Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Climate records”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Synergy of Satellite Radiation, Precipitation, and Other Meteorological Variable Observations for Global Mean Sea Surface Turbulent Heat Flux Estimation

Sea surface turbulent heat flux is one of the key components in global freshwater and energy balances and plays an important role in atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics and general circulation. This turbulent heat flux is dominantly decided by sea surface latent heat release with some contribution from sensible heat exchange. The flux and its anomaly could significantly affect ocean heat storage and ocean circulation. They are part of and have great impacts on climate variability. Though the turbulent heat flux is extremely important for the climate and weather systems, only very limited ship and buoy observations of the flux are available over open oceans. There are no global, operational, direct measurements of this crucial meteorological variable. Global estimates are, basically, indirectly calculated from bulk turbulent flux parameterization with a combination of satellite column water vapor, sea surface water temperature, and wind speed observations. Critical parameters such as sea surface air temperature and humidity are estimated from empirical relations of theses variables with the water vapor and sea surface water temperature, respectively. Lacking accurate knowledge on surface air temperature and humidity, uncertainties in the parameterization and potential changes in the non-linear turbulent processes with long-term climate variations could cause large errors in estimated long-term turbulent fluxes from the indirect method as shown in current global sea surface turbulent flux datasets. This study uses synergized data of satellite global radiation, precipitation, and other meteorological variable observations to estimate sea surface turbulent heat fluxes. The radiation observations are made by the satellite Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors, while the global precipitation data is from NASA’s satellite Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Other data includes satellite sea surface water temperature and wind speed observations. These datasets are obtained from a wide range of space sensors from passive to active instruments and from visible and near infrared to thermal infrared and microwave spectral sounders. One significant feature of these datasets is that they have multi-decades long climate records. Top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation and its anomaly represents the net heat energy input to the climate system, and the oceanic precipitation and ocean-land moisture transport can be used to quantify sea surface latent heat release. Based on the synergized datasets and the principle of global water and energy balances, global mean turbulent heat fluxes are estimated. The turbulent heat anomalies for the first two decades of the 21st century are, then, obtained mainly from global CERES radiation and GPCP precipitation anomalies, along with CERES derived ocean-land heat transports. Analysis indicates that the uncertainties in the estimated turbulent flux anomalies may be reduced considerably. The results suggest a strong needs in synchronized and synergized observations of atmospheric radiation, precipitation, and oceanic meteorological variables for long-term climate studies.

Bing Lin↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Archaeology of Little Wood Creek: New Chronometric Evidence

This study reports on the establishment of viable dates for several major cultural components at the Little Wood Creek site on the upper Hudson in Fort Edward, New York. The original excavation in the mid-1980s (Grossman et al. 1990) resulted in the identification of two major periods of occupation, a deeply buried Transitional period sequence of living floors, and closer to the surface, and separated by circa five feet of sterile alluvium, a series of Late Woodland period pits and features. Both are overlain by the discovery of the southern bastion of Revolutionary War-era Fort Edward. Ambiguities in the original bulk radiocarbon dating of the site left it in chronological limbo with widely divergent determinations for both prehistoric occupation periods. New AMS dates from 10 samples, four Transitional period and six Late Woodland period assays, both refined the absolute chronology of the site complex and clarified several major issues in the cultural and environmental history of the region. Together, these two sets of dates, combined with recent high resolution environmental sequences, provide sufficient resolution to correlate the newly defined periods of occupation with major events in the pollen and climate record of eastern New York State.

chronology↗
NASA NTRS2011

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗
NASA NTRS2005

The GPM Common Calibrated Brightness Temperature Product

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) project will provide a core satellite carrying the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) and will use microwave observations from a constellation of other satellites. Each partner with a satellite in the constellation will have a calibration that meets their own requirements and will decide on the format to archive their brightness temperature (Tb) record in GPM. However, GPM multi-sensor precipitation algorithms need to input intercalibrated Tb's in order to avoid differences among sensors introducing artifacts into the longer term climate record of precipitation. The GPM Common Calibrated Brightness Temperature Product is intended to address this problem by providing intercalibrated Tb data, called "Tc" data, where the "c" stands for common. The precipitation algorithms require a Tc file format that is both generic and flexible enough to accommodate the different passive microwave instruments. The format will provide detailed information on the processing history in order to allow future researchers to have a record of what was done. The format will be simple, including the main items of scan time, latitude, longitude, and Tc. It will also provide spacecraft orientation, spacecraft location, orbit, and instrument scan type (cross-track or conical). Another simplification is to store data in real numbers, avoiding the ambiguity of scaled data. Finally, units and descriptions will be provided in the product. The format is built on the concept of a swath, which is a series of scans that have common geolocation and common scan geometry. Scan geometry includes pixels per scan, sensor orientation, scan type, and incidence angles. The Tc algorithm and data format are being tested using the pre-GPM Precipitation Processing System (PPS) software to generate formats and 1/0 routines. In the test, data from SSM/I, TMI, AMSR-E, and WindSat are being processed and written as Tc products.

Stout, John↗
NASA NTRS1996

(abstract) A Geomagnetic Contribution to Climate Change in this Century

There is a myth that all solar effects can be parameterized by the sun spot number. This is not true. For example, the level of geomagnetic activity during this century was not proportional to the sunspot number. Instead there is a large systematic increase in geomagnetic activity, not reflected in the sunspot number. This increase occurred gradually over at least 60 years. The 11 year solar cycle variation was superimposed on this systematic increase. Here we show that this systematic increase in activity is well correlated to the simultaneous increase in terrestrial temperature that occurred during the first half of this century. We discuss these findings in terms of mechanisms by which geomagnetics can be coupled to climate. These mechanisms include possible changes in weather patterns and cloud cover due to increased cosmic ray fluxes, or to increased fluxes of high energy electrons. We suggest that this systematic increase in geomagnetic activity contributed (along with anthropogenic effects and possible changes in solar irradiance) to the changes in climate recorded during this period.

electrons solar irradiance terrestrial temperature↗
NASA NTRS1990

Third generation earth radiation budget measurements; ERBE in the context of earlier systems

The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) observations are just becoming available for scientific use. These represent the third generation of measurements with steadily improving accuracy and resolution. Beginning in the 1960's observations by spherical detectors established the mean albedo of the Earth near 30 percent in substantial variance from presatellite estimates. The Nimbus 6 and 7 wide field of view ERB measurements represent a long-term climatology of measurements at 1000 km resolution. The ERBE measurements introduce higher accuracy and higher space and time resolution result. Comparisons will be presented of several April ERB measurements to illustrate what this improvement in resolution and accuracy can yield. Simultaneous ERBE and Nimbus 7 measurements for April 1985 show nearly identical results on the large scale. Comparison of measurements of direct solar energy from ERBE, Solar Max Mission and Nimbus 7 suggest a 'solar constant' value of 1368 w/sq m for the 1979 to 1986 period. The long-term record of earth radiation budget (Aprils from 1976 to 1985) over large regions is shown to have interannual variation of plus or minus 20 to 30 w/sq. m. The new ERBE data will allow this climate record measurement to continue.

Vonderhaar, Thomas H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Bellingshausen Sea Ice Extent Recorded in an Antarctic Peninsula Ice Core

Annual net accumulation (A(sub n)) from the Bruce Plateau (BP) ice core retrieved from the Antarctic Peninsula exhibits a notable relationship with sea ice extent (SIE) in the Bellingshausen Sea. Over the satellite era, both BP A(sub n) and Bellingshausen SIE are influenced by large-scale climatic factors such as the Amundsen Sea Low, Southern Annular Mode, and Southern Oscillation. In addition to the direct response of BP A(sub n) to Bellingshausen SIE (e.g., more open water as a moisture source), these large-scale climate phenomena also link the BP and the Bellingshausen Sea indirectly such that they exhibit similar responses (e.g., northerly wind anomalies advect warm, moist air to the Antarctic Peninsula and neighboring Bellingshausen Sea, which reduces SIE and increases A(sub n)). Comparison with a time series of fast ice at South Orkney Islands reveals a relationship between BP A(sub n) and sea ice in the northern Weddell Sea that is relatively consistent over the twentieth century, except when it is modulated by atmospheric wave patterns described by the Trans-Polar Index. The trend of increasing accumulation on the Bruce Plateau since approximately 1970 agrees with other climate records and reconstructions in the region and suggests that the current rate of sea ice loss in the Bellingshausen Sea is unrivaled in the twentieth century.

sea ice↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cold Reversal on Kodiak Island, Alaska, Correlated with the European Younger Dryas by Using Variations of Atmospheric C-14 Content

High-resolution AMS (accelerator-mass-spectrometer) radiocarbon dating was performed on late-glacial macrofossils in lake sediments from Kodiak Island, Alaska, and on shells in marine sediments from southwest Sweden. In both records, a dramatic drop in radiocarbon ages equivalent to a rise in the atmospheric C-14 by approximately 70%. coincides with the beginning of the cold period at 11000 yr B.P. (C-14 age). Thus our results show that a close correlation between climatic records around the globe is possible by using a global signature of changes in atmospheric C-14 content.

Hajdas, Irka↗
NASA NTRS1988

Mars sample return mission: What level of complexity

The complexity of the U.S. Sample Return Mission is ultimately dependent on current mission funding and the projected direction of the U.S. space program. Despite these uncertainties, it is important to examine mission scenarios to address desired scientific objectives that can be summarized in the following list: (1) determine existence of climatic records in geologic records; (2) does Mars have a subpermafrost groundwater system; (3) fundamental questions on the existence of Mars biology; (4) what is the internal structure of Mars; (5) determine the systems for regolith formation; and (6) what is the contribution of meteorites to Martian geology and climate are presented. To address these objectives, the sample size, quantity and location must be established and whether this should be the only data searched for on the Martian surface. With this in mind, three mission scenarios are briefly discussed, in order of increasing complexity.

Ciesla, Thomas M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Principal-Component-Based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) for Hyperspectral Shortwave and Longwave Satellite Sensors and Its Applications

The radiative transfer model (RTM) or forward model is an essential component in satellite remote sensing. For modern hyperspectral remote sensors, fast and accurate RTMs are needed due to a large number of spectral dimensions and high spatial resolutions. We will describe a Principal Component-based radiative transfer model (PCRTM) which can simulate the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiance or reflectance spectra 250 nm to 2000 micrometers quickly and accurately. The PCRTM has been demonstrated to be extremely accurate, compared to the line-by-line RTM benchmarks, and the former is several orders more computationally efficient than the latter. We will demonstrate how the PCRTM and the associated inversion algorithms are used to infer atmospheric temperature, moisture, and trace gas profiles, as well as cloud and surface properties from hyperspectral IR sounders such as Atomspheric Infrared Souder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS). High-quality climate records for a 20-year duration have been derived from these IR hyperspectral data. Finally, we will show some examples of using PCRTM to retrieve cloud properties from Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) and its applicability of PCRTM to future missions such as the CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) Pathfinder (CPF) CPF and the Surface Biology and Geology (SBG).

Xu Liu↗
NASA NTRS2003

Electrochemical approaches for chemical and biological analysis on Mars

Obtaining in situ chemical data from planetary bodies such as Mars or Europa can present significant challenges. The one analytical technique that has many of the requisite characteristics to meet such a challenge is electroanalysis. Described here are three electroanalytical devices designed for in situ geochemical and biological analysis on Mars. The Mars Environmental Compatibility Assessment (MECA) was built and flight qualified for the now cancelled NASA Mars 2001 Lander. Part of MECA consisted of four "cells" containing arrays of electrochemical based sensors for measuring the ionic species in soil samples. A next-generation MECA, the Robotic Chemical Analysis Laboratory (RCAL), uses a carousel-type system to allow for greater customization of analytical procedures. A second instrument, proposed as part of the 2007 CryoScout mission, consists of a flow-through inorganic chemical analyzer (MICA). CryoScout is a torpedo-like device designed for subsurface investigation of the stratigraphic climate record embedded in Mars' north polar cap. As the CryoScout melts its way through the ice cap, MICA will collect and analyze the meltwater for a variety of inorganics and chemical parameters. By analyzing the chemistry locked in the layers of dust, salt, and ice, geologists will be able to determine the recent history of climate, water, and atmosphere on Mars and link it to the past. Finally, electroanalysis shows its abilities in the detection of possible microorganism on Mars or elsewhere in the solar system. To identify an unknown microorganism, one that may not even use Earth-type biochemistry, requires a detection scheme which makes minimal assumptions and looks for the most general features. Recent work has demonstrated that the use of an array of electrochemical sensors which monitors the changes in a solution via electrical conductivity, pH, and ion selective electrodes, can be used to detect minute chemical perturbations caused by the growth of bacteria and with the correct methodology provide unamibiguous detection of such life forms.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2009

Uncertainty Management in Remote Sensing of Climate Data. Summary of A Workshop

Great advances have been made in our understanding of the climate system over the past few decades, and remotely sensed data have played a key role in supporting many of these advances. Improvements in satellites and in computational and data-handling techniques have yielded high quality, readily accessible data. However, rapid increases in data volume have also led to large and complex datasets that pose significant challenges in data analysis (NRC, 2007). Uncertainty characterization is needed for every satellite mission and scientists continue to be challenged by the need to reduce the uncertainty in remotely sensed climate records and projections. The approaches currently used to quantify the uncertainty in remotely sensed data, including statistical methods used to calibrate and validate satellite instruments, lack an overall mathematically based framework.

Remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2016

Holocene Accumulation and Ice Flow near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Ice Core Site

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide Core (WDC) provided a high-resolution climate record from near the Ross-Amundsen Divide in Central West Antarctica. In addition, radar-detected internal layers in the vicinity of the WDC site have been dated directly from the ice core to provide spatial variations in the age structure of the region. Using these two data sets together, we first infer a high-resolution Holocene accumulation-rate history from 9.2 thousand years of the ice-core timescale and then confirm that this climate history is consistent with internal layers upstream of the core site. Even though the WDC was drilled only 24 kilometers from the modern ice divide, advection of ice from upstream must be taken into account. We evaluate histories of accumulation rate by using a flowband model to generate internal layers that we compare to observed layers. Results show that the centennially averaged accumulation rate was over 20 percent lower than modern at 9.2 thousand years before present (B.P.), increased by 40 percent from 9.2 to 2.3 thousand years B.P., and decreased by at least 10 percent over the past 2 thousand years B.P. to the modern values; these Holocene accumulation-rate changes in Central West Antarctica are larger than changes inferred from East Antarctic ice-core records. Despite significant changes in accumulation rate, throughout the Holocene the regional accumulation pattern has likely remained similar to today, and the ice-divide position has likely remained on average within 5 kilometers of its modern position. Continent-scale ice-sheet models used for reconstructions of West Antarctic ice volume should incorporate this accumulation history.

