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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050

Wind energy has experienced accelerated cost reduction over the past five years—far greater than predicted in a 2015 expert elicitation. Here we report results from a new survey on wind costs, compare those with previous results and discuss the accuracy of the earlier predictions. In this work, we show that experts in 2020 expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37–49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015. This is due to cost reductions witnessed over the past five years and expected continued advancements. If realized, these costs might allow wind to play a larger role in energy supply than previously anticipated. Considering both surveys, we also conclude that there is considerable uncertainty about future costs. Our results illustrate the importance of considering cost uncertainty, highlight the value and limits of using experts to reveal those uncertainties, and yield possible lessons for energy modellers and expert elicitation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Adaptability of Reinforcement Learning Based HVAC Control for Residential Houses

Intelligent Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) control using deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has recently gained a lot of attention due to its ability to optimally control the complex behavior of the HVAC system. However, more exploration is needed on understanding the adaptability challenges that the DRL agent could face during the deployment phase. Using online learning for such applications is not realistic due to the long learning period and likely poor comfort control during the learning process. Alternatively, DRL can be pre-trained using a building model prior to deployment. However, developing an accurate building model for every house and deploying a pre-trained DRL model for HVAC control would not be cost-effective. In this study, we focus on evaluating the ability of DRL-based HVAC control to provide cost savings when pre-trained on one building model and deployed on different house models with varying user comforts. We observed around 30% of cost reduction by pre-trained model over baseline when validated in a simulation environment and achieved up to 21% cost reduction when deployed in the real house. This finding provides experimental evidence that the pre-trained DRL has the potential to adapt to different house environments and comfort settings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscopic analyses of the impact of morphology and operating conditions on the transport resistances in a proton-exchange-membrane fuel-cell catalyst layer

Exploring the origins of local transport resistance and characterizing the oxygen transport resistances in the catalyst layer (RCL) are critical for cost reduction. In this paper, a comprehensive mesoscopic model for simulating coupled transport processes of oxygen and water vapor for different structural parameters under different operating conditions in reconstructed microstructures is proposed. The local transport resistance is calculated after achieving the limiting current density and the effective diffusivity of oxygen. The results demonstrate that RCL increases greatly with decreasing platinum loading (LPt) and the transport resistances in other components of the cell dominate for high-loadings. Both the reduced oxygen permeation coefficient in the ionomer thin-film and the adsorption resistance account for the origins of local transport resistance. The local transport resistance increases with the bare carbon ratio for a constant LPt and Pt/C ratio due to the decreased effective ionomer surface, and increases with the I/C ratio due to the increased ionomer thickness and decreased Knudsen diffusivity. Due to the presence of liquid water, a slight decrease followed by an increase of the local transport resistance versus relative humidity is obtained. The contribution of ionomer thin-films to RCL is more sensitive to liquid saturation compared with that of pores. This journal is

Mu, YT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shared mooring system designs and cost estimates for wave energy arrays

For floating renewable energy devices to become more cost-efficient and commercially scalable, their mooring system designs must be low-cost and suited for large-scale installations. Large arrays of floating devices, such as wave energy converters (WECs), will likely be designed with an individual mooring system for each device in the array. However, new mooring technology advancements provide options to use shared mooring lines to connect adjacent devices to one another, reducing the total number of anchors in the array, thereby reducing material use and cost. Here, this paper explores the design, modeling, and cost analysis of shared mooring systems for various sizes of arrays consisting of heaving oscillating water column (OWC) WECs. Shared mooring systems for WEC arrays sized in 2 x N and N x N grid layouts are designed to meet the relevant design standards, checking their performance with a nonlinear time-domain dynamic simulation, and the costs of each are calculated and compared. Several assumptions are taken in the design process to produce efficient results, providing a preliminary optimization for guidance on design decisions rather than a full, detailed design analysis. Mooring system costs per WEC were found to decrease as the number of WECs in the array increase, up to certain array sizes. The 2 x 3 array had the lowest mooring system cost per WEC out of all arrays considered, with a 60% cost reduction relative to using individual mooring systems. The 3 x 3 and 4 x 4 arrays achieved a 50% cost per WEC reduction. In addition to these significant cost reductions, the shared mooring system designs can provide advantages through smaller mooring system footprints, lower installation times, and less seabed disturbance.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing an Integrated Renewable-Electrolysis System

Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. With growing amounts of renewable generation on the California grid, there is downward pressure on wholesale electricity prices, particularly during the afternoon from photovoltaics (PV). These lower, or even potentially negative prices, challenge the business cases for new and existing PV plants. In addition, as the grid transitions to less flexible generation, there is greater need for system flexibility. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. The optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations where PV is already installed. The six market configurations include islanded, separated, retail, net energy metering (NEM), hybrid retail/wholesale and wholesale. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen price over the lifetime of the equipment is calculated. The cost includes production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams include the sale of hydrogen, low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale rate optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in the order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). The resulting system design balances between the capital and maintenance cost components, the operation costs (i.e., electricity costs) and the additional market revenues. The integration of solar PV and electrolysis is shown to provide a mutually beneficial relationship. For PV, integration with electrolysis offers the potential to hedge against wholesale market price volatility, and integration with electrolysis may offer the potential to defer or avoid transmission investment to deliver power to the point-of-use and instead use it on-site. When compared with SMR without considering any renewable hydrogen premiums, this study finds that PV + Electrolysis systems with current costs are likely not competitive; however, with cost reductions for electrolysis equipment consistent with DOE projections, it was found that systems with wholesale market access would be competitive, largely on account of both low capital costs and low-cost electricity. The electrolysis units can provide greater flexibility than is required based on retail rate optimization, so there is an opportunity for a utility or CAISO to increase system flexibility with PV + Electrolysis systems in return for commensurate compensation. In this way, there are potentially several solutions that fall between the hybrid configuration and the wholesale configuration that could provide sufficient compensation for a PV + Electrolysis unit to compete with SMR while also providing greater flexibility to the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Direct Air Capture Using Novel Structured Adsorbents (DE-FE0031959 Final Technical Report)

The objective of this project was to advance direct air capture (DAC) technology through a novel combination of a vacuum-temperature swing CO 2 adsorption process and structured adsorbent beds (SABs). The technical approach was to construct and operate an Integrated DAC System (IDS) at a test facility in Orange County, California. A 30 kilogram per day (kg/day) integrated field test unit was deployed into the field for testing, producing a concentrated CO 2 stream of at least 95% purity. A novel combination of DAC process and hardware with a transformational structured adsorbent laminate filter was fielded and tested at this site. The field testing also captured operational data on the novel process and material combination under real conditions. Data from this were used to advise techno-economic and life cycle analyses (TEA/LCA) of the technology. Despite the early development status and IDS aiming at field validation at TRL 5 rather than commercial scale operations, these analyses give valuable indications of this new technology route’s potential for cost reductions in DAC-based carbon dioxide removal. Climeworks and Svante are committed to further development of the technology route, including the realization of existing further cost reduction potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transactive HVAC Agent - Design and Performance Evaluation

Transactive energy systems are playing an increasingly important role in the efficient and reliable marketbased operation of the power grid. Since a significant portion of the residential building energy consumption is from heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, HVAC is one of the most promising resources to provide load flexibility. However, utilizing HVAC flexibility to provide various grid services while simultaneously maintaining consumer comfort and cost-reductions is challenging. This paper presents a design of a transactive HVAC agent (T-HVAC) to be used as a supervisory control for the HVAC system that can simultaneously ensure comfort and cost-reduction. In particular, the T-HVAC a) estimates HVAC thermal dynamics, b) ensures optimal operations of the HVAC system, and c) participates into markets, and d) implements a market-based control via controlling the thermostat temperature set-point. The T-HVAC performance is demonstrated through multiple scenarios and illustrations.

Demand flexibility, distribution system, HVAC, Tra↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design of a 3.4-MW wind turbine with integrated plasma actuator-based load control

