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At least 109 records · Page 6

Advanced Stirling Convertor Dual Convertor Controller Testing at NASA Glenn Research Center in the Radioisotope Power Systems System Integration Laboratory

NASA Glenn Research Center developed a nonnuclear representation of a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) consisting of a pair of Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), Dual Convertor Controller (DCC) EMs (engineering models) 2 and 3, and associated support equipment, which were tested in the Radioisotope Power Systems System Integration Laboratory (RSIL). The DCC was designed by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) to actively control a pair of ASCs. The first phase of testing included a Dual Advanced Stirling Convertor Simulator (DASCS), which was developed by JHU/APL and simulates the operation and electrical behavior of a pair of ASCs in real time via a combination of hardware and software. RSIL provides insight into the electrical interactions between a representative radioisotope power generator, its associated control schemes, and realistic electric system loads. The first phase of integration testing included the following spacecraft bus configurations: capacitive, battery, and super-capacitor. A load profile, created based on data from several missions, tested the RPS's and RSIL's ability to maintain operation during load demands above and below the power provided by the RPS. The integration testing also confirmed the DCC's ability to disconnect from the spacecraft when the bus voltage dipped below 22 volts or exceeded 36 volts. Once operation was verified with the DASCS, the tests were repeated with actual operating ASCs. The goal of this integration testing was to verify operation of the DCC when connected to a spacecraft and to verify the functionality of the newly designed RSIL. The results of these tests are presented in this paper.

Controllers↗

Active Vibration Reduction of the Advanced Stirling Convertor

Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) are being developed as an option to provide power on future space science missions where robotic spacecraft will orbit, flyby, land or rove. A Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) could offer space missions a more efficient power system that uses one fourth of the nuclear fuel and decreases the thermal footprint compared to the current state of the art. The Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project is funded by the RPS Program to developing Stirling-based subsystems, including convertors and controller maturation efforts that have resulted in high fidelity hardware like the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), and ASC Controller Unit (ACU). The SCTD Project also performs research to develop less mature technologies with a wide variety of objectives, including increasing temperature capability to enable new environments, improving system reliability or fault tolerance, reducing mass or size, and developing advanced concepts that are mission enabling. Active vibration reduction systems (AVRS), or "balancers", have historically been developed and characterized to provide fault tolerance for generator designs that incorporate dual-opposed Stirling convertors or enable single convertor, or small RPS, missions. Balancers reduce the dynamic disturbance forces created by the power piston and displacer internal moving components of a single operating convertor to meet spacecraft requirements for induced disturbance force. To improve fault tolerance for dual-opposed configurations and enable single convertor configurations, a breadboard AVRS was implemented on the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC). The AVRS included a linear motor, a motor mount, and a closed-loop controller able to balance out the transmitted peak dynamic disturbance using acceleration feedback. Test objectives included quantifying power and mass penalty and reduction in transmitted force over a range of ASC operating parameters and mounting conditions. All tests were performed at three different piston amplitudes, 3.0, 3.75, and 4.5 mm. Overall, the transmitted force was reduced to 2 percent of the total unbalanced force by actively balancing out only the first fundamental frequency, with balancer motor power remaining under 1 watt. The test results will be used to guide future balancer designs.

