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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian estimation of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation for accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics

In some experiments, there might be a correlation of experimental errors such as an error caused by fabrication. The correlation of calculation errors also might exist among analyses of experiments. In the present study, considering these correlations, the cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are adjusted for the accurate prediction of neutronic characteristics. The adjustment method is derived based on Bayesian theory. The 'a posteriori' distributions of cross-section and errors of experiment and calculation are obtained by the derivation. The case study is performed by using the benchmarks of light-water moderated experiments reported in ICSBEP. The error from fuel rod fabrication and measurement are included in the experiment error, and the error from the simplification of the benchmark model is included in the calculation error. Since these errors have a positive correlation among the benchmarks, the prediction accuracy is expected to be improved by considering these correlations. For the sensitivity analysis of the correlation among benchmarks, the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error is assumed from 0.0 to 0.9. The results indicate that the prediction accuracy of the multiplication factor can be improved by increasing the correlation coefficient of experiment error and that of calculation error. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1972

Frequency dependence of ATS-1 observed micropulsations of some geophysical parameters

Low frequency oscillations in the earth's magnetic field at the synchronous orbit were observed with the magnetometer experiment on board the ATS 1 satellite since Dec. 1966. An analysis of oscillations in the range .002 f .02 H3 for the interval Dec. 1966 through Dec. 1968 is reported. It was found that the frequency of an event increases with the sum of Kp for 24 hours prior to the event midpoint. For events with duration greater than 6 hours, the product moment correlation coefficient for frequency f, and the sum Kp was R = 0.87. The best least squares linear fit to the data for these events was f = (0.32) sum Kp = 5.1. For the same events the correlation coefficient for frequency and Dst was R = -0.83.

Mason, F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Surface temperatures in the polar regions from Nimbus 7 temperature humidity infrared radiometer

Monthly surface temperatures in the Arctic and Antarctic regions have been derived from the 11.5 micrometer thermal infrared channel of the Nimbus 7 temperature humidity infrared radiometer (THIR) for a whole year in 1979 and for a winter and a summer month from 1980 through 1985. The data set shows interannual variability and provides spatial details that allow identification of temperature patterns over sea ice and ice sheet surfaces. For example, the coldest spot in the southern hemisphere is observed to be consistently in the Antarctic plateau in the southern hemisphere, while that in the northern hemisphere is usually located in Greenland, or one of three other general areas: Siberia, the central Arctic, or the Canadian Archipelago. Also, in the southern hemisphere, the amplitude of the seasonal fluctuation of ice sheet temperatures is about 3 times that of sea ice, while in the northern hemisphere, the corresponding fluctuations for the two surfaces are about the same. The main sources of error in the retrieval are cloud and other atmospheric effects. These were minimized by first choosing the highest radiance value from the set of measurements during the day taken within a 30 km by 30 km grid of each daily map. Then the difference of daily maps was taken and where the difference is greater than a certain threshold (which in this case is 12 C), the data element is deleted. Overall, the monthly maps derived from the resulting daily maps are spatially and temporally consistent, are coherent with the topograph y of the Antarctic continent and the location of the sea ice edge, and are in qualitative agreement with climatological data. Quantitatively, THIR data are in good agreement with Antarctic ice sheet surface air temperature station data with a correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a standard deviation of 2.0 C. The absolute values are not as good over the sea ice edges, but a comparison with Russian 2-m drift station temperatures shows very high correlation (with correlation coefficient at 0.998) and a standard deviation of 1.1 C. Overall, the rms error is estimated to be from 1 to 2 C, depending on the surface, while the average bias when compared with in situ data is less than 2 C.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Results of the second Round Robin on opening-load measurement conducted by ASTM Task Group E24.04.04 on crack closure measurement and analysis

A second experimental Round Robin on the measurement of the crack opening load in fatigue crack growth tests has been completed by the ASTM Task Group E24.04.04 on Crack Closure Measurement and Analysis. Fourteen laboratories participated in the testing of aluminum alloy compact tension specimens. Opening-load measurements were made at three crack lengths during constant Delta K, constant stress ratio tests by most of the participants. Four participants made opening-load measurements during threshold tests. All opening-load measurements were based on the analysis of specimens compliance behavior, where the displacement/strain was measured either at the crack mouth or the mid-height back face location. The Round Robin data were analyzed for opening load using two non-subjective analysis methods: the compliance offset and the correlation coefficient methods. The scatter in the opening load results was significantly reduced when some of the results were excluded from the analysis population based on an accept/reject criterion for raw data quality. The compliance offset and correlation coefficient opening load analysis methods produced similar results for data populations that had been screened to eliminate poor quality data.

