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At least 109 records · Page 6

Climate Model Diagnostic and Evaluation: With a Focus on Satellite Observations

Each year, we host a summer school that brings together the next generation of climate scientists - about 30 graduate students and postdocs from around the world - to engage with premier climate scientists from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and elsewhere. Our yearly summer school focuses on topics on the leading edge of climate science research. Our inaugural summer school, held in 2011, was on the topic of "Using Satellite Observations to Advance Climate Models," and enabled students to explore how satellite observations can be used to evaluate and improve climate models. Speakers included climate experts from both NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), who provided updates on climate model diagnostics and evaluation and remote sensing of the planet. Details of the next summer school will be posted here in due course.

climate↗

Bringing Climate Scientist's Tools into Classrooms to Improve Conceptual Understandings

Efforts to address anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) require public understanding of Earth and climate science. To meet this need, educational reforms and prominent scientists have called for instructional approaches that teach students how climate scientists examine AGCC. Yet, only a few educational studies have reported clear empirical results on what instructional approaches and climate education technologies best accomplish this goal. This manuscript presents detailed analysis and statistically significant results on the educational impact pre to post of students learning to use a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) global climate model (GCM). This series of case studies demonstrates that differing instructional approaches and climate education technologies result in differing levels of understanding of AGCC and ability to engage with policies addressing it. Students who learned the scientific process of climate modeling scored significantly higher pre to post on exams (quantitatively) and gained more complete conceptual understandings of the issue (qualitatively). Yet, teaching students to conduct research with complex technology can be difficult. This study also found lecture-based learning better improved recall of facts about GCMs tested by multiple-choice questions. Our findings indicate what educational systems and related technologies might provide the public with the conceptual understandings necessary to engage in the political debate over AGCC.

Public understanding↗

Science & Technology Review: Climate Change Comes into Focus

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world. The cover image shows a simulation run on the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) state-of-the-science Energy Exascale Earth Systems Model (E3SM), which leverages DOE’s advanced supercomputers for climate and earth science research. As the article beginning on p. 4 describes, the newly released version 2 will be used to simulate aspects of Earth’s variability at weather-scale resolution and investigate decadal changes in climate that will critically impact the United States in coming years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Presentation

The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) offers integrated supercomputing, visualization, and data interaction technologies to enhance NASA's weather and climate prediction capabilities. It serves hundreds of users at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as other NASA centers, laboratories, and universities across the US. Over the past year, NCCS has continued expanding its data-centric computing environment to meet the increasingly data-intensive challenges of climate science. We doubled our Discover supercomputer's peak performance to more than 800 teraflops by adding 7,680 Intel Xeon Sandy Bridge processor-cores and most recently 240 Intel Xeon Phi Many Integrated Core (MIG) co-processors. A supercomputing-class analysis system named Dali gives users rapid access to their data on Discover and high-performance software including the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT), with interfaces from user desktops and a 17- by 6-foot visualization wall. NCCS also is exploring highly efficient climate data services and management with a new MapReduce/Hadoop cluster while augmenting its data distribution to the science community. Using NCCS resources, NASA completed its modeling contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCG) Fifth Assessment Report this summer as part of the ongoing Coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Ensembles of simulations run on Discover reached back to the year 1000 to test model accuracy and projected climate change through the year 2300 based on four different scenarios of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land use. The data resulting from several thousand IPCC/CMIP5 simulations, as well as a variety of other simulation, reanalysis, and observationdatasets, are available to scientists and decision makers through an enhanced NCCS Earth System Grid Federation Gateway. Worldwide downloads have totaled over 110 terabytes of data.