Historically, cost reduction in wind energy has been accomplished by increasing hub heights and rotor diameters to capture more energy per turbine. The growth in rotor and turbine costs with increasing turbine sizes is also driven by the additional structure that must be added to withstand unsteady aerodynamic loads caused by turbulence, gusts, wind shear, misaligned yaw, upwind wakes, and the tower shadow. In this paper, we present a holistic design solution to integrate active load control using a controllable Gurney flap based on plasma actuators. We illustrate the design solution for a land-based 3.4-MW wind turbine rotor. Comparisons to a baseline reference 3.4-MW wind turbine show significant load reduction (15–18% DEL reduction for flap-wise blade root moments), rotor mass reduction (5–8%), and LCOE reduction (1.16–3.11%). To achieve these results, a comprehensive sequential-iterative design procedure is introduced to integrate the controllable Gurney flap into the turbine design and to drive the design solution toward the best LCOE reduction solution. Results are presented for mapping fatigue load reductions into cost reductions. In addition, an evaluation of active load control extended from Region-III to also include Region-II showed a further 34% reduction in DEL.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Economics-by-Design Approach Applied to a Heat Pipe Microreactor Concept

Microreactors present a potential paradigm shift in the nuclear industry. Emphasis thus far has been on large-scale multi-billion-dollar projects that cater solely to grid electricity market. These projects can be challenging to finance and execute. On the other hand, microreactors are intended to target a wide variety of smaller niche markets and are expected to be factory-fabricated and more readily deployable. While diseconomies of scale for microreactors may tend to raise their costs per energy output (MWh) relative to large nuclear plants, offsetting gains can be expected from standardization, simplification, passive safety, lower radionuclide inventories, factory fabrication, fast installation, and low financing costs. To adequately assess these contributions, designers should have a different perspective on cost drivers than for large nuclear plants and can utilize novel approaches for systematic cost reduction. To account for these important aspects of microreactors, this report proposes an economics-by-design approach that places economic considerations at the center of the design process. The methodology builds on existing frameworks such as design-to-cost and value engineering, expanding them to new markets (beyond the grid), new attributes (beyond costs alone), and introducing the approach at earlier points in the design cycle. Design parameters and technical specifications are systematically evaluated until costs meet market entry points, while also providing the high-priority performance attributes of the particular use case. Determining first-order estimates for different components early in the process enables designers to focus R&D efforts on the biggest overall cost contributors and components with the most cost uncertainty. The analysis is always guided by market needs and threshold prices. In addition to microreactors, the approach is expected to be useful for other classes of nuclear reactors as well. The analysis was applied to a concept found in the open literature (the Design A heat-pipe reactor). A comprehensive bottom-up estimate was generated by leveraging a new microreactor-specific code of accounts and a range of cost equations. The initial estimate for levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) unsurprisingly exceeded market ranges since the use case had prioritized technological readiness over economic considerations in design choices. An alternate concept was then proposed, with various assumptions/targets made to reduce the largest cost contributors. Changes in the neutron spectrum, the power output, and building structures were found to make even the first-of-a-kind of this modified concept competitive with diesel generation in some remote communities. Learning rate (LR) assumptions indicated cost reductions achieved from sequential unit deployments could expand the range of competitiveness to include additional markets as deployments proceed.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced pathways for hydrogen production: a collective view from a technical experts meeting

Hydrogen is an essential fuel and feedstock that can be produced in multiple ways to meet requirements for technological sectors that include energy storage, transportation, petroleum refining, and ammonia synthesis. To consider the future state of hydrogen manufacturing, a team of experts has assembled and examined three emerging hydrogen production technologies – photoelectrochemical, biological, and thermochemical. Each of these emerging technologies holds significant long-term potential for cost reduction while lowering industrial emissions associated with conventional methods of hydrogen manufacture (e.g., steam methane reforming) by using sunlight and renewable resources as primary sources of energy and feedstock, respectively. All three are currently at low technology readiness levels, however their applications, cost reduction opportunities and performance improvement pathways are under active development. In this work, opportunities and outlook for research that can directly advance the technologies are discussed.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Supporting Document 5 Considerations on Learning

Learning refers here to the increased experience associated to each new build of a given type of fuel cycle facility, which results generally in design improvements, increased construction and operational efficiencies and reduced mistakes, and therefore in reduced costs. These are important considerations, for example, when modeling transitions from first-of-a-kind (FOAK) to nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) nuclear facilities and deciding the magnitude of the cost reduction (if any) to be applied to each successive build. Different assumptions on learning can significantly affect the results of the economic analyses during transitions. Other competing electricity-generation technologies, such as wind and solar power for example, have demonstrated substantial cost reductions through learning during the last few decades.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A systems engineering vision for floating offshore wind cost optimization

