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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Quasi-Periodic Variability in NGC 5408 X-1

We report the discovery with XMM-Newton of quasiperiodic variability in the 0.2 - 10 keV X-ray flux from the ultraluminous X-ray source NGC 5408 X-1. The average power spectrum of all EPIC-pn data reveals a strong 20 mHz QPO with an average amplitude (rms) of 9%, and a coherence, Q identical with nu(sub 0)/sigma approximately equal to 6. In a 33 ksec time interval when the 20 mHz QPO is strongest we also find evidence for a 2nd QPO peak at 15 mHz, the first indication for a close pair of QPOs in a ULX source. Interestingly, the frequency ratio of this QPO pair is inconsistent with 3:2 at the 3 sigma level, but is consistent with a 4:3 ratio. A powerlaw noise component with slope near 1.5 is also present below 0.1 Hz with evidence for a break to a flatter slope at about 3 mHz. The source shows substantial broadband variability, with a total amplitude (rms) of about 30% in the 0.1 - 100 mHz frequency band, and there is strong energy dependence to the variability. The power spectrum of hard X-ray photons (greater than 2 keV) shows a "classic" flat-topped continuum breaking to a power law with index 1.5 - 2. Both the break and 20 mHz QPO are detected in the hard band, and the 20 mHz QPO is essentially at the break. The QPO is both strong and narrow in this band, having an amplitude (rms) of 15%, and Q approx. equal to 25. The energy spectrum is well fit by three components, a "cool" disk with kT = 0.15 keV, a steep power law with index 2.56, and a thermal plasma at kT = 0.87 keV. The disk, power law, and thermal plasma components contribute 35, 60, and 5% of the 0.3 - 10 keV flux, respectively. Both the timing and spectral properties of NGC 5408 X-1 are strikingly reminiscent of Galactic black hole systems at high inferred accretion rates, but with its characteristic frequencies (QPO and break frequencies) scaled down by a factor of 10 - 100. We discuss the implications of these findings in the context of models for ULXs, and their implications for the object's mass.

Strohmayer, Tod E.↗

The Effect of Variable End of Charge Battery Management on Small-Cell Batteries

ABSL Space Products is the world leading supplier of Lithium-ion batteries for space applications and has pioneered the use of small capacity COTS cells within large arrays. This small-cell approach has provided many benefits to space application designers through increased flexibility and reliability over more traditional battery designs. The ABSL 18650HC cell has been used in most ABSL space battery applications to date and has a recommended End Of Charge Voltage (EOCV) of 4.2V per cell. For all space applications using the ABSL 18650HC so far, this EOCV has been used at all stages of battery life from ground checkout to in orbit operations. ABSL and NASA have identified that, by using a lower EOCV for the same equivalent Depth Of Discharge (DOD), battery capacity fade could be reduced. The intention of this paper is to compare battery performance for systems with fixed and variable EOCV. In particular, the effect of employing the blanket value of 4.2V per cell versus utilizing a lower EOCV at Beginning Of Life (BOL) before gradually increasing it (as the effects of capacity fade drive the End Of Discharge Voltage closer to the acceptable system level minimum) is analyzed. Data is compared from ABSL in-house and NASA GRC tests that have been run under fixed and variable EOCV conditions. Differences in capacity fade are discussed and projections are made as to potential life extension capability by utilizing a variable EOCV strategy.

Neubauer, Jeremy↗

Ladder-structured photonic variable delay device

An ladder-structured variable delay device for providing variable true time delay to multiple optical beams simultaneously. The device comprises multiple basic units stacked on top of each other resembling a ladder. Each basic unit comprises a polarization sensitive corner reflector formed by two polarization beamsplitters and a polarization rotator array placed parallel to the hypotenuse of the corner reflector. Controlling an array element of the polarization rotator array causes an optical beam passing through the array element to either go up to a basic unit above it or reflect back towards output. The beams going higher on the ladder experience longer optical path delay. Finally, the ladder-structured variable device can be cascaded with another multi-channel delay device to form a new device which combines the advantages of the two individual devices. This programmable optic device has the properties of high packing density, low loss, easy fabrication, and virtually infinite bandwidth. In addition, the delay is reversible so that the same delay device can be used for both antenna transmitting and receiving.

Yao, X. Steve↗

Variable geometry inlet design for scram jet engine

The present invention relates to an improved variable geometry inlet for a scram jet engine having at least one combustor module. The variable geometry inlet comprises each combustor module having two sidewalls. Each of the sidewalls has a central portion with a thickness and a tapered profile forward of the central portion. The tapered profile terminates in a sharp leading edge. The variable geometry inlet further comprises each module having a lower wall and a movable cowl flap positioned forward of the lower wall. The movable cowl flap has a leading edge and the leading edges of the sidewalls intersect the leading edge of the cowl flap.

Guinan, Daniel P.↗

Diurnal Variability of Vertical Structure from a TRMM Passive Microwave "Virtual Radar" Retrieval

Robust description of the diurnal cycle from TRMM observations is complicated by the limitations of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) sampling; from a 'climatological' perspective, sufficient sampling must exist to control for both spatial and seasonal variability, before tackling an additional diurnal component (e.g., with 8 additional 3-hourly or 24 1-hourly bins). For documentation of vertical structure, the narrow sample swath of the TRMM Precipitation Radar limits the resolution of any of these components. A neural-network based 'virtual radar" retrieval has been trained and internally validated, using multifrequency / multipolarization passive microwave(TM1) brightness temperatures and textures parameters and lightning (LIS) observations, as inputs, and PR volumetric reflectivity as targets (outputs). By training the algorithms (essentially highly multivariate, nonlinear regressions) on a very large sample of high-quality co-located data from the center of the TRMM swath, 3D radar reflectivity and derived parameters (VIL, IWC, Echo Tops, etc.) can be retrieved across the entire TMI swath, good to 8-9% over the dynamic range of parameters. As a step in the retrieval (and as an output of the process), each TMI multifrequency pixel (at 85 GHz resolution) is classified into one of the 25 archetypal radar profile vertical structure "types", previously identified using cluster analysis. The dynamic range of retrieved vertical structure appears to have higher fidelity than the current (Version 6) experimental GPROF hydrometeor vertical structure retrievals. This is attributable to correct representation of the prior probabilities of vertical structure variability in the neural network training data, unlike the GPROF cloud-resolving model training dataset used in the V6 algorithms. The LIS lightning inputs are supplementary inputs, and a separate offline neural network has been trained to impute (predict) LIS lightning from passive-microwave-only data. The virtual radar retrieval is thus, in principle, extensible to Aqua/AMSR-E and NPOESS/CMIS passive microwave instruments. The virtual radar approach yields a threefold increase in effective sampling from the mission, albeit of lower-quality "retrieved" data, reducing the variance of local estimates by one third (or the standard deviation by-0.57). In this talk, the variance reduction is leveraged to more finely resolve global diurnal variability in both space and time (local hour).

Boccippio, Dennis J.↗

Modeling Variability of Plasma Conditions in the Io Torus

Telescopic observations an in situ measurements of the Io plasma torus show the density, temperature and composition to vary over time, sometimes up to a factor of 2. While previous models of the physical and chemical processes in the Io plasma torus have reasonably modeled the conditions of the Voyager 1 era, their authors have not addressed the observed variability nor explored the sensitivity of torus conditions to input parameters. In this paper we present a homogeneous torus model parameterized by five variables (transport timescale, neutral source strength, ratio of oxygen sulfur to atoms in the source, fraction of superthermal electrons, temperature of these hot electrons). The model incorporates the most recent data for ionization, recombination, charge exchange and radiative energy losses for the major torus species (S, S(sup +), S(sup ++), S(sup +++), O, O(sup +), O(sup ++). We solve equations of conservation of mass and energy to find equilibrium conditions for a set of input parameters. We compare model plasma conditions with those observed by Voyager 1 Voyager 2, and Cassini. Furthermore, we explore the sensitivity of torus conditions to each parameter. We find that (1) torus conditions are distinctly different for the Voyager 1, Voyager 2 and Cassini eras, (2) unique torus input parameters for any given era are poorly constrained given the wide range of solution space that is consistent with the range of observed torus conditions, (3) ion composition is highly sensitive to the specification of a non-thermal electron distribution, (4) neutral O/S source ratio is highly variable with model values ranging between 1.7 for Cassini to 4.0 for Voyager 1 conditions, (5) transport times range between 23 days for Voyager 2 to 50 days for Voyager 1 and Cassini, (6) neutral source strengths range between 7 to 30 x 10(sup -4) cm (sup -3) s(sup -1) which corresponds to a net production of 0.4 to 1.3 tons/s for a torus volume of 1.4 x 10(sup 31) cm(sup 3), or 38 R(sub j)(sup 3).

Delamere, P. A.↗

Modeling Temporal Variability of Plasma Conditions in the Io Torus during the Cassini Era

Observations of ultraviolet (UV) emissions from the major ion species (S(sup +), S(sup ++), S(sup +++), O(sup +), O(sup ++) of the Io Plasma torus made during the Cassini flyby (October 2000 to March 2001) have revealed significant time variability. Using a homogenoeus model for mass and energy flow in the torus parameterized by five input variables (transport timescale, neutral source strength, ratio of oxygen to sulfur atoms in the source, fraction of superthermal electrons, and temperature of the hot electrons), we have investigated the time variability of the torus properties (density, composition, and temperature) during the Cassini era. In order to match the changes in emissions, the model suggests that a significant change in the neutral source occurred near the beginning of the observing period, decreasing from more than 1.8 tons/s to 0.7 tons/s. The changes in the neutral source appear to coincide with the declining phase of a dramatic (i.e., 2-3 order of magnitude) peak in iogenic dust emissions observed by Galileo prior to the Cassini era.

Delamere, P. A.↗

Space Technology 5 Multi-Point Observations of Temporal Variability of Field-Aligned Currents

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that meso-scale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of approximately 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approximately 1 min for meso-scale currents and approximately 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Le, Guan↗

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Molnar, Gyula↗

Space Technology 5 Multi-point Observations of Field-aligned Currents: Temporal Variability of Meso-Scale Structures

Space Technology 5 (ST5) is a three micro-satellite constellation deployed into a 300 x 4500 km, dawn-dusk, sun-synchronous polar orbit from March 22 to June 21, 2006, for technology validations. In this paper, we present a study of the temporal variability of field-aligned currents using multi-point magnetic field measurements from ST5. The data demonstrate that meso-scale current structures are commonly embedded within large-scale field-aligned current sheets. The meso-scale current structures are very dynamic with highly variable current density and/or polarity in time scales of - 10 min. They exhibit large temporal variations during both quiet and disturbed times in such time scales. On the other hand, the data also shown that the time scales for the currents to be relatively stable are approx. 1 min for meso-scale currents and approx. 10 min for large scale current sheets. These temporal features are obviously associated with dynamic variations of their particle carriers (mainly electrons) as they respond to the variations of the parallel electric field in auroral acceleration region. The characteristic time scales for the temporal variability of meso-scale field-aligned currents are found to be consistent with those of auroral parallel electric field.

Le, Guan↗

Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Rainfall in the Equatorial Atlantic

Tropical Atlantic rainfall patterns and variation during boreal summer [June-July-August (JJA)] are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979-2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring [March-April-May (MAM)] is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strength and the basin-mean rainfall are found during both seasons. Interannual variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location during JJA however are generally negligible, in contrasting to intense year-to-year fluctuations during MAM. Sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations along the equatorial region (usually called the Atlantic Nino events) and in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) are shown to be the two major local factors modulating the tropical Atlantic climate during both seasons. During MAM, both SST modes tend to contribute to the formation of an evident interhemispheric SST gradient, thus inducing anomalous shifting of the ITCZ and then forcing a dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies across the equator primarily in the western basin. During JJA the impacts however are primarily on the ITCZ strength likely due to negligible changes in the ITCZ latitudinal location. The Atlantic Nino reaches its peak in JJA, while much weaker SST anomalies appear north of the equator in JJA than in MAM, showing decaying of the interhemispheric SST mode. SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (the El Nino events) have a strong impact on tropical Atlantic including both the tropical north Atlantic and the equatorial-southern Atlantic. However, anomalous warming in the tropical north Atlantic following positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific disappears during JJA because of seasonal changes in the large-scale circulation cutting off the ENSO influence passing through the mid-latitudes. Hence the anomalies associated with the tropical Pacific during JJA are forced through an anomalous Walker circulation primarily working on the western basin, and likely a lagged oceanic response in the equatorial region.

Gu, Guojun↗

Quantifying the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of North American Isoprene Emissions Using Satellite Observations of the Formaldehyde Column

Quantifying isoprene emissions using satellite observations of the formaldehyde (HCHO) columns is subject to errors involving the column retrieval and the assumed relationship between HCHO columns and isoprene emissions, taken here from the GEOS-CHEM chemical transport model. Here we use a 6-year (1996-2001) HCHO column data set from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) satellite instrument to (1) quantify these errors, (2) evaluate GOME-derived isoprene emissions with in situ flux measurements and a process-based emission inventory (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature, MEGAN), and (3) investigate the factors driving the seasonal and interannual variability of North American isoprene emissions. The error in the GOME HCHO column retrieval is estimated to be 40%. We use the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) to quantify the time-dependent HCHO production from isoprene, alpha- and beta-pinenes, and methylbutenol and show that only emissions of isoprene are detectable by GOME. The time-dependent HCHO yield from isoprene oxidation calculated by MCM is 20-30% larger than in GEOS-CHEM. GOME-derived isoprene fluxes track the observed seasonal variation of in situ measurements at a Michigan forest site with a -30% bias. The seasonal variation of North American isoprene emissions during 2001 inferred from GOME is similar to MEGAN, with GOME emissions typically 25% higher (lower) at the beginning (end) of the growing season. GOME and MEGAN both show a maximum over the southeastern United States, but they differ in the precise location. The observed interannual variability of this maximum is 20-30%, depending on month. The MEGAN isoprene emission dependence on surface air temperature explains 75% of the month-to-month variability in GOME-derived isoprene emissions over the southeastern United States during May-September 1996-2001.

Palmer, Paul I.↗

Source Attribution and Interannual Variability of Arctic Pollution in Spring Constrained by Aircraft (ARCTAS, ARCPAC) and Satellite (AIRS) Observations of Carbon Monoxide

We use aircraft observations of carbon monoxide (CO) from the NASA ARCTAS and NOAA ARCPAC campaigns in April 2008 together with multiyear (2003-2008) CO satellite data from the AIRS instrument and a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to better understand the sources, transport, and interannual variability of pollution in the Arctic in spring. Model simulation of the aircraft data gives best estimates of CO emissions in April 2008 of 26 Tg month-1 for Asian anthropogenic, 9.1 for European anthropogenic, 4.2 for North American anthropogenic, 9.3 for Russian biomass burning (anomalously large that year), and 21 for Southeast Asian biomass burning. We find that Asian anthropogenic emissions are the dominant source of Arctic CO pollution everywhere except in surface air where European anthropogenic emissions are of similar importance. Synoptic pollution influences in the Arctic free troposphere include contributions of comparable magnitude from Russian biomass burning and from North American, European, and Asian anthropogenic sources. European pollution dominates synoptic variability near the surface. Analysis of two pollution events sampled by the aircraft demonstrates that AIRS is capable of observing pollution transport to the Arctic in the mid-troposphere. The 2003-2008 record of CO from AIRS shows that interannual variability averaged over the Arctic cap is very small. AIRS CO columns over Alaska are highly correlated with the Ocean Nino Index, suggesting a link between El Nino and northward pollution transport. AIRS shows lower-than-average CO columns over Alaska during April 2008, despite the Russian fires, due to a weakened Aleutian Low hindering transport from Asia and associated with the moderate 2007-2008 La Nina. This suggests that Asian pollution influence over the Arctic may be particularly large under strong El Nino conditions.

Fisher, J. A.↗

The Variable X-Ray Spectrum of Markarian 766. II. Time-resolved Spectroscopy

Time-resolved spectroscopy, slicing XMM and Suzaku data down to 25 ks elements was used to investigate whether absorption or scattering components dominate the spectral variations in Mrk 766. Results: Time-resolved spectroscopy confirmed that spectral variability in Mrk 766 can be explained by either of two interpretations of principal components analysis. Detailed investigation confirmed that rapid changes in the relative strengths of scattered and direct emission or rapid changes in absorber covering fraction provide good explanations of most of the spectral variability. However, a strong correlation between the 6.97 keV absorption line and primary continuum together with rapid opacity changes showed that variations in a complex and multi-layered absorber, most likely a disk wind, are the dominant source of spectral variability in Mrk 766.

Turner, T. J.↗

Modification of Otolith-Ocular Reflexes, Motion Perception and Manual Control During Variable Radius Centrifugation Following Space Flight

Two joint ESA-NASA studies are examining changes in otolith-ocular reflexes and motion perception following short duration space flights, and the operational implications of post-flight tilt-translation ambiguity for manual control performance. Vibrotactile feedback of tilt orientation is also being evaluated as a countermeasure to improve performance during a closed-loop nulling task. Data is currently being collected on astronaut subjects during 3 preflight sessions and during the first 8 days after Shuttle landings. Variable radius centrifugation is utilized to elicit otolith reflexes in the lateral plane without concordant roll canal cues. Unilateral centrifugation (400 deg/s, 3.5 cm radius) stimulates one otolith positioned off-axis while the opposite side is centered over the axis of rotation. During this paradigm, roll-tilt perception is measured using a subjective visual vertical task and ocular counter-rolling is obtained using binocular video-oculography. During a second paradigm (216 deg/s, less than 20 cm radius), the effects of stimulus frequency (0.15 - 0.6 Hz) are examined on eye movements and motion perception. A closed-loop nulling task is also performed with and without vibrotactile display feedback of chair radial position. Data collection is currently ongoing. Results to date suggest there is a trend for perceived tilt and translation amplitudes to be increased at the low and medium frequencies on landing day compared to pre-flight. Manual control performance is improved with vibrotactile feedback. One result of this study will be to characterize the variability (gain, asymmetry) in both otolith-ocular responses and motion perception during variable radius centrifugation, and measure the time course of post-flight recovery. This study will also address how adaptive changes in otolith-mediated reflexes correspond to one's ability to perform closed-loop nulling tasks following G-transitions, and whether manual control performance can be improved with vibrotactile feedback of orientation.

