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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian calibration of strength model parameters from Taylor impact data

Materials strength plays a key role in determining the mechanical response of engineered structures. As such, accurate strength models are crucial in simulations involving complex loading conditions, particularly when deformation in the plastic regime is deemed important. In this work, a Gaussian process based surrogate for a finite element simulation of a Taylor impact test is developed and used for Bayesian calibration of the Preston–Tonks–Wallace strength model. Here, the surrogate model is shown to closely approximate the salient features of the Taylor cylinder deformation and is validated against simulation output before being used in the strength model calibration routine. The results show that Taylor impact test data can be used in the calibration of constitutive equations through the use of a combination of data science techniques, namely Gaussian processes and Bayesian inference.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic model development and Bayesian uncertainty quantification for the complete reduction of Fe-based oxygen carriers with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 for chemical looping combustion

In this work, three kinetic models are developed and calibrated for the complete multi-step reduction of an Fe-based oxygen carrier (OC) particle with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 , using data from thermogravimetric analysis. The complete reduction rate profiles exhibit complex dynamics whose trajectory is significantly different depending on the reducing gas. A Bayesian model building and parameter estimation framework is applied for simultaneous parameter and model structure uncertainty quantification. The final models show excellent agreement between model predictions and calibration data, as well as new data not used for calibration (for the reduction of the OC with CH 4 ). Parameter uncertainty is quantified by determining joint posterior distribution, and model structure uncertainty is addressed by incorporating Gaussian process stochastic functions (represented by Bayesian smoothing splines) into the kinetic models. The final kinetic models with discrepancy functions are readily employable in equation-oriented simulation and optimization platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applications of emulation and Bayesian methods in heavy-ion physics

Abstract Heavy-ion collisions provide a window into the properties of many-body systems of deconfined quarks and gluons. Understanding the collective properties of quarks and gluons is possible by comparing models of heavy-ion collisions to measurements of the distribution of particles produced at the end of the collisions. These model-to-data comparisons are extremely challenging, however, because of the complexity of the models, the large amount of experimental data, and their uncertainties. Bayesian inference provides a rigorous statistical framework to constrain the properties of nuclear matter by systematically comparing models and measurements. This review covers model emulation and Bayesian methods as applied to model-to-data comparisons in heavy-ion collisions. Replacing the model outputs (observables) with Gaussian process emulators is key to the Bayesian approach currently used in the field, and both current uses of emulators and related recent developments are reviewed. The general principles of Bayesian inference are then discussed along with other Bayesian methods, followed by a systematic comparison of seven recent Bayesian analyses that studied quark-gluon plasma properties, such as the shear and bulk viscosities. The latter comparison is used to illustrate sources of differences in analyses, and what it can teach us for future studies.

Paquet, Jean-François (ORCID:0000000187368171)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Solving Stochastic Inverse Problems for Property–Structure Linkages Using Data-Consistent Inversion and Machine Learning

Determining process–structure–property linkages is one of the key objectives in material science, and uncertainty quantification plays a critical role in understanding both process–structure and structure–property linkages. In this work, we seek to learn a distribution of microstructure parameters that are consistent in the sense that the forward propagation of this distribution through a crystal plasticity finite element model matches a target distribution on materials properties. This stochastic inversion formulation infers a distribution of acceptable/consistent microstructures, as opposed to a deterministic solution, which expands the range of feasible designs in a probabilistic manner. Furthermore, to solve this stochastic inverse problem, we employ a recently developed uncertainty quantification framework based on push-forward probability measures, which combines techniques from measure theory and Bayes’ rule to define a unique and numerically stable solution. This approach requires making an initial prediction using an initial guess for the distribution on model inputs and solving a stochastic forward problem. To reduce the computational burden in solving both stochastic forward and stochastic inverse problems, we combine this approach with a machine learning Bayesian regression model based on Gaussian processes and demonstrate the proposed methodology on two representative case studies in structure–property linkages.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian inference of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections from HADES proton flow data

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian Process emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions at intermediate energies, we infer from the HADES proton flow data the posterior probability distribution functions of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section modification factor X with respect to free-space and the corresponding incompressibility K of nuclear matter as well as their correlation function. In conclusion, the mean value of X is found to be $X$ = $1.32_ {+0.28} ^ {-0.40} $ at 68% confidence level assuming the nuclear incompressibility K will not exceed 400 MeV, providing circumstantial evidence for enhanced baryon-braryon scattering cross sections in hot and dense nuclear matter.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multifidelity Bayesian optimization method for inertial confinement fusion design

Due to their cost, experiments for inertial confinement fusion (ICF) heavily rely on numerical simulations to guide design. As simulation technology progresses, so too can the fidelity of models used to plan for new experiments. However, these high-fidelity models are by themselves insufficient for optimal experimental design, because their computational cost remains too high to efficiently and effectively explore the numerous parameters required to describe a typical experiment. Therefore, traditionally, ICF design has relied on low-fidelity modeling to initially identify potentially interesting design regions, which are then subsequently explored via selected high-fidelity modeling. In this paper, we demonstrate that this two-step approach can be insufficient: even for simple design problems, a two-step optimization strategy can lead high-fidelity searching toward incorrect regions and consequently waste computational resources on parameter regimes far away from the true optimal solution. We reveal that a primary cause of this behavior in ICF design problems is the presence of low-fidelity optima in different regions of the parameter space far away from high-fidelity optima. To address this issue, we propose an iterative multifidelity Bayesian optimization method based on Gaussian Process Regression that leverages both low- and high-fidelity models simultaneously. We demonstrate, using both two- and eight-dimensional ICF test problems, that our algorithm can effectively utilize both low-fidelity and high-fidelity models to refine the designs. This approach proves to be more efficient than relying solely on high-fidelity modeling for optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of differential scanning calorimetry data for aged plutonium

Differential scanning calorimetry data for samples of a 52 year old plutonium alloy with 3.3 at. % Ga that were heated beyond the melting point is analyzed using transition state theory to find activation energies for the δ to ε and ε to liquid phase transitions. A Bayesian statistical method involving a Gaussian process model is used to find mean values and confidence intervals for the activation energies. The activation energy for the δ to ε phase transition increases by 3.3 ± 3.8% per decade, relative to the case when all age related plutonium lattice point defects have been removed through annealing. The corresponding increase in activation energy for the ε to liquid transition is shown to be 7.1 ± 1.8% per decade. It is postulated that the change in activation energy with age for both phase transitions is caused, in part, by the accumulation of the same type of lattice point defects associated with the observed increase in elastic bulk modulus over time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolution of in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross sections and stiffness of dense nuclear matter from Bayesian analyses of FOPI proton-flow excitation functions

Within a Bayesian statistical framework using a Gaussian process (GP) emulator for an isospin-dependent Boltzmann-Uehling-Uhlenbeck (IBUU) transport model simulator of heavy-ion reactions with momentum-independent Skyrme interactions, we infer from the proton directed and elliptical flow in mid-central Au + Au reactions, measured at beam energies from 150 to 1200 MeV/nucleon by the FOPI Collaboration, the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of the in-medium baryon-baryon scattering cross section (BBSCS) modification factor 𝑋 (with respect to their free-space values) and the stiffness parameter 𝐾 of dense nuclear matter. Here, we find that the most probable value of 𝑋 evolves from around 0.7 to 1.0 as the beam energy 𝐸 beam /𝐴 increases. On the other hand, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) may have dual peaks having roughly the same height or extended shoulders at high 𝐾 values. More quantitatively, the posterior PDF⁡(𝐾) changes from having a major peak around 220 MeV, characterizing a soft EOS in the reaction at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 = 150 MeV, to one that peaks around 320 MeV, indicating a stiff EOS in the reactions at 𝐸 beam /𝐴 higher than about 600 MeV. The transition from soft to stiff happens in mid-central Au + Au reactions at beam energies around 250 MeV/nucleon in which 𝐾 = 220 MeV and 𝐾 = 320 MeV are approximately equally probable. Altogether, the FOPI proton-flow excitation function data indicate a gradual hardening of hot and dense nuclear matter as its density and temperature increase in reactions with higher beam energies.

nuclear matter↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian framework for adsorption energy prediction on bimetallic alloy catalysts

Abstract For high-throughput screening of materials for heterogeneous catalysis, scaling relations provides an efficient scheme to estimate the chemisorption energies of hydrogenated species. However, conditioning on a single descriptor ignores the model uncertainty and leads to suboptimal prediction of the chemisorption energy. In this article, we extend the single descriptor linear scaling relation to a multi-descriptor linear regression models to leverage the correlation between adsorption energy of any two pair of adsorbates. With a large dataset, we use Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) as the model evidence to select the best linear regression model. Furthermore, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) based on the meaningful convolution of physical properties of the metal-adsorbate complex can be used to predict the baseline residual of the selected model. This integrated Bayesian model selection and Gaussian process regression, dubbed as residual learning, can achieve performance comparable to standard DFT error (0.1 eV) for most adsorbate system. For sparse and small datasets, we propose an ad hoc Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to make a robust prediction. With this Bayesian framework, we significantly reduce the model uncertainty and improve the prediction accuracy. The possibilities of the framework for high-throughput catalytic materials exploration in a realistic setting is illustrated using large and small sets of both dense and sparse simulated dataset generated from a public database of bimetallic alloys available in Catalysis-Hub.org.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constrained Bayesian optimization of criticality experiments

The design of criticality experiments is typically an iterative process that employs a Monte Carlo transport code. The goal is to find a design that optimizes some variable, like the sensitivity of a response to a cross section, while simultaneously ensuring criticality. The high fidelity of the Monte Carlo code is a great asset, but it makes exploring the design space computationally expensive. Herein, we present how a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm can be used to efficiently design a criticality experiment. It uses Gaussian processes as a surrogate model to probe the design space and to reduce the number of code executions that are needed to find the optimum. Furthermore, we demonstrate constrained Bayesian optimization with a Pu-239/polyethylene solution system and a TEX experiment that is designed for criticality safety validation of a nuclear waste model at the Hanford Site. For both systems, a global optimum was found within 75 Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modelling stellar activity with Gaussian process regression networks

ABSTRACT Stellar photospheric activity is known to limit the detection and characterization of extrasolar planets. In particular, the study of Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars requires data analysis methods that can accurately model the stellar activity phenomena affecting radial velocity (RV) measurements. Gaussian Process Regression Networks (GPRNs) offer a principled approach to the analysis of simultaneous time series, combining the structural properties of Bayesian neural networks with the non-parametric flexibility of Gaussian Processes. Using HARPS-N solar spectroscopic observations encompassing three years, we demonstrate that this framework is capable of jointly modelling RV data and traditional stellar activity indicators. Although we consider only the simplest GPRN configuration, we are able to describe the behaviour of solar RV data at least as accurately as previously published methods. We confirm the correlation between the RV and stellar activity time series reaches a maximum at separations of a few days, and find evidence of non-stationary behaviour in the time series, associated with an approaching solar activity minimum.

Camacho, J. D. (ORCID:0000000151215560)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization on Manifolds via Graph Gaussian Processes

This paper integrates manifold learning techniques within a Gaussian process upper confidence bound algorithm to optimize an objective function on a manifold. Our approach is motivated by applications where a full representation of the manifold is not available and querying the objective is expensive. We rely on a point cloud of manifold samples to define a graph Gaussian process surrogate model for the objective. Query points are sequentially chosen using the posterior distribution of the surrogate model given all previous queries. We establish regret bounds in terms of the number of queries and the size of the point cloud. Several numerical examples complement the theory and illustrate the performance of our method.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptive Discovery and Mixed-Variable Optimization of Next Generation Synthesizable Microelectronic Materials

Design of new microelectronic materials is characterized by several challenges such as high-dimensionality of the atomic structure-composition variable space, formidable cost of directly using high-fidelity simulations for design optimization, dispersity in literature-reported similar materials and synthesis methods, complex physical mechanisms, and mixed qualitative and quantitative design variables that lead to a disjointed design space. Even though machine learning (ML) techniques have been employed to expedite materials innovation, existing methods treat ML and design optimization as two separate processes, failing to resolve the fundamental challenges associated with high dimensionality and mixed-variable complexity. We have developed a ML enhanced mixed-variable material design optimization framework to efficiently extract useful information from existing data in literature and physics-based simulations to guide the autonomous search for optimal materials. Our proposed framework is composed of four computational modules: (1) a natural language processing (NLP) based virtual screening module, (2) classification based concept exploration module, (3) a density functional theory (DFT)-based high-fidelity evaluation model, and (4) a novel latent-variable Gaussian process (LVGP) ML model for mixed-variable problems with uncertainty quantification, which seamlessly integrates with Bayesian Optimization (BO) and achieves superb efficiency through embedded physics-based dimension reduction. Our approach is demonstrated and validated using the testbed of functional materials exhibiting metal-insulation transitions (MITs), with the targeted reversible resistivity changes (∼10^5) near room temperature. At the end of the 30-month project, we have developed a series of new ML techniques using NLP, conditional variational autoencoders, active learning, latent-variable Gaussian processes, integrated with Bayesian optimization. Our project has resulted in new predicted MITs compounds and improved understanding of MITs microscopic mechanisms, which in turn will revolutionize microelectronics science to provide energy-saving solutions. Our research has improved both creativity and efficiency in transforming rare-event discoveries of new functional materials to persistent innovations. In addition to open-sourcing the online MIT database and the classification model, the LVGP open source code has been downloaded more than 15,000 times within two years. More than 40 MIT compounds have been identified and many have been pursued experimentally via collaborators. The research results are published in close to 20 collaborative papers in high-impact journals, such as Chem. Mater., Appl. Phys. Rev., Sci. Rep., among others of design space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Gaussian Process Enhancement to Linear Parameter Varying Models