Balancer↗

Active Vibration Reduction of the Advanced Stirling Convertor

Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) are being developed as an option to provide power on future space science missions where robotic spacecraft will orbit, flyby, land or rove. A Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) could offer space missions a more efficient power system that uses one fourth of the nuclear fuel and decreases the thermal footprint compared to the current state of the art. The Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project is funded by the RPS Program to developing Stirling-based subsystems, including convertors and controller maturation efforts that have resulted in high fidelity hardware like the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC), and ASC Controller Unit (ACU). The SCTD Project also performs research to develop less mature technologies with a wide variety of objectives, including increasing temperature capability to enable new environments, improving system reliability or fault tolerance, reducing mass or size, and developing advanced concepts that are mission enabling. Active vibration reduction systems (AVRS), or "balancers", have historically been developed and characterized to provide fault tolerance for generator designs that incorporate dual-opposed Stirling convertors or enable single convertor, or small RPS, missions. Balancers reduce the dynamic disturbance forces created by the power piston and displacer internal moving components of a single operating convertor to meet spacecraft requirements for induced disturbance force. To improve fault tolerance for dual-opposed configurations and enable single convertor configurations, a breadboard AVRS was implemented on the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC). The AVRS included a linear motor, a motor mount, and a closed-loop controller able to balance out the transmitted peak dynamic disturbance using acceleration feedback. Test objectives included quantifying power and mass penalty and reduction in transmitted force over a range of ASC operating parameters and mounting conditions. All tests were performed at three different piston amplitudes, 3.0 mm, 3.75 mm, and 4.5 mm. Overall, the transmitted force was reduced to 2% of the total unbalanced force by actively balancing out only the first fundamental frequency, with balancer motor power remaining under one watt. The test results will be used to guide future balancer designs.

Active Vibration Reduction↗

Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator EU2 Anomaly Investigation

The Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) Engineering Unit 2 (EU2) is the highest fidelity electrically-heated Stirling radioisotope generator built to date. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) completed the assembly of the ASRG EU2 in September, 2014 using hardware from the now cancelled ASRG flight development project. The ASRG EU2 integrated the first pair of Sunpower's ASC-E3 Stirling convertors (ASC-E3 #1 and #2) in an aluminum generator housing with Lockheed Martin's Engineering Development Unit (EDU) 4 controller. After just 179 hours of EU2 generator operation, the first power fluctuation occurred on ASC-E3 #1. The first power fluctuation occurred 175 hours later on ASC-E3 #2. Over time, the power fluctuations became more frequent on both convertors and larger in magnitude. Eventually the EU2 was shut down in January, 2015. An anomaly investigation was chartered to determine root cause of the power fluctuations and other anomalous observations. A team with members from GRC, Sunpower, and Lockheed Martin conducted a thorough investigation of the EU2 anomalies. Findings from the EU2 disassembly identified proximate causes of the anomalous observations. Discussion of the team's assessment of the primary possible failure theories, root cause, and conclusions is provided. Recommendations are made for future Stirling generator development to address the findings from the anomaly investigation. Additional findings from the investigation are also discussed.

Lewandowski, Edward J.↗

Overview of Advanced Stirling Convertor Dual Convertor Controller Development and Testing at NASA Glenn Research Center

For over two decades, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been supporting the development of Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). NASA desires higher conversion efficiency RPS options that are reliable and robust with long life design. Dynamic conversion, such as Stirling offer the potential for higher conversion efficiencies than current RPS but have yet to be demonstrated in a flight application. GRC developed a non-nuclear representation of a RPS consisting of a pair of Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC), a Dual Convertor Controller (DCC), and associated support equipment. The DCC was designed by the Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL) to actively control a pair of ASCs. Based on lessons learned, three generations of DCCs were developed over the past decade. After each generation of the DCC was completed, tests were performed to verify functionality. These tests include acceptance testing, fault testing, characterization testing, and testing with the Radioisotope Power System Systems Integration Laboratory (RSIL). Acceptance testing verifies that the DCC can control a pair of ASCs to produce full convertor power output. The fault testing verifies that the DCC can maintain control of the ASCs during either internal or external faults. Characterization testing verifies the functionality of the DCC over a range of bus voltage values. RSIL provides insight into the electrical interactions between a representative radioisotope power generator, its associated control schemes, and realistic electric system loads. The DCC design, development, lessons learned, test results, and future work are presented in this paper.

Stirling↗

ATHENA: Analytical Tool for Heterogeneous Neuromorphic Architectures

The ASC program seeks to use machine learning to improve efficiencies in its stockpile stewardship mission. Moreover, there is a growing market for technologies dedicated to accelerating AI workloads. Many of these emerging architectures promise to provide savings in energy efficiency, area, and latency when compared to traditional CPUs for these types of applications — neuromorphic analog and digital technologies provide both low-power and configurable acceleration of challenging artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. If designed into a heterogeneous system with other accelerators and conventional compute nodes, these technologies have the potential to augment the capabilities of traditional High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms [5]. This expanded computation space requires not only a new approach to physics simulation, but the ability to evaluate and analyze next-generation architectures specialized for AI/ML workloads in both traditional HPC and embedded ND applications. Developing this capability will enable ASC to understand how this hardware performs in both HPC and ND environments, improve our ability to port our applications, guide the development of computing hardware, and inform vendor interactions, leading them toward solutions that address ASC’s unique requirements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the flow-stress model of Preston, Tonks, and Wallace - Observations, parameter constraints, and implementations (Rev. 1)

