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DOE OSTI2023

Demand Estimation of Net Metered Loads for Microgrid Restoration

Microgrids can experience frequency instability while operating in the islanded mode due to a significant demand generation imbalance. Presence of net metered (NM) loads can further complicate accurate demand forecasting. For these loads only the net demand, difference of load demand and generation, is available. This paper presents the various stages observed during microgrid restoration with high penetration of NM loads. Disaggregation of demand and generation from the net metered time series is shown to be essential for accurate demand forecasting in each of these stages. A disaggregation approach is proposed using correlation in the net metered data. Time series analysis is then used to forecast the demand in each stage of the microgrid restoration process. A case study using demand and generation time series data from residential loads, shows that the proposed approach is significantly more accurate for demand forecasting than using only the net-metered time series.

demand forecasting, Microgrid, power system restor↗

DOE OSTI2017

Optimal net-load balancing in smart grids with high PV penetration

Mitigating mismatches in supply demand curve is critical for smooth power grid operation. Traditionally, load curtailment techniques such as Demand Response (DR) have been used for this purpose. However, smart grids with high PV penetration sometimes exhibit supply surplus causing over-voltages. Thus, load curtailment techniques cannot be the only component of a net-load balancing framework. Supply curtailment techniques such as Volt-Var Optimizations are complex and computationally expensive. This increases the complexity of net-load balancing systems used by the grid operator and limits their scalability. Recently, new technologies have been developed that enable the rapid and selective connection of PV modules of an installation to the grid. Taking advantage of these advancements, we develop a unified optimal net-load balancing framework which performs both load and solar curtailment. We show that when the available curtailment values are discrete, this problem is NP-hard and develop bounded approximation algorithms for minimizing the curtailment cost. Our algorithms produce fast solutions, given the tight timing constraints required for grid operation. We also incorporate the notion of fairness to ensure that curtailment is evenly distributed among all the nodes. Finally, we develop an online algorithm which performs net-load balancing using only data available for the current interval. Using both theoretical analysis and practical evaluations, we show that our net-load balancing algorithms provide solutions which are close to optimal in a small amount of time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Gasification of Coal and Biomass: The Route to Net-Negative-Carbon Power and Hydrogen

One promising process that is a candidate for meeting the goals of the US Department of Energy’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative is to gasify a mixture of coal and biomass to yield a syngas, which can have CO2 removed and then be used to produce hydrogen as well as an off-gas that can be used to flexibly produce power. This concept would overall be carbon net-negative and readily meet the 21st Century Power Plant initiative targets of smaller scale MW generation, high ramp rates and turndown, feedstock flexibility, and high efficiency—at a reasonable cost. Moreover, adding the large-scale production of “ultra-green” hydrogen yields a system tailored for the coming hydrogen economy, providing long-term energy storage and an attractive co-product for sale. The objective of the work being led by the Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI), with support by Bechtel Corporation (Bechtel), Gas Technology Institute (GTI), Hamilton Mauer International, Inc. (HMI), Nebraska Public Power District (NPPD), NexantECA, Inc. (Nexant), and Wärtsilä, is to perform a front-end design and engineering (FEED) study on an oxygen-blown gasification system coupled with water-gas shift, pre-combustion CO2 capture, and pressure-swing adsorption working off a coal/biomass mix to yield high-purity hydrogen and a fuel off-gas that can generate power. Several designs are being considered that will be capable of producing 50 MW net from a flexible generator, over 8500 kg/hr of hydrogen, and net-negative CO2 emissions, at an efficiency of 50% net HHV. The plant would be hosted at an NPPD site, where opportunities for enhanced oil recovery and sequestration have been investigated and the need for low-carbon power and hydrogen is imminent. The principal biomass to be used is corn stover—prevalent in Nebraska where the plant will be located—mixed with Powder River Basin (PRB) coal, necessitating a gasifier that can use this feedstock and be flexible to allow other types. Waste plastics will also be reviewed for use. Two oxygen-blown gasifiers have been identified as candidates that have done testing with biomass including corn stover: the GTI gasifier—a high-pressure, fluidized-bed type—and HMI’s, a lower pressure moving-bed type. Both have relative advantages that are being investigated in the Phase I design study, with a resultant down select of one system for which the FEED will be performed in Phase II. The technical tasks for the proposed project are: • Design Development: Completion of design activities necessary to provide inputs for the FEED study. Multiple design cases will be assessed with the selection of the optimal one for the FEED. • Investment Case Preparation: Development of the draft investment case for the proposed process with business cases performed for the proposed host site and two other locations. • Host Site Selection: Evaluation of the two potential host sites within NPPD’s portfolio to select the preferred candidate based on technical, economic, and environmental considerations. • Environmental Information Volume (EIV) Development: Completion of the EIV for the host site. • FEED Study: Completion of a FEED study based on the design selected in Phase I. A Greenhouse Gas Life Cycle Analysis will also be performed for the process. • Update Investment Case: Finalization of the investment case based on findings from the FEED. The advantages of the proposed project are significant. Having an engaged U.S. power utility willing to provide a host site that will produce energy from coal plus a deep and experienced team is critical; the process meets all the goals of DOE’s 21st Century Power Plant initiative at an estimated total plant cost of ~$880M and a production cost of hydrogen of ~$2/kg-H2 while producing net-negative carbon power. If developed, this process has real commercial potential in the United States—supported by EPRI’s initial review of the considerable interest from selected U.S. utilities—and elsewhere around the globe. The process has fewer environmental hurdles compared to other concepts, lowering regulatory and protest risks—providing a pathway to preserving the viability of a critical indigenous energy source by transforming its use to match a changing world. This presentation will outline the motivation for the effort, summarize project plans, work completed to date, results of the Design Development task, and detailed work scope for the remainder of the project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Model Development of a Wind Power Plant Using Neural Net Method to Forecast Wind Power Output (CRADA Final Report)

This project is intended to model wind power plant based on monitored data at the wind power plant. This project will promote the university research in Renewable Energy area and trains the future highly qualified engineers. The dynamic model will be based on neural net model with the input from the two met towers (12 inputs), and the number of turbines in operation (one input). The overall input will be 13 inputs to drive the simulations. The output power at the point of interconnection will be used to tune the neural net weight coefficients. Two neural net concepts will be investigated (the back propagation neural net and the dynamic recurrent neural net with feedback).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

SPRUCE Anaerobic oxidation of methane mitigates net methane production and responds to long-term experimental warming in a northern bog: Supporting data

This data set contains measurements of anaerobic oxidation of methane (AOM), net methane (CH4) production, carbon dioxide (CO2) production, and gross CH4 production measurements from the SPRUCE experiment (Hanson et al. 2017). CH4 is greenhouse gas with 45 times the sustained global warming potential of CO2 over 100 years, which may have significant implications on global climate change. The process of AOM plays a large role in the extent of CH4 emissions from wetland environments like those at the SPRUCE experiment site. This study conducted two on different dates. In experiment 1, net CH4 and CO2 production were measured with a gas chromatograph through the peat profile at in situ temperatures of the SPRUCE plots four times from May to October, 2016 (2016-05 to 2016-10). Two treatments were examined, a Porewater Treatment that was a 1:1 volumetric peat:porewater slurry and a No Porewater Treatment that was field-moist peat with no porewater added. Additionally, net CH4 production were measured at frequent intervals (from 4 hr to 9 d) in peat from selected SPRUCE plots from soil collected on October 16, 2016 (2016-10-16). Samples were collected from the SPRUCE plots, immediately made anaerobic, and transported to the University of Oregon for rate measurements within several days of collection. In experiment 2, AOM, net CH4 production, CO2 production, and gross CH4 production were measured through the peat profile at in situ field temperatures once from samples collected in July, 2021 (2021-07). The same two porewater treatments were examined. AOM was measured with a 13CH4 tracer method using a Picarro G2201-i analyzer for isotopic CO2/CH4 quantification with a small stable isotope module attached. This data set contains three data files in comma separate (*.csv) format. This data set is associated with the following publication: Barney, M, AM Hopple, LL Gregory, JK Keller, and SD Bridgham. 2024. Anaerobic oxidation of methane mitigates net methane production and responds to long-term experimental warming in a northern bog. Soil Biology and Biochemistry, 190, 109316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soilbio.2024.109316.

SPRUCE Experiment, Marcell Experimental Forest, Me↗

DOE OSTI2022

Community-Scale AHA Go Solar Initiative and Net Zero Initiative

The Saint Regis Mohawk Tribe is a sovereign, federally acknowledged Indian Tribe. The Tribal Council created the Akwesasne Housing Authority (AHA) by ordinance in July 1984 and has designated the AHA as its agency for purposes of administering the Tribe’s Indian Housing Block Grant under the Native American Housing and Self-Determination Act of 1996. The Go Solar project will install approximately 615 kilowatts (kW) of solar photovoltaic (PV) facilities to serve housing related buildings on the Tribe’s reservation and use net metering programs to reduce the energy costs for AHA and Tribal members by up to $\$$4,417,501 over the life of the project. AHA will initiate four (4) net zero buildings: two (2) new net zero low-income housing buildings located at Sunrise Acres III, which include the Veterans Supportive Housing Building and the Seniors Supportive Housing building, and one (1) older, existing net zero building used by the Akwesasne Boys & Girls Club (ABGC Building), and (1) Tribal Administration Building.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Analytical Solutions and U-Net Model for Predicting Groundwater Contaminant Plumes in Pump-and-Treat Systems

Pump-and-treat (P&T) is a common technique for groundwater remediation involving the extraction and treatment of contaminated water above ground. Optimizing the design and operation of the P&T well network is essential for maximizing the system’s effectiveness and efficiency. However, this optimization often necessitates many model evaluations, leading to computationally demanding tasks. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates analytical solutions for groundwater dynamics with the U-Net (Ronneberger et al., 2015) deep learning framework to predict groundwater contaminant plume migration under dynamic pumping conditions. By incorporating the Thiem equation (Thiem, 1906) into the input preprocessing, the U-Net model transforms sparse well data into a continuous spatial field that captures the hydraulic impacts of pumping activities. This integration enables the model to leverage both deep learning capabilities and classical physics-based groundwater theories, enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. These advancements can facilitate rapid, large-scale evaluations of P&T optimization simulations, allowing for timely and effective decision-making in well placement and system management. We demonstrate the model's robust performance across both simplified transient 2D models and a more complex 3D heterogeneous site model at the 200 West P&T facility at the Hanford Site. The U-Net-based model offers substantial computational advantages, reducing simulation times significantly compared to full physics-based models and providing a powerful tool for rapid site evaluation and P&T system optimization, such as evaluating alternative P&T well network designs. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced machine learning models to significantly enhance the efficiency and sustainability of groundwater remediation efforts, offering a novel application of U-Net architecture in environmental science.

Pump-and-treat↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Life cycle assessment of co-firing biomass at coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage toward net-zero emissions

Co-firing biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) offers a technological option to decarbonize coal-fired power plants toward net-zero emissions. This study estimates the life cycle emissions of co-firing biomass at coal-fired power plants with CCS and quantifies its variability and uncertainty. Deployment of co-firing BECCS at coal-fired power plants can significantly reduce the life cycle emissions toward the net-zero target but lower the power plant performance, which vary with numerous factors, including coal type, biomass type, co-firing level, and CO 2 capture rate. The breakeven co-firing levels required for biomass at coal-fired power plants with 90 % CO 2 capture to reach net-zero emissions fall with a range roughly from 15 % to 25 % on an energy basis, depending on coal and biomass types. Increasing the CO 2 capture rate from 90 % to 95 % can lower the breakeven co-firing levels by about 5 to 8 percentage points for the biomass resources of interest, which can lower reliance on biomass resources and facilitate large-scale deployment of co-firing BECCS in fossil-rich regions but with limited biomass resources. Furthermore, findings improve the understanding of the techno-environmental performance of co-firing BECCS and inform strategic planning decisions on net-zero emissions in the coal-fired power sector.

Breakeven co-firing level↗

DOE OSTI2023

Protein–protein interactions between tenascin-R and RPTPζ/phosphacan are critical to maintain the architecture of perineuronal nets

Neural plasticity, the ability to alter the structure and function of neural circuits, varies throughout the age of an individual. The end of the hyperplastic period in the central nervous system coincides with the appearance of honeycomb-like structures called perineuronal nets (PNNs) that surround a subset of neurons. PNNs are a condensed form of neural extracellular matrix that include the glycosaminoglycan hyaluronan and extracellular matrix proteins such as aggrecan and tenascin-R (TNR). PNNs are key regulators of developmental neural plasticity and cognitive functions, yet our current understanding of the molecular interactions that help assemble them remains limited. Disruption of Ptprz1, the gene encoding the receptor protein tyrosine phosphatase RPTPζ, altered the appearance of nets from a reticulated structure to puncta on the surface of cortical neuron bodies in adult mice. The structural alterations mirror those found in Tnr -/- mice, and TNR is absent from the net structures that form in dissociated cultures of Ptprz1 -/- cortical neurons. These findings raised the possibility that TNR and RPTPζ cooperate to promote the assembly of PNNs. Here, we show that TNR associates with the RPTPζ ectodomain and provide a structural basis for these interactions. Furthermore, we show that RPTPζ forms an identical complex with tenascin-C, a homolog of TNR that also regulates neural plasticity. Finally, we demonstrate that mutating residues at the RPTPζ–TNR interface impairs the formation of PNNs in dissociated neuronal cultures. Overall, this work sets the stage for analyzing the roles of protein–protein interactions that underpin the formation of nets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2018

Optimal Discrete Net-Load Balancing in Smart Grids with High PV Penetration

Mitigating supply-demand mismatch is essential for smooth power grid operation. Traditionally, load curtailment techniques such as demand response have been used for this purpose. However, these cannot be the only component of a net-load balancing framework for smart grids with high PV penetration. These grids sometimes exhibit supply surplus, causing overvoltages. Currently, these are mitigated using voltage manipulation techniques such as Volt-Var Optimizations, which are computationally expensive, thereby increasing the complexity of grid operations. Taking advantage of recent technological developments that enable rapid selective connection of PV modules of an installation to the grid, we develop a unified net-load balancing framework that performs both load and solar curtailment. We demonstrate that when the available curtailment values are discrete, this problem is NP-hard and we develop bounded approximation algorithms. Our algorithms produce fast solutions, given the tight timing constraints required for grid operation, while ensuring that practical constraints such as fairness, network capacity limits, and so forth are satisfied. We also develop an online algorithm that performs net-load balancing using only data available for the current interval. Using both theoretical analysis and practical evaluations, we show that our net-load balancing algorithms provide solutions that are close to optimal in a small amount of time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

Status of Net Metering: Assessing the Potential to Reach Program Caps

Several states are addressing the issue of net metering program caps, which limit the total amount of net metered generating capacity that can be installed in a state or utility service territory. In this analysis, we examine net metering caps to gain perspective on how long net metering will be available in various jurisdictions under current policies. We also surveyed state practices and experience to understand important policy design considerations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Net-Zero Carbon Microgrids

The microgrid concept has been effective in creating aggregations of distributed energy resources—generation, storage and loads—for resiliency, in the form of energy security. The success of microgrids in bringing energy security to a wide range of customers—from individual residences to commercial and industrial installations to military bases—has been exemplified during power disruptions and extended outages due to extreme weather events, cybersecurity attacks, and equipment failures. Now microgrids have an opportunity to meet the challenges of climate change and contribute to a carbon-free power delivery system. The transition to net-zero starts within microgrids themselves. In fact, today’s microgrids are largely dominated by generators using fossil fuels, natural gas and diesel, with high greenhouse gas emissions. In short, the transition to net-zero means replacing fossil fueled generators with renewable generation in microgrids. This transition is extended by including new dispatchable generation technologies that are 100% carbon-free and that offer additional advantage of a more-dependable and sustainable source of energy and power. Basically, the decarbonization of microgrids requires three elements: 1) maximizing generation from renewable energy resources, 2) management of storage and flexible loads to balance the variability and intermittency of renewable energy resources, and 3) introducing new clean power sources, including hydrogen-based generation and small modular reactors. This report affirms a need for specific focus by governmental agencies at national, regional, and local levels to establish technology, policy, and investment in this area. The intention of the Net-Zero Microgrid (NZM) Program is to inform these constituencies with cross-cutting research and tools for the reduction of GHG in microgrids – to net-zero in the near term eventually to zero in the longer term. The NZM Program is committed to achieving decarbonization for resiliency and for providing clean energy at the local or distribution level, from remote communities to underserved communities, and large industrial and military facilities. The NZM Planning and Design Platform is a core tool to be developed as an early deliverable of the NZM Program because only a fully integrated microgrid-design approach will ensure maximum carbon reduction in energy production.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2013

Evaluation of Model Results and Measured Performance of Net-Zero Energy Homes in Hawaii: Preprint

The Kaupuni community consists of 19 affordable net-zero energy homes that were built within the Waianae Valley of Oahu, Hawaii in 2011. The project was developed for the native Hawaiian community led by the Department of Hawaiian Homelands. This paper presents a comparison of the modeled and measured energy performance of the homes. Over the first year of occupancy, the community as a whole performed within 1% of the net-zero energy goals. The data show a range of performance from house to house with the majority of the homes consistently near or exceeding net-zero, while a few fall short of the predicted net-zero energy performance. The impact of building floor plan, weather, and cooling set point on this comparison is discussed. The project demonstrates the value of using building energy simulations as a tool to assist the project to achieve energy performance goals. Lessons learned from the energy performance monitoring has had immediate benefits in providing feedback to the homeowners, and will be used to influence future energy efficient designs in Hawaii and other tropical climates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2014

Status of Net Metering: Assessing the Potential to Reach Program Caps (Poster)

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Analyzing the Impacts of Variable Renewable Resources on California Net-Load Ramp Events: Preprint

This paper characterizes the ramping features of multiple renewable resources, load and net-load in California using 2016 measured data. The goal of this analysis is to understand the interactions between variable renewable resource ramps and net-load ramps, and delineate the positive and negative impacts. The findings indicated that although the frequency and uncertainty in the system level net-load ramp occurrences increased due to variable renewable integration, there was also a decrease in the average ramp up and down magnitudes by about 20% and 30% respectively, along with decreases in their respective standard deviations by 40% and 20%. At the zonal level, the analyses also indicated a 4-5% decrease in the net-load standard deviations due to wind integration alone at various market scheduling periods. The paper finally concludes with future research needs to better integrate variable renewable ramp forecasts into system operations and planning for economic utilization of resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Strategies to Approach Net-Zero Carbon Sustainable Aviation Fuel via Woody Biomass Gasification and Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

Reducing the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the transportation industry is a key target for achieving global net-zero carbon goals. Wide-spread electrification, efficient engine design, and alternative fuel implementations have been introduced for light-duty vehicles and are projected to significantly reduce light-duty emissions in the near future. Conversely, the aviation sector contributes considerably towards transportation-based carbon emissions, but current projections do not show substantial reductions in carbon emissions over time. Challenges for the aviation sector include low compatibility with electrification, relative inflexibility to variations in fuel properties, and requirement of high energy density fuels. Thus, identifying pathways to decarbonize the aviation sector via liquid low- or net-zero carbon biofuels that are compatible with current aviation infrastructure is crucial. This work investigates the economic feasibility of approaching net-zero carbon sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from woody biomass via gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. In doing so, this assessment identifies the economic opportunities and trade-offs of several carbon mitigation strategies coupled with renewable resource interventions required to approach net-zero carbon fuels via biomass. Renewable natural gas and green hydrogen utilization strategies are assessed to examine the impact of fuel yield improvements versus renewable resource cost. Additionally, both carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and carbon capture and utilization (CCU) are considered in this analysis to help mitigate carbon loss to the atmosphere. Each scenario was assessed on cost, carbon efficiency, energy efficiency, and overall technology-readiness level (TRL). The results of this analysis show that renewable natural gas, green hydrogen, and CCS can be viewed as a low-cost, near-term carbon abatement strategies. However, in the long-term, deployment of more expensive and less technologically mature CCU technologies can make use of point sources of CO2 to boost overall fuel production.

aviation fuel↗