Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Cost allocation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Port Technical Assistance Program: A Proposed Initiative to Support U.S. Ports Through Energy Innovation

This document highlights the crucial importance of the maritime sector within the United States (U.S.) economy, serving as a key node for trade and global goods transportation. U.S. ports are currently grappling with challenges posed by rising shipping demands, the health impacts of diesel fuel reliance, and the technology adoptions of global trade partners due to increasing environmental regulations. This document proposes forming a technical assistance program, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), to help U.S. ports transition to sustainable energy solutions that not only improve environmental and community outcomes, but also enhance resilience to unexpected weather events and reduce pressure on local utilities. Coordinated by PNNL, this initiative would offer a web-based platform of consolidated resources and tools for comprehensive strategic planning and cost-benefit analysis. It also seeks to establish a collaborative network between ports and national laboratories to facilitate the sharing of best practices. The document suggests that optimizing resource allocation and providing tailored support could be achieved through strategic categorization of ports within this network, with relevant attributes and examples detailed in the report. The anticipated benefits of such a program could include increased efficiency and cost savings in port operations and the advancement of scientific innovation via alternative energy research. Also, it could enhance economic growth and competitiveness in international trade by enabling ports to meet shipping demands and develop resilient critical infrastructure through informed, long-term strategies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Objective Approach for Optimizing Edge-Based Resource Allocation Using TOPSIS

Existing approaches for allocating resources on edge environments are inefficient and lack the support of heterogeneous edge devices, which in turn fail to optimize the dependency on cloud infrastructures or datacenters. To this extent, we propose in this paper OpERA, a multi-layered edge-based resource allocation optimization framework that supports heterogeneous and seamless execution of offloadable tasks across edge, fog, and cloud computing layers and architectures. By capturing offloadable task requirements, OpERA is capable of identifying suitable resources within nearby edge or fog layers, thus optimizing the execution process. Throughout the paper, we present results which show the effectiveness of our proposed optimization strategy in terms of reducing costs, minimizing energy consumption, and promoting other residual gains in terms of processing computations, network bandwidth, and task execution time. We also demonstrate that by optimizing resource allocation in computation offloading, it is then possible to increase the likelihood of successful task offloading, particularly for computationally intensive tasks that are becoming integral as part of many IoT applications such robotic surgery, autonomous driving, smart city monitoring device grids, and deep learning tasks. The evaluation of our OpERA optimization algorithm reveals that the TOPSIS MCDM technique effectively identifies optimal compute resources for processing offloadable tasks, with a 96% success rate. Moreover, the results from our experiments with a diverse range of use cases show that our OpERA optimization strategy can effectively reduce energy consumption by up to 88%, and operational costs by 76%, by identifying relevant compute resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year –1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year –1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Furthermore, our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contribution of carbon pricing to meeting a mid-century net zero target

A mid-century net zero target creates a challenge for reducing the emissions of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors with high cost mitigation options. These sectors include aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Available studies agree that decarbonization of these sectors is possible by mid-century if more ambitious policies are implemented soon. Existing carbon pricing policies have had limited impact on the emissions of these sectors because their marginal abatement costs almost always exceed the tax rate or allowance price. But emissions trading systems with free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors have minimized the adverse economic impacts and associated leakage. Internationally coordinated policies are unlikely, so implementing more ambitious policies creates a risk of leakage. This paper presents policy packages a country can implement to accelerate emission reduction by these sectors with minimal risk of leakage. To comply with international trade law the policy packages differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and producers whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic industry, support innovation and generate revenue. The revenue can be used to assist groups adversely impacted by the domestic price and production changes due to carbon pricing and to build public support for the policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data for Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year–1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year–1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.

Field Data↗
DOE OSTI2019

Risk-informed Physical Security Using Dynamic Force-on-Force Modelling Tools (ABSTRACT)

