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Assimilation of Multi-Frequency, Multi-Polarization Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Observations in North America over Snow-Covered Regions Using Support Vector Machines

Accurately estimating the mass of water within a snowpack (a.k.a. snow water equivalent, or SWE) across regional or continental scales is a challenge. In order to overcome some of the limitations in traditional SWE retrieval algorithms or radiative transfer-based snow emission models, this study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) to merge an advanced land surface model within a radiance emission (i.e., brightness temperature) assimilation framework. The goal of direct radiance assimilation is preferable as it avoids inconsistencies in the use of ancillary data between the assimilation system and the independently-generated geophysical retrieval. The impact of assimilating multiple observations simultaneously at different frequency and polarization combinations is then evaluated via comparisons to state-of-the-art SWE and snow depth products as well as available ground-based measurements across North America for the years 2002 through 2011. It is found that assimilation-derived estimates (relative to estimates without assimilation) tend to better agree with state-of-the-art snow products. In addition, an overall improvement in goodness-of-fit statistics for snow estimates is achieved via assimilation when compared against ground-based snow measurements. In addition, these improvements in snow are shown to translate into improvements in streamflow predictions. Specifically, 11 out of the 13 major snow-dominated basins investigated have improved cumulative runoff estimates versus ground-based discharge measurements compared to the no-assimilation scenario. It is proven that a SVM can serve as an efficient and effective observation operator for a snow mass analysis within a radiance assimilation system.

Xue, Yuan

Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture for Improved Atmospheric Reanalyses

A newly developed, weakly coupled land and atmosphere data assimilation system for NASA’s Global Earth Observing System model is presented, and used to demonstrate the benefit of assimilating satellite soil moisture into an atmospheric reanalysis. Specifically, Advanced Scatterometer and Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity soil moisture retrievals are assimilated into a system that uses the same model, atmospheric assimilation system, and atmospheric observations as the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). The atmosphere is sensitive to soil moisture only under certain conditions. Hence, while the globally averaged model improvements were small, regionally, the soil moisture assimilation induced some substantial improvements. For example, in a large region spanning from western Europe across southern Russia, the soil moisture assimilation decreased the RMSE against independent station observations of daily maximum 2-m temperature (T(sup 2m, sub max)) by up to 0.4 K, and of 2-m specific humidity (q(exp 2m)) by up to 0.5 g/kg. Over all available stations, the mean T(sup 2m, sub max) RMSE was reduced from 2.82 to 2.79 K, while the mean q(exp 2m) RMSE was reduced from 1.25 to 1.20 g/kg. The soil moisture assimilation also reduced the mean RMSE across 29 flux tower sites from 34.2 to 32.6 Wm(exp −2) for latent heating, and from 37.7 to 36.5 Wm(exp −2) for sensible heating. For all variables evaluated, the soil moisture assimilation improved the model at monthly to seasonal, rather than daily, time scales. Based on the above experiments, it is recommended that satellite soil moisture be assimilated into future reanalyses, including the follow-on to MERRA-2.

Clara Draper

The Impact of All-Sky Hyperspectral Infrared Radiance Assimilation on the Simulation and Forecast of Hurricane Sally in GEOS

Hyperspectral infrared (IR) radiance observations have been one of the major data sources assimilated in the data assimilation system over the last 20 years. However, observations peaking in the lower and mid-troposphere are underutilized in clear-sky radiance data assimilation as the quality control procedure removes a significant portion of cloud-affected observations from the assimilation. To include these cloud-affected observations, one approach is to assimilate them directly under all-sky conditions. The framework for all-sky assimilation of hyperspectral IR radiance observations has been developed in GEOS. The preliminary evaluation of simulated cloud-affected IR observations has been conducted, along with the corresponding sensitivities with respect to all hydrometeors. The symmetric cloud effect has been used as a cloud proxy in the observation error modeling, providing a balanced representation that mitigates the discrepancies between observations and model simulations for IR all-sky assimilation. The observation errors vary for different cloud conditions and have been modeled as cloud amount dependent and inter-channel correlated. Preliminary evaluation of model simulations for IR all-sky assimilation indicates that the simulated brightness temperature tends to have broader structures and lacks small-scale details. Excessive clouds generated by the model are also observed. To address this issue, Hurricane Sally (2020), which formed near the Bahamas, is used as a case study. Several cloud overlap schemes and cloud lookup tables (LUTs), along with other important aspects of all-sky IR radiance assimilation, will be evaluated and tested, aiming to improve the impact on Hurricane Sally's simulation and forecast.