Phillips, E. P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Geoid-to-topography ratios on Venus: A global perspective

Recently available spherical harmonic solutions for the geoid and topography of Venus are sufficiently high resolution that they can be used to address questions concerning the relationship between geoid and topography on a regional scale. We have approached this question by mapping the geoid-to-topography ratio (GTR) on a systematic global basis. For a given point on the surface, we consider the geoid and elevation values at all points on a gridded representation of those fields located within a specified distance of the reference point. From the set of paired values, we determine the correlation coefficient and the best-fitting straight line. The latter is the GTR at that position, and the former is a measure of the significance of the derived ratio. This procedure is then repeated for all points on the global grid, yielding maps of the GTR and the correlation coefficient. Unlike previous studies of the GRT on Venus, this apprach permits us to make an objective and systematic search for regions with anomalous GTR's as well as areas that do not demonstrate any strong correlation between geoid and topography. These maps can be updated regularly as new harmonic models of the Venus geoid are produced from new Magellan tracking data. This procedure permits the development of a global perspective on the relationship between GTR and venusian surface tectonics.

Simons, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2005

Phytoplankton in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas: Distributions, Dynamics and Environmental Forcing

Time-series of remotely sensed distributions of phytoplankton, sea ice, surface temperature, albedo, and clouds were examined to evaluate the impact of the variability of environmental conditions and physical forcing on the phytoplankton distribution in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas. Large-scale distributions of these parameters were studied for the first time using weekly and monthly composites from April 1998 through September 2002. The basic data set used in this study are phytoplankton pigment concentration derived from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), ice concentration obtained from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and surface temperature, cloud cover, and albedo derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Seasonal variations of the sea ice cover was observed to be the dominant environmental factor as the ice edge blooms followed the retreating marginal ice zones northward. Blooms were most prominent in the southwestern Chukchi Sea, and were especially persistent immediately north of the Bering Strait in nutrient- rich Anadyr water and in some fronts. Chlorophyll concentrations are shown to increase from a nominal value during onset of melt in April to a maximum value in mid-spring or summer depending on location. Large interannual variability of ice cover and phytoplankton distributions was observed with the year 1998 being uniquely associated with an early season occurrence of a massive bloom. This is postulated to be caused in part by a rapid response of phytoplankton to an early retreat of the sea ice cover in the Beaufort Sea region. Correlation analyses showed relatively high negative correlation between chlorophyll and ice concentration with the correlation being highest in May, the correlation coefficient being -0.45. 1998 was also the warmest among the five years globally and the sea ice cover was least extensive in the Beaufort-Khukchi Sea region, partly because of the 1997-98 El Nino. Strong correlations were noted between ice extent and surface temperature, the correlation coefficient being highest at - 0.79 in April, during the onset of the bloom period

Wang, Jian↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using a Support Vector Machine and a Land Surface Model to Estimate Large-Scale Passive Microwave Temperatures over Snow-Covered Land in North America

A support vector machine (SVM), a machine learning technique developed from statistical learning theory, is employed for the purpose of estimating passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperatures over snow-covered land in North America as observed by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) satellite sensor. The capability of the trained SVM is compared relative to the artificial neural network (ANN) estimates originally presented in [14]. The results suggest the SVM outperforms the ANN at 10.65 GHz, 18.7 GHz, and 36.5 GHz for both vertically and horizontally-polarized PMW radiation. When compared against daily AMSR-E measurements not used during the training procedure and subsequently averaged across the North American domain over the 9-year study period, the root mean squared error in the SVM output is 8 K or less while the anomaly correlation coefficient is 0.7 or greater. When compared relative to the results from the ANN at any of the six frequency and polarization combinations tested, the root mean squared error was reduced by more than 18 percent while the anomaly correlation coefficient was increased by more than 52 percent. Further, the temporal and spatial variability in the modeled brightness temperatures via the SVM more closely agrees with that found in the original AMSR-E measurements. These findings suggest the SVM is a superior alternative to the ANN for eventual use as a measurement operator within a data assimilation framework.

Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Joint Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Surface Soil Moisture into a Land Surface Model

This work tests the hypothesis that jointly assimilating satellite observations of leaf area index and surface soil moisture into a land surface model improves the estimation of land vegetation and water variables. An Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to test such hypothesis across the Contiguous United States during April 2015 – December 2018. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed for several modeled vegetation and water variables (evapotranspiration, net ecosystem exchange, and soil moisture) in terms of random errors and anomaly correlation coefficients against a set of independent validation datasets (i.e., Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model, FLUXCOM, and International Soil Moisture Network). Results show that the assimilation of leaf area index mostly improves the estimation of evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange, whereas the assimilation of surface soil moisture alone improves surface soil moisture content, especially in the western US, in terms of both root mean squared error and anomaly correlation coefficient. The joint assimilation of vegetation and soil moisture information combines the results of individual vegetation and soil moisture assimilations and reduces errors (and increases correlations with the reference datasets) in evapotranspiration, net ecosystem exchange, and surface soil moisture simulated by the land surface model. However, because soil moisture satellite observations only provide information on the water content in the top 5 cm of the soil column, the impact of the proposed data assimilation technique on root zone soil moisture is limited. This work moves one step forward in the direction of improving our estimation and understanding of land surface interactions using a multi-variate data assimilation approach, which can be particularly useful in regions of the world where ground observations are sparse or missing altogether.

Data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2022

A comparison of deep-learning-based inpainting techniques for experimental X-ray scattering

The implementation is proposed of image inpainting techniques for the reconstruction of gaps in experimental X-ray scattering data. The proposed methods use deep learning neural network architectures, such as convolutional autoencoders, tunable U-Nets, partial convolution neural networks and mixed-scale dense networks, to reconstruct the missing information in experimental scattering images. In particular, the recovered pixel intensities are evaluated against their corresponding ground-truth values using the mean absolute error and the correlation coefficient metrics. The results demonstrate that the proposed methods achieve better performance than traditional inpainting algorithms such as biharmonic functions. Overall, tunable U-Net and mixed-scale dense network architectures achieved the best reconstruction performance among all the tested algorithms, with correlation coefficient scores greater than 0.9980.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1975

Analysis of liquid rocket combustion chamber turbulence levels from diffusion data

The intensity of turbulence and the Lagrangian correlation coefficient in a liquid-rocket combustion chamber have been analytically determined from an analysis of experimental diffusion data obtained in a small rocket engine which operated at 300-psia chamber pressure and produced approximately 250 pounds thrust. Results of gas-sample measurements obtained by Orsat and gas-chromatograph techniques to determine helium-concentration profiles were analyzed on the basis of Taylor's (1921) turbulent diffusion theory to obtain turbulence flow-field parameters. The results of the analysis indicate that turbulent diffusion in a combustion chamber can be adequately modeled by the one-dimensional Taylor theory, which assumes that the intensity of turbulence is a function only of axial distance in the chamber and that the Lagrangian correlation coefficient is expressed by a power law. The results indicate a higher intensity of turbulence and lower correlation than previously expected.

Smith, L. O., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) in Digital Microwave Radiometers

Here we developed a model for determining the effects of narrowband RFI on low resolution digital correlators. Low resolution correlators rely on a theoretical inversion to obtain the input correlation coefficient from the digital output. This inversion is based on the Gaussian statistics of the input signals. In the presence of narrow-band interference, the statistics are not Gaussian and the theoretical inversion is no longer valid. The result is an error in the correlator output. We studied this phenomena for four correlator resolutions: 1, 1.5, 2, and 4 bits. The errors are significant for 1, 1.5, and 2-bit systems. We found in the presence of relatively strong interference (INR approximately greater than 0 dB) the errors can be ten's of percent. The error reduces to less than 0.03% for INR less than -16 dB. For the four-bit correlators, the errors are less than 0.03% for all cases studied. The error is also nonlinearly dependent upon input correlation coefficient.