Physical security requirement of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the US is regulated in a mainly prescriptive manner. This “one size fits all” approach may consequently overlook plant-specific characteristics which are beneficial for the inherent safety and security of the plant. Although a performance-based security measure has been promulgated in 10 CFR 73.55(r), current evaluation methods generally emphasize static and conservative assumptions on physical security uncertainties. This conservatism contributes to the overall operational and maintenance costs, which account to 70% of total operating expenditures for an NPP. This paper describes an ongoing work at the Idaho National Laboratory within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability pathway, which aims to optimize physical protection system with regards to system effectiveness and dollar costs. To achieve this goal, a risk-informed approach to physical security is proposed. This approach leverages the Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool to model facility infiltration and Force-on-Force (FoF) engagement in a dynamic manner. The dynamic FoF analysis was conducted by coupling human performance uncertainties modeled in EMRALD to existing commercial 3-dimensional FoF software, i.e. SCRIBE3D, AVERT and Simajin. Meanwhile, risk analysis was accomplished by coupling the attack outcomes to existing plant Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) model with FLEX strategy. This approach reduces the conservatisms in security modeling and further acknowledges the possibility for plant operators to mitigate the attack outcomes. A sabotage attack on a hypothetical NPP facility was devised to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Dynamic FoF rules were implemented in EMRALD coupled to SCRIBE3D. This dynamic evaluation revealed an additional 21% system effectiveness in protecting the target set relative to the static modelling approach. Furthermore, the conditional core damage probability could be reduced by up to 46% by crediting operator actions in mitigating the sabotage outcomes. We evaluated the relative importance of each component of the physical security posture included in the model and assessed tradeoffs between components to identify potential opportunities for cost reduction while maintaining a specific level of system effectiveness. Results of the cost analysis will be presented in the conference. This study is expected to help NPP operators in allocating resources optimally to satisfy the security requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methods and systems for evaluating data transportability in distribution grids

This document describes systems and techniques for evaluating and improving distribution-grid data transportability. These systems and techniques allow engineers to quantify the data transportability of a communication system within or connected to a distribution grid, which represents an ability to transport in real-time telemetry from source locations (e.g., sensors in the distribution grid) to control mechanisms. Distribution engineers can use the sensor readings to perform grid analytics, control operating parameters, and operate protection systems. Distribution engineers can also use the transportability of the communication system to evaluate the observability of the distribution grid, which represents an ability to combine actual measurements and various types of computations (e.g., analytics, estimators, forecasters) from a system model. Distribution engineers can then generate a sensor allocation plan that indicates the number and location of sensors to maximize observability for a fixed sensor cost and/or minimize sensor cost for predetermined observability.

Taft, Jeffrey D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fair Concurrent Training of Multiple Models in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) enables collaborative learning across multiple clients. In most FL work, all clients train a single learning task. However, the recent proliferation of FL applications may increasingly require multiple FL tasks to be trained simultaneously, sharing clients’ computing resources, which we call Multiple-Model Federated Learning (MMFL). Current MMFL algorithms use naïve average-based client-task allocation schemes that often lead to unfair performance when FL tasks have heterogeneous difficulty levels, as the more difficult tasks may need more client participation to train effectively. Furthermore, in the MMFL setting, we face a further challenge that some clients may prefer training specific tasks to others, and may not even be willing to train other tasks, e.g., due to high computational costs, which may exacerbate unfairness in training outcomes across tasks. We address both challenges by firstly designing FedFairMMFL, a difficulty-aware algorithm that dynamically allocates clients to tasks in each training round, based on the tasks’ current performance levels. We provide guarantees on the resulting task fairness and FedFairMMFL’s convergence rate. We then propose novel auction designs that incentivizes clients to train multiple tasks, so as to fairly distribute clients’ training efforts across the tasks, and extend our convergence guarantees to this setting. Here, we finally evaluate our algorithm with multiple sets of learning tasks on real world datasets, showing that our algorithm improves fairness by improving the final model accuracy and convergence speed of the worst performing tasks, while maintaining the average accuracy across tasks.

Federated learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (Final Report)

Within the Partnership Center for High-Fidelity Boundary Plasma Simulation (HBPS), work at UT-Austin was aimed at improved verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) for edge plasma simulations and on performing gyrokinetics simulations of pedestal instabilities and turbulence in order to expand foundational understanding of pedestal transport. Regarding VVUQ, the accomplishments can be summarized as follows. First, it was shown that the Moment Preserving Constrained Resampling technique, when applied periodically in particle-in-cell simulations in the XGC code, can dramatically improve the accuracy of the simulation at essentially equivalent computational cost. Second, a technique for estimating model correlations, which are required to solve the model selection and sample allocation problem in multifidelity UQ techniques, without sampling the highest fidelity, most computationally expensive model, was developed and demonstrated. Third, previously developed methods for estimating statistical and discretization errors were applied to numerical methods relevant to edge plasma simulations, namely in particle-in-cell-based approaches, and shown to work. Finally, benchmark studies for comparing gyrokinetic codes were developed and performed, leading to reasonable agreement between four commonly used codes. Regarding physics studies, gyrokinetic simulations to investigate microtearing modes in the DIII-D pedestal were performed using the GENE code.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods and systems for evaluating and improving distribution-grid observability

This document describes systems and techniques for evaluating and improving distribution-grid observability. These systems and techniques allow engineers to quantify the observability of a distribution grid, which represents an ability to combine actual measurements and various types of computations (e.g., analytics, estimators, forecasters), from a system model. Distribution engineers can also identify islands of observability where operating parameters, including voltages, currents, and power flows, can be determined from available sensor readings. By exclusion, distribution engineers can similarly identify areas of the distribution grid with observability deficiencies that may require additional instrumentation to maintain proper operation. Distribution engineers, using an iterative or automated process, can determine the observability of the system model with new or relocated sensors to generate a sensor allocation plan. The sensor allocation plan can indicate the number and location of sensors to either maximize observability for a fixed sensor cost or minimize sensor cost for predetermined observability.

Reiman, Anthony P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Theoretical evidence that root penetration ability interacts with soil compaction regimes to affect nitrate capture

Abstract Background and Aims Although root penetration of strong soils has been intensively studied at the scale of individual root axes, interactions between soil physical properties and soil foraging by whole plants are less clear. Here we investigate how variation in the penetration ability of distinct root classes and bulk density profiles common to real-world soils interact to affect soil foraging strategies. Methods We utilize the functional–structural plant model ‘OpenSimRoot’ to simulate the growth of maize (Zea mays) root systems with variable penetration ability of axial and lateral roots in soils with (1) uniform bulk density, (2) plow pans and (3) increasing bulk density with depth. We also modify the availability and leaching of nitrate to uncover reciprocal interactions between these factors and the capture of mobile resources. Key Results Soils with plow pans and bulk density gradients affected overall size, distribution and carbon costs of the root system. Soils with high bulk density at depth impeded rooting depth and reduced leaching of nitrate, thereby improving the coincidence of nitrogen and root length. While increasing penetration ability of either axial or lateral root classes produced root systems of comparable net length, improved penetration of axial roots increased allocation of root length in deeper soil, thereby amplifying N acquisition and shoot biomass. Although enhanced penetration ability of both root classes was associated with greater root system carbon costs, the benefit to plant fitness from improved soil exploration and resource capture offset these. Conclusions While lateral roots comprise the bulk of root length, axial roots function as a scaffold determining the distribution of these laterals. In soils with high soil strength and leaching, root systems with enhanced penetration ability of axial roots have greater distribution of root length at depth, thereby improving capture of mobile resources.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonization Scenarios in the United States: Comparing Biofuels Growth in Two Models - GCAM and BSM

