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NASA NTRS2019

A Crop Yield Change Emulator for Use in GCAM and Similar Models: Persephone v1.0

Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multisector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model’s results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

Snyder, Abigail↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evapotranspiration-Based Irrigation Scheduling in Salinas Valley Vegetable Crops

Crop evapotranspiration (ETc) monitoring may support improved irrigation water management in California's Central Coast agricultural region. The CropManage (CM) web-application, developed and operated by the University of California, informs irrigation and nitrogen scheduling decisions made by growers and crop consultants. Daily weather conditions are accounted for by use of grass reference ET data imported from the California Dept. Water Resources. Satellite observations of crop development from NASA's Satellite Irrigation Management Support can be imported and used by CM to adjust crop phenology. A replicated irrigation trial was performed July-October 2018 to investigate yield response of drip-irrigated celery (Apium graveolens) to applied water volume, and to further calibrate CM for use in that crop. Water was uniformly applied by sprinklers to establish the crop, and CM was then used to guide surface drip irrigation treatments applied three times weekly at 50%, 75%, 100%, 125% and 150% of ETc replacement level. Nitrogen fertilizer totaling 380 kg/ha was applied through the drip system generally once per week. Treatments were evaluated for commercial yield 85 and 93 days after transplanting (DAT). The 100% ETc treatment yielded 83 Mg/ha 93 DAT, which was 10 Mg/ha higher than the reported regional average yield in 2017. The 100% treatment received a seasonal total of 34 cm of water, compared with reported grower average exceeding 48 cm. Higher yields of 102 and 108 Mg/ha were observed in the 125% and 150% ETc treatments, respectively. Regarding crop quality, however, the 150% ETc treatment suffered greater incidence of pith breakdown and basal rot than the 100% treatment. Yields from the 50% and 75% treatments were below regional average. Aboveground biomass was evaluated 87 DAT. Fresh and dry biomass accumulations were positively related to applied water volume. Additional findings will be presented for a cauliflower trial conducted spring/summer 2019.

Johnson, Lee F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

VEG-05 Tomato Crop Testing on the International Space Station

Production of fresh, nutritious, and tasty produce for astronauts during spaceflight may provide health-promoting, bioavailable nutrients, enhance the dietary experience, and reduce menu fatigue as we move into longer-duration missions. Growing and caring for plants may also reduce the psychological stresses associated with spaceflight and enhance connection to Earth. A diversity of crops will be required to provide nutrition, variety, and resiliency, however requirements for consistent growth under spaceflight environmental conditions remain unclear. VEG-05 is part of a series of experiments with pick-and-eat salad crops to better define best practices for crop production in space. VEG-05 and predecessor experiments VEG-04A and VEG-04B, grew salad crops in the Veggie vegetable production facilities on the International Space Station using different lighting treatments. In VEG-05 we grew ‘Red Robin’ dwarf cherry tomatoes under two different red: blue lighting spectra. Light can impact the growth habit, yield, nutritional composition, microbial levels, and even flavor attributes within crops, and our goal was to assess these characteristics in ‘Red Robin’ tomatoes during VEG-05. Considerable pre-flight verification testing was performed prior to launch in Nov. 2022. Prior to the flight and ground experiments, lighting in both Veggie units on ISS was measured and lights were standardized between flight and ground hardware. VEG-05 flight operations ran between December 2022 and March 2023, with a ground control initially 48 hours delayed. Due to environmental challenges of very low humidity during the first week of the experiment, seed germination was low for both flight and ground plants. The flight experiment ultimately had 4 - 5 plants per treatment out of the planned 6 plants, but the initial ground control had only three plants in one treatment and none in the other, so this ground control was restarted at the beginning of Feb. 2023 and ran through May, with successful growth of all 12 plants. Both flight and ground control ran 100 days, with harvests of fruit at day 83, day 90, and day 100. Flight plants had uneven growth, and following the early drying events, excess water was frequently observed, which led to a variety of plant stress responses including uneven plant growth, excess adventitious root formation, flower and fruit abortion, and visible microbial growth. In total, from the five surviving red-rich lighted plants, only 5 ripe fruit were produced, and from the four surviving blue-rich lighted plants, 10 fruit were produced with only 6 of these ripe by day 100. Because of the small fruit number and the unsatisfactory growth, crew members were not allowed to consume the tomatoes, and all fruit, as well as large branches with leaves, samples of the adventitious roots, two plant rooting pillows from each treatment, microbial sampling swabs, and some water samples were returned for analysis. Because of the small sample sizes and factors affecting growth on the ISS, objectives of assessing light quality effect (red: blue light treatments) will not be achieved. Revised objectives of this study include to compare stressed flight plants with normal ground plants to determine the impact of plant overwatering stress in space on food safety and the plant microbial community, to determine nutrient content changes in fruit and leaves from stressed plants, and to evaluate stress metabolism changes in returned tissue by transcriptomic analysis. Postflight analysis is underway with the following analyses being conducted: A. culturable microbiology and food safety as well as molecular microbial community analysis of 1. ripe fruit, 2. leaves, stems, and adventitious roots, 3. pillow components (roots, wicks, and substrates), 4. swabs, and 5. water samples from root mats before and after growth. B. transcriptomics of leaf tissue and adventitious roots, and C. elemental analysis of leaf tissue. If sufficient tissue remains elemental analyses will also be conducted on fruit. While not generating the desired information on spaceflight growth responses of healthy crops, our team is hopeful that these analyses will shed light on tomato responses to stress in this environment as plant overwatering stress is a mission-relevant condition that could occur in future space crop growth systems. This research was co-funded by the Human Research Program and Space Biology (MTL#1075) in the ILSRA 2015 NRA call.

Gioia D. Massa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nutrition of Antarctic-grown Crops to Supplement the Crew Diet, with Applications for Spaceflight

The availability of fresh produce during longer-duration spaceflight missions is being explored as a countermeasure for human biobehavioral health and performance, including how fresh fruits and vegetables can supplement the crew diet with nutrients that are predicted to become deficient throughout the missions. Crop production in the Veggie and Advanced Plant Habitat vegetable production chambers on the International Space Station (ISS) have tested pick-and-eat crops in spaceflight. However, the limited plant cultivation volume of these chambers has restricted the sample sizes and biomass allocated for nutrition assessment. To gain a better understanding of the nutrient composition of pick-and-eat crops, leafy greens and fruiting plants were grown in the EDEN ISS plant cultivation facility near the German Neumayer Station III in Antarctica from March 2021 to January 2022. Target crops for nutrition sampling aligned with cultivars grown in spaceflight, including ‘Outredgeous’ red romaine lettuce, Mizuna mustard, ‘Red Robin’ dwarf cherry tomato, and NuMex ‘Española Improved’ chili pepper. Plants subsamples were taken at harvest; in the event of multiple harvests from the same plants, subsamples were taken at both the first and final harvests. ‘Outredgeous’ and Mizuna were also grown multiple times throughout the year, allowing multiple grow-outs to be analyzed for potential effects across the growing season. Subsamples were first weighed for fresh mass, dried in a dedicated oven at 70°C for 96 h, weighed again, and stored in air-tight containers inside Neumayer Station III. At the beginning of 2022, the samples were shipped to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center, where they are currently being analyzed with ion chromatography for nutrients of interest in the astronaut diet, including calcium, iron, magnesium, and potassium. This study aims to increase our understanding of how the crops that have successfully grown on the ISS can supplement the crew diet, as well as how other factors like plant age and the number of days the facility has been in operation may impact nutrient concentrations. Such findings can improve the crop selection process and how pick-and-eat crops are cultivated during spaceflight missions.

Jess M. Bunchek↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nutrition of Antarctic-grown Crops to Supplement the Crew Diet, with Applications for Spaceflight

Jess M. Bunchek↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Space Crop Considerations for Human Exploration

NASA has been actively working to both determine how many crops will be needed for early exploration missions as well as updating the “Crop Readiness Level” (CRL) for a library of crops that can be selected for supporting a long-term mission. The Crop Readiness Level (CRL) is modelled after NASA’s Technology Readiness Level (TRL) approach for developing and advancing new technologies for space, first suggested by Barry Finger and published by Wheeler and Strayer [2]. The CRL model has nine levels from “crop identification” to “consumed in space.” The number and variety of crops needed is impacted by both primary factors (nutrition, menu fatigue, behavioral health system resiliency) as well as secondary factors such as ECLSS considerations, crop robustness, and hardware considerations.

Gioia D Massa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional and Model-Specific Response Types in A Global Gridded Crop Model Ensemble

Crop models are often employed to project crop yields under changing conditions such as global warming and associated management change for adaptation. Multi-model ensembles are promoted to enhance the robustness of projections, but questions remain on what causes often large differences between projections of individual models. Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) are especially exposed to this question when applied for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, environmental impacts of agricultural production, because their results are used in downstream analyses, such as in integrated assessment or economic modeling for projecting future land-use change. Even though global gridded crop models are often based on detailed field-scale models or have implemented similar modeling principles in other ecosystem models, global-scale models are subject to substantial uncertainties from both model structure and parametrization as well as from calibration and input data quality. AgMIP’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) has thus set out to intercompare GGCMs in order to evaluate model performance, describe model uncertainties, identify inconsistencies within the ensemble and underlying reasons, and to ultimately improve models and modeling capacities. In phase 2 of the GGCMI activities, 12 modeling groups followed a modeling protocol that asked for up to 1404 31-year global simulations at 0.5 arc-degree spatial resolution to assess models’ sensitivities to changes in carbon dioxide (C; 4 different levels) temperature (T; 7 different offset levels), water supply (W; 9 levels), and nitrogen (N; 3 levels), the so-called CTWN experiment (Franke et al. 2020; http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2315-2020). We here present analyses of model response types using impact response surfaces along the C, T, W, and N dimensions, respectively and collectively. Doing so, we can understand differences in simulated responses per driver rather than aggregated changes in yields. We find that models’ sensitivities to the individual driver dimensions are substantially different and often more different across models than across regions. A cluster analysis finds regional and model-specific patterns. There is some agreement across models with respect to the spatial patterns of response types but strong differences in the distribution of response type clusters across models suggests that models need to undergo further scrutiny. We suggest establishing standards in model process evaluation not only against historical dynamics but also against dedicated experiments across the CTWN dimensions.

crop models↗

NASA NTRS2014

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comment on 'Shang S. 2012. Calculating actual crop evapotranspiration under soil water stress conditions with appropriate numerical methods and time step. Hydrological Processes 26: 3338-3343. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8405'

A previous study analyzed errors in the numerical calculation of actual crop evapotranspiration (ET(sub a)) under soil water stress. Assuming no irrigation or precipitation, it constructed equations for ET(sub a) over limited soil-water ranges in a root zone drying out due to evapotranspiration. It then used a single crop-soil composite to provide recommendations about the appropriate usage of numerical methods under different values of the time step and the maximum crop evapotranspiration (ET(sub c)). This comment reformulates those ET(sub a) equations for applicability over the full range of soil water values, revealing a dependence of the relative error in numerical ET(sub a) on the initial soil water that was not seen in the previous study. It is shown that the recommendations based on a single crop-soil composite can be invalid for other crop-soil composites. Finally, a consideration of the numerical error in the time-cumulative value of ET(sub a) is discussed besides the existing consideration of that error over individual time steps as done in the previous study. This cumulative ET(sub a) is more relevant to the final crop yield.