Wei Gu

Impact of Surface Albedo Assimilation on Snow Estimation

Surface albedo has a significant impact in determining the amount of available net radiation at the surface and the evolution of surface water and energy budget components. The snow accumulation and timing of melt, in particular, are directly impacted by the changes in land surface albedo. This study presents an evaluation of the impact of assimilating Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-based surface albedo estimates in the Noah multi-parameterization (Noah-MP) land surface model, over the continental US during the time period from 2000 to 2017. The evaluation of simulated snow depth and snow cover fields show that significant improvements from data assimilation (DA) are obtained over the High Plains and parts of the Rocky Mountains. Earlier snowmelt and reduced agreements with reference snow depth measurements, primarily over the Northeast US, are also observed due to albedo DA. Most improvements from assimilation are observed over locations with moderate vegetation and lower elevation. The aggregate impact on evapotranspiration and runoff from assimilation is found to be marginal. This study also evaluates the relative and joint utility of assimilating fractional snow cover and surface albedo measurements. Relative to surface albedo assimilation, fractional snow cover assimilation is found to provide smaller improvements in the simulated snow depth fields. The configuration that jointly assimilates surface albedo and fractional snow cover measurements is found to provide the most beneficial improvements compared to the univariate DA configurations for surface albedo or fractional snow cover. Overall, the study also points to the need for improving the albedo formulations in land surface models and the incorporation of observational uncertainties within albedo DA configurations.

surface albedo

Toward Improving Short-Term Predictions of Fine Particulate Matter Over the United States Via Assimilation of Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth Retrievals

This study develops a new approach to improve simulations of the particulate matter of aerodynamic diameter smaller than 2.5μm (PM2.5) in the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model via assimilation of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical depth(AOD) retrievals using the Grid point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system. In contrast to previous studies that only consider errors due to transport, our computation of the background error covariance matrix incorporates uncertainties in anthropogenic emissions. To understand the impact of this approach, three experiments (one background and two assimilations) are performed over the contiguous United States(CONUS) from 15 July to 14 August 2014. The background CMAQ experiment significantly underestimates both the MODIS AOD and surface PM2.5levels. MODIS AOD assimilation pushes both the CMAQ AOD and surface PM2.5distributions toward the observed distributions, but CMAQ still underestimates the observations. Averaged over CONUS, the two assimilation experiments with and without including the anthropogenic emission uncertainties improve the correlation coefficient between the model and independent observations of PM2.5 by ~67% and ~48%, respectively, and reduces the mean bias by ~38% and~10%, respectively. The assimilation improves the model performance everywhere over CONUS, except the New York and Wisconsin, where CMAQ overestimates the observed PM2.5during nighttime after assimilation likely because of overcorrection of aerosol mass concentrations by the AOD assimilation. Future work should incorporate uncertainties in other processes (biomass burning and biogenic emissions, deposition, chemistry, transport, and boundary conditions) to further enhance the value of assimilating spaceborne AOD retrievals.

Assimilation

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics

High resolution assimilation of multiple satellite retrievals with emissions adjustment to improve air quality forecasting with WRF-Chem/DART

We will present results from medium (15km, 6hr cycling) and high (4 km, 6 hr cycling) spatiotemporal resolution applications of the WRF-Chem/DART ensemble, regional, air quality (AQ) forecast/assimilation system.The medium-resolution setup is applied to the Discover AQ/Front Range Air Pollution and Photochemistry Experiment (FRAPPE) domain from July 14 to July 29, 2014. The high-resolution setup is applied to a Colorado domain from July 14 to July 29, 2020. For the FRAPPE application, we assimilate MOPITT CO; IASI CO;MODIS AOD; OMI O3, NO2; and AirNow CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5. For the Colorado application, we assimilate the same MOPITT, MODIS, and AirNow constituents as in the FRAPPE application and TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2; and synthetic TEMPO O3and NO2. WRF-Chem/DART integrates the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model with on-line chemistry (WRF-Chem) into the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART). It assimilates AirNow CO, O3, NO2, SO2, PM10, and PM2.5 measurements, MOPITT CO; IASI CO, O3; OMI O3, NO2, SO2; TROPOMI CO, O3, NO2, SO2; MODIS AOD; and synthetic TEMPO O3 and NO2 total/partial column and/or profile retrievals.WRF-Chem/DART uses: (i) the state augmentation method for adjusting emissions; (ii) state-space localization; and (iii) a near-real time scripting system. We use the medium-resolution FRAPPE application to demonstrate the incremental benefits from assimilating OMI observations with emissions adjustment and the high-resolution Colorado application to demonstrate the incremental benefits from assimilating syntheticTEMPO observations with emissions adjustment. For both applications, we expect that: (i) assimilating chemical observations will increaseAQ forecast skill; (ii) including emissions adjustment will increase forecast skill/predictability; and (iii) including assimilation of synthetic TEMPO observations will further increase forecast skill/predictability.

High resolution

Improved Soil Moisture Estimation and Detection of Irrigation Signal By Incorporating SMAP Soil Moisture Into the Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)

Land surface models have facilitated the estimation of soil moisture over a range of spatiotemporal scales. However, limitations in model parameterization and under-representation of anthropogenic processes restrict their ability to estimate local-scale soil moisture variability, especially over irrigated areas. Assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals into land surface models can be a viable approach to overcome these constraints, specially over highly irrigated countries such as India, where such applications are rare. Additionally, large-scale validation of modeled soil moisture has been limited over India till now due to lack of a representative station network. By assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP)-based estimates into the state-of-the-art Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) and combining with a new soil moisture station network of more than 200 stations, this study demonstrates improved soil moisture estimations and capture of irrigation signals over the region. The Noah-MP land surface model is forced by multiple local and global meteorological datasets and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation of soil moisture. Comparison of open-loop and data assimilated soil moisture against station soil moisture data shows relative spatial mean improvement of 0.0178 in correlation and 0.0029 m3/m3 in RMSE. Further statistical comparison with in-situ data has also shown better results over most of the stations, as evident from improved correlations and reduced unbiased RMSE after assimilation. Finally, the climatology of soil moisture over the different irrigation fractions reveals that data assimilated outputs over irrigated grid cells tend to have higher soil moisture during dry winter season, demonstrating the ability to capture irrigation signals. These findings quantify the value of data assimilation in improving soil moisture estimates and the ability to capture unmodeled processes such as irrigation, which lays the science groundwork for upcoming space missions such as NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR).

Soil Moisture

Improving Assimilated Global Climate Data Using TRMM and SSM/I Rainfall and Moisture Data

Current global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation, evaporation, and related cloud and moisture in the tropics. Work has been underway at NASA's Data Assimilation Office to explore the use of TRMM and SSM/I-derived rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) data in global data assimilation to directly constrain these hydrological parameters. We found that assimilating these data types improves not only the precipitation and moisture estimates but also key climate parameters directly linked to convection such as the outgoing longwave radiation, clouds, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. We will present results showing that assimilating TRMM and SSM/I 6-hour averaged rain rates and TPW estimates significantly reduces the state-dependent systematic errors in assimilated products. Specifically, rainfall assimilation improves cloud and latent heating distributions, which, in turn, improves the cloudy-sky radiation and the large-scale circulation, while TPW assimilation reduces moisture biases to improve radiation in clear-sky regions. Rainfall and TPW assimilation also improves tropical forecasts beyond 1 day.

Hou, Arthur Y.