Simulation and analysis for modern engineering systems now routinely requires the merging of multiple disciplines, physical-domains, time-scales, and data sets — all at ever increasing levels. These capabilities are especially needed in the domain of Advanced Air Mobility, where rapidly emerging vehicle designs are significantly more complex, while having to be both cost-effective and safe. To meet these engineering challenges, machine learning methods are an attractive option for merging models and data across multiple areas while providing uncertainty quantification and maintaining computational efficiency. This paper examines the use of Gaussian process machine learning to generalize and enhance the commonly used class of quasi-Linear Parameter Varying models for fast full-envelope simulation while also supporting control system design and analysis with model uncertainty. Gaussian process machine learning is selected because it: can fuse multiple data sets, enables an easy trade-off between data fitting and smoothing, provides model uncertainty quantification, scales well with increasing complexity, and does not generally require starting from a large training data set. To demonstrate the benefits of the approach, a robust stability analysis with Gaussian process uncertainty is shown for a NASA reference design of an electric quad-rotor air-taxi concept vehicle with motor parameter uncertainty.

Gaussian Process↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constrained Bayesian Optimization of Criticality Experiments at LLNL [Slides]

The design of criticality experiments is typically an iterative process that employs a Monte Carlo transport code. The goal is to find a design that optimizes some variable, like the sensitivity of a response to a cross section, while simultaneously ensuring criticality. The high fidelity of the Monte Carlo code is a great asset, but it makes exploring the design space computationally expensive. Herein, we present how a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm can be used to efficiently design a criticality experiment. It uses Gaussian processes as a surrogate model to probe the design space and to reduce the number of code executions that are needed to find the optimum. We demonstrate constrained Bayesian optimization with a Pu-239/polyethylene solution system and a TEX experiment that is designed for critical ity safety validation of a nuclear waste model at the Hanford Site. For both systems, a global optimum was found within 75 Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Constrained Bayesian Optimization of Criticality Experiments [Slides]

The design of criticality experiments is typically an iterative process that employs a Monte Carlo transport code. The goal is to find a design that optimizes some variable, like the sensitivity of a response to a cross section, while simultaneously ensuring criticality. The high fidelity of the Monte Carlo code is a great asset, but it makes exploring the design space computationally expensive. Herein, we present how a constrained Bayesian optimization algorithm can be used to efficiently design a criticality experiment. It uses Gaussian processes as a surrogate model to probe the design space and to reduce the number of code executions that are needed to find the optimum. We demonstrate constrained Bayesian optimization with a Pu-239/polyethylene solution system and a TEX experiment that is designed for criticality safety validation of a nuclear waste model at the Hanford Site. For both systems, a global optimum was found within 75 Monte Carlo simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Performance evaluation of cosmic ray muon trajectory estimation algorithms

Muons, being elementary particles with minimal interaction with nuclear materials and abundant at sea level, have sparked interest in utilizing them for imaging various applications, such as mining [Borselli et al., Sci. Rep. 12, 22329 (2022)], volcano imaging [Nagamine et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A, 356, 585(1995)], and underground tunnel detection [Guardincerri et al., Pure Appl. Geophys. 174, 2133 (2017)]. Recently, their use in nuclear nonproliferation and safeguard verification has gained attention, particularly in cargo screening for nuclear waste smuggling [Baesso et al., J. Instrum. 9, C10041 (2014)], source localization [L. J. Schultz et al., Nucl. Instrum. Meth. A 519, 687 (2004)], and locating nuclear fuel debris in reactors [Borozdin et al., Phys. Rev. Let. 109, 152501 (2012)]. However, the resolution of muon image reconstruction techniques is limited due to multiple Coulomb scattering (MCS) within the target object. To achieve robust muon tomography, it is crucial to develop efficient and flexible physics-based algorithms that can model the MCS process accurately and estimate the most probable trajectory of muons as they pass through the target object. To address this limitation, in this study, a novel algorithmic approach utilizing the Bayesian probability theory and Gaussian approximation of MCS is chosen. Different energy levels, materials, and target sizes were considered in the evaluations. The results demonstrate that the Generalized Muon Trajectory Estimation (GMTE) algorithm offers significant improvements over currently used algorithms. Across all test scenarios, the GMTE algorithm demonstrated ~50% and 38% increase in precision compared to Straight Line Path (SLP) and Point of Closest Approach (PoCA) algorithms, respectively. Furthermore, it exhibited 10%–35% and 10%–15% increases in muon flux utilization for high and medium Z materials, respectively, compared to the PoCA algorithm. In conclusion, the extensive simulations confirm the enhanced performance and efficiency of the GMTE algorithm, offering improved resolution and reduced measurement time for cosmic ray muon imaging compared to the current SLP and PoCA algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