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At least 109 records · Page 6

The relationship between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and the child’s experience of school at age 9

Background At age 5, while only embarking on their educational journey, substantial differences in children’s cognitive ability will already exist. The aim of this study was to examine the causal association between below average cognitive ability at age 5 years and child-reported experience of school and self-concept, and teacher-reported class engagement and emotional-behavioural function at age 9 years. Methods This longitudinal cohort study used data from 7,392 children in the Growing Up in Ireland Infant Cohort, who had completed the Picture Similarities and Naming Vocabulary subtests of the British Abilities Scales at age 5. Principal components analysis was used to produce a composite general cognitive ability score for each child. Children with a general cognitive ability score more than 1 standard deviation (SD) below the mean at age 5 were categorised as ‘Below Average Cognitive Ability’ (BACA), and those scoring above this as ‘Typical Cognitive Development’ (TCD). The outcomes of interest, measured at age 9, were child-reported experience of school, child’s self-concept, teacher-reported class engagement, and teacher-reported emotional behavioural function. Binary and multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the association between BACA and these outcomes. Results Compared to those with TCD, those with BACA had significantly higher odds of never liking school [Adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.82, 95% CI 1.37–2.43, p < 0.001], of being picked on (AOR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09–1.48) and of picking on others (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.27–1.84). They had significantly higher odds of experiencing low self-concept (AOR 1.20, 95% CI 1.02–1.42) and emotional-behavioural difficulties (AOR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10–1.63, p = 0.003). Compared to those with TCD, children with BACA had significantly higher odds of hardly ever or never being interested, motivated and excited to learn (AOR 2.29, 95% CI 1.70–3.10). Conclusion Children with BACA at school-entry had significantly higher odds of reporting a negative school experience and low self-concept at age 9. They had significantly higher odds of having teacher-reported poor class engagement and problematic emotional-behavioural function at age 9. The findings of this study suggest BACA has a causal role in these adverse outcomes. Early childhood policy and intervention design should be cognisant of the important role of cognitive ability in school and childhood outcomes.

Bowe, Andrea K.↗

Carbon‐negative hydrogen from ethanol via catalytic oxidative reforming

Abstract This study evaluated a commercial technology for producing low‐ or negative‐carbon hydrogen through ethanol catalytic oxidative reforming, focusing on the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions, or carbon intensity (CI). Various scenarios were analyzed: (a) comparing corn ethanol (first‐generation or Gen1 ethanol) and cellulosic ethanol (second‐generation or Gen2 ethanol) as feedstocks; (b) assessing carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) for CO 2 from upstream fermentation; and (c) evaluating oxygen sourcing via air separation units vs. on‐site or off‐site water electrolysis using a proton exchange membrane. Findings indicate that the CI for hydrogen production using Gen2 ethanol from corn stover is lower than that of Gen1 corn ethanol. Additionally, using proton exchange membrane‐generated oxygen results in a lower CI than air separation unit‐generated oxygen, regardless of the sourcing method. Implementing CCS for the hydrogen production plant's evolved CO 2 is essential for achieving a net‐negative CI for hydrogen from Gen1 ethanol. All examined scenarios, including both ethanol generations, oxygen sources, and CCS applications, demonstrated a net‐negative carbon intensity, surpassing the life cycle greenhouse gas emissions threshold of 0.45 kg CO 2 e/kg to enable policy credits as outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act §45V. In comparison, the CI for hydrogen from steam methane reforming stands at 3.4 kg CO 2 e/kg with CCS and 9.4 kg CO 2 e/kg without CCS.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Incremental approach for the life-cycle greenhouse gas analysis of carbon capture and utilization

Electro-fuels (e-fuels) are examples of carbon capture and utilization (CCU) hydrocarbon products that are derived from captured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), while using renewable electricity as the energy feedstock. The environmental impacts of CCU products (e.g., e-fuel) are systematically quantified through life-cycle analysis (LCA). Previous studies evaluating LCA of e-fuels proposed frameworks with an expanded system boundary approach that included the entire supply chain of the production process generating the CO 2 for CCU, in addition to the supply chain of the CCU product. This expanded system boundary approach evaluates two system boundaries, and uses deduction methods to calculate the carbon intensity (CI) of the CCU product (e-fuel). This paper proposes a simpler system boundary using an incremental approach that can calculate identical CI of the CCU product (e-fuel), while avoiding the extensive calculations in the expanded system boundary framework. The proposed incremental approach allocates the burdens of the CO 2 capturing process to the CO 2 feedstock supplying the CCU production process (e.g., e-fuel production). The CI of the captured CO 2 supplied to CCU process is determined by the energy and material requirements for the CO 2 capturing process and transportation to the CCU plant. Thus, the CI of CO 2 supplied to CCU process can be directly linked to the CI of e-fuel without the need to conduct LCA of the preceding process that generates the CO 2 for CCU.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Application of multi-method-multi-model inference to radiation related solid cancer excess risks models for astronaut risk assessment

The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Evaluating Possible Formation Mechanisms of Criegee Intermediates during the Heterogeneous Autoxidation of Squalene

Organic molecules in the environment oxidatively degrade by a variety of free radical, microbial, and biogeochemical pathways. A significant pathway is heterogeneous autoxidation, in which degradation occurs via a network of carbon and oxygen centered free radicals. Recently, we found evidence for a new heterogeneous autoxidation mechanism of squalene that is initiated by hydroxyl (OH) radical addition to a carbon–carbon double bond and apparently propagated through pathways involving Criegee Intermediates (CI) produced from β-hydroxy peroxy radicals (β-OH-RO 2 •). It remains unclear, however, exactly how CI are formed from β-OH-RO 2 •, which could occur by a unimolecular or bimolecular pathway. Combining kinetic models and multiphase OH oxidation measurements of squalene, we evaluate the kinetic viability of three mechanistic scenarios. Scenario 1 assumes that CI are formed by the unimolecular bond scission of β-OH-RO 2 •, whereas Scenarios 2 and 3 test bimolecular pathways of β-OH-RO 2 • to yield CI. Scenario 1 best replicates the entire experimental data set, which includes effective uptake coefficients vs [OH] as well as the formation kinetics of the major products (i.e., aldehydes and secondary ozonides). Finally, although the unimolecular pathway appears to be kinetically viable, future high-level theory is needed to fully explain the mechanistic relationship between CI and β-OH-RO 2 • in the condensed phase.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Coupling of Lipid Peroxidation and Criegee Intermediate Mediated Autoxidation in the Heterogeneous Oxidation of Linoleic Acid Aerosols

Autoxidation is an established mechanism for the degradation of organic molecules, which is relevant in the atmosphere, combustion processes, the environment, and the rancidification of lipids (commonly known as lipid peroxidation). Autoxidation proceeds via radical chain reactions involving hydroxyl (•OH), peroxy (RO2•), and alkoxy radicals, which are also prominent oxidants in the atmosphere. Recent reports have provided evidence for an alternative autoxidation mechanism driven instead by Criegee intermediates (CIs), which are produced from the reaction of β-hydroxy peroxy radicals (β-OH-RO2•). This work evaluates the contributions of these two mechanisms in the •OH initiated heterogeneous oxidation of linoleic acid (LA) aerosols. Reaction kinetics and product distributions are monitored using a vacuum ultraviolet photoionization aerosol time-of-flight mass spectrometer. To explain the observed kinetics, a kinetic model is developed that incorporates both the conventional peroxidation and alternative CI-mediated autoxidation mechanisms. We observe that the CI-mediated autoxidation pathways enhance the heterogeneous autoxidation rate, while the peroxidation reactions, although present, contributes less to the overall oxidation rate. α-Acyloxyalkyl hydroperoxides (AAHPs) are identified as key indicators for bimolecular reactions of CI with LA, highlighting the role of LA as a CI scavenger. Moreover, the measured functionalized LA products with hydroxyl or carbonyl group(s), serve as markers for the peroxidation reactions. In summary, this work presents a quantitative framework to understand the coupled reaction network of •OH, RO2•, β-OH-RO2• radicals, and CI in driving heterogeneous autoxidation, which is crucial for understanding degradation mechanisms of organic molecules in the environment and atmosphere.

Criegee intermediate↗

Co-Location of Cellulosic Bioethanol and Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ) Production Facilities for Targeted Scale-Up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Production

Achieving aerospace industry net-zero emissions by 2050 requires rapid scaling of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production. Leveraging existing infrastructure, proven technologies like Alcohol-to-Jet (ATJ), and low carbon intensity (CI) feedstocks (e.g., switchgrass and miscanthus) can support this transition and help achieve near-term emissions reduction targets. This study evaluates the implications of lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery siting and integration with petroleum refineries to produce SAF across 1000 sites randomly sampled from areas suitable for perennial grasses in the U.S. rainfed region. To better understand the logistics of material transport and handoffs, we integrated models of biomass harvest, transport, ethanol, and ATJ production in a stochastic framework based on Monte Carlo simulations to characterize SAF minimum selling price (MSP) and carbon intensity (CI), considering site-specific parameters (e.g., feedstock production, transportation, taxes, incentives). The results indicate trade-offs between MSP and CI across locations, with median MSP ranging from 7.9 to 12.8 USD·gal −1 and CI from −9.7 to 39.4 gCO 2 e·MJ −1 . Despite high estimated decarbonization costs (580 USD·tonCO 2 e −1 ), our results indicate that site-specific deployment of ATJ with low-CI feedstocks can improve sustainability outcomes. The framework provides a systematic approach to assess cost and sustainability trade-offs across locations, considering the end-to-end supply chain and supporting an informed investment in SAF production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Identification of the acetaldehyde oxide Criegee intermediate reaction network in the ozone-assisted low-temperature oxidation of trans -2-butene

Uni- and bi-molecular reactions involving Criegee intermediates (CIs) have been the focus of many studies due to the role these molecules play in atmospheric chemistry. The reactivity of CIs is known to strongly depend on their structure. The reaction network of the second simplest CI, acetaldehyde oxide (CH 3 CHOO), is investigated in this work in an atmospheric pressure jet-stirred reactor (JSR) during the ozonolysis of trans-2-butene to explore the kinetic pathways relevant to atmospheric chemistry and low-temperature combustion. The mole fraction profiles of reactants, intermediates, and final products are determined by means of molecular-beam mass spectrometry in conjunction with single-photon ionization employing tunable synchrotron-generated vacuum ultraviolet radiation. A network of CI reactions is identified in the temperature region below 600 K, characterized by CI addition to trans-2-butene, water, formaldehyde, formic acid, and methanol. No sequential additions of the CH 3 CHOO CI are observed, in contrast with the reactivity of the simplest CI (H 2 COO) and the earlier observation of an extensive reaction network with up to four H 2 COO sequential additions (Phys. Chem. Chem. Phys., 2019, 21, 7341–7357). Experimental photoionization efficiency scans recorded at 300 K and 425 K and ab initio threshold energy calculations lead to the identification and quantification of previously elusive intermediates, such as ketohydroperoxide and hydroperoxide species. Specifically, the C 4 H 8 + O 3 adduct is identified as a ketohydroperoxide (KHP, 3-hydroperoxybutan-2-one, CH 3 C([double bond, length as m-dash]O)CH(CH 3 )OOH), while hydroxyacetaldehyde (glycolaldehyde, HCOCH 2 OH) formation is attributed to unimolecular isomerization of the CIs. Other hydroperoxide species such as methyl hydroperoxide (CH 3 OOH), ethyl hydroperoxide (C 2 H 5 OOH), butyl hydroperoxide (OOH), hydroperoxyl acetaldehyde (HOOCH 2 CHO), hydroxyethyl hydroperoxide (CH 3 CH(OH)OOH), but-1-enyl-3-hydroperoxide, and 4-hydroxy-3-methylpentan-2-one (HOCH(CH 3 )CH(CH 3 )C([double bond, length as m-dash]O)CH 3 ) are also identified. Detection of additional oxygenated species such as methanol, ethanol, ketene, and aldehydes suggests multiple active oxidation routes. Finally, these results provide additional evidence that CIs are key intermediates of the ozone-unsaturated hydrocarbon reactions providing critical inputs for improved kinetics models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Fast transformations between configuration state function and Slater determinant bases for direct configuration interaction