TRMM Data Assimilation at NASA

Current global analyses contain significant errors in primary hydrological fields such as precipitation, evaporation, and related cloud and moisture in the tropics. Work has been underway at NASA's Data Assimilation Office to explore the use of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I)-derived rainfall and total precipitable water (TPW) data in global data assimilation to directly constrain these hydrological parameters. We found that assimilating these data types improves not only the precipitation and moisture estimates but also key climate parameters directly linked to convection such as the outgoing longwave radiation, clouds, and the large-scale circulation in the tropics. We will present results showing that assimilating TRMM and SSM/I 6-hour averaged rain rates and TPW estimates significantly reduces the state-dependent systematic errors in assimilated products. Specifically, rainfall assimilation improves cloud and latent heating distributions, which, in turn, improves the cloudy-sky radiation and the large-scale circulation, while TPW assimilation reduces moisture biases to improve radiation in clear-sky regions. Rainfall and TPW assimilation also improves tropical forecasts beyond I day.

Hou, Arthur Y.

Applications of Constituent Data Assimilation Systems

Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond that water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction community. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. This suggests that the product is of sufficient quality to be extended to other applications. This talk will enumerate these other applications and present initial results from exploratory research. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the p development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Rood, Richard B.

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data: Benefits to Numerical Weather Prediction

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The technique has been employed on a semi-operational basis at the GHCC within the PSU/CAR MM5 since 1 November 1998. A one-way nested grid configuration was employed with a 75 kin CONUS domain and a 25 km grid over the southeastern United States. Initial conditions were obtained from the 12 UTC Early Eta Data Assimilation System analyses and lateral boundary conditions from the Early Eta forecast available at 3 hour intervals. The satellite-derived land surface temperature tendencies and insolation were assimilated between two and five hours (1400 and 1650 UTC) of the forecast. We performed the assimilation on the Southeastern domain only. In addition, a control run without assimilation was performed to provide insight into the performance of the assimilation technique.

Lapenta, William M.

Preliminary Results from an Assimilation of Saharan Dust Using TOMS Radiances and the GOCART Model

At NASA Goddard we are developing a global aerosol data assimilation system that combines advances in remote sensing and modeling of atmospheric aerosols. The goal is to provide high resolution, 3-D aerosol distributions to the research community. Our first step is to develop a simple assimilation system for Saharan mineral aerosol. The Goddard Chemistry and Aerosol Radiation model (GOCART) provides accurate 3-D mineral aerosol size distributions. Surface mobilization, wet and dry deposition, convective and long-range transport are all driven by assimilated fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System, GEOS-DAS. Our version of GOCART transports sizes from .08-10 microns and only simulates Saharan dust. We draw the assimilation to two observables in this study: the TOMS aerosol index (Al) which is directly related to the ratio of the 340 and 380 radiances and the 380 radiance alone. The forward model that simulates the observables requires the aerosol optical thickness, the single scattering albedo and the height of the aerosol layer from the GOCART fields. The forward model also requires a refractive index for the dust. We test three index values to see which best fits the TOMS observables. These are 1) for Saharan dust reported by Patterson, 2) for a mixture of Saharan dust and a highly reflective material (sea salt or sulfate) and 3) for pure illite. The assimilation works best assuming either pure illite or the dust mixture. Our assimilation cycle first determines values of the aerosol index (Al) and the radiance at 380 nm based on the GOCART aerosol fields. Differences between the observed and GOCART model calculated Al and 380 nm radiance are first analyzed horizontally using the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). A quasi-Newton iteration is then performed to produce analyzed 3D aerosol fields according to parameterized background and observation error covariances. We only assimilate observations into the the GOCART model over regions of Africa and the Atlantic where mineral aerosols are dominant and carbonaceous aerosols are minimal.

Weaver, C. J.

Assimilation of GOES Land Surface Data Within a Rapid Update Cycle Format: Impact on MM5 Warm Season QPF

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite-observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts simulations of near-surface meteorology on the 0-to 12-hour time scale when implemented within a local rapid update cycle (LRUC) format. The PSU/NCAR MM5 V34 is used and configured with a 36-km CONUS domain and a 12-km nest centered over the southeastern US. The LRUC format consists of a sequence of 12-hour forecasts initialized every hour between 12 and 18 UTC seven days a week. GOES skin temperature tendencies and solar insolation are assimilated in a 1-hour period prior to the start of each twelve-hour forecast. A unique aspect of the LRUC is the satellite assimilation and the continuous recycling of the adjusted moisture availability field from one forecast cycle to the next. Preliminary results for a seven-day trial period indicate that hourly LST tendencies assimilated in a 1 hour LRUC showed improved simulated air and dewpoint temperatures for all cycles on each day. The LRUC will be used during the 2001 summer months to identify the impact of the assimilation on warm season QPF Results will be presented at the meeting.

Lapenta, William M.

DAO's Next Generation Physical-Space/Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System: Formulation and Initial Evaluation

The Physical-space/Finite-volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS) is the next generation global atmospheric data assimilation system in development at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. It is based on a new finite-volume general circulation model jointly developed by NASA and NCAR, and on the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) developed at the DAO. In this talk we will describe the general system formulation, the adaptive quality control and general aspects of the error covariance modeling. The NASA-NCAR GCM is a completely new model which replaces the CEOs GCM used in the previous GEOS-1/2/3 Data Assimilation systems. A particular configuration of adaptive Statistical Quality Control and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) are currently implemented in DAO's operational Data Assimilation System. However, the unique finite-volume formulation of the NASA-NCAR GCM, combined with the generality of the observation-space formulation of PSAS, provides for a very simple and accurate model-analysis interface. The system assimilates a variety of conventional and satellite observations. In particular, TOVS Level 1B radiances are assimilated using a 1-D variational scheme, both in clear sky and cloudy conditions. Computationally, the fvDAS runs approximately 10 times faster than the operational GEOS-Terra system. We will show that the next-generation fvDAS has much improved observation-minus-6hr forecast (O-F) statistics, as well as 5-day forecast skills. Top of the atmosphere radiation fields are in closer agreement with CERES measurements, with realistic precipitation and moisture fields. We will also show that the finite-volume formulation of the fvDAS produce assimilated fields which are more suitable for driving constituent transport models.

daSilva, A.

Monitoring of MLS Measurements for Ozone Data Assimilation

The ozone data assimilation system at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has operationally provided near real time global three dimensional analyzed ozone fields since December 1999. Presently, 4 system assimilates both total column ozone and profile measurements from the NOAA - 16 SBUV/2 instrument into an off-line transport model using a physical space statistical analysis scheme (PS AS). Recently, this system was modified to investigate a possible impact from including MLS profile observations. Over a period from December 13, 1991 to March 1, 1992 the system assimilated both NOAA 11 SBUV/2 profile measurements and TOMS total column measurements. Short term ozone forecasts were produced and compared to MLS observations. The resulting observed -minus -forecast (O-F) residuals were studied regionally (by both latitude bands and pressure levels) in order to explore the potential impact of MLS observations on the assimilation and sensitivity to the UARS yaw maneuver and other instrument and algorithm characteristics. In addition, MLS profiles were compared to nearest neighbor SBUV and analysis profiles. In the tropics, analyzed ozone values tend to be too high from 1-3 hPa and too low from 10-20 hPa. MLS measurements in these regions tend be lower and higher (respectively) than forecast ozone values. This indicates that assimilating MLS measurements may improve, analysis results in these areas. Further, nearest neighbor profile comparisons in the southern high latitudes indicate that laminar features present in the analysis but not present in SBUV measurements, are also present in MLS measurements. This, together with the availability of MLS measurements in polar night regions indicates that assimilating MLS measurements in polar night regions indicates that assimilating MLS measurements may improve analyzed ozone values in high latitudes.

Winslow, Nathan

Constituent Data Assimilation: Challenges and Limitations

The assimilation of observations of atmospheric constituents naturally divides into two major pieces. The first is the assimilation of trace gases whose variability is related to atmospheric motions. The second is the assimilation of trace gases which are sharply influenced by chemical exchange between different constituents. In order to advance beyond the initial successes of explorative investigation of assimilation techniques, tremendous challenges must be met to improve the geophysical integrity of assimilated data products. A subject of special interest is ozone near the tropopause. At the tropopause the information from both the observations and the model simulation becomes most uncertain. However a number of important geophysical parameters, e.g. stratosphere-troposphere exchange and tropospheric ozone, require the assimilation to have high accuracy at the tropopause. This talk will review the current status of the quality of assimilated data products near the tropopause, what must be done to improve the assimilation near the tropopause, and the intrinsic limitations that will require additional sources of information in order for the field to advance.

Rood, Richard B.

Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola