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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Contrail Reduction Strategies Based on Aircraft Flight Distances

This paper evaluates a set of contrail reduction strategies based on the flight range of aircraft as contrail reduction strategies have different impacts on aircraft depending on how they plan to fly. In general, aircraft with longer flight distances cruise at the altitudes where contrails are more likely to form. The concept of the contrail frequency index is used to quantify contrail impacts. The strategy for reducing the persistent contrail formation is to minimize the contrail frequency index by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude. A user-defined factor is used to trade off between contrail reduction and extra CO2 emissions. A higher value of tradeoff factor results in more contrail reduction and extra CO2 emissions. Results show that contrail reduction strategies using various tradeo factors behave differently from short-range flights to long-range ights. Analysis shows that short-distance flights (less than 500 miles) are the most frequent flights but contribute least to contrail reduction. Therefore these aircraft have the lowest priority when applying contrail reduction strategies. Medium-distance flights (500 to 1000 miles) have a higher priority if the goal is to achieve maximum contrail reduction in total; long-distance flights (1000 to 1500 miles) have a higher priority if the goal is to achieve maximum contrail reduction per flight. The characteristics of transcontinental flights (greater than 1500 miles) vary with different weather days so the priority of applying contrail reduction strategies to the group needs to be evaluated based on the locations of the contrail areas during any given day. For the days tested, medium-distance ights contribute up to 42.6% of the reduction among the groups during a day. The contrail frequency index per 1,000 miles for medium-distance, long-distance, and transcontinental flights can be reduced by an average of 75%. The results provide a starting point for developing operational policies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate based on aircraft flight distances.

Chen, Neil Y.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recent Cryogenic Carbon Capture™ Field Test Results

Sustainable Energy Solutions (SES) has been developing Cryogenic Carbon Capture™ (CCC) since 2008. In that time, two processes have been developed, the External Cooling Loop and Compressed Flue Gas CCC processes (CCC-ECL and CCC-CFG, respectively). The CCC-ECL process cools the flue gas with an external refrigerant loop. This process currently captures up to 1 tonne of CO2 per day (TPD). SES has tested CCC-ECL on real flue gas slip streams from subbituminous coal, bituminous coal, biomass, natural gas, shredded tires, and municipal waste fuels at field sites that include utility power stations, heating plants, cement kilns, and pilot-scale research reactors. The CO2 concentrations from these tests ranged from 5 to 22% on a dry basis. CO2 capture ranged from 95-99+% during these tests. Several other condensable species were also captured including NO2, SO2 and PMxx at 95+%. NO was also captured at a modest rate. The CCC-CFG process has been scaled up to a 0.25 ton per day system. This system has been tested on real flue gas streams including subbituminous coal, bituminous coal, and natural gas at field sites that include utility power stations, heating plants, and pilot-scale research reactors. CO2 concentrations for these tests ranged from 5 to 15% on a dry basis. CO2 capture ranged from 95-99+% during these tests. Several other condensable species were also captured including NO2, SO2, and PMxx at 95+%. NO was also captured at 90+%. Hg capture was also verified and the resulting effluent from CCC-CFG was below a 1ppt concentration. This paper will focus on discussion of the capabilities of CCC generally, the results of CCC-ECL field testing, and future steps surrounding the development of this technology. Test results that will be presented have been collected during 9 months of testing at a commercial power plant under funding from the US Department of Energy (DOE) and the host utility. Testing of one of the systems at a commercial cement plant in the United States will also be discussed. During this testing, the system captured CO2 from the cement plant and stored the CO2 in pressurized tanks. These tanks were provided to a partner company that later used the CO2 in a CO2 utilization demonstration. The CO2 was utilized to cure concrete manufactured using cement from the same plant where the CO2 was captured. This integrated capture and utilization demonstration was the first time that the cement industry has shown in the field that it can sequester its CO2 emissions in its main product stream. This represents a potential game changing solution for industrial CO2 emissions. Operational data and host-site feedback indicate that the CCC process is ideally suited for deployment into a variety of commercial environments. A few areas of de-risking remain to make sure the technology can meet very strict industrial reliability standards. These areas of de-risking are identified and discussed. The product CO2 is shown to meet specification for many uses including industrial and merchant applications. The technology is nearing readiness for deployment at commercial scale and several initial target markets have been identified.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Carbon dioxide↗
DOE OSTI2024

