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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,063 records · Page 59
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Reduced ecosystem resilience quantifies fine-scale heterogeneity in tropical forest mortality responses to drought

Sensitivity of forest mortality to drought in carbon-dense tropical forests remains fraught with uncertainty, while extreme droughts are predicted to be more frequent and intense. Here, in this study, the potential of temporal autocorrelation of high-frequency variability in Landsat Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), an indicator of ecosystem resilience, to predict spatial and temporal variations of forest biomass mortality is evaluated against in situ census observations for 64 site-year combinations in Costa Rican tropical dry forests during the 2015 ENSO drought. Temporal autocorrelation, within the optimal moving window of 24 months, demonstrated robust predictive power for in situ mortality (leave-one- out cross-validation R 2 = 0.54), which allows for estimates of annual biomass mortality patterns at 30 m resolution. Subsequent spatial analysis showed substantial fine-scale heterogeneity of forest mortality patterns, largely driven by drought intensity and ecosystem properties related to plant water use such as forest deciduousness and topography. Highly deciduous forest patches demonstrated much lower mortality sensitivity to drought stress than less deciduous forest patches after elevation was controlled. Our results highlight the potential of high-resolution remote sensing to “fingerprint” forest mortality and the significant role of ecosystem heterogeneity in forest biomass resistance to drought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗
NASA NTRS2000

An Intercomparison of Lidar Ozone and Temperature Measurements From the SOLVE Mission With Predicted Model Values

Temperature profiles acquired by Goddard Space Flight Center's AROTEL lidar during the SOLVE mission onboard NASA's DC-8 are compared with predicted values from several atmospheric models (DAO, NCEP and UKMO). The variability in the differences between measured and calculated temperature fields was approximately 5 K. Retrieved temperatures within the polar vortex showed large regions that were significantly colder than predicted by the atmospheric models.

Burris, John↗
NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Thermal Analysis During Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Aerobraking

A method for performing a probabilistic thermal analysis during aerobraking has been developed. The analysis is performed on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter solar array during aerobraking. The methodology makes use of a response surface model derived from a more complex finite element thermal model of the solar array. The response surface is a quadratic equation which calculates the peak temperature for a given orbit drag pass at a specific location on the solar panel. Five different response surface equations are used, one of which predicts the overall maximum solar panel temperature, and the remaining four predict the temperatures of the solar panel thermal sensors. The variables used to define the response surface can be characterized as either environmental, material property, or modeling variables. Response surface variables are statistically varied in a Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation produces mean temperatures and 3 sigma bounds as well as the probability of exceeding the designated flight allowable temperature for a given orbit. Response surface temperature predictions are compared with the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter flight temperature data.

Dec, John A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A thermodynamically consistent finite strain phase field approach to ductile fracture considering multi-axial stress states

Phase field models for ductile fracture have gained significant attention in the last two decades due to their ability in implicitly tracking the nucleation and propagation of cracks. However, most crack phase field formulations for elastoplastic solids focus only on the effects of plastic deformation, and do not consider the different multi-axial stress states that may arise in practical designs. In this work, a thermodynamically consistent phase field approach coupled with finite strain plasticity, considering multi-axial stress states is presented. In order to account for the coupling between plasticity and stress states, the Stress-Weighted Ductile Fracture Model (SWDFM) is utilized. The SWDFM represents a criterion for predicting ductile crack initiation under both monotonic and cyclic loadings based on histories of an internal plastic variable, stress triaxiality, and the Lode angle parameter. The excellent performance of the SWDFM for predicting ductile crack initiation motivates for its incorporation into a phase field approach for predicting both crack initiation and propagation through degradation of the fracture toughness. Moreover, based on the second law of thermodynamics, exact requirements are imposed on the rate at which the fracture toughness can evolve. Here, a novel function for degrading the plastic yield surface during the evolution of damage is introduced. This function, in line with experimental observations, leads to an accumulation of plastic deformation in damaged regions of a solid, and avoids numerical instabilities arising from concentrations of large plastic deformations in severely damaged regions. For validating the proposed model, results of computational simulations are compared to data from selected tests considering different multi-axial stress states. Comparisons of the numerical results with data from laboratory experiments demonstrate the capabilities of the proposed framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows (IPPD) (Final Report)

This report details the accomplishments from the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows” under the award numbers FWP-66406 and DE-SC0012630, with a focus on the UC San Diego (Award No. DE-SC0012630) part of the accomplishments. We refer to the project as IPPD. The main activities of IPPD were centered on the development and integration of provenance information to capture empirically workflow information and identify the sources of bottlenecks as well as variability, and modeling and simulation to provide insights and predictively explore multiple scenarios for development of advanced techniques for optimization of resources and workflow execution. After a Phase I of the project, a Phase II effort focused on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. The project leveraged and extended our existing tools with new research and demonstrated our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1985

Thermal traction contact performance evaluation under fully flooded and starved conditions

Ultra high speed traction tests were performed on two traction fluids commonly employed. Traction data on these fluids is required for purposes of traction drive design optimization techniques. To obtain the traction data, an existing twin disc traction test machine was employed. This machine was modified to accommodate the range of test variables. All the data reported was obtained under conditions of side slip, a technique whereby only low power levels are required to simulate real traction drive contacts. Theoretical traction predictions were performed for a representative number of curves that showed the influence of rolling velocity, of contact pressure and of aspect ratio. To establish the accuracy of the thermal model the predictions were performed ith increasing levels of independence of experimentally determined parameters. In the final resulting prediction only two non linear thermal parameters were used for the prediction of 15 different traction curves covering the entire range of variables as used in the investigation, with the exception of the influence of asperity traction. Comparison of these theoretical curves and corresponding experimental traces show very good agreement.

Tevaarwerk, J. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

HȮ 2 + HȮ 2 : High level theory and the role of singlet channels

At low temperatures and high pressures, the HȮ 2 + HȮ 2 reaction is an important reaction in combustion. There are significant unresolved discrepancies between prior theoretical and experimental studies of this reaction. It has generally been presumed to occur as an abstraction on the triplet surface to produce H 2 O 2 + 3 O 2 . Here, we employ a combination of high-level electronic structure theory (the ANL0 composite method or multi-reference methods as appropriate), sophisticated transition state theory (vibrationally adiabatic torsions, variational, and variable reaction coordinate), and master equation analyses to predict the thermal kinetics on the H 2 O 4 surface. Notably, this analysis suggests a significant branching to HȮ 3 + ȮH near 1000 K via reaction on the singlet surface. This channel does not appear to have been considered in prior combustion models. HȮ 3 itself is a metastable complex (bound by only 3 kcal mol -1 ) that rapidly dissociates to ȮH + 3 O 2 . Thus, the net reaction for this channel, HȮ 2 + HȮ 2 → ȮH + ȮH + O 2 , converts two low reactivity HȮ 2 radicals into two highly reactive ȮH radicals. The ramifications of these newly derived rate expressions are highlighted through kinetic modeling studies of H 2 , CH 3 OH, $\textit{n}$-heptane, and isooctane oxidation; all at the high pressures of relevance to combustion devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

A new phenomenological model to describe root-soil interactions based on percolation theory

In his paper on net primary productivity of terrestrial communities predicted from climatological data, Rosenzweig (1968) argued that variability in productivity is well accounted for by (evapo)-transpiration, and that water from transpiration is, on global scales, the most variable component in the photosynthesis reaction. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether variability in plant growth on local scales and within species is primarily related to transpiration under several scenarios including different terrain curvature, slope aspect, soil characteristics, and climate ranges. Here, we test the hypothesis that this relationship exists because root growth into the surface soil layers (0–2 m) tends to follow paths with minima in resistance, which in turn maximizes water flow and nutrient delivery rates that regulate growth. The set of all connected paths with individual pore-to-pore flow resistances less than a critical, percolating, value forms a cluster with mass fractal dimensionality, d f . We propose that roots follow paths through the 2D percolation cluster, defining the set of all optimal flow paths, making the 2D value of d f from percolation relevant to root fractal dimensionality. The tortuosity of such optimal paths as defined in percolation theory should then relate root length to root radial extent, linking the parameters of root tortuosity and plant productivity. Our analysis of large data sets across species implies that root radial extent and tree height are both proportional to cumulative transpiration until trees approached maximum height, and their growth rates are proportional to the transpiration rate, not to the moisture content. Local variations in tree height as functions of the variables investigated appear generally consistent with deduced variations in transpiration. Here this correlation is investigated more closely in the context of studies addressing individual tree species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Role of pH and Eh in geothermal systems: Thermodynamic examples and impacts on scaling and corrosion

The global demand for sustainable and clean renewable energy sources is rapidly increasing to meet growing energy demands while curtailing the CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Harnessing the natural heat or geothermal energy of the Earth's interior can simultaneously address both issues by offering a clean and renewable energy source. Enhanced geothermal systems require the movement and cycling of fluid through a porous rock media. Further, this process requires understanding the chemistry occurring at the fluid-rock and fluid-metal interfaces both in the deep subsurface and surface, where fluid is circulated for energy transfer or storage. In this review paper, we evaluate the current state of research on how two key variables, pH and Eh, control the fluid-rock reactions controlling mineral scaling and the steel corrosion reactions associated with geothermal systems. These variables are frequently used in geochemical modeling to predict chemical reactions in geothermal systems. Prediction of the fluid-rock behavior can be utilized to formulate new strategies for extending the lifespan and efficiency of heat extraction and utilization and maximizing the safety of geothermal systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shifting groundwater fluxes in bedrock fractures: Evidence from stream water radon and water isotopes

Geologic features (e.g., fractures and alluvial fans) can play an important role in the locations and volumes of groundwater discharge and degree of groundwater-surface water (GW-SW) interactions. However, the role of these features in controlling GW-SW dynamics and streamflow generation processes are not well constrained. GW-SW interactions and streamflow generation processes are further complicated by variability in precipitation inputs from summer and fall monsoon rains, as well as declines in snowpack and changing melt dynamics driven by warming temperatures. Using high spatial and temporal resolution radon and water stable isotope sampling and a 1D groundwater flux model, we evaluated how groundwater contributions and GW-SW interactions varied along a stream reach impacted by fractures (fractured-zone) and below the fractured hillslope (non-fractured zone) in Coal Creek, a Colorado River headwater stream affected by summer monsoons. During early summer, groundwater contributions from the fractured zone dominated, but declined throughout the summer. Groundwater contributions from the non-fractured zone were constant throughout the summer and became proportionally more important later in the summer. We hypothesize that groundwater in the non-fractured zone is dominantly sourced from a high-storage alluvial fan at the base of a tributary that is connected to Coal Creek throughout the summer and provides consistent groundwater influx. Water isotope data revealed that Coal Creek responds quickly to incoming precipitation early in the summer, and summer precipitation becomes more important for streamflow generation later in the summer. We quantified the change in catchment dynamic storage and found it negatively related to stream water isotope values, and positively related to modeled groundwater discharge and the ratio of fractured zone to non-fractured zone groundwater. Importantly, we interpret these relationships as declining hydrologic connectivity throughout the summer leading to late summer streamflow supported predominantly by shallow flow paths, with variable response to drying from geologic features based on their storage. As groundwater becomes more important for sustaining summer flows, quantifying local geologic controls on groundwater inputs and their response to variable moisture conditions may become critical for accurate predictions of streamflow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The effects of mixed-species root zones on the resistance of soil bacteria and fungi to long-term experimental and natural reductions in soil moisture

Mixed forest stands tend to be more resistant to drought than species-specific stands partially due to complementarity in root ecology and physiology. For this work, we asked whether complementary differences in the drought resistance of soil microbiomes might contribute to this phenomenon. We experimented on the effects of reduced soil moisture on bacterial and fungal community composition in species-specific (single species) and mixed-species root zones of Norway spruce and European beech forests in a 5-year-old throughfall-exclusion experiment and across seasonal (spring-summer-fall) and latitudinal moisture gradients. Bacteria were most responsive to changes in soil moisture, especially members of Rhizobiales, while fungi were largely unaffected, including ectomycorrhizal fungi (EMF). Community resistance was higher in spruce relative to beech root zones, corresponding with the proportions of drought-favored (more in spruce) and drought-sensitive bacterial taxa (more in beech). The spruce soil microbiome also exhibited greater resistance to seasonal changes between spring (wettest) and fall (driest). Mixed-species root zones contained a hybrid of beech- and spruce-associated microbiomes. Several bacterial populations exhibited either enhanced resistance or greater susceptibility to drought in mixed root zones. Overall, patterns in the relative abundances of soil bacteria closely tracked moisture in seasonal and latitudinal precipitation gradients and were more predictive of soil water content than other environmental variables. We conclude that complementary differences in the drought resistance of soil microbiomes can occur and the likeliest form of complementarity in mixed-root zones coincides with the enrichment of drought-tolerant bacteria associated with spruce and the sustenance of EMF by beech.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Explore Spatio‐Temporal Learning of Large Sample Hydrology Using Graph Neural Networks

Abstract Streamflow forecasting over gauged and ungauged basins play a vital role in water resources planning, especially under the changing climate. Increased availability of large sample hydrology data sets, together with recent advances in deep learning techniques, has presented new opportunities to explore temporal and spatial patterns in hydrological signatures for improving streamflow forecasting. The purpose of this study is to adapt and benchmark several state‐of‐the‐art graph neural network (GNN) architectures, including ChebNet, Graph Convolutional Network (GCN), and GraphWaveNet, for end‐to‐end graph learning. We explicitly represent river basins as nodes in a graph, learn the spatiotemporal nodal dependencies, and then use the learned relations to predict streamflow simultaneously across all nodes in the graph. The efficacy of the developed GNN models is investigated using the Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large‐sample Studies (CAMELS) data set under two settings, fixed graph topology (transductive learning), and variable graph topology (inductive learning), with the latter applicable to prediction in ungauged basins (PUB). Results indicate that GNNs are generally robust and computationally efficient, achieving similar or better performance than a baseline model trained using the long short‐term memory (LSTM) network. Further analyses are conducted to interpret the graph learning process at the edge and node levels and to investigate the effect of different model configurations. We conclude that graph learning constitutes a viable machine learning‐based method for aggregating spatiotemporal information from a multitude of sources for streamflow forecasting

Sun, Alexander Y.↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of chemical potential in compensation control in Si:AlGaN

Reduction in compensation in Si-doped Al-rich AlGaN is demonstrated via chemical potential control (CPC). The chemical potentials and the resulting formation energies of carbon on the nitrogen site (C N ) and cation vacancy complex with Si (V III + nSi III ) were related to growth variables through a thermodynamic supersaturation model, which quantitatively predicted the incorporation of C N and the generation of the V III + nSi III complex. The compensation “knee” behavior, i.e., decreasing conductivity with increasing Si incorporation beyond a certain concentration, was successfully controlled. The maximum free carrier concentration was improved by impeding the formation of V III + nSIi III complexes under III-richer conditions, while the impurity compensation by C N was reduced by making the growth environment N-richer. The results of Hall effect measurement and photoluminescence agreed well with quantitative theoretical predictions of the CPC model. Based on the developed model, the highest conductivity of 160 Ω -1 cm -1 with free carrier concentration of 3 × 10 19 cm -3 in Al 0.7 Ga 0.3 N ever reported was achieved on single crystal AlN substrates. The demonstrated predictive power of the CPC model should greatly reduce the empirical analysis or iterative experimentation that would otherwise be necessary.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nanometer-thick ultraflat cantilever resonators

Nanomechanical devices made from ultrathin materials are transforming diverse fields, including sensing, signal processing, and quantum technologies. However, as these materials become thinner, their low bending rigidity poses significant fabrication challenges, and achieving nanometer-thick flat cantilevers with consistent and predictable mechanical responses has remained elusive despite decades of research. Here we present nanometer-thick, ultraflat cantilever resonators fabricated using atomic layer deposition. By effectively mitigating the effects of uncontrollable built-in strain and geometric disorder, the ultraflat nanocantilevers exhibit resonance frequencies closely aligned with thin-plate theory predictions and display low sample-to-sample variability. These cantilevers maintain mechanical stability in both vacuum and air environments, even at large length-to-thickness ratios of up to 3000. The ultraflat nanocantilevers are approaching the thickness limit, beyond which thermal fluctuations at room temperature can spontaneously induce random ripples in otherwise flat films.

nanofabrication↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extracting Resilience Metrics From Distribution Utility Data Using Outage and Restore Process Statistics

Resilience curves track the accumulation and restoration of outages during an event on an electric distribution grid. We show that a resilience curve generated from utility data can always be decomposed into an outage process and a restore process and that these processes generally overlap in time. We use many events in real utility data to characterize the statistics of these processes, and derive formulas based on these statistics for resilience metrics such as restore duration, customer hours not served, and outage and restore rates. The formulas express the mean value of these metrics as a function of the number of outages in the event. We also give a formula for the variability of restore duration, which allows us to predict a maximum restore duration with 95% confidence. Overall, we give a simple and general way to decompose resilience curves into outage and restore processes and then show how to use these processes to extract resilience metrics from standard distribution system data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chaconne: A Statistical Approach to Nonlocal Compression for Supervised Learning, Semi-Supervised Learning, and Anomaly Detection

This project developed a novel statistical understanding of compression analytics (CA), which has challenged and clarified some core assumptions about CA, and enabled the development of novel techniques that address vital challenges of national security. Specifically, this project has yielded the development of novel capabilities including 1. Principled metrics for model selection in CA, 2. Techniques for deriving/applying optimal classification rules and decision theory to supervised CA, including how to properly handle class imbalance and differing costs of misclassification, 3. Two techniques for handling nonlocal information in CA, 4. A novel technique for unsupervised CA that is agnostic with regard to the underlying compression algorithm, 5. A framework for semisupervised CA when a small number of labels are known in an otherwise large unlabeled dataset. 6. The academic alliance component of this project has focused on the development of a novel exemplar-based Bayesian technique for estimating variable length Markov models (closely related to PPM [prediction by partial matching] compression techniques). We have developed examples illustrating the application of our work to text, video, genetic sequences, and unstructured cybersecurity log files.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatially-Explicit Prediction of Capacity Density Advances Geographic Characterization of Wind Power Technical Potential

Mounting interest in ambitious clean energy goals is exposing critical gaps in our understanding of onshore wind power potential. Conventional approaches to evaluating wind power technical potential at the national scale rely on coarse geographic representations of land area requirements for wind power. These methods overlook sizable spatial variation in real-world capacity densities (i.e., nameplate power capacity per unit area) and assume that potential installation densities are uniform across space. Here, we propose a data-driven approach to overcome persistent challenges in characterizing localized deployment potentials over broad extents. We use machine learning to develop predictive relationships between observed capacity densities and geospatial variables. The model is validated against a comprehensive data set of United States (U.S.) wind facilities and subjected to interrogation techniques to reveal that key explanatory features behind geographic variation of capacity density are related to wind resource as well as urban accessibility and forest cover. We demonstrate application of the model by producing a high-resolution (2 km × 2 km) national map of capacity density for use in technical potential assessments for the United States. Our findings illustrate that this methodology offers meaningful improvements in the characterization of spatial aspects of technical potential, which are increasingly critical to draw reliable and actionable planning and research insights from renewable energy scenarios.

17 WIND ENERGY↗