Time step↗

NASA NTRS2015

AgMIP Training in Multiple Crop Models and Tools

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has the goal of using multiple crop models to evaluate climate impacts on agricultural production and food security in developed and developing countries. There are several major limitations that must be overcome to achieve this goal, including the need to train AgMIP regional research team (RRT) crop modelers to use models other than the ones they are currently familiar with, plus the need to harmonize and interconvert the disparate input file formats used for the various models. Two activities were followed to address these shortcomings among AgMIP RRTs to enable them to use multiple models to evaluate climate impacts on crop production and food security. We designed and conducted courses in which participants trained on two different sets of crop models, with emphasis on the model of least experience. In a second activity, the AgMIP IT group created templates for inputting data on soils, management, weather, and crops into AgMIP harmonized databases, and developed translation tools for converting the harmonized data into files that are ready for multiple crop model simulations. The strategies for creating and conducting the multi-model course and developing entry and translation tools are reviewed in this chapter.

farm crops↗

NASA NTRS2019

Global Crop Production: Adaptation to Temperature Increase Is Possible by Maintaining the Current Growing Periods

Increasing temperature trends are expected to impact yields of major field crops by affecting various plant processes, such as phenology and growth. However, future projections, especially at the global scale, do not consider any agronomic adaptation in farming practices. We use an ensemble of seven Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) contributing to the AgMIP-Gridded project to quantify the impacts and adaptation potential of field crops under increasing temperature. We study how uniform warming scenarios up to 6 K affect the productivity and growing period duration of five major crops. The design of the experiment aims at understanding adaptation measures targeted to temperature-driven impacts and therefore leaves out changes in any other climate variable. We find that, without adaptation the dominant effect of temperature increase is to shorten the growing period and to reduce yields and production, consistently across crops and regions. We then test the potential of two agronomic measures to contrast warming-induced yield reduction, assuming that (i) cultivars with adjusted phenology would be used to regain the reference growing period duration; (ii) rainfed systems would be converted to irrigated. Despite substantial uncertainties in model parametrization and little agreement in spatial patterns, at the global aggregation, model results are robust. We find that up to 3 K of temperature increase, production losses could be fully compensated by maintaining the original crop growing period. Irrigation would also compensate production losses, but would not reduce the temperature impacts. Across regions, the model ensemble estimates larger adaptation potentials from unchanged growing periods in continental and temperate regions, than in tropical and arid regions, where also irrigation has respectively little effects and availability.

Irrigation↗

NASA NTRS2020

Narrowing Uncertainties in the Effects of Elevated CO2 on Crops

Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

carbon dioxide (CO2)↗

NASA NTRS2023

Emission Factors for Crop Residue and Prescribed Fires in the Eastern US during FIREX-AQ

Agricultural and prescribed burning activities emit large amounts of trace gases and aerosols on regional to global scales. We present a compilation of emission factors (EFs) and emission ratios (ERs) from the eastern portion of the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) campaign in 2019 in the United States, which sampled burning of crop residues and other prescribed fire fuels. FIREX-AQ provided comprehensive chemical characterization of 53 crop residue and 22 prescribed fires. Crop residues burned at different modified combustion efficiencies (MCE), with corn residue burning at higher MCE than other fuel types. Prescribed fires burned at lower MCE (<0.90) which is typical, while grasslands burned at lower MCE (0.90) than normally observed due to moist, green, growing season fuels. Most non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) were significantly anticorrelated with MCE except for ethanol and NMVOCs that were measured with less certainty. We identified 23 species where crop residue fires differed by more than 50% from prescribed fires at the same MCE. Crop residue EFs were greater for species related to agricultural chemical use and fuel composition as well as oxygenated NMVOCs possibly due to the presence of metals such as potassium. Prescribed EFs were greater for monoterpenes (5×). FIREX-AQ crop residue average EFs generally agreed with the previous agricultural fire study in the US but had large disagreements with global compilations. FIREX-AQ observations show the importance of regionally-specific and fuel-specific EFs as first steps to reduce uncertainty in modeling the air quality impacts of fire emissions.

air quality↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open Science Approach to Analyze Climate-Crop Relationships in the US Leveraging GES DISC and Galaxy Workflows