Webster, William P.↗

Building collaboration to advance our understanding of regional climate impacts of dust in California's San Joaquin Valley

This project successfully achieved its central objective of building collaborative research capabilities at UC Merced, a Hispanic-Serving Institution, to advance understanding of the regional climate impacts of dust in California's San Joaquin Valley. Through strategic partnerships with three DOE national laboratories (PNNL, LLNL, and LBNL), we developed critical expertise in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facilities. Among the project's scientific contributions, one key publication includes demonstrating that fallowed agricultural lands are the primary source of anthropogenic dust in California's Central Valley, with dust activities increasing substantially between 2008 and 2022, in correlation with drought severity and expanded fallowed land coverage. This finding suggests that current climate models, including E3SM, likely underestimate the dust burden due to inadequate representation of agricultural land-use changes. Beyond the scientific contributions, the project successfully trained a PhD student, established ongoing collaborations resulting in multiple manuscripts in preparation, and positioned UC Merced to participate in the DUSTIEAIM campaign for 2026-2027, thereby building sustainable research capacity while addressing climate science questions directly relevant to the California Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing Global Food Security: Opportunities for the American Meteorological Society

Food security is a key pillar of environmental security yet remains one of the world’s greatest challenges. Its obverse, food insecurity, negatively impacts health and well-being, drives mass migration, and undermines national security and global sustainable development. Ensuring food security is a delicate balance of myriad concerns within the atmospheric and Earth sciences, agronomy and agriculture engineering, social sciences, economics, monitoring, and policymaking. A Food Security Presidential Session at the American Meteorological Society’s (AMS) 2022 Annual Meeting brought together experts across disciplines to tackle issues at the nexus of weather, climate, and food security. The starkest takeaway was the realization that, despite its importance and clear roles for the atmospheric and climate sciences, food security has not been a focus for the AMS community. The aim of this paper is to build on the perspectives shared by this expert panel and to identify overlapping issues and key points of intersection between the food-security community and AMS. We examine 1) the interactions between weather, climate, and the food system and how they influence food security; 2) the time and spatial scales of food security decision support that match weather and climate phenomena; 3) the role of both providers and users of information as well as decision-makers in improving research to operations for food security; and 4) the opportunities for the AMS community to address food security. We conclude that, moving forward, the AMS community is well-positioned to scale up its engagement across the global food system to address existing scientific needs and technology gaps to improve global food security.

Food security↗

Convolutional Neural Networks Trained on Internal Variability Predict Forced Response of TOA Radiation by Learning the Pattern Effect

Abstract Predicting forced, long‐term radiative feedbacks from internal climate variability has been a decades‐long quest in climate science. We train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to predict annual‐ and global‐mean top of the atmosphere radiation anomalies from time‐varying maps of near‐surface temperature in climate models. Trained on internal variability alone, the nonlinear CNN can predict radiation under strong climate change, outperforms a regularized linear regression approach, and works within and across different climate models. We show with explainable artificial intelligence methods that the CNN draws predictive skill from physically meaningful regions but at much smaller spatial scales than currently assumed.

Rugenstein, Maria [Colorado State University Fort ↗

Partial Support of the Fast-Track Consensus Study on Foundational Research Gaps and Future Directions for Digital Twins (Final Report)

This study from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was launched to explore the foundational research gaps and opportunities for digital twins. As part of the information gathering process, the committee organized three targeted workshops—in engineering, climate sciences, and biomedical sciences—to better understand domain-specific nuances and barriers to developing digital twins. These sessions enabled cross-sector experts to surface field-specific needs, challenges, and open questions related to digital twins. Thousands of participants across multiple domains engaged in the discussions, which workshops were summarized in three separate Proceedings-in-Brief.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Shifting institutional culture to develop climate solutions with Open Science

To address our climate emergency, “we must rapidly, radically reshape society”—Johnson & Wilkinson, All We Can Save. In science, reshaping requires formidable technical (cloud, coding, reproducibility) and cultural shifts (mindsets, hybrid collaboration, inclusion). We are a group of cross-government and academic scientists that are exploring better ways of working and not being too entrenched in our bureaucracies to do better science, support colleagues, and change the culture at our organizations. We share much-needed success stories and action for what we can all do to reshape science as part of the Open Science movement and 2023 Year of Open Science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Macroscopic Organization: Order Emerging from Randomness

Clouds play a central role in many aspects of the climate system and their forms and shapes are remarkably diverse. Appropriate representation of clouds in climate models is a major challenge because cloud processes span at least eight orders of magnitude in spatial scales. Here we show that there exists order in cloud size distribution of low-level clouds, and that it follows a power-law distribution with exponent gamma close to 2. gamma is insensitive to yearly variations in environmental conditions, but has regional variations and land-ocean contrasts. More importantly, we demonstrate this self-organizing behavior of clouds emerges naturally from a complex network model with simple, physical organizing principles: random clumping and merging. We also demonstrate symmetry between clear and cloudy skies in terms of macroscopic organization because of similar fundamental underlying organizing principles. The order in the apparently complex cloud-clear field thus has its root in random local interactions. Studying cloud organization with complex network models is an attractive new approach that has wide applications in climate science. We also propose a concept of cloud statistic mechanics approach. This approach is fully complementary to deterministic models, and the two approaches provide a powerful framework to meet the challenge of representing clouds in our climate models when working in tandem.

Yuan, Tianle↗

Embedding Climate Change in Urban Planning and Urban Design in New York City

Confronting the challenges of a rapidly urbanizing world threatened by climate change requires expanding the traditional influence and capabilities of urban planning and urban design, integrating climate science, natural systems and compact urban form to configure dynamic, desirable and healthy communities. Cost-effective planning and design measures that help mitigate emissions while bringing adaptive benefits should be prioritized. The chapter draws from the publication Climate Change and Cities (Cambridge University Press 2018) by the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN). The two-phase New York City case study by the Urban Design Climate Lab at the New York Institute of Technology and a team of international urban design climate experts illustrates how this emerging expertise can be replicated and implemented worldwide. Its focus on configuring people-centered public spaces that enhance energy efficiency and improve public health draws from four urban climate factors: improving efficiency of urban systems, both in energy and transportation; optimizing the form and layout of urban districts to enhance ventilation; promoting appropriate building materials with high reflectivity; and increasing green and blue urban infrastructure. The chapter highlights a set of tools and methods to measure success.

Resiliency↗

Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects

In recent years, there has been an increasing need for climate information across diverse sectors of society. This demand has arisen from the necessity to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate variability and change. Likewise, this period has seen a significant increase in our understanding of the physical processes and mechanisms that drive precipitation and its variability across different regions of Africa. By leveraging a large volume of climate model outputs, numerous studies have investigated the model representation of African precipitation as well as underlying physical processes. These studies have assessed whether the physical processes are well depicted and whether the models are fit for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper provides a review of the progress in precipitation simulation over Africa in state-of-the-science climate models and discusses the major issues and challenges that remain.

CMIP6↗

Using Remotely Sensed Data for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: A Collaborative Effort Between the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI), NASA Johnson Space Center, and Jacobs Technology

With ever changing landscapes and environmental conditions due to human induced climate change, adaptability is imperative for the long-term success of facilities and Federal agency missions. To mitigate the effects of climate change, indicators such as above-ground biomass change must be identified to establish a comprehensive monitoring effort. Researching the varying effects of climate change on ecosystems can provide a scientific framework that will help produce informative, strategic and tactical policies for environmental adaptation. As a proactive approach to climate change mitigation, NASA tasked the Climate Change Adaptation Science Investigators Workgroup (CASI) to provide climate change expertise and data to Center facility managers and planners in order to ensure sustainability based on predictive models and current research. Generation of historical datasets that will be used in an agency-wide effort to establish strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation at NASA facilities is part of the CASI strategy. Using time series of historical remotely sensed data is well-established means of measuring change over time. CASI investigators have acquired multispectral and hyperspectral optical and LiDAR remotely sensed datasets from NASA Earth Observation Satellites (including the International Space Station), airborne sensors, and astronaut photography using hand held digital cameras to create a historical dataset for the Johnson Space Center, as well as the Houston and Galveston area. The raster imagery within each dataset has been georectified, and the multispectral and hyperspectral imagery has been atmospherically corrected. Using ArcGIS for Server, the CASI-Regional Remote Sensing data has been published as an image service, and can be visualized through a basic web mapping application. Future work will include a customized web mapping application created using a JavaScript Application Programming Interface (API), and inclusion of the CASI data for the NASA Johnson Space Center into a NASA-Wide GIS Institutional Portal.

Jagge, Amy↗

Climate Change: On Scientists and Advocacy

Last year, I asked a crowd of a few hundred geoscientists from around the world what positions related to climate science and policy they would be comfortable publicly advocating. I presented a list of recommendations that included increased research funding, greater resources for education, and specific emission reduction technologies. In almost every case, a majority of the audience felt comfortable arguing for them. The only clear exceptions were related to geo-engineering research and nuclear power. I had queried the researchers because the relationship between science and advocacy is marked by many assumptions and little clarity. This despite the fact that the basic question of how scientists can be responsible advocates on issues related to their expertise has been discussed for decades most notably in the case of climate change by the late Stephen Schneider.

climate change↗

ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders Climate Change and Cities: Second Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network

ARC3.2 presents a broad synthesis of the latest scientific research on climate change and cities. Mitigation and adaptation climate actions of 100 cities are documented throughout the 16 chapters, as well as online through the ARC3.2 Case Study Docking Station. Pathways to Urban Transformation, Major Findings, and Key Messages are highlighted here in the ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders. These sections lay out what cities need to do achieve their potential as leaders of climate change solutions. UCCRN Regional Hubs in Europe, Latin America, Africa, Australia and Asia will share ARC3.2 findings with local city leaders and researchers. The ARC3.2 Summary for City Leaders synthesizes Major Findings and Key Messages on urban climate science, disasters and risks, urban planning and design, mitigation and adaptation, equity and environmental justice, economics and finance, the private sector, urban ecosystems, urban coastal zones, public health, housing and informal settlements, energy, water, transportation, solid waste, and governance. These were based on climate trends and future projections for 100 cities around the world.

Ecosystems↗

21st century trends in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport

One of the key questions in the air quality and climate sciences is how will tropospheric ozone concentrations change in the future. This will depend on two factors: changes in stratosphere-to-troposphere transport (STT) and changes in tropospheric chemistry. Here we aim to identify robust changes in STT using simulations from the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) under a common climate change scenario (RCP6.0). We use two idealized stratospheric tracers implemented in the models to examine changes in transport. We find that the strengthening of the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) in the lower stratosphere and of the upper part of the Hadley cell in the upper troposphere lead to enhanced STT in the subtropics. The acceleration of the deep branch of the BDC in the NH and changes in eddy transport contribute to increase STT at high latitudes. In the SH, the deep branch does not accelerate due to the dynamical effects of the ozone hole recovery.

stratosphere-to-troposphere transport↗

Climate Informatics

The impacts of present and potential future climate change will be one of the most important scientific and societal challenges in the 21st century. Given observed changes in temperature, sea ice, and sea level, improving our understanding of the climate system is an international priority. This system is characterized by complex phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. But with an ever-growing supply of climate data from satellites and environmental sensors, the magnitude of data and climate model output is beginning to overwhelm the relatively simple tools currently used to analyze them. A computational approach will therefore be indispensable for these analysis challenges. This chapter introduces the fledgling research discipline climate informatics: collaborations between climate scientists and machine learning researchers in order to bridge this gap between data and understanding. We hope that the study of climate informatics will accelerate discovery in answering pressing questions in climate science.

Climate change↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 2: New Methods for Assessing Extreme Temperatures, Heavy Downpours, and Drought

This New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC3) chapter builds on the projections developed by the second New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC2) (Horton et al., 2015). It confirms NPCC2 projections as those of record for the City of New York, presents new methodology related to climate extremes, and describes new methods for developing the next generation of climate projections for the New York metropolitan region. These may be used by the City of New York as it continues to develop flexible adaptation pathways to cope with climate change. The main topics of the climate science chapter are: (1) Comparison of observed temperature and precipitation trends to NPCC2 2015 projections. (2) New methodology for analysis of historical and future projections of heatwaves, humidity, and cold snaps. (3) Improved characterization of observed heavy downpours. (4) Characterization of observed drought using paleoclimate data. (5) Suggested methods for next generation climate risk information.

Gonzalez, Jorge E.↗