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Characterization of the procoagulant phenotype of amniotic fluid across gestation in rhesus macaques and humans

Background: Amniotic fluid (AF) plays a key role in fetal development, yet the evolving composition of AF and its effects of hemostasis and thrombosis are poorly understood. Objectives: Here, we aim to determine how the evolving molecular composition of AF relates to its procoagulant properties. Methods: We analyzed the proteomes, lipidomes and procoagulant properties of AF obtained by amniocentesis from rhesus macaque and human pregnancies at gestational-age matched timepoints. Results When added to human plasma, both rhesus and human AF accelerated clotting time and fibrin generation. We identified proteomic modules associated with clotting time and enriched for coagulation-related pathways. Proteins known to be involved in hemostasis were highly correlated with each other and their intensity of expression varied across gestation in both rhesus and humans. Inhibition of contact pathway did not affect the procoagulant effect of AF. Blocking tissue factor pathway inhibitor reversed the ability of AF to block the generation of FXa. The prothrombinase activity of AF was inhibited by phospholipid inhibitors. The levels of phosphatidylserine in AF were inversely correlated with clotting time. AF promoted platelet activation and secretion in plasma. Conclusions: The addition of AF to plasma enhances coagulation in a manner dependent on phospholipids as well as the presence of proteases and other proteins that directly regulate coagulation. We describe a correlation between clotting time and expression of coagulation proteins and phosphatidylserine in both rhesus and human AF, supporting the use rhesus models for future studies of AF biology.

amniotic fluid

Vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (FLT1) interactions with amyloid-beta in Alzheimer’s disease: A putative biomarker of amyloid-induced vascular damage

We have identified FLT1 as a protein that changes during Alzheimer's disease (AD) whereby higher brain protein levels are associated with more amyloid, more tau, and faster longitudinal cognitive decline. Given FLT1's role in angiogenesis and immune activation, we hypothesized that FLT1 is upregulated in response to amyloid pathology, driving a vascular-immune cascade resulting in neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. We sought to determine (1) if in vivo FLT1 levels (CSF and plasma) associate with biomarkers of AD neuropathology or differ between diagnostic staging in an aged cohort enriched for early disease, and (2) whether FLT1 expression interacts with amyloid on downstream outcomes, such as phosphorylated tau levels and cognitive performance. Additionally, we sought to replicate FLT1 interactions in the brain. The results showed that higher levels of FLT1 in CSF and post-mortem brain tissue related to increased tau, particularly among amyloid positive individuals. These analyses help clarify the potential utility of FLT1 as a biomarker among individuals with evidence of brain amyloidosis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES

Synthesizing land use and demographic change in Southeast Asia’s smaller urbanized areas from 2000–2015

The majority of the human population now reside in urban areas today. The United Nations estimates that nearly half of all urban dwellers currently live in cities smaller than 500 000 persons and the majority of future urban growth will take place in Asia and Africa, likely in these smaller urban areas, not mega cities. Thus, understanding the factors that influence urban demographic trajectories in small urban areas is critical to address sustainable and equitable policy initiatives related to food security, changing climate hazard exposure, and economic opportunities. Here we focus on Southeast Asia—a region historically characterized by lower urban population proportions, yet with a rapidly shifting dynamic demographic—to examine correlates of demographic change among smaller cities. We combine two open-source satellite-informed datasets: GHS urban center database (2015) and age-sex gridded data from WorldPop to calculate socio-demographic characteristics to model drivers of change in annualized urban population growth from 2000–2015 for 505 urbanized places. We find a general pattern of decreasing dependency ratios as city-size increases for most urban areas in Southeast Asia. Higher rates of growth and more variation is observed for smaller cities—those with fewer than 300 000 persons, the lowest population limit for UN data on urbanization. When examining covariates of urban population growth, we find significant statistical associations of population change in smaller urbanized areas with climatic, economic, and land cover/land use variables, but with country-specific variations. Characterizing a continuum of urban population development in the context of changing environmental, economic and climate conditions has been an important sustainable development and equity issue for decades, but newer analysis of city-level drivers allows for systematic inquiry thus moving beyond total population counts for policy-relevant insight.

Southeast Asia synthesis

Summary of LWRS Research in Addressing RPV Research Gaps in NRC EMDA Report

Reactor Pressure Vessels (RPVs) are critical components in nuclear reactors, housing the reactor core and coolant under extreme conditions of temperature, pressure, and radiation. These harsh environments contribute to the degradation of RPV materials over time, presenting challenges for extending reactor operations beyond their original design lifespans. The NRC Expanded Materials Degradation Assessment (EMDA) report volume 3 have been instrumental in guiding research to support extending the operational life of light water reactors (LWRs) up to 80 years. It provides a comprehensive framework to address technical challenges related to aging and degradation mechanisms in RPVs. The LWRS program has played a key role in advancing this research, supporting projects such as the UCSB ATR-2 Experiment, material testing from Zion and Palisades reactors, and the development of advanced mini-compact tension testing techniques. These efforts have been crucial in identifying and addressing gaps in our understanding of RPV aging, contributing to the successful subsequent license renewals of eight LWR units in the U.S. The EMDA report volume 3, built on the Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) analysis from earlier versions of the EPRI Materials Degradation Matrix (MDM) and Issue Management Tables (IMTs), provides a detailed assessment of RPV degradation mechanisms. However, as EPRI has updated the MDM and IMT, it is important to revisit research priorities and methodologies to reflect these changes. The revised MDM and IMT may introduce new factors affecting long-term RPV performance and safety, highlighting the need for continued research and updated guidance to ensure the reliable and safe operation of reactors beyond 80 years.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Systematic engineering for production of anti-aging sunscreen compound in Pseudomonas putida

Sunscreen has been used for thousands of years to protect skin from ultraviolet radiation. However, the use of modern commercial sunscreen containing oxybenzone, ZnO, and TiO 2 has raised concerns due to their negative effects on human health and the environment. In this study, we aim to establish an efficient microbial platform for production of shinorine, a UV light absorbing compound with anti-aging properties. First, we methodically selected an appropriate host for shinorine production by analyzing central carbon flux distribution data from prior studies alongside predictions from genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs). We enhanced shinorine productivity through CRISPRi-mediated downregulation and utilized shotgun proteomics to pinpoint potential competing pathways. Simultaneously, we improved the shinorine biosynthetic pathway by refining its design, optimizing promoter usage, and altering the strength of ribosome binding sites. Finally, we conducted amino acid feeding experiments under various conditions to identify the key limiting factors in shinorine production. The study combines meta-analysis of 13 C-metabolic flux analysis, GEMs, synthetic biology, CRISPRi-mediated gene downregulation, and omics analysis to improve shinorine production, demonstrating the potential of Pseudomonas putida KT2440 as platform for shinorine production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Dataset 1: A National and City Dataset on Human Factors in Pooled Rideshare, 2021

Dataset 1: A National and City Dataset on Human Factors in Pooled Rideshare, 2021. Dataset Description: Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Survey - Phase 1 (2021, N = 5,385). This dataset captures responses from a nationally representative sample of 5,385 adults across the United States to understand public acceptance, preferences, and behavioral intentions related to pooled rideshare (PR) services. The primary objective of this research is to provide actionable insights to inform the design, deployment, and policy development of sustainable shared mobility systems. Data was collected via an online survey administered through a national panel provider. Participants ranged in age from 18 to 95 years, and representation from all U.S. regions. The survey instrument was designed to explore numerous dimensions related to PR adoption including demographic traits, current travel habits, rideshare familiarity, trust, safety, environmental attitudes, and user experience preferences. Both rideshare users and non-users were included, offering a diverse range of perspectives. - Phase_1_Final - The dataset includes survey items developed from literature reviews, and prior field studies. Each row represents an individual respondent, and each column corresponds to a variable such as willingness to use pooled rideshare, attitudes toward specific service features, and sociodemographic data. The data is available in both .CSV and .SAV formats. - Phase_1_Final_MapFile - The accompanying data dictionary explains all variable labels, response scales, and codes. An .XLSX format of the full survey instrument is also included to support interpretation and reuse of the dataset.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI

A Community Guide to Regulatory Barriers Affecting Microgrids (Reports 1-3)

In response to growing risks of power outages from extreme weather and aging infrastructure, communities are increasingly exploring the potential of microgrids to provide reliable energy access. Microgrids offer promising solutions to meet this challenge but face a complex landscape of non-technical barriers, particularly regulations concerning the provision and distribution of energy. Most existing legal and regulatory frameworks were designed for a centralized, one-way power system, and are often poorly suited to handle systems that independently balance distributed energy resources with local load. This three-part report series provides a strategic analysis of existing regulatory and legal factors affecting microgrid deployments to help non-technical community leaders and decision-makers better understand the feasibility of a microgrid in their community. -Report No. 1: Foundational Issues Facing Microgrids details the universal policy barriers all microgrids face, including utility interconnection processes, rate structures, and local permitting. -Report No. 2: Single Property Microgrids outlines how direct asset ownership and operating behind-the-meter can bypass some regulatory oversight, using the Blue Lake Rancheria microgrid as a case study. -Report No. 3: Multi-Property Microgrids tackles the complex challenges of crossing public rights-of-way and navigating utility franchise rights, highlighting the Coventry microgrid project. The series equips decision-makers with phased frameworks to navigate financial and regulatory complexities, engage effectively with local utilities and Authorities Having Jurisdiction (AHJs), and structure successful microgrid projects.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Psychosocial experiences are associated with human brain mitochondrial biology

Psychosocial experiences affect brain health and aging trajectories, but the molecular pathways underlying these associations remain unclear. Normal brain function relies on energy transformation by mitochondria oxidative phosphorylation (OxPhos). Two main lines of evidence position mitochondria both as targets and drivers of psychosocial experiences. On the one hand, chronic stress exposure and mood states may alter multiple aspects of mitochondrial biology; on the other hand, functional variations in mitochondrial OxPhos capacity may alter social behavior, stress reactivity, and mood. But are psychosocial exposures and subjective experiences linked to mitochondrial biology in the human brain? By combining longitudinal antemortem assessments of psychosocial factors with postmortem brain (dorsolateral prefrontal cortex) proteomics in older adults, we find that higher well-being is linked to greater abundance of the mitochondrial OxPhos machinery, whereas higher negative mood is linked to lower OxPhos protein content. Combined, positive and negative psychosocial factors explained 18 to 25% of the variance in the abundance of OxPhos complex I, the primary biochemical entry point that energizes brain mitochondria. Moreover, interrogating mitochondrial psychobiological associations in specific neuronal and nonneuronal brain cells with single-nucleus RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) revealed strong cell-type-specific associations for positive psychosocial experiences and mitochondria in glia but opposite associations in neurons. As a result, these “mind-mitochondria” associations were masked in bulk RNA-seq, highlighting the likely underestimation of true psychobiological effect sizes in bulk brain tissues. Thus, self-reported psychosocial experiences are linked to human brain mitochondrial phenotypes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Measurement report: A comparative analysis of an intensive incursion of fluorescing African dust particles over Puerto Rico and another over Spain

Measurements during episodes of African dust, made with two wideband integrated bioaerosol spectrometers (WIBSs), one on the northeastern coast of Puerto Rico and the other in the city of León, Spain, show unmistakable, bioaerosol-like fluorescing aerosol particles (FAPs) that can be associated with these dust episodes. The Puerto Rico event occurred during a major incursion of African dust during June 2020. The León event occurred in the late winter and spring of 2022, when widespread, elevated layers of dust inundated the Iberian Peninsula. Satellite and back-trajectory analyses confirm that dust from northern Africa was the source of the particles during both events. The WIBSs measure the size of individual particles in the range from 0.5 to 30 µm, derive a shape factor, and classify seven types of fluorescence from the FAPs. In general, it is not possible to directly determine the specific biological identity from fluorescence signatures; however, measurements of these types of bioaerosols in laboratory studies allow us to compare ambient fluorescence patterns with whole microbial cells measured under controlled conditions. Here we introduce some new metrics that offer a more quantitative approach for comparing FAP characteristics derived from particles measured under different environmental conditions. The analysis highlights the similarities and differences at the two locations and reveals differences that can be attributed to the age and history of the dust plumes, e.g., the amount of time that the air masses were in the mixed layer and the frequency of precipitation along the air mass trajectory.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Microscopic Measurement: Need for Nuclear Material Sample Specimen Characterization Capability

The Surveillance, Fabrication, and Off-Site Operations team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is beginning an update to the nuclear material machining lab in Superblock. Plutonium and other nuclear materials tend to accelerate the aging process for equipment and machines that would otherwise be maintainable for long lives. They have their lifespans shortened from deteriorated seals, embrittled polymer components, accelerated corrosion, and damage to electronics from exposure to radioactive materials. The cost of installation of equipment into a glove box (GB) tends to outstrip the cost of the equipment itself. Due to the magnification of cost, the historical approach to equipment installs has been to purchase and install the highest-quality and most robust equipment available to maximize time between failures and updates. To make room for the installation of a new lathe, the inspection GB is being moved to a different location within the machining lab. As part of the overall effort, the equipment within the inspection GB is being revisited. Current measurement capabilities are antiquated and starting to become problematic due to age. Advances in metrology are sought for more comprehensive characterization of scientific samples. This document aims to identify several options for the replacement of current measurement equipment and identify a system for purchase and eventual installation. The intention is not to select the cheapest system, but rather to identify a system that best meets the needs of both the operators and principal investigators (PI). Following the convention of the SYSM-5620 Design Thinking and System Engineering, it was determined that a laser confocal measurement system from Keyence is the most suitable option for our programmatic need. Form factor, capability, and maintainability were considered. Along with stakeholder input, to ensure the best decision for the Nuclear Material Technology Program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Effects of primordial black holes on IGM history

Currently the asteroid mass window (mass ∼ 10$^{17}$- 10$^{21}$ grams) remains unconstrained for Primordial Black Holes (PBHs) to make up all of the dark matter content of the universe. Given these PBHs have very small masses, their Hawking temperature can be up to hundreds of keV. This study investigates the potential impacts of PBH Hawking radiation on the intergalactic medium from z ∼ 800-25, namely studying the ionization history, kinetic gas temperature, and ultimately the 21 cm signature. We find that for masses on the low edge of the asteroid mass window, there are up two orders of magnitude increases in the ionization fraction and kinetic gas temperature by redshift 25, and the 21 cm spin temperature can differ from non-PBH cosmology by factors of a few. This analysis results in maximum differential brightness temperatures of +17 mK for our lightest PBH masses of 2.12 × 10$^{16}$g. We also show maximal 53 mK discrepancies in differential brightness temperatures between our PBH and non-PBH cosmologies for our lightest PBH mass, while our heaviest PBH mass of 1.65 × 10$^{17}$g shows only 0.5 mK variations. We find the Hawking-radiated electrons and positrons are instrumental in driving these IGM modifications. This study shows the necessity for a rigorous treatment of Hawking radiation in PBH cosmological observables from the dark ages through cosmic dawn.

dark matter theory

Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches to Analyzing Pipeline Incidents in the United States (2010–2024)

This study applies machine learning methods to analyze natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States using the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) Gas Distribution Incident Dataset (2010–2024). The dataset includes over 600 variables describing incident characteristics, infrastructure attributes, and contributing factors associated with unintentional gas releases. The objective is to assess whether these features can reliably predict the underlying cause of pipeline failures. Multinomial logistic regression and Random Forest models were developed to classify incident causes, including excavation damage, corrosion, equipment failure, and natural forces. Results show that excavation damage is both the most frequent and most predictable cause, with models achieving strong performance for this category. However, when excavation damage is excluded, model accuracy declines significantly, with some models performing near random levels. Across all approaches, severe class imbalance and limited variability in key predictors constrain predictive performance. Pipeline age and diameter emerge as the most influential variables, but they provide insufficient discriminatory power to distinguish among less frequent failure types. These findings indicate that non-excavation-related incidents are rare, heterogeneous, and weakly represented in the dataset, limiting the effectiveness of machine learning classification. Overall, this study highlights the structural limitations of the PHMSA dataset for predictive modeling and underscores the need for improved data balance and feature enrichment. The results reinforce excavation damage prevention as the most impactful strategy for reducing pipeline incidents.

03 NATURAL GAS

Studies of optical and chemical properties of aged and fresh biomass burning absorbing aerosols for climate models

Particulate emissions from burning fuels from sub-Saharan Africa is currently poorly characterized. With increasing population and industrialization, emissions are expected to grow. Optical methods for measuring light absorption in the ultraviolet (UV) and visible (vis) regions of the spectrum are crucial for understanding the optical properties of BB aerosols (Bond and Bergstrom, 2006; Lack and Cappa, 2010; Moschos et al., 2021). One such instrument is the dual-spot AE33 model aethalometer is a common filter-based instrument that can be used to measure aerosol absorption properties (Hansen et al., 1984). This instrument has many figures of merit; however, the method's limitations include potential biases from scattering within the filter material, multiple scattering effects of the particles, filter loading (i.e. particle shadowing), and the need for wavelength-specific correction factors (Cλ), which depend on accurate intercomparison with other in situ techniques (Bond et al., 1999; Collaud Coen et al., 2010). This work aims to: 1. Optically characterize BB aerosol generated from African fuel 2. Correct the aethalometer at multiple wavelengths 3. Parametrize these correction factors. 4. Combusting the same fuels with two difference tube furnace systems assess the general applicability of this flexible means of producing BB aerosol. This was accomplished by conducting laboratory studies at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and North Carolina A&T State University (NCA&T), where aethalometer measurements were compared to in situ optical measurements. Mass cross sections of BB aerosol from these under-studied fuels will be determined along with their wavelength dependence.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

Neighborhood sociome factors and pediatric asthma exacerbations: Protective role of tree crown density and importance of pharmacy access in Chicago's south side

Abstract Background Pediatric asthma exacerbations remain a critical public health concern, particularly in historically underserved urban settings. Objective This study investigates sociome factors—the social context of disease—associated with asthma exacerbations among children living in Chicago's South Side, leveraging clinical and publicly available generalizable census tract‐level datasets from agencies including ChiVes, the City of Chicago Data Portal, EPA, Census Bureau, HUD, NOAA, and more. The aim is to uncover novel hypotheses for potential new interventions. Methods A generalized linear model assessed associations with the outcome of asthma exacerbations while accounting for clustering at the patient level. Predictors included all variables from the Sociome Data Commons, including social, environmental, behavioral, economic, housing, and school variables. Results Predictors of decreased risk included patient age (+4.8 years, −22%), tree crown density (+6% coverage, −17%), parks per acre (+0.41, −8%), and labor market engagement (+0.8 points, −9%). Conversely, predictors of increased risk included increased distance to the nearest pharmacy (+0.28 miles, +12%), limited English skills (+2.3%, +10%), higher inequality (+0.08 points, +8%), and visits in the Spring (+11%) and Fall (+20%). Conclusion The results suggest that tree crown density, a novel finding in the context of asthma exacerbations, may play a protective role. Limited access to health care facilities such as pharmacies continues to complicate care. Clinical Implications These findings provide hypotheses for future interventions for long‐standing asthma disparities.

Allergy

The sources and diurnal variations of submicron aerosols in a coastal–rural environment near Houston, US

Aerosol properties were characterized at a rural site southwest of Houston from May to September 2022 during the intensive operation periods (IOPs) of the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER). Backward trajectory analysis reveals three major air mass types: marine air mass from the Gulf, urban air mass influenced by urban emissions, and regional air mass. Marine aerosols typically show a bimodal size distribution and have the lowest particle number and mass concentrations of PM 1 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 1 µm), while aerosols from air masses strongly influenced by urban emissions exhibit the highest concentrations. Organic aerosol (OA) accounts for more than 50 % of PM 1 for urban and regional air masses, whereas sulfate is comparable to OA in marine air masses. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis of aerosol mass spectra identifies 6 OA factors: hydrocarbon-like OA (HOA), OA from the oxidation of monoterpenes (MT-SOA), OA from the reactive uptake of isoprene epoxydiols by acidic sulfate particles (isoprene-SOA), oxygenated OA arising from shipping emissions (shipping-OOA), and two oxygenated OA factors with high O : C ratios (OOA1 and OOA2). OOA2 has the highest O : C ratio and exhibits elevated mass concentration in the afternoon. Similar diurnal variation of highly oxidized OA factors was commonly observed in the Houston area during previous studies and attributed to the SOA formation by photochemistry and mixing from aloft. Here, using air mass backward trajectories and a 1-D box model, we show the diurnal trend of OOA2 mass concentration is instead driven by changes in air mass arriving at the rural site. The air mass changes are likely caused by the shift between land breezes and sea/bay breezes. Within the same air mass type (e.g., either urban or marine air mass), OOA2 mass concentration is largely independent of wind direction and shows essentially no diurnal variation, suggesting OOA2 is related to aged OA with minimal influence by local emissions. This study helps identify the major sources of OA in the Houston region and highlights the impacts of both atmospheric chemistry and meteorology on aerosol properties in the coastal–rural environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Rhenium Isotope Reconnaissance of Uranium Ore Concentrates

Exploration of natural isotopic variations of the element rhenium (Re) is in its infancy, with initial studies revealing isotopic fractionation in a variety of geological materials. Here, in this work, we investigate Re isotope variation as a new geochemical tool, given its redox-sensitive properties and affinity for organic matter and sulfides. In this work, Re abundance and isotope ratio data were collected from uranium ore concentrates (UOCs) across a variety of depositional ages, locations, geologic settings, and deposit types. Ore types from which the UOC were derived include sandstone, unconformity, and quartz-pebble (QP) conglomerate. To isolate Re from the U-rich matrix of UOCs, a new purification method utilizing DGA ion exchange resin was developed. We found that UOCs exhibit a wide range of Re isotope ratios, with sandstone ore-derived UOCs having the isotopically lightest values, QP conglomerate ore-derived UOCs having the heaviest, and unconformity ore-derived UOCs in between (with some overlap with sandstone UOCs). The Re isotope ratio range observed in UOCs extends previously reported values by more than a factor of two. Industrial processing (e.g., incomplete recovery of Re from ore, contamination, fractionation during processing) may play a role in the isotopic variability in the UOCs. However, systematic differences between ore types suggest that the depositional setting is a significant factor. For nuclear forensic investigations, Re isotopic compositions combined with data from other isotopic systems provide geochemical signatures that can aid in provenance assessment of UOCs. Regardless of the specific causes for the wide range of Re isotope ratios in UOCs, these initial data indicate Re is a promising tool for nuclear forensic investigations on samples from early in the nuclear fuel cycle.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Factors influencing water quality in surface water and alluvial groundwaters downgradient of a reclaimed surface coal mine in the Powder River Basin of southeastern Montana, USA

Abstract Coal mining and reclamation can have a profound influence on hydrogeologic systems, with clear consequences for groundwater quality, yet their long-term influence on downgradient water quality over time following reclamation is less well documented. Geochemical trends were evaluated in water quality downgradient of a fully reclaimed landscape at the former Big Sky Mine in the Rosebud Creek watershed (southeastern Montana, USA), over a 3-year period (2020–2022), including bond release in 2022. Within 6 km downgradient from the reclaimed area, sulfate concentrations decreased from approximately 3500 to 1800 mg l −1 within the Miller Coulee alluvial aquifer. Major ions, δ 34 S SO4 values, and residence time tracers suggest that the observed decreases in sulfate concentration result from a combination of dilution by mixed-age inflows and incomplete transit of the high salinity plume from the mine boundary. Both bedrock and alluvial aquifers of the Rosebud Creek corridor contained contributions of millennia-old regional groundwater, which may serve to mitigate mine-derived high salinity waters. Rosebud Creek, which traverses the outflow zone of Miller Coulee in the study area, exhibited high sulfate concentrations during low flows and consistent downgradient increases in sulfate concentration. The possibility of plume dynamics in Miller Coulee suggests that the greatest water quality impacts may not yet have reached Rosebud Creek.

Keeshin, Skye I. (ORCID:0009000986449872)

The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink

Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES