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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

Measurement Uncertainty in One-of-a-kind Experiments

A golden standard in science is to repeat an experimental measurement multiple times and calculate the measured value with experimental uncertainty by following well developed statistical procedures. For various reasons – cost, technical difficulty, international treaties, ethics of dealing with human or animal subjects, ecology - many important experiments and observations can not be repeated. Astronomy, earthquakes, hurricanes produce data from one-of-a-kind events. When information is not available in any other way, it should not be dismissed as qualitative, anecdotal evidence only. Analyzed in a mathematically rigorous way, it produces quantitative experimental data. Analysis of data from one-of-a-kind event differs from analysis of repeated experiments’ data. For repeated experiments, the experimental error includes a range of true values generated by repetitions of the experiment, and measurement uncertainty caused by detectors. They are independent. Repetitions of any experiment, as similar as achievable, always have built-in differences resulting in a range of the true values rather than in a single value. Measurement uncertainty depends on the measurement system only. Digital measurements have very small uncertainty, frequently smaller than the range of true experimental values resulting from built-in differences in the experiment repetitions. When data from one–of–a kind experiment are analyzed, only the measurement uncertainty can be reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quality Assessment of Molten Salt Thermochemical Property Data

Recommendations are made to enhance user confidence in property values included in the Molten Salt Thermal Database-Thermochemical Properties (MSTDB-TC). Specifically, it is recommended that all available measured values be included with a transparent assessment of each to arrive at a preferred value for each salt composition in the database. The use of a quality assessment and ranking system is recommended for data and property values compiled in the MSTDB-TC that is analogous to the approach developed for data and property values included in the MSTDB-Thermophysical Properties (TP) database. The approach includes assessments of five features of data collection: the method used to measure the property value, calibration of devices used to make the measurements, the quantified uncertainty of the results, control of the environmental conditions, and determination of the salt composition. The quality of each facet is ranked as High, Moderate, or Incomplete based on objective metrics. The overall quality of the dataset is ranked based on rankings of the five data features and traceability of the reported property value, with rankings of A and B indicating the data and property value are deemed suitable for quantitative use, C indicating the value is computed and not validated and U indicating uncertainties restrict the recommended use to qualitative purposes. Sufficient information should be provided or cited within each data set included in the database to verify the reported property value. The recommended approach is suitable for assessing data already in the MSTDB-TC and screening new entries.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Improved Detection System Description and New Method for Accurate Calibration of Micro-Channel Plate Based Instruments and Its Use in the Fast Plasma Investigation on NASA's Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission

The Fast Plasma Investigation (FPI) on NASAs Magnetospheric MultiScale (MMS) mission employs 16 Dual Electron Spectrometers (DESs) and 16 Dual Ion Spectrometers (DISs) with 4 of each type on each of 4 spacecraft to enable fast (30 ms for electrons; 150 ms for ions) and spatially differentiated measurements of the full 3D particle velocity distributions. This approach presents a new and challenging aspect to the calibration and operation of these instruments on ground and in flight. The response uniformity, the reliability of their calibration and the approach to handling any temporal evolution of these calibrated characteristics all assume enhanced importance in this application, where we attempt to understand the meaning of particle distributions within the ion and electron diffusion regions of magnetically reconnecting plasmas. Traditionally, the micro-channel plate (MCP) based detection systems for electrostatic particle spectrometers have been calibrated using the plateau curve technique. In this, a fixed detection threshold is set. The detection system count rate is then measured as a function of MCP voltage to determine the MCP voltage that ensures the count rate has reached a constant value independent of further variation in the MCP voltage. This is achieved when most of the MCP pulse height distribution (PHD) is located at higher values (larger pulses) than the detection system discrimination threshold. This method is adequate in single-channel detection systems and in multi-channel detection systems with very low crosstalk between channels. However, in dense multi-channel systems, it can be inadequate. Furthermore, it fails to fully describe the behavior of the detection system and individually characterize each of its fundamental parameters. To improve this situation, we have developed a detailed phenomenological description of the detection system, its behavior and its signal, crosstalk and noise sources. Based on this, we have devised a new detection system calibration method that enables accurate and repeatable measurement and calibration of MCP gain, MCP efficiency, signal loss due to variation in gain and efficiency, crosstalk from effects both above and below the MCP, noise margin, and stability margin in one single measurement. More precise calibration is highly desirable as the instruments will produce higher quality raw data that will require less post-acquisition data correction using results from in-flight pitch angle distribution measurements and ground calibration measurements. The detection system description and the fundamental concepts of this new calibration method, named threshold scan, will be presented. It will be shown how to derive all the individual detection system parameters and how to choose the optimum detection system operating point. This new method has been successfully applied to achieve a highly accurate calibration of the DESs and DISs of the MMS mission. The practical application of the method will be presented together with the achieved calibration results and their significance. Finally, it will be shown that, with further detailed modeling, this method can be extended for use in flight to achieve and maintain a highly accurate detection system calibration across a large number of instruments during the mission.

