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DOE OSTI2020

Validation and Independent Uncertainty Analysis of the MIX-SOL-THERM-003 ICSBEP Benchmark

The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) was started in 1992 by the United States Department of Energy and later in 1995 became an international project with contributions from 22 countries. The project is now organized by the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA). In its most recent iteration, the ICSBEP handbook contains over five thousand evaluations of critical, near-critical, and subcritical experiments conducted in facilities all around the world. These benchmarks serve as valuable information for criticality safety engineers who can use them to validate calculation techniques and establish minimum subcritical margins for operations with fissionable materials. The benchmarks in the handbook are categorized by their fissile material composition, material form (oxide, solution, or metal), and fission energy spectra. This is especially useful for those looking for benchmarks similar to a system they are working on to compare methods and identify trends. The ICSBEP Handbook Uncertainty Guide is document outlining recommended practices and methods for determining uncertainties in these benchmarks. Quantifying these uncertainties thoroughly is crucial as it allows a higher degree of confidence that data used from them is valid and relevant. The guide stresses the importance of a thorough and well documented uncertainty analysis when evaluating an experiment. All measured values of a system, whether they be dimensions or material compositions, have a certain amount of uncertainty associated with them and can be analyzed one by one to determine their effects on the system. Many evaluated benchmarks in the handbook present this in detail, however some do not, mostly earlier evaluations performed in the 1990’s and early 2000’s. Recently at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), the Nuclear Criticality Safety Division (NCSD) of LANL has been validating MCNP6.2 ® input files of criticality benchmarks for use by Whisper, a criticality safety code developed at LANL. This effort is also part of the OECD NEA Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Co-operation (WPEC) Subgroup 45, also known as Validation of Nuclear Data Libraries (VaNDaL). The goal of VaNDaL is to compile a set of validated simulation inputs for use in validating nuclear data and simulation codes. As part of these efforts, one of the benchmarks reviewed was the MIX SOL-THERM-003 ICSBEP benchmark. This paper provides an independent uncertainty analysis of this benchmark experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1994

Structural design feasibility study of Space Station long spacer truss

The structural design and configuration feasibility of the long spacer truss assembly that will be used as part of the Space Station Freedom is the focus of this study. The structural analysis discussed herein is derived from the transient loading events presented in the Space Transportation System Interface Control Document (STS ICD). The transient loading events are liftoff, landing, and emergency landing loads. Quasi-static loading events were neglected in this study since the magnitude of the quasi-static acceleration factors is lower than that of the transient acceleration factors. Structural analysis of the proposed configuration of the long spacer truss with four longerons indicated that negative safety margins are possible. As a result, configuration changes were proposed. The primary configuration change suggested was to increase the number of truss longerons to six. The six-longeron truss appears to be a more promising structure than the four-longeron truss because it offers a positive margin of safety and more volume in its second bay (BAY2). This additional volume can be used for resupply of some of the orbital replacement units (such as a battery box). Note that the design effort on the long spacer truss has not fully begun and that calculations and reports of the negative safety margins are, to date, based on concept only.

Armand, Sasan C.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Lower bounds on entanglement entropy without twin copy

We discuss the possibility of estimating experimentally the von Neumann entanglement entropy S A v N of a symmetric bipartite quantum system A B by using the basic measurement counts (bitstrings) for a single copy of a prepared state. Using exact diagonalization and analog simulations performed with the publicly available QuEra facilities for chains and ladders of Rydberg atoms, we calculate the Shannon entropy S A B X associated with the bitstrings of adiabatically prepared ground states and the reduced entropies S A X and S B X obtained from the marginal probabilities in A and B . We then calculate the classical mutual information I A B X = S A X + S B X − S A B X , which is a lower bound on S A v N . We show that for a broad range of lattice spacing and detuning, I A B X is typically 20% below S A v N in regions where S A v N is large and a less close bound in regions where S A v N is low. We argue that this use of the easily available bitstrings provides a robust and efficient way to explore empirically the phase diagram of qubit-based quantum simulators and identify critical regions. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Meurice, Yannick (ORCID:0000000209959694)↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Role of Margin in Link Design and Optimization