Self-Assembling Cell-Free Systems for Scalable Bioconversion

This project focused on developing cell-free systems to directly express multi-enzyme catalysts and perform CO2 bioconversions for industrial chemical production. The use of cell-free expression (CFE) systems derived from bacterial lysates is emerging as a promising approach for biomanufacturing. CFEs are genetically programmable, permit the expression of toxic enzymes, and allow for rapid prototyping of metabolic pathways. Research Contributions: 1. Understanding the Area Investigated: This research advances the understanding of cell-free systems by demonstrating their capability to perform complex multi-enzyme reactions. By directly expressing multi-gene systems, CFEs avoid the high costs and inefficiencies associated with producing and purifying enzymes for multi-step pathways. 2. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility: The project successfully engineered a CFE-based multienzyme biocatalyst for the de novo synthesis of serine and glycine from CO2 equivalents (formate and bicarbonate) and ammonia. This method achieved a 30% conversion rate of formate into these industrially important amino acids. Additionally, an 8-gene CFE biocatalyst was developed to produce malate, conserving 43% of carbon that would otherwise be lost as CO2. This approach has the potential to reach higher carbon efficiency than microbial production. 3. Public Benefit: The cell-free production of chemicals like serine, glycine, and malate using electrochemically generated formate could significantly reduce CO2 emissions. For example, satisfying the global malate market with this method could avoid approximately 400,000 tons of CO2 emissions annually. This work demonstrates the potential of CFE systems to produce platform chemicals, contributing to environmental sustainability and reducing reliance on petrochemicals. Future Prospects: The CFE-based biocatalyst process could be extended to produce a variety of chemicals, including other industrial di-acids, aromatics, terpenes, alcohols, and polymers. This project showcases the capabilities of cell-free expression systems for prototyping carbon-conserving pathways and sustainably bioproducing platform chemicals, marking a significant step towards economically-viable industrial processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2002

Conceptual Design of a Supersonic Business Jet Propulsion System

NASA's Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology Program (UEETP) is developing a suite of technology to enhance the performance of future aircraft propulsion systems. Areas of focus for this suite of technology include: Highly Loaded Turbomachinery, Emissions Reduction, Materials and Structures, Controls, and Propulsion-Airframe Integration. The two major goals of the UEETP are emissions reduction of both landing and take-off nitrogen oxides (LTO-NO(x)) and mission carbon dioxide (CO2) through fuel burn reductions. The specific goals include a 70 percent reduction in the current LTO-NO(x) rule and an 8 percent reduction in mission CO2 emissions. In order to gain insight into the potential applications and benefits of these technologies on future aircraft, a set of representative flight vehicles was selected for systems level conceptual studies. The Supersonic Business Jet (SBJ) is one of these vehicles. The particular SBJ considered in this study has a capacity of 6 passengers, cruise Mach Number of 2.0, and a range of 4,000 nautical miles. Without the current existence of an SBJ the study of this vehicle requires a two-phased approach. Initially, a hypothetical baseline SBJ is designed which utilizes only current state of the art technology. Finally, an advanced SBJ propulsion system is designed and optimized which incorporates the advanced technologies under development within the UEETP. System benefits are then evaluated and compared to the program and design requirements. Although the program goals are only concerned with LTO-NO(x) and CO2 emissions, it is acknowledged that additional concerns for an SBJ include take-off noise, overland supersonic flight, and cruise NO(x) emissions at high altitudes. Propulsion system trade-offs in the conceptual design phase acknowledge these issues as well as the program goals. With the inclusion of UEETP technologies a propulsion system is designed which performs at 81% below the LTO-NO(x) rule, and reduces fuel burn by 23 percent compared to the current technology.

Bruckner, Robert J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Long-Term Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage to Reference Power Generation Technologies Using CO2 Avoidance Cost in the U.S.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) can sequester atmospheric CO2, while producing electricity. The CO2 avoidance cost (CAC) is used to calculate the marginal cost of avoided CO2 emissions for BECCS as compared to other established energy technologies. A comparative analysis using four different reference-case power plants for CAC calculations is performed here to evaluate the CO2 avoidance cost of BECCS implementation. Results from this work demonstrate that BECCS can generate electricity at costs competitive with other neutral emissions technologies, while simultaneously removing CO2 from the atmosphere. Approximately 73% of current coal power plants are approaching retirement by the year 2035 in the U.S. After considering CO2 sequestered from the atmosphere and coal power plant CO2 emissions displaced by BECCS, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 1.4 billion tonnes per year in the U.S. alone at a cost of $88 to $116 per tonne of CO2 removed from the atmosphere, for 10% to 90% of available biomass used, respectively. CAC calculations in this paper indicate that BECCS can help the U.S. and other countries transition to a decarbonized electricity grid, as simulations presented in this paper predict that BECCS power plants operate at lower CACs than coal plants with CCS.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Continued Exploration of the Electrified Aircraft Propulsion Design Space

A previous electrified aircraft propulsion (EAP) design space exploration study was continued to investigate the impact of mission constraints, further explore the design space of different sized aircraft, and improve the modeling process. Three aircraft were investigated, 18- and 48-passenger turboprops, and a 78-passenger turbofan. Baseline aircraft models were inherited from the earlier study and were hybridized by applying EAP technologies. A parametric study varying motor power and battery specific energy was conducted. For the 78-passenger turbofan, design range was also introduced as a parametric parameter. Key metrics for the study included equivalent lifecycle CO2 emissions and direct operating cost plus interest. Both turboprop aircraft demonstrated significant potential savings in block fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, but at increased operating costs compared to their baseline models. As the 78-passenger turbofan had shown no improvements in any metrics under reasonable technology assumptions, design range was shortened in an attempt to obtain performance benefits. When designed for a shorter range, the 78-passenger EAP vehicle showed potential improvements in block fuel when compared to a baseline with a similarly shortened design range, but not in any other metrics. Operating cost reductions were not achieved for any aircraft, but several designs came close to breaking even with their baselines. Smaller, shorter range aircraft and turboprops demonstrated larger performance benefits and smaller operating cost penalties, but a simple trade of electric energy storage in batteries for fuel is generally insufficient to produce a viable aircraft concept.

Electrified Aircraft Propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2022

Flexible FlueCO2

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions remain a significant challenge on the path to clean energy. There are increasing legislative, social, and environmental factors motivating CO2 emissions reduction from power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). CCS in natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants is critical to achieve a net-zero carbon electricity grid. Enhanced 45Q tax credits provide new incentives, but currently available technologies are unable to profitably operate in grids with deep variable renewable penetration which require flexible NGCC operation. Luna Labs has developed the FlueCO2 membrane to enable a profitable NGCC-CCS process. The FlueCO2 membrane couples steam transport across the membrane to CO2 transport in the opposite direction, enabling high capture efficiencies and low energy costs even at low CO2 concentrations. The dual-phase membrane can operate in the range of typical flue gas temperatures and pressures and does not require temperature or pressure cycling. Luna Labs’ FlueCO2 technology enables flexible and profitable operation of NGCC plants with lower capital investment and impact on electricity prices. In this Phase 1 project, Luna Labs utilized experimental testing, modeling, process simulation, and standardized costing methodologies to evaluate the techno-economic value of a 650 MW greenfield NGCC plant with FlueCO2 (NGCC-FlueCO2). Key design requirements for operation were established and plant performance under load-leveling conditions was validated through computational fluid dynamics and process modeling. Luna Labs developed a dynamic modeling tool which modeled plant operational modes across a variety of tax structures and electricity pricing scenarios to project the overall Net Present Value (NPV) of the NGCC-FlueCO2. FlueCO2 minimizes the impact of CCS integration on plant operation by integrating directly into the NGCC heat recovery steam generator (HRSG). By tapping into the plant’s low-pressure (LP) steam, operators can divert LP steam to the greenfield NGCC and/or CCS process in response to dynamic markets. Since FlueCO2 will not significantly affect HRSG (or NGCC) operation, CCS only turns off during peak power demand (>$250/MWh). Under baseload conditions, FlueCO2 lowers the capital (37%), energy (36%) and carbon capture (<$40/tonne) costs and can increase the overall plant lifetime NPV by approximately ~$1B in comparison with NGCC solvent-based capture reference cases (NETL Case 31B). Luna Labs has shared its costing tools with several interested partners and customers, which follows a generalizable approach to costing analysis.

Kelly, Jesse↗
NASA NTRS2017

How Can CO2 Help Agriculture in the Face of Climate Change?

Humans are increasing the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air through CO2 emissions. This is changing the climate, making life harder for many plants in areas that suffer from heat and drought. However, plants need CO2 to grow, and more CO2 can make them grow better. So will plants overall benefit from increased CO2 level or suffer from it? We wanted to test if the positive effect would offset the negative ones. To do so, we used scientific models to calculate future crop production and water use of four important crops all over the world under different scenarios of CO2 emissions and climate change. Our calculations show that although there will be large reductions in crop yield due to climate change over the next century, some crops will still be able to grow well. This is also because crops can grow with less water when CO2 levels are raised.

Delphine, Deryng↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗
NASA NTRS2013

Climate Forcing Growth Rates: Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3/yr, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40 of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

climate↗
NASA NTRS2021

Hybrid Electric Aircraft Thermal Management: Now, New Visions and Future Concepts and Formulation

The global fuel consumption by commercial airlines has increased each year since 2009 and is predicted to reach an all-time high of 97 billion gallons in 2019. There is also an environmental impact from this: CO2 emissions from commercial passenger and freight operations totaled 918 Mt in 2018 (ICCT, 2019), or around 2.5% of global energy-related CO2 emissions. Passenger transport accounted for 81% of the total. Emissions from aviation have grown 32% over the past five years. Coupled with this aspect, there is a continuous and growing need to satisfy ever-growing electrical power needs on commercial and military aircraft. All the armed services (Army, Navy, and Air Force) are continuously trying to enhance UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) endurance and range across a broad fleet of different aircraft. The commercial Boeing 787 requires about 1.2MWe and that is expected to grow. Current technologies used to supply increased on-board electrical power are generally: 1) “burn more fuel and convert through on-board generators” and 2) use additional heavy (i.e., weight-inefficient) and sometimes unsafe battery systems on-board the aircraft. The aircraft industry is seeking new, innovative ways to satisfy this increasing power demand. One as-yet-untapped power source is the enormous amount of “waste” thermal energy flowing out the jet engine exhaust; some estimates in smaller “by-pass” flow jet engines is several hundreds of kilowatts (e.g., Pratt & Whitney Canada PW545B turbofan). This quantity is much higher in large jet engines associated with commercial aircraft. This large waste thermal energy manifests itself in large temperature differences within the by-pass-flow engine exhaust system relative to outside ambient conditions, because of the actual by-pass engine design configuration. There is strong need to develop thermal technologies and systems that could harness and convert at least a portion of this thermal energy into useful electrical energy to satisfy growing on-board electrical needs. In addition, there is a strong desire within the aircraft and engine manufacturing community to reduce the “carbon footprint” of the industry though reduced fuel usage worldwide. NASA has a robust aircraft electrification program to meet these desires and support industry in its aircraft electrification objectives. This program is integrating thermoacoustic systems, advanced lightweight heat exchanger technology, and advanced heat pipe technology to capture and transport large amounts of engine waste thermal energy for on-board power conversion, advanced heat-pump cooling, and exergy enhancement (i.e., temperature lift). Advanced lightweight heat exchangers are envisioned to capture engine exhaust thermal energy at approximately 673 K and deliver it to efficient thermoacoustic power conversion systems operating at temperature ratios (Thot/Tcold) > 1.6. Advanced heat pipe systems are envisioned to transport thermal energy from low temperature sources, through thermoacoustic heat pumps, to high temperature needs such as wing anti-icing, fuel pre-heating, and combustion air pre-heating. The paper will discuss the current state-of-the-art, objectives, system design architecture, and remaining technical challenges in system formulation within the NASA aircraft electrification program.

Dyson, Rodger↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for "Field-scale Evaluation of Ecosystem Service Benefits of Bioenergy Switchgrass"

Purpose-grown perennial herbaceous species are nonfood crops specifically cultivated for bioenergy production and have the potential to secure bioenergy feedstock resources while enhancing ecosystem services. This study assessed soil greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 and N2O), nitrate (NO3-N) leaching reduction potential, evapotranspiration (ET), and water-use efficiency (WUE) of bioenergy switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) in comparison to corn ( Zea mays L.). The study was conducted on field-scale plots in Urbana, IL, during the 2020–2022 growing seasons. Switchgrass was established in 2020 and urea-fertilized at 56 kg N ha−1 year−1. Corn management followed best management practices for the US Midwest, including no-till and 202 kg N ha−1 year−1 fertilization, applied as urea–ammonium nitrate (32%). Our results showed lower direct N2O emissions in switchgrass compared to corn. Although soil CO2 emissions did not differ significantly during the establishment year, emissions in subsequent years were over 50% higher in switchgrass than in corn, likely due to increased belowground biomass, which was over five times higher in switchgrass. Nitrate-N leaching decreased as the switchgrass stand matured, reaching 80% lower than in corn by the third year. Differences in ET and WUE between corn and switchgrass were not significant; however, results indicate a trend toward reduced WUE in switchgrass under drought, driven by lower aboveground biomass production. Our study demonstrates that switchgrass can be implemented at a commercial scale without negatively impacting the hydrological cycle, while potentially reducing N losses through nitrate-N leaching and soil N2O emissions, and enhancing belowground C storage.

field data↗
NASA NTRS1990

Carbon dioxide emissions from Deccan volcanism and a K/T boundary greenhouse effect

A greenhouse warming caused by increased emissions of carbon dioxide from the Deccan Traps volcanism has been suggested as the cause of the terminal Cretaceous extinctions on land and in the sea. Total eruptive and noneruptive CO2 output by the Deccan eruptions (from 6 to 20 x 10 to the 16th moles) over a period of several hundred thousand years is estimated based on best estimates of the CO2 weight fraction of the original basalts and basaltic melts, the fraction of CO2 degassed, and the volume of the Deccan Traps eruptions. Results of a model designed to estimate the effects of increased CO2 on climate and ocean chemistry suggest that increases in atmospheric pCO2 due to Deccan Traps CO2 emissions would have been less than 75 ppm, leading to a predicted global warming of less than 1 C over several hundred thousand years. It is concluded that the direct climate effects of CO2 emissions from the Deccan eruptions would have been too weak to be an important factor in the end-Cretaceous mass extinctions.

Caldeira, Ken↗
DOE OSTI2024

District heating utilizing waste heat of a data center: High-temperature heat pumps

Data centers are energy-intensive facilities with substantial low-grade waste heat. High-temperature heat pumps can be critical in boosting the data center’s waste heat for district heating, improving the system-level energy efficiency of data centers, and reducing CO 2 emissions in district heating. This study built thermodynamic models to assess high-temperature heat pumps with six configurations using low global warming potential refrigerants to supply heat up to 120 °C. The heat pump configurations include single-stage or two-stage cycles with advanced components, such as internal heat exchanger, economizer, flash tank, or parallel compressor. The refrigerants include R1234ze(Z), R1233ed(E), R1224yd(Z), R600, and R600a, and R245fa is used as a reference. A case study was carried out to recover the waste heat from the Frontier high-performance computing data center and provide hot water for district heating at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory campus. The optimized performance of high-temperature heat pumps is characterized with various effectiveness of internal heat exchangers, and the operating parameters of economizer or flash tank, as well as their combination. The results show that the configurations of two-stage cycles with internal heat exchanger + flash tank and internal heat exchanger + economizer/parallel-compressor provide the highest coefficient of performance under scenarios of the maximum allowable value and a fixed value (0.3) of the internal heat exchangers’ effectiveness, respectively. R1234ze(Z) and R600a are the most promising refrigerants, considering trade-offs between the coefficient of performance and the volumetric heating capacity. The single-stage cycle with internal heat exchanger + economizer/parallel-compressor using R1234ze(Z) is recommended for utilizing Fronter’s waste heat in district heating. A one mega-watt high-temperature heat pump will reduce 33,100–33,200 metric tons of CO2 emission annually, corresponding to 85.4 %–85.6 % of equivalent CO2 emissions from natural gas boilers. Here, this study provides good guidelines for designing and deploying high-temperature heat pumps to support sustainable data centers and decarbonize district heating in the US.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1997

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

Potter, C.↗