A detailed discussion about the PTW flow-stress model has been presented, including theoretical considerations, model calibrations to experimental data, and model implementations in LANL ASC hydro-codes. The main findings are: In order to reproduce the intended behavior of the PTW model at high strain rates, the following conditions on the model parameters need to be valid: y 1 ≥ s 0 and y 2 ≥ β ; When the conditions above are not satisfied, PTW and PTW_Mod1 have slightly different behavior in the phonon-drag regime, and should be treated as different models. PTW exhibits a discontinuity above the critical strain rate. PTW_Mod1 does not show such a discontinuity but implies a different strain-rate dependence at high strain rates. Examples of this behavior include older calibrations for stainless steel and depleted uranium; In the thermal-activation regime, some flexibility was introduced in the original PTW model to allow for different rate-dependent behaviors at intermediate strain rates. Example: copper. However, many material calibrations do not require this extra flexibility, and the complexity and ambiguity of the intended behavior can be partially blamed for the inconsistent model implementations across ASC codes; The limit for the material constant p going to zero is well defined and leads to a simplified flow-stress equation, discontinuity free; Modern calibrations of the PTW parameters are done using Impala. Constraints on the PTW parameters are enforced; Implementation of the PTW model in LANL ASC hydro-codes suffered of several shortcom ings. At the time of writing, FLAG and xRAGE contain consistent and correct implemen tations of the PTW and PTW_Mod1 models. Corresponding changes to Pagosa have been suggested.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Performance Assessment of Concrete Structures in Nuclear Installations

Concrete structures in nuclear installations are subject to time-dependent degradation mechanisms that can deteriorate their physical and mechanical properties, potentially exacerbating the risk of structural failure under external forces such as a seismic event. Previous research has extensively investigated the seismic response of nuclear concrete structures and the associated risk, as well as their effect on structural components safety margins. However, substantial work is still necessary to incorporate concrete aging effects into such evaluations. In fact, most models in the literature assume pristine concrete conditions and do not account for the impact of aging on the structural components’ fragility curves. This work identifies relevant time-dependent degradation mechanisms and provides simplified models to predict the the evolution of key material properties based on data from the literature. Namely, this work focuses on the aging effects of corrosion, alkali–silica reaction (ASR), and irradiation on reinforced concrete within US Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities and nuclear power plants (NPP) structures. Furthermore, degradation models based on literature data are presented that define the relationship between probabilistic material properties and the concrete’s age. In this work, sampled material properties served as input for a simplified finite element model (FEM) of a critical nuclear structural system, with the output of the FEM being the seismic response for a given ground motion. The results of the FEM were then used within a probabilistic performance assessment with a statistically significant number of samples. The research presented herein addresses the detrimental effects of hazards caused by natural phenomena on deteriorated concrete elements of nuclear installations. This work directly benefits the safety analysis performed on US DOE/ National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) nuclear facilities located in areas prone to seismic activity. The results presented herein could aid in the improvement of DOE-STD-1020, the DOE Standard that addresses seismic risk analysis and capacity evaluation in DOE facilities. DOE-STD-1020 refers to the requirements in American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 4-98, now superseded by ASCE 4-16, that shall be met in performing dynamic response analyses and generating in-structure response spectra, provided that such requirements are consistent with the requirements of ASCE/Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) 43-05. Moreover, the results presented herein could also aid in the updating of section C3.1.1. of ASCE 4-16 to account for the effects of aging on the stiffness of reinforced elements and American Concrete Institute (ACI) 349.3R-18, “Report on Evaluation and Repair of Existing Nuclear Safety-Related Concrete Structures.” Ultimately, this work can assist the risk assessment of potential lifetime extension of the existing US commercial nuclear fleet (light water reactors) and the safety analysis of the emerging advanced nuclear reactors. The proposed proof-of-concept methodology employs open-source DOE computational tools and is transferable to commercial software commonly used by engineering firms.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SSA-A spacecraft magnetic tests

