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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Comparative Evaluation of the Ability of the MYNN‐EDMF PBL Scheme in WRF Model to Reproduce Near Surface Wind Speed Over Different Topographical Types

Abstract This study systematically evaluates the performance of the Mellor‐Yamada‐Nakanishi‐Niino‐Eddy‐Diffusion‐Mass‐Flux planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating near‐surface wind speeds across various topographies in New York State (NYS). Simulated wind speeds are compared with in‐situ measurements from 22 surface sites, grouped into six topographic categories: continental plain (CT), lakeside (LS), river valley (RV), Long Island (LI), Block Island (BI), and offshore ocean (OO). A quantitative evaluation based on Relative Euclidean Distance shows that wind speeds at the OO site are the most accurately reproduced, followed by those at LI sites, while the model performs less accurately for the remaining topographic groups. Wind speeds over CT sites tend to be overestimated by approximately 1 m/s, although their diurnal variability (DV) is well captured. In contrast, the model underestimates wind DV at LS, RV, LI, and BI sites, with the largest biases occurring at LI and BI, resulting in underestimated daytime wind speed and/or overestimated nighttime wind speed. The OO winds exhibit minimal diurnal variation, accurately captured by our WRF model. The surface wind diurnal variation is closely linked to PBL development. Among the indicators of PBL development, surface potential temperature biases most strongly correlate with wind speed biases. Our WRF model faces challenges in capturing the distinctions between winds influenced by local circulations and those over continental plains, and the significantly stronger winds at OO compared to BI. Potential causes for these biases are discussed, offering pathways for improving surface wind simulations in future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Informing Nature-based Climate Solutions for the United States with the best-available science

Nature-based Climate Solutions (NbCS) are managed alterations to ecosystems designed to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While they have growing public and private support, the realizable benefits and unintended consequences of NbCS are not well understood. At regional scales where policy decisions are often made, NbCS benefits are estimated from soil and tree survey data that can miss important carbon sources and sinks within an ecosystem, and do not reveal the biophysical impacts of NbCS for local water and energy cycles. The only direct observations of ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes, for example, by eddy covariance flux towers, have not yet been systematically assessed for what they can tell us about NbCS potentials, and state-of-the-art remote sensing products and land-surface models are not yet being widely used to inform NbCS policymaking or implementation. As a result, there is a critical mismatch between the point- and tree-scale data most often used to assess NbCS benefits and impacts, the ecosystem and landscape scales where NbCS projects are implemented, and the regional to continental scales most relevant to policymaking. Here, we propose a research agenda to confront these gaps using data and tools that have long been used to understand the mechanisms driving ecosystem carbon and energy cycling, but have not yet been widely applied to NbCS. Furthermore, we outline steps for creating robust NbCS assessments at both local to regional scales that are informed by ecosystem-scale observations, and which consider concurrent biophysical impacts, future climate feedbacks, and the need for equitable and inclusive NbCS implementation strategies. We contend that these research goals can largely be accomplished by shifting the scales at which pre-existing tools are applied and blended together, although we also highlight some opportunities for more radical shifts in approach.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data driven pathway analysis and forecast of global warming and sea level rise

Climate change is a critical issue of our time, and its causes, pathways, and forecasts remain a topic of broader discussion. In this paper, we present a novel data driven pathway analysis framework to identify the key processes behind mean global temperature and sea level rise, and to forecast the magnitude of their increase from the present to 2100. Based on historical data and dynamic statistical modeling alone, we have established the causal pathways that connect increasing greenhouse gas emissions to increasing global mean temperature and sea level, with its intermediate links encompassing humidity, sea ice coverage, and glacier mass, but not for sunspot numbers. Our results indicate that if no action is taken to curb anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, the global average temperature would rise to an estimated 3.28 °C (2.46–4.10 °C) above its pre-industrial level while the global sea level would be an estimated 573 mm (474–671 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100. However, if countries adhere to the greenhouse gas emission regulations outlined in the 2021 United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP26), the rise in global temperature would lessen to an average increase of 1.88 °C (1.43–2.33 °C) above its pre-industrial level, albeit still higher than the targeted 1.5 °C, while the sea level increase would reduce to 449 mm (389–509 mm) above its 2021 mean by 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Duke Forest FACE (FACTS-I): Meteorological and Soil Data