detection system↗

Experimental evaluation of the certification-trail method

Certification trails are a recently introduced and promising approach to fault-detection and fault-tolerance. A comprehensive attempt to assess experimentally the performance and overall value of the method is reported. The method is applied to algorithms for the following problems: huffman tree, shortest path, minimum spanning tree, sorting, and convex hull. Our results reveal many cases in which an approach using certification-trails allows for significantly faster overall program execution time than a basic time redundancy-approach. Algorithms for the answer-validation problem for abstract data types were also examined. This kind of problem provides a basis for applying the certification-trail method to wide classes of algorithms. Answer-validation solutions for two types of priority queues were implemented and analyzed. In both cases, the algorithm which performs answer-validation is substantially faster than the original algorithm for computing the answer. Next, a probabilistic model and analysis which enables comparison between the certification-trail method and the time-redundancy approach were presented. The analysis reveals some substantial and sometimes surprising advantages for ther certification-trail method. Finally, the work our group performed on the design and implementation of fault injection testbeds for experimental analysis of the certification trail technique is discussed. This work employs two distinct methodologies, software fault injection (modification of instruction, data, and stack segments of programs on a Sun Sparcstation ELC and on an IBM 386 PC) and hardware fault injection (control, address, and data lines of a Motorola MC68000-based target system pulsed at logical zero/one values). Our results indicate the viability of the certification trail technique. It is also believed that the tools developed provide a solid base for additional exploration.

Sullivan, Gregory F.↗

Statistical correlation of structural mode shapes from test measurements and NASTRAN analytical values

The software and procedures of a system of programs used to generate a report of the statistical correlation between NASTRAN modal analysis results and physical tests results from modal surveys are described. Topics discussed include: a mathematical description of statistical correlation, a user's guide for generating a statistical correlation report, a programmer's guide describing the organization and functions of individual programs leading to a statistical correlation report, and a set of examples including complete listings of programs, and input and output data.

Purves, L.↗

Assessing Several Non-Traditional Data Sources for Value in Aviation Safety

The NASA System-Wide Safety (SWS) project and its predecessor projects have been developing Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for commercial aviation safety for many years. These algorithms have been applied to Flight Operations Quality Assurance (FOQA); radar track data (e.g., Threaded Track); and safety reports, including Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) and Aviation Safety Action Plan (ASAP). SWS is working with partners to get access to other data that air carriers provide, such as maintenance data, and has been assisting carriers in working with other data, such as Line Operations Safety Audit (LOSA) data, using manual methods. However, the project has discussed whether there are other data that are not traditionally used in aviation safety analysis that may be useful. This paper discusses four sets of data and models that are not traditionally used in aviation safety but that have shown promise for such use. In the future, we plan to incorporate such data into ML algorithms to use with data that we have used before and determine the additional benefit that is actually achieved under different contexts from the inclusion of these non-traditional data sources.

Nikunj C. Oza↗

Sampled data analysis of a computer-controlled manipulator

A comprehensive sampled data analysis of a computer-controlled manipulator is presented in terms of root loci for gain selection and transient responses to step input functions. All parameter values and their derivations where applicable were tabulated. The analysis, while quite specific, uses normalized gain parameters, which allows the results to be applied to any similar system regardless of individual hardware parameter values.

Markiewicz, B. R.↗

Construction of composite three dimensional grids from subregion grids generated by elliptic systems

A technique is presented for constructing a boundary-conforming grid throughout a general three-dimensional flow region as a composite of subregion grids. Each subregion grid is generated numerically by solving a nonlinear system of elliptic equations. The boundary values represent nodal points in a quasi-two-dimensional grid that covers the curved surface bounding the subregion, and are generated numerically by a modified elliptic system. A primary feature of the technique is that the composite three-dimensional grid remains both continuous and smooth across the surface of juncture between any two adjoining subregions. Sample results are given for a wing-body combination.

Thomas, P. D.↗

Pulse-train drive system for electrostatic generators and motors

A novel motor drive system has been described for use in electrostatic generator/motor systems based on the time variation of capacity of a rotating condenser comprised of segmented rotor and stator elements. It takes advantage of the fact that the motor action of such a system depends only on the rms value of the drive pulses, which therefore can be formed simply by periodically interrupting a high-frequency ac wave train. This new circuitry simplifies the drive system and takes advantage of recent developments of devices used in the art of inversion of dc voltages to high-frequency (tens of kiloHz) ac.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Time Evolution of Correlation Functions in Quantum Many-Body Systems

We give rigorous analytical results on the temporal behavior of two-point correlation functions—also known as dynamical response functions or Green’s functions—in closed many-body quantum systems. We show that in a large class of translation-invariant models the correlation functions factorize at late times $\langle$A ( t ) B$\rangle$ β → $\langle$ A$\rangle$ β $\langle$ B$\rangle$ β , thus proving that dissipation emerges out of the unitary dynamics of the system. We also show that for systems with a generic spectrum the fluctuations around this late-time value are bounded by the purity of the thermal ensemble, which generally decays exponentially with system size. For autocorrelation functions we provide an upper bound on the timescale at which they reach the factorized late time value. Remarkably, this bound is only a function of local expectation values and does not increase with system size. We give numerical examples that show that this bound is a good estimate in nonintegrable models, and argue that the timescale that appears can be understood in terms of an emergent fluctuation-dissipation theorem. Our study extends to further classes of two point functions such as the symmetrized ones and the Kubo function that appears in linear response theory, for which we give analogous results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Dynamic, resilient sensing system for automatic cyber-attack neutralization

An industrial asset may have monitoring nodes that generate current monitoring node values. An abnormality detection computer may determine that an abnormal monitoring node is currently being attacked or experiencing fault. A dynamic, resilient estimator constructs, using normal monitoring node values, a latent feature space (of lower dimensionality as compared to a temporal space) associated with latent features. The system also constructs, using normal monitoring node values, functions to project values into the latent feature space. Responsive to an indication that a node is currently being attacked or experiencing fault, the system may compute optimal values of the latent features to minimize a reconstruction error of the nodes not currently being attacked or experiencing a fault. The optimal values may then be projected back into the temporal space to provide estimated values and the current monitoring node values from the abnormal monitoring node are replaced with the estimated values.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development and Validation of an Automated Simulation Capability in Support of Integrated Demand Management

Integrated Demand Management (IDM) is a near- to mid-term NASA concept that proposes to address mismatches in air traffic system demand and capacity by using strategic flow management capabilities to pre-condition demand into the more tactical Time-Based Flow Management System (TBFM). This paper describes an automated simulation capability to support IDM concept development. The capability closely mimics existing human-in-the-loop (HITL) capabilities, automating both the human components and collaboration between operational systems, and speeding up the real-time aircraft simulations. Such a capability allows for parametric studies that will inform the HITL simulations, identifying breaking points and parameter values at which significant changes in system behavior occur. This paper also describes the initial validation of individual components of the automated simulation capability, and an example application comparing the performance of the IDM concept under two TBFM scheduling paradigms. The results and conclusions from this simulation compare closely to those from previous HITL simulations using similar scenarios, providing an initial validation of the automated simulation capability.

