.
Liquid rocket engine combustion stability assessments are traditionally broken into three categories: dynamic stability, spontaneous stability, and rough combustion. This work focuses on comparing the spontaneous stability and rough combustion assessments for several liquid engine programs. The techniques used are those developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for the J-2X Workhorse Gas Generator program. Stability assessment data from the Integrated Powerhead Demonstrator (IPD), FASTRAC, and Common Extensible Cryogenic Engine (CECE) programs are compared against previously processed J-2X Gas Generator data. Prior metrics for spontaneous stability assessments are updated based on the compilation of all data sets.
Data Systems Dynamic Simulation is a simulation system designed to reduce cost and time and increase the confidence and comprehensiveness of Data Systems Simulation. It is designed to simulate large data processing and communications systems from end-to-end or by subsystem. Those features relevant to system timing, control, sizing, personnel support activities, cost and external influences are modeled. Emphasis is placed on ease of use, comprehensive system performance measures, and extensive post simulation analysis capability. The system has been used to support trade studies of the NASA data system needs in the 1985 to 1990 time frame.
The NASA Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission is a constellation of small satellites carrying state-of-art microwave temperature and humidity sounders with 12 channels between 91 GHz and 205 GHz frequency. Including TROPICS-pathfinder, launched on 30 June 2021, five TROPICS satellites operate and provide temperature and humidity data to NWP and atmospheric retrieval communities. This study evaluates the quality of radiance data from these five satellites. It assesses data impacts on NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global NWP analysis and forecasts while seeking answers to the following key questions: 1. What information do TROPICS satellites bring to NWP analysis? 2. How will TROPICS data assimilation affect NWP forecasts, including tropical cyclone analysis and forecasts? 3. What are the benefits of having multiple TROPICS satellites in NWP forecasts? 4. What are the weaknesses regarding instrument stability, consistency, and data quality of these CubeSats? 5. Can multiple TROPICS make similar impacts as conventional MW sensors such as ATMS or GPM Microwave Imager (GMI)? The sensitivities of each TROPICS channel to temperature, water vapor, cloud, and precipitation are examined in various weather conditions. Results from observing system experiments assimilating TROPICS radiance are used for evaluation metrics, including forecast skills and fit to other observations such as radiosondes and microwave and infrared sounders. Finally, the lessons learned from using these cube satellite radiance data in the GEOS atmospheric data assimilation system are shared.
This viewgraph presentation reviews the contributions by the Rapid Prototyping Capability (RPC) towards using Visible Infrared Imager / Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) data in assessing the damage to forests. The Healthy Forest Restoration Act of 2003 mandates development of national Early Warning System (EWS) for forest threat monitoring and mitigation. NASA Stennis is working with the US Forest Service to develop needed components of this EWS. The use of MODIS data for monitoring forest disturbance at broad regional scales is a componet of this program. This RPC experiment was initiated to assess potential of the MODIS follow-on, VIIRS, for monitoring forest disturbance at broad scales and thereby contributing to the EWS. This presentation reviews the potential use of the VIIRS to examine the damage to forests caused by gyspy moths in the West Virginia and Virginia area.
This presentation demonstrates a spatial analysis workflow to assess data availability for the many components of geologic carbon storage technical viability. The workflow relies upon a knowledge-data framework that links the different components of GCS technical viability to the data types needed for evaluation. Using this contextual information, a combination of data science methods (e.g., natural language processing) and spatial analyses are applied to identify areas where sufficient data exists for a given component. The results are aggregated into maps illustrating data density and spatial gaps across all technical viability factors and data categories, as well as the individual component and category level for a more nuanced understanding. Presented at the FECM NETL Carbon Management Program Review Meeting 2024.
This presentation demonstrates a spatial analysis workflow to assess data availability for the many components of geologic carbon storage technical viability. The workflow relies upon a knowledge-data framework that links the different components of GCS technical viability to the data types needed for evaluation. Using this contextual information, a combination of data science methods (e.g., natural language processing) and spatial analyses are applied to identify areas where sufficient data exists for a given component. The results are aggregated into maps illustrating data density and spatial gaps across all technical viability factors and data categories, as well as the individual component and category level for a more nuanced understanding. Presented at the Geological Society of America Connects 2024 Annual Meeting in Anaheim, California, 22-25 September 2024.
A collaborative design process utilizing Probabilistic Data Assessment (PDA) is showcased. Given the limitation of financial resources by both the government and industry, strategic decision makers need more than just traditional point designs, they need to be aware of the likelihood of these future designs to meet their objectives. This uncertainty, an ever-present character in the design process, can be embraced through a probabilistic design environment. A conceptual design process is presented that encapsulates the major engineering disciplines for a Third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV). Toolsets consist of aerospace industry standard tools in disciplines such as trajectory, propulsion, mass properties, cost, operations, safety, and economics. Variations of the design process are presented that use different fidelities of tools. The disciplinary engineering models are used in a collaborative engineering framework utilizing Phoenix Integration's ModelCenter and AnalysisServer environment. These tools allow the designer to join disparate models and simulations together in a unified environment wherein each discipline can interact with any other discipline. The design process also uses probabilistic methods to generate the system level output metrics of interest for a RLV conceptual design. The specific system being examined is the Advanced Concept Rocket Engine 92 (ACRE-92) RLV. Previous experience and knowledge (in terms of input uncertainty distributions from experts and modeling and simulation codes) can be coupled with Monte Carlo processes to best predict the chances of program success.
Data on the spaceflight communications equipment status during the Skylab mission were subjected to an operational reliability assessment. Reliability models were revised to reflect pertinent equipment changes accomplished prior to the beginning of the Skylab missions. Appropriate adjustments were made to fit the data to the models. The availabilities are based on the failure events resulting in the stations inability to support a function of functions and the MTBF's are based on all events including 'can support' and 'cannot support'. Data were received from eleven land-based stations and one ship.
The overall purpose of the survey was to provide real world data on user requirements. The intent was to assess data collection system user requirements by questioning actual potential users rather than speculating on requirements. The end results of the survey are baseline requirements models for both a data collection platform and a data collection system. These models were derived from the survey results. The real value of these models lies in the fact that they are based on actual user requirements as delineated in the survey questionnaires. Some users desire data collection platforms of small size and light weight. These sizes and weights are beyond the present state of the art. Also, the survey provided a wealth of information on the nature and constituency of the data collection user community as well as information on user applications for data collection systems. Finally, the data sheds light on the generalized platform concept. That is, the diversity of user requirements shown in the data indicates the difficulty that can be anticipated in attempting to implement such a concept.
Performance assessment of ocean color satellite data has generally relied on statistical metrics chosen for their common usage and the rationale for selecting certain metrics is infrequently explained. Commonly reported statistics based on mean squared errors, such as the coefficient of determination (r2), root mean square error, and regression slopes, are most appropriate for Gaussian distributions without outliers and, therefore, are often not ideal for ocean color algorithm performance assessment, which is often limited by sample availability. In contrast, metrics based on simple deviations, such as bias and mean absolute error, as well as pair-wise comparisons, often provide more robust and straightforward quantities for evaluating ocean color algorithms with non-Gaussian distributions and outliers. This study uses a SeaWiFS chlorophyll-a validation data set to demonstrate a framework for satellite data product assessment and recommends a multimetric and user-dependent approach that can be applied within science, modeling, and resource management communities.
This Joint Earth Observation Mission Quality Assessment Framework – SAR Guidelines document is created for the benefit of the Earthnet Data Assessment Project (EDAP) project and Commercial SmallSat Data Acquisition (CSDA) Program as part of a collaboration between ESA and NASA.
The effectiveness of using currently available computer techniques for interpretation of MSS data to interpret SAR imagery for forest monitoring was assessed. Data were gathered with NASA's airborne APQ-102 dual-polarized, X-band SAR in a flight at 60,000 ft. Microdensitometry was employed to digitize the HH- and HV-polarized imagery. A ground spatial resolution of 15 m was obtained, control points were identified, a second order biquadratic transformation was applied to compensate for orientation, and rms errors were calculated. A second data set was taken with 30 m resolution in order to simulate thematic mapper operation. Classification was performed with pixel-by-pixel and textural classification algorithms. A statistical analysis was also carried out to find any significant differences between classifiers in a data set for a given classifier. Each polarization featured an independent distortion which required appropriate preprocessing to correct. Further studies are recommended with multiple frequencies viewing and multiple polarizations and look angles to define the actual forest classifications that can be made with the SAR imagery.
Since the NASA Global Energy Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) project released its 3rd version of products in 2010, the GEWEX Data Assessments Panel (GDAP) has been working on integrating various data products to address issues in the closing of the global energy and water cycles. The 4th version of the SRB products, Rel. 4.0-IP, has integrated data products from the cloud, aerosol, atmosphere, ocean surface, and land surface projects, coordinating within GDAP, to produce a long-term time series of TOA and surface radiative estimates. The Rel. 4-IP shortwave products span 34 years continuously from July 1983 to June 2017 on a quasi-equal-area 1degree longitude by 1degree latitude grid system. The longwave products are for land only from 1983-07 to 1987-12; for both land and ocean from 1988-01 to 2009-12; and ocean only from 2010-01 to 2017-06. The data are provided at 3 hourly, 3-hourly-monthly, daily and monthly means. The ISCCP HXS clouds and radiances are the key cloud input of the current GEWEX SRB algorithms. In addition, the longwave algorithm has also made changes in cloud microphysical property, surface skin temperature input, surface emissivity, atmospheric profile, adding longwave aerosol optical properties, revising cloud overlap procedure, and so on. Details of changes in both inputs and algorithms are documented in a NASA Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD). We have validated the surface longwave downward fluxes against the surface-based Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) buoy data. As of 2020, the BSRN archive has 12,116 site-months of observed records from 73 stations on all seven continents, and as of 2017, PMEL archive has 4389 buoy months of observed records from 64 buoys deployed in the tropics of Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. This paper presents how the SRB Rel. 4.0-IP surface longwave downward fluxes compare with these surface-based measurements and how the comparison statistics differ from that of Rel. 3.0.