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DOE OSTI2026

In Search of Strategic Advantage: Understanding the Landscape of Technology Competition

In an era of seemingly ever-increasing global tensions, technology competition is often mentioned as a pathway for U.S. and allied success. The opening arguments are often very simple. “This is the most important struggle of the 21st century.” “We cannot afford to lose this competition.” “The United States must not fall behind in this race.” “We must be faster, more agile, more committed, more thoughtful than our competitors.” Competition around a particular technology is described as a once in a generational struggle with immense stakes. “This is a Sputnik moment” is a common analogy. The solutions proposed are fairly straightforward – more of everything. We should spend more money. We should build more widgets or more factories. We should innovate more. We should focus more. We should attract more talent. We should file more patents. We should produce more PhDs. If we do more of everything, we will have more technology than our opponents, they will see our technological advantage, they will not challenge us, and therefore we will win. If we fail to do these things, we will lose. To paraphrase Homer Simpson, in national security policy discussions technology competition has become the cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems. And yet, beyond doing more across the board technology competition is not at all simple. First, it is a concept increasingly muddled together with other big issues such as innovation policy, national defense strategy, great power competition, allied cooperation, public-private partnerships, and a host of other issues. Certain policies, systems, coalitions, and so on may be excellent for tackling one challenge, but far less optional for others. Second, it is inherently dynamic, an action-reaction cycle between multiple players. A brilliant opening move can be squandered or successfully countered in subsequent moves. Third, there are limits to what you can do - limited time, limited financial resources, limited human capital, and limited knowledge of what lies ahead. One is forced to choose.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2001

National General Aviation Design Competition Project Report

This report summarizes the management of the National General Aviation Design Competition on behalf of NASA, the FAA and the Air Force by the Virginia Space Grant Consortium (VSGC) for the time period October 1, 1999 through September 30, 2000. This was the VSGC's sixth year of managing the Competition, which the Consortium originally designed, developed and implemented for NASA and the FAA. The seventh year of the Competition was announced in July 2000. Awards to winning university teams were presented at a ceremony held at AirVenture 2000, the Experimental Aircraft Association's Annual Convention and Fly-In at Oshkosh, WIS. NASA, FAA and AOPA administrators presented the awards. The competition calls for individuals or teams of undergraduate and graduate students from U.S. engineering schools to participate in a major national effort to rebuild the U.S. general aviation sector. For the purpose of the contest, General aviation aircraft are defined as fixed wing, single or dual engine (turbine or piston), single-pilot aircraft for 2-6 passengers. In addressing design challenges for a small aircraft transportation system, the competition seeks to raise student awareness of the importance of general aviation and to stimulate breakthroughs in technology and their application in the general aviation market. The Competition has two categories: Innovative Design, and Design It, Build It, Fly It. Awards were given in both categories for this reporting year.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2010

2010 NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate: Lunabotics Mining Competition Systems Engineering Paper

A fast growing approach in determining the best design concept for a problem is to hold a competition in which the rules are based on requirements similar to the actual problem. By going public with such competitions, sponsoring entities receive some of the most innovative engineering solutions in a fraction of the time and cost it would have taken to develop such concepts internally. Space exploration is a large benefactor of such design competitions as seen by the results of X-Prize Foundation and NASA lunar excavation competitions [1]. The results of NASA's past lunar excavator challenges has led to the need for an effective means of collecting lunar regolith in the absence of human beings. The 2010 Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) Lunar Excavation Challenge was created "to engage and retain students in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, or STEM, in a competitive environment that may result in innovative ideas and solutions, which could be applied to actual lunar excavation for NASA." [2]. The ESMD Challenge calls for "teams to use telerobotics or autonomous operations to excavate at least 10kg of lunar regolith simulant in a 15 minute time limit" [2]. The Systems Engineering approach was used in accordance with Auburn University's mechanical engineering senior design course (MECH 4240-50) to develop a telerobotic lunar excavator, seen in Fig. 1, that fulfilled requirements imposed by the NASA ESMD Competition Rules. The goal of the senior design project was to have a validated lunar excavator that would be used in the NASA ESMD lunar excavation challenge.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2012

Lunabotics Mining Competition: Inspiration through Accomplishment

Space Mining for resources such as water ice, and regolith, which contain many elements in the form of metals, minerals, volatiles and other compounds, is a necessary step in Space Resource Utilization. One of the primary goals is to extract propellants from the regolith such as oxygen and hydrogen which could then be used for in-space transportation. In addition, the space mining system can be used for various construction tasks that can benefit human and robotic exploration as well as scientific investigations based on the exposed topography. The National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) Lunabotics Mining Competition is a university-level competition designed to engage and retain students in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). NASA will directly benefit from the competition by encouraging the development of innovative lunar excavation concepts from universities which may result in clever ideas and solutions which could be applied to an actual lunar excavation device or payload. The challenge is for students to design and build a remote controlled or autonomous excavator, called a lunabot, that can collect and deposit a minimum of 10 kilograms of lunar simulant within 15 minutes. The complexities of the challenge include the abrasive characteristics of the lunar simulant, the weight and size limitations of the lunabot, and the ability to control the lunabot from a remote control center or operate autonomously. This paper will present an update of the results and lessons learned during the first and second annual Lunabotics Mining Competitions held in May 2010 and May 2011. It will also preview the 2012 competition with a review of the revised rules. In 2010,22 United States (US) universities competed, and in May 2011 the competition was opened to international participation. In 2011, 36 teams actually competed from 26 USA states and 4 foreign countries (India, Bangladesh, Colombia and Canada). This combined total directly inspired an estimated 653 university students. In 2012 more students and the public will be engaged via internet broadcasting and social networking media. The various designs will be cataloged and categorized to provide information to future Lunabotics mining robot designers and competitors. It is also expected to be of value for actual future space missions, as knowledge is gained from testing many innovative prototypes in simulated lunar regolith.

Mueller, Robert P.↗

NASA NTRS2017

NASA's Robotic Mining Competition Provides Undergraduates Full Life Cycle Systems Engineering Experience

NASA has held an annual robotic mining competition for teams of university/college students since 2010. This competition is yearlong, suitable for a senior university engineering capstone project. It encompasses the full project life cycle from ideation of a robot design, through tele-operation of the robot collecting regolith in simulated Mars conditions, to disposal of the robot systems after the competition. A major required element for this competition is a Systems Engineering Paper in which each team describes the systems engineering approaches used on their project. The score for the Systems Engineering Paper contributes 25% towards the team’s score for the competition’s grand prize. The required use of systems engineering on the project by this competition introduces the students to an intense practical application of systems engineering throughout a full project life cycle.

Stecklein, Jonette↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Lunabotics Robotic Mining Competition 10th Anniversary (2010-2019): Taxonomy and Technology Review

Space Mining for resources such as water ice, and regolith, which contain many elements in the form of metals, minerals, volatiles and other compounds, is a necessary step for In-Situ Space Resource Utilization (ISRU). One of the primary goals is to extract propellants from the regolith and water ice, such as oxygen and hydrogen which could then be used for in-space transportation. In addition, the space mining system can be used for various construction tasks that can benefit human and robotic exploration as well as scientific investigations based on excavated exposed topography, such as the side walls of trenches. The National Aeronautics & Space Administration (NASA) "Lunabotics" Robotic Mining Competition (RMC) is a university-level competition designed to engage and retain students in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). NASA has directly benefited from the competition by encouraging the development of innovative lunar excavation concepts from universities which has resulted in clever ideas and solutions which could be applied to an actual lunar excavation device or payload. The challenge is for students to design and build a remote controlled or autonomous excavator, called a "lunabot", which can collect and deposit a minimum of 10 kilograms of lunar simulant within 15 minutes. In recent years the goal has been changed to excavate a minimum of 1 kg of simulated icy regolith which is found under an overburden of regolith simulant. The complexities of the challenge include the abrasive characteristics of the lunar regolith simulant, the weight and size limitations of the lunabot, and the ability to control the lunabot from a remote-control center or operate it autonomously. This paper will present the results of the ten Lunabotics Robotic Mining Competitions held between May 2010 and May 2019. Each year over 50 university teams have attended, resulting in over 500 lunabot designs and subsequent prototypes. Over 6,000 university students have been part of the on-site competition at KSC. Even more students and the public were engaged via internet broadcasting and social networking media. The various designs have been cataloged and categorized here to provide information to future Lunabotics RMC mining robot designers and competitors. Categories will focus on both the mechanical design as well as the autonomy architecture/design. It is also expected to be of value for actual future space missions, as knowledge is gained from testing many innovative prototypes in simulated lunar regolith. A taxonomy of robotic excavator designs has been presented. In addition, the paper will discuss changes in learning paradigms occurring in the current generation of students, and how this competition leverages those changes to challenge students to develop skills in graduate level concepts and apply them. Examples of how this translates to hiring opportunities for commercial sponsors has also been discussed.

Robert P Mueller↗

DOE OSTI2018

Nuclear, Land marker for a Waste Isolation Site: International Architecture Competition - 18240

The design and construction of a nuclear waste marker must include many architectural considerations. Very little research has been conducted by architects to address this issue to date. Historically, the task of designating a nuclear waste site has been a discussion predominantly contained within the scientific and engineering communities. In an effort to engage architects within this dialogue, arch out loud hosted the NUCLEAR competition as an international, architectural investigation into the design of a nuclear waste site marker. The NUCLEAR competition asks participants to design a marker to designate the site of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) located near Carlsbad, New Mexico. The marker will be meant to be a means of passive institutional controls (PICs) to deter inadvertent human intrusion upon the site and should last 10,000 years. The NUCLEAR competition defined the purpose of the nuclear waste site marker as a means to communicate the danger of inadvertent intrusion from future generations. The competition requires that entries must be both legible in communication and durable in their construction. The competition brief challenged participants to consider how customs and languages will evolve over time and to predict what motivations future generations might have for digging at the site. Other background information was provided about the site such as how waste was stored and how the unique geology of the site seals the waste. The 1993 Sandia National Laboratories report titled Expert Judgment on Markers to Deter Inadvertent Human Intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant [1] was referenced along with the 1992 WIPP Land Withdrawal Act [2], interviews with WIPP scientists [3] involved with the WIPP PICs program and the Nuclear Energy Agency Records Knowledge and Memory working group. Competition participants were given digital 3-D Computer-Aided Design models for reference that included the underground storage portion of the site, existing buildings and the 16-square-mile site boundary identified in the 1992 WIPP Land Withdrawal Act [2]. This paper will: - Provide a detailed description of the submitted proposals including graphic analysis of the visualizations, diagrams, technical drawings, jury comments and statements. - Catalogue and identify the consistent themes within all submissions with possible categories including: 1) overall architectural form and language, 2) integration of written language and symbols within architecture, 3) use of technology and robotics, 4) construction methods and materials. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Grid Optimization Competition Challenge 3 Problem Formulation

This report contains the problem formulation for the Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 3. The Grid Optimization Competition is run by a team of researchers from a number of organizations, including the sponsor Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy (ARPA-E), lead organization Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and technical contributors from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Texas A&M University (TAMU), Georgia Institute of Technology (GT), University of Wisconsin (UW), and others. The GO Competition poses challenge problems in the field of power grid management, invites entrants to develop solvers for these problems, invokes the solvers on a set of problem instances using common hardware, ranks the solvers according to their performance, and awards prizes according to the rankings. The overall goal of the GO Competition is to spur innovative research on high impact and computationally challenging problems in power grid management from initial development through commercial deployment. Complete information about the GO Competition can be found online at [2]. The webpage covers previous Challenges, rules, timeline, registration information, data formats, scoring methods, computational platform information, information on supported solvers and languages, sponsor information, frequently asked questions, administrator contact information, publicly available problem instances, computer code for reading and evaluating problem and solution data, a sandbox for testing solvers, and a solver submission interface, results, and publications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 3

Synthetic Input Data and Team Results for the GO Competition Challenge 3 for Events 1 - 4 and the Sandbox, along with problem and format descriptions and code to validate data and solutions, are available here. Data for industry scenarios will not be made public. The Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 3 focused on the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problem. It is part of a continuing effort begun with Challenges 1 and 2, to successfully discover, develop, and test innovative and disruptive software solutions for critical energy challenges and to overcome existing barriers. The broader goal of the of the GO Competition is to accelerate the development of transformational and disruptive methods for solving problems related to the electric power grid and to provide a transparent, fair, and comprehensive evaluation of new solution methods. Challenge 3 used multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. In Event 4, whose submission window was August 31-September 4, 2023, 14 teams solved for the objective values of 669 scenarios (39 scenarios required solutions both with and without line switching being allowed). The 591 synthetic scenarios from 9 network models (3.6 GB) are available here. Ten teams were funded to participate and 7 won prizes totaling $2,400,000. The largest prize ($550,000) went to Mississippi State University. An additional $600,000 was awarded in Event 3 (6/15-16/2023). No prizes were awarded in Events 1 (1/25-27/2023) or 2 (4/13-14/2023). For more information on the competition and challenge see the "GO Competition Challenge 3 Information" resource below.

ACOPF↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interspecific oral rabies vaccine bait competition in the Southeast United States

Here, the United States Department of Agriculture’s National Rabies Management Program (NRMP) has coordinated the use of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) to control the spread of raccoon rabies virus variant west of the Appalachian Mountains since 1997. Working with state and local partners, the NRMP deploys ORV baits containing a rabies vaccine, primarily targeting raccoon populations (Procyon lotor). Bait competition between raccoons and non-target species may limit the effectiveness of ORV programs, but the extent of bait competition remains poorly quantified, particularly in the southeastern United States. We placed placebo ORV baits in bottomland hardwood (n = 637 baits) and upland pine (n = 681 baits) habitats in South Carolina, USA during August-December 2019 and used remote cameras to examine bait competition between raccoons and non-target species. The estimated proportion of bait consumed by raccoons was 18.8 ± 2.1% in bottomland hardwood and 11.6 ± 2.1% in upland pine habitats. Vertebrate competition appeared to have a minimal effect on raccoon uptake as estimated consumption did not exceed 5% for any species or 8% of bait uptake events cumulatively. We estimated that raccoons were the primary consumer of baits in bottomland hardwood, whereas invertebrates were the primary consumer in upland pine (26.7 ± 1.3% of baits). Our results indicate a need to closely consider the effects of invertebrates on bait consumption to minimize their potential impact on ORV bait uptake by target species. Uptake probabilities by raccoons were relatively low but not primarily driven by competition with vertebrates. As such, strategies to increase the specificity of raccoon uptake may be needed to enhance the effectiveness of ORV baiting programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

A window into occupant-driven energy outcomes: Leveraging sub-metering infrastructure to examine psychosocial factors driving long-term outcomes of short-term competition-based energy interventions

Competition-based “energy saving” interventions are increasingly promoted as an effective strategy for reducing energy consumption in buildings with large occupant controlled electrical loads. However, the factors that drive energy savings in such interventions are not well understood, nor are the impacts of short-term competitions on long-term energy performance. A total of 39 8-occupant suites in a freshman residence hall were instrumented with “smart” electric meters, which recorded circuit-level electricity consumption at 15-minute intervals. During a three-week Fall 2014 competition, suites competed to reduce their overall electricity demand and achieved a 6.4% reduction in whole-building demand overall and a 12% reduction during hours of peak demand (from 12:00 to 19:00), despite peak seasonal temperatures and all-time record electricity demand. Analysis incorporating weather-normalized HVAC demand after the competition showed a significant “rebound” for a large portion of the suites (19), however 12 suites made further reductions, and the remainder maintained demand at the competition level. As a result, we compared energy data with self-reported survey data and identified self-efficacy beliefs, pro-environmental behaviors, and sense of affiliation with other residents of the hall as key factors distinguishing the suites with the greatest and most persistent reductions in demand from suites that maintained or increased demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Adaptation limits ecological diversification and promotes ecological tinkering during the competition for substitutable resources

Microbial communities can evade competitive exclusion by diversifying into distinct ecological niches. This spontaneous diversification often occurs amid a backdrop of directional selection on other microbial traits, where competitive exclusion would normally apply. Yet despite their empirical relevance, little is known about how diversification and directional selection combine to determine the ecological and evolutionary dynamics within a community. To address this gap, we introduce a simple, empirically motivated model of eco-evolutionary feedback based on the competition for substitutable resources. Individuals acquire heritable mutations that alter resource uptake rates, either by shifting metabolic effort between resources or by increasing the overall growth rate. While these constitutively beneficial mutations are trivially favored to invade, we show that the accumulated fitness differences can dramatically influence the ecological structure and evolutionary dynamics that emerge within the community. Competition between ecological diversification and ongoing fitness evolution leads to a state of diversification–selection balance, in which the number of extant ecotypes can be pinned below the maximum capacity of the ecosystem, while the ecotype frequencies and genealogies are constantly in flux. Interestingly, we find that fitness differences generate emergent selection pressures to shift metabolic effort toward resources with lower effective competition, even in saturated ecosystems. Here, we argue that similar dynamical features should emerge in a wide range of models with a mixture of directional and diversifying selection.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

What goes on behind closed doors? How college dormitory residents change to save energy during a competition-based energy reduction intervention

Here, the aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of a competition-based intervention combining high resolution electricity feedback, incentives, information, and prompts on college dormitory residents’ energy consumption and participation in demand response (DR) events. We also investigated changes in individual-level pro-environmental behaviors and examined psycho-social correlates of behavior change. Residents of 39 suites in a freshman residence hall competed against one another to reduce energy consumption and win prizes as part of a 3-week competition. Feedback was provided in near real time at the suite-level via an interactive touch-screen kiosk. Participants also completed baseline and followup surveys. Findings have indicated that electricity use among all suites was approximately 6.4% lower during the competition period compared to baseline, a significant reduction. Additionally, participants reported engaging in various pro-environmental behaviors significantly more frequently during the competition relative to baseline. Changes in pro-environmental behavior were associated with changes in level of group identification and perceived social norms. In three weeks, dormitory residents saved 3, 158 kWh of electricity compared to baseline – the equivalent of more than 3, 470 pounds of carbon dioxide emissions. Our findings provide evidence that real-time feedback, combined with incentives, information, and prompts, can motivate on-campus residents to reduce energy consumption. We contribute to a limited body of evidence supporting the effectiveness of dorm energy competitions in motivating college students to save energy. In addition, we identified individual-level behavioral and psycho-social changes made during such an intervention. University residential life planners may also use the results of this research to inform student programming.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA LUNABOTICS ROBOTIC MINING COMPETITION 10TH ANNIVERSARY (2010 â€“ 2019): TAXONOMY AND TECHNOLOGY REVIEW

Space Mining for resources such as water ice, and regolith, which contain many elements in the form of metals, minerals, volatiles and other compounds, is a necessary step for In-Situ Space Resource Utilization (ISRU). One of the primary goals is to extract propellants from the regolith and water ice, such as oxygen and hydrogen which could then be used for in-space transportation. In addition, the space mining system can be used for various construction tasks that can benefit human and robotic exploration as well as scientific investigations based on excavated exposed topography, such as the side walls of trenches. The National Aeronautics & Space Ad-ministration (NASA) Lunabotics Robotic Mining Competition (RMC) is a university-level competition designed to engage and retain students in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM). NASA has directly benefited from the competition by encouraging the development of innovative lunar excavation concepts from universities which has resulted in clever ideas and solutions which could be applied to an actual lunar excavation device or payload. The challenge is for students to design and build a remote controlled or autonomous excavator, called a lunabot, that can collect and deposit a minimum of 10 kilograms of lunar simulant within 15 minutes. In recent years the goal has been changed to excavate a minimum of 1 kg of simulated icy regolith which is found under an over-burden of regolith simulant. The complexities of the challenge include the abrasive characteristics of the lunar simulant, the weight and size limitations of the lunabot, and the ability to control the lunabot from a remote control center. This paper will present the results of the 10 Lunabotics Robotic Mining Competitions held between May 2010 and May 2019. Each year over 50 university teams have attended, resulting in over 500 lunabot designs and subsequent prototypes. Over 5,000 university students have been part of the competition on-site at KSC. More students and the public were en-gaged via internet broadcasting and social net-working media. The various designs will be cataloged and categorized to provide information to future Lunabotics mining robot designers and competitors. It is also expected to be of value for actual future space missions, as knowledge is gained from testing many innovative prototypes in simulated lunar regoith. A taxonomy of robotic excavator designs will be presented.

Competition↗

DOE OSTI2014

Rab3A is a new interacting partner of synaptotagmin I and may modulate synaptic membrane fusion through a competitive mechanism

Highlights: • Rab3A has been found to be a novel interacting protein of synaptotagmin I. • Rab3A binds to synaptotagmin I in a Ca{sup 2+}-independent manner. • KKKK motif in C2B domain of synaptotagmin I is a key site for Rab3A binding. • Rab3A competitively inhibits the binding of C2B in synaptotagmin I to syntaxin 1B. • Rab3A may regulate synaptic membrane fusion and exocytosis in a competitive manner. - Abstract: Rab3 and synaptotagmin have been reported to be the key proteins that have opposite actions but cooperatively play critical regulatory roles in selecting and limiting the number of vesicles released at central synapses. However, the exact mechanism has not been fully understood. In this study, Rab3A and synaptotagmin I, the most abundant isoforms of Rab3 and synaptotagmin, respectively, in brain were for the first time demonstrated to directly interact with each other in a Ca{sup 2+}-independent manner, and the KKKK motif in the C2B domain of synaptotagmin I was a key site for the Rab3A binding, which was further confirmed by the competitive inhibition of inositol hexakisphosphate. Further studies demonstrated that Rab3A competitively affected the synaptotagmin I interaction with syntaxin 1B that was involved in membrane fusion during the synaptic vesicle exocytosis. These data indicate that Rab3A is a new synaptotagmin I interacting partner and may participate in the regulation of synaptic membrane fusion and thus the vesicle exocytosis by competitively modulating the interaction of synaptotagmin with syntaxin of the t-SNARE complex in presynaptic membranes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Leaf Trait Plasticity Alters Competitive Ability and Functioning of Simulated Tropical Trees in Response to Elevated Carbon Dioxide

The response of tropical ecosystems to elevated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) remains a critical uncertainty in projections of future climate. Here, we investigate how leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 alters projections of tropical forest competitive dynamics and functioning. We use vegetation demographic model simulations to quantify how plasticity in leaf mass per area and leaf carbon to nitrogen ratio alter the responses of carbon uptake, evapotranspiration, and competitive ability to a doubling of CO 2 in a tropical forest. Observationally constrained leaf trait plasticity in response to CO 2 fertilization reduces the degree to which tropical tree carbon uptake is affected by a doubling of CO 2 (up to -14.7% as compared to a case with no plasticity; 95% confidence interval [CI95%] -14.4 to -15.0). It also diminishes evapotranspiration (up to -7.0%, CI95% -6.4 to -7.7), and lowers competitive ability in comparison to a tree with no plasticity. Consideration of leaf trait plasticity to elevated CO 2 lowers tropical ecosystem carbon uptake and evapotranspirative cooling in the absence of changes in plant-type abundance. However, “plastic” responses to high CO 2 which maintain higher levels of plant productivity, many of which fall outside of the observed range of response, are potentially more competitively advantageous, thus, including changes in plant type abundance may mitigate these decreases in ecosystem functioning. Models that explicitly represent competition between plants with alternative leaf trait plasticity in response to elevated CO 2 are needed to capture these influences on tropical forest functioning and large-scale climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear bubble competition of the multimode ablative Rayleigh–Taylor instability and applications to inertial confinement fusion

The self-similar nonlinear evolution of the multimode ablative Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) and the ablation-generated vorticity effect are studied for a range of initial conditions. We show that, unlike classical RTI, the nonlinear multimode bubble-front evolution remains in the bubble competition regime due to ablation-generated vorticity, which accelerates the bubbles, thereby preventing a transition into the bubble-merger regime. We develop an analytical bubble competition model to describe the linear and nonlinear stages of ablative RTI. Here, we show that vorticity inside the multimode bubbles is most significant at small scales with large initial perturbation. Since these small scales persist in the bubble competition regime, the self-similar growth coefficient ab can be enhanced by up to 30% relative to ablative bubble competition without vorticity effects. We use the ablative bubble competition model to explain the hydrodynamic stability boundary observed in OMEGA low-adiabat implosion experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Competition response of cloud supersaturation explains diminished Twomey effect for smoky aerosol in the tropical Atlantic

The Twomey effect brightens clouds by increasing aerosol concentrations, which activates more droplets and decreases cloud supersaturation in response to more competition for water vapor. To quantify this competition response, we used marine low cloud observations in clean and smoky conditions at Ascension Island in the tropical South Atlantic during the Layered Aerosol Smoke Interactions with Cloud (LASIC) campaign. These observations show similar increases in droplet number for increased accumulation-mode particles from surface-based and satellite cloud retrievals, demonstrating the importance of below-cloud aerosol measurements for retrieving aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) in clean and smoky aerosol conditions. Four methods for estimating cloud supersaturation from aerosol–cloud measurements were compared, with cloud scene-based and parcel-based methods showing sufficient variability for a strong dependence on both aerosol accumulation number concentration and cloud-base updraft velocities. Decomposing aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth shows the calculated competition response accounts for dampening the activation response by 12 to 35%, explaining the diminished Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations observed for smoky conditions at LASIC and previously around the world. This result was consistent for independent supersaturation retrievals by cloud scene-based droplet number and cloud condensation nuclei and parcel-based multimode size-resolving Lagrangian methods. Translating aerosol effects to local radiative forcing with clean conditions as a proxy for preindustrial and smoky conditions for present-day showed that the competition response reduces cooling from the Twomey radiative forcing by 12 to 35%, providing an essential process-specific constraint for improving the representation of aerosol competition in climate model simulation of indirect aerosol forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