The U.S. offshore wind resource potential is immense, and often in close proximity to densely-populated coastal load centers. In many U.S. coastal areas, water depths favor the deployment of floating over fixed-bottom offshore wind technology. Floating offshore wind plants have the potential to be cost-competitive with fixed-bottom installations, but because the technology has not yet been deployed at commercial scale, it is not clear when and with what configurations this potential cost parity can be achieved. This article first reviews the state of floating offshore wind technology and deployments to identify key gaps that must be addressed to bring down the overall cost of energy produced. The article then puts forth a long-term vision for a research program and design methodology that may be able to push floating wind plants toward a lower levelized cost of energy than fixed-bottom offshore wind. The method involves a fully integrated systems-engineering and techno-economic design approach to capture the complex interactions between the physics, manufacturing, installation, and operation of floating wind turbines to achieve transformational cost reductions. The approach also envisions multifidelity and uncertainty management strategies to examine the most robust and viable concepts in the design trade-space. To better focus the computational resources, engineering lessons learned from existing offshore wind systems and concept studies are used to develop a set of criteria that can be applied to prefilter candidate technology building blocks that have the greatest cost reduction potential.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Impact of Mass Production on Microreactor Costs

Microreactors have attracted significant attention and investment. By virtue of their smaller size (typically less than ~20 MWe), they are expected to be significantly easier to build, demonstrate, and deploy than larger reactors. This has led to several U.S. companies pursuing active demonstration efforts with a wide variety of designs under development. For example, the Ultra Safe Nuclear Corporation (USNC), has recently announced they are planning to build a microreactor assembly plant in Alabama. The cost reduction of the microreactors via factory fabrication and mass production is expected to be the primary driver to the economic competitiveness of microreactors. While several entities are focused on first-of-a-kind demonstration of the technology, it is important to provide insights on longer-term considerations for mass production. The evaluation shown here was conducted primarily in collaboration with Munro & Associates Inc. The findings of this microreactor factory fabrication and mass production study were recently published in. In this paper, we start by summarizing the findings of this study. Next, we apply these findings to quantify the cost reduction of a heat pipe-cooled fast reactor (as an example of microreactors).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Drive Cycles, Battery Pack Scaling, and Usage Considerations for Long-Haul and Regional-Haul Electric Trucks

Electrifying Class-8 heavy-duty trucks presents a promising opportunity to enhance energy efficiency and reduce freight transport costs. Battery electric trucks (BETs), once considered niche, are gaining traction due to advancements in battery technology and cost reductions. However, accurately predicting battery lifespan under realistic usage conditions remains a key challenge. Understanding battery failure mechanisms and their links to design, operation, and management is essential for developers and fleet operators. This study introduces a method to develop simplified, lab-testable dynamic stress test (DST) cycles for regional and long-haul Class-8 BETs, derived from real-world diesel truck usage. These DSTs enable benchmarking of battery technologies, identification of aging stressors, and optimization of battery design, life, and cost. The approach supports evaluation of key metrics such as levelized cost of driving and total cost of ownership, aiding fair comparisons and adoption decisions. We also propose feasible battery pack sizes that meet current driving demands with strategic charging, and a method to scale pack-level DSTs to cell-level cycles for lab-based testing. These tools facilitate tradeoff analysis across battery chemistries, pack sizing, and charging strategies, while offering means to get insights into battery aging under realistic conditions-ultimately supporting informed BET deployment decisions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Manufacturing of Cathode Materials for Lithium-ion Batteries

Original objectives (per the Statement of Project Objectives) centered on developing and translating a continuous pilot process for cathode materials production while targeting (i) a 29% manufacturing cost reduction, (ii) an 82% energy consumption reduction for cathode production, and (iii) a doubling of manufacturing productivity. Planned validation included characterization at appropriate analytical facilities and electrochemical performance evaluation progressing from half-cells to pouch-cell formats, with a pathway to kilogram-scale production of finished cathode materials for representative testing. Scope evolution: During execution, the project team identified that the surfactant-enabled chemistry offered high selectivity for lithium precipitation from brine sources. A formal scope revision shifted the final project year from cathode manufacturing development to direct lithium extraction/lithium recovery, while maintaining the overarching intent of cost reduction and process simplification relevant to the battery supply chain.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observations and Lessons Learned From Installing Residential Roofing-Integrated Photovoltaics