In the initial magnetic tests the spacecraft perm moment as received was 43 milliampere-meter squared (pole-cm), which was reduced by deperm treatment to milliampere-meter squared. Facility fluxgate probe bias results indicated Z axis bias at the SSS-A fluxgate magnetometer position to be about one half nanotesla (gamma) after Z axis deperm. The ASCS magnetometers, 01 and 02, were successfully aligned and proper operation of the ASCS system were verified. The spacecraft fluxgate magnetometer was calibrated in both the high and low sensitivity modes after a defective 01 electronics card was replaced. Problems were encountered in the Z axis search coil during calibration and the test was re-scheduled. Final test results indicated that the total perm moment could not be reduced any lower than 35 milliampere-meter squared by deperm treatment. However, the Z axis moment decreased from 22 milliampere-meter squared to 6 milliampere-meter squared after deperm. Correct operation and calibration was verified for all three axes of the spacecraft fluxgate magnetometer and no significant bias was observed during stray field testing. Null and spot calibration of the ASCS magnetometer was completed and the measured spin and attitude coil moments were: 2535 and 9820 milliampere-meter squared respectively.

Roy, T. N.↗

Comparison of Stirling engines for use with a 25-kW disk-electric conversion system

Heat engines were evaluated for terrestrial solar heat receivers. The Stirling Engine was identified as one of the most promising engines for terrestrial applications. The potential to meet the Department of Energy (DOE) goals for performance and cost can be met by the free-piston Stirling engine. NASA Lewis is providing technical management for an Advanced Stirling Conversion System (ASCS) through a cooperative interagency agreement with DOE. Parallel contracts were awarded for conceptual designs of an ASCS. Each design will feature a free-piston Stirling engine, a liquid-metal heat pipe receiver, and a means to provide about 25 kW of electric power to a utility grid while meeting long-term performance and goals. The Mechanical Technology, Ins. (MTI) design incorporates a linear alternator to directly convert the solar energy to electricity while the Stirling Technology Company (STC) generates electrical power indirectly by using a hydraulic output to a ground-bases hydraulic pump/motor coupled to a rotating alternator. Both designs use technology which can reasonably be expected to be available in the 1980's. The ASCS designs using a free-piston Stirling engine, a heat transport system, a receiver, and the methods of providing electricity to the utility grid will be discussed.

Shaltens, Richard K.↗

Preliminary design of an advanced Stirling system for terrestrial solar energy conversion

A preliminary design was generated for an advanced Stirling conversion system (ASCS) that will be capable of delivering about 25 kW of electric power to an electric utility grid. Stirling engines are being evaluated for terrestrial solar applications. A two-year task to complete detailed design, fabrication, assembly and testing of an ASCS prototype began in April, 1990. The ASCS is designed to deliver maximum power per year over a range of solar inputs with a design life of 30 years (60,000 h). The ACSC has a long-term cost goal of about $450 per kilowatt, exclusive of the 11-m parabolic dish concentrator. The proposed system includes a Stirling engine with high-pressure hydraulic output, coupled with a bent axis variable displacement hydraulic motor and a rotary induction generator. The major thrusts of the preliminary design are described, including material selection for the hot-end components, heat transport system (reflux pool boiler) design, system thermal response, improved manufacturability, FMECA/FTA analysis, updated manufacturing cost estimate, and predicted system performance.

