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NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol-Induced Changes of Convective Cloud Anvils Produce Strong Climate Warming

The effect of aerosol on clouds poses one of the largest uncertainties in estimating the anthropogenic contribution to climate change. Small human-induced perturbations to cloud characteristics via aerosol pathways can create a change in the top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing of hundreds of Wm(exp-2) . Here we focus on links between aerosol and deep convective clouds of the Atlantic and Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones, noting that the aerosol environment in each region is entirely different. The tops of these vertically developed clouds consisting of mostly ice can reach high levels of the atmosphere, overshooting the lower stratosphere and reaching altitudes greater than 16 km. We show a link between aerosol, clouds and the free atmosphere wind profile that can change the magnitude and sign of the overall climate radiative forcing. We find that increased aerosol loading is associated with taller cloud towers and anvils. The taller clouds reach levels of enhanced wind speeds that act to spread and thin the anvi1 clouds, increasing areal coverage and decreasing cloud optical depth. The radiative effect of this transition is to create a positive radiative forcing (warming) at top-of-atmosphere. Furthermore we introduce the cloud optical depth (r), cloud height (Z) forcing space and show that underestimation of radiative forcing is likely to occur in cases of non homogenous clouds. Specifically, the mean radiative forcing of towers and anvils in the same scene can be several times greater than simply calculating the forcing from the mean cloud optical depth in the scene. Limitations of the method are discussed, alternative sources of aerosol loading are tested and meteorological variance is restricted, but the trend of taller clouds; increased and thinner anvils associated with increased aerosol loading remains robust through all the different tests and perturbations.

Koren, I.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Subduction and volatile recycling in Earth's mantle

The subduction of water and other volatiles into the mantle from oceanic sediments and altered oceanic crust is the major source of volatile recycling in the mantle. Until now, the geotherms that have been used to estimate the amount of volatiles that are recycled at subduction zones have been produced using the hypothesis that the slab is rigid and undergoes no internal deformation. On the other hand, most fluid dynamical mantle flow calculations assume that the slab has no greater strength than the surrounding mantle. Both of these views are inconsistent with laboratory work on the deformation of mantle minerals at high pressures. We consider the effects of the strength of the slab using two-dimensional calculations of a slab-like thermal downwelling with an endothermic phase change. Because the rheology and composition of subducting slabs are uncertain, we consider a range of Clapeyron slopes which bound current laboratory estimates of the spinel to perovskite plus magnesiowustite phase transition and simple temperature-dependent rheologies based on an Arrhenius law diffusion mechanism. In uniform viscosity convection models, subducted material piles up above the phase change until the pile becomes gravitationally unstable and sinks into the lower mantle (the avalanche). Strong slabs moderate the 'catastrophic' effects of the instabilities seen in many constant-viscosity convection calculations; however, even in the strongest slabs we consider, there is some retardation of the slab descent due to the presence of the phase change.

King, S. D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗

DOE OSTI2022

Lighting System Control Data to Improve Design and Operation: Tunable Lighting System Data from NICU Patient Rooms

The advancement of LED and controls technology, computing capacity, and software provides new opportunities for researchers and designers to work together to further optimize spaces for occupant benefit. Here, lighting system control data from five neonatal intensive care unit patient rooms was collected over a 25-week monitoring period and analyzed to better understand occupant response to a tunable lighting system with automatic transitions throughout the day. Lighting systems are very rarely refined after installation based on actual use. Objective data detailing how the lighting system is used by the actual occupants highlights the opportunities for optimization after installation and provides insight for improving the next design. As use of the data becomes more commonplace, it can be leveraged for design recommendations. The collection of the data required no additional cost beyond the time for examining the data. The analysis revealed several clear opportunities for improvement, including adjustments to the default control setting at night, re-labeling of the control stations, and adjustments to the nighttime fade rate. The patient room occupants were active users of the different zones, dimming options, and manual overrides made available by the lighting system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optically controlled single-valley exciton doublet states with tunable internal spin structures and spin magnetization generation

Manipulating quantum states through light–matter interactions has been actively pursued in two-dimensional materials research. Significant progress has been made toward the optical control of the valley degrees of freedom in semiconducting monolayer transition-metal dichalcogenides, based on doubly degenerate excitons from their two distinct valleys in reciprocal space. Here, we introduce a type of optically controllable doubly degenerate exciton states that come from a single valley, dubbed as single-valley exciton doublet (SVXD) states. They are unique in that their constituent holes originate from the same valence band, making possible the direct optical control of the spin structure of the excited constituent electrons. Combining ab initio GW plus Bethe–Salpeter equation ( GW -BSE) calculations and a theoretical analysis method, we demonstrate such SVXD in substrate-supported monolayer bismuthene—which has been successfully grown using molecular beam epitaxy. In each of the two distinct valleys in the Brillouin zone, strong spin–orbit coupling and C 3 v symmetry lead to a pair of degenerate 1s exciton states (the SVXD states) with opposite spin configurations. Any coherent linear combinations of the SVXD in a single valley can be excited by light with a specific polarization, enabling full manipulation of their internal spin configurations. In particular, a controllable net spin magnetization can be generated through light excitation. Our findings open routes to control quantum degrees of freedom, paving the way for applications in spintronics and quantum information science.

2D materials↗

DOE OSTI2020

High oxygen pressure floating zone growth and crystal structure of the metallic nickelates R4Ni3O10 ( R=La,Pr )

Single crystals of the metallic Ruddlesden-Popper trilayer nickelates R 4 Ni 3 O 10 ( R = La , Pr ) were successfully grown using an optical-image floating zone furnace under oxygen pressure ( p O 2 ) of 20 bar for La 4 Ni 3 O 10 and 140 bar for Pr 4 Ni 3 O 10 . Furthermore, a combination of synchrotron and laboratory x-ray single-crystal diffraction, high-resolution synchrotron x-ray powder diffraction and measurements of physical properties revealed that R 4 Ni 3 O 10 ( R = La , Pr ) crystallizes in the monoclinic P 2 1 / a ( Z = 2 ) space group at room temperature, and that a metastable orthorhombic phase ( Bmab ) can be trapped by postgrowth rapid cooling. Both La 4 Ni 3 O 10 and Pr 4 Ni 3 O 10 crystals undergo a metal-to-metal transition (MMT) below room temperature. In the case of Pr 4 Ni 3 O 10 , the MMT is found at 157.6 K. For La 4 Ni 3 O 10 , the MMT depends on the lattice symmetry: 147.5 K for Bmab vs 138.6 K for P 2 1 / a . Lattice anomalies were found at the MMT that, when considered together with the pronounced dependence of the transition temperature on subtle structural differences between Bmab and P 2 1 / a phases, demonstrate a not insignificant coupling between electronic and lattice degrees of freedom in these trilayer nickelates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2015

From Pixels to Planets

The Kepler Mission was launched in 2009 as NASAs first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets in the habitable zone of Sun-like stars. Its telescope consists of a 1.5-m primary mirror and a 0.95-m aperture. The 42 charge-coupled devices in its focal plane are read out every half hour, compressed, and then downlinked monthly. After four years, the second of four reaction wheels failed, ending the original mission. Back on earth, the Science Operations Center developed the Science Pipeline to analyze about 200,000 target stars in Keplers field of view, looking for evidence of periodic dimming suggesting that one or more planets had crossed the face of its host star. The Pipeline comprises several steps, from pixel-level calibration, through noise and artifact removal, to detection of transit-like signals and the construction of a suite of diagnostic tests to guard against false positives. The Kepler Science Pipeline consists of a pipeline infrastructure written in the Java programming language, which marshals data input to and output from MATLAB applications that are executed as external processes. The pipeline modules, which underwent continuous development and refinement even after data started arriving, employ several analytic techniques, many developed for the Kepler Project. Because of the large number of targets, the large amount of data per target and the complexity of the pipeline algorithms, the processing demands are daunting. Some pipeline modules require days to weeks to process all of their targets, even when run on NASA's 128-node Pleiades supercomputer. The software developers are still seeking ways to increase the throughput. To date, the Kepler project has discovered more than 4000 planetary candidates, of which more than 1000 have been independently confirmed or validated to be exoplanets. Funding for this mission is provided by NASAs Science Mission Directorate.

supercomputers↗

NASA NTRS2017

Constraints on Climate and Habitability for Earth-like Exoplanets Determined from a General Circulation Model