Understanding the intricate relationship between climate variability and agricultural production is crucial for ensuring food security. This study investigates the impact of climate parameters, such as temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture, on major US crop yields. Adopting an open science approach, the study analyzes the impact of climate on agricultural production in the United States. The Galaxy workflow engine serves as the primary tool for integrating climate data from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), retrieved via the Giovanni system, with yield statistics from the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (USDA NASS). Extensions for reading, preprocessing, and analyzing external data have been developed, enabling the creation of workflows within the Galaxy platform. The development of a reproducible workflow allows for the calculation of seasonal climate averages, which are then assessed for their correlation with crop yields. This methodology ensures the replicability of the research, promoting transparency and collaboration in the scientific community. Correlational and regression analyses have been applied to different sub-zones and crops. The findings from this research offer valuable insights into the relationship between climate parameters and crop yields. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of climate-crop relationships, providing a solid foundation for informed decision-making in the agricultural sector. The high correlation values indicate a significant relationship between climate parameters and crop yields, underscoring the importance of considering climate factors in agricultural planning and policymaking. This research also exemplifies the power of open science in advancing our understanding of complex environmental and agricultural phenomena. By leveraging open data and services, it provides a robust and replicable framework for future studies in this critical field.

Open science↗

NASA NTRS1973

Semi-automatic crop inventory from sequential ERTS-1 imagery

The detection of a newly introduced crop into the Imperial (California) Valley by sequential ERTS-1 imagery is proving that individual crop types can be identified by remote sensing techniques. Initial results have provided an extremely useful product for water agencies. A system for the identification of field conditions enables the production of a statistical summary within two to three days of receipt of the ERTS-1 imagery. The summary indicates the total acreage of producing crops and irrigated planted crops currently demanding water and further indicates freshly plowed fields that will be demanding water in the near future. Relating the field conditions to the crop calendar of the region by means of computer techniques will provide specific crop identification for the 8000 plus fields.

Johnson, C. W.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Airborne monitoring of crop canopy temperatures for irrigation scheduling and yield prediction

The aim of the program discussed was to develop techniques for remotely measuring crop irrigation needs and predicting crop yields, with emphasis on wheat. Airborne measurements, using an IR line scanner and color IR photography, were made to evaluate the feasibility of measuring minimum and maximum (dawn and afternoon) crop temperatures to compute a parameter, termed 'stress degree day' (SDD) - a valuable indicator of crop water needs, which can be related to irrigation scheduling and yield. Crop canopy temperature measurements by airborne IR techniques revealed the superiority of thermal IR data over color IR photography. Water stress undetected in the latter technique was clearly detected in thermal imagery. Color IR photography, however, is valuable in discerning vegetation. The pseudo-colored temperature-difference images (and pseudo-colored images, reading directly in daily SDD increments) are shown to be well suited for assessing plant water status and, thus, for determining the irrigation needs and crop yield potentials.

Millard, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Crop calendars for the US, USSR, and Canada in support of the early warning project

New crop calendars are produced for U.S. regions where several years of periodic growth stage observations are available on a CRD basis. Preexisting crop calendars from the LACIE are also collected as are U.S. crop calendars currently being created for the Foreign Commodities Production Forecast project. For the U.S.S.R. and Canada, no new crop calendars are created because no new data are available. Instead, LACIE crop calendars are compared against simulated normal daily temperatures and against the Robertson wheat and Williams barley phenology models run on the simulated normal temperatures. Severe inconsistencies are noted and discussed. For the U.S.S.R., spring and fall planting dates can probably be estimated accurately from satellite or meteorological data. For the starter model problem, the Feyerherm spring wheat model is recommended for spring planted small grains, and the results of an analysis are presented. For fall planted small grains, use of normal planting dates supplemented by spectral observation of an early stage is recommended. The importance of nonmeteorological factors as they pertain to meteorological factors in determining fall planting is discussed. Crop calendar data available at the Johnson Space Center for the U.S., U.S.S.R., Canada, and other countries are inventoried.

Hodges, T.↗

NASA NTRS1981

AgRISTARS: Supporting research. US crop calendars in support of the early warning project

The crop calendars produced for the Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) and crop calendar samples for Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Texas are presented. These calendars are based on weekly crop reporting district level observations of the percentage of various crops at several growth stages. A sample of the statistical treatments of the weekly data is provided. Four to five years of 50-percent dates for stages on a crop reporting district level for Arkansas, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio and Wisconsin are also given.

Hodges, T.↗