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Evaluation of Seismic Artificial Intelligence with Uncertainty
Artificial intelligence has transformed the seismic community with deep learning models (DLMs) that are trained to complete specific tasks within workflows. However, there is still a lack of robust evaluation frameworks for evaluating and comparing DLMs. Here, we address this gap by designing an evaluation framework that jointly incorporates two crucial aspects: performance uncertainty and learning efficiency. To target these aspects, we meticulously construct the training, validation, and test splits using a clustering method tailored to seismic data and enact an expansive training design to segregate performance uncertainty arising from stochastic training processes and random data sampling. The framework’s ability to guard against misleading declarations of model superiority is demonstrated through the evaluation of PhaseNet (Zhu and Beroza, 2018), a popular seismic phase picking DLM, under three training approaches. Our framework helps practitioners choose the best model for their problem and set performance expectations by explicitly analyzing model performance with uncertainty at varying budgets of training data.
R-matrix Resolved Resonance Region Evaluation of 140,142 Ce
Oak Ridge National Laboratory completed the resolved resonance region (RRR) evaluation of the two most abundant cerium isotopes, 140 Ce (88.45%) and 142 Ce (11.11%), as requested by the US Nuclear Criticality Safety Program. These evaluations are based on recent high-resolution transmission and capture measurements performed on nat Ce and highly enriched 142 Ce samples at the JRC-Geel Linear Accelerator facility, as well as measured thermal constants available from the EXFOR database. Starting from the resonance parameters of the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library followed by a preliminary R-matrix analysis, an updated set of resonance parameters and corresponding covariance information were derived by fitting these measured data using the Reich–Moore approximation of the R -matrix theory, as implemented in the SAMMY code system. The 140 Ce RRR upper energy limit was kept at 200 keV, whereas the 142 Ce resonance region was extended from 13 to 26 keV. Updated statistical properties were obtained for the new evaluations and compared to those derived from the ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data library. The new evaluation work improved some of the discrepancies found in previous work, such as the capture resonance integral and stellar Maxwellian-averaged cross sections. These integral quantities were mainly derived from the fit of the latest measured data, especially the neutron capture yield data for 142 Ce isotope.
Evaluation of RANS vs. LES simulation of fluid flow through 3 × 3 rod bundle with a simple spacer grid as a precursor to coupled fluid–structure interaction simulations
The research literature on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) of coolant flow through rod bundles with spacer-grids and mixing vanes is replete, ranging from high fidelity Large Eddy Simulation (LES)/Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) simulations to Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) modeled studies. The mixing of flow between subchannels and the pressure drop through the bundle are fundamental quantities useful for comparing and evaluating CFD methods. Less commonly observed and compared are the forces exerted onto the structure by the fluid. The present study seeks to evaluate the use of RANS simulations for predicting the structural response to fluid flow. Wall resolved RANS simulations are benchmarked against LES simulations of fluid flow at a Reynolds number of 15,000 through a 3 × 3 fuel rod bundle with a simple spacer grid. Velocity line-plots are compared showing good agreement between RANS and LES results, ascertaining that the former is capable of capturing the essential time-averaged velocity profile. Additionally, the distribution of forces on the spacer grid and fuel rods are collected as a function of time and space. The RANS methods are evaluated using the frequency and magnitude of the fluctuating forces on various portions of the structure as compared to LES. In conclusion, the power spectral density evaluation of the models reveal underprediction of force amplitude on the rod walls by RANS and also discrepancy in the prediction of high frequency spectra, especially in the immediate vicinity of spacer-grid structure, which may be attributed to the lack of random turbulence fluctuation or insufficient modeling of small-scale eddies in RANS simulation.
Selection of Sampling and Surrogate Modeling Methods for State-Point Evaluations of an AGN-201M Reactor
Nuclear reactor digital twins (DTs) have been proposed for use as a safeguards technology to efficiently monitor new and novel reactors as they come online. A safeguards DT needs to be capable of detecting misuse and diversion as they occur, requiring physics models to be accurate and efficient. Mathematical surrogate models are capable of achieving the necessary efficiency and can largely maintain the accuracy of higher-order models given a quality training sample. The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) code framework is specifically equipped to generate training samples and create surrogate models using full-order reactor physics models. Utilizing an operational AGN-201M reactor’s specifications, two surrogate types were trained on samples of variable size, and using Cartesian products, Latin hypercube sampling, and quadrature sampling, each was compared and evaluated on accuracy when compared to a full-order Monte Carlo model. Both surrogate types were able to capture reactivity changes within 0.05 $ of the Monte Carlo model while reducing the computation costs by eight orders of magnitude.