Piepmeier, Jeffrey R.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Freeboard, Snow Depth and Sea-Ice Roughness in East Antarctica from In Situ and Multiple Satellite Data

In October 2003 a campaign on board the Australian icebreaker Aurora Australis had the objective to validate standard Aqua Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) sea-ice products. Additionally, the satellite laser altimeter on the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) was in operation. To capture the large-scale information on the sea-ice conditions necessary for satellite validation, the measurement strategy was to obtain large-scale sea-ice statistics using extensive sea-ice measurements in a Lagrangian approach. A drifting buoy array, spanning initially 50 km 100 km, was surveyed during the campaign. In situ measurements consisted of 12 transects, 50 500 m, with detailed snow and ice measurements as well as random snow depth sampling of floes within the buoy array using helicopters. In order to increase the amount of coincident in situ and satellite data an approach has been developed to extrapolate measurements in time and in space. Assuming no change in snow depth and freeboard occurred during the period of the campaign on the floes surveyed, we use buoy ice-drift information as well as daily estimates of thin-ice fraction and rough-ice vs smooth-ice fractions from AMSR-E and QuikSCAT, respectively, to estimate kilometer-scale snow depth and freeboard for other days. The results show that ICESat freeboard estimates have a mean difference of 1.8 cm when compared with the in situ data and a correlation coefficient of 0.6. Furthermore, incorporating ICESat roughness information into the AMSR-E snow depth algorithm significantly improves snow depth retrievals. Snow depth retrievals using a combination of AMSR-E and ICESat data agree with in situ data with a mean difference of 2.3 cm and a correlation coefficient of 0.84 with a negligible bias.

Markus, Thorsten↗
NASA NTRS2021

Improved Rainfall Data in the Philippines through Concurrent Use of GPM IMERG and Ground-Based Measurements

The availability of accurate and reliable rainfall data that are applicable to various phenomenological, climatological, and modeling studies is important, especially in the Philippines, which is considered to be highly vulnerable to natural hazards and a changing climate. The presented strategy involved constructing a dataset consisting of synoptic data, automatic rain gauge (ARG) measurements, and satellite data that are co-registered, consistent, and formatted in the same manner. Although sparse in number, the synoptic stations provide the most accurate rainfall information and were used as the baseline for creating the dataset. The ARGs that are within a distance of 1 km to the synoptic stations were used to determine the correction factors needed to make the synoptic and ARG data consistent. Subsequently, the corrected ARGs were used to make the satellite IMERG data consistent with both ARG and synoptic data. In case of the latter, only IMERG pixels with at least 10 ARGs within the relatively large footprint of the satellite sensor were used in estimating the required correction parameters derived from a combination of a power transform and linear regression correction techniques. The final results show good agreement of synoptic and corrected ARG data with correlation coefficients of 0.94 and 0.97 for the 10 day and monthly data, respectively, and improvement in the linear regression slope from 0.67 to 0.90 for 10 day data, and 0.70 to 0.94 for monthly data. In addition, the corrected ARG data agree well with the corrected IMERG data, with correlation coefficients of 0.88 and 0.93 for the 10 day and monthly data, respectively, and an improvement in slope from 0.66 to 0.87 for 10 day data, and 0.74 to 0.99 for monthly data. The merit of using a combined dataset is illustrated through comparative analyses of the IMERG data and spatially interpolated synoptic and ARG data. The results show general agreements in spatial patterns of rainfall across the datasets, especially in areas where in situ measurements are recorded. The observed discrepancy when ground data is limited emphasizes the need for satellite IMERG data to obtain the true spatial patterns of rainfall distribution.

rainfall↗
NASA NTRS1982

Analysis of ocean color scanner data from the Superflux III Experiment

The scanner collected data on October 15, 20, and 22, 1980. Single-channel gray-scale data products generated 5 minutes after the scanner were collected and showed details of the Chesapeake plume structure, suggesting that this quick-look capability could have potential use for experiments in real time. The Chesapeake Bay plume extended offshore about 5 nautical miles on October 15, and 7 nautical miles on October 20. Using the October 15 1980, data, a correlation coefficient of r = 0.889 was obtained between chlorophyll 'A' and the ratio of band 7 (664-684 nanometers) to band 9 (746-766 nanometers). This ratio was then used to calculate the average surface chlorophyll 'A' concentration of the water flowing out of the Chesapeak Bay. A ratio from the Ocean Color Scanner bands was created to simulate the ratio that the Multichannel Ocean Color Sensor uses to calculate chlorophyll A concentrations. Using the October 15, 1980, data set, this ratio has a correlation coefficient of r = -0.739 with the log of the chlorophyll 'A' and the ratio of band 2 minus band 4 to band 2 plus band 4 of the Ocean Color Scanner. No correlation is found between the Ocean Color Scanner data and total suspended solid measurements made on October 15, 1980.

