SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “DEMAND”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Beyond Energy Efficiency: A clustering approach to embed demand flexibility into building energy benchmarking

The intermittency of carbon-free renewables and the demand changes associated with the widespread push for electrifying the transportation and building sectors provides an opportunity for buildings to go beyond energy efficiency and push towards providing demand flexibility to the electricity grid. The duality of energy efficiency and demand flexibility is necessary for success in a sustainable and reliable energy transition. Current building energy benchmarking models are limited in their ability to integrate concepts of demand flexibility and/or utilize granular smart meter data. Thus, current benchmarking methods are focused annual energy usage and fail to incorporate how the time of use of energy consumption impacts emissions in a quickly changing energy grid. Without a more comprehensive view of energy usage and associated real-time emissions, current benchmarking methods are unlikely to realize the full decarbonization potential of buildings. New emerging data streams provide an opportunity to develop a new generation of benchmarking energy models that embed dimensions of energy efficiency, grid interactivity, and demand flexibility into their analysis. In this paper, we propose a four-step method for embedding grid interactivity and demand flexibility into building benchmarking models that utilizes emerging building and time-series electricity data streams. We first engineer features to produce a mix-type dataset that encompasses many attributes of grid-interactive and efficient buildings, and then we apply K-medoids using Gower's Distance to produce peer-group clusters. We apply the method to a case study of 306 primary and secondary schools in southern California, USA. The results show that the method effectively clusters buildings by attributes of demand flexibility and energy efficiency. The clustering results reveal patterns in inefficient building operations and demand inflexibility at the building peer group level. In conclusion, the interpretation of clusters can serve as an integrated energy efficiency and demand flexibility benchmarking model and inform performance-specific policy targeting for buildings that go beyond traditional efficiency measures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demand Estimation of Net Metered Loads for Microgrid Restoration

Microgrids can experience frequency instability while operating in the islanded mode due to a significant demand generation imbalance. Presence of net metered (NM) loads can further complicate accurate demand forecasting. For these loads only the net demand, difference of load demand and generation, is available. This paper presents the various stages observed during microgrid restoration with high penetration of NM loads. Disaggregation of demand and generation from the net metered time series is shown to be essential for accurate demand forecasting in each of these stages. A disaggregation approach is proposed using correlation in the net metered data. Time series analysis is then used to forecast the demand in each stage of the microgrid restoration process. A case study using demand and generation time series data from residential loads, shows that the proposed approach is significantly more accurate for demand forecasting than using only the net-metered time series.

demand forecasting, Microgrid, power system restor↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand Response in Bangalore: Implications for Electricity System Operations

Recent Greening the Grid studies for India highlight the benefits of flexible resources for integrating variable renewable energy onto India’s electricity system. India’s ambitious renewable energy targets, which are particularly focused on renewable resource states such as Karnataka, will face fewer challenges when combined with new planning and operational strategies and technologies. This report explores one such strategy - demand response - by which the system operator shifts load throughout a day to minimize system wide production costs. To explore this strategy, we added demand response resources to Karnataka’s electricity system in a production cost model of India, using load shifting potential analyzed by Lawrence Berkeley National Labs. We then investigated the impacts of increasing demand response capacity under several renewable resource scenarios. Our results show the addition of demand response enables fuel shifting from high-marginal-cost and emissions-intensive subcritical coal and diesel generation to zero-marginal-cost and emissions-free renewable generation. Accordingly, the value that demand response provides to the system increases as the renewable penetration increases. In addition to reducing production costs and emissions, demand response reduces the time that thermal generators spend at their minimum output levels, which typically represents a less efficient and costlier operational state. Agricultural load shifting provides greater value to the system than residential, commercial, or industrial loads. Agricultural demand response is more flexible than other sectors because it is not exposed to subdaily operational constraints and it can operate for more hours per day without impacting customer satisfaction. Further, the first increment of demand response that is added to a system provides the greatest value; further additions provide additional benefits but have a decreasing impact. The insights we discuss could be leveraged by system planners and operators in other jurisdictions, particularly those facing significant renewable energy penetrations, to develop their own demand response programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Interplay Between Climate and Urban Expansion on Building Energy Demand in Morocco

