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DOE OSTI2025

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

A matched-filter approach to radio variability and transients: searching for orphan afterglows in the VAST Pilot Survey

Radio transient searches using traditional variability metrics struggle to recover sources whose evolution time-scale is significantly longer than the survey cadence. Motivated by the recent observations of slowly evolving radio afterglows at gigahertz frequency, we present the results of a search for radio variables and transients using an alternative matched-filter approach. We designed our matched-filter to recover sources with radio light curves that have a high-significance fit to power-law and smoothly broken power-law functions; light curves following these functions are characteristic of synchrotron transients, including ‘orphan’ gamma-ray burst afterglows, which were the primary targets of our search. Applying this matched-filter approach to data from Variables and Slow Transients Pilot Survey conducted using the Australian SKA Pathfinder, we produced five candidates in our search. Subsequent Australia Telescope Compact Array observations and analysis revealed that: one is likely a synchrotron transient; one is likely a flaring active galactic nucleus, exhibiting a flat-to-steep spectral transition over 4 months; one is associated with a starburst galaxy, with the radio emission originating from either star formation or an underlying slowly evolving transient; and the remaining two are likely extrinsic variables caused by interstellar scintillation. The synchrotron transient, VAST J175036.1–181454, has a multifrequency light curve, peak spectral luminosity, and volumetric rate that is consistent with both an off-axis afterglow and an off-axis tidal disruption event; interpreted as an off-axis afterglow would imply an average inverse beaming factor $\langle f^{-1}_{\text{b}} \rangle = 860^{+1980}_{-710}$, or equivalently, an average jet opening angle of $\langle \theta _{\textrm {j}} \rangle = 3^{+4}_{-1}\,$ deg.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) Simulation Algorithm for Evaluation of Photovoltaic (PV) Generation Systems

Use of inverter-based resources facilitating renewable energy resources such as photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasing rapidly with decreasing costs and reduced emissions associated. To accommodate such rapid growth of inverter-based resources like PV systems, electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation models of both PV systems and grids are required to analyze the interaction of PVs in the grid (like the post-event analysis). In addition, the EMT simulation would help with the planning of future power grid with a large number of PVs as well as other inverter-based distributed generation systems. In this paper, the EMT simulation models of PV systems and grids are developed based on the differential algebraic equations (DAEs) representing their EMT dynamics. Furthermore, advanced simulation algorithms including numerical stiffness-based hybrid discretization, DAE clustering and aggregation, multi-order integration, and matrix splitting approaches are applied to accelerate the EMT simulation. The proposed algorithm was applied to 125 PV inverters within 52-bus medium-voltage (MV) distribution grid.

Choi, Jongchan↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Unified Model of Cosmic-Ray Propagation and Radio Extreme Scattering Events from Intermittent Interstellar Structures

Intermittent magnetic structures are a plausible candidate for explaining cosmic-ray (CR) diffusion rates derived from observed CR energy spectra. Independently, studies of extreme scattering events (ESEs) of radio quasars and pulsar scintillation have hinted that very straight, large aspect ratio magnetic current sheets may be responsible for the localized large scattering of radio waves. The required shortest axis of the typical structures producing ESEs is of the same scale (∼au) as the gyroradii of ∼GeV CRs. In this Letter, we propose that the same magnetic/density sheets can produce large scattering of both CRs and radio waves. We demonstrate that the geometry and volume-filling factor of the sheets derived from quasar ESEs can explain the observed mean free path of GeV CRs without introducing free parameters. The model places constraints on the sheet geometry, such as straightness and large aspect ratio, and assumes that the statistics of the sheets are similar throughout the Galactic volume. We therefore discuss observational tests of the sheet model, which includes observations of echoes in pulsars and fast radio bursts, gravitationally lensed quasars, the distribution of ESE durations, and spatial correlations between ESE events and rotation measure fluctuations. Such tests will be enabled by upcoming wide-field radio instruments, including the Canadian Hydrogen Observatory and Radio-transient Detector and Deep Synoptic Array 2000 Antennas.

Kempski, Philipp [Princeton Univ., NJ (United Stat↗

NASA NTRS1975

The sources of material comprising a mass ejection coronal transient

The origin of the material ejected during a white-light coronal transient on August 26 and 27, 1973, is investigated using simultaneous observations of a slowly ascending prominence and the more rapid accompanying coronal transient. Nearly identical simultaneous images of the prominence were obtained over a six-hour period in the H-alpha and He II (304 A) emission lines; contemporaneous Skylab coronograph observations over approximately 1.5 hours showed that the mass-ejection coronal transient rose above the ascending prominence. Based on analysis of these observations, it is concluded that: (1) the bulk of the ejected material originated in the lower corona, despite the lack of an observed depletion there; (2) the material in the transient was at coronal temperature and was visible in polarized radiation due to Thomson scattering of photospheric light by free electrons; and (3) the total event was far larger, more energetic, and longer lasting than would have been inferred from the prominence observations alone.

Hildner, E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

The HEAO A-1 all-sky survey of fast X-ray transients

Ten fast X-ray transient sources were discovered in the first complete pass of the sky by the HEAO A-1 Sky Survey Experiment, including 7 relatively faint sources and 3 bright ones. The survey technique and each of the transients are described. Four of the transients are identified with active coronal sources; the remaining ones are unidentified. The statistical properties of the total sample of 10 sources are discussed, including event rates, distribution on the sky, and the number-flux distribution.

Ambruster, Carol W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Gamma-Ray Burst Precursor Activity as Observed with BATSE

Gamma-ray burst time histories often consist of multiple episodes of emission with the count rate dropping to the background level between adjacent episodes. We define precursor activity as any case in which the first episode (referred to as the precursor episode) has a lower peak intensity than that of the remaining emission (referred to as the main episode) and is separated from the remaining burst emission by a background interval that is at least as long as the remaining emission. We find that approx. 3% of the bursts observed with the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) satisfy this definition. We present the results of a study of the properties of these events. The spatial distribution of these sources is consistent with that of the larger set of all BATSE gamma-ray bursts: inhomogeneous and isotropic. A correlation between the duration of the precursor emission and the duration of the main episode emission is observed at about the 3 sigma confidence level. We find no meaningful significant correlations between or among any of the other characteristics of the precursor or main episode emission. It appears that the characteristics of the main episode emission are independent of the existence of the precursor emission.

Koshut, Thomas M.↗

NASA NTRS2023

CLASS Observation of Polarized Cloud Emission at Millimeter Wavelengths

The dynamic atmosphere imposes challenges to ground-based cosmic microwave background observation, especially for measurements on large angular scales. The hydrometeors in the atmosphere, mostly in the form of clouds, scatter the ambient thermal radiation and are known to be the main linearly polarized source in the atmosphere. This scattering-induced polarization is significantly enhanced for ice clouds due to the alignment of ice crystals under gravity, which are also the most common clouds seen at the millimeter-astronomy sites at high altitudes. This work presents a multifrequency study of cloud polarization observed by the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor experiment on Cerro Toco in the Atacama Desert of northern Chile, from 2016–2022, at the frequency bands centered around 40, 90, 150, and 220 GHz. Using a machine-learning-assisted cloud classifier, we made connections between the transient polarized emission found in all four frequencies with the clouds imaged by monitoring cameras at the observing site. The polarization angles of the cloud events are found to be mostly 90° from the local meridian, which is consistent with the presence of horizontally aligned ice crystals. The90 and 150 GHz polarization data are consistent with a power law with a spectral index of 3.90±0.06, while an excess/deficit of polarization amplitude is found at 40/220 GHz compared with a Rayleigh scattering spectrum. These results are consistent with Rayleigh-scattering-dominated cloud polarization, with possible effects from supercooled water absorption and/or Mie scattering from a population of large cloud particles that contribute to the220 GHz polarization.

Earth's clouds↗

DOE OSTI2023

Interseismic Strain Accumulation between the Colorado Plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone: Implications for the Seismic Hazard near Las Vegas, Nevada

ABSTRACT Crustal deformation in the central Basin and Range between the Colorado plateau and the Eastern California Shear Zone is active but slow, making it a challenge to assess how strain is distributed and crustal motion transferred. However, knowledge of strain rates is very important, particularly for addressing the seismic hazard for both the Las Vegas urban area and the site of the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste repository, in southern Nevada. Global Positioning System (GPS) data provide important constraints, particularly now that the GPS network in the area has substantially expanded in recent years. However, because deformation is slow, it is important to mitigate any transient tectonic and nontectonic signals to obtain the most accurate long-term interseismic motion and robust estimation of strain rates. We use data from all GPS stations in the region including both long-running continuous and semicontinuous stations. We model and remove postseismic displacements at these stations using source parameters for 41 events, dating back to the 1700 Cascadia megathrust earthquake, which contribute significantly to the deformation field within the central Basin and Range. We also remove correlated noise from the time series with the common-mode component imaging technique. We find that removal of both the postseismic transients and common-mode noise substantially reduces the uncertainties and spatial variation in the velocities. We find east–west extension across the Las Vegas Valley of 0.5–0.6 mm/yr. The interseismic strain rate field, calculated with the final velocities, reveals higher strain rates through southern Nevada than in previous studies, with rates within Las Vegas Valley of 8.5±2.4×10−9 yr−1. Our results also confirm shear along the Pahranagat shear zone, but the estimated amplitude is strongly affected by postseismic relaxation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS1992

Melt production in large-scale impact events: Planetary observations and implications

Differences in scaling relationships for crater formation and the generation of impact melt should lead to a variety of observable features and phenomena. These relationships infer that the volume of the transient cavity (and final crater) relative to the volume of impact melt (and the depth to which melting occurs) decreases as the effects of gravity and impact velocity increase. Since planetary gravity and impact velocity are variables in the calculation of cavity and impact-melt volumes, the implications of the model calculation will vary between planetary bodies. Details of the model calculations of impact-melt generation as a function of impact and target physical conditions were provided elsewhere, as were attempts to validate the model through ground-truth data on melt volumes, shock attenuation, and morphology from terrestrial impact craters.

Cintala, Mark J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Optical and X-Ray Early Follow-Up of ANTARES Neutrino Alerts

High-energy neutrinos could be produced in the interaction of charged cosmic rays with matter or radiation surrounding astrophysical sources. Even with the recent detection of extraterrestrial high-energy neutrinos by the IceCube experiment, no astrophysical neutrinosource has yet been discovered. Transient sources, such as gamma-ray bursts, core-collapse supernovae, or active galactic nuclei are promising candidates. Multi-messenger programs offer a unique opportunity to detect these transient sources. By combining the information provided by the ANTARES neutrino telescope with information coming from other observatories, the probability of detecting a source is enhanced, allowing the possibility of identifyinga neutrino progenitor from a single detected event. A method based on optical and X-ray follow-ups of high-energy neutrino alerts has been developed within the ANTARES collaboration. This method does not require any assumptions on the relation between neutrino and photon spectra other than time-correlation. This program, denoted as TAToO, triggers a network of robotic optical telescopes (TAROTand ROTSE) and the Swift-XRT with a delay of only a few seconds after a neutrino detection, and is therefore well-suited to search for fast transient sources. To identify an optical or Xraycounterpart to a neutrino signal, the images provided by the follow-up observations areanalysed with dedicated pipelines. A total of 42 alerts with optical and 7 alerts with X-ray images taken with a maximum delay of 24 hours after the neutrino trigger have been analyzed. No optical or X-ray counterparts associated to the neutrino triggers have been found, and upper limits on transient source magnitudes have been derived. The probability to reject the gamma-ray burst origin hypothesis has been computed for each alert.

X-ray telescopes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Early photometric and spectroscopic observations of the extraordinarily bright INTEGRAL-detected GRB 221009A

Context. GRB 221009A, initially detected as an X-ray transient by Swift, was later revealed to have triggered the Fermi satellite about an hour earlier, marking it as a post-peak observation of the event’s emission. This GRB distinguished itself as the brightest ever recorded, presenting an unparalleled opportunity to probe the complexities of GRB physics. The unprecedented brightness, however, challenged observation efforts, as it led to the saturation of several high-energy instruments.Aims. Our study seeks to investigate the nature of the INTEGRAL-detected GRB 221009A and elucidate the environmental conditions conducive to these exceptionally powerful bursts. Moreover, we aim to understand the fundamental physics illuminated by the detection of teraelectronvolt (TeV) photons emitted by GRB 221009A.Methods. We conducted detailed analyses of early photometric and spectroscopic observations that span from the Fermi trigger through to the initial days following the prompt emission phase in order to characterize GRB 221009A’s afterglow, and we complemented these analyses with a comparative study.Results. Our findings from analyzing INTEGRAL data confirm GRB 221009A as the most energetic event observed to date. Early optical observations during the prompt phase negate the presence of bright optical emissions with internal or external shock origins. Spectroscopic analyses enabled us to measure GRB 221009A’s distance and line-of-sight properties. The afterglow’s temporal and spectral analysis suggests prolonged activity of the central engine and a transition in the circumburst medium’s density. Finally, we discuss the implications for fundamental physics of detecting photons as energetic as 18 TeV from GRB 221009A.Conclusions. Early optical observations have proven invaluable for distinguishing between the potential origins of optical emissions in GRB 221009A, underscoring their utility in GRB physics studies. However, the rarity of such data underscores the need for dedicated telescopes capable of synchronous multiwavelength observations. Additionally, our analysis suggests that the host galaxies of TeV GRBs share commonalities with those of long and short GRBs. Expanding the sample of TeV GRBs could further solidify these findings.Key words: techniques: photometric / techniques: spectroscopic / gamma-ray burst: general / gamma-ray burst: individual: GRB 221009A

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design of a Non-PLL Grid-Forming Inverter for Smooth Microgrid Transition Operation

This paper develops a controller for a grid-forming (GFM) inverter that is capable of operating as either a GFM or grid-feeding source that can improve the operation of a microgrid during on-off grid transitions through use of a novel synchronization approach. Furthermore, this controller avoids use of a phase-locked loop (PLL) and the inverter is able to synchronize with the grid with self-generated voltage and frequency. This prevents the inverter from replicating any grid voltage disturbances in its output—a key disadvantage of many grid-connected inverters that use a PLL. To enable fast synchronization, active synchronization control is adopted both during inverter start-up and microgrid reconnection operation and a method of coordinating synchronization of the inverter with a microgrid controller and grid interconnection circuit breaker is presented. Simulation results for multiple microgrid transition operations and unplanned islanding events demonstrate that the developed non-PLL grid-connected GFM inverter controller and synchronization method are effective in synchronizing the inverter and microgrid to the grid, avoiding phase jump during microgrid transition operation, and improving microgrid islanding transients versus a traditional configuration.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deep learning-driven insights into super protein complexes for outer membrane protein biogenesis in bacteria

To reach their final destinations, outer membrane proteins (OMPs) of gram-negative bacteria undertake an eventful journey beginning in the cytosol. Multiple molecular machines, chaperones, proteases, and other enzymes facilitate the translocation and assembly of OMPs. These helpers usually associate, often transiently, forming large protein assemblies. They are not well understood due to experimental challenges in capturing and characterizing protein-protein interactions (PPIs), especially transient ones. Using AF2Complex, we introduce a high-throughput, deep learning pipeline to identify PPIs within the Escherichia coli cell envelope and apply it to several proteins from an OMP biogenesis pathway. Among the top confident hits obtained from screening ~1500 envelope proteins, we find not only expected interactions but also unexpected ones with profound implications. Subsequently, we predict atomic structures for these protein complexes. These structures, typically of high confidence, explain experimental observations and lead to mechanistic hypotheses for how a chaperone assists a nascent, precursor OMP emerging from a translocon, how another chaperone prevents it from aggregating and docks to a β-barrel assembly port, and how a protease performs quality control. This work presents a general strategy for investigating biological pathways by using structural insights gained from deep learning-based predictions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Impacts in Ice: Commissions of Solar System Crater Populations

The classical phases of cratering are compression, excavation, and modification. Recent theory, however, supports and alternative sequence of physical events: (1) coupling - energy and momentum are transferred, and the cratering flow field is set up; (2) power-law-growth the flow field expands, with transient cavity dimensions expressible as a simple power law function of time; and (3) late phase - some combination of gravity, strength, and viscosity limits cavity growth, initially causing a deviation from power-law behavior and eventually determining the size and shape of the final (transient) crater. The dominant mechanism that limits cavity growth defines a cratering regime and a single variable, the coupling parameter, determines the scaling laws in the various regimes. The coupling parameter is intermediate in dimensionality between energy and momentum and its exact form is determined. For simple materials with rate and scale independent strength, the transition crater diameter between the strength and gravity regimes is, within reasonable bounds, independent of velocity. Even the smallest craters observed by Voyager appear to be gravity dominated.

Mckinnon, W. B.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Gamma ray burst source locations with the new interplanetary network

The celestial source fields of gamma ray bursts can now be determined with precision considerably greater than that provided by earlier interplanetary networks. A new burst timing array consists of the Ulysses mission and the Pioneer-Venus Orbiter at great distances and the Compton Observatory, Granat, and other burst-observing spacecraft near the Earth. With Ulysses providing a baseline approaching five astronomical units in its progress towards Jupiter, and given the timing resolution of the Compton Burst and Transient Source Experiment, source fields with dimensions as small as several arc seconds by less than one arc minute will be determined for many of the events to be studied within this network.

Cline, T. L.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Combined Space Environmental Exposure Tests of Multi-Junction GaAs/Ge Solar Array Coupons

A set of multi-junction GaAs/Ge solar array test coupons were subjected to a sequence of 5-year increments of combined environmental exposure tests. The purpose of this test program is to understand the changes and degradation of the solar array panel components, including its ESD mitigation design features in their integrated form, after multiple years (up to 15) of simulated geosynchronous space environment. These tests consist of: UV radiation, electrostatic discharge (ESD), electron/proton particle radiation, thermal cycling, and ion thruster plume exposures. The solar radiation was produced using a Mercury-Xenon lamp with wavelengths in the UV spectrum ranging from 230 to 400 nm. The ESD test was performed in the inverted-gradient mode using a low-energy electron (2.6 - 6 keV) beam exposure. The ESD test also included a simulated panel coverglass flashover for the primary arc event. The electron/proton radiation exposure included both 1.0 MeV and 100 keV electron beams simultaneous with a 40 keV proton beam. The thermal cycling included simulated transient earth eclipse for satellites in geosynchronous orbit. With the increasing use of ion thruster engines on many satellites, the combined environmental test also included ion thruster exposure to determine whether solar array surface erosion had any impact on its performance. Before and after each increment of environmental exposures, the coupons underwent visual inspection under high power magnification and electrical tests that included characterization by LAPSS, Dark I-V, and electroluminescence. This paper discusses the test objective, test methodologies, and preliminary results after 5 years of simulated exposure.

Hoang, Bao↗