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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Hydropower Energy Storage Capacity Dataset

The Hydropower Energy Storage Capacity (HESC) Dataset catalogues estimates of nominal energy storage capacity based on varying levels of detail. Dams and reservoirs selected were selected based on those reported in the National Inventory of Dams (NID 2019) and/or the Global Reservoir and Dam (GRanD v1.3) datasets. These data provide a foundation for understanding available resources at existing hydropower facilities and their potential to provide storage of energy and more flexible generation. Current estimates include Level 1 (based on maximum storage capacities and hydraulic head) and Level 2 (based on historical models or observations of reservoir volume and hydraulic head). For facilities where installed capacity is known, there are also estimates for discharge duration or the length of time when a facility could provide generation at a given capacity. Essential information used to calculate the energy storage capacity and discharge duration (volume, hydraulic head, and details about the sources or records used to obtain those parameters) and summaries of historical generation (for context) are also included.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Capacity Factor Trends & Analytics for the United States

This data repository contains all code, input data, and data generated for Turner et al. (2024)—“Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States”. File descriptions: – hydro-cf-trends-inputs.zip: Full set of input data used in this study, organized for direct entry into “/data” directory of hydro-cf-trends data processing pipeline. – hydro-cf-trends.zip: Full data processing pipeline, coded using the R {targets} framework. This is a snapshot release (v1.0) of the code repository stored at https://code.ornl.gov/turnersw/hydro-cf-trends/. – hydro-cf-trends-results.zip: Provides all dam level results required to reproduce results and graphics in Turner et al. (2024). Dams are identified by the “complxID” (root of the hydropower plant ID in the Existing Hydropower Assets Database, inherited from HILARRI). Results include: • dam_CF_trends.csv: Table of long-term trends in annualized capacity factors for 610 dams and modeled annualized capacity factors for 362 modeled dams (naturalized and assimilated flows). • dam_annualized_CF_gen.csv: Annualized time series of the following variables for each of 610 hydropower dams with nameplate > 5MW – Reported nameplate capacity (MW) – Implied maximum annual generation (MWh) – Reported net generation (MWh) – Computed annual capacity factor – Modeled annual capacity factor (362 modeled plants only)

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Potential impacts of advanced technologies on the ATC capacity of high-density terminal areas

Advanced technologies for airborne systems (automatic flight control, flight displays, navigation) and for ground ATC systems (digital communications, improved surveillance and tracking, automated decision-making) create the possibility of advanced ATC operations and procedures which can bring increased capacity for runway systems. A systematic analysis is carried out to identify certain such advanced ATC operations, and then to evaluate the potential benefits occurring over time at typical US high-density airports (Denver and Boston). The study is divided into three parts: (1) A Critical Examination of Factors Which Determine Operational Capacity of Runway Systems at Major Airports, is an intensive review of current US separation criteria and terminal area ATC operations. It identifies 11 new methods to increase the capacity of landings and takeoffs for runway systems; (2) Development of Risk Based Separation Criteria is the development of a rational structure for establishing reduced ATC separation criteria which meet a consistent Target Level of Safety using advanced technology and operational procedures; and (3) Estimation of Capacity Benefits from Advanced Terminal Area Operations - Denver and Boston, provides an estimate of the overall annual improvement in runway capacity which might be expected at Denver and Boston from using some of the advanced ATC procedures developed in Part 1. Whereas Boston achieved a substantial 37% increase, Denver only achieved a 4.7% increase in its overall annual capacity.

Simpson, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Effect of aerobic capacity on Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP) tolerance in females

This investigation determined whether a relationship exists in females between: (1) aerobic capacity and Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP); and (2) aerobic capacity and change in LBNP tolerance induced by bed rest. Nine females, age 27-47 (34.6 plus or minus 6.0 (Mean plus or minus SD)), completed a treadmill-graded exercise test to establish aerobic capacity. A presyncopal-limited LBNP test was performed prior to and after 13 days of bed rest at a 6 deg head-down tilt. LBNP tolerance was quantified as: (1) the absolute level of negative pressure (NP) tolerated for greater than or equal to 60 sec; and (2) Luft's Cumulative Stress Index (CSI). Aerobic capacity was 33.3 plus or minus 5.0 mL/kg/min and ranged from 25.7 to 38.7. Bed rest was associated with a decrease in NP tolerance (-9.04 1.6 kPa(-67.8 plus or minus 12.0 mmHg) versus -7.7 1.1 kPa(-57.8 plus or minus 8.33 mmHg); p = 0.028) and in CSI (99.4 27.4 kPa min(745.7 plus or minus 205.4 mmHg min) versus 77.0 16.9 kPa min (577.3 plus or minus mmHg min); p = 0.008). The correlation between aerobic capacity and absolute NP or CSI pre-bed rest did not differ significantly from zero (r = -0.56, p = 0.11 for NP; and r = -0.52, p = 0.16 for CSI). Also, no significant correlation was observed between aerobic and pre- to post-rest change for absolute NP tolerance (r = -0.35, p = 0.35) or CSI (r = -0.32, p = 0.40). Therefore, a significant relationship does not exist between aerobic capacity and orthostatic function or change in orthostatic function induced by bed rest.

Moore, Alan D., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The heat capacity of titanium disilicide

The heat capacity of TiSi2 has been measured in the temperature range 105-500 K. The heat capacity of TiSi2 varies monotonically between temperatures of 100 and 500 K with a reference value of 22.0 +/- 0.2 J/g atom K at 298.15 K. Based upon our heat capacity data, the standard molar entropy of TiSi2 at 298.15 K estimated to be 22.2 +/- 0.8 J/g atom K. Our data support estimates of the higher temperature heat capacity of TiSi2 based upon previously measured heat capacities of different, but similar, substances. A number of TiSi2 samples were prepared by rapidly quenching (greater than 10(exp 5) K/s) from the melt. The structure and the measured heat capacity of these samples were similar to those of well annealed samples, underscoring the thermal stability of this material.

Sylla, W. K.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Aviation System Analysis Capability Airport Capacity and Delay Models

The ASAC Airport Capacity Model and the ASAC Airport Delay Model support analyses of technologies addressing airport capacity. NASA's Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Airport Capacity Model estimates the capacity of an airport as a function of weather, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) procedures, traffic characteristics, and the level of technology available. Airport capacity is presented as a Pareto frontier of arrivals per hour versus departures per hour. The ASAC Airport Delay Model allows the user to estimate the minutes of arrival delay for an airport, given its (weather dependent) capacity. Historical weather observations and demand patterns are provided by ASAC as inputs to the delay model. The ASAC economic models can translate a reduction in delay minutes into benefit dollars.

Lee, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Capacity Management and Walkdown During LEO Cycling of Nickel-Hydrogen Cells and Batteries

This viewgraph presentation discusses the following topics: 1) Capacity walkdown defined and illustrated; 2) Importance of capacity walkdown: 3) Four approaches to understanding the phenomenon - Pressure Trend, Charging Curve, Electrochemical Voltage Spectroscopy, and Destructive Physical Analysis Studies; 4) Results of the interrelated studies; 5) Suggested mechanism for capacity walkdown; and 6) Charging protocols to avoid the problem. In summary: 1) capacity walkdown is a consequence of the inability to maintain a high state of charge; 2) Capacity loss is typically 35% which would be expected by the valence difference between gamma and beta nickel oxyhydroxide; 3) Cycling at -5 degrees facilitates the formation of the gamma phase; 4) Excessive overcharge can also facilitate gamma phase formation at the expense of cycle life; and 5) Conditions can now be suggested to help minimize capacity walkdown.

Thaller, Lawrence H.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Chemical State of Surface Oxygen on Carbon and Its Effects on the Capacity of the Carbon Anode in a Lithium-Ion Battery Investigated

In a lithium-ion battery, the lithium-storage capacity of the carbon anode is greatly affected by a surface layer formed during the first half cycle of lithium insertion and release into and out of the carbon anode. The formation of this solid-electrolyte interface, in turn, is affected by the chemistry of the carbon surface. A study at the NASA Glenn Research Center examined the cause-and-effect relations. Information obtained from this research could contribute in designing a high-capacity lithium-ion battery and, therefore, small, powerful spacecraft. In one test, three types of surfaces were examined: (1) a surface with low oxygen content (1.5 at.%) and a high concentration of active sites, (2) a surface with 4.5 at.% -OH or -OC type oxygen, and (3) a surface with 6.5 at.% O=C type oxygen. The samples were made from the same precursor and had similar bulk properties. They were tested under a constant current of 10 mA/g in half cells that used lithium metal as the counter electrode and 0.5 M lithium iodide in 50/50 (vol%) ethylene carbonate and dimethyl carbonate as the electrolyte. For the first cycle of the electrochemical test, the graph describes the voltage of the carbon anode versus the lithium metal as a function of the capacity (amount of lithium insertion or release). From these data, it can be observed that the surface with low oxygen and a high concentration of active sites could result in a high irreversible capacity. Such a high irreversible capacity could be prevented if the active sites were allowed to react with oxygen in air, producing -OH or -OC type oxygen. The O=C type oxygen, on the other hand, could greatly reduce the capacity of lithium intercalation and, therefore, needs to be avoided during battery fabrication.

Hung, Ching-Cheh↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Increased Treadmill Running and Lower-Body Resistance Training Intensity May Attenuate Aerobic Capacity Loss During Spaceflight

BACKGROUND: In-flight exercise training is the primary countermeasure to mitigate spaceflight-induced decrements in strength and aerobic capacity. Despite high-quality exercise capabilities and prescriptions aboard the International Space Station (ISS), most astronauts experience strength and aerobic capacity loss; however, significant individual variability exists. Recent findings suggest that greater in-flight running (i.e., distance per session) and lower-body resistance exercise intensity (i.e., load relative to body weight) help preserve strength. Whether similar variables contribute to the preservation of aerobic capacity during spaceflight is unknown. METHODS: A NASA database of exercise performance metrics was used to identify long-duration (≥ 90 days) ISS crew who completed pre- and post-flight aerobic capacity testing (VO2peak, cycle ergometry, n = 44). “Responders” (R) were classified as those that maintained or improved VO2peak (n = 13; 1.4 ± 3.3%), and “non-responders” (NR) were those with the most severe decrements (n = 13; -20.0 ± 3.4%) from pre- to post-flight. In-flight exercise records (cycling, treadmill, resistance exercise) were aggregated across flight weeks. Independent t-tests or Mann-Whitney U tests were used to compare training variables (i.e., frequency, time, intensity, volume) between R and NR. RESULTS: Consistent with the variables contributing to strength protection, in-flight running distance (R: 5.0 ± 0.7; NR: 4.2 ± 1.0 km/session, p = 0.020) and lower-body resistance exercise intensity (R: 110.9 ± 27.3; NR: 91.7 ± 16.5% body weight, p = 0.040) were greater in R than NR. Active running time was also greater in R than NR (R: 101.1 ± 20.4; NR: 82.3 ± 23.5 min/wk; p = 0.039). However, no group differences in cycling frequency, intensity, or time, as well as upper body or core resistance exercise intensity, volume, or frequency were observed. CONCLUSIONS: Although physiologically distinct stimuli, the exercise training variables contributing to the preservation of both strength and aerobic capacity during microgravity exposure appear to be consistent. Increased running time and distance, but not cycling, combined with higher-intensity lower-body resistance exercise, may help mitigate losses in both aerobic capacity and strength during long-duration spaceflight.

Alyssa N Varanoske↗
DOE OSTI2022

Enhancing Cycling Stability and Capacity Retention of NMC811 Cathodes by Reengineering Interfaces via Electrochemical Fluorination

High-capacity cathodes (LiNi 0.8 Mn 0.1 Co 0.1 O 2 ) that can boost the energy density of lithium-ion batteries are promising candidates for vehicle electrification. However, several factors specific to high energy density materials entailing electrode reactions inhibit their application. Fluorination has shown a promising ability to combat the detrimental electrochemical performances of cathode materials, however, it remains difficult to achieve the desired functionality. In this work, a novel electrochemical fluorination (ECF) that demonstrates a promising electrochemical performance enhancement via stabilization of the cathode–electrolyte-interphase (CEI) by forming conformal LiF is proposed. Besides LiF surface layer formation, ECF reduces the degree of fluorination-induced Ni/Li disordering and enhances the layered structural stability as probed by X-ray diffraction. Because of the robust CEI, ECF-NMC811 cathodes deliver 203.0 mAh g -1 first discharge capacity at the current rate of C/10, with ≈98% capacity retention up to 100 cycles. Similarly, it delivers ≈180 mAh g -1 capacity at a 1 C rate with 86.4% capacity retention up to 200 cycles with average coulombic efficiency of > 99.5%. Comprehensive characterization with a multitude of probes reveals that ECF enhances the cycling stability of the electrode without altering bulk structure and morphology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultrahigh-Capacity Rocksalt Cathodes Enabled by Cycling-Activated Structural Changes