Integrated Demand Management↗

Using Maxwell's Demon to Tame the "Devil in the Details" that are Encountered During System Development

Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is the formalized application of modeling to support system requirements, design, analysis, verification and validation activities beginning in the conceptual design phase and continuing throughout development and later life cycle phases . This presentation will discuss the value proposition that MBSE has for Systems Engineering, and the associated culture change needed to adopt it.

Model Based Systems Engineering↗

Experimental Investigation of Pool Boiling Heat Transfer Enhancement in Microgravity in the Presence of Electric Fields

In boiling high heat fluxes are possible driven by relatively small temperature differences, which make its use increasingly attractive in aerospace applications. The objective of the research is to develop ways to overcome specific problems associated with boiling in the low gravity environment by substituting the buoyancy force with the electric force to enhance bubble removal from the heated surface. Previous studies indicate that in terrestrial applications nucleate boiling heat transfer can be increased by a factor of 50, as compared to values obtained for the same system without electric fields. The goal of our research is to experimentally explore the mechanisms responsible for EHD heat transfer enhancement in boiling in low gravity conditions, by visualizing the temperature distributions in the vicinity of the heated surface and around the bubble during boiling using real-time holographic interferometry (HI) combined with high-speed cinematography. In the first phase of the project the influence of the electric field on a single bubble is investigated. Pool boiling is simulated by injecting a single bubble through a nozzle into the subcooled liquid or into the thermal boundary layer developed along the flat heater surface. Since the exact location of bubble formation is known, the optical equipment can be aligned and focused accurately, which is an essential requirement for precision measurements of bubble shape, size and deformation, as well as the visualization of temperature fields by HI. The size of the bubble and the frequency of bubble departure can be controlled by suitable selection of nozzle diameter and mass flow rate of vapor. In this approach effects due to the presence of the electric field can be separated from effects caused by the temperature gradients in the thermal boundary layer. The influence of the thermal boundary layer can be investigated after activating the heater at a later stage of the research. For the visualization experiments a test cell was developed. All four vertical walls of the test cell are transparent, and they allow transillumination with laser light for visualization experiments by HI. The bottom electrode is a copper cylinder, which is electrically grounded. The copper block is heated with a resistive heater and it is equipped with 6 thermocouples that provide reference temperatures for the measurements with HI. The top electrode is a mesh electrode. Bubbles are injected with a syringe into the test cell through the bottom electrode. The working fluids presently used in the interferometric visualization experiments, water and PF 5052, satisfy requirements regarding thermophysical, optical and electrical properties. A 30kV power supply equipped with a voltmeter allows to apply the electric field to the electrodes during the experiments. The magnitude of the applied voltage can be adjusted either manually or through the LabVIEW data acquisition and control system connected to a PC. Temperatures of the heated block are recorded using type-T thermocouples, whose output is read by a data acquisition system. Images of the bubbles are recorded with 35mm photographic and 16mm high-speed cameras, scanned and analyzed using various software packages. Visualized temperature fields HI allows the visualization of temperature fields in the vicinity of bubbles during boiling in the form of fringes. Typical visualized temperature distributions around the air bubbles injected into the thermal boundary layer in PF5052 are shown. The temperature of the heated surface is 35 C. The temperature difference for a pair of fringes is approximately 0.05 C. The heat flux applied to the bottom surface is moderate, and the fringe patterns are regular. In the image a bubble penetrating the thermal boundary layer is visible. Because of the axial symmetry of the problem, simplified reconstruction techniques can be applied to recover the temperature field. The thermal plume developing above the heated surface for more intensive heating is shown. The temperature distribution in the liquid is clearly 3D, and tomographic techniques have to be applied to recover the temperature distribution in such a physical situation. A sequence of interferometric images showing the temperature distribution around the rising bubble, recorded with a high-speed camera is shown. Again, the temperature distribution is 3D, and a more complex approach to the evaluation, the tomographic reconstruction has to be taken. Measurement of the temperature distribution from the fringe pattern temperature distributions that yield important information regarding heat transfer are determined. Two algorithms that allow the quantitative evaluation of interferometric fringe patterns and the reconstruction of temperature fields during boiling have been developed at the Heat Transfer Laboratory of the Johns Hopkins University. In the first algorithm the bubble is assumed to be axially symmetrical, which significantly reduces the computational effort for quantifying the temperature distribution around the bubble. For this purpose the thermal boundary layer around the bubble is divided into equidistant concentric shells, and the refractive index is assumed to be constant in each of the shells. Since large temperature gradients are expected in the vicinity of the bubble during boiling, the deflection of the light beam cannot be neglected in boiling experiments. Since the exit angle of the light beam is known, this allows to account for the deflections and phase shifts outside the boundary layer (in the bulk fluid and in the windows of the test cell). Three dimensional temperature distributions in the vicinity of the bubble are reconstructed using tomographic techniques. In tomography, the measurement volume is sliced into 2D planes. In the present study these planes are parallel to the heated surface. The objective is to determine the values of the field parameter of interest in form of the field function in these 2D planes. The field parameter is the change of the refractive index of the liquid in the measurement volume caused by temperature changes. By superimposing data for many 2D planes recorded at the same time instant, the 3D temperature distribution in the measurement volume is recovered.

