Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Agreements”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

NLR CSP Optical Facilities: Illuminating the Path Forward Through Innovation and Impact: Agreement 38490

This initiative is a multi-faceted project at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) aimed at strengthening its Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Optical Facilities to advance the development of low-cost, high-performance materials for solar and other applications. The project's strategy is built on three pillars: strategic stakeholder engagement, diligent facility maintenance and utilization, and the development of new research capabilities. The overarching goal is to ensure the facilities remain state-of-the-art resources for industry and academia, thereby accelerating the conversion of concentrated sunlight into energy. A key driver of the project is an international Advisory Board, which provides critical guidance on research priorities and industry needs, leading to new collaborations and secured funding. This external engagement, combined with proactive outreach to industry partners, ensures the lab's work remains aligned with real-world challenges, including materials durability and performance certification. Significant efforts in facility maintenance have addressed challenges with aging infrastructure. Notable achievements include the complete refurbishment of the hail-damaged Ultra-Accelerated Weathering System (UAWS) and the successful replacement of a failing 15-year-old Lambda 1050 spectrophotometer with a new-generation model, substantially upgrading material characterization capabilities. These maintenance activities were complemented by achieving a prestigious ISO 9001:2015 certification for the Advanced Optical Materials Labs, formally recognizing the quality and reliability of NLR's measurement capabilities. Despite these successes, challenges remain, including high demand for the High Flux Solar Furnace (HFSF) and intermittent failures of other key instruments. The project has delivered major advancements in research techniques and capabilities. At the Flatirons campus, a new indoor laboratory, was established to house advanced deflectometry and photogrammetry systems for heliostat characterization. For on-sun testing, a novel, actively cooled turning mirror was developed for the HFSF, enabling more realistic testing of particle receivers and components. A collaboration with Virginia Tech successfully demonstrated the high-temperature durability of a new solar absorber coating through extensive cyclic testing. Concurrently, new modeling took place to better predict material degradation on rough, fractal surfaces. In summary, this project has systematically enhanced NLR's CSP Optical Facilities through strategic upgrades, rigorous maintenance, and stakeholder-guided research. By overcoming equipment failures, budgetary constraints, and logistical hurdles, the project has reinforced NLR's role as a central hub for CSP innovation and materials testing. Future work will focus on securing diverse funding, expanding collaborations, and continuing to provide the critical infrastructure needed to accelerate the development and deployment of next-generation technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between National Energy Technology Laboratory and West Virginia University Research Corporation (Abstract)

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and West Virginia University Research Corporation (Participant) will collaborate on the testing of a 3D printed sparger in a temperature and pressure chamber, for the purpose of supporting the “American-Made Geothermal Prize” competition, designed to catalyze manufacturing innovation in the American geothermal industry by harnessing the rapid advances additive manufacturing can provide in improving design, fabrication, and functionality, which is accomplished through a series of prize competitions and the development of a diverse and powerful support network that leverages national laboratories, energy incubators, and other resources from across the United States. The intent is to connect competitor teams with national laboratories that can help accelerate the development of innovative solutions and products. Teams who have won the Set!, Go!, Make! Contests are eligible to utilize vouchers at national laboratories to advance their ideas.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Calibration of multisite raters for prospective visual reads of amyloid PET scans

Abstract INTRODUCTION In multicenter Alzheimer's disease studies, amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) visual reads are typically performed centrally by a few experts. Incorporating a broader reader network enhances scalability and generalizability. METHODS Ten neuroimaging experts from eight Alzheimer's Disease Research Centers (ADRCs) visually read 180 amyloid PET scans (30 scans and 15 duplicate scans for each of four tracers, imaged across a wide variety of scanners), using preferred reading software without anatomical imaging or quantitation. Scans were classified as elevated or non‐elevated per tracer‐specific criteria. Inter‐ and intra‐rater agreement was assessed. RESULTS Inter‐rater agreement was substantial (Fleiss’κ = 0.78), with full consensus on 69% of scans. Inter‐rater reliability was substantial to perfect across tracers (Fleiss’κ = 0.70–0.87). Intra‐rater agreement was substantial to perfect (Cohen'sκ = 0.79‐1). Scans with intermediate (10–40 Centiloid) quantitation had lower reader agreement. DISCUSSION A multicenter expert network achieved substantial agreement classifying amyloid PET scans. These scans provide a standard for reader training and reliability assurance in future studies. Highlights Calibration methods ensure reliable amyloid positron emission tomography (PET) visual reads across multiple raters. Substantial agreement is possible across readers using their preferred tools. Agreement is also substantial regardless of the amyloid PET tracer used. Scans with intermediate (10–40 Centiloid) quantitation have lower reader agreement. The calibration set will become a training tool for amyloid PET visual read studies.

Neurosciences & Neurology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quarterly Technical Progress Report Piperazine Advanced Stripper (PZAS™) Front End Engineering Design

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This document summarizes the status of Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0031844, “Piperazine Advanced Stripper (PZAS™) Front-End Engineering Design,” during the reporting period of January 1 through March 31, 2020. The objective of this project is to develop accurate installed costs by conducting a Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) of PZAS™ at Golden Spread Electric Cooperative’s (GSEC) Mustang Station located in Denver City, TX. Complementary benefits include positioning the technology for a commercial project with the 45Q tax credits, qualifying PZAS™ for use on a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Cogen facility, and to provide cost detail to optimize PZAS™ and help guide R&D of second-generation solvent CO2 capture technologies. Results from the FEED will be used to evaluate the economic feasibility of the process at Mustang Station. This project is funded by the U.S. DOE National Energy Technology Laboratory under the aforementioned Cooperative Agreement. Exxon, Total, Chevron, UOP-Honeywell, and the University of Texas (UT) are project co-funders. AECOM and Trimeric are project team members; UT is the prime contractor. Summary of Progress Cooperative Agreement DE-FE0031844 was established in October 2019. The current reporting period, January 1 through March 31, 2020, is the second technical progress reporting period for the project. Several milestones were accomplished during this reporting period, including: • Kickoff Meeting with DOE on February 3, 2020. • Kickoff Meeting with GSEC on March 30, 2020. (Note: Due to Covid-19 travel restrictions and shelter-in-place guidelines, the kickoff meeting was conducted remotely via videoconferencing. See attached notes from that telecon.) • Updated Project Management Plan March 2020, submitted with this quarterly report Other activities during the quarter included progress on contracting and other legal agreements (e.g., non-disclosure agreements), internal kickoff meetings at both AECOM and Trimeric, and development of a Technical Implementation Plan (TIP). The TIP will help the team to make critical, early process decisions and, ultimately, to develop a project and process design basis. Note that all agreements between project team participants are complete as of this submittal, except the vendor agreement with Kiewit (steam cycle modeling). Plans for Next Reporting Period Activities during the next reporting period (April 1, 2020 through June 30, 2020) include: the completion of the Project Design Basis and progress towards the Process Design Basis/Process Design Package (PDP). The Project Design Basis is due as a deliverable and milestone during the next reporting period.

Rochelle, Gary T.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of a laboratory-developed multiplex real-time PCR assay for diagnosis of syphilis, herpes and chancroid genital ulcers in four public health laboratories in the USA

Objective To evaluate the field performance of a multiplex PCR (M-PCR) assay for detection of herpes simplex virus (HSV)-1 and HSV-2, Treponema pallidum ( T. pallidum ) and Haemophilus ducreyi ( H. ducreyi ) in genital ulcer disease (GUD) specimens. Methods GUD M-PCR was performed on 186 remnant specimens, previously collected for HSV testing, by four public health laboratories (PHLs) and the Laboratory Reference and Research Branch (LRRB) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The results from the PHLs were compared with those of LRRB, which served as the reference testing method, and percentage agreement was calculated. Results HSV was detected in 31 of 52 (59.6%), 20 of 40 (50%), 43 of 44 (97.7%) and 19 of 50 (38.0%) specimens from PHL1, PHL2, PHL3 and PHL4, respectively. There were seven discrepant results for HSV, and the overall percent agreement between the PHLs and the LRRB was 94%–100%, with a kappa value of 0.922, which demonstrates high agreement. T. pallidum was identified in 7 of 51 (13.7%) specimens from PHL1 with 94.1% agreement and in 2 of 40 (5.0%) specimens from PHL2 with 100% agreement. The LRRB identified three additional T. pallidum -positive specimens from PHL1. The kappa value (0.849) for T. pallidum testing suggests good agreement. Consistent with the LRRB results, no T. pallidum was detected in specimens from PHL3 and PHL4, and H. ducreyi was not detected at any of the study sites. Conclusions The GUD M-PCR assay performed well in four independent PHLs and 12 suspected syphilis cases were identified in this study. The M-PCR assay could provide improved diagnostic options for GUD infections in state and local PHLs.

