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At least 109 records · Page 6

On the Probabilistic Analysis of Neural Networks

Neural networks are powerful tools for automated decision-making,seeing increased application in safety-critical domains, such as autonomous driving. Due to their black-box nature and large scale,reasoning about their behavior is challenging. Statistical analysis is often used to infer probabilistic properties of a network, such as its robustness to noise and inaccurate inputs. While scalable, statistical methods can only provide probabilistic guarantees on the quality of their results and may underestimate the impact of low probability inputs leading to undesired behavior of the network.We investigate here the use of symbolic analysis and constraint solution space quantification to precisely quantify probabilistic properties in neural networks. We demonstrate the potential of the proposed technique in a case study involving the analysis of ACAS-Xu, a collision avoidance system for unmanned aircraft control.

neural nets↗

Variance reduction in Monte Carlo analysis of rarefied gas diffusion

The present analysis uses the Monte Carlo method to solve the problem of rarefied diffusion between parallel walls. The diffusing molecules are evaporated or emitted from one of two parallel walls and diffused through another molecular species. The analysis treats the diffusing molecule as undergoing a Markov random walk and the local macroscopic properties are found as the expected value of the random variable, the random walk payoff. By biasing the transition probabilities and changing the collision payoffs the expected Markov walk payoff is retained but its variance is reduced so that the M. C. result has a much smaller error.

Perlmutter, M.↗

Electronic excitation and quenching of atoms at insulator surfaces

A trajectory-based semiclassical method is used to study electronically inelastic collisions of gas atoms with insulator surfaces. The method provides for quantum-mechanical treatment of the internal electronic dynamics of a localized region involving the gas/surface collision, and a classical treatment of all the nuclear degrees of freedom (self-consistently and in terms of stochastic trajectories), and includes accurate simulation of the bath-temperature effects. The method is easy to implement and has a generality that holds promise for many practical applications. The problem of electronically inelastic dynamics is solved by computing a set of stochastic trajectories that on thermal averaging directly provide electronic transition probabilities at a given temperature. The theory is illustrated by a simple model of a two-state gas/surface interaction.

Swaminathan, P. K.↗

Theoretical and material studies of thin-film electroluminescent devices

Thin-film electroluminescent (TFEL) devices are studied for a possible means of achieving a high resolution, light weight, compact video display panel for computer terminals or television screens. The performance of TFEL devices depends upon the probability of an electron impact exciting a luminescent center which in turn depends upon the density of centers present in the semiconductor layer, the possibility of an electron achieving the impact excitation threshold energy, and the collision cross section itself. Efficiency of such a device is presently very poor. It can best be improved by increasing the number of hot electrons capable of impact exciting a center. Hot electron distributions and a method for increasing the efficiency and brightness of TFEL devices (with the additional advantage of low voltage direct current operation) are investigated.

Summers, C. J.↗

The Effect of the Spin-Forbidden Co((sup 1) Sigma plus) plus O((sup 3) P) Yields CO2 (1 Sigma (sub G) plus) Recombination Reaction on Afterbody Heating of Mars Entry Vehicles

Vibrationally excited CO2, formed by two-body recombination from CO((sup 1) sigma plus) and O((sup 3) P) in the wake behind spacecraft entering the Martian atmosphere reaction, is potentially responsible for the higher than anticipated radiative heating of the backshell, compared to pre-flight predictions. This process involves a spin-forbidden transition of the transient triplet CO2 molecule to the longer-lived singlet. To accurately predict the singlet-triplet transition probability and estimate the thermal rate coefficient of the recombination reaction, ab initio methods were used to compute the first singlet and three lowest triplet CO2 potential energy surfaces and the spin-orbit coupling matrix elements between these states. Analytical fits to these four potential energy surfaces were generated for surface hopping trajectory calculations, using Tully's fewest switches surface hopping algorithm. Preliminary results for the trajectory calculations are presented. The calculated probability of a CO((sup 1) sigma plus) and O((sup 3) P) collision leading to singlet CO2 formation is on the order of 10 (sup -4). The predicted flowfield conditions for various Mars entry scenarios predict temperatures in the range of 1000 degrees Kelvin - 4000 degrees Kelvin and pressures in the range of 300-2500 pascals at the shoulder and in the wake, which is consistent with a heavy-particle collision frequency of 10 (sup 6) to 10 (sup 7) per second. Owing to this low collision frequency, it is likely that CO((sup 1) sigma plus) molecules formed by this mechanism will mostly be frozen in a highly nonequilibrium rovibrational energy state until they relax by photoemission.

CO2 recombination↗

Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty

While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.

PROBABILITY↗

CA Risk Assessment Approaches

Current single-Pc approach work well when subtended by appropriate hypothesis-testing framework. Reframing construct in terms of miss distance distribution would confer certain advantages such as reducing to same import as Pc, but still convey some additional information. Methods to incorporate known uncertainties in covariances and HBR should be pursued that can also be framed in terms of miss distance distribution. We present Plausibilistic II and Possibilistic constructs, to determine their adequacy and viable recommendation.

Conjunction↗

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions

A document discusses sequential probability ratio tests that explicitly allow decision-makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models the null hypotheses that the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming, highly elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗

Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions Based on a Bank of Norm-Inequality-Constrained Epoch-State Filters

Sequential probability ratio tests explicitly allow decision makers to incorporate false alarm and missed detection risks, and are potentially less sensitive to modeling errors than a procedure that relies solely on a probability of collision threshold. Recent work on constrained Kalman filtering has suggested an approach to formulating such a test for collision avoidance maneuver decisions: a filter bank with two norm-inequality-constrained epoch-state extended Kalman filters. One filter models 1he null hypothesis 1ha1 the miss distance is inside the combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one filter models the alternative hypothesis. The epoch-state filter developed for this method explicitly accounts for any process noise present in the system. The method appears to work well using a realistic example based on an upcoming highly-elliptical orbit formation flying mission.

Carpenter, J. R.↗

Shuttle glow emissions due to radiative relaxation of highly vibrationally excited NO molecules produced by surface reflection

A new mechanism is proposed for the Space Shuttle glow, which is due to the radiative relaxation of ambient nitric-oxide molecules that are excited to very high vibrational levels by collisions with the Shuttle surface. Many of the particles colliding with the Shuttle surface at a very high speed (about 8 km/sec) would bounce off, exciting vibrational and rotational motions of molecules up to the level of vibrational quantum number v not greater than 35. Radiative transfer from these high levels should cause emissions in the spectrum range from infrared (IR) to visible red depending upon the transition paths. A perturbation method is used to calculate the transition probability and the emission intensity for the transitions of Delta-v not greater than 4. The result indicates that the Delta-v not greater than 4 transitions from high vibrational levels dominates the other transitions; the Delta-v = 4 transitions generally occur at the IR range.

Shimazaki, T.↗

Remediating Non-Positive Definite State Covariances for Collision Probability Estimation

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team estimates the probability of collision (Pc) for a set of Earth-orbiting satellites. The Pc estimation software processes satellite position+velocity states and their associated covariance matri-ces. On occasion, the software encounters non-positive definite (NPD) state co-variances, which can adversely affect or prevent the Pc estimation process. Inter-polation inaccuracies appear to account for the majority of such covariances, alt-hough other mechanisms contribute also. This paper investigates the origin of NPD state covariance matrices, three different methods for remediating these co-variances when and if necessary, and the associated effects on the Pc estimation process.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

Risk assessment methodologies for target fragments produced in high-energy nucleon reactions

Collisions of energetic protons with target nuclei yield nuclear products of large linear energy transfer, and it is usually assumed that the energy of the heavy products is absorbed locally with a quality factor of 20. Past methods of risk assessment have relied on the Bertini (1969) model to evaluate the nuclear reaction products. If the Q(F) of 20 is correct, then a significant underestimate of biological risk from the nuclear products could result from the use of Bertini's model. On the other hand, a Q(F) of 20 is probably too large for some of the lighter fragments, leaving prior risk estimates as possibly correct or even conservative. This issue is discussed here in the context of the recently proposed nuclear data set of Wilson et al. (1989).

Shinn, J. L.↗

Impact conditions required for formation of melt by jetting in silicates

It is demonstrated that the process of jetting which occurs when particles collide at oblique angles may produce melt at much lower velocities than are required for melt production in head-on collisions. The minimum velocities of impact required for jetting in aluminum, bronzitite, dunite, and quartz are calculated by the method of shock polars. The analysis, which depends on stated assumptions about attained pressures and the occurrence of jetting, uses shock-velocity particle-velocity equations of state with three shock regimes. The treatment indicates that jetting should arise in bronzitite, dunite, and quartz at relative velocities as low as 1-2 km/sec. At such velocities material which passes near the stagnation point in the jet-forming region is subjected to sufficiently high pressures so that it is probably melted.

Kieffer, S. W.↗

Decision Support Tool for Risk Assessment & Maneuver Planning in Collision Avoidance

As the quantity of orbital debris continues to grow, so too does the rate of conjunction messages that suggest possible collisions between high value payloads and debris. The abundance of these conjunction messages, and eventual misses, has led to a culture of ignored alerts, and an increase in satellite operation costs as a result of the frequent need to plan resources for maneuver planning and execution. The loss of “trust” in conjunction alerts is due to the poorly characterized evolution in probability of collision (Pc) as time approaches the time of closest approach (TCA) between two objects, as well as the interpretation of Pc in the context of maneuver planning. To address these problems, and in collaboration with the NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) program, the Industrial Sciences Group has developed a novel Maneuver Decision Support System (MDSS) to assist satellite operations in conjunction assessment and Maneuver planning. It provides a meaningful and intuitive Urgency metric for actionable maneuver decisions, based on the physical dynamics of conjunctions. It is based on a forecast of the evolution of Pc over time and represents an advance over current methods that are in use for satellite conjunction monitoring and planning. The result is to give satellite operators a validated decision support systems to plan for maneuver execution or mitigation or monitoring up to 3 days before TCA.

Decision Support Tool↗

Early Information Parameter-Set Analysis for Satellite Close Approaches using Machine Learning

Understanding orbital mechanics is essential in space flight and navigation applications, and leveraging modern force models for flight path projection remains an important aspect in space mission design and operation. However, force models do not capture all the dynamics or perturbations in the space environment and thus are subject to errors in predicting the state vectors. The further out the predicted miss distance between spacecraft is from the time of closest approach (TCA), the larger the propagated errors in the predicted miss distance at TCA is. The dependency on these force models for spacecraft flight state prediction calls for a more reliable method that can quantify, or even reduce, these propagated errors. With recent advances in the field artificial intelligence, specifically in machine and deep learning algorithms, a model that implements these approaches can improve on the modern force model approach. The goal for this work is to provide an early-information decision-making threshold, in order to prioritize risk assessment implementation, given the ongoing increase of space objects. In analyzing the relationship of several parameters from conjunction data messages(CDMs) and solar information, early information becomes viable in miss distance prediction with unsupervised learning techniques, which learn the parameters that are linked together with miss distance and probability of collision (Pc) variables. Another approach implemented for identifying relationships within CDMs is supervised learning, in which a shallow neural network binary classifier learns to distinguish events with Pc values¡108. These parameters detected in the unsupervised process are then applied to a regression neural network, which predicts the miss distance at TCA for a specific event within a given uncertainty bound. For the regression neural network, a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is implemented, which yields memory about each time step in an event. Using an LSTM network, the model learns to predict miss distance within 0.2km of the value measured at TCA. Although there is a limited amount of "close miss" data to train a network, the network learns to associate parameters, like large energy dissipation rates with the secondary object, with an elevated Pc

Brianna I. Robertson↗

Applications of a fast and efficient method for simulating orbital mission safety

A fast and efficient method for simulating potential interactions between space objects is presented. The specialized hazard analysis simulation is run at the Russian Space Surveillance Center. It simulates the motion of objects in space and determines close encounters between these objects. First, ephemerides are predicted for all space objects over the time interval of concern. Second, using the predicted ephemerides, pairs of satellites that would likely collide are grouped together. Throughout the process, the pairs initially chosen are refined until all pairs of satellites are found which come within a certain miss distance of each other. In addition to the miss distance, other characteristics of the encounter including angle of incidence, relative velocity, type of approaching object, and probability of collision come out of the simulation. There are many potential applications of this simulation and its results to missing planning and mission safety. Artificial objects can be introduced to the simulation to examine potential encounters between the new objects and current objects for mission design applications. The simulation can be run many times to create data for statistical analysis of encounter parameters. These as well as many other potential applications are presented and discussed.

Huth, Jeffrey↗

Feasibility of hydroxyl concentration measurements by laser-saturated fluorescence in high-pressure flames

The effect of pressure on the laser-saturated fluorescence method for measuring OH concentration in high-pressure flames is studied using calculations for the burned-gas region of a stoichiometric H2-O2 flame at 2000 K. A numerical model of the excitation dynamics of OH is developed to explore the validity of the balanced cross-rate model at higher pressures. It is shown that depopulation of the laser-coupled levels is sensitive to collisions which depopulate v-double-prime (VDP) = 0 and to rate coefficients for rotational transfer in the ground state which are smaller than those in the excited state. In particular, it is shown that the depopulation of VDP = 0, and hence the laser-coupled levels, depends on the probability of electronic quenching to vibrational levels for which VDP is greater than 0 and vibrational relaxation to VDP = 0.

Carter, Campbell D.↗

Comet and Asteroid Hazard to the Terrestrial Planets

We made computer simulations of orbital evolution for intervals of at least 5-10 Myr of N=2000 Jupiter-crossing objects (JCOs) with initial orbits close to those of real comets with period P less than 10 yr, 500 objects with orbits close to that of Comet 10P, and the asteroids initially located at the 3:1 and 5:2 resonances with Jupiter at initial eccentricity e(sub 0)=0.15 and initial inclination i(sub 0)=10(sup 0). The gravitational influence of all planets, except for Mercury and Pluto, was taken into account (without dissipative factors). We calculated the probabilities of collisions of bodies with the terrestrial planets, using orbital elements obtained with a step equal to 500 yr, and then summarized the results for all bodies, obtaining, the total probability Psigma of collisions with a planet and the total time interval Tsigma during which perihelion distance q of bodies was less than a semimajor axis of the planet. The values of p(sub r) =10(exp 6)Psigma/N and T(sub r)=T/1000 yr (where T=Tsigma/N) are presented in a table together with the ratio r of the total time interval when orbits were of Apollo type (at a greater than 1 AU, q less than 1.017 AU, e less than 0.999) to that of Amor type (1.017 less than q less than 1.33 AU), r(sub 2) is the same as r but for Apollo objects with e less than 0.9. For asteroids we present only results obtained by direct integration, as a symplectic method can give large errors for these resonances.

Ipatov, S. I.↗