This dataset, collected from Duke Forest Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) – Forest-Atmosphere Carbon Transfer and Storage (FACTS-I) experiment, includes variables describing the meteorological conditions above canopy, within canopy, and soil depending on the variable. The Duke FACE experiment was located in a loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) plantation established in 1983. Naturally regenerated broadleaved species including sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.) and tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera L.), mostly in the overstory, and winged elm (Ulmus alata Michx.) and red maple (Acer rubrum L.) were common in the understory. The FACE experiment commenced with two plots (plots 7-8) in 1994 (Oren et al. 2001), with six additional plots (plots 1-6) coming online on 27 August 1996. The CO2 enrichment was terminated on 31 October 2010 and post-enrichment data collection continued through 2012. Complete fertilization was applied annually to half of plots 7-8 from 1998 to 2004. The nutrient addition experiment expanded to half of plot 1-6 with a common protocol of N-fertilization in 2005. N-fertilization continued until 2012. The data range varied by sensor availability. A summary of information about variable name and data range can be found in the ‘FileDescription_[variable_name].txt’ files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy

The remaining carbon budget represents the total amount of CO 2 that can still be emitted in the future while limiting global warming to a given temperature target. Remaining carbon budget estimates range widely, however, and this uncertainty can be used to either trivialize the most ambitious mitigation targets by characterizing them as impossible, or to argue that there is ample time to allow for a gradual transition to a low-carbon economy. Neither of these extremes is consistent with our best understanding of the policy implications of remaining carbon budgets. Understanding the scientific and socio-economic uncertainties affecting the size of the remaining carbon budgets, as well as the methodological choices and assumptions that underlie their calculation, is essential before applying them as a policy tool. Here we provide recommendations on how to calculate remaining carbon budgets in a traceable and transparent way, and discuss their uncertainties and implications for both international and national climate policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation

Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of “seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable”. Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Robust future intensification of winter precipitation over the United States

We investigate 21st-century hydroclimate changes over the United States (US) during winter and the sources of projection uncertainty under three emission scenarios (SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5) using CMIP6 models. Our study reveals a robust intensification of winter precipitation across the US, except in the Southern Great Plains, where changes are very small. By the end of the 21st century, winter precipitation is projected to increase by about 2–5% K -1 over most of the US. The frequency of very wet winters is also expected to increase, with 6–7 out of 30 winters exceeding the very wet threshold under the different scenarios. Our results suggest that the enhancement of future winter precipitation is modulated largely by coupled dynamic and thermodynamic responses, though partly offset by thermodynamic responses. Overall, our results highlight a high likelihood of increasing impacts from winter precipitation due to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT): A Community Effort to Advance Collaborative Science across Weather and Climate Models

Atmospheric aerosol and chemistry modules are key elements in Earth system models (ESMs), as they predict air pollutant concentrations and properties that can impact human health, weather, and climate. The current uncertainty in climate projections is partly due to the inaccurate representation of aerosol direct and indirect forcing. Aerosol/chemistry parameterizations used within ESMs and other atmospheric models span large structural and parameter uncertainties that are difficult to assess independently of their host models. Moreover, there is a strong need for a standardized interface between aerosol/chemistry modules and the host model to facilitate portability of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations from one model to another, allowing not only a comparison between different parameterizations within the same modeling framework, but also quantifying the impact of different model frameworks on aerosol/chemistry predictions. To address this need, we have initiated a new community effort to coordinate the construction of a Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT) for use across weather and climate models. We aim to organize a series of community workshops and hackathons to design and build GIANT, which will serve as the interface between a range of aerosol/chemistry modules and the physics and dynamics components of atmospheric host models. GIANT will leverage ongoing efforts at the U.S. modeling centers focused on building next-generation ESMs and the international AeroCom initiative to implement this common aerosol/chemistry interface. GIANT will create transformative opportunities for scientists and students to conduct innovative research to better characterize structural and parametric uncertainties in aerosol/chemistry modules, and to develop a common set of aerosol/chemistry parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaporative water loss of 1.42 million global lakes