Link analysis is a system engineering process in the design, development, and operation of communication systems and networks. Link models that are mathematical abstractions representing the useful signal power and the undesirable noise and attenuation effects (including weather effects if the signal path transverses through the atmosphere) that are integrated into the link budget calculation that provides the estimates of signal power and noise power at the receiver. Then the link margin is applied which attempts to counteract the fluctuations of the signal and noise power to ensure reliable data delivery from transmitter to receiver. (Link margin is dictated by the link margin policy or requirements.) A simple link budgeting approach assumes link parameters to be deterministic values typically adopted a rule-of-thumb policy of 3 dB link margin. This policy works for most S- and X-band links due to their insensitivity to weather effects. But for higher frequency links like Ka-band, Ku-band, and optical communication links, it is unclear if a 3 dB link margin would guarantee link closure. Statistical link analysis that adopted the 2-sigma or 3-sigma link margin incorporates link uncertainties in the sigma calculation. (The Deep Space Network (DSN) link margin policies are 2-sigma for downlink and 3-sigma for uplink.) The link reliability can therefore be quantified statistically even for higher frequency links. However in the current statistical link analysis approach, link reliability is only expressed as the likelihood of exceeding the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold that corresponds to a given bit-error-rate (BER) or frame-error-rate (FER) requirement. The method does not provide the true BER or FER estimate of the link with margin, or the required signalto-noise ratio (SNR) that would meet the BER or FER requirement in the statistical sense. In this paper, we perform in-depth analysis on the relationship between BER/FER requirement, operating SNR, and coding performance curve, in the case when the channel coherence time of link fluctuation is comparable or larger than the time duration of a codeword. We compute the "true" SNR design point that would meet the BER/FER requirement by taking into account the fluctuation of signal power and noise power at the receiver, and the shape of the coding performance curve. This analysis yields a number of valuable insights on the design choices of coding scheme and link margin for the reliable data delivery of a communication system - space and ground. We illustrate the aforementioned analysis using a number of standard NASA error-correcting codes.

Cheung, K.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Macroscopic trends of neoclassical tearing stability in high-field H-mode tokamak pilot plants

The neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) stability metric—minimum marginally stable island width $w$$^{*}_{m}$—was compared across 14651 inductive high-field tokamak pilot plant equilibria. Larger devices with reduced elongation and/or increased minor radius demonstrated an order-of-magnitude increase in $w$$^{*}_{m}$, primarily due to a reduction in bootstrap drive. This work is part of an ongoing effort to ensure passive NTM-stability in the ARC tokamak, in which the technology to achieve active tearing-suppression with localised electron cyclotron current drive does not yet exist. The equilibrium scenarios in the database were Monte Carlo generated and normalised to the same >400MW fusion power, minimum pressure scenario at a range of plasma currents, before tearing analysis using the modified Rutherford equation was applied for all resonant poloidal and toroidal m, n modes up to n = 4. Single-helicity toroidal Δ' calculations in resistive DCON set the minimum marginally stable island width, and a simple modal scaling proportional to –m 2 n –1 was identified for high-m Δ' values. The dominant correlates of $w$$^{*}_{m}$ and Δ' across the database were analysed using interpretable machine learning techniques.

NTM seeding↗

NASA NTRS1988

Intermolecular potential for thermal H2O-He collisions

Theoretical potentials for rotational excitation of H2O by He were constructed via several methods, all of which start with a large basis set SCF interaction. The semiempirical Hartree-Fock with damped dispersion model adds a damped long-range attraction with parameters adjusted to fit experimental total differential cross sections. Purely ab initio potentials add correlation energies obtained via perturbation theory (MP2 and MP4) or a variational method (ICF1). Scattering calculations were performed on all surfaces to compare wih available beam scattering and pressure broadening data and to assess sensitivity of state-to-state rates to uncertainties in the potential. From comparison with the limited experimental data, the ICF1 surface appears to be marginally better than the MP4 surface. Thermal rates calculated from this surface should be accurate to better than 50 percent, at least for the larger, more important rates.