Infectious Diseases↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task C Final Report

The Full-scale Emplacement (FE) heater experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) was designed and conducted by Nagra to replicate an emplacement tunnel of Nagra’s reference repository design at 1:1 scale. Alongside testing the technical feasibility of constructing disposal tunnels, emplacing waste containers in the tunnels and then backfilling them, the main goals of the FE experiment are (1) to obtain a better understanding of the coupled effects of induced thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes that may occur and (2) to validate existing coupled THM models (Müller et al., 2017). A key aspect of ensuring safety for repositories located in low-permeability rock involves minimizing any damage to the rock itself, thereby preserving its integrity and promoting a stable environment Amongst a number of processes that could damage the rock is the increase in pore pressure due to thermal loading caused by heat emitted from the waste. To reduce the potential damage of the rock, it is important to analyse the evolution of heat over time due to the heat load of the containers and assess possible consequences by coupled THM models. The aim of Task C of DECOVALEX-2023 was to build 3D numerical models of the FE experiment, focussing in particular on the heating induced pore pressure change in the Opalinus Clay. Data from a large number of sensors were available from the FE experiment for model comparison. These sensors measured temperature and relative humidity in the bentonite around the heaters, and temperature, pressure and displacement/strain in the surrounding Opalinus clay. Data were available from the start of excavation (April 2012) up to August 2020 for most sensors (more than 5 years from the start of heating in December 2014). To fulfil the overall aim of the task, the work was broken down into a number of steps, starting with simpler models to build confidence in each team’s approach and then moving to more complex models that better represent the FE experiment. Step 0 consisted of 2D benchmark models, gradually increasing the number of processes that are represented from thermal (T) only models in Step 0a, to coupled thermal hydraulic (TH) models in Step 0b with a representation of changing porosity, to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models in Step 0c, where porosity changes are calculated by the mechanical model. A detailed specification of processes, parameters, initial and boundary conditions was provided for this step, with the ambition that all teams would work towards close agreement in their model results, thus building confidence in the model implementations. vi It was not straightforward to achieve agreement between the teams, so additional steps (Step 0b2, 0b3, 0c2, 0c3) were added along with derivation of some analytical solutions against which the models could be compared. The reasons for the differences between teams were investigated and found to be caused primarily by different conceptual model assumptions (including temperature dependence of the thermal expansion of water), different model formulations (including porosity evolution) and differences in modelled domain sizes, boundary conditions and grid discretisation. This demonstrates that comparisons between multiple modelling teams and/or comparison with analytical results and experimental data are highly beneficial in providing an indication of uncertainty in model predictions. At the conclusion of Step 0, almost all teams had achieved a close agreement in model results and those that had not achieved an agreement knew the reason for this. Step 1 moved from 2D models to 3D models of the FE experiment without adding technical features like shotcrete or EDZ, and only considering the heating phase. Initially the 3D model was tightly specified to continue to build confidence in the model implementations (Step 1a). The results of Step 1a were compared to the data from the FE-experiment without the teams seeing the data. The teams were then provided with a sub-set of the data from the FE-experiment and invited to consider how best to use the large dataset for model comparison (Step 1b). Teams were then asked to use the data provided to calibrate their models, only changing material property values rather than adding features or processes to their models (Step 1c). In Step 1, teams were asked to only model the heating phase of the experiment, so pressure in the Opalinus Clay was reported as change in pressure since the initial conditions were specified rather than modelled. The change from 2D to 3D models was accompanied by an increase in the dispersion of results between the teams. Some of this was resolved during the task, but some remained and is potentially due to model discretisation. Calibration of parameters was useful in improving the fit of the models to the data but the remaining differences indicated that the models were missing features or processes. In Step 2, the teams were asked to update their models with additional features and processes as well as calibrating parameters to try and improve the fit of the models to the data. Teams were encouraged to represent ventilation of the open FE tunnel prior to backfilling with heaters and bentonite and in Step 2, the absolute pressure in the Opalinus Clay was compared between the teams. Teams took different approaches, but there was consideration of adding shotcrete and an EDZ into the model, representing stress change during excavation and different approaches to modelling ventilation of the FE tunnel. Overall, the documented results showed a very good agreement for temperature. The results for porewater pressure evolution showed a significant improvement for most teams compared to Step 1c with a good agreement to the measurements for several teams whereas some teams overpredicted the pressure increase and others overpredicted the drainage effect especially for the sensors close to the heater. Step 3 was an opportunity for teams to use the models developed in Step 1 and Step 2 to make predictions about the temperature and pressure changes that will be expected at the FE experiment over the next few years in light of the planned changes in thermal output of the heaters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Validation of a Scoring System for Abnormalities in the Gopher Frog (Rana capito)

Headstarting efforts are thought to be critical in supplementing populations of the at-risk Gopher Frog (Rana capito); however, recent efforts have occasionally resulted in juveniles with developmental abnormalities. In response, we developed a scoring system to collect quantitative data on the presence and severity of these developmental abnormalities. Our objective was to describe and validate the abnormality scoring system so that it can be used by all Gopher Frog headstarting facilities. The scoring system covers five primary conditions encompassing commonly observed abnormalities. Two groups of participants with different levels of prior experience working with Gopher Frogs assigned scores to a set of images presented to them for each condition. We used intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) to test the scoring system for inter- and intra-rater agreement as well as agreement with the benchmark standard (established by the authors). We found high ICC values for inter-rater agreement, intra-rater agreement, and agreement to the benchmark standard indicating either excellent or good reliability for all five conditions and for all raters when grouped together. These findings support the reliability and validity of the proposed developmental abnormality scoring system. Gopher Frog headstarting facilities can implement this scoring system to assist in tracking the frequency and severity of abnormalities observed in future headstarting efforts. We hope that by creating a reliable scoring system for Gopher Frogs, it can provide an overall framework and serve as a valuable resource to evaluate abnormalities across any amphibian species.

abnormality↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluation of simulated HPGe detector efficiencies in OpenMC compared to MCNP

In late 2023, the open-source radiation transport code OpenMC introduced a pulse-height tally (PHT) feature, enabling users to track the total energy deposited by individual photons in OpenMC cells. This function represents an important improvement of the OpenMC code because it allows users to simulate the response function of a gamma detector without relying on closed-source alternatives. Despite this, limited work has been published evaluating OpenMC as a radiation transport code for simulating gamma spectroscopy experiments. This study attempts to demonstrate the usefulness of OpenMC in this space by directly comparing its PHT output to MCNP (a trusted industry-standard Monte Carlo code). In the first half of this study, a radiation transport experiment is described in which a detector with a complex internal geometry is exposed to various gamma-emitting isotopes ( 133 Ba, 137 Cs, and 60 Co) over a range of distances. The setup of this experiment was modeled in MCNP with sufficient detail to capture the efficiency characteristics of a high purity germanium (HPGe) detector for the primary gammas of each isotope. After good agreement between the MCNP model and experiment was achieved, an identical model was produced in OpenMC to allow direct comparison between the full energy peak (FEP) values produced in OpenMC and MCNP. The results show strong agreement between OpenMC and MCNP across the full range of tested energies, with each model’s FEP values typically within 2% of each other and most FEP areas within 4% of experimental data. Worse agreement was seen between the Monte Carlo codes and experiment below 300 keV (an expected result). For the 662 keV line of 137 Cs, both codes were found in poor agreement with experiment and each other over the full range of distances tested (possibly indicating an error with the 137 Cs experimental data). Ignoring the anomalous results of the 662 keV line, all other data show good qualitative and quantitative agreement between MCNP and OpenMC. This result demonstrates the accuracy of OpenMC’s PHT feature for spectroscopic applications in which detector efficiency is a primary concern.

07 - ISOTOPES AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Clean Energy (ROICE) vs. Decommissioning – Commercial Considerations

Abstract The Repurposing Offshore Infrastructure for Clean Energy (ROICE) Program, a collaboration of the energy industry and University of Houston, proposes extending the life of up to 1,500 oil and gas platforms in the Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico, USA. Rather than decommissioning or converting them to underwater reefs at the end of their oil and gas production phase, the platforms could be transformed for 10–20+ years of renewable energy development, such as green hydrogen production or carbon dioxide injection and storage, resulting in significant economic, environmental, and social benefits. ROICE has already published papers on the technical and regulatory considerations for such repurposing projects. This paper focuses on the commercial considerations needed to ensure ROICE projects are economically viable and sustainable for all involved. There are potentially many entities that can come together to progress a repurposing project, including oil and gas asset owners, operators, investors, developers, contractors, manufacturers, and regulators. This paper looks at possible combinations of these entities in a ROICE project team and the various commercial agreements that will be needed to ensure a mutually successful outcome. The paper proposes adapting existing industry agreements and templates to suit, including asset transfer agreements (ATA), asset purchase agreements (APA) and joint purchasing agreements (JOA). An ATA or APA can be drafted to address the obligations and issues involved in the sale or transfer of an existing oil and gas facility to the developer, operator, non-operating interests, and financial investors in a ROICE project, while a JOA can be drafted to govern the rights, obligations, and financial requirements of the parties involved in the development and operation.

Legge, G. [Endeavor Management, USA]↗
DOE OSTI2020

FAST.Farm Development and Validation of Structural Load Prediction Against Large Eddy Simulations

FAST.Farm is a mid-fidelity engineering tool developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory targeted at accurately and efficiently predicting wind turbine power production and structural loading in wind farm settings, including wake interactions between turbines. FAST.Farm is based on several principles of the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model, but also addresses limitations of previous DWM implementations. Previous FAST.Farm studies have shown the similarities and differences between FAST.Farm and large eddy simulations for rigid turbine cases. The objective of this work is to quantify the ability of FAST.Farm to accurately predict turbine structural response in a small wind farm. This is done by comparing FAST.Farm structural response to SOWFA-OpenFAST results for three laterally-aligned turbines. The purpose of this study is to characterize the similarities and differences between FAST.Farm and a higher fidelity model for predicting turbine structural response in a wind farm for differing atmospheric inflows. Strong statistical agreement was found between FAST.Farm and SOWFA-OpenFAST structural response for the non-waked upstream turbine, and good agreement was found for the downstream turbines for most structural quantities. Higher differences were seen for downstream turbines with low ambient turbulence intensity or yawed turbines, suggesting areas for FAST.Farm wake dynamics modeling improvements. For all cases and turbines, small statistical differences were seen between blade deflections and bending moments, with larger differences for tower-top and tower-base bending moments. Overall, the results establish confidence for applying FAST.Farm to wind farm power and loads analyses and identify areas where further model validations and model improvements should be targeted.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2020

SCALE capabilities for high temperature gas-cooled reactor analysis

The SCALE code system’s ability to address stochastic distributions of fuel particles within a graphite matrix has been revisited in both multigroup (MG) features and continuous-energy (CE) Monte Carlo methods. Furthermore, this paper describes current and emergent SCALE capabilities within the CSAS sequence to address double-heterogeneous systems and presents verification and validation studies of these methods and data. Good agreement was obtained for a high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) fuel pebble model between CSAS MG eigenvalue calculations and corresponding CE reference solutions. Code-to-code comparisons for this HTGR pebble model showed good agreement of CSAS-KENO and CSAS-Shift CE calculations and the Serpent and MCNP codes in terms of eigenvalues and reaction rate ratios. Validation studies based on two HTGR experiments resulted in good agreement between MG and CE results, as well as between experiment and calculation, although the level of agreement was significantly influenced by the applied ENDF/B nuclear data library.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soft costs and EVSE – Knowledge gaps as a barrier to successful projects

