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NASA NTRS2020

Biomass Estimation from Simulated GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR Across Environmental Gradients in Sonoma County, California

Estimates of the magnitude and distribution of aboveground carbon in Earth’s forests remain uncertain, yet knowledge of forest carbon content at a global scale is critical for forest management in support of climate mitigation. In light of this knowledge gap, several upcoming spaceborne missions aim to map forest aboveground biomass, and many new biomass products are expected from these datasets. As these new missions host different technologies, each with relative strengths and weaknesses for biomass retrieval, as well as different spatial resolutions, consistently comparing or combining biomass estimates from these new datasets will be challenging. This paper presents a demonstration of an inter-comparison of biomass estimates from simulations of three NASA missions (GEDI, ICESat-2 and NISAR) over Sonoma county in California, USA. We use a high resolution, locally calibrated airborne lidar map as our reference dataset, and emphasize the importance of considering uncertainties in both reference maps and spaceborne estimates when conducting biomass product validation. GEDI and ICESat-2 were simulated from airborne lidar point clouds, while UAVSAR’s L-band backscatter was used as a proxy for NISAR. To estimate biomass for the lidar missions we used GEDI’s footprint-level biomass algorithms, and also adapted these for application to ICESat-2. For UAVSAR, we developed a locally trained biomass model, calibrated against the ALS reference map. Each mission simulation was evaluated in comparison to the local reference map at its native product resolution (25 m, 100m transect, and 1 ha) yielding RMSEs of 57%, 75%, and 89% for GEDI, NISAR, and ICESat-2 respectively. RMSE values increased for GEDI’s power beam during simulated daytime conditions (64%), coverage beam during nighttime conditions (72%), and coverage beam daytime conditions (87%). We also test the application of GEDI’s biomass modeling framework for estimation of biomass from ICESat-2, and fine that ICESat-2 yields reasonable biomass estimates, particularly in relatively short, open canopies. Results suggest that while all three missions will produce datasets useful for biomass mapping, tall, dense canopies such as those found in Sonoma County present the greatest challenges for all three missions, while steep slopes also prove challenging for single-date SAR based biomass retrieval. Our methods provide guidance for the inter-comparison and validation of spaceborne biomass estimates through the use of airborne lidar reference maps, and could be repeated with on-orbit estimates in any area with high quality field plot and ALS data. These methods allow for regional interpretations and filtering of multi-mission biomass estimates toward improved wall-to-wall biomass maps through data fusion.

GEDI↗

NASA NTRS2021

Observational Constraint on Cloud Feedbacks Suggests Moderate Climate Sensitivity

Global climate models (GCMs) predict warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases, partly due to decreased tropical low-level cloud cover and reflectance. We use satellite observations that discriminate stratocumulus (Sc) from shallow cumulus (Cu) clouds to separately evaluate their sensitivity to warming and constrain the tropical contribution to low-cloud feedback. We find an observationally inferred low-level feedback two times smaller than a previous estimate. Cu are insensitive to warming whereas GCMs exhibit a large positive cloud feedback in Cu regions. In contrast, Sc show sensitivity to warming and the tropical inversion layer strength, controlled by the tropical Pacific SST gradient. Models fail to reproduce the historical SST gradient trends and therefore changes in inversion strength, generating an overestimate of the positive Sc cloud feedback. Continued weak east-Pacific warming would therefore produce a weaker low-cloud feedback and imply a more moderate climate sensitivity (3.47  0.33 K) than many models predict.

Cloud feedback↗

NASA NTRS2013

Absorption Properties of Mediterranean Aerosols Obtained from Multi-year Ground-based and Satellite Remote Sensing Observations

Aerosol absorption properties are of high importance to assess aerosol impact on regional climate. This study presents an analysis of aerosol absorption products obtained over the Mediterranean Basin or land stations in the region from multi-year ground-based AERONET and satellite observations with a focus on the Absorbing Aerosol Optical Depth (AAOD), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and their spectral dependence. The AAOD and Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE) data set is composed of daily averaged AERONET level 2 data from a total of 22 Mediterranean stations having long time series, mainly under the influence of urban-industrial aerosols and/or soil dust. This data set covers the 17 yr period 1996-2012 with most data being from 2003-2011 (approximately 89 percent of level-2 AAOD data). Since AERONET level-2 absorption products require a high aerosol load (AOD at 440 nm greater than 0.4), which is most often related to the presence of desert dust, we also consider level-1.5 SSA data, despite their higher uncertainty, and filter out data with an Angstrom exponent less than 1.0 in order to study absorption by carbonaceous aerosols. The SSA data set includes both AERONET level-2 and satellite level-3 products. Satellite-derived SSA data considered are monthly level 3 products mapped at the regional scale for the spring and summer seasons that exhibit the largest aerosol loads. The satellite SSA dataset includes the following products: (i) Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) over 2000-2011, (ii) Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) near-UV algorithm over 2004-2010, and (iii) MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Deep-Blue algorithm over 2005-2011, derived only over land in dusty conditions. Sun-photometer observations show that values of AAOD at 440 nm vary between 0.024 +/- 0.01 (resp. 0.040 +/- 0.01) and 0.050 +/- 0.01 (0.055 +/- 0.01) for urban (dusty) sites. Analysis shows that the Mediterranean urban-industrial aerosols appear "moderately" absorbing with values of SSA close to approximately 0.94-0.95 +/- 0.04 (at 440 nm) in most cases except over the large cities of Rome and Athens, where aerosol appears more absorbing (SSA approximately 0.89-0.90 +/- 0.04). The aerosol Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE, estimated using 440 and 870 nm) is found to be larger than 1 for most sites over the Mediterranean, a manifestation of mineral dust (iron) and/or brown carbon producing the observed absorption. AERONET level-2 sun-photometer data indicate the existence of a moderate East-West gradient, with higher values over the eastern basin (AAEEast. = 1.39/AAEWest. = 1.33) due to the influence of desert dust. The North-South AAE gradient is more pronounced, especially over the western basin. Our additional analysis of AERONET level-1.5 data also shows that organic absorbing aerosols significantly affect some Mediterranean sites. These results indicate that current climate models treating organics as nonabsorbing over the Mediterranean certainly underestimate the warming effect due to carbonaceous aerosols. A~comparative analysis of the regional SSA variability has been attempted using satellite data. OMI and MODIS data show an absorbing zone (SSA approximately 0.90 at 470-500 nm) over Northeastern Africa that does not appear in the MISR retrievals. In contrast, MISR seems able to observe the East-West SSA gradient during summer, as also detected by AERONET. Also, the analysis of SSA provided by satellites indicates that the aerosol over the Mediterranean Sea appears less absorbing during spring (MAM) than summer (JJA).

satellite remote sensing observations↗

NASA NTRS2015

Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.

Global hydrological model↗

NASA NTRS1993

The role of large-scale eddies in the climate equilibrium. Part 2: Variable static stability

Lorenz's two-level model on a sphere is used to investigate how the results of Part 1 are modified when the interaction of the vertical eddy heat flux and static stability is included. In general, the climate state does not depend very much on whether or not this interaction is included, because the poleward eddy heat transport dominates the eddy forcing of mean temperature and wind fields. However, the climatic sensitivity is significantly affected. Compared to two-level model results with fixed static stability, the poleward eddy heat flux is less sensitive to the meridional temperature gradient and the gradient is more sensitive to the forcing. For example, the logarithmic derivative of the eddy flux with respect to the gradient has a slope that is reduced from approximately 15 on a beta-plane with fixed static stability and approximately 6 on a sphere with fixed static stability, to approximately 3 to 4 in the present model. This last result is more in line with analyses from observations. The present model also has a stronger baroclinic adjustment than that in Part 1, more like that in two-level beta-plane models with fixed static stability, that is, the midlatitude isentropic slope is very insensitive to the forcing, the diabatic heating, and the friction, unless the forcing is very weak.

Zhou, Shuntai↗

NASA NTRS2004

Note on the Effect of Horizontal Gradients for Nadir-Viewing Microwave and Infrared Sounders

Passive microwave and infrared nadir sounders such as the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSU-A) and the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS), both flying on NASA s EOS Aqua satellite, provide information about vertical temperature and humidity structure that is used in data assimilation systems for numerical weather prediction and climate applications. These instruments scan cross track so that at the satellite swath edges, the satellite zenith angles can reach approx. 60 deg. The emission path through the atmosphere as observed by the satellite is therefore slanted with respect to the satellite footprint s zenith. Although radiative transfer codes currently in use at operational centers use the appropriate satellite zenith angle to compute brightness temperature, the input atmospheric fields are those from the vertical profile above the center of the satellite footprint. If horizontal gradients are present in the atmospheric fields, the use of a vertical atmospheric profile may produce an error. This note attempts to quantify the effects of horizontal gradients on AIRS and AMSU-A channels by computing brightness temperatures with accurate slanted atmospheric profiles. We use slanted temperature, water vapor, and ozone fields from data assimilation systems. We compare the calculated slanted and vertical brightness temperatures with AIRS and AMSU-A observations. We show that the effects of horizontal gradients on these sounders are generally small and below instrument noise. However, there are cases where the effects are greater than the instrument noise and may produce erroneous increments in an assimilation system. The majority of the affected channels have weighting functions that peak in the upper troposphere (water vapor sensitive channels) and above (temperature sensitive channels) and are unlikely t o significantly impact tropospheric numerical weather prediction. However, the errors could be significant for other applications such as stratospheric analysis. Gradients in ozone and tropospheric temperature appear to be well captured by the analyses. In contrast, gradients in upper stratospheric and mesospheric temperature as well as upper tropospheric humidity are less well captured. This is likely due in part to a lack of data to specify these fields accurately in the analyses. Advanced new sounders, like AIRS, may help to better specify these fields in the future.

Joiner, J.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2007

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Chen, Wei-Ting↗

NASA NTRS2022

The Future Intensification of the North Atlantic Winter Storm Track: The Key Role of Dynamic Ocean Coupling

Climate models project an intensification of the wintertime North Atlantic storm track, over its downstream region, by the end of this century. Previous studies have suggested that ocean-atmosphere coupling plays a key role in this intensification, but the precise role of the different components of the coupling has not been explored and quantified. In this paper, using a hierarchy of ocean coupling experiments, we isolate and quantify the respective roles of thermodynamic (changes in surface heat fluxes) and dynamic (changes in ocean heat flux convergence) ocean coupling in the projected intensification of North Atlantic transient eddy kinetic energy (TEKE). We show that dynamic coupling accounts for nearly all of the future TEKE strengthening as it overcomes the much smaller effect of surface heat flux changes to weaken the TEKE. We further show that by reducing the Arctic amplification in the North Atlantic, ocean heat flux convergence increases the meridional temperature gradient aloft, causing a larger eddy growth rate, and resulting in the strengthening of North Atlantic TEKE. Our results stress the importance of better monitoring and investigating the changes in ocean heat transport, for improving climate change adaptation strategies.

North Atlantic winter storms↗

NASA NTRS2004

Discoveries about Tropospheric Ozone Pollution from Satellite and Soundings

We have been producing near-red time tropospheric ozone satellite maps from the TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) sensor since 1997. Maps for 1996-2000 for the operational Earth-Probe instrument are at: . Pollution in the tropics is influenced by biomass burning and by transport patterns that favor recirculation and in other cases reflect climate variability like the El-Nino-Southern Oscillation [Thompson et al., 2001]. The satellite view of chemical-dynamical interactions in tropospheric ozone is not adequate to capture vertical gradients in pollution. Thus, in 1998, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center and a team of international sponsors established the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) project to address the gap in tropical ozone soundings. SHADOZ augments launches and provides a public archive of ozonesonde data from twelve tropical stations at http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/shadoz. Further insights into the role of chemical and dynamical influences have emerged from the first 4-5 years of SHADOZ data (more than 2000 ozone profiles). Highly variable tropospheric ozone and a zonal wave-one pattern in tropospheric ozone suggest that dynamics is as important as pollution in determining tropical ozone distributions.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Habitable planets with high obliquities

Earth's obliquity would vary chaotically from 0 degrees to 85 degrees were it not for the presence of the Moon (J. Laskar, F. Joutel, and P. Robutel, 1993, Nature 361, 615-617). The Moon itself is thought to be an accident of accretion, formed by a glancing blow from a Mars-sized planetesimal. Hence, planets with similar moons and stable obliquities may be extremely rare. This has lead Laskar and colleagues to suggest that the number of Earth-like planets with high obliquities and temperate, life-supporting climates may be small. To test this proposition, we have used an energy-balance climate model to simulate Earth's climate at obliquities up to 90 degrees. We show that Earth's climate would become regionally severe in such circumstances, with large seasonal cycles and accompanying temperature extremes on middle- and high-latitude continents which might be damaging to many forms of life. The response of other, hypothetical, Earth-like planets to large obliquity fluctuations depends on their land-sea distribution and on their position within the habitable zone (HZ) around their star. Planets with several modest-sized continents or equatorial supercontinents are more climatically stable than those with polar supercontinents. Planets farther out in the HZ are less affected by high obliquities because their atmospheres should accumulate CO2 in response to the carbonate-silicate cycle. Dense, CO2-rich atmospheres transport heat very effectively and therefore limit the magnitude of both seasonal cycles and latitudinal temperature gradients. We conclude that a significant fraction of extrasolar Earth-like planets may still be habitable, even if they are subject to large obliquity fluctuations.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2011

Introduction to: Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)

A striking conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 report is the crucial role that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play in anthropogenic climate change. However, these IPCC coupled climate simulations show a broad range of uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of AMOC transport change ranging from none to nearly complete collapse within the 21st century. The potential consequences of large changes in the characteristics of AMOC have motivated the creation in the United States of an interagency program and implementation plan to develop monitoring and prediction capabilities for the AMOC This program parallels the development of substantial monitoring efforts by European, South American and African countries -- notably the UK Rapid and Rapid-Watch programs. The papers contained in this volume are derived from presentations at the First U.S. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Meeting held 4 - 6 May, 2009 to review the US implementation plan and its coordination with other monitoring activities. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation consists of multiple components illustrated in an attached figure. Water enters the South Atlantic at upper and intermediate depths through both western and eastern routes (where eddy transport is especially important) and is transported northward across the equator, where it recirculates within the northern subtropical and subpolar gyres. The northern end is defined by the sinking regions of the Nordic Seas and the Labrador Sea where the waters that eventually form the upper and lower branches of North Atlantic Deep Water are conditioned. High surface salinities, the result of high net evaporation in the tropics and subtropics (including the Mediterranean Sea), and presence of regions of the Arctic Ocean that remain ice-free even in winter allow for the rapid cooling and thus densification of surface water. This dense surface water becomes the source of deep water formation in the sinking regions. In addition to transporting mass, the AMOC transports roughly half of the total amount of heat carried northward through the northern subtropics (down the temperature-gradient) by the ocean. In contrast in the Southern Hemisphere AMOC transports heat up-gradient from the cool Circumpolar Current to the warm tropics. Paleoevidence suggests that AMOC heat transport in the two hemispheres has varied over time in ways intimately tied to millennial changes in the Earth's climate. In one example, the abrupt Younger Dryas spell of cold weather over the North Atlantic, which began 13,000 years ago, has generally been linked to a millennial shutdown of the AMOC as a result of massive freshwater discharge from the North American continent. The current AMOC monitoring array consists of a series of instrumented transects located across key passages (see Cunningham et al., 2010 for a recent review). In the Arctic and sub-Arctic, transects cross Fram Strait, Denmark Strait and the Faroe Channel (connecting Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom), as well as the entrance to the Labrador Sea. Further south and extending outwards from the east coast of North America there are a series of monitoring arrays including arrays of the Canadian Atlantic Zone Monitoring Program, deployments of the Rapid Western Atlantic Variability Experiment (WAVE), Line W at 39 N, as well as the Rapid-MOC moored array. The latter spans the entire Atlantic basin along 26.5 N. At tropical latitudes we have the Meridional Overturning Variability Experiment (MOVE) array at 16 N, while in the Southern Hemisphere a corresponding basin-spanning transect is being established at the latitude of Cape of Good Hope, complemented by arrays at Drake Passage.

Hakkinen, Sirpa↗

NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980–2015 using the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125° 3 0.125° forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth, and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test at p < 0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 mm/yr in the West and South, net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/sq. m yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 W/sq. m yr in the West, and U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes, and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from west to east. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%. Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, with RMSE decreasing only from 0.17 to 0.16 W/sq. m yr, while trend detection increased 2%. NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gauged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Michael F. Jasinski↗

NASA NTRS1984

Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere

Numerical models and numerical analyses of observations were used to improve the understanding of the physical processes important in global weather and climate. Results from a study of the effect of baroclinic waves on mid-latitude vertical temperature structure show that the waves' vertical eddy heat flux tend to eliminate the potential vorticity gradient near the steering level by causing the static stability to decrease rapidly with height in the lower troposphere above the boundary layer. An empirical study of the relationship between eddy heat fluxes and the meridional temperature gradient has been completed. The results indicate that the feedback in the flux-gradient system is comparable to dissipation on all time scales between the synoptic and the seasonal. The definition of the Eliassen-Palm flux and the Eliassen-Palm and non-acceleration theorems has been generalized to include eddy forcing of condensation. Calculations based on the generalized diagnostics showed that the annual mean eddy forcing of the zonal mean zonal wind is two and one half times stronger when the condensation effects are included.

Stone, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Current Planetary Boundary Layer Retrieval Capabilities from Space

The PBL over land remains a significant gap in our water and energy cycle understanding from space. This work combines unique NASA satellite and model products to demonstrate the ability of current sensors (advanced IR sounding and lidar) to retrieve PBL properties and in turn their potential to be used globally to evaluate and improve weather and climate prediction models. While incremental progress has been made in recent AIRS retrieval versions, insufficient vertical resolution remains in terms of detecting PBL properties. Lidar shows promise in terms of detecting vertical gradients (and PBLh) in the lower troposphere, but daytime conditions over land remain a challenge due to noise, and their coverage is limited to approximately 2 weeks or longer return times.

AIRS↗

NASA NTRS2019

NCA-LDAS: Overview and Analysis of Hydrologic Trends for the National Climate Assessment

Terrestrial hydrologic trends over the conterminous United States are estimated for 1980-47 2015 using the National Climate Assessment-Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) reanalysis. NCA-LDAS employs the uncoupled Noah Version 3.3 land surface model at 0.125 degreesx0.125 degrees forced with NLDAS-2 meteorology, rescaled Climate Prediction Center precipitation, and assimilated satellite-based soil moisture, snow depth and irrigation products. Mean annual trends are reported using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test at p<0.1 significance. Results illustrate the interrelationship between regional gradients in forcing trends, and trends in other land energy and water stores and fluxes. Mean precipitation trends range from +3 to +9 mm/yr in the Upper Great Plains and Northeast to -1 to -9 in the West and South; net radiation flux trends range from +0.05 to +0.20 W/m(exp2)/yr in the East to -0.05 to -0.20 in the West; U.S.-wide temperature trends average about +0.03K/yr. Trends in soil moisture, snow cover, latent and sensible heat fluxes and runoff are consistent with forcings, contributing to increasing evaporative fraction trends from West to East. Evaluation of NCA-LDAS trends compared to independent data indicates mixed results. The RMSE of U.S.-wide trends in number of snow cover days improved from 3.13 to 2.89 days/yr while trend detection increased 11%; Trends in latent heat flux were hardly affected, RMSE decreasing only 0.17 to 0.16 W/m(exp 2)/yr, while trend detection increased 2%; NCA-LDAS runoff trends degraded significantly from 2.6 to 16.1 mm/yr while trend detection was unaffected. Analysis also indicated that NCA-LDAS exhibits relatively more skill in low precipitation station density areas, suggesting there are limits to the effectiveness of satellite data assimilation in densely gaged regions. Overall, NCA-LDAS demonstrates capability for quantifying physically consistent, U.S. hydrologic climate trends over the satellite era.

Snow depth↗

NASA NTRS2010

Orbital Gravity Gradiometry Beyond GOCE: Mission Concepts

Significant advances in the technologies needed for space-based cryogenic instruments have been made in the last decade, including cryocoolers, spacecraft architectures and cryogenic amplifiers. These enable considerably more complex instruments to be put into orbit for long-duration missions. One such instrument is the Superconducting Gravity Gradiometer (SGG) developed by Paik, et al. A magnetically levitated version is under consideration for a follow-on mission to GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer). With its inherently greater rejection of common mode accelerations and ability to cancel the coupling of angular accelerations into the gradient signal, the SGG can achieve [an accuracy of] 0.01 milli-Eotvos (gravitational gradient of the Earth) divided by the square root of frequency in hertz, with requirements for attitude control that can be met with existing spacecraft. In addition, the use of a cryocooler for cooling the instrument will alleviate the previously severe constraint on mission lifetime imposed by the use of superfluid helium,. enabling mission durations in the 5-10 year range. Studies are underway to determine requirements for orbit (polar versus sun-synchronous), altitude (which affects spacecraft drag), instrument temperature and stability, cryocooler vibration control, and control and readout electronics. These will be used to determine the SGG's sensitivity and ultimate resolution for gravity recovery. This paper will discuss preliminary instrument and spacecraft design, and toplevel mission requirements.

Shirron, Peter J.↗