The evaporative loss from global lakes (natural and artificial) is a critical component of the terrestrial water and energy balance. However, the evaporation volume of these water bodies—from the spatial distribution to the long-term trend—is as of yet unknown. Here, using satellite observations and modeling tools, we quantified the evaporation volume from 1.42 million global lakes from 1985 to 2018. We find that the long-term average lake evaporation is 1500 ± 150 km 3 year -1 and it has increased at a rate of 3.12 km 3 year -1 . The trend attributions include an increasing evaporation rate (58%), decreasing lake ice coverage (23%), and increasing lake surface area (19%). While only accounting for 5% of the global lake storage capacity, artificial lakes (i.e., reservoirs) contribute 16% to the evaporation volume. Our results underline the importance of using evaporation volume, rather than evaporation rate, as the primary index for assessing climatic impacts on lake systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of copper in nitrous oxide accumulation in wetland soils from Illinois and South Carolina and stream sediments from Tennessee

Denitrification is microbially-mediated through enzymes containing metal cofactors. Laboratory studies of pure cultures have highlighted that the availability of copper (Cu), required for the multicopper enzyme nitrous oxide reductase, can limit nitrous oxide (N2O) reduction. However, in natural aquatic systems, such as wetlands and hyporheic zones in stream beds, the role of Cu in controlling denitrification remains incompletely understood. In this study, we collected soils and sediments from three natural environments -- riparian wetlands, marsh wetlands, and a stream -- to investigate their nitrogen species transformation activity at background Cu levels and different supplemented Cu loadings. All of the systems contained solid-phase associated Cu below or around geological levels (40–280 nmol g-1) and exhibited low dissolved Cu (3–50 nM), which made them appropriate sites for evaluating the effect of limited Cu availability on denitrification.The dataset contains the variation in the nutrient (nitrate (NO3-), nitrite (NO2-), and ammonium (NH4+)) and N2O concentrations during the incubation experiments to evaluate the effect of Cu. We have also reported the variation in metal concentrations (Cu, iron(Fe) and manganese (Mn)) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations during the incubations. The parameters obtained using a kinetic model to quantitatively report the effect of Cu on nitrogen species conversion in natural aquatic systems are also added in the dataset. The dataset also contains the labile concentration of Cu estimated using a speciation model in MINTEQ. All data are provided in text-based CSV format with header sections indicating the data contained in each file and the corresponding units.Our study suggests that high concentrations of N2O accumulated in all microcosms lacking Cu amendment except for one stream sediment sample. With Cu added to provide dissolved concentrations at trace levels (10–300 nM), the reduction rate of N2O to N2 in the wetland soils and stream sediments was enhanced. A kinetic model could account for the trends in nitrogen species by combining the reactions for microbial reduction of NO3- to NO2-/N2O/N2 and abiotic reduction of NO2 to nitrogen (N2_. The model revealed that the rate of N2O to N2 conversion increased significantly in the presence of Cu. For riparian wetland soils and stream sediments, the kinetic model also suggested that overall denitrification is driven by abiotic reduction of NO2- in the presence of inorganic electron donors. This study demonstrated that natural aquatic systems containing Cu at concentrations less than or equal to crustal abundances may display incomplete reduction of N2O to N2 that would cause N2O accumulation and release to the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biogeochemistry simulations for the Salt Marsh Accretion Response to Temperature eXperiment (SMARTX)