Understanding building energy demand is critical for addressing climate uncertainty challenges and ensuring sustainable urban growth. This study develops a building energy demand (BED) model to explore how climate variation and urban expansion affect residential and commercial space heating and cooling demands in Morocco for three scenarios, namely, 2005, 2018, and 2018 + 1.5 °C. The results show that coastal cities have lower heating and cooling needs due to the oceanic influence, while interior cities require significantly higher heating demand per-unit-floorspace. Between 2005 and 2018, urban growth increased total heating and cooling demand by 218.8 GWh, particularly in northern and coastal regions, despite per-unit-floorspace reductions in milder climates and improved building efficiency in 2018. Residential heating remains the dominant energy use, though commercial demand is significant in urban centers. Under the 2018 + 1.5 °C hypothetical scenario, heating demand across Morocco declines by 335.8 GWh compared to 2018, with urban areas amplifying this trend. Meanwhile, cooling demand increases slightly by 44.4 GWh, with major cities experiencing relative increases of up to 50%. These findings highlight a trade-off where reduced winter heating needs are partly offset by increased summer cooling demands in densely urbanized areas. In conclusion, the study identifies key urban hotspots for targeted interventions, emphasizing the need for energy-efficient building designs, climate-adaptive urban planning, and resilient energy management strategies to sustainably address shifting seasonal energy patterns.

Morocco↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response using a degradation-aware Bayesian Optimization-Mixed-Integer Linear Programming framework

The increasing integration of renewable energy and rising electricity demand highlight the importance of battery energy storage systems for peak shaving and demand response. Unlike prior approaches that overlook operational impacts on degradation, this study proposes a Bayesian Optimization–Mixed Integer Linear Programming framework for optimal battery energy storage system sizing. In this framework, Mixed Integer Linear Programming determines short-term scheduling while a calibrated electrochemical model iteratively evaluates degradation. The central hypothesis is that the framework can efficiently identify optimal sizes that yield realistic and economically robust outcomes. The method is tested across three scenarios: peak shaving, peak shaving with energy-reduction demand response, and peak shaving with power-reduction demand response. Results show that the framework converge to the optimum within 20 iterations out of 150 possible sizes. Under baseline conditions, the framework consistently selects the smallest feasible system, minimizing unnecessary degradation costs from oversized storage. Sensitivity analyses reveal that larger systems are favored as demand rates or incentives increase. Comparisons of demand response programs indicate that power-reduction demand response offers greater economic benefits than energy-reduction demand response, although demand savings from peak shaving remain the dominant contributor to overall performance. This study demonstrates that the proposed framework balances computational tractability with degradation fidelity, identifies critical economic thresholds for investment, and offers a practical, flexible tool to guide industrial stakeholders in cost-effective battery energy storage system deployment.

Batteries↗

DOE OSTI2018

ULAMA: A Utilization-Aware Matching Approach for robust on-demand spatial service brokers

This article investigates an on-demand spatial service broker for suggesting service provider propositions and the corresponding time of service to mobile consumers while meeting the consumer’s maximum travel time and wait time constraints. The goal of the broker is to maximize the number of matched requests while also keeping the “eco-system” functioning and robust against variations in the supply–demand ratio by engaging as many service providers as possible and maintaining providers’ participation to ensure that providers do not drop out. This problem is important because of its many related societal applications in the on-demand and sharing economy (e.g., on-demand ride-hailing services, on-demand food delivery, etc.). Challenges of this problem include the need to satisfy many conflicting requirements of the broker, consumers and service providers and the high computational complexity since solving the problem for a number of available consumers at any time instant is NP-hard. Related work in spatial crowdsourcing and ridesharing has mainly focused on maximizing the number of matched requests and minimizing travel cost, but did not consider the importance of maintaining provider engagement and balancing provider utilization, which could become a priority when the available supply exceeds the demand. In this paper, we propose a Utilization-Aware Matching Approach (ULAMA) which employs novel provider-centric heuristics for balancing the utilization of providers, and a consumer-priority-based greedy matching algorithm that prioritizes consumers for maximizing the number of matched requests. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms related work by achieving the lowest variance in provider utilization while matching all available providers even when supply greatly exceeds demand. Our approach also achieved a larger number of matched requests, particularly when supply exceeds demand and also when both supply and demand are balanced.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