Building-sited solar photovoltaics (PV) could play a key role in decarbonizing the building sector either through racked and mounted PV or through Building-integrated PV (BIPV). BIPV is installed into the building envelope itself, with solar cells and/or modules forming the outer layer of a building structure, thus transforming a single-purpose structure into one that serves the dual purposes of the building envelope and electricity. BIPV can be applied to building roofs, facades, awnings, pergolas, windows, skylights, balustrades, and other external surfaces. Given BIPV products vary widely, the focus of this research is residential roofing integrated PV (RIPV), where solar is incorporated into or otherwise replaces the roofing material. Previous research suggests that residential RIPV could reduce customer acquisition, labor, supply chain, and equipment costs. These products have yet to realize these cost savings and deployment remains significantly less than conventional rooftop PV as a relative share of the addressable market in the US. One potential barrier to broader residential roofing integrated PV deployment may be higher costs relative to conventional rooftop PV, primarily because the design and installation of these products is still evolving. Here, we explore residential RIPV cost-reduction opportunities by analyzing installation processes. Our study documents residential RIPV installations at 2 reroofing sites and the equivalent of 9 new construction sites in California through a methodology known as time and motion study. We also conducted interviews with subject-matter experts to identify barriers and solutions to maximize these products' market penetration. Our time and motion study breaks the RIPV installation process into four steps: 1) staging, unloading, and roof preparation; 2) fire resistant underlayment(s) (synthetic material laid between roof shingles and roof deck); 3) flashings and PV installation; and 4) wiring and monitoring. We measure the time required for each step in terms of worker-hours, representing an hour of labor from a single worker. We further normalize process time by dividing worker-hours by kilowatt (kW) of system capacity. The most time-intensive step was flashings and PV installation, taking around 2.4 worker-hours per kW on average and accounting for around 60% of the process time for an average installation. The total installation process took on average about 6.4 and 3.5 worker-hours per kW at the reroofing sites and new construction sites, respectively. For comparison, a previous time and motion study documented a time of 6.9 worker-hours per kW for conventional rooftop PV. The shorter RIPV installation times are consistent with previous studies suggesting that RIPV could be installed faster than conventional rooftop PV. The time and motion results and feedback from interviewees provide insights into potential residential RIPV cost reduction opportunities. Several interviewees suggested that these products would be more efficient if PV installation was more fully integrated into the roofing/construction industries, which currently use separate supply chains and skillsets. Further integration could reduce supply chain delays and labor force redundancies. Future research could explore specific ways to integrate these industries to help realize the cost savings potential of RIPV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Diesel Fuel Consumption in Prominent U.S. Open-Pit Mines: Site-Level Estimates

This report presents a comprehensive framework for estimating diesel fuel consumption and prices at open-pit mines in the United States. The framework includes transparent methods for calculating site-level diesel energy use when direct reporting is unavailable, and a structured confidence evaluation for each method. The framework is demonstrated to estimate current diesel consumption at 21 open-pit mines in the United States. Initial findings support ongoing efforts to strengthen the competitiveness and security of the U.S. industrial base by supporting data-driven supply chain analysis and decision-making, improved transparency in mining sector energy use, and targeted deployment of energy innovation and cost-reduction strategies. Future updates to the dataset—coupled with expanded data transparency and method validation—will help ensure that the findings remain relevant as the sector continues to evolve.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lower Temperature Annealing of Vapor Diffused Nb₃Sn for Accelerator Cavities

Nb₃Sn is a next-generation superconducting material for the accelerator cavities with higher critical temperature and superheating field, both twice compared to Nb. It promises superior performance and higher operating temperature than Nb, resulting in significant cost reduction. So far, the Sn vapor diffusion method is the most preferred and successful technique to coat niobium cavities with Nb₃Sn. Although several post-coating techniques (chemical, electrochemical, mechanical) have been explored to improve the surface quality of the coated surface, an effective process has yet to be found. Since there are only a few studies on the post-coating heat treatment at lower temperatures, we annealed Nb₃Sn-coated samples at 800 C - 1000 C to study the effect of heat treatments on surface properties, primarily aimed at removing surface Sn residues. This paper discusses the systematic surface analysis of coated samples after annealing at temperatures between 850 C and 950 C.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