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NASA NTRS2018

The PMIP4 Contribution to CMIP6 - Part 1: Overview and Over-Arching Analysis Plan

This paper is the first of a series of four GMD (Geoscientific Model Development) papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project - Phase 4 -- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 6) experiments. Part 2 (Otto-Bliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) - Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21,000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127,000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.

climate↗

NASA NTRS1985

Coupled atmosphere/canopy model for remote sensing of plant reflectance features

Solar radiative transfer through a coupled system of atmosphere and plant canopy is modeled as a multiple-scattering problem through a layered medium of random scatterers. The radiative transfer equation is solved by the discrete-ordinates finite-element method. Analytic expressions are derived that allow the calculation of scattering and absorption cross sections for any plant canopy layer form measurable biophysical parameters such as the leaf area index, leaf angle distribution, and individual leaf reflectance and transmittance data. An expression for a canopy scattering phase function is also given. Computational results are in good agreement with spectral reflectance measurements directly above a soybean canopy, and the concept of greenness- and brightness-transforms of Landsat MSS data is reconfirmed with the computed results. A sensitivity analysis with the coupled atmosphere/canopy model quantifies how satellite-sensed spectral radiances are affected by increased atmospheric aerosols, by varying leaf area index, by anisotropic leaf scattering, and by non-Lambertian soil boundary conditions. Possible extensions to a 2-D model are also discussed.

Gerstl, S. A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Coupling Advanced Modeling and Visualization to Improve High-Impact Tropical Weather Prediction

To meet the goals of extreme weather event warning, this approach couples a modeling and visualization system that integrates existing NASA technologies and improves the modeling system's parallel scalability to take advantage of petascale supercomputers. It also streamlines the data flow for fast processing and 3D visualizations, and develops visualization modules to fuse NASA satellite data.

Shen, Bo-Wen↗

NASA NTRS2017

Electron Drift Resonance in the MHD-Coupled Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Model

Relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt are highly dynamic and respond to interplanetary solar wind structures interacting with the Earth's magnetic field. A known mechanism dictating electron dynamics is the drift-resonant interaction with ultralow frequency (ULF) waves. The present work simulates the ring current and radiation belt electron populations in the bounce-averaged, kinetic Comprehensive Inner Magnetosphere-Ionosphere model coupled with the Block Adaptive Tree Solar Wind Roe-type Upwind Scheme global magnetospheric magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code using an idealized ULF wave solar wind density driver. ULF waves generated with 10 min periods (at 1.67 mHz frequencies) in the MHD model are characterized and the corresponding energization of electrons and radial transport of electron phase space density is presented. The drift-resonant electron energy is determined in the simulation and is consistent with the electron resonance conditions in dipolar magnetic fields. The present results will be an important component of understanding inner magnetospheric dynamics and how these inner magnetospheric populations interact with ULF waves resulting from interplanetary solar wind structures.

Komar, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evaluation of CMIP6 Model Simulations of PM 2.5 and its Components Over China

Earth system models (ESMs) participating in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulate various components of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) as major climate forcers. Yet the model performance for PM 2.5 components remains little evaluated due in part to a lack of observational data. Here, we evaluate near-surface concentrations of PM 2.5 and its five main components over China as simulated by 14 CMIP6 models, including organic carbon (OC; available in 14 models), black carbon (BC; 14 models), sulfate (14 models), nitrate (4 models), and ammonium (5 models). For this purpose, we collect observational data between 2000 and 2014 from a satellite-based dataset for total PM2.5 and from 2469 measurement records in the literature for PM 2.5 components. Seven models output total PM 2.5 concentrations, and they all underestimate the observed total PM 2.5 over eastern China, with GFDL-ESM4 (−1.5 %) and MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM (−1.1 %) exhibiting the smallest biases averaged over the whole country. The other seven models, for which we recalculate total PM 2.5 from the available component output, underestimate the total PM 2.5 concentrations partly because of the missing model representations of nitrate and ammonium. Concentrations of the five individual components are underestimated in almost all models, except that sulfate is overestimated in MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM by 12.6 % and in MRI-ESM2-0 by 24.5 %. The underestimation is the largest for OC (by −71.2 % to −37.8 % across the 14 models) and the smallest for BC (−47.9 % to −12.1 %). The multi-model mean (MMM) reproduces the observed spatial pattern for OC (R = 0.51), sulfate (R = 0.57), nitrate (R = 0.70) and ammonium (R = 0.74) fairly well, yet the agreement is poorer for BC (R = 0.39). The varying performances of ESMs on total PM 2.5 and its components have important implications for the modeled magnitude and spatial pattern of aerosol radiative forcing.

CMIP6↗

NASA NTRS1985

Large deflection behavior of quasi-isotropic laminates under low-velocity impact type point loading

Eight-ply quasi-isotropic circular composite plates of Thornel 300 graphite in Narmco 5208 epoxy resin (T300/5208) were analyzed to obtain the large deformation behavior under low-velocity impact type point loads. A simple plate-membrane coupling model was developed. The impact type point loads were replaced by equivalent quasi-static point loads. The plate-membrane coupling model was used to obtain the large deformation shapes for the thin circular composite laminates. The analyses indicated that the large deformation shapes of the composite plates under point loads vary with the center point displacements, and hence are different for different load levels. Quasi-isotropic plates were analyzed by replacing anisotropic bending stiffness components with the equivalent flexural stiffness for the isotropic plates. The plate-membrane coupling model was verified by conducting a series of tests on clamped circular quasi-isotropic laminates. Deflected shapes for the thin composite plates were experimentally obtained. These shapes agreed well with the analytically predicted shapes.

Kelkar, A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Characteristics pertaining to a stiffness cross-coupled Jeffcott model

Rotordynamic studies of complex systems utilizing multiple degree-of-freedom analysis have been performed to understand response, loads, and stability. In order to understand the fundamental nature of rotordynamic response, the Jeffcott rotor model has received wide attention. The purpose of this paper is to provide a generic rotordynamic analysis of a stiffness cross-coupled Jeffcott rotor model to illustrate characteristics of a second order stiffness-coupled linear system. The particular characteristics investigated were forced response, force vector diagrams, response orbits, and stability. Numerical results were achieved through a fourth order Runge-Kutta method for solving differential equations and the Routh Hurwitz stability criterion. The numerical results were verified to an exact mathematical solution for the steady state response.

Spanyer, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS2018

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System: ENSO Prediction Skill and Bias

The GEOS-5 AOGCM known as S2S-1.0 has been in service from June 2012 through January 2018 (Borovikov et al. 2017). The atmospheric component of S2S-1.0 is Fortuna-2.5, the same that was used for the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), but with adjusted parameterization of moist processes and turbulence. The ocean component is the Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4). The sea ice component is the Community Ice CodE, version 4 (CICE). The land surface model is a catchment-based hydrological model coupled to the multi-layer snow model. The AGCM uses a Cartesian grid with a 1 deg × 1.25 deg horizontal resolution and 72 hybrid vertical levels with the upper most level at 0.01 hPa. OGCM nominal resolution of the tripolar grid is 1/2 deg, with a meridional equatorial refinement to 1/4 deg. In the coupled model initialization, selected atmospheric variables are constrained with MERRA. The Goddard Earth Observing System integrated Ocean Data Assimilation System (GEOS-iODAS) is used for both ocean state and sea ice initialization. SST, T and S profiles and sea ice concentration were assimilated.

GEOS-↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017: June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging.

Sea Ice↗

NASA NTRS2017

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017 July Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS1973

ERTS-1 imagery use in reconnaissance prospecting: Evaluation of commercial utility of ERTS-1 imagery in structural reconnaissance for minerals and petroleum

The author has identified the following significant results. This study was performed to investigate applications of ERTS-1 imagery in commercial reconnaissance for mineral and hydrocarbon resources. ERTS-1 imagery collected over five areas in North America (Montana; Colorado; New Mexico-West Texas; Superior Province, Canada; and North Slope, Alaska) has been analyzed for data content including linears, lineaments, and curvilinear anomalies. Locations of these features were mapped and compared with known locations of mineral and hydrocarbon accumulations. Results were analyzed in the context of a simple-shear, block-coupling model. Data analyses have resulted in detection of new lineaments, some of which may be continental in extent, detection of many curvilinear patterns not generally seen on aerial photos, strong evidence of continental regmatic fracture patterns, and realization that geological features can be explained in terms of a simple-shear, block-coupling model. The conculsions are that ERTS-1 imagery is of great value in photogeologic/geomorphic interpretations of regional features, and the simple-shear, block-coupling model provides a means of relating data from ERTS imagery to structures that have controlled emplacement of ore deposits and hydrocarbon accumulations, thus providing a basis for a new approach for reconnaissance for mineral, uranium, gas, and oil deposits and structures.

Saunders, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS2020

A Regime-Oriented Approach to Observationally Constraining Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks

The extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback is primarily due to increases in extratropical liquid cloud extent and optical depth. Here, we examine the response of extratropical (35°-75°) marine cloud liquid water path (LWP) to a uniform 4 K increase in sea surface temperature (SST) in global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and variants of the HadGEM3-GC3.1 GCM. Compositing is used to partition data into periods inside and out of cyclones. The response of extratropical LWP to a uniform SST increase and associated atmospheric response varies substantially among GCMs, but the sensitivity of LWP to cloud controlling factors (CCFs) is qualitatively similar. When all other predictors are held constant, increasing moisture flux drives an increase in LWP. Increasing SST, holding all other predictors fixed, leads to a decrease in LWP. The combinations of these changes lead to LWP, and by extension reflected SW, increasing with warming in both hemispheres. Observations predict an increase in reflected SW over oceans of 0.8 W/sq.m to 1.6 W/sq.m per K SST increase (35°N-75°N) and 1.2 W/sq.m to 1.9 W/sq.m per K SST increase (35°S- 75°S). This increase in reflected SW is mainly due to increased moisture convergence into cyclones because of increasing available moisture. The efficiency at which converging moisture is converted into precipitation determines the amount of liquid cloud. Thus, cyclone precipitation processes are critical to constraining extratropical cloud feedbacks.

extratropical shortwave (SW) cloud feedback↗

NASA NTRS2010

Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) Model - An Unified Concept for Earthquake Precursors Validation

The paper presents a conception of complex multidisciplinary approach to the problem of clarification the nature of short-term earthquake precursors observed in atmosphere, atmospheric electricity and in ionosphere and magnetosphere. Our approach is based on the most fundamental principles of tectonics giving understanding that earthquake is an ultimate result of relative movement of tectonic plates and blocks of different sizes. Different kind of gases: methane, helium, hydrogen, and carbon dioxide leaking from the crust can serve as carrier gases for radon including underwater seismically active faults. Radon action on atmospheric gases is similar to the cosmic rays effects in upper layers of atmosphere: it is the air ionization and formation by ions the nucleus of water condensation. Condensation of water vapor is accompanied by the latent heat exhalation is the main cause for observing atmospheric thermal anomalies. Formation of large ion clusters changes the conductivity of boundary layer of atmosphere and parameters of the global electric circuit over the active tectonic faults. Variations of atmospheric electricity are the main source of ionospheric anomalies over seismically active areas. Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model can explain most of these events as a synergy between different ground surface, atmosphere and ionosphere processes and anomalous variations which are usually named as short-term earthquake precursors. A newly developed approach of Interdisciplinary Space-Terrestrial Framework (ISTF) can provide also a verification of these precursory processes in seismically active regions. The main outcome of this paper is the unified concept for systematic validation of different types of earthquake precursors united by physical basis in one common theory.

Pulinets, S.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Model of coupling discharges into spacecraft structures

The calculated results of a semiempirical model for electron-caused electromagnetic pulse (ECEMP) are compared to the experimental data for three spacecraft geometries. The appropriateness of certain model assumptions which have been employed in the absence of a microscopic theory for dielectric breakdown and associated electron blowoff is discussed. Results are limited to the exterior response of spacecraft structures, although neither the model nor the experiments were limited to the outside problem. Rationales for model assumptions are provided.

Woods, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Modeling dynamically coupled fluid-duct systems with finite line elements

Structural analysis of piping systems, especially dynamic analysis, typically considers the duct structure and the contained fluid column separately. Coupling of these two systems, however, forms a new dynamic system with characteristics not necessarily described by the superposition of the two component system's characteristics. Methods for modeling the two coupled components simultaneously using finite line elements are presented. Techniques for general duct intersections, area or direction changes, long radius bends, hydraulic losses, and hydraulic impedances are discussed. An example problem and results involving time transients are presented. Additionally, a program to enhance post-processing of line element models is discussed.

Saxon, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS1986

El Nino

An attempt is made to provide the background for a coupled model of ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) with emphasis placed on the oceanography (i.e. on El Nino). Observations of the normal annual cycle in the Pacific and of the evolution of a typical El Nino event are reviewed, and a theory for the oceanography of El Nino is proposed. The influence of SST anomalies on the tropical atmosphere is assessed, and results from a numerical model for the coupled system able to generate El Nino events are presented. Implications for the real ENSO cycle are discussed. In both the model and nature, ENSO has the character of a relaxation oscillation of the coupled system, and its cycle is aperiodic. Results on the predictability of dynamical systems show the impossibility of predicting ahead several events.

Cane, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A four-dimensional primitive equation model for coupled coastal-deep ocean studies

A prototype four dimensional continental shelf/deep ocean model is described. In its present form, the model incorporates the effects of finite amplitude topography, advective nonlinearities, and variable stratification and rotation. The model can be forced either directly by imposed atmospheric windstress and surface pressure distributions, and energetic mean currents imposed by the exterior oceanic circulation; or indirectly by initial distributions of shoreward propagation mesoscale waves and eddies. To avoid concerns over the appropriate specification of 'open' boundary conditions on the cross-shelf and seaward model boundaries, a periodic channel geometry (oriented along-coast) is used. The model employs a traditional finite difference expansion in the cross-shelf direction, and a Fourier (periodic) representation in the long-shelf coordinate.

Haidvogel, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS2008

A Stable Clock Error Model Using Coupled First and Second Order Gauss-Markov Processes

Long data outages may occur in applications of global navigation satellite system technology to orbit determination for missions that spend significant fractions of their orbits above the navigation satellite constellation(s). Current clock error models based on the random walk idealization may not be suitable in these circumstances, since the covariance of the clock errors may become large enough to overflow flight computer arithmetic. A model that is stable, but which approximates the existing models over short time horizons is desirable. A coupled first- and second-order Gauss-Markov process is such a model.

Carpenter, Russell↗