White, M. A.↗

AXAF user interfaces for heterogeneous analysis environments

The AXAF Science Center (ASC) will develop software to support all facets of data center activities and user research for the AXAF X-ray Observatory, scheduled for launch in 1999. The goal is to provide astronomers with the ability to utilize heterogeneous data analysis packages, that is, to allow astronomers to pick the best packages for doing their scientific analysis. For example, ASC software will be based on IRAF, but non-IRAF programs will be incorporated into the data system where appropriate. Additionally, it is desired to allow AXAF users to mix ASC software with their own local software. The need to support heterogeneous analysis environments is not special to the AXAF project, and therefore finding mechanisms for coordinating heterogeneous programs is an important problem for astronomical software today. The approach to solving this problem has been to develop two interfaces that allow the scientific user to run heterogeneous programs together. The first is an IRAF-compatible parameter interface that provides non-IRAF programs with IRAF's parameter handling capabilities. Included in the interface is an application programming interface to manipulate parameters from within programs, and also a set of host programs to manipulate parameters at the command line or from within scripts. The parameter interface has been implemented to support parameter storage formats other than IRAF parameter files, allowing one, for example, to access parameters that are stored in data bases. An X Windows graphical user interface called 'agcl' has been developed, layered on top of the IRAF-compatible parameter interface, that provides a standard graphical mechanism for interacting with IRAF and non-IRAF programs. Users can edit parameters and run programs for both non-IRAF programs and IRAF tasks. The agcl interface allows one to communicate with any command line environment in a transparent manner and without any changes to the original environment. For example, the authors routinely layer the GUI on top of IRAF, ksh, SMongo, and IDL. The agcl, based on the facilities of a system called Answer Garden, also has sophisticated support for examining documentation and help files, asking questions of experts, and developing a knowledge base of frequently required information. Thus, the GUI becomes a total environment for running programs, accessing information, examining documents, and finding human assistance. Because the agcl can communicate with any command-line environment, most projects can make use of it easily. New applications are continually being found for these interfaces. It is the authors' intention to evolve the GUI and its underlying parameter interface in response to these needs - from users as well as developers - throughout the astronomy community. This presentation describes the capabilities and technology of the above user interface mechanisms and tools. It also discusses the design philosophies guiding the work, as well as hopes for the future.

Mandel, Eric↗

Specification Reformulation During Specification Validation

The goal of the ARIES Simulation Component (ASC) is to uncover behavioral errors by 'running' a specification at the earliest possible points during the specification development process. The problems to be overcome are the obvious ones the specification may be large, incomplete, underconstrained, and/or uncompilable. This paper describes how specification reformulation is used to mitigate these problems. ASC begins by decomposing validation into specific validation questions. Next, the specification is reformulated to abstract out all those features unrelated to the identified validation question thus creating a new specialized specification. ASC relies on a precise statement of the validation question and a careful application of transformations so as to preserve the essential specification semantics in the resulting specialized specification. This technique is a win if the resulting specialized specification is small enough so the user my easily handle any remaining obstacles to execution. This paper will: (1) describe what a validation question is; (2) outline analysis techniques for identifying what concepts are and are not relevant to a validation question; and (3) identify and apply transformations which remove these less relevant concepts while preserving those which are relevant.

Benner, Kevin M.↗

The advanced stellar compass onboard the Oersted satellite

The advanced stellar compass (ASC) star tracker installed onboard the Danish Oersted satellite designed to map the earth's magnetic vector field is presented. The ASC instrument will provide attitude data for the satellite and its payload. It consists of a CCD camera connected to a microcomputer, and operates by comparing star images from camera frames with its internal star catalogs. The instrument design is detailed, considering its key parameters, operating principles, and the different types of noise and error sources. A ground-based real sky evaluation and the calibration of the ASC are reported.

Jorgensen, John L.↗

Processing and Preparation of Advanced Stirling Convertors for Extended Operation at NASA Glenn Research Center

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Space Company (LMSC), Sunpower Inc., and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing an Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system on space science missions. This generator will make use of the free-piston Stirling convertors to achieve higher conversion efficiency than currently available alternatives. NASA GRC is supporting the development of the ASRG by providing extended operation of several Sunpower Inc. Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs). In the past year and a half, eight ASCs have operated in continuous, unattended mode in both air and thermal vacuum environments. Hardware, software, and procedures were developed to prepare each convertor for extended operation with intended durations on the order of tens of thousands of hours. Steps taken to prepare a convertor for long-term operation included geometry measurements, thermocouple instrumentation, evaluation of working fluid purity, evacuation with bakeout, and high purity charge. Actions were also taken to ensure the reliability of support systems, such as data acquisition and automated shutdown checkouts. Once a convertor completed these steps, it underwent short-term testing to gather baseline performance data before initiating extended operation. These tests included insulation thermal loss characterization, low-temperature checkout, and full-temperature and power demonstration. This paper discusses the facilities developed to support continuous, unattended operation, and the processing results of the eight ASCs currently on test.