Scenarios for deep decarbonization rely on biomass for biofuels, biopower, and bioproducts, often including negative emissions via carbon capture and storage or utilization. Despite the prominence of biomass in many deep decarbonization pathways, critical questions remain about biomass allocation, effects of transportation electrification, the pace of growth, and implications for agriculture and land use. We address these questions through a unique comparison of carbon pricing effects on the growth of biomass utilization and its effects on land use in the United States by comparing results from a multisectoral integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model [GCAM], with results from a biomass-to-biofuels system dynamics model, the Biomass Scenario Model [BSM]. We contribute to model comparison efforts by analyzing the biomass deployment needed for a scenario consistent with a "Middle of the Road" Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP2] and a representative concentration pathway of 2.6 W/m2. The GCAM scenarios solve for global equilibrium conditions that are consistent with this pathway, including demands for biomass across all economic sectors and representing bioenergy with carbon capture and storage as a technology option. The BSM scenarios assess those biomass and biofuel results for the United States and identify challenges associated with that pace and amount of expansion. In the scenario analysis, we harmonize key factors such as carbon price trajectory, domestic ethanol fuel demand, ethanol blending, and arable land availability, and vary them in both models. In GCAM, we vary the carbon price, transportation electrification, ethanol blending constraints, and arable land availability inputs and the value of the carbon in land; in BSM, in addition to directly inputting certain GCAM results, we vary the maximum rate of biorefinery construction, flexibility of feedstock types across conversion processes, and policy incentives such as tax credits and renewable identification number payments. The selected carbon price trajectory results in a rapid increase in biofuel production in the United States, reaching about 9.4 EJ/year in 2060 in the highest scenario analyzed in GCAM. Results differ between the two models in timing and ultimate quantity of biomass and biofuel production. GCAM biofuel quantities generally exceed BSM amounts because CCS is applied to biofuel pathways in GCAM, and because of differences in capacity expansion and related dynamics of land allocation, biomass production, and price dynamics. These dynamics include rapid biorefinery capacity expansion in high demand cases. To satisfy this biomass demand, GCAM rapidly equilibrates land allocation, but the BSM limits the rate at which this re-allocation can occur. A further contrast with the equilibrium approach in GCAM is that the BSM represents a delay between planting and harvesting woody biomass resources. As a result of these model contrasts, feedstock costs in BSM increase more than in GCAM, and the absence of CCS in the BSM also reduces the relative economic attractiveness of biofuels production. The bottlenecks, lags, and price increases also lead to potential for volatility in feedstock price and land allocation to biomass in the BSM. GCAM has more biomass production than BSM in all scenarios, partly because of the broader, economy-wide coverage of GCAM, in contrast to BSM's exclusive focus on biofuels. In both models, trends like those of biofuels production were observed for biomass production: minimal growth without a carbon price and policy incentives, and increases with a carbon price, particularly with carbon capture and storage, because the inputs assume that biopower and biofuels decrease greenhouse gas emissions. In high policy scenarios, biomass demand is high, and the consequent high biomass prices due to the land re-allocation bottleneck in the BSM limit biofuel production even if the biorefinery capacity is expanded. However, because biomass prices do not increase as much in the low policy scenario, growth is slower and the land-reallocation bottleneck no longer dominates, such that the effect of increased capacity can be seen. Across both the models, a change in assumptions from less to more land availability increases biofuel production in both GCAM and BSM, as the upward pressure on feedstock price and volatility are both reduced.

biofuels↗
DOE OSTI2024

Update on Parallel Process Execution in the Next Generation System Analysis Model

As of the end of 2021, 88,880 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) (44,741 MTHM in dry storage; 44,139 MTHM in wet storage) of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) were stored at various reactor sites across the United States [1]. The Office of Storage and Transportation in the Department of Energy is planning for the transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of SNF and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). To aid in this effort and inform decision-makers about the backend of the spent fuel cycle, systems analysis tools capable of analyzing the various options with respect to SNF and HLW management are being used as well as continuously improved to meet the evolving needs of the program. System analysts typically use these tools to vary underlying assumptions (shipping rates, allocation priority, available facilities, start dates, etc.) and study the implications of these changes on site clearance schedules, campaign costs, transportation infrastructure acquisition, etc.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Real-Time Multiregional Market-to-Market Congestion Management Through Exchange of Relief Cost Curve

This paper introduces a novel method for multiregional market-to-market (M2M) coordinated congestion management. It identifies shortcomings in existing M2M approaches, where Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) exchange shadow prices and relief requests to optimize congestion relief allocations across interconnected regions. Two methods are proposed to enhance flow and price convergence. The first method proposes that both Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) use state-estimator flows directly to determine relief requirements, eliminating delays and potential oscillations caused by using market flows calculated from the prior period under existing M2M approach. The second method involves exchanging transmission relief cost curves, enabling each RTOs to integrate other RTOs' relief costs curve into its real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED). This method can effectively extend the coordination to multiple transmission lines and across more than two RTOs. The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is also applied to the M2M coordination problem and compared with the proposed methods. Case studies on small and large-scale systems demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Two-Way Option Contracts That Facilitate Adaptive Water Reallocation in the Western United States

Many water markets in the western United States (U.S.) have the ability to reallocate water temporarily during drought, often as short-term water rights leases from lower value irrigated activities to higher value urban uses. Regulatory approval of water transfers, however, typically takes time and involves high transaction costs that arise from technical and legal analyses, discouraging short-term leasing. This leads municipalities to protect against drought-related shortfalls by purchasing large volumes of infrequently used permanent water rights. High transaction costs also result in municipal water rights rarely being leased back to irrigators in wet or normal years, reducing agricultural productivity. This research explores the development of a multi-year two-way option (TWO) contract that facilitates leasing from agricultural-to-urban users during drought and leasing from urban-to agricultural users during wet periods. The modeling framework developed to assess performance of the TWO contracts includes consideration of the hydrologic, engineered, and institutional systems governing the South Platte River Basin in Colorado where there is growing competition for water between municipalities (e.g., the city of Boulder) and irrigators. The modeling framework is built around StateMod, a network-based water allocation model used by state regulators to evaluate water rights allocations and potential rights transfers. Results suggest that the TWO contracts could allow municipalities to maintain supply reliability with significantly reduced rights holdings at lower cost, while increasing agricultural productivity in wet and normal years. Additionally, the TWO contracts provide irrigators with additional revenues via net payments of option fees from municipalities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Allocating Reserves in Active Distribution Systems for Tertiary Frequency Regulation

This paper proposes a cooperative game theory-based approach for reserve optimization to enable distributed energy resources (DERs) participate in tertiary frequency regulation. Tertiary frequency regulation schemes ensure that reserve requirements of primary and secondary frequency regulation are fulfilled with a minimum cost. While the available reserve from a single distribution system may not suffice tertiary frequency regulation, stacked reserve from several distribution systems can enable them participate in tertiary frequency regulation at scale. In this paper, a two-stage strategy is proposed to effectively and precisely allocate spinning reserve requirement from each DER in distribution systems. In the first stage, two types of characteristic functions are computed: worthiness index (WI) and power loss reduction (PLR). In the second stage, the equivalent Shapley values are computed based on the characteristic functions, which are used to determine distribution factors for reserve allocation among DERs. The effectiveness of the proposed method for allocating reserves among DERs is demonstrated through several case studies on modified versions of the IEEE 13-node and 33-node distribution systems.

Gautam, Mukesh↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating production cost for large-scale seaweed farms

Seaweed farming has the potential to produce feedstocks for many applications, including food, feeds, fertilizers, biostimulants, and biofuels. Seaweeds have advantages over land-based biomass in that they require no freshwater inputs and no allocation of arable land. To date, seaweed farming has not been practiced at scales relevant to meaningful biofuel production. Here we describe a techno-economic model of large-scale seaweed farms and its application to the cultivation of the cool temperate species Saccharina latissima (sugar kelp) and the tropical seaweed Eucheumatopsis isiformis. At farm scales of 1000 ha or more, our model suggests that farm gate production costs in waters up to 200 km from the onshore support base are likely to range between $\$$200 and $\$$300 per dry tonne. The model also suggests that production costs below $\$$100 per dry tonne may be achievable in some settings, which would make these seaweeds economically competitive with land-based biofuel feedstocks. While encouraging, these model results and some assumptions on which they are based require further field validation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

How to design a zero-emissions vehicle mandate? Simulating impacts on sales, GHG emissions and cost-effectiveness using the AUtomaker-Consumer Model (AUM)

We report although numerous studies investigate the impacts of policy on zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales, few address the impacts of a ZEV sales mandate and its particular design features. We use the AUtomaker-consumer Model (AUM) to simulate varying designs of a ZEV mandate in Canada's light-duty vehicle sector, requiring 30% ZEV sales by 2030. Design features include: different penalties for non-compliance, different allocations of credits per ZEV type, and the allowance of banking credits across years. For each policy design, we consider impacts on ZEV adoption, GHG emissions, consumer surplus, automaker profits, and overall policy cost-effectiveness. Results demonstrate trade-offs among the policy designs. Generally, ZEV mandate designs that are more effective at increasing ZEV adoption and decreasing GHG emissions also induce larger reductions in consumer surplus and automaker profits. To achieve the ZEV sales goal, simulations show that a higher non-compliance penalty (CDN$ 10k per credit) is needed. ZEV adoption and GHG reductions are also improved by a “One credit per ZEV” scheme, rather than a “California-style” scheme that gives multiple credits per battery-electric vehicle. Further, allowing automakers to bank credits softens the policy impact on profit and increases automaker compliance in initial years. Across these different design combinations, we find that the most cost-effective design ($CDN/tonne mitigated, including consumer surplus and automaker profits impacts) utilizes a $10k non-compliance penalty and “One credit per ZEV” system that allows banking. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of various ZEV mandate design features, and the complex trade-offs involved among various policy goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