Ohlhorst, C. W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1983

An efficient algorithm for generating random number pairs drawn from a bivariate normal distribution

An efficient algorithm for generating random number pairs from a bivariate normal distribution was developed. Any desired value of the two means, two standard deviations, and correlation coefficient can be selected. Theoretically the technique is exact and in practice its accuracy is limited only by the quality of the uniform distribution random number generator, inaccuracies in computer function evaluation, and arithmetic. A FORTRAN routine was written to check the algorithm and good accuracy was obtained. Some small errors in the correlation coefficient were observed to vary in a surprisingly regular manner. A simple model was developed which explained the qualities aspects of the errors.

Campbell, C. W.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Optimal Estimation-Based Algorithm to Retrieve Aerosol Optical Properties for GEMS Measurements Over Asia

The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is scheduled to be in orbit in 2019 onboard the GEO-KOMPSAT 2B satellite and will continuously monitor air quality over Asia. The GEMS will make measurements in the UV spectrum (300-500 nm) with 0.6 nm resolution. In this study, an algorithm is developed to retrieve aerosol optical properties from UV-visible measurements for the future satellite instrument and is tested using 3 years of existing OMI L1B data. This algorithm provides aerosol optical depth (AOD), single scattering albedo (SSA) and aerosol layer height (ALH) using an optimized estimation method. The retrieved AOD shows good correlation with Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) AOD with correlation coefficients of 0.83, 0.73 and 0.80 for heavy-absorbing fine (HAF) particles, dust and non-absorbing (NA) particles, respectively. However, regression tests indicate underestimation and overestimation of HAF and NA AOD, respectively. In comparison with AOD from the OMI/Aura Near-UV Aerosol Optical Depth and Single Scattering Albedo 1-orbit L2 Swath 13 km x 24 km V003 (OMAERUV) algorithm, the retrieved AOD has a correlation coefficient of 0.86 and linear regression equation, AOD(sub GEMS) = 1.18AOD(sub OMAERUV) + 0.09. An uncertainty test based on a reference method, which estimates retrieval error by applying the algorithm to simulated radiance data, revealed that assumptions in the spectral dependency of aerosol absorptivity in the UV cause significant errors in aerosol property retrieval, particularly the SSA retrieval. Consequently, retrieved SSAs did not show good correlation with AERONET values. The ALH results were qualitatively compared with the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) products and were found to be well correlated for highly absorbing aerosols. The difference between the attenuated-backscatter-weighted height from CALIOP and retrieved ALH were mostly closed to zero when the retrieved AOD is higher than 0.8 and SSA is lower than 0.93. Although retrieval accuracy was not significantly improved, the simultaneous consistent retrieval of AOD, SSA and ALH alone demonstrates the value of this stand-alone algorithm, given their nature for error using other methods. The use of these properties as input parameters for the air mass factor calculation is expected to improve the retrieval of other trace gases over Asia.

Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer ↗
NASA NTRS1991

Scaling of spanwise length scales in a turbulent boundary layer

The results from an experimental investigation at IIT were combined with Spalart's (1988) Direct Numerical Simulation data base to investigate the scaling of the spanwise length scales of the dominant structures in the near-wall region of a turbulent boundary layer. To achieve this goal, the scaling of the spanwise correlation coefficient between the wall-shear stress and the streamwise velocity, at various heights in the boundary layer, was studied over the Reynolds number range, 670 to 5961. In addition, the scaling of the conditional velocity field associated with high and low wall-shear stress events was examined. The results indicate that the spanwise correlation coefficient scales with inner variables for 'small' spanwise offsets.

Wark, C. E.↗