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Linear regression in astronomy. II

A wide variety of least-squares linear regression procedures used in observational astronomy, particularly investigations of the cosmic distance scale, are presented and discussed. The classes of linear models considered are (1) unweighted regression lines, with bootstrap and jackknife resampling; (2) regression solutions when measurement error, in one or both variables, dominates the scatter; (3) methods to apply a calibration line to new data; (4) truncated regression models, which apply to flux-limited data sets; and (5) censored regression models, which apply when nondetections are present. For the calibration problem we develop two new procedures: a formula for the intercept offset between two parallel data sets, which propagates slope errors from one regression to the other; and a generalization of the Working-Hotelling confidence bands to nonstandard least-squares lines. They can provide improved error analysis for Faber-Jackson, Tully-Fisher, and similar cosmic distance scale relations.

Feigelson, Eric D.↗

An RR Lyrae period shift in terms of the Fourier parameter Phi sub 31

The Fourier phase parameter Phi sub 31 has been determined for RRc stars in five globular clusters, NGC 6171, M5, M3, M53, and M15. The results indicate that the RRc stars in a given cluster show a sequence of Phi sub 31 increasing with period, and that the higher the cluster metallicity, the higher the sequence lies in a plot of Phi sub 31 with period. The Phi sub 31 values for the stars in NGC 6171 and M5 presented here are based on observations made with the University of Toronto 0.61 m telescope at Las Campanas, Chile, while those for M3, M53, and M15 are based on published data. A bootstrap procedure has been used to establish the uncertainties in the Fourier parameters. The physical significance of the relationship among Phi sub 31, period, and metallicity is not yet understood. It will need to be tested with hydrodynamic pulsation models computed with new opacities.

Clement, Christine M.↗

The 1987-1988 advanced space design projects: Results from the fall semester of 1987 and the spring semester of 1988

Students in Aerospace Engineering (ASE) and Mechanical Engineering (ME) at the University of Texas at Austin completed eight separate design projects under the sponsorship of the NASA/USRA Advanced Space Design Program. During the Fall semester of 1987, ASE and ME students worked on various aspects of a 'bootstrap' lunar base. ASE students concentrated on the overall definition of the base while the ME team designed a convertible lunar lander lower stage. Six design projects were executed during the spring semester of 1988. Aerospace engineering students designed a fast Mars mission crew transfer vehicle, an Earth-orbiting transportation node to support the lunar base, a lunar base construction shack/initial habitat vehicle, and carried out a systems assessment aimed at arresting ozone depletion in the Earth's atmosphere. The ME students designed a lunar surface personnel navigation system and investigated radiation shielding structures for a lunar base. The design objectives, a summary of the results, and selected comments are given concerning each of the projects. Due to the number of projects completed, the reader should refer to the text of the final project reports for additional and detailed information.

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Preliminary design of a lunar construction utility vehicle

Construction of a lunar base, prior to manned occupancy, is one of the most demanding technological challenges facing space system designers today. A flexible lunar construction machine is needed that can be operated remotely and that can perform a variety of construction tasks over a wide range of lunar conditions. A preliminary lunar construction utility vehicle (LCUV) design has been developed as part of a capstone design course at Old Dominion University and is described in this summary report. The design requirements are taken from a 1988 USRA Summer Design Report entitled The Lunar Split Mission: A Robotic Constructed Lunar Base Scenario, and from the proceedings of a workshop hosted by United Technologies Corporation entitled Report of the In Situ Resources Utilization Workshop. The first report describes a bootstrap base concept in which a minimum of essential surface elements are delivered and configured such that minimum EVA is required to bring the initial base on-line. The base is to be built in three phases, the first of which will be unmanned, while the second and third will be manned. The key to these concepts is the development of a semiautonomous, telerobotic lunar construction utility vehicle (LCUV). The tasks required of this robotic vehicle during the phase 1 build-up are as follows: (1) surface element transportation, handling, and assembly; (2) soil excavation and movement for site preparation; (3) radiation protection and materials processing; and (4) repair and maintenance of surface elements. In order to meet the stated requirements, the LCUV must be: (1) transformable to perform a wide variety of tasks; (2) self supporting; (3) designed to allow for telerobotic control as well as autonomous operation; (4) able to transport one fully configured space station common module (SSCM); (5) upgradable to allow for future growth; and (6) easy to maintain.