Transformation rate maps of dissolved organic carbon in the contiguous US
Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a vital role in regional and global carbon cycles. However, the processes of DOC conversion from soil organic carbon (SOC) and leaching into rivers are insufficiently understood, inconsistently represented, and poorly parameterized, particularly in land surface and Earth system models. As a first attempt to fill this gap, we propose a generic formula that directly connects SOC concentration with DOC concentration in headwater streams, where a single parameter, the transformation rate from SOC in the soil to DOC leaching flux (P r ), accounts for the overall processes governing SOC conversion to DOC and leaching from soils (along with runoff) into headwater streams. We then derive high-resolution P r maps over the contiguous US (CONUS) using SOC data from two different sources: the Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2 (HWSD) and SoilGrids 2.0. Both maps are developed following the same five major steps: (1) selecting independent catchments where observed riverine DOC data are available with reasonable quality; (2) estimating catchment-average SOC for the independent catchments; (3) estimating the P r values for these catchments based on the generic formula and catchment-average SOC; (4) developing a predictive model of P r with machine learning (ML) techniques and catchment-scale climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes; and (5) deriving a national map of P r based on the ML model. For evaluation, we compare the DOC concentration derived using the P r map and the observed DOC concentration values at evaluation catchments. The resulting mean absolute scaled error and coefficient of determination are 0.73 and 0.47 for the HWSD-based model and 0.58 and 0.72 for the SoilGrids-based model, respectively, suggesting the effectiveness of the overall methodology. Efforts to constrain uncertainty and evaluate sensitivity of P r to different factors are discussed. To illustrate the use of such maps, we derive a riverine DOC concentration reanalysis dataset over CONUS. The two P r maps, robustly derived and empirically validated, lay a critical cornerstone for better simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle in land surface and Earth system models. Our findings not only set a foundation for improving our predictive understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle at the regional and global scales, but also hold promises for informing policy decisions related to decarbonization and climate change mitigation. The data presented in this study are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14563816 (Li et al., 2024).
Mesoscale Convective Systems in a Superparameterized E3SM Simulation at High Resolution
Accurately representing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is crucial to simulating the energy and water cycles in global climate models. Using a novel MCS identification and tracking algorithm applied to observations and model simulations, we evaluate how well the Energy Exascale Earth System Model simulates MCSs over the central US. Simulations performed by E3SM at 25 km grid spacing with (SP-E3SM) and without (E3SM) superparameterization are compared and evaluated against observations using multiple metrics highlighting important MCS characteristics. Compared to E3SM, SP-E3SM better simulates MCS number and MCS precipitation amount, diurnal cycle, propagation, and the probability distribution of precipitation rate in both spring and summer. The improvement from SP is partly contributed by improvement in simulating the large-scale environments, featuring enhanced atmospheric low-level moisture and larger moisture transport to the central US relative to E3SM. However, SP-E3SM still underestimates MCS precipitation amount, particularly in summer. This underestimation is closely related to the negative bias in MCS precipitation intensity, although the drier environments simulated during summer also contributes to underestimation of MCS frequency. Without SP, the larger bias in MCS precipitation amount is closely related to the negative bias in MCS frequency, while the substantial dry bias in the large-scale environments also contributes to underestimation of MCS intensity. Our results suggest that SP improves MCS simulation by improving modeling of the large-scale environments and convection initiation, which are both major limiting factors in E3SM even at 25 km grid spacing where deep convection is represented by a cumulus parameterization.
Direct Conversion of Delignified Biomass into Non-Volatile Products Using Thermophilic Bacteria
Butyric acid (BA) can be used as a platform intermediate for diesel and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) as well as a precursor for diverse commodity chemicals for the production of polymers, fibers, solvents, and preservatives. This work presents a co-culture-based bioprocess for the production of BA from corn stover by two thermophilic bacteria, Clostridium thermocellum, a well-known efficient degrader of insoluble and oligomeric cellulosic substrates, and Clostridium thermobutyricum, a highly efficient BA producer from monomeric sugars. First, we tested the capability of C. thermocellum to deconstruct three different biomass streams from the NREL pilot plant pretreatment process -raw, deacetylated, and deacetylated and mechanically refined corn stover (DMR)-, and up to 82% solids deconstruction and 91% carbohydrate utilization were obtained when using DMR solids. Then, the sugar utilization and by-product formation capabilities on various substrates by C. thermobutyricum were compared to evaluate its potential as a co-culture partner for C. thermocellum. Model carbon sources -glucose and xylose- were compared to a mixture of substrates present in soluble DMR hydrolysate streams, and the highest cell density as well as the maximum BA titer (8.3 g/L) were observed on DMR hydrolysate. Finally, clostridial co-cultivations on DMR solids were performed to investigate the inoculation time for both organisms that enhances BA production; while C. thermocellum was always inoculated at the beginning of the cultivation, C. thermobutyricum was inoculated at 0, 36, or 72h. It was found that BA production begins immediately upon inoculation of C. thermobutyricum regardless of the inoculation time. However, higher solids deconstruction and carbohydrate utilization results (83.7 and 95.6%, respectively) were obtained when both organisms were inoculated at the beginning of the fermentation. Under those conditions, up to 2.6 g/L of BA were obtained from DMR solids after 120h of cultivation. This work provides relevant information for the sustainable production of BA using thermophilic bacteria.
Benchmarking of ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross sections for LWR ex-core transport applications
ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross section data is benchmarked on a simple Monte-Carlo model representative of the ex-core geometry of a PWR used for reactor vessel neutron fluence calculations. The benchmarking indicates that the ENDF/B-VIII.0 results show large differences as compared to previous evaluations, which have been extensively compared to measured data. This exercise suggests that ENDF/B-VIII.0 nuclear data is not suitable for ex-core LWR radiation transport applications. Evaluators are aware of the problems with the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation of iron and work is underway to improve the evaluations for an upcoming release.
Quantitative methods and modeling to assess COVID–19–interrupted in vivo pharmacokinetic bioequivalence studies with two reference batches
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has presented unprecedented challenges to the generic drug development, including interruptions in bioequivalence (BE) studies. Per guidance published by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during the COVID-19 public health emergency, any protocol changes or alternative statistical analysis plan for COVID-19-interrupted BE study should be accompanied with adequate justifications and not lead to biased equivalence determination. In this study, we used a modeling and simulation approach to assess the potential impact of study outcomes when two different batches of a Reference Standard (RS) were to be used in an in vivo pharmacokinetic BE study due to the RS expiration during the COVID-19 pandemic. Simulations were performed with hypothetical drugs under two scenarios: (1) uninterrupted study using a single batch of an RS, and (2) interrupted study using two batches of an RS. The acceptability of BE outcomes was evaluated by comparing the results obtained from interrupted studies with those from uninterrupted studies. The simulation results demonstrated that using a conventional statistical approach to evaluate BE for COVID-19-interrupted studies may be acceptable based on the pooled data from two batches. An alternative statistical method which includes a “batch” effect to the mixed effects model may be used when a significant “batch” effect was found in interrupted four-way crossover studies. However, such alternative method is not applicable for interrupted two-way crossover studies. Overall, the simulated scenarios are only for demonstration purpose, the acceptability of BE outcomes for the COVID19-interrupted studies could be case-specific.
Long-Term Statistical Process Monitoring of an Ultrafiltration Water Treatment Process
As water treatment technology has improved, the amount of available process data has substantially increased, making real-time, data-driven fault detection a reality. One shortcoming of the fault detection literature is that methods are usually evaluated by comparing their performance on hand-picked, short-term case studies, which yields no insight into long-term performance. In this work, we first evaluate multiple statistical and machine learning approaches for detrending process data. Then, we evaluate the performance of a PCA-based fault detection approach, applied to the detrended data, to monitor influent water quality, filtrate quality, and membrane fouling of an ultrafiltration membrane system for indirect potable reuse. Based on two short case studies, the adaptive lasso detrending method is selected, and the performance of the multivariate approach is evaluated over more than a year. The method is tested for different sets of three critical tuning parameters, and we find that for long-term, autonomous monitoring to be successful, these parameters should be carefully evaluated. However, in comparison with industry standards of simpler, univariate monitoring or daily pressure decay tests, multivariate monitoring produces substantial benefits in long-term testing.