A hybrid configuration state function (CSF) and Slater determinant (SD) basis full configuration interaction (CI) program was developed to simultaneously take advantage of fast SD basis algorithms for σ = Hc formation and the smaller CI vector length and more robust convergence offered by a CSF basis. Graphical processing unit acceleration of the direct CSF-SD and SD-CSF basis transformation algorithms ensures that the combined transformation time per iteration relative to σ formation is small (~15%). In addition to the obvious benefits of reducing the memory footprint of the CI vector, additional computational savings are demonstrated that rely directly on the size of the CI basis, in one particular case reducing the CI time-to-solution of a HF-CAS-(16,16)-CI/6-31G calculation of ethylene from 1954.79 s to 956 s by using a CSF basis, a 2.0× speedup.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Mortality among workers at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, 1943–2017

During World War II (WWII), the Manhattan Engineering District established a secret laboratory in the mountains of northern New Mexico. The mission was to design, construct and test the first atomic weapon, nicknamed ‘The Gadget’ that was detonated at the TRINITY site in Alamogordo, NM. After WWII, nuclear weapons research continued, and the laboratory became the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The mortality experience of 26,328 workers first employed between 1943 and 1980 at LANL was determined through 2017. Included were 6157 contract workers employed by the ZIA Company. Organ dose estimates for each worker considered all sources of exposure, notably photons, neutrons, tritium, 238Pu and 239Pu. Vital status determination included searches within the National Death Index, Social Security Administration and New Mexico State Mortality Files. Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMR) and Cox regression models were used in the analyses. Most workers (55%) were hired before 1960, 38% had a college degree, 25% were female, 81% white, 13% Hispanic and 60% had died. Vital status was complete, with only 0.1% lost to follow-up. The mean dose to the lung for the 17,053 workers monitored for radiation was 28.6 weighted-mGy (maximum 16.8 weighted-Gy) assuming a Dose Weighting Factor of 20 for alpha particle dose to lung. The Excess Relative Risk (ERR) at 100 weighted-mGy was 0.01 (95%CI -0.02, 0.03; n = 839) for lung cancer. The ERR at 100 mGy was -0.43 (95%CI -1.11, 0.24; n = 160) for leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), -0.06 (95%CI -0.16, 0.04; n = 3043) for ischemic heart disease (IHD), and 0.29 (95%CI 0.02, 0.55; n = 106) for esophageal cancer. Among the 6499 workers with measurable intakes of plutonium, an increase in bone cancer (SMR 2.44; 95%CI 0.98, 5.03; n = 7) was related to dose. The SMR for berylliosis was significantly high, based on 4 deaths. SMRs for Hispanic workers were significantly high for cancers of the stomach and liver, cirrhosis of the liver, nonmalignant kidney disease and diabetes, but the excesses were not related to radiation dose. There was little evidence that radiation increased the risk of lung cancer or leukemia. Esophageal cancer was associated with radiation, and plutonium intakes were linked to an increase of bone cancer. IHD was not associated with radiation dose. More precise evaluations will await the pooled analysis of workers with similar exposures such as at Rocky Flats, Savannah River and Hanford.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Dependence of ion-cyclotron range of frequencies instabilities on species mix and fast-ion distribution: I. Stability

Ion cyclotron emission (ICE) driven by fast ions has the potential to be a reactor relevant diagnostic of confined and escaping fast ions; moreover, controlled experiments in magnetic fusion devices can shed light on similar magnetospheric instabilities below and above the ion cyclotron frequency f ci . Dedicated DIII-D experiments studied instabilities below f ci and at cyclotron harmonics l f ci by injecting thirteen different neutral beam populations into plasmas with different thermal compositions of H, D, and 3He at five different values of toroidal field. High-frequency magnetic loops diagnose mode properties. Each beam type is individually injected for an approximate slowing-down time (~100 ms), resulting in a database of 2529 conditions that are analyzed in frequency bands corresponding to ICE harmonics and < f ci global Alfvén eigenmodes. The sub-cyclotron modes are more unstable at low field and in plasmas with large H concentration. For D injection, first harmonic ICE at f cD is more unstable in hydrogen plasmas but, for H injection, the converse is true (ICE at f cH is more unstable in D), suggesting that thermal same-species ions damp fundamental ICE. ICE stability also depends upon the pitch-angle anisotropy gradient and upon the ‘bump-on-tail’ gradient ∂f/∂v. Although the frequency of unstable ICE in these plasmas always occurs near the central cyclotron frequency, the precise value also depends on the Alfvén speed and beam direction, consistent with the idea that instability occurs for modes that simultaneously satisfy ω ≃ 2πlf ci , the magnetosonic dispersion relation, and the Doppler-shifted resonance condition.

electromagnetic ion cyclotron instabilities↗

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly

Abstract Background Looking older for one’s chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. Objectives To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5–87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). Results We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one’s age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = −0.76, 95% CI −1.35 to −0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73–0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04–0.10). Conclusions PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Mekić, Selma↗

Inactivation of mitochondrial complex I stimulates chloroplast ATPase in Physcomitrium patens

Abstract Light is the ultimate source of energy for photosynthetic organisms, but respiration is fundamental for supporting metabolism during the night or in heterotrophic tissues. In this work, we isolated Physcomitrella (Physcomitrium patens) plants with altered respiration by inactivating Complex I (CI) of the mitochondrial electron transport chain by independently targeting on two essential subunits. Inactivation of CI caused a strong growth impairment even in fully autotrophic conditions in tissues where all cells are photosynthetically active, demonstrating that respiration is essential for photosynthesis. CI mutants showed alterations in the stoichiometry of respiratory complexes while the composition of photosynthetic apparatus was substantially unaffected. CI mutants showed altered photosynthesis with high activity of both Photosystems I and II, likely the result of high chloroplast ATPase activity that led to smaller ΔpH formation across thylakoid membranes, decreasing photosynthetic control on cytochrome b6f in CI mutants. These results demonstrate that alteration of respiratory activity directly impacts photosynthesis in P. patens and that metabolic interaction between organelles is essential in their ability to use light energy for growth.

Plant Sciences↗

BeeSwarm: Enabling Parallel Scaling Performance Measurement in Continuous Integration for HPC Applications

Testing is one of the most important steps in software development–it ensures the quality of software. Continuous Integration (CI) is a widely used testing standard that can report software quality to the developer in a timely manner during development progress. Performance, especially scalability, is another key factor for High Performance Computing (HPC) applications. There are many existing profiling and performance tools for HPC applications, but none of these are integrated into CI tools. In this work, we propose BeeSwarm, an HPC container based parallel scaling performance system that can be easily applied to the current CI test environments. BeeSwarm is mainly designed for HPC application developers who need to monitor how their applications can scale on different compute resources. We demonstrate BeeSwarm using a multi-physics HPC application with Travis CI, GitLab CI and GitHub Actions while using ChameleonCloud and Google Compute Engine as the compute backends. Finally, our results show that BeeSwarm can be used for scalability and performance testing of HPC applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pregnancy outcome after first trimester exposure to domperidone—An observational cohort study

Abstract Aim To assess the teratogenic risk of domperidone by comparing the incidence of major malformation with domperidone to a control. Methods Pregnancy outcome data were obtained for women at two Japanese facilities that provide counseling on drug use during pregnancy between April 1988 and December 2017. The incidence of major malformation was calculated among infants born to women taking domperidone ( n = 519), nonteratogenic drugs (control, n = 1673), or metoclopramide (reference, n = 241) during the first trimester of pregnancy. Using the control group as reference, the crude odds ratio (OR) of the incidence of major malformation in the domperidone and metoclopramide groups was calculated using univariable logistic regression analysis. Adjusted OR was also calculated using multivariable logistic regression analysis adjusted for various other factors. Results The incidence of major malformation was 2.9% (14/485, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6–4.8) in the domperidone group, 1.7% (27/1554, 95%CI: 1.1–2.5) in the control group, and 3.6% (8/224, 95%CI: 1.6–6.9) in the metoclopramide group. The adjusted multivariable logistic regression analysis showed no significant difference in incidence between the control and domperidone groups (adjusted OR: 1.86 [95%CI: 0.73–4.70], p = 0.191) or between the control and metoclopramide groups (adjusted OR: 2.20 [95%CI: 0.69–6.98], p = 0.183). Conclusions This observational cohort study showed that domperidone exposure during the first trimester was not associated with increased risk of major malformation in infants. These results may help alleviate the anxiety of patients who took domperidone during pregnancy.

Hishinuma, Kayoko↗

Expected individual benefit of prophylactic platelet transfusions in hemato‐oncology patients based on bleeding risks

Abstract Background Prophylactic platelet transfusions prevent bleeding in hemato‐oncology patients, but it is unclear how any benefit varies between patients. Our aim was to assess if patients with different baseline risks for bleeding benefit differently from a prophylactic platelet transfusion strategy. Study design and methods Using the data from the randomized controlled TOPPS trial (Trial of Platelet Prophylaxis), we developed a prediction model for World Health Organization grades 2, 3, and 4 bleeding risk (defined as at least one bleeding episode in a 30 days period) and grouped patients in four risk‐quartiles based on this predicted baseline risk. Predictors in the model were baseline platelet count, age, diagnosis, disease modifying treatment, disease status, previous stem cell transplantation, and the randomization arm. Results The model had a c‐statistic of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.64). There was little variation in predicted risks (quartiles 46%, 47%, and 51%), but prophylactic platelet transfusions gave a risk reduction in all risk quartiles. The absolute risk difference (ARD) was 3.4% (CI −12.2 to 18.9) in the lowest risk quartile (quartile 1), 7.4% (95% CI −8.4 to 23.3) in quartile 2, 6.8% (95% CI −9.1 to 22.9) in quartile 3, and 12.8% (CI −3.1 to 28.7) in the highest risk quartile (quartile 4). Conclusion In our study, generally accepted bleeding risk predictors had limited predictive power (expressed by the low c‐statistic), and, given the wide confidence intervals of predicted ARD, could not aid in identifying subgroups of patients who might benefit more (or less) from prophylactic platelet transfusion.

Cornelissen, Loes L.↗

Reproductive intentions among HIV-negative gay and bisexual men initiating pre-exposure prophylaxis in the Sustainable Health Center Implementation pre-exposure prophylaxis pilot study, 2014–2016

Introduction We assessed reproductive intentions and associated characteristics among men enrolled in the Sustainable Health Center Implementation pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) Pilot (SHIPP) Study. Methods We analyzed baseline data from 1275 men who self-identified as gay or bisexual and participated in the SHIPP study. SHIPP was a cohort study of PrEP implementation in five community health centers in Chicago, Jackson, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C. conducted from 2014 to 2016. Participants completed audio computer-assisted self-interviews querying intentions to have a child in the future. We estimated the association between participants’ reproductive intentions and their characteristics using Poisson regression models. Results Approximately 47% of participants indicated their intentions to have a child. Black/non-Hispanic (aPR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.10–1.78) and other/non-Hispanic participants (aPR = 1.40; 95% CI: 1.01–1.93) were more likely to report intentions to have a child than white/non-Hispanic participants. Participants were less likely to report intentions to have children as age increased (18–29 years, reference group; 30–39 years, aPR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.64–0.99; 40–49 years, aPR = 0.49, 95% CI: 0.33–0.72; 50+ years, aPR = 0.07, 95% CI: 0.02–0.21). Conclusions Clinicians offering PrEP to black and other/non-Hispanic gay and bisexual men should assess their reproductive intentions as family-planning counseling may be an opportunity to introduce PrEP to HIV-negative gay and bisexual men.

Immunology↗