A hybrid inventory policy with split delivery under regular and surge demand

This paper proposes a hybrid inventory policy with split delivery under regular demand and surge demand. The combination of regular demand and surge demand can be observed in many areas, such as healthcare inventory and humanitarian supply chain management. The arrival rate for regular demand is typically higher than the arrival rate of surge demand; whereas, the volume of a regular demand is typically lower than the volume of a surge demand. This paper proposes an inventory management model that considers both emergency and regular replenishment corresponding to both demand patterns. The equilibrium equations developed for this model are based on the level crossing theory. This paper finally presents a search-based heuristics that can be used to identify near optimal inventory management policies. Numerical results show that proposed hybrid inventory policy with split delivery outperforms similar hybrid inventory policy without split delivery.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Demand Response-Driven Production and Maintenance Decision-Making for Cost-Effective Manufacturing

Manufacturers consume about 27% of the total electricity in the U.S. and are among the main contributors in the rising electricity demand. End-user electricity demand response is an effective demand side management tool that can help energy suppliers reduce electricity generation expenditures while providing opportunities for manufacturers to decrease operating costs. Several studies on demand response for manufacturers have been conducted. However, there lacks a unified production model that balances production capability degradation, maintenance requirements, and time-of-use (TOU) electricity prices simultaneously such that the interaction between production, maintenance, and electricity costs is considered. In this paper, a cost-effective production and maintenance scheduling model considering TOU electricity demand response is presented. Additionally, an aggregate cost model is formulated, which considers production, maintenance, and demand response parameters in the same function. The proposed models provide manufacturers with tools for implementing feasible and cost-effective demand response while meeting production targets and efficiently allocating maintenance resources. A case study is performed and illustrates that 19% in cost savings can be achieved when using the proposed model compared to solely minimizing the electricity billing cost. In addition, 14% in cost savings can be achieved when using the proposed model compared to a strategy where only the maintenance cost is minimized. Finally, the benefits of demand response driven production and maintenance scheduling under different cost and parameter settings are investigated; where the rated power, production rate, and initial machine production capability show to have the largest impact on the cost effectiveness of implementing demand response.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2017

A high turndown, ultra low emission low swirl burner for natural gas, on-demand water heaters

Previous research has shown that on-demand water heaters are, on average, approximately 37% more efficient than storage water heaters. However, approximately 98% of water heaters in the U.S. use storage water heaters while the remaining 2% are on-demand. A major market barrier to deployment of on-demand water heaters is their high retail cost, which is due in part to their reliance on multi-stage burner banks that require complex electronic controls. This project aims to research and develop a cost-effective, efficient, ultra-low emission burner for next generation natural gas on-demand water heaters in residential and commercial buildings. To meet these requirements, researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) are adapting and testing the low-swirl burner (LSB) technology for commercially available on-demand water heaters. In this report, a low-swirl burner is researched, developed, and evaluated to meet targeted on-demand water heater performance metrics. Performance metrics for a new LSB design are identified by characterizing performance of current on-demand water heaters using published literature and technical specifications, and through experimental evaluations that measure fuel consumption and emissions output over a range of operating conditions. Next, target metrics and design criteria for the LSB are used to create six 3D printed prototypes for preliminary investigations. Prototype designs that proved the most promising were fabricated out of metal and tested further to evaluate the LSB’s full performance potential. After conducting a full performance evaluation on two designs, we found that one LSB design is capable of meeting or exceeding almost all the target performance metrics for on-demand water heaters. Specifically, this LSB demonstrated flame stability when operating from 4.07 kBTU/hr up to 204 kBTU/hr (50:1 turndown), compliance with SCAQMD Rule 1146.2 (14 ng/J or 20 ppm NOX @ 3% O2), and lower CO emissions than state-of-the art water heaters. Overall, the results from this research show that the LSB could provide a simple, low cost burner solution for significantly extending operating range of on-demand water heaters while providing low NOX and CO emissions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Assessments of Demand Flexibility from Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings: Issues and Considerations