Palma, Amedeo↗

NASA NTRS2018

Enhanced Firn Densification in High‐Accumulation Shear Margins of the NE Greenland Ice Stream

Firn thickness across the NE Greenland Ice Stream is a function of accumulated strain, with thinner firn in the high‐strain margins of the ice stream. We present a novel technique for extracting firn density from previously collected seismic reflection profiles and apply this technique across both shear margins of NE Greenland Ice Stream. Firn is up to 30 m thinner in the vicinity of the ice stream shear margins. Snow accumulation rates across the ice stream were calculated from airborne ice‐penetrating radar data, calibrated with ground‐based firn density measurements from a shallow core. We find that accumulation is ~20% higher in the shear margins compared to the surroundings. The higher density firn adjacent to shear margins is due to high along‐flow stresses that accelerate firn densification and develops despite the higher accumulation rate favoring lower density. These firn density variations influence subglacial hydropotential by changing the ice surface slope and overburden pressure and may influence subglacial water flow. These results demonstrate the importance of high‐resolution firn surveys in studies of shear‐margin dynamics.

ice stream↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extension of Complex Refractive Index Measurements to the Near-Infrared for Liquids: Methodology and Uncertainty Analysis

Optical identification of liquid droplets, aerosols, or thin films is important for many applications. While reference spectra are sometimes available for such measurements, they are not always applicable to the observed spectrum or the given sample morphology. Reference spectra for many forms can be modeled, however, if the n/k vectors (real and imaginary refractive indices) are available. In previous work we have reported protocols to determine the n/k vectors for dozens of liquids, primarily in the mid-infrared (MIR) spectral range from 7500 to 400 cm –1 . In this work we extend the spectral range into the near-infrared (NIR) region, demonstrating a method to measure and merge the data sets to create composite n/k data ranging from 10 000 to 400 cm –1 (1.0 to 25 µm) with absorbance fidelity spanning over four orders of magnitude, and vastly improved signal-to-noise in the NIR. The precision of the composite data is evaluated for three different liquids, focusing primarily on the steps for converting the raw absorbance spectra to k values. The variability in both MIR and NIR data as well as in the final n/k vectors is also investigated for several liquids. For typical liquids, the overall variability (reported as 2σ) in the final n and k-vectors is determined to be ∼0.4% and 3%, respectively. Finally, the derived n/k data are used to calculate absorbance spectra for aerosol droplets, showing marginal variability due to the typical measurement errors in the final n/k vectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

NASA NTRS1974

Fractional watt Vuillemier cryogenic refrigerator program engineering notebook. Volume 2: Stress analysis

A structural analysis performed on the 1/4-watt cryogenic refrigerator. The analysis covered the complete assembly except for the cooling jacket and mounting brackets. Maximum stresses, margin of safety, and natural frequencies were calculated for structurally loaded refrigerator components shown in assembly drawings. The stress analysis indicates that the design is satisfactory for the specified vibration environment, and the proof, burst, and normal operating loads.

Miller, W. S.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Integrated structure-control optimization of space structures

In the past few years there has been substantial interest in the integrated design of large space structures and their vibration control systems. This paper overviews two aspects of integrated control-structure design. The first is the calculation of derivatives of control system stability margins with respect to structural parameters, and the effect of modal truncation on the accuracy of these derivatives. The second aspect is the various formulations used to define an integrated design optimization problem.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Ice Mass Fluctuations and Earthquake Hazard

In south central Alaska, tectonic strain rates are high in a region that includes large glaciers undergoing ice wastage over the last 100-150 years [Sauber et al., 2000; Sauber and Molnia, 2004]. In this study we focus on the region referred to as the Yakataga segment of the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone in Alaska. In this region, the Bering and Malaspina glacier ablation zones have average ice elevation decreases from 1-3 meters/year (see summary and references in Molnia, 2005). The elastic response of the solid Earth to this ice mass decrease alone would cause several mm/yr of horizontal motion and uplift rates of up to 10-12 mm/yr. In this same region observed horizontal rates of tectonic deformation range from 10 to 40 mm/yr to the north-northwest and the predicted tectonic uplift rates range from -2 mm/year near the Gulf of Alaska coast to 12mm/year further inland [Savage and Lisowski, 1988; Ma et al, 1990; Sauber et al., 1997, 2000, 2004; Elliot et al., 2005]. The large ice mass changes associated with glacial wastage and surges perturb the tectonic rate of deformation at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The associated incremental stress change may enhance or inhibit earthquake occurrence. We report recent (seasonal to decadal) ice elevation changes derived from data from NASA's ICESat satellite laser altimeter combined with earlier DEM's as a reference surface to illustrate the characteristics of short-term ice elevation changes [Sauber et al., 2005, Muskett et al., 2005]. Since we are interested in evaluating the effect of ice changes on faulting potential, we calculated the predicted surface displacement changes and incremental stresses over a specified time interval and calculated the change in the fault stability margin using the approach given by Wu and Hasegawa [1996]. Additionally, we explored the possibility that these ice mass fluctuations altered the seismic rate of background seismicity. Although we primarily focus on evaluating the influence of ice mass changes since the end of the little Ice Age, the study is partially motivated by paleoseismic evidence from Yakataga and Kodiak regions which suggests that earlier glacier retreat may be associated with large earthquakes [Sauber et al., 2000; Carver et al., 2003].

Sauber, J.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Tailored Excitation for Frequency Response Measurement Applied to the X-43A Flight Vehicle

An important aspect of any flight research project is assessing aircraft stability and flight control performance. In some programs this assessment is accomplished through the estimation of the in-flight vehicle frequency response. This estimation has traditionally been a lengthy task requiring separate swept sine inputs for each control axis at a constant flight condition. Hypersonic vehicles spend little time at any specific flight condition while they are decelerating. Accordingly, it is difficult to use traditional methods to calculate the vehicle frequency response and stability margins for this class of vehicle. A technique has been previously developed to significantly reduce the duration of the excitation input by tailoring the input to excite only the frequency range of interest. Reductions in test time were achieved by simultaneously applying tailored excitation signals to multiple control loops, allowing a quick estimate of the frequency response of a particular aircraft. This report discusses the flight results obtained from applying a tailored excitation input to the X-43A longitudinal and lateral-directional control loops during the second and third flights. The frequency responses and stability margins obtained from flight data are compared with preflight predictions.

Baumann, Ethan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Creation of the VADER Code in SCALE [Abstract]

The VADER (Validation Analysis Data Evaluation Resource) is a new module in SCALE 6.3 that has been derived from the legacy USLSTATS program. VADER is a tool that allows the determination of bias and bias uncertainty for criticality safety computational methods. The older USLSTATS program, written in Java, existed outside of SCALE and provided tools to calculate only the confidence band with administrative margin (sometimes called USL-1) and the single-sided uniform width closed interval (USL-2). For normality testing it only offered a crude chi- squared normality test that had no user-configurable options and presented a simple pass/no-pass functionality.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Fractal analysis: A new remote sensing tool for lava flows

Many important quantitative parameters have been developed that relate to the rheology and eruption and emplacement mechanics of lavas. This research centers on developing additional, unique parameters, namely the fractal properties of lava flows, to add to this matrix of properties. There are several methods of calculating the fractal dimension of a lava flow margin. We use the 'structured walk' or 'divider' method. In this method, we measure the length of a given lava flow margin by walking rods of different lengths along the margin. Since smaller rod lengths transverse more smaller-scaled features in the flow margin, the apparent length of the flow outline will increase as the length of the measuring rod decreases. By plotting the apparent length of the flow outline as a function of the length of the measuring rod on a log-log plot, fractal behavior can be determined. A linear trend on a log-log plot indicates that the data are fractal. The fractal dimension can then be calculated from the slope of the linear least squares fit line to the data. We use this 'structured walk' method to calculate the fractal dimension of many lava flows using a wide range of rod lengths, from 1/8 to 16 meters, in field studies of the Hawaiian islands. We also use this method to calculate fractal dimensions from aerial photographs of lava flows, using lengths ranging from 20 meters to over 2 kilometers. Finally, we applied this method to orbital images of extraterrestrial lava flows on Venus, Mars, and the Moon, using rod lengths up to 60 kilometers.