Mn-redox-based oxides and oxyfluorides are considered the most promising earth-abundant high-energy cathode materials for next-generation lithium-ion batteries. While high capacities are obtained in high-Mn content cathodes such as Li- and Mn-rich layered and spinel-type materials, local structure changes and structural distortions ( often lead to voltage fade, capacity decay, and impedance rise, resulting in unacceptable electrochemical performance upon cycling. In the present study, structural transformations that exploit the high capacity of Mn-rich oxyfluorides while enabling stable cycling, in stark contrast to commonly observed structural changes that result in rapid performance degradation, are reported. Here, it is shown that upon cycling of a cation-disordered rocksalt (DRX) cathode (Li 1.1 Mn 0.8 Ti 0.1 O 1.9 F 0.1 , an ultrahigh capacity of ≈320 mAh g –1 (energy density of ≈900 Wh kg –1 ) can be obtained through dynamic structural rearrangements upon cycling , along with a unique voltage profile evolution and capacity rise. At high voltage, the presence of Mn 4+ and Li + vacancies promotes local cation ordering, leading to the formation of domains of a “δ phase” within the disordered framework. On deep discharge, Mn 4+ reduction, along with Li + insertion transform the structure to a partially ordered DRX phase with a β'-LiFeO 2 -type arrangement. At the nanoscale, domains of the in situ formed phases are randomly oriented, allowing highly reversible structural changes and stable electrochemical cycling. These new insights not only help explain the superior electrochemical performance of high-Mn DRXbut also provide guidance for the future development of Mn-based, high-energy density oxide, and oxyfluoride cathode materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

3D–Integrated, Multi–Functional Carbon Fibers for Stable, High–Areal–Capacity Batteries

Increasing lithium-ion batteries' (LIBs) electrode areal capacity can boost energy density and lower manufacturing costs, but faces challenges in manufacturing, rate performance, and cycling stability. A conductive framework made of commercial micro-sized carbon fibers (Cfs) is presented that serves as a host for both the LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC 532) cathode and Cfs anode. The Cf framework has multiple functions that offer high electronic conductivity (270 mS cm –1 ), low tortuosity (1.7), low Li + diffusion resistance (22 Ω), and high thermal conductivity (200 W mK –1 ). Additionally, the Cf-integrated electrodes can have an extremely high mass loading of NMC 532 (70 mg cm –2 ) with a theoretical capacity of 14 mAh cm –2 . Thus, the practical full cells assembled with the Cfs-enabled electrodes exhibit an initial areal capacity of 4.1 mAh cm –2 and capacity retention of 90.4% at 500 cycles at a cycling rate of C/3, 1.5 mA cm –2 . Data collected from the operando isothermal microcalorimetry suggest that full cells utilizing the Cf anode experience less heat release from side reactions compared to cells utilizing a conventional graphite anode. Finally, this present approach is scalable and cost-effective and can fabricate practical LIBs that boast high areal capacity, rate performance, and a lengthy cycling lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Uncertainties in Heat Capacity Measurements of Molten Salts Determined Using Differential Scanning Calorimetry