There has been a recent push to increase access to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. The National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, part of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) has made significant funding available for major charging infrastructure projects along state thruways, and many state and local incentives exist for EV owners to install chargers in their homes. However, deployment of these chargers has not kept up with demand, primarily due to issues in project planning, permitting processes, and unforeseen delays. This paper serves as a review of the current understanding of these and other non-hardware costs in EV charging infrastructure projects (collectively known as “soft costs”). We found that soft costs in EV charging infrastructure projects are not well understood. Specifically, there is little agreement on how soft costs should be categorized and tracked, and less agreement still on best practices for controlling these costs and lowering barriers to infrastructure deployment. A broader review of EV charging infrastructure cost analyses shows that these costs can have significant impacts on project outcomes. EV charging infrastructure projects may be able to examine the success of the solar industry in lowering soft costs, and a similar effort may lower project costs significantly. Further work on standardizing and collecting data on EV charging infrastructure costs is required to begin addressing and controlling these costs.

32 - ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-ion battery physics and statistics-based state of health model

A pseudo-2d model using COMSOL Multiphysics® software is developed to simulate performance and performance degradation of Li-ion batteries consisting of layered and olivine cathodes with graphite anode when subjected to peak shaving grid service. Multiple degradation pathways are considered, including solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) formation and breakdown at the anode, cathode dissolution and its synergistic effect on SEI formation at the anode. The model is validated by simulating commercial cylindrical cell performance. A global model is developed to simulate performance across all chemistries, along with individual chemistry models using global model parameters as initial values. There is good agreement between these models for various optimization parameters such as SEI equilibrium potential, cathode dissolution exchange current density, solvent diffusivity in the SEI and SEI ionic conductivity. To circumvent time constraints related to the COMSOL model, a 0d global model is developed which fits data well and provides more clarity on differences in cathode dissolution exchange current density. Again, good agreement for various optimization parameters is obtained among the COMSOL global & individual chemistry models and the 0-d model. The lessons learned from the physics-based model is used to develop a top down statistics-based model using current, voltage and anode volumetric change per mole lithium intercalated, along with their interactions as degradation predictors. This model predicts out of sample degradation for multiple grid services and electric vehicle drive cycle with high accuracy and provides the pathway to develop an efficient battery management system combining machine learning and findings from physics-based computationally intensive algorithms.

Crawford, Aladsair J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (= 800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1-150 underestimate those from SOM (-8% ± 13%) and long (-14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2% ± 14%) and long (-8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.

Dunne, John P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK XI. Bayesian CMB analysis with sample-based end-to-end error propagation

We present posterior sample-based cosmic microwave background (CMB) constraints from Planck LFI and WMAP observations as derived through global end-to-end Bayesian processing within the BeyondPlanck framework. We first use these samples to study correlations between CMB, foreground, and instrumental parameters, and we identify a particularly strong degeneracy between CMB temperature fluctuations and free-free emission on intermediate angular scales (400 ≲ ℓ ≲ 600), which is mitigated through model reduction, masking, and resampling. We compare our posterior-based CMB results with previous Planck products, and find generally good agreement, although with notably higher noise due to our exclusion of HFI data. We find a best-fit CMB dipole amplitude of 3362.7 ± 1.4 µK, in excellent agreement with previous Planck results. The quoted dipole uncertainty is derived directly from the sampled posterior distribution, and does not involve any ad hoc contributions for Planck instrumental systematic effects. Similarly, we find a temperature quadrupole amplitude of ${σ}_{2}^{TT}$ = 229 ± 97 µK 2 , which is in good agreement with previous results in terms of the amplitude, but the uncertainty is an order of magnitude larger than the naive diagonal Fisher uncertainty. Relatedly, we find lower evidence for a possible alignment between the quadrupole and octopole than previously reported due to a much larger scatter in the individual quadrupole coefficients, caused both by marginalizing over a more complete set of systematic effects, but also by our more conservative analysis mask required to mitigate the free-free degeneracy. For higher multipoles, we find that the angular temperature power spectrum is generally in good agreement with both Planck and WMAP. At the same time, we note that this is the first time the sample-based asymptotically exact Blackwell-Rao estimator has been successfully established for multipoles up to ℓ ≤ 600, and it now accounts for the majority of the cosmologically important information. Overall, this analysis demonstrates the unique capabilities of the Bayesian approach with respect to end-to-end systematic uncertainty propagation, and we believe it can and should play an important role in the analysis of future CMB experiments. Cosmological parameter constraints are presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