Conventional definitions of habitability require abundant liquid surface water to exist continuously over geologic timescales. Water in each of its thermodynamic phases interacts with solar and thermal radiation and is the cause for strong climatic feedbacks. Thus, assessments of the habitable zone require models to include a complete treatment of the hydrological cycle over geologic time. Here, we use the Community Atmosphere Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research to study the evolution of climate for an Earth-like planet at constant CO2, under a wide range of stellar fluxes from F-, G-, and K-dwarf main sequence stars. Around each star we find four stable climate states defined by mutually exclusive global mean surface temperatures (T(sub s)); snowball (T(sub s) ≼ 235 K), waterbelt (235 K ≼ T(sub s) ≼ 250 K), temperate (275 K ≼ T(sub s) ≼ 315 K), and moist greenhouse (T(sub s) ≽ 330 K). Each is separated by abrupt climatic transitions. Waterbelt, temperate, and cooler moist greenhouse climates can maintain open-ocean against both sea ice albedo and hydrogen escape processes respectively, and thus constitute habitable worlds. We consider the warmest possible habitable planet as having T(sub s) ∼ 355 K, at which point diffusion limited water-loss could remove an Earth ocean in ∼1 Gyr. Without long timescale regulation of non-condensable greenhouse species at Earth-like temperatures and pressures, such as CO2, habitability can be maintained for an upper limit of ∼2.2, ∼2.4, and ∼4.7 Gyr around F-, G-, and K-dwarf stars respectively, due to main sequence brightening.

Astrobiology↗

NASA NTRS1987

Snow melt on sea ice surfaces as determined from passive microwave satellite data

SMMR data for the year 1979, 1980 and 1984 have been analyzed to determine the variability in the onset of melt for the Arctic seasonal sea ice zone. The results show melt commencing in either the Kara/Barents Seas or Chukchi Sea and progressing zonally towards the central Asian coast (Laptev Sea). Individual regions had interannual variations in melt onset in the 10-20 day range. To determine whether daily changes occur in the sea ice surface melt, the SMMR 18 and 37 GHz brightness temperature data are analyzed at day/night/twilight periods. Brightness temperatures illustrate diurnal variations in most regions during melt. In the East Siberian Sea, however, daily variations are observed in 1979, throughout the analysis period, well before any melt would usually have commenced. Understanding microwave responses to changing surface conditions during melt will perhaps give additional information about energy budgets during the winter to summer transition of sea ice.

Anderson, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Developmental regulation of the effects of fibroblast growth factor-2 and 1-octanol on neuronogenesis: implications for a hypothesis relating to mitogen-antimitogen opposition

Neocortical neurons arise from a pseudostratified ventricular epithelium (PVE) that lies within the ventricular zone (VZ) at the margins of the embryonic cerebral ventricles. We examined the effects of fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2) and 1-octanol on cell output behavior of the PVE in explants of the embryonic mouse cerebral wall. FGF-2 is mitogenic and 1-octanol antimitogenic in the PVE. Whereas all postmitotic cells migrate out of the VZ in vivo, in the explants some postmitotic cells remain within the VZ. We refer to these cells as the indeterminate or I fraction, because they neither exit from the VZ nor reenter S phase as part of the proliferative (P) fraction. They are considered to be either in an extremely prolonged G(1) phase, unable to pass the G(1)/S transition, or in the G(0) state. The I fate choice is modulated by both FGF-2 and 1-octanol. FGF-2 decreased the I fraction and increased the P fraction. In contrast, 1-octanol increased the I fraction and nearly eliminated the P fraction. The effects of FGF-2 and 1-octanol were developmentally regulated, in that they were observed in the developmentally advanced lateral region of the cerebral wall but not in the medial region. Copyright 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

NASA Discipline Developmental Biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Sea Breezes and Associated Convective Cloud Evolution in the Model Gray Zone

We characterize convective clouds associated with sea‐breeze circulations (SBC) using multi‐agency observations and multi‐case ensemble model simulations. The focus is on assessing convective cloud lifecycle properties and their merging behavior, as well as the environmental conditions they are embedded in, particularly SBC features. In total, 46 SBC days over the Houston‐Galveston region are selected and simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a gray zone scale with a forecast‐like parameterization setup. Advanced techniques, including change‐point detection, a Lagrangian cloud tracking method, and a newly developed cell merging and splitting detection algorithm, are applied and/or developed for this study. Our findings indicate that the WRF model at 1 km grid spacing well represents the thermodynamic conditions over the region, as well as SBC timing and intensity. However, for the associated convective cells, WRF overestimates the 30‐dBZ echo top height, cell area, and maximum radar reflectivity compared to radar observations. This overestimation is potentially due to under‐resolved entrainment processes, an overestimated merging frequency, and the overestimation of updraft intensity. Furthermore, the model exhibits a deficiency in simulating congestus clouds, showing a more rapid transition from shallow to deep convection compared to observed behavior. Moreover, observations indicate stronger, deeper, and wider clouds when merging happens. Conversely, in simulations, the merging process does not necessarily lead to higher or longer‐lived cells, as many cases experience rapid and frequent merging and splitting which may result in more variance in convective updraft velocity during the convection lifetime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing ion transport in charged block copolymers by stabilizing low symmetry morphology: Electrostatic control of interfaces

Recently, the interest in charged polymers has been rapidly growing due to their uses in energy storage and transfer devices. Yet, polymer electrolyte-based devices are not on the immediate horizon because of the low ionic conductivity. In the present study, we developed a methodology to enhance the ionic conductivity of charged block copolymers comprising ionic liquids through the electrostatic control of the interfacial layers. Unprecedented reentrant phase transitions between lamellar and A15 structures were seen, which cannot be explained by well-established thermodynamic factors. X-ray scattering experiments and molecular dynamics simulations revealed the formation of fascinating, thin ionic shell layers composed of ionic complexes. The ionic liquid cations of these complexes predominantly presented near the micellar interfaces if they had strong binding affinity with the charged polymer chains. Therefore, the interfacial properties and concentration fluctuations of the A15 structures were crucially dependent on the type of tethered acid groups in the polymers. Overall, the stabilization energies of the A15 structures were greater when enriched, attractive electrostatic interactions were present at the micellar interfaces. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that block copolymer interfaces act as “dead zone” to significantly deteriorate ion transport, this study establishes a prospective avenue for advanced polymer electrolyte having tailor-made interfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling and Simulation of Xe-100-type Pebble Bed Gas-Cooled Reactor with SCALE

The US Department of Energy (DOE) announced the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) to accelerate the deployment of advanced reactor concepts. Awardees of ARDP funds are expected to demonstrate the operation of an advanced reactor within 7 years of receiving the award. X-Energy’s advanced reactor concept, the Xe-100, was selected as one of two advanced reactor concepts to receive funding to demonstrate the operation of its high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor before the end of this decade. As a result of this push to bring advanced reactors to maturation and commercialization, transition and deployment scenario studies are being performed under the Systems Analysis and Integration (SA&I) campaign within the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to evaluate the transition of the current US commercial fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs) to a future fleet of advanced reactors consisting of a mix of ARDP type reactor concepts and advanced LWRs. To accurately evaluate the front- and back-end resource requirements, it is important to perform reactor physics calculations to determine the discharge burnup and isotopic content, fuel residence time, as well as other parameters. For this purpose, a summer project funded by the SA&I campaign allowed for the setup of SCALE models for full-core Xe-100 type high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor and a Xe-100 type slice using publicly available information. The core-averaged equilibrium compositions and zone-wise equilibrium compositions for the slice and 3D models, respectively, were obtained following an iterative depletion method developed by Bostelmann et al. using SCALE’s reactor physics sequence TRITON. The slice model was used with TRITON to generate burnup-dependent cross section libraries at different temperatures which can be used with SCALE’s ORIGAMI code to rapidly determine fuel inventory and therefore to perform quick sensitivity studies on parameters such as the pebble location in the core. The SCALE/TRITON transport and depletion calculation for the Xe-100 type slice model indicates that the isotopic concentrations are in good agreement at 1,300 effective full power days (EFPD) for 235 U. An analysis of 236 U results match 239 Pu results would seem to indicate a typographical error in Mulder and Boyes wherein the reported results of 236 U and 239 Pu are reversed. In addition to SCALE/TRITON calculations, a new capability within SCALE/ORIGAMI for the simulation of pebble-bed reactors was used to study the burnup sensitivity with respect to the pebble pathway through the core. The SCALE/ORIGAMI results show that pebbles that travel closer to the reflector for the entire depletion history have a higher burnup than pebbles that travel through the middle of the core because of the higher thermal to fast flux ratio near the reflector. Consequently, a pebble’s burnup is strongly affected by the pebble’s pathway for each pass. Additional phenomena such as temperature distributions in the core and different travel times of the pebbles in the individual radial zones further affect the burnup distribution. The sensitivity of the discharge vector to the pebble pathways taken during each pass can be evaluated in the future using SCALE/ORIGAMI now that the SCALE inputs have been established.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Petrography and preliminary interpretations of the crystalline breccias from the Manson M-1 core

The M-1 core was drilled on the eastern edge of the central uplift within the Manson Impact Structure in Iowa. The lower 107.9 m of the core consists of crystalline breccias. Twelve intervals of thin sections from this core have been studied for preliminary discussion. The breccias are divided into three units by matrix size and abundance. Unit 1 is characterized by a high volume fraction of matrix, and a decreasing proportion of matrix with depth. This matrix is nearly isotropic and consists of grains less than 0.005 to less than 0.02 mm in length. The matrix between 112 and 146 meters depth consists of a crystalline intergrowth of felsic and opaque minerals with or without chlorite. This was the hottest section of the core after impact, and may have undergone high temperature metamorphic recrystallization. Unit 2 is transitional between units 1 and 3, and is delineated by a rapid increase in grain size to .01-.04 mm and a decrease in matrix abundance to 10 percent. Unit 3 has a coarse, often porous matrix, whose abundance changes from about 10 percent at the top to about 2 percent at the base. Grain sizes range from 0.01-0.1 mm over this interval and coarsen with depth. Changes in the character of the matrix as well as the changes in clast lithology and abundance outlined below suggest that unit 3 is in-situ brecciated basement with injected melt and shale fragments; unit 1 is a crater veneer deposit consisting of transported basement materials and unit 2 is a mixed zone between units 1 and 3.

Bell, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Report on carbon and nitrogen abundance studies

The aim of the proposal was to determine the nitrogen to carbon abundance ratios from transition layer lines in stars with different T(sub eff) and luminosities. The equations which give the surface emission line fluxes and the measured ratio of the NV to CIV emission line fluxes are presented and explained. The abundance results are compared with those of photospheric abundance studies for stars in common with the photospheric investigations. The results show that the analyses are at least as accurate as the photospheric determinations. These studies can be extended to F and early G stars for which photospheric abundance determinations for giants are hard to do because molecular bands become too weak. The abundance determination in the context of stellar evolution is addressed. The N/C abundance ratio increases steeply at the point of evolution for which the convection zone reaches deepest. Looking at the evolution of the rotation velocities v sin i, a steep decrease in v sin i is related to the increasing depth of the convection zone. It is concluded that the decrease in v sin i for T(sub eff) less than or approximately = 5800 K is most probably due to the rearrangement of the angular momentum in the stars due to deep convective mixing. It appears that the convection zone is rotating with nearly depth independent angular momentum. Other research results and ongoing projects are discussed.

Boehm-Vitense, Erika↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molecular dynamics simulations of inelastic x-ray scattering from shocked copper

By taking the spatial and temporal Fourier transforms of the coordinates of the atoms in molecular dynamics simulations conducted using an embedded-atom-method potential, we calculate the inelastic scattering of x rays from copper single crystals shocked along [001] to pressures of up to 70 GPa. Above the Hugoniot elastic limit, we find that the copious stacking faults generated at the shock front introduce strong quasi-elastic scattering (QES) that competes with the inelastic scattering signal, which remains discernible within the first Brillouin zone; for specific directions in reciprocal space outside the first zone, the QES dominates the inelastic signal overwhelmingly. The synthetic scattering spectra we generate from our Fourier transforms suggest that energy resolutions of order 10 meV would be required to distinguish inelastic from quasi-elastic scattering within the first Brillouin zone of shock-loaded copper. We further note that high-resolution inelastic scattering also affords the possibility of directly measuring particle velocities via the Doppler shift. These simulations are of relevance to future planned inelastic scattering experiments at x-ray Free Electron Laser facilities.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS2021

Reviews and syntheses: Arctic fire regimes and emissions in the 21st century

In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70_ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2:5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65_ N are larger than emissions from heanthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60_ N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65_ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Markov Decision Process based Trajectory Planning for UAVs under Uncertain Wind Conditions

In this paper we propose a Markov Decision Process (MDP) algorithm for path-planning of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles (UAVs) under varying wind conditions. Solutions to path-planning for UAVs are becoming increasingly necessary as autonomous UAVs continue to enter commercial and government spaces. Path-planning is inherently challenging, as UAVs needs to account for dynamically changing flying conditions such as weather, obstacle or no-fly zones, degraded vehicle health and off-nominal battery power consumption. Machine learning methods such as Markov Decision Process (MDPs) have the potential to revolutionize how vehicles navigate in such uncertain environments. Previous papers have demonstrated the use of MDPs to optimize UAV path-planning for energy consumption under time-varying wind distribution. In this study, UAV trajectories from a pre-determined waypoint to target cell, will be computed on a 7X7 grid environment by optimizing parameters for mission assurance and safety limits in addition to the energy consumption, and operation time. The UAV navigates the grid by taking actions to move in either of the eight cardinal and intercardinal directions, under constant thrust profile. The next state of the UAV is calculated by considering its action, transition probability, obstacle cells and the wind speed magnitude and direction. Both constant and stochastic wind will be considered in this paper, the parameters being extracted from real wind measurements in proximity to an experimental UAV flight. One of the studies to be demonstrated in this paper is that as the unmanned airspace gets more complex with multiple vehicles and environmental uncertainties, trade-offs between energy consumption, operation time, risk tolerance, and mission assurance needs to be made. Further, MDPs are capable of fast computation of UAV trajectories under varying wind, hence making them suitable for in-flight path planners.

decision-making↗