This SEE Action Network report explains basic concepts and fundamental considerations for assessing the actual demand flexibility performance of buildings participating in demand flexibility programs and responding to time-varying retail rates. Demand flexibility is the capability of distributed energy resources (DERs) to adjust a building’s load profile across different timescales. Assessments determine the timing, location, quantity, and quality of grid services provided. The results can be used for financial settlements and to improve performance of demand flexibility, support its consideration in resource potential studies and electricity system planning, and contribute to cost-effectiveness evaluations. While practitioners and regulators regularly find opportunities to improve performance assessments of demand-related services, to a large degree current best practices are sufficient for basic service offerings as demand flexibility is implemented today. However, advances in assessment practices will be required in a future with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) that provide continuous demand flexibility by integrating multiple DERs and flexibility modes (load shed, load shift, modulate, and generate). Example practices include using new baseline constructs—including whether baselines are even required for certain building flexibility modes or configurations, deploying more advanced metering and analytics, further developing cybersecurity standards, improving communication standards for increased interoperability, and establishing performance metrics and assessment procedures for load modulation as it is more fully defined and implemented. This report provides information on prioritizing and designing performance assessment elements for demand flexibility programs and time-varying retail rates, assessment protocols, and research and development needs. Additional research sponsored by DOE’s Building Technologies Office offers more detailed technical information on assessing performance of demand flexibility, including definition of performance metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Urban morphology and urban water demand evolution in the Los Angeles region

Detailed description of the dataset sources used in this study, the experimental workflow, and plotting for the paper figures provided at the associated GitHub Meta Repo: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2024_ERL The future water demand projections from this study are hypothetical future water demands that reflect the population and urban land cover changes represented by the scenarios considered. The intent and emphasis of this work is investigating the interactions between population change, evolution of urban morphology, and water demand. These projections are not meant to be likely future demands for specific water providers or the LA region and should not be interpreted as such. The folders contain input and output data for each step of the "Recreate my Experiment" workflow described in the associated GitHub meta-repository as well as data used for plotting Figures for the paper that this dataset supports. Description of each folder's contents and use: Step_1a: Inputs to the associated python script provided on the GitHub repo. Step_1b: Inputs (downscaled population rasters) used by the associated python script provided on the GitHub repo. Original 1-km squared rasters that were downscaled also provided. Step_1c: Urban growth projection rasters corresponding to SSP3 and SSP5 population scenarios are provided in separate subfolders as well as the water provider boundaries used for analysis. Outputs of data processing also provided. Associated python script provided on GitHub. Step_1d: Description of Inputs used by the QGIS Model Builder GUI that automates geospatial processing and clipping the of the high-resolution 60 cm land cover data for each urban land class footprint within a defined polygon boundary. The Model Builder is provided on the GitHub repo and can be used by QGIS. The outputs of this step are in "Clipped Provider Hi Res Landcover". If the user wants to use The Model Builder for different regions of LA or to test our outputs, they will need to download the hi resolution landcover raster listed in the Readme and in Ref [2] of the GitHub Page. Step_1e: All necessary inputs to generate average monthly demand over the 2017-2021 period and the minimum and maximum demands over the 2014-2021 for each water provider. Associated python scripts are on GitHub. Step 2: Output data about land cover metrics (areas and fractions) for each urban land class for each water provider. Associated python script on GitHub. Uses outputs from Step 1d "Clipped Provider Hi Res Landcover" Step 3: Both the Inputs for and Outputs from the urban projection raster analysis Python script on GitHub. The inputs are urban land class rasters for specific SSP and zoning scenarios (low, medium, high) from Step 1c. The outputs are rasters of urban pixels that were converted to a higher land class and the number of land class units that changed (Values of 1, 2, or 3). For example, a value of 2 could be LC 21 -> 23 or LC 22 -> 24. These maps are label "intensification." The other outputs are "urban growth" rasters showing the conversion of non urban to urban land, which are indicated by pixel values of 1. These are used for the urban growth change maps in Figure 3. Step 4: Output projections of indoor and outdoor annual and monthly demands for each water provider for the average, minimum, and maximum monthly demand scenarios for each of the four urban growth scenarios (SSP3 med, SSP5 low, SSP5 med, and SSP5 high). The outputs also include metrics on each water provider used for the demand sensitivity analysis presented in Figure 8. Outputs from Step 4 are used for Figures 4 - 8 of the paper. Figures: This folder has data used for plotting Figures 1 through 5, and 8. Data for Figures 6 and 7 are sourced directly from folders associated with the Processing and Analysis Steps 1 - 4. The GitHub meta repository provides descriptions of how each figure was made and the associated plotting scripts used.

Los Angeles↗

NASA NTRS2016

Crowd Sourcing Approach for UAS Communication Resource Demand Forecasting

Congressional attention to Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) has caused the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to move the National Airspace System (NAS) Integration project forward, but using guidelines, practices and procedures that are yet to be fully integrated with the FAA Aviation Management System. The real drive for change in the NAS will to come from both UAS operators and the government jointly seeing an accurate forecast of UAS usage demand data. This solid forecast information would truly get the attention of planners. This requires not an aggregate demand, but rather a picture of how the demand is spread across small to large UAS, how it is spread across a wide range of missions, how it is expected over time and where, in terms of geospatial locations, will the demand appear. In 2012 the Volpe Center performed a study of the overall future demand for UAS. This was done by aggregate classes of aircraft types. However, the realistic expected demand will appear in clusters of aircraft activities grouped by similar missions on a smaller geographical footprint and then growing from those small cells. In general, there is not a demand forecast that is tightly coupled to the real purpose of the mission requirements (e.g. in terms of real locations and physical structures such as wind mills to inspect, farms to survey, pipelines to patrol, etc.). Being able to present a solid basis for the demand is crucial to getting the attention of investment, government and other fiscal planners. To this end, Mosaic ATM under NASA guidance is developing a crowd sourced, demand forecast engine that can draw forecast details from commercial and government users and vendors. These forecasts will be vetted by a governance panel and then provide for a sharable accurate set of projection data. Our paper describes the project and the technical approach we are using to design and create access for users to the forecast system.

air traffic↗

DOE OSTI2019

A BI-LEVEL APPROACH TO FUTURE POWER SYSTEM CO-OPTIMIZATION WITH HIGH PENETRATION OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND RESPONSIVE DEMAND

Electricity generation accounts for nearly half of the total CO2 emissions in the United States. For this reason, the development and integration of renewable resources will play an essential role in achieving the societal objective of mitigating climate change through reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In conjunction with the environmental benefits of renewable energy, the most common renewable sources, such as wind and solar, also increase the uncertainties surrounding generation in power systems, which adds significant challenges to the system operation and planning. The uncertainties and forecasting errors surrounding renewable generation are normally addressed through the use of reserves from traditional generators. At greater levels of renewable penetration, sufficient generator reserves may not be available or economically viable. In contrast, the promise of demand-side resources in this arena lies in the spatially widespread availability, rapid response potential, and lower cost of features that already exist in the system. However, the challenge of responsive demand arises from the need to understand, manage, and incentivize a very large number of resources to participate effectively in efficient operation of the complex power system. Since demand response comes from the distribution system, microgrids as the basic building blocks of future distribution systems will be a critical environment for the study of demand response. To support integration of microgrids with flexible loads in future power systems, the operational mode of power systems will need to evolve. Therefore, it is going to be critical to have new and efficient co-optimization methods for coordination of the various power market participants and the scheduling of resources in the power systems of the future. Motivated by the rapid increase in renewable penetration, the need for effective demand response programs, and a changing system structure, this dissertation seeks to define a new strategy that supports co-optimization of various participants in power systems with emphasis on high renewable penetration and demand response. This strategy has three components; 1) an exploration of the capabilities of different types of demand response programs in a microgrid, 2) development and implementation of a bi-level framework for co-optimization of the main grid with high renewable penetration and a microgrid with demand response capabilities, and 3) expansion of the bi-level framework from a microgrid to a general distribution system to explore the advantages of the bi-level co-optimization approach over the traditional optimization approach. Conclusions of this work illustrate that the stochastic rolling horizon approach could effectively manage the operation of a microgrid with various demand response programs. In addition, the bi-level approach is a promising co-optimization framework for the transmission and distribution levels that could increase system renewable penetration and reduce operation costs. Compared to the traditional framework, the bi-level framework yields more equitable cost sharing patterns among the market participants as well as better support for the power system evolution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2018

The Impacts of Demand Response Participation in Capacity Markets

Demand Response is capable of reducing the total amount of generation capacity investment required to ensure electricity system security. We utilise this fact to devise a novel methodology to estimate the contribution of a load-shifting demand response resource to system adequacy. We then simulate an electricity market using mixed complementarity models to determine how the participation of demand response in capacity markets impacts on market outcomes. Demand response primarily affects the equilibrium outcome through the energy market, however demand response also reduces both equilibrium prices and consumer costs through its capacity market contribution. The effect is particularly pronounced when there is a high level of variable renewable generation and initial undercapacity. In the absence of demand response, increased wind generation leads to higher capacity prices as generators seek to offset depressed energy prices. However, we find that demand response's participation in the capacity market can combat these increased capacity prices. These results suggest that demand response participation in capacity markets can mitigate some of the market challenges of renewable integration, particularly that of the 'missing money' problem.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Urban morphology and urban water demand: a case study in the land constrained Los Angeles region using urban growth modeling

The interactions between population growth, urban morphology, and water demand have important implications for water resources and supply in urban regions. Water use for irrigation comprises a significant fraction of urban water demand, and is potentially influenced by long-term changes in urban morphology. To investigate this, we used spatially explicit projections of urban land development intensity (fraction impervious area) generated from a 30 m resolution urban growth model for the Los Angeles (LA) region. Recent historical data on water use and high resolution landcover were used to establish relationships between green area, urban development intensity, and outdoor water demand. These relationships were then used to project outdoor and total water demand in 2100 using the urban growth model outputs. We considered two different population scenarios informed by the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections for the region (SSP3 and SSP5), and three scenarios of urban development intensification. Our analysis is resolved for over 80 water providers in the region, from the urban core to suburban fringe, and highlights diverse demand responses influenced by initial urban form and water demand attributes. Assumptions about outdoor water use factors based on recent water supply data were found to be nearly as influential on future outdoor demand as the urban growth scenario settings. Compared to previous studies, our work is unique in coherently linking high resolution SSP population scenarios, urban land cover evolution, and urban water demand projections, demonstrating the approach for the LA region—the largest population center in the western United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

How Can Floor Covering Influence Buildings’ Demand Flexibility?