Bryant, C. A.↗

Deep near-infrared survey of the Southern Sky (DENIS)

DENIS (Deep Near-Infrared Survey of the Southern Sky) will be the first complete census of astronomical sources in the near-infrared spectral range. The challenges of this novel survey are both scientific and technical. Phenomena radiating in the near-infrared range from brown dwarfs to galaxies in the early stages of cosmological evolution, the scientific exploitation of data relevant over such a wide range requires pooling expertise from several of the leading European astronomical centers. The technical challenges of a project which will provide an order of magnitude more sources than given by the IRAS space mission, and which will involve advanced data-handling and image-processing techniques, likewise require pooling of hardware and software resources, as well as of human expertise. The DENIS project team is composed of some 40 scientists, computer specialists, and engineers located in 5 European Community countries (France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, and Spain), with important contributions from specialists in Australia, Brazil, Chile, and Hungary. DENIS will survey the entire southern sky in 3 colors, namely in the I band at a wavelength of 0.8 micron, in the 1.25 micron J band, and in the 2.15 micron K' band. The sensitivity limits will be 18th magnitude in the I band, 16th in the J band, and 14.5th in the K' band. The angular resolution achieved will be 1 arcsecond in the I band, and 3.0 arcseconds in the J and K' bands. The European Southern Observatory 1 m telescope on La Silla will be dedicated to survey use during operations expected to last four years, commencing in late 1993. DENIS aims to provide the astronomical community with complete digitized infrared images of the full southern sky and a catalogue of extracted objects, both of the best quality and in readily accessible form. This will be achieved through dedicated software packages and specialized catalogues, and with assistance from the Leiden and Paris Data Analysis Centers. The data will be mailed on DAT tapes from La Silla to the two Data Analysis Centers for further processing. Two centers are necessary because of the shear quantity of data and because of the complementary roles the Centers will develop, each exploiting its own particular expertise. The Leiden Data Analysis Center (LDAC) will extract objects, establish their parameters, and archive them into a source catalogue. The LDAC will collaborate with the Groningen Space Research group that has gained experience in infrared image handling from the IRAS satellite. The Paris Data Analysis Center (PDAC) will be responsible for archiving and preprocessing the raw data to provide a homogeneous set of data suitable for further reduction in both the Leiden and Paris data analysis streams. The PDAC will also extract and archive images for the sources flagged by the LDAC as extended, and create a catalogue of galaxies. In exploiting the DENIS data we foresee the collaboration with other data analysis centers, such as the Observatoire de Lyon where the relevant DENIS catalogue of galaxies can be incorporated into their extragalactic database. The Point Sources and the Small Extended Sources catalogues could be incorporated in the Late Type Star database at Montpellier, and in the SIMBAD database as CDS. At Groningen the IRAS Point Source catalogue and/or image data can be merged with the DENIS catalogues. At Meudon algorithms and software will be developed with main goal assessing the limits reachable for the homogeneity and intrinsic consistency between the ensemble of the images in the data base (flat-fielding, relative positioning of the fields, bootstrapped flux calibration) but also for the data analysis.

Deul, E.↗

X ray studies of the Hyades cluster

The Hyades cluster occupies a unique position in both the history of astronomy and at the frontiers of contemporary astronomical research. At a distance of only 45 pc, the Hyades is the nearest star cluster in the Galaxy which is localized in the sky: the UMa cluster, which is closer, but much sparser, essentially surrounds the Solar neighborhood. The Hyades is the prototype cluster for distance determination using the 'moving-cluster' method, and thus serves to define the zero-age main sequence from which the cosmic distance scale is essentially bootstrapped. The Hyades age (0.6-0.7 Gyr), nearly 8 times younger than the Sun, guarantees the Hyades critical importance to studies of stellar evolution. The results of a complete survey of the Hyades cluster using the ROSAT All Sky Survey (RASS) are reported.

Stern, Robert A.↗

Deep HST imaging of distant weak radio and field galaxies

We present deep Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Wide-Field Camera (WFC) V- and I-band images of three distant weak radio galaxies with z = 0.311-2.390 and seven field galaxies with z = 0.131-0.58. The images were deconvolved with both the Lucy and multiresolution CLEAN methods, which yield a restoring Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM) of less than or equal to 0.2 sec, (nearly) preserve photons and signal-to-noise ratio at low spatial frequencies, and produce consistent light profiles down to our 2 sigma surface brightness sensitivity limit of V approximately 27.2 and I approximately 25.9 mag/sq arcsec. Multi-component image modeling was used to provide deconvolution-independent estimates of structural parameters for symmetric galaxies. We present 12-band (m(sub 2750) UBVRIgriJHK) photometry for a subset of the galaxies and bootstrap the unknown FOC/48 zero point at 2750 A in three independent ways (yielding m(sub 2750) = 21.34 +/- 0.09 mag for 1.0 e(-)/s). Two radio galaxies with z = 0.311 and 0.528, as well as one field galaxy with z = 0.58, have the colors and spectra of early-type galaxies, and a(exp 1/4)-like light profiles in the HST images. The two at z greater than 0.5 have little or no color gradients in V - I and are likely giant ellipticals, while the z = 0.311 radio galaxy has a dim exponential disk and is likely an S0. Six of the seven field galaxies have light profiles that indicate (small) inner bulges following a(exp 1/4) laws and outer exponential disks, both with little or no color gradients. These are (early-type) spiral galaxies with z = 0.131-0.528. About half have faint companions or bars. One shows lumpy structure, possibly a merger. The compact narrow-line galaxy 53W002 at z = 2.390 has less than or = 30% +/- 10% of its HST V and I flux in the central kiloparsec (due to its weak Active Galactic Nucleus (AGN)). Most of its light (V approximately equal to 23.3) occurs in a symmetric envelope with a regular a(exp 1/4)-like profile of effective radius a approximately equal to 1.1 sec (approximately equal to 12 kpc for H(sub 0) = 50, q(sub 0) = 0.1. Its (HST) V - I color varies at most from approximately 0.3 mag at a approximately equal to 0.2 sec to approximately 1.2 mag at a approximately greater than 0.4 sec, and possibly to approximately greater than 2.2 mag at a approximately greater than 1.2 sec. Together with its I - K color (approximately equal to 2.5 mag for a approximately greater than 1.0 sec-2.0 sec), this is consistent with an aging stellar population approximately 0.3-0.5 Gyr old in the galaxy center (a approx. less than 2 kpc radius), and possibly approximately 0.5-1.0 Gyr old at a approximately greater than 10 kpc radius. While its outer part may thus have started to collapse at z = 2.5-4, its inner part still is aligned with its redshifted Ly(alpha) cloud and its radio axis, possibly caused by star formation associated with the radio jet, or by reflection from its AGN cone.

Windhorst, R. A.↗

Partitioning of ocean and land uptake of CO2 as inferred by delta C-13 measurements from the NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network

Using delta C-13 measurements in atmospheric CO2 from a cooperative global air sampling network, we determined the partitioning of the net uptake of CO2 between ocean and land as a function of latitude and time. The majority of delta C-13 measurements were made at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) of the University of Colorado. We perform an inverse deconvolution of both CO2 and delta C-13 observations, using a two-dimensional model of atmospheric transport. Also, the discrimination against C-13 by plant photosynthesis, as a function of latitude and time, is calculated from global runs of the simple biosphere (SiB) model. Uncertainty due to the longitudinal structure of the data, which is not represented by the model, is studied through a bootstrap analysis by adding and omitting measurement sites. The resulting error estimates for our inferred sources and sinks are of the order of 1 GTC (1 GTC = 10(exp 15) gC). Such error bars do not reflect potential systematic errors arising from our estimates of the isotopic disequilibria between the atmosphere and the oceans and biosphere, which are estimated in a separate sensitivity analysis. With respect to global totals for 1992 we found that 3.2 GTC of carbon dissolved into the ocean and that 1.5 GTC were sequestered by land ecosystems. Northern hemisphere ocean gyres north of 15 deg N absorbed 2.7 GTC. The equatorial oceans between 10 deg S and 10 deg N were a net source to the atmosphere of 0.9 GTC. We obtained a sink of 1.6 GTC in southern ocean gyres south of 20 deg S, although the deconvolution is poorly constrained by sparse data coverage at high southern latitudes. The seasonal uptake of CO2 in the northern gyres appears to be correlated with a bloom of phytoplankton in surface waters. On land, northern temperate and boreal ecosystems between 35 deg N and 65 deg N were found to be a major sink of CO2 in 1992, as large as 3.5 GTC. Northern tropical ecosystems (equator-30 deg N) appear to be a net source to the source to the atmosphere of 2 GTC which could reflect biomass burning. A small sink, 0.3 GTC, was inferred for southern tropical ecosystems (30 deg S-equator).

Ciais, Philippe↗

In-flight demonstration of a Real-Time Flush Airdata Sensing (RT-FADS) system

A prototype real-time flush airdata sensing (RT-FADS) system has been developed and flight tested at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. This system uses a matrix of pressure orifices on the vehicle nose to estimate airdata parameters in real time using nonlinear regression. The algorithm is robust to sensor failures and noise in the measured pressures. The RT-FADS system has been calibrated using inertial trajectory measurements that were bootstrapped for atmospheric conditions using meteorological data. Mach numbers as high as 1.6 and angles of attack greater than 45 deg have been tested. The system performance has been evaluated by comparing the RT-FADS to the ship system airdata computer measurements to give a quantitative evaluation relative to an accepted measurement standard. Nominal agreements of approximately 0.003 in Mach number and 0.20 deg in angle of attack and angle of sideslip have been achieved.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗

Symmetry as Bias: Rediscovering Special Relativity

This paper describes a rational reconstruction of Einstein's discovery of special relativity, validated through an implementation: the Erlanger program. Einstein's discovery of special relativity revolutionized both the content of physics and the research strategy used by theoretical physicists. This research strategy entails a mutual bootstrapping process between a hypothesis space for biases, defined through different postulated symmetries of the universe, and a hypothesis space for physical theories. The invariance principle mutually constrains these two spaces. The invariance principle enables detecting when an evolving physical theory becomes inconsistent with its bias, and also when the biases for theories describing different phenomena are inconsistent. Structural properties of the invariance principle facilitate generating a new bias when an inconsistency is detected. After a new bias is generated. this principle facilitates reformulating the old, inconsistent theory by treating the latter as a limiting approximation. The structural properties of the invariance principle can be suitably generalized to other types of biases to enable primal-dual learning.

Lowry, Michael R.↗

Error Control Coding Techniques for Space and Satellite Communications

Bootstrap Hybrid Decoding (BHD) (Jelinek and Cocke, 1971) is a coding/decoding scheme that adds extra redundancy to a set of convolutionally encoded codewords and uses this redundancy to provide reliability information to a sequential decoder. Theoretical results indicate that bit error probability performance (BER) of BHD is close to that of Turbo-codes, without some of their drawbacks. In this report we study the use of the Multiple Stack Algorithm (MSA) (Chevillat and Costello, Jr., 1977) as the underlying sequential decoding algorithm in BHD, which makes possible an iterative version of BHD.

Costello, Daniel J., Jr.↗

SRM Internal Flow Tests and Computational Fluid Dynamic Analysis: Titan, ASRM, and Subscale Motor Analyses - Volume 3

A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis has been performed on the aft slot region of the Titan 4 Solid Rocket Motor Upgrade (SRMU). This analysis was performed in conjunction with MSFC structural modeling of the propellant grain to determine if the flow field induced stresses would adversely alter the propellant geometry to the extent of causing motor failure. The results of the coupled CFD/stress analysis have shown that there is a continual increase of flow field resistance at the aft slot due to the aft segment propellant grain being progressively moved radially toward the centerline of the motor port. This 'bootstrapping' effect between grain radial movement and internal flow resistance is conducive to causing a rapid motor failure.

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Summary of Research Report Cooperative Agreement

Several areas of work related to commercialization of technology developed at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) are discussed in this report. The areas are: (1) perform a feasibility study to develop a software commercialization center is at ARC; (2) perform preliminary work for formation of joint development of sensor technology for telemedicine applications; (3) development of a discovery interview process and staff training to assist the commercialization of technology developed at Ames, specifically aimed at working with researchers; (4) develop partners to further develop and commercialize image compression technology developed at AMES; (5) assist efforts to commercialize a software technology which imparts the ability to establish relevance-based retrieval in the handling of large repositories of information; (6) explore the development of cryocooler technology using pulse tube refrigeration; (7) assess interest in commercialization of a new method of measuring skin friction drag on wind tunnel models using liquid crystal material; (8) attempt to incorporate emerging technologies in the infrastructure of natural hazards mitigation; and (9) forming a nonprofit organization, "The Bootstrap Alliance", whose mission is to promote the use of digital technologies for collaborative problem solving. The results of these initiatives are discussed.

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Behavior of Molecules on Interstellar Grains: Application of the Langevin Equation and Iterative Extended Huckel

The Langevin equation was used to explore an adsorbate desorption mechanism. Calculations were performed using iterative extended Huckel on a silica model site with various small adsorbates, e.g., H, CH, OH, NO, CO. It was found that barriers to free traversal from one site to another are substantial (approximately 3 - 10 eV). A bootstrap desorption mechanism for some molecules in the process of forming at a site also became apparent from the calculations. The desorption mechanisms appear to be somewhat balanced by a counterforce--the attraction of sites for the newly desorbed molecule. The order of attraction to a silica grain site for the diatomic molecules considered was OH > CH > CO > NO, when these entities were sufficiently distant. The nature of the silica grain and that of the "cold" desorption mechanism, when considered together, suggest that the abundance of very small grains might be less common than anticipated.

Aronowitz. Sheldon↗

Satellite Data Sets in the Polar Regions

We have generated about two decades of consistently derived geophysical parameters in the polar regions. The key parameters are sea ice concentration, surface temperature, albedo, and cloud cover statistics. Sea ice concentrations were derived from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) data and the Special Scanning Cl Microwave Imager (SSM/I) data from several platforms using the enhanced Bootstrap Algorithm for the period 1978 through 1999. The new algorithm reduces the errors associated with spatial and temporal variations in the emissivity and surface temperatures of sea ice. Also, bad data at ocean/land interfaces are identified and deleted in an unsupervised manner. Surface ice temperature, albedo and cloud cover statistics are derived simultaneously from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data from 1981 through 1999 and mapped at a higher resolution but the same format as the ice concentration data. The technique makes use these co-registered ice concentration maps to enable cloud masking to be done separately for open ocean, sea ice and land areas. The effect of inversion is minimized by taking into consideration the expected changes in the effect of inversion with altitude, especially in the Antarctic. A technique for ice type regional classification has also been developed using multichannel cluster analysis and a neural network. This provide a means to identify large areas of thin ice, first year ice, and older ice types. The data sets have been shown to be coherent with each other and provide a powerful tool for in depth studies of the currently changing Arctic and Antarctic environment.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗

Robosphere1: Building A Self-Sustaining Robotic Ecology for Mars Exploration

Robotic exploration of Mars has been a "one shot" approach where each surface mission is planned typically with a rover that will perform a series of experiments for a few weeks or months, until the robot becomes unable to operate in the harsh Mars conditions and simply "dies". It would clearly be desirable to have robots on Mars that can last for much longer periods of time, I propose that there is an approach to sustained robotic exploration that can also pave the way to future human presence. The idea is to continue building a robotic infrastructure with every mission we send. The approach is to built a team of modular robots that could repair individual members when they break down. We could "seed" areas of interest with sturdy power stations (solar, chemical) that teams of robots could use to recharge themselves. We could also seed parts and modules the robots could access for self-repair. No mission could really "fail" if we simply keep adding to and maintaining the existing infrastructure. Simply landing a package of parts will be a success. In time we create a loose infrastructure that can be controlled and augmented from earth on a continuing basis, and which could eventually pave the way for human exploration. I propose that we could begin to build this infrastructure from relatively simple modular robots. Imagine 2 "spider-like" robots built out of small modular snap-in pieces, a bin of these pieces and a bin of snap-in end effectors. One of the spiders breaks down, i.e. one of its modules needs to be replaced. The second spider comes to the rescue and helps the first one replace the broken module. Assuming the input of fresh modules, this process can continue indefinetly. Now start separating robotic explorers from robotic "mechanics", start adding, a category of mechanics that are able to fix at least some of the broken modules (and which in turn can be fixed by the original mechanics), The need for a fresh influx of modules is thus reduced. I submit that we could bootstrap a robotic ecology until it needs very little material from earth and can rely mostly on in-situ resources., We can experiment with this concept in an earthbound facility that can also simulate Mars conditions. I propose that we call this facility Robosphere1.

Colombano, Silvano P.↗

Hemichordates and the Origin of Chordates

At the start of the period of the NASA grant three years ago, we had no information on the organization and development of the body axis of the hemichordate, Saccoglossus kowalevskii. Now we have substantial findings about the anteroposterior axis and dorsoventral axis, and based on this information, we have new insights about the origin of chordates from ancestral deuterostomes. We found ways to obtain and preserve large numbers of embryos and hatched juveniles. We can now collect about 40,000 embryos in the month of September, the time of S. kowalevskii spawning at Woods Hole. Excellent cDNA libraries were prepared from three developmental stages. From these libraries, we directly isolated about 30 gene ortholog sequences by screening and pcr techniques, all of these sequences of interest in the inquiry about the animal's organization and development. We also performed a mid-sized EST project (60,000 randomly picked clones, many of these arrayed). About half of these have been analyzed so far by blastx and are suitable for direct use of clones. We have obtained about 50 interesting sequences from this set. The rest still await analysis. Thus, at this time we have isolated orthologs of 80 genes that are known to be expressed in chordates in conserved domains and known to have interesting roles in chordate organization and development. The orthology of the S. kowalevskii sequences has been verified by neighbor joining and parsimony methods, with bootstrap estimates of validity. The S. kowalevskii sequences cluster with other deuterostome sequences, namely, other hemichordates, echinoderms, ascidians, amphioxus, or vertebrates, depending on what sequences are available in the database for comparison. We have used these sequences to do high quality in situ hybridization on S. kowalevskii embryos, and the results can be divided into three sections-those concerning the anteroposterior axis of S. kowalevskii in comparison to the same axis of chordates, those concerning the dorsoventral axis of S. kowalevskii in comparison to the same axis of chordates, and those concerning the signals and transcription factors found in the endoderm, of S. kowalevskii compared to the signals and transcription factors in the endo-mesodermal cells of Spemann's organizer of chordates.

Gerhart, John↗

A Step Beyond Simple Keyword Searches: Services Enabled by a Full Content Digital Journal Archive

The problems of managing and searching large archives of scientific journal articles can potentially be addressed through data mining and statistical techniques matured primarily for quantitative scientific data analysis. A journal paper could be represented by a multivariate descriptor, e.g., the occurrence counts of a number key technical terms or phrases (keywords), perhaps derived from a controlled vocabulary ( e . g . , the American Meteorological Society's Glossary of Meteorology) or bootstrapped from the journal archive itself. With this technique, conventional statistical classification tools can be leveraged to address challenges faced by both scientists and professional societies in knowledge management. For example, cluster analyses can be used to find bundles of "most-related" papers, and address the issue of journal bifurcation (when is a new journal necessary, and what topics should it encompass). Similarly, neural networks can be trained to predict the optimal journal (within a society's collection) in which a newly submitted paper should be published. Comparable techniques could enable very powerful end-user tools for journal searches, all premised on the view of a paper as a data point in a multidimensional descriptor space, e.g.: "find papers most similar to the one I am reading", "build a personalized subscription service, based on the content of the papers I am interested in, rather than preselected keywords", "find suitable reviewers, based on the content of their own published works", etc. Such services may represent the next "quantum leap" beyond the rudimentary search interfaces currently provided to end-users, as well as a compelling value-added component needed to bridge the print-to-digital-medium gap, and help stabilize professional societies' revenue stream during the print-to-digital transition.

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