Coastal ecosystems have been largely ignored in Earth system models but are important zones for carbon and nutrient processing. Interactions between water, microbes, soil, sediments, and vegetation are important for mechanistic representation of coastal processes and ecosystem function. To investigate the role of these feedbacks, we used a reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN) that has the capability to be connected to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). PFLOTRAN was used to incorporate redox reactions and track chemical species important for coastal ecosystems as well as define simple representations of vegetation dynamics. Our goal was to incorporate oxygen flux, salinity, pH, sulfur cycling, and methane production along with plant-mediated transport of gases and tidal flux. Using porewater profile and incubation data for model calibration and evaluation, we were able to create depth-resolved biogeochemical soil profiles for saltmarsh habitat and use this updated representation to simulate direct and indirect effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on subsurface biogeochemical cycling. We found that simply changing the partial pressure of CO2 or increasing temperature in the model did not fully reproduce observed changes in the porewater profile, but the inclusion of plant or microbial responses to CO2 and temperature manipulations was more accurate in representing porewater concentrations. This indicates the importance of characterizing tightly coupled vegetation-subsurface processes for developing predictive understanding and the need for measurement of plant-soil interactions on the same time scale to understand how hotspots or moments are generated.Included in this data package are PFLOTRAN input (PFLOTRAN input files and chemical database) files for simulating single column biogeochemistry, root, and tide interactions at the Global Change Research Wetland (Kirkpatrick Marsh; Edgewater, MD). The biogeochemical network includes soil organic matter decomposition, nitrogen, iron, and sulfur cycling, and methanogenesis. Reduced species can be oxidized and plant processes include oxygen and nutrient priming, methane release, and nutrient uptake.Inputs:TAI_database.dat - geochemical database for reactions, more information on database structure and variables can be found here https://www.pflotran.org/documentation/user_guide/cards/pages/geochemical_database.htmlswamp.in - input file for biogeochemical network in PFLOTRANswamp_eCO2.in - input file for biogeochemical network in PFLOTRAN with input gas partial pressures/concentrations adjusted for elevated CO2 treatmentsOutputs:swamp_obs_0.tec - hourly porewater concentrations from from multiple depths in the soil columnswamp_eCO2_obs_0.tec - hourly porewater concentrations from multiple depths in the soil column for elevated CO2 treatmentsPFLOTRAN code access: https://github.com/fmyuan/pflotran-elm-interface.git

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hestia SW-IFL Onroad Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) product: Road segment-level annual FFCO2 emissions across Arizona (2017-2022), version 1.1

The SW-IFL onroad fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions data product represents CO2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels by motor vehicles (e.g., passenger cars, trucks, buses, motorcycles) traveling on designated roadways. The emissions are represented geographically on each road segment within the state of Arizona spanning the 2017 to 2022 time period. This data product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions data are provided in CSV (input data, ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and GeoPackage form (output polyline objects - about 786,000 road segments, XXXX_AZ_v1.1.gpkg) designated by road class (interstates, arterials, collectors, local). The metadata file (Metadata_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) provides details about attributes and data formats. The GeoPackage emissions data are provided separately for local roads and nonlocal roads (interstates, arterials, collectors). The method file (Methods_SW-IFL_Onroad_annualFFCO2_v1.1.docx) describes the data processing flow and data sources. Update on 2024-04-17: Updates were made to both the input emission data file (.csv) and output segment-level emission file (.gpkg). There was an update in county-level emission input data (ONR_FFCO2_AZ_county.csv) and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-04-29: Update was made to one output segment-level emission file (Nonlocal_AZ_v1.0.gpkg). There was an error in the AADT values and the data were reprocessed to reflect this update.Update on 2024-10-22: Temporal coverage was extended to include 2022. VMT values were recalculated using new AADT data and the entire road segments were reprocessed to reflect these updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate Change Impacts on WAP

This presentation uncovers the science behind climate change and its direct impact on weatherization work! This presentation explores the facts, dissect the data, and connect the dots between climate change and the crucial role of weatherization.

change↗
DOE OSTI2024

Vegetation Warming Experiment: Landscape-scale digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska, 2019

Images captured using a StarDot NetCam SC phenocamera looking east from the top of the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) Sled Shed, Utqiagvik, Alaska. The camera was installed to remotely monitor plant phenology and operation of the Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) TEST group's ZPW (Zero Power Warming) chambers during the growing season of 2019. Images were captured from early spring (4 April) through to mid fall (30 October). Snowmelt, vegetation growth and senescence, and snow accumulation were captured. Images were uploaded to the BNL FTP server every hour, then from 2019-06-27 to 2019-10-02 images were recorded every 10 minutes, then at hourly intervals until the end of data collection on 2019-10-30. Files were renamed with the date and time of the image. jpg images have been compressed in *.tar.gz format (5.6 GB). Closer fields of view (northeasterly) were also captured using 4 Wingscapes TimelapseCam cameras mounted on a mast on the sled shed. These cameras were operated from 2019-06-23 to 2019-09-25, with images recorded every 30 minutes from 9:00 to 16:30 Alaska daylight time (AKDT, UTC-8). Individual jpg images have been compressed in zip format for each camera and also presented as mp4 timelapse movies.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