Although the thermal mass of floors in buildings has been demonstrated to help shift cooling load, there is still a lack of information about how floor covering can influence the floor’s load shifting capability and buildings’ demand flexibility. To fill this gap, we estimated demand flexibility based on the daily peak cooling load reduction for different floor configurations and regions, using EnergyPlus simulations. As a demand response strategy, we used precooling and global temperature adjustment. The result demonstrated an adverse impact of floor covering on the building’s demand flexibility. Specifically, under the same demand response strategy, the daily peak cooling load reductions were up to 20–34% for a concrete floor whereas they were only 17–29% for a carpet-covered concrete floor. This is because floor covering hinders convective coupling between the concrete floor surface and the zone air and reduces radiative heat transfer between the concrete floor surface and the surrounding environment. In hot climates such as Phoenix, floor covering almost negated the concrete floor’s load shifting capability and yielded low demand flexibility as a wood floor, representing low thermal mass. Sensitivity analyses showed that floor covering’s effects can be more profound with a larger carpet-covered area, a greater temperature adjustment depth, or a higher radiant heat gain. With this effect ignored for a given building, its demand flexibility would be overestimated, which could prevent grid operators from obtaining sufficient demand flexibility to maintain a grid. Our findings also imply that for more efficient grid-interactive buildings, a traditional standard for floor design could be modified with increasing renewable penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Future Battery Material Demand Analysis Based on U.S. Department of Energy R&D Targets

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) supports research, development, and deployment of efficient, sustainable transportation technologies that will improve energy efficiency and fuel economy, and enable America to use less petroleum. To accelerate the development and adoption of new technologies, VTO has developed specific targets for a wide range of powertrain components, including the energy storage system. In this study, we use Autonomie, Argonne National Laboratory’s (Argonne’s) vehicle system simulation tool to evaluate future energy storage requirements (power, energy, etc.) for different vehicle classes, powertrains, component technologies and timeframes. BatPac, Argonne’s tool dedicated to energy storage pack design and costs, is then used to quantify the materials required for each pack. Market penetrations are then used to estimate the overall material demand worldwide and in the United States, with or without recycling. The results demonstrate that the positive impact of VTO research and development will lead to significant reduction in material compared to business-as-usual due to new anode and cathode designs, along with acceleration in battery cell chemistry penetrations. In terms of material demands, it is observed that lithium demand reaches about 80,000 tons (by a factor of 42–45), nickel demand reaches about 500,000 tons (by a factor of 47–56), manganese demand reaches about 30,000–50,000 tons (by a factor of 20–34), and cobalt demand reaches about 30,000 tons (by a factor of 13–28) in the future by 2050. The individual material demand per unit energy, however, decreases significantly in the future due to advances in VTO research and development activities. The increase in battery material demands is mostly driven by increased electrified vehicle fleet penetration in the markets.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Deep Learning Approach for TNC Trip Demand Prediction Considering Spatial-Temporal Features: Preprint

Ride-hailing or transportation network companies (TNCs), such as Uber, Lyft, DiDi Chuxing, or RideAustin, are emerging as a new and disruptive on-demand mobility service in recent years. However, the methods for developing predictive analytics to explore the nature and dynamics of TNCs across cities in the United States are still nascent due to the lack of publicly available data. Recently available public datasets on TNCs by RideAustin offer a unique opportunity to examine spatial, temporal, environmental, and special event factors associated with TNC trip demand. This study explores the use of a deep learning approach - Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) - to predict TNC trip demand at the ZIP Code level using data from Austin, Texas. The analysis includes key predictive factors such as time of day, day of week, precipitation, and temperature, indicating their corresponding associations with TNC trip demand. Results from initial analysis show that LSTM is able to predict the TNC trip demand for the upcoming hour accurately. LSTM, when compared to other prediction methods, such as historical average and instantaneous trip demand, reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) of the model predictions by 37% and 24%, respectively. This novel method offers significant potential for scaling up and/or replicability across cities where data are available for understanding TNC trip demand to inform emerging mobility system operators. Predicting trip demand can help TNC drivers make informed decisions on how to be more efficient by maximizing passenger pickups and minimizing wait times and deadheading.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