Uncertainty in specific heat capacity values of a molten salt determined by using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was assessed based on the precision of replicate measurements of heat flows used in the calculation and effects of corrections that are commonly made to heat flow measurements. The ratio method of determining heat capacity was applied using the results of replicate heat flow measurements made with two empty cells, a sapphire reference material, and three samples of a doped NaCl-UCl 3 salt mixture. Replicate measurements with empty cells were used to quantify the effects of system instabilities and sensitivities on the measured heat flows of sapphire and salt. The combined effects of uncertainties in individual heat flow measurements made with blank cells using this system were quantified to be 2.6 μV based on isothermal holds before and after the scan, with cell placement adding the greatest uncertainty. This value was used as the tolerance for accepting background-corrected heat flows measured with sapphire and salt to calculate the specific heat capacity. The acceptable heat flows measured for sapphire and salt over the temperature range of 540 to 725 °C resulted in calculated specific heat capacity values ranging from 0.53 to 0.91 J g −1 K −1 with an overall average value of 0.70 J g −1 K −1 and an uncertainty of 0.22 J g −1 K −1 at the 99 % confidence level. The combined uncertainty in the specific heat capacity masked detection of any effect of temperature or salt composition that occurred.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Group additivity values for entropy and heat capacities of C 2 –C 8 alkanes, alkyl hydroperoxides, and their radicals

Group additivity values for the thermodynamic properties of oxygenated radicals are poorly determined due to the absence of high quality reference data. Here, a set of 58 group additive values (GAV) for the standard entropy and heat capacity of relevance to alkane oxidation is derived from fits to an extensive and accurate database of standard entropies (298.15 K) and heat capacities (300–3000 K) recently calculated with the “STAR-1D” formalism. The 192 species in this database represent the alkanes (RH), alkyl radicals ($\dot{R}$), alkyl hydroperoxides (RO 2 H), alkyl-peroxy (R$\dot{O}$ 2 ) and hydroperoxy-alkyl ($\dot{Q}$OOH) radicals for all of the isomers of C 2 –C 5 alkane fuels and a select number of isomers of C 6 –C 9 species. The STAR-1D thermochemical data for this set of species was previously obtained from a coupling of scaled B2PLYPD3/cc-pVTZ vibrational analyses with scaled ωB97X-D/cc-pVTZ one-dimensional hindered rotor corrections. The 2σ uncertainties in the GAV results relative to the STAR-1D data set are 2.4 cal K –1 mol –1 for the entropies and at most 2.0 cal K –1 mol –1 for the heat capacities in the temperature range 500–800 K. The 2σ fitting uncertainties in the heat capacity gradually reduce at higher temperatures reaching a value of 0.8 cal K –1 mol –1 at 2000 K decreasing to only 0.5 cal K –1 mol –1 at 3000 K. The high degree of accuracy for the GAV representations is obtained through the introduction of various new group terms, together with the re-optimization of existing group terms. Among the full set of 58 GAV terms, 25 include non-next-nearest neighbor interactions (NNI) and β-corrections. The updated GAVs can be applied in the prediction of entropies and heat capacities for a wide range of hydrocarbons and hydroperoxide species and their radicals, which is important to the accurate prediction of fuel reactivity at low-temperatures in the range 600–1000 K.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Discrete versus continuous: Enhancing battery optimization in capacity expansion models

This study compares two battery modeling approaches for capacity expansion models: discrete-duration and continuous-duration formulations. In the discrete approach, battery duration is fixed, and power capacity is optimized. In the continuous approach, both power and energy capacities are decision variables, allowing storage duration to be optimized endogenously. Although both discrete-duration and continuous-duration battery formulations are used in long-term power system planning models, the literature has provided limited direct, systematic comparisons of their implications within a common modeling framework. To address this gap, this study implements both approaches in the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS TM ) capacity expansion model using two resource adequacy methods, across a range of future system conditions, and with varying battery cost projections. Results show continuous-duration and high-resolution discrete approaches produce similar capacity expansion outcomes. The continuous formulation achieves faster runtimes compared to discrete-duration runs with many discrete-duration options. However, the discrete-duration approach allows users to choose to have limited fidelity for storage duration options, which in some cases can outperform the continuous formulation. The continuous formulation has the lowest overall system costs, indicating its ability to fine-tune storage duration to better meet specific system needs. This study's findings provide a side-by-side evaluation of discrete and continuous battery modeling approaches and offer guidance for improving the representation of real-world systems, flexibility, and computational efficiency for representing energy storage in long-term power system planning models.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the capacity-fading mechanism of P2-type sodium layered oxide cathode materials during high-voltage cycling

We report P2-type sodium layered oxide cathode (Na 2/3 Ni 1/3 Mn 2/3 O 2 , P2-NNMO) has attracted great attention as a promising cathode material for sodium ion batteries because of its high specific capacity. However, this material suffers from a rapid capacity fade during high-voltage cycling. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the capacity fade, including intragranular fracture caused by the P2-O2 phase transion, surface structural change, and irreversible lattice oxygen release. Here we systematically investigated the morphological, structural, and chemical changes of P2-NNMO during high-voltage cycling using a variety of characterization techniques. It was found that the lattice distortion and crystal-plane buckling induced by the P2-O2 phase transition slowed down the Na-ion transport in the bulk and hindered the extraction of the Na ions. The sluggish kinetics was the main reason in reducing the accessible capacity while other interfacial degradation mechanisms played minor roles. Our results not only enabled a more complete understanding of the capacity-fading mechanism of P2-NNMO but also revealed the underlying correlations between lattice doping and the moderately improved cycle performance.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Elucidating the mechanism underlying the augmented capacity of MoO 2 as an anode material in Li-ion batteries

Transition-metal oxide anode materials have been observed to possess an intriguing surplus of capacity beyond the expected values based on conversion reaction. However, the mechanisms behind this phenomenon have remained contentious and elusive. Here, this study focuses on synthesized nanosized molybdenum dioxide and its electrochemical performance as an anode material for Li-ion batteries. Our findings reveal a substantial increase in capacity upon cycling, achieving approximately 1688 mA h g -1 , nearly double the theoretical capacity, after 700 cycles at a 1C rate. To elucidate the mechanisms underlying this augmented capacity, a comprehensive analysis employing in situ and ex situ X-ray diffraction, X-ray absorption spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy was conducted at various stages of the Li-ion cell cycling. Our results indicate that no conversion reaction occurs during the initial discharge phase, with Li 2 O and Mo remaining undetected. Instead, Li 0.98 MoO 2 is generated upon lithiation. Further materials characterization employing electron energy loss spectroscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy on the cycled electrode suggests the potential formation of a metallic Li-rich layer at the interface of the Li-ion intercalated phase subsequent to the formation of Li 0.98 MoO 2 , contributing to the surplus Li storage. Moreover, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy coupled with ex situ SEM and TEM analyses reveals that alterations in particle size and morphology, along with changes in the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) resistance, are instrumental in the capacity variation observed upon cycling.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions and carbon intensity of U.S. fuel use and projection for the next 10 years-based on built capacity and expansion plans

The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 supports biofuel production expansion through the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit, replacing previous 40A and 40B credits. This follows on the Renewable Fuel Standard from the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and its expansion in 2007. States like California, Oregon, and Washington also offer clean fuel credits. Meanwhile, federal agencies, including the U.S. Department of Energy, have advanced alternative fuel technologies through research and development funding. The surging interest in the biofuel industry has spurred the demand for biofuel supplies in the markets, although achieving profitability for advanced biofuels and low-carbon e-fuels remains challenging. This study aims to track U.S. alternative fuel production capacity expansion plans over the next 10 years and estimate impacts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. By tracking built capacity and industry announcements of planned expansion, this study complements other studies which use models to predict changes in energy technologies and the associated GHG implications. Modeled projections of future technologies are often criticized for over or underestimating the cost and potential role of new technologies. The study focuses on sustainable aviation fuel, renewable diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable natural gas. Using facility-level data, we conducted a bottom-up analysis linking biofuel production pathways with corresponding pathways and parameterizations in the Argonne R&D GREET model. Results indicate that biofuel capacity could reach 3.8 exajoules in 2035, potentially reducing U.S. GHG emissions by 179 million tonnes, including the full life cycle. This corresponds to a 20% reduction in transportation and 5% in industry sector emissions by 2035, or a 3.6% reduction in economy-wide emissions. Overall, this study shows that while biofuel production capacity in the U.S. is expanding, the capacities remain limited compared to fuel demand. Uncertainty regarding the durability and extension of incentives may be dampening the pace of growth. Meanwhile, demonstrating the commercial potential for alternative fuels and climbing the learning curve for new technologies could lead to an increased pace of expansion in later years. This study offers insights for bioenergy stakeholders, highlighting biofuel technologies' contribution to U.S. energy system and emissions reduction over time based on producers' plans.

Biofuel Producers↗