Oriti, Salvatore M.↗

Processing and Preparation of Advanced Stirling Convertors for Extended Operation

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Space Company (LMSC), Sunpower Inc., and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing an Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system on space science missions. This generator will make use of the free-piston Stirling convertors to achieve higher conversion efficiency than currently available alternatives. NASA GRC is supporting the development of the ASRG by providing extended operation of several Sunpower Inc. Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs). In the past year and a half, eight ASCs have operated in continuous, unattended mode in both air and thermal vacuum environments. Hardware, software, and procedures were developed to prepare each convertor for extended operation with intended durations on the order of tens of thousands of hours. Steps taken to prepare a convertor for long-term operation included geometry measurements, thermocouple instrumentation, evaluation of working fluid purity, evacuation with bakeout, and high purity charge. Actions were also taken to ensure the reliability of support systems, such as data acquisition and automated shutdown checkouts. Once a convertor completed these steps, it underwent short-term testing to gather baseline performance data before initiating extended operation. These tests included insulation thermal loss characterization, low-temperature checkout, and full-temperature and power demonstration. This paper discusses the facilities developed to support continuous, unattended operation, and the processing results of the eight ASCs currently on test.

Oriti, Salvatore M.↗

Incorporating Vibration Test Results for the Advanced Stirling Convertor into the System Dynamic Model

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LM), and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. As part of the extended operation testing of this power system, the Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC) at NASA GRC undergo a vibration test sequence intended to simulate the vibration history that an ASC would experience when used in an ASRG for a space mission. During these tests, a data system collects several performance-related parameters from the convertor under test for health monitoring and analysis. Recently, an additional sensor recorded the slip table position during vibration testing to qualification level. The System Dynamic Model (SDM) integrates Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass, spring, damper systems, and electrical characteristics of the linear alternator and controller. This Paper presents a comparison of the performance of the ASC when exposed to vibration to that predicted by the SDM when exposed to the same vibration.

Meer, David W.↗

An Estimate of the Size and Shape of Sunspot Cycle 24 Based on its Early Cycle Behavior using the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann Shape-Fitting Function

On the basis of 12-month moving averages (12-mma) of monthly mean sunspot number (R), sunspot cycle 24 had its minimum amplitude (Rm = 1.7) in December 2008. At 12 mo past minimum, R measured 8.3, and at 18 mo past minimum, it measured 16.4. Thus far, the maximum month-to-month rate of rise in 12-mma values of monthly mean sunspot number (AR(t) max) has been 1.7, having occurred at elapsed times past minimum amplitude (t) of 14 and 15 mo. Compared to other sunspot cycles of the modern era, cycle 24?s Rm and AR(t) max (as observed so far) are the smallest on record, suggesting that it likely will be a slow-rising, long-period sunspot cycle of below average maximum amplitude (RM). Supporting this view is the now observed relative strength of cycle 24?s geomagnetic minimum amplitude as measured using the 12-mma value of the aa-geomagnetic index (aam = 8.4), which also is the smallest on record, having occurred at t equals 8 and 9 mo. From the method of Ohl (the inferred preferential association between RM and aam), one predicts RM = 55 +/- 17 (the ?1 se prediction interval) for cycle 24. Furthermore, from the Waldmeier effect (the inferred preferential association between the ascent duration (ASC) and RM) one predicts an ASC longer than 48 mo for cycle 24; hence, maximum amplitude occurrence should be after December 2012. Application of the Hathaway-Wilson-Reichmann shape-fitting function, using an RM = 70 and ASC = 56 mo, is found to adequately fit the early sunspot number growth of cycle 24.

Wilson, Robert M.↗