Bruno, B. C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LOFTID Aeroshell Thermal Response Uncertainty Analysis Utilizing the End-to-End Monte Carlo Approach

A probabilistic thermal margin process has been performed to design the flexible thermal protection system (FTPS) and select entry trajectory constraints given an acceptable risk level for the Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of and Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) project. Uncertainties exist in atmospheric entry aeroheating environments and the predicted thermal response of thermal protection system (TPS) material. Entry vehicle TPS is often over-sized to mitigate uncertainty by combining conservative bounding scenarios together. The probabilistic thermal margin process allows engineers to make informed aeroshell design, flight design, and FTPS performance risk trades while preventing excessive FTPS margin from being applied. This paper describes the uncertainty analysis methodology used to carry out a probabilistic thermal margin process used for LOFTID’s aeroshell and explains how the calculated probability of exceeding flight allowable temperatures is used to design the FTPS and establish nominal flight design constraints. This probabilistic thermal margin process had never been applied to entry, decent, and landing design for a flown entry vehicle and it is one of the LOFTID project’s goals to demonstrate its merits.

Steven Andrew Tobin↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the Language of Reliability: A System Engineer Perspective

In its classical definition, risk is defined by three elements: what can go wrong, what are its consequences, and how likely is it to occur? While this definition makes sense in a regulatory-based framework where for the current fleet of operating light water reactors (LWRs), the risks associated with nuclear power plants typically are characterized in terms of core damage and large early release frequency (LERF), this approach does not provide a useful snapshot of the health of the plant from a broader perspective. This is due to the very narrow context in which the term “risk” typically is defined as nuclear safety aspects that have the potential to impact public health. In this paper, we take the viewpoint of nuclear safety that is reflective of the current fleet of operating LWRs for which core damage frequency and LERF are appropriate metrics. For other advanced reactor designs, other more applicable technology neutral metrics of reactor safety metrics would be specified. A possible alternate path would start by redefining the word risk with a broader meaning that better reflects the needs of a system health and asset management decision-making process. Rather than asking how likely an event could occur (in probabilistic terms), we can ask how far this event is from occurring. Our approach starts by defining and quantifying component and system health in terms of a “distance” between its actual and limiting conditions, i.e., determination of the margin that exists between the current state/condition and the state where the component/system is no longer capable of achieving its intended function. A margin is a measure that is more reflective of the current state or performance of a component, and therefore more closely tied to decisions that are made on an ongoing basis. Further, we will show how, given the data available from plant equipment reliability and monitoring (e.g., pump vibration data) and prognostic (e.g., component remaining useful life estimation) data, a margin can be described and determined for all types of maintenance approaches (e.g., corrective or predictive maintenance). We show how classical reliability models (e.g., fault trees) can be used to quantify the system margin provided component margin values. In the approach described in this paper, the propagation of margin values through classical reliability models are not performed using classical probabilistic calculations applied to sets (as performed in a typical plant probabilistic risk assessment). Instead, we show how it is possible to propagate margin values through Boolean logic gates (i.e., AND and OR operators) through distance-based operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Level structures of 56,58 Ca cast doubt on a doubly magic 60 Ca

Gamma decays were observed in 56 Ca and 58 Ca following quasi-free one-proton knockout reactions from 57,59 Sc beams at ≈200 MeV/nucleon. For 56 Ca, a γ ray transition was measured to be 1456(12) keV, while for 58 Ca an indication for a transition was observed at 1115(34) keV. Both transitions were tentatively assigned as the $2^{+}_{1}\rightarrow0^{+}_{gs}$ decays, and were compared to results from ab initio and conventional shell-model approaches. A shell-model calculation in a wide model space with a marginally modified effective nucleon-nucleon interaction depicts excellent agreement with experiment for $2^{+}_{1}$ level energies, two-neutron separation energies, and reaction cross sections, corroborating the formation of a new nuclear shell above the N = 34 shell. Its constituents, the 0$f$ 5/2 and 0$g$ 9/2 orbitals, are almost degenerate. This degeneracy precludes the possibility for a doubly magic 60 Ca and potentially drives the dripline of Ca isotopes to 70 Ca or even beyond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