Herman, Cila↗

Dynamic Behavior of Natural Seep Vents: Analysis of Field and Laboratory Observations and Modeling (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

In this project, we have analyzed data collected by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) in a high pressure water tunnel (HPWT) and data from two research cruises to natural seeps in the Gulf of Mexico to adapt and validate a numerical model to predict the dynamics of natural seeps in the deep oceans. The HPWT data include video observations of the shrinkage rate of individual methane and natural gas bubbles under simulated deep-water conditions. Field data were collected during two cruises by the Gulf Integrated Spill Research (GISR) Consortium led by Texas A&M University and funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI). These data included in situ observations from a remotely operated vehicle (ROV) of gas bubbles at two natural seep sites in the Gulf and acoustic observations of the natural seep bubble flares in the ocean water column. The acoustic data were from multibeam echosounders, one mounted in a forward-looking orientation on the ROV and another mounted down-looking in the haul of the ship. All of these laboratory and field data were focused on the dynamics of natural gas bubbles at temperatures and pressures favorable for clathrate hydrate formation between the gas and water. Our analyses of this data focused on understanding the mechanisms responsible for gas bubble dissolution within the hydrate stability zone (HSZ) of the oceans. Ice-like hydrate shells may form on the bubble-water interface under these conditions, and it was unknown how this might affect the mass transfer of gas into the ocean. We were able to extract bubble shrinkage rates from the HPWT datasets. Using this data we determined that mass transfer coefficients with and without a hydrate shell match empirical values for bubbles in contaminated systems (so-called dirty bubbles contaminated by naturally occurring surfactants). We also showed that free gas, and not gas hydrate, is the dominant dissolving phase when the hydrate sub-cooling is below 11 degree Celsius (temperature difference between hydrate the hydrate formation temperature and ambient temperator) or the pressure is reducing as bubbles rise through the ocean water column. Using this mass transfer model, our numerical model of bubble dissolution matched the over 200 HPWT experiments with an average error of 10% for predicting the bubble size at the end of an experiment. From field data in the literature, we also observed that gas bubbles dissolve faster when they are initially released, following mass transfer coefficients for so-called clean-bubbles (those not yet contaminated by surfactants). Shortly after release within the HSZ, a hydrate shell forms on the bubble-water interface, and the mass transfer reduces to rates matching those of dirty bubbles. We correlated this transition time from clean to dirty bubble behavior with the initial bubble surface area and the hydrate sub-cooling. With this model for hydrate formation time and using the mass transfer coefficients deduced from the HPWT data, we validated our numerical model for predicting the rise heights of natural seep flares in the oceans. Flare heights are commonly observed in haul-mounted acoustic multibeam data. The numerical model predicts bubbles to rise high in the ocean water column owing to the slower mass transfer rates for dirty bubbles that accompany the majority of their rise time. We found that the numerical model predictions matched the observed flare heights within 5% to 10% accuracy when we compared the rise heights of the largest bubbles released from the seafloor with the bubbles acoustically visible in the multibeam data. Bubbles become acoustically transparent as they shrink to sizes of order 1 mm in diameter for the multibeam frequencies used in the field. The forward-looking multibeam on the ROV also provided data on the lateral spreading of bubbles in natural seep flares. Our analysis of this data showed that spreading follows a diffusion process, with the effective diffusivity correlating with the wobbling length scale of these ellipsoidal bubbles. When we apply this diffusivity in a random displacement model of bubble spreading, our numerical simulations match closely the lateral spread observed by the M3 in the ocean water column. Finally, we compared the seep model predictions for the acoustic properties of these natural seep plumes with that observed by the acoustic instruments in the field. The M3 and EM 302 observations were converted to relative values of target strength using a calibration we obtained in the laboratory for the M3 and using an algorithm from the manufacturer for the EM 302. Comparing the numerical seep model to these data, we obtain good agreement over the whole height of rise of these bubble flares. This further validates the numerical model. Overall, our validated seep model captures the key dynamics of gas bubbles released from natural seeps in the oceans and helps to predict the fate of methane in the water column.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Modeling of hydrogen liquefaction using magnetocaloric cycles with permanent magnets

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is promising alternative to replace fossil fuels, but its transport and storage has been challenging. As H 2 fuel cell vehicles are gaining traction, the infrastructure for storing large amounts of liquid H 2 is needed. However, liquid H 2 would suffer from boil-off loss, and traditional vapor compression refrigeration systems would not be able to economically recover the lost H 2 due to the low efficiencies at cryogenic temperature. Magnetocaloric (MC) refrigeration systems could possess much higher coefficient of performance (COP) at cryogenic temperature compared to the vapor compression ones. Previous work on cryogenic MC systems, however, have only focused on large scale applications which use superconducting magnets to provide a large magnetic field but are prohibitively expensive to operate for small scale applications, such as that of a H 2 refilling station. In this work, we model the performance of a MC refrigeration cycle using 1-Tesla permanent magnets for H 2 liquefaction, with the objective of cooling H 2 from 80 K (using liquid nitrogen as the heat sink) to 20 K (boiling point of hydrogen). We evaluate main performance metrics including the total work input to the refrigeration system, COP, total MCM mass in the system, and total volume of the permanent magnets, etc. Our modeling results indicate that such a permanent magnet-based MC cooling system is feasible for small-scale H 2 liquefaction, with projected COP values significantly higher than those of vapor compression systems. In conclusion, this work provides design guidelines for future experimental efforts on permanent magnet MC cooling systems for cryogenic cooling.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A consensus mathematical model of vaccine-induced antibody dynamics for multiple vaccine platforms and pathogens

Introduction: Vaccine platforms used in successful, licensed vaccines have varied among pathogens. However, antibody level is still the main clinical correlate of protection in most approved vaccines. Decisions as to the best vaccine platform to pursue for a given pathogen may be informed through improved understanding of the process of antibody generation and its temporal dynamics, as well as the relationship between these processes and the type of vaccine. Methods: We have analyzed the dynamics of antibody generation for different vaccine platforms against diverse pathogens, and developed a consensus mathematical model that captures antibody dynamics across these diverse systems. Initially, the model was fitted to a rich dataset of antibody and immune cell concentrations in a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine experiment. We then used concepts from machine learning, such as transfer learning, to apply the same model to a variety of systems, involving different pathogens, vaccine platforms, and booster dose use/timing, fixing most parameter values relating to the dynamics of the immune system. Results: The model includes B cell proliferation and differentiation, as well as the generation of plasma cells, which secrete large amounts of antibody, and memory B cells. Overall, the model describes antibody generation in all systems tested well and shows that the main differences across platforms are related to the dynamics of antigen presentation. Discussion: This model can be used to predict antibody generation in pairs of vaccine platform/pathogen, allowing for the use of in silico results to narrow down experimental burden in vaccine development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