Wood, Scott J.↗

ZAG-Otolith: Modification of Otolith-Ocular Reflexes, Motion Perception and Manual Control during Variable Radius Centrifugation Following Space Flight

Two joint ESA-NASA studies are examining changes in otolith-ocular reflexes and motion perception following short duration space flights, and the operational implications of post-flight tilt-translation ambiguity for manual control performance. Vibrotactile feedback of tilt orientation is also being evaluated as a countermeasure to improve performance during a closed-loop nulling task. METHODS. Data is currently being collected on astronaut subjects during 3 preflight sessions and during the first 8 days after Shuttle landings. Variable radius centrifugation is utilized to elicit otolith reflexes in the lateral plane without concordant roll canal cues. Unilateral centrifugation (400 deg/s, 3.5 cm radius) stimulates one otolith positioned off-axis while the opposite side is centered over the axis of rotation. During this paradigm, roll-tilt perception is measured using a subjective visual vertical task and ocular counter-rolling is obtained using binocular video-oculography. During a second paradigm (216 deg/s, <20 cm radius), the effects of stimulus frequency (0.15 - 0.6 Hz) are examined on eye movements and motion perception. A closed-loop nulling task is also performed with and without vibrotactile display feedback of chair radial position. PRELIMINARY RESULTS. Data collection is currently ongoing. Results to date suggest there is a trend for perceived tilt and translation amplitudes to be increased at the low and medium frequencies on landing day compared to pre-flight. Manual control performance is improved with vibrotactile feedback. DISCUSSION. One result of this study will be to characterize the variability (gain, asymmetry) in both otolithocular responses and motion perception during variable radius centrifugation, and measure the time course of postflight recovery. This study will also address how adaptive changes in otolith-mediated reflexes correspond to one's ability to perform closed-loop nulling tasks following G-transitions, and whether manual control performance can be improved with vibrotactile feedback of orientation.

Wood, S. J.↗

Turbofan gas turbine engine with variable fan outlet guide vanes

A turbofan gas turbine engine includes a forward fan section with a row of fan rotor blades, a core engine, and a fan bypass duct downstream of the forward fan section and radially outwardly of the core engine. The forward fan section has only a single stage of variable fan guide vanes which are variable fan outlet guide vanes downstream of the forward fan rotor blades. An exemplary embodiment of the engine includes an afterburner downstream of the fan bypass duct between the core engine and an exhaust nozzle. The variable fan outlet guide vanes are operable to pivot from a nominal OGV position at take-off to an open OGV position at a high flight Mach Number which may be in a range of between about 2.5-4+. Struts extend radially across a radially inwardly curved portion of a flowpath of the engine between the forward fan section and the core engine.

Wood, Peter John↗

QBO Influence on Polar Stratospheric Variability in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

The quasi-biennial oscillation modulates the strength of both the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric vortices. Model and observational studies have found that the phase and characteristics of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) contribute to the high degree of variability in the Arctic stratosphere in winter. While the Antarctic stratosphere is less variable, recent work has shown that Southern Hemisphere planetary wave driving increases in response to "warm pool" El Nino events that are coincident with the easterly phase of the QBO. These events hasten the breakup of the Antarctic polar vortex. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) is now capable of generating a realistic QBO, due a new parameterization of gravity wave drag. In this presentation, we will use this new model capability to assess the influence of the QBO on polar stratospheric variability. Using simulations of the recent past, we will compare the modeled relationship between QBO phase and mid-winter vortex strength with the observed Holton-Tan relation, in both hemispheres. We will use simulations of the 21 St century to estimate future trends in the relationship between QBO phase and vortex strength. In addition, we will evaluate the combined influence of the QBO and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the timing of the breakup of the polar stratospheric vortices in the GEOS CCM. We will compare the influence of these two natural phenomena with trends in the vortex breakup associated with ozone recovery and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