Hierarchical microstructural parameters governing electrical and thermal conductivity in Al-based eutectic systems
Enhancing conductivity properties of aluminum alloys can drive superior performance and efficiency across diverse engineering applications, yet currently commercially available Al casting alloys are severely limited in electrical and thermal conductivity. There is a general understanding that the presence of any defects and alloying elements within Al will inevitably lower conductivity properties. However, there is a lack of comparative studies evaluating the intricate interplay between the microstructural parameters and conductivity properties across cast Al-based eutectic systems. Therefore, this study bridges this gap by conducting a comparative study across hypoeutectic alloy compositions consisting of 50 % primary Al and 50 % eutectic region to elucidate the key parameters that dictate conductivity properties. This research contributes to advancing the understanding of alloy design opportunities for high conductivity, high strength castable Al alloys.
Fiber orientation effects on ultra-high performance concrete formed by 3D printing
Despite the growing interest in 3D concrete printing, its current progress is limited by reinforcing methods. Inclusion of steel fibers is a potential reinforcing solution; however, the effect of printing process on orientation of the fibers is still unknown. This study aims to quantitatively investigate the orientation distribution of steel fibers in 3D printed ultra-high performance concrete. The effects of extrusion nozzle size, Cartesian print speed, and fiber volume fraction on the orientation of fibers were evaluated using digital image analysis. The consequent effects of the fiber orientation on the mechanical properties of the 3D-printed specimens were also determined. The results were compared with those of the conventionally mold-cast specimens. The results revealed that the smaller nozzle size and higher fiber volume fraction significantly enhanced the fiber alignment parallel to the printing direction. This preferential fiber alignment led to superior mechanical performance of the printed specimens to the mold-cast specimens.
Measurement of the energy-differential 35 Cl( n, p 0 ) 35 S cross section via the ratio with 6 Li( n, α ) 3 H
Knowledge of the neutron-induced 35 Cl (n, x) cross sections is vital to the design and certification of molten chloride fast reactors (MCFRs) since the 35 Cl (n, p 0 ) 35 S reaction is believed to be a significant reactor poison. However, recently published measurements are inconsistent with each other and with evaluation. Here, the goal of this work is to measure the 35 Cl (n, p 0 ) reaction cross section using a technique that is different from recent measurements. The experiment was conducted at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's (LBNL) 88-Inch Cyclotron using thick target deuteron breakup from a 14 MeV deuteron beam. Energy-differential 35 Cl (n, p 0 ) 35 S cross sections were obtained via ratio with the 6 Li (n, a) 3 H reaction using an active target experiment with a Cs 2 LiYCl 6 (CLYC) scintillator. The 35 Cl (n, p 0 ) reaction cross section was measured from 2.02 to 7.46 MeV. The results are consistent with Kuvin et al., confirming a roughly 50% reduction in magnitude relative to the ENDF/B-VIII.0 evaluation. These data provide new insight into the role of natural Cl as an MCFR poison. The reduction of the 35 Cl (n, p 0 ) reaction cross section compared to evaluation suggests that MCFR criticality is less sensitive to Cl enrichment. This may in turn reduce building and operating costs since isotope separation may not be needed.
Selenium interaction with iron minerals: Quantitative comparison of sorption and coprecipitation impacts on mobility
Given the significance of selenium (Se) as a micronutrient, the radioactive nature of some of its isotopes, and its affinity to iron (Fe) minerals, extensive research has been conducted on the sorption mechanisms between Se and these minerals. Here, in this study, we employ sorption data sourced from the L-SCIE database and coprecipitation data from available literature to achieve the following objectives: i) establish coherence between adsorption and coprecipitation processes, ii) quantitatively evaluate the importance of these processes in nuclear waste repository science, and iii) propose a forward-looking approach for integrating coprecipitation into reactive transport models. Our findings indicate that a correlation between Se adsorption and coprecipitation can be established using the λ formalism. The comparable log(λ Se(IV) /λ Se(VI) ) ratios derived from adsorption and coprecipitation experiments suggest that these processes can be quantitatively compared and evaluated using our numerical approach. Across all iron oxide phases examined, coprecipitation leads to significantly greater immobilization of Se compared to adsorption. Specifically, for hydrous ferric oxide, hematite, and goethite, coprecipitation is predicted to result in 100–1000 times more Se immobilization compared to adsorption, irrespective of the Se oxidation state (Se(IV) or Se(VI)); notably stronger immobilization potential via coprecipitation was observed for magnetite. The modeling approach and quantitative analysis presented herein clearly highlight the importance of including coprecipitation processes when simulating Se (and other elements) transport, particularly under conditions where mineral compositions are transient or evolving with time. Neglecting coprecipitation in models is likely to lead to significant overestimates of migration.
SANS quantification of bound water in water-soluble polymers across multiple concentration regimes
Contrast-variation small-angle neutron scattering (CV-SANS) is a widely used technique for quantifying hydration water in soft matter systems, but it is predominantly applied in the dilute regime or for systems with a well-defined structure factor. Here, CV-SANS was used to quantify the number of hydration water molecules associating with three water-soluble polymers with different critical solution temperatures and types of water–solute interactions in dilute, semidilute, and concentrated solution through the exploration of novel methods of data fitting and analysis. Multiple SANS fitting workflows with varying levels of model assumptions were evaluated and compared to give insight into SANS model selection. These fitting pathways ranged from general, model-free algorithms to more standard form and structure factor fitting. In addition, Monte Carlo bootstrapping was evaluated as a method to estimate parameter uncertainty through simulation of technical replicates. The most robust fitting workflow for dilute solutions was found to be form factor fitting without CV-SANS ( i.e. polymer in 100% D 2 O). For semidilute and concentrated solutions, while the model-free approach can be mathematically defined for CV-SANS data, the addition of a structure factor imposes physical constraints on the optimization problem, suggesting that the optimal fitting pathway should include appropriate form and structure factor models. The measured hydration numbers were consistent with the number of tightly bound water molecules associated with each monomer unit, and the concentration dependence of the hydration number was largely governed by the chemistry-specific interactions between water and polymer. Polymers with weaker water–polymer interactions ( i.e. those with fewer hydration water molecules) were found to have more bound water at higher concentrations than those with stronger water–polymer interactions due to the increase in the number of forced water–polymer contacts in the concentrated system. This SANS-based method to count hydration water molecules can be applied to polymers in any concentration regime, which will lead to improved understanding of water–polymer interactions and their impact on materials design.
Machine-Learning-Based Rotating Detonation Engine Diagnostics: Evaluation for Application in Experimental Facilities
Real-time monitoring of combustion behavior is a crucial step toward actively controlled rotating detonation engine (RDE) operation in laboratory and industrial environments. Various machine learning methods have been developed to advance diagnostic efficiencies from conventional postprocessing efforts to real-time methods. Here this work evaluates and compares conventional techniques alongside convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures trained in previous studies, including image classification, object detection, and time series classification, according to metrics affecting diagnostic feasibility, external applicability, and performance. Real-time, capable diagnostics are deployed and evaluated using an altered experimental setup. Image-based CNNs are applied to externally provided images to approximate dataset restrictions. Image classification using high-speed chemiluminescence images and time series classification using high-speed flame ionization and pressure measurements achieve classification speeds enabling real-time diagnostic capabilities, averaging laboratory-deployed diagnostic feedback rates of 4–5 Hz. Object detection achieves the most refined resolution of 20 μs in postprocessing. Image and time series classification require the additional correlation of sensor data, extending their time-step resolutions to 80 ms. Comparisons show that no single diagnostic approach outperforms its competitors across all metrics. This finding justifies the need for a machine learning portfolio containing a host of networks to address specific needs throughout the RDE research community.
Object manipulation in immersive virtual environments: Hand Motion tracking technology and snap-to-fit function
There have been recent efforts to use virtual reality and manipulation to train construction workers and inspection. However, there is a lack of research efforts comparing and evaluating virtual manipulation hardware for construction tasks. Moreover, the current practice of virtual manipulation has limited functionality to guide users with the placement of objects in virtual environments. To address these issues, this paper presents 1) a detailed case study that compares three types of manipulation hardware (image-based, infrared-based, and magnetic-based) for construction applications and 2) a snap-to-fit method that improves the VM through solving limitations of the advanced virtual reality interaction metaphors. The latter enhances the placement process for manipulation by comparing two models (e.g., scan and BIM models) for proper placement in assembly scenarios. Finally, the case study results show that magnetic-based systems outperform others in construction scenarios. Lastly, the snap-to-fit function was validated in terms of accuracy and time performance.