ice↗
NASA NTRS2007

Science in Exploration: From the Moon to Mars and Back Home to Earth

NASA is embarking on a grand journey of exploration that naturally integrates the past successes of the Apollo missions to the Moon, as well as robotic science missions to Mars, to Planet Earth, and to the broader Universe. The US Vision for Space Exporation (VSE) boldly lays out a plan for human and robotic reconnaissance of the accessible Universe, starting with the surface of the Moon, and later embracing the surface of Mars. Sustained human and robotic access to the Moon and Mars will enable a new era of scientific investigation of our planetary neighbors, tied to driving scientific questions that pertain to the evolution and destiny of our home planet, but which also can be related to the search habitable worlds across the nearby Universe. The Apollo missions provide a vital legacy for what can be learned from the Moon, and NASA is now poised to recapture the lunar frontier starting with the flight of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) in late 2008. LRO will provide a new scientific context from which joint human and robotic exploration will ensue, guided by objectives some of which are focused on the grandest scientific challenges imaginable : Where did we come from? Are we alone? and Where are we going? The Moon will serve as an essential stepping stone for sustained human access and exploration of deep space and as a training ground while robotic missions with ever increasing complexity probe the wonders of Mars. As we speak, an armada of spacecraft are actively investigating the red planet both from orbit (NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and Mars Odyssey Orbiter, plus ESA's Mars Express) and from the surface (NASA's twin Mars Exploration Rovers, and in 2008 NASA's Phoenix polar lander). The dramatically changing views of Mars as a potentially habitable world, with its own flavor of global climate change and unique climate records, provides a new vantage point from which to observe and question the workings of our own planet Earth. By 2010 NASA will have its first mobile analytical laboratory operating on the surface of Mars (Mars Science Laboratory) in search of potentially subtle expressions of past life or at least of life-hospitable environments. Meanwhile back here on Planet Earth, NASA will be continuing to implement an increasingly comprehensive program of robotic missions that address major issues associated with global climate variability, and the "state variables" that affect the quality of human life on our home planet. Ultimately, the fmits of NASA's emergent program of Exploration (VSE) will provide never-beforepossible opportunities for scientific leadership and advancement, culminating in a new state of awareness from which to better plan for the sustainability of life on Earth and for extending Earth life to the Moon and eventually to Mars. As NASA nears its 50th anniversary, the unimaginable and unexpected wealth of strategic knowledge its missions have generated about Earth, the Universe, and our local Solar System boggles the mind and serves as a legacy of knowledge for Educators to inspire future generations.

Garvin, James B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Constraints on Variability of Brightness and Surface Magnetism on Time Scales of Decades to Centuries in the Sun and Sun-Like Stars: A Source of Potential Terrestrial Climate Variability

These four points summarize our work to date. (1) Conciliation of solar and stellar photometric variability. Previous research by us and colleagues suggested that the Sun might at present be showing unusually low photometric variability compared to other sun-like stars. Those early results would question the suitability of the technique of using sun-like stars as proxies for solar irradiance change on time scales of decades to centuries. However, our results indicate the contrary: the Sun's observed short-term (seasonal) and longterm (year-to-year) brightness variations closely agree with observed brightness variations in stars of similar mass and age. (2) We have demonstrated an inverse correlation between the global temperature of the terrestrial lower troposphere, inferred from the NASA Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometers, and the total area of the Sun covered by coronal holes from January 1979 to present (up to May 2000). Variable fluxes of either solar charged particles or cosmic rays, or both, may influence the terrestrial tropospheric temperature. The geographical pattern of the correlation is consistent with our interpretation of an extra-terrestrial charged particle forcing. (3) Possible climate mechanism amplifying the impact of solar ultraviolet irradiance variations. The key points of our proposed climate hypersensitivity mechanism are: (a) The Sun is more variable in the UV (ultraviolet) than in the visible. However, the increased UV irradiance is mainly absorbed in the lower stratosphere/upper troposphere rather than at the surface. (b) Absorption in the stratosphere raises the temperature moderately around the vicinity of the tropopause, and tends to stabilize the atmosphere against vertical convective/diffusive transport, thus decreasing the flux of heat and moisture carried upward from surface. (c) The decrease in the upward convection of heat and moisture tends to raise the surface temperature because a drier upper atmosphere becomes less cloudy, which in turn allows more solar radiation to reach the Earth's surface. (4) Natural variability in an ocean-atmosphere climate model. We use a 14-region, 6-layer, global thermo-hydrodynamic ocean-atmosphere model to study natural climate variability. All the numerical experiments were performed with no change in the prescribed external boundary conditions (except for the seasonal cycle of the Sun's tilt angle). Therefore, the observed inter-annual variability is of an internal kind. The model results are helpful toward the understanding of the role of nonlinearity in climate change. We have demonstrated a range of possible climate behaviors using our newly developed ocean-atmosphere model. These include climate configurations with no interannual variability, with multi-year periodicities, with continuous chaos, or with chaotically occuring transitions between two discrete substrates. These possible modes of climate behavior are all possible for the real climate, as well as the model. We have shown that small temporary climate influences can trigger shifts both in the mean climate, and among these different types of behavior. Such shifts are not only theoretically plausible, as shown here and elsewhere; they are omnipresent in the climate record on time scales from several years to the age of the Earth. This has two apparently opposite implications for the possibility of anthropogenic global warming. First, any warming which might occur as a result of human influence would be only a fraction of the small-to-large unpredictable natural changes and changes which result from other external causes. On the other hand, small temporary influences such as human influence do have the potential of causing large permanent shifts in mean climate and interannual variability.

Baliunas, Sallie L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission: Continuing a Record of Exploration from Mars Orbit

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) has been on station in its low altitude, sun-synchronous, primary science orbit since September 2006 performing both scientific and Mars programmatic support functions. The spacecraft is a very capable remote sensing science platform carrying six science payloads supporting seven investigations and a UHF telecommunications radio (Electra) for surface relay. Developed to support a mix of nadir mapping and targeted, highresolution surface observations, the spacecraft’s powerful telecommunications and command & data handling (C&DH) subsystems communicate an average of 16 hours a day with the Deep Space Network (DSN). To date, more than 300 TB of scientific data has been returned to Earth. All of the original science payloads are active with standard and new observing modes contributing to the advancement of Mars science through peer-reviewed paper publications and the timely dissemination of their data to the science community as a whole. Results from the science teams have revealed an amazing diversity of ancient aqueous environments and ongoing surface change is evident through gully formation, avalanches, and cratering. Extending the MRO-MGS climate record to a decade of Mars years is contributing to a better understanding of current atmospheric and polar processes. In addition to its fundamental scientific objectives, MRO is a critical element of NASA’s Mars Exploration Program (MEP) providing needed infrastructure support for landed and future missions. Using its Electra telecommunications payload, MRO provides landers and rovers critical event coverage during their entry, descent, and landing (EDL) phases and UHF relay support once they are on the Martian surface. MRO’s high-resolution imagers are used to scout potential landing sites and certify safe zones for landing. As MRO begins its Fourth Extended Mission, the spacecraft remains fully capable of carrying out an ambitious science observing plan and the programmatic tasks assigned to it. In addition to highlighting recent discoveries of the mission, this paper describes recent challenges the spacecraft engineers have faced in flight and the plans for extending spacecraft life well into the 2020’s.

Tamppari, Leslie K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Atmosphere Observing System (AOS): Synergistic Aerosol, Cloud, Convection and Precipitation Measurement and Modeling Systems

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs). On June 1, 2018, several NASA centers (GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC) submitted a joint Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (ACCP), with the ACCP Study concluding in early 2021. The new mission now in pre-phase A is being referred to as the Atmosphere Observing System (AOS), an integral part of NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO) strategy. The DS and the ACCP team recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of science objectives and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those of the individual DOs. A critical element of the ACCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sensors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. In order to achieve maximum benefit, all these observations need to be integrated into comprehensive observing and modeling/data assimilation systems. Such an approach requires comprehensive model-data synthesis capabilities that needs to be conceived in conjunction with the space-based and suborbital components of AOS. In this presentation we will summarize the major science goals of AOS including cloud feedbacks, atmospheric convection, emphasizing aerosol processes and aerosol radiative effects, and the synergistic aspects of clouds-precipitation-aerosol interactions. We will describe examples of how AOS data will be used across space and time to better initialize forecasts and train modeling systems, and to infuse models and data assimilation systems with AOS data for advancing operational predictions and to generate expanded hindcasts and reconstruction of the climate record.

Arlindo da Silva↗
NASA NTRS2020

An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S . This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult‐to‐quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6‐3.9 K for our Baseline calculation, and remains within 2.3‐4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5‐95% ranges are 2.3‐4.7 K, bounded by 2.0‐5.7 K (although such high‐confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent, and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S , in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing‐feